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Who is the favorite in the NFC post draft? (1 Viewer)

Riversco

Riversco

Footballguy
A list of possibles in no particular order:

Cowboys - Added a very nice DE who should be good vs the run and could be a prize pass rusher.  Also added two CBs.  The Cowboys had the 4th easiest schedule in 2016.

Falcons - Traded up for a edge guy who should make their front 7 even better.  Also took a couple DBs who don't figure to start.

Seahawks - Trade down a bunch of times, then got an edge guy who could be incredible if he didn't take plays off but Pete Carroll is a legend at getting the max outta those types of players.  They filled a need on the OL and then grabbed 3 players for the secondary.  Seattle has the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFC in 2017.  

Packers - They traded out of the first round with the Browns and had the first pick in round 2.  They used both 2nd rounders on the secondary to help fix problems that glared in their loss to the Falcons.  They also added a couple pieces to the front 7 rotation and got a running back in round 4.  The Packers had the easiest schedule in 2016.

Cardinals - Added even more versatile players to the defense with a LB and S. They had atrocious special teams which cost them several games and didn't seem to address that here.  However, their 2017 is considerably easier than any other contender in the NFC outside of the Seahawks.

My view: I felt the Seahawks pass rush really was key for them, and I think they've got a guy who is really going to help a lot, plus they have such an easy schedule that I think Seattle wins the #1 seed this year and wins the NFC.

 
I think Atlanta regresses.....No Shanahan and superbowl hang over.

I think you left out a great candidate....the NEW YORK GIANTS - absolutely loaded on offense (sans RB). and a defense that was really improved last year and could finally gel this year

I think Seattle should win that division...but their D isn't as formidable and the Oline is still pretty terrible. they had 11 draft picks and only took two Olinemen?

The Packers look to be the team to beat IMO they added some good Defensive parts in the draft and RB depth which was needed

I think Dak will be exposed for the average player he is.

Don't count out a rebound for Carolina

 
I'm not getting it with SEA.  they had the worst o-line in the league and all they added were 2 replacement level OTs in FA and a 2nd round G/C.  It's very possible the O-line will actually be worse.  Just can't see them as a legit contender being so bad up front.

 
Bronco Billy said:
I'm not getting it with SEA.  they had the worst o-line in the league and all they added were 2 replacement level OTs in FA and a 2nd round G/C.  It's very possible the O-line will actually be worse.  Just can't see them as a legit contender being so bad up front.
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I think they really banked on signing TJ Lang. Also, wasn't Cam Robinson available when they took McDowell? Risky move. 

 
I think Green Bay should be the favorite.  Never count out A-Rodg and the offense is prolific and they have another year to figure out how to use Ty Montgomery.  Adding Martellus Bennett was a nice move and their top 4 pick were Defensive.

Dallas had a pretty nice top-of-draft but also lost tons of experience to free agency and lost Gregory to the reefer-man.  I'm not sure Dak can do much more than last year and WRs not called Dez still suck.

Atlanta had a nice run last year but it's hard to get back there especially after their losing Offensive Coordinator.  They are certainly talented enough and added Takk.

I think Seattle could be okay but they did nothing much to improve an O-Line held together by chicken wire but if Fat Eddy gets a little beast mode maybe they can run block better than they pass block!  If Russell Wilson is healthy and can run again, he scares the crap out of most defenses. 

I think Arizona's run may be over.  They picked up 2 stud defenders in Haasan Reddick and Budda Baker but I'm not sure what Carson Palmer has left.  

 
Packers and Giants are my odds on picks but the Bucs are my sleeper.  The NFC south should be almost as tough as the east. 

 
The Packers are obviously the leaders. The Eagles probably got 3 starters on D and with Wentz and Schwartz in their second year they're my homer sleeper pick. 

 
In 2016, the Dallas Cowboys won HFA and had SoS of .465

In 2015, the Panthers won HFA and had a SoS of .434

In 2014, the Seahawks won it with a SoS of .561

In 2013, the Seahawks won it with .516

In 2012, the Falcons won HFA with a SoS of .488

In 2011, the 49ers won HFA with a SoS of .465

In 2010, the Falcons won HFA with a SoS of .496

A weak SoS is pretty much a requirement for the #1 seed in the NFC (unless you are Seattle).  Seattle is an interesting case.  They have had BRUTAL SoS in recent years that likely has caused people to underestimate their success.  

Seattle SoS by year:

2010: .453

2011: .488

2012: .504

2013: .516

2014: .561

2015: .559

2016: .543

2017: .455

Seattle has almost the easiest schedule in the entire NFC in 2017 and their easiest schedule in 8 years. Whatever you think of Seattle, keep in mind they have had one of the toughest schedules in the entire NFL for 3 straight years.  Seattle may have lfaws, but it will get masked by that schedule this year.

 
Seattle might lose @ Packers, @ Giants, one of the Cardinals games, and that's it.  They should beat the Cowboys in Dallas.  They should beat the Falcons since that is in Seattle.  The rest of the opponents are weak.  13-3.  Noone will go into Seattle and beat them either so they'll win the NFC.

 
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Riversco said:
Seattle might lose @ Packers, @ Giants, one of the Cardinals games, and that's it.  They should beat the Cowboys in Dallas.  They should beat the Falcons since that is in Seattle.  The rest of the opponents are weak.  13-3.  Noone will go into Seattle and beat them either so they'll win the NFC.
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playing the AFC South sure does have its advantages

 
Seahawks OL:

LT:  Luke Joeckel - yikes!  Fant might step in here at some point but he's another question mark

LG: Mark Glowinski - yikes!  I think Aboushi takes his job this year and then its not as bad.  

C Justin Britt - a good center

RG Ethan Pocic - Big Upgrade

RT Germain Ifedi - meh - they let Gillam go to the 49ers who played well

I think the Seahawks plan is that Aboushi will eventually either start at LG or RT.  They probably are hoping one of them work out, not expecting both.  The Joeckel signing might say they think the window to win is now so they got foolish with the money.  They probably see what I see, that the opportunity to win the #1 seed is there so they just get a high priced FA. The Seahawks also hope Fant beats out Joeckel, then they move Joeckel to LG, Glow is a backup G, Pocic should do well in their blocking scheme.  

Its a good point though that the OL for Seattle is bad.

 
It's often someone no one is talking about.

Homer pick to tab the Saints, but: I am thinking that 2017-18 for Drew Brees is going to be analogous to John Elway's 1997-98. With better health, the Saints defense will be ranked no worse than the low 20s ... and vaulting up to ~10th-to-12th-ranked wouldn't be a crazy shocker.

In the division, I am much more concerned with the reloading Buccaneers than the Falcons and Panthers. Getting to nine wins after that Super Bowl would be a huge win for Atlanta.

 
Nobody has mentioned it, but I'm taking a different tack here: Tampa Bay

They are assembling an offensive juggernaut- Winston has shown tremendous growth, Evans is an absolute beast, DeSean is a perfect compliment, and OJ Howard will be a pro bowl caliber player in the very near future. I know there is uncertainty at RB and the defense is mediocre. 

I think they outscore everyone and win a tightly bunched NFC- where there is no great team.

 
Riversco said:
Seattle might lose @ Packers, @ Giants, one of the Cardinals games, and that's it.  They should beat the Cowboys in Dallas.  They should beat the Falcons since that is in Seattle.  The rest of the opponents are weak.  13-3.  Noone will go into Seattle and beat them either so they'll win the NFC.
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Seattle certainly could win that game but "should" seems a stretch. 

Ack88 said:
Nobody has mentioned it, but I'm taking a different tack here: Tampa Bay

They are assembling an offensive juggernaut- Winston has shown tremendous growth, Evans is an absolute beast, DeSean is a perfect compliment, and OJ Howard will be a pro bowl caliber player in the very near future. I know there is uncertainty at RB and the defense is mediocre. 

I think they outscore everyone and win a tightly bunched NFC- where there is no great team.
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The Bucs have been mentioned twice already. 

-OZ- said:
Packers and Giants are my odds on picks but the Bucs are my sleeper.  The NFC south should be almost as tough as the east. 
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-OZ- said:
Packers and Giants are my odds on picks but the Bucs are my sleeper.  The NFC south should be almost as tough as the east. 
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NFC south could literally end in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.  Seems like its been that way for a decade or so.

 
Slider said:
Barnett, Douglas and Qualls probably all start.
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I don't know if Barnett starts, per se, though obviously will get a lot of work.  Douglas has a chance by default, but doubtful he will have a major impact.  Qualls has almost no chance to start.  In any event, I really doubt that those defensive additions will have all that much cumulative impact this year.  The biggest hope is that Barnett really can make a seamless transition and be very disruptive in the pass rush.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I don't know if Barnett starts, per se, though obviously will get a lot of work.  Douglas has a chance by default, but doubtful he will have a major impact.  Qualls has almost no chance to start.  In any event, I really doubt that those defensive additions will have all that much cumulative impact this year.  The biggest hope is that Barnett really can make a seamless transition and be very disruptive in the pass rush.
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Jernigan.  He was, more or less, a product of this draft. 

 
There is team hosting the Super Bowl this year that apparently no one thinks has a chance which is usually when the team does well.

 
Biabreakable said:
There is team hosting the Super Bowl this year that apparently no one thinks has a chance which is usually when the team does well.
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The streak of super bowl hosts not playing is almost a lock to continue. I thought the Vikings had a chance last year but it would be a shock for them to make it now. 

Looking forward to 18' of snow around the game. 

 
I wouldn't go with strength of schedule as any type of indicator. See here:

2016 Preseason SoS vs Actual SoS

In fact for many teams, if they have what is considered a good pre-season SoS it is very possible they have a hard schedule.

 
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Doug B said:
Homer pick to tab the Saints, but: I am thinking that 2017-18 for Drew Brees is going to be analogous to John Elway's 1997-98. With better health, the Saints defense will be ranked no worse than the low 20s ... and vaulting up to ~10th-to-12th-ranked wouldn't be a crazy shocker.
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This must be what they keep thinking on Airline. And really as often the Saints weren't many points from the playoffs.

Ack88 said:
Nobody has mentioned it, but I'm taking a different tack here: Tampa Bay

They are assembling an offensive juggernaut- Winston has shown tremendous growth, Evans is an absolute beast, DeSean is a perfect compliment, and OJ Howard will be a pro bowl caliber player in the very near future. I know there is uncertainty at RB and the defense is mediocre. 

I think they outscore everyone and win a tightly bunched NFC- where there is no great team.
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Unfortunately this is nagging me. I don't think the Bucs 'outscore everyone' but they could be a very balanced team.

 
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pbandy1 said:
I wouldn't go with strength of schedule as any type of indicator. See here:

2016 Preseason SoS vs Actual SoS

In fact for many teams, if they have what is considered a good pre-season SoS it is very possible they have a hard schedule.
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Nice.  Thanks for posting this.  I've been trying to educate people on this board for years about how little predictive power prior SoS has......yet we keep hearing the same drivel every year about which team has a favorable schedule.

 
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Pipes said:
I can't like this enough.  Teams change so much each year using strength of schedule based on last years results is stupid.
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But why?  I used the preseason SoS for each year and (outside of those two seahawks years) teams with weak preseason SoS captured the #1 seed.

 
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Doug B said:
...the Saints defense will be ranked no worse than the low 20s ... and vaulting up to ~10th-to-12th-ranked wouldn't be a crazy shocker.
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I would be shocked. For that matter it would be surprising to me if they finished in the low 20's. Lattimore was a GREAT pick but this team has finished 31, 32, and 28 in defense the past three seasons. Tampa and CAR just added major pieces to their offense and ATL had the best offense in the NFL so Lattimore has his work cut out for him.

I have seen Te'o play. You'd be better off with the imaginary girlfriend.

 
Top 5 in Vegas right now


Dallas Cowboys


5/1


Atlanta Falcons


6/1


Seattle Seahawks


6/1


Green Bay Packers


13/2


New York Giants


10/1

 
Anarchy99 said:
For a team said to be so loaded on offense, the Giants ranked 26th in scoring last year. 
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The Giants O-Line is terrible and wasn't addressed. They have Ereck Flowers at left tackle. I know McAdoo runs a West Coast but Eli got a five- or seven-step drop so rarely.

 
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BoltBacker said:
I have seen Te'o play. You'd be better off with the imaginary girlfriend.
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Te'o is not expected to start and is not even a lock for the final roster ... strictly a kick-the-tires deal. He's not going to be the difference maker.

Part of the expectation for a marked defensive increase is the fact that the Saints lost so many starters to injury last season. The team was starting street free agents at CB much of the season, and was at backups and third-stringers throughout the front seven. Yeah, "every team has injuries" ... but it was pretty extreme for the Saints' D last season.

 
Anarchy99 said:
For a team said to be so loaded on offense, the Giants ranked 26th in scoring last year. 
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well they added Brandon Marshall, Evan Engram and Sheppard enters year 2... Maybe a healthy Vereen and Gallman add some punch at RB. not exactly the same offense.

 
Doug B said:
Te'o is not expected to start and is not even a lock for the final roster ... strictly a kick-the-tires deal. He's not going to be the difference maker.

Part of the expectation for a marked defensive increase is the fact that the Saints lost so many starters to injury last season. The team was starting street free agents at CB much of the season, and was at backups and third-stringers throughout the front seven. Yeah, "every team has injuries" ... but it was pretty extreme for the Saints' D last season.
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Ah, I see your reasoning. I was a fan of both PJ Wiliams and Rankins coming out of college and they should certainly help but they barely had rookie seasons. Seems like quite a few guys just aren't living up to their draft status though even if they are healthy. Not sure if it's reasonable to expect Kikaha to ever be the same player after his 3rd tear on the same ACL. 

I was just going by FBG depth charts that list Te'o over Anzalone and Stupar. After you said that I noticed other sites have Klein penciled in as the starting MLB. 

 
GB,Seattle, Cowboys, Atlanta in that order. None of these teams have a prayers chance in beating NE/PITT. These are the 2 best teams in the AFC and the NFL. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
For a team said to be so loaded on offense, the Giants ranked 26th in scoring last year. 
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That's because Eli Manning is a turnover machine the like the NFL has never seen other than Tony Banks. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
:lol:

In fairness, we have seen some really promising rookie years by QBs fizzle into really poor careers in recent years.  It's not like it's unpossible.
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I just hope this isn't the case with him. I have not been this emotionally invested in a player since Emmitt Smith retired.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
For a team said to be so loaded on offense, the Giants ranked 26th in scoring last year. 
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Just for ha-ha's, I decided to look up how many teams made a significant jump in scoring from one year to the next in the recent NFL. I defined significant as 100 points or more on the season, and I considered all seasons since 2000. I am not sure exactly what I was expecting, but I found there were more times a team improved by +100 points than I would have thought. It happened 50 times in 16 seasons . . . so roughly 3 times each year. I haven't looked any closer as to WHY those teams improved that much offensively in a single season, and I might look into that more when I have time.

Largest single season scoring jumps since 2000:

Code: 
KCC 2013	219
OAK 2010	213
CAR 2011	210
NEP 2007	204
ATL 2016	201
ARI 2015	179
NOS 2006	178
DEN 2012	172
GBP 2011	172
DEN 2000	171
CHI 2006	167
CLE 2007	164
NOS 2011	163
PHI 2013	162
CAR 2015	161
BUF 2004	152
WAS 2012	148
KCC 2002	147
DAL 2016	146
CAR 2008	137
NYJ 2008	137
GBP 2007	134
LAC 2004	133
ATL 2008	132
LAR 2003	131
ARI 2013	129
JAX 2015	127
DEN 2013	125
CLE 2001	124
TBB 2007	123
CHI 2001	122
SFO 2008	120
NYG 2005	119
WAS 2005	119
TBB 2000	118
OAK 2007	115
BUF 2002	114
IND 2012	114
LAR 2010	114
DET 2011	112
ATL 2002	111
BAL 2008	110
LAR 2012	106
OAK 2015	106
NYJ 2015	104
TBB 2012	102
CIN 2009	101
DAL 2006	100
JAX 2005	100
MIN 2002	100
 
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