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hotboyz

Help settle strategy argument

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I'm having a discussion on twitter and I'm being told I'm crazy. When I prepare for drafts I kinda like to look at all case scenarios, I wanna ask you guys if you're in a 12 tm ppr redraft and you came out of the 1st 3 Rds with David Johnson Gronk and Brady assuming all are healthy how good do you think ya chances would be at making the playoffs?

My argument with this start you could pencil this owner in for the playoffs esp if he's experienced and knows what he's doing

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Not a strategy I would use, but with good management during the season most teams can make the playoffs.

David Johnson is a fine way to start the draft, no concerns here.

With Gronks health, I would need to have a quality backup.  I would rather wait a few rounds and take Olson or similar.  With Olsen, I will only use one spot on TE and go to the wire for bye weeks or injury.

I am a huge fan of Brady for fantasy.  He won me a few leagues last year.  The difference is he was a mid round pick or later due to the suspension.   I would rather have a RB/WR with that pick and get a quality QB starter much later in the draft. 

I would not like the quality or depth of by RB/WRs in the scenario of Gronk and Brady drafted in the top 3 rounds.

BJB

 

 

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In order for this to happen you have to pick 1st or 2nd I assume.  That means Gronk fell to the late 2nd which I don't mind.  I think taking Brady there is a bit early but not the end of the world.  I would rather take a WR at the turn and hope Brees is there at the 4/5 if you wanted a high end QB.  Your WR's will be weak, but that's an area that is easier to address during the season. 

I don't think any 3 player start is a lock for the playoffs but its as good as most I think.

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It's not something I would do, but that team would have a good chance at the playoffs - it's hard to call it a "lock". Every team should look pretty good after only three picks are in.

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6 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

In order for this to happen you have to pick 1st or 2nd I assume.  That means Gronk fell to the late 2nd which I don't mind.  I think taking Brady there is a bit early but not the end of the world.  I would rather take a WR at the turn and hope Brees is there at the 4/5 if you wanted a high end QB.  Your WR's will be weak, but that's an area that is easier to address during the season. 

I don't think any 3 player start is a lock for the playoffs but its as good as most I think.

That's pretty much my point if you walk out the draft hitting big on ya 1st 3 picks regardless of position (except kicker and defense) you should be able to field a very competitive team. Most drafts I hope to come away with 3-4 core players you give me that and I'll win 

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My only concern with your scenario is that you'd have to go back into the TE pool earlier than most teams. While Gronk is a great player when available, his injury concerns at this point are very real, so I'd certainly want a quality backup available. As posted up-thread, the WR position can be addressed during the season but your depth would be lacking, IMO.

:banned:

 

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12 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

In order for this to happen you have to pick 1st or 2nd I assume.  That means Gronk fell to the late 2nd which I don't mind.  I think taking Brady there is a bit early but not the end of the world.  I would rather take a WR at the turn and hope Brees is there at the 4/5 if you wanted a high end QB.  Your WR's will be weak, but that's an area that is easier to address during the season. 

I don't think any 3 player start is a lock for the playoffs but its as good as most I think.

Pretty much this.

I get appeal of getting a RB, TE and QB all of whom right now for most people would be in a top tier of two players at their respective positions and for good measure have a Brady/Gronk hookup which can devastate opponents some weeks. But for me the flaw in this approach was, as mentioned above, not taking a WR over Brady.

David Johnson last season was like a RB1 and a WR3 combined. Anyone who gets that kind of performance again has a major leg up on making the playoffs. If Gronk returns to form he's a top fantasy difference maker. So those two staying healthy would be good enough for most teams to make the playoffs, if an owner knows what they are doing, but picking Brady at 3.1 was not necessary to me to make this conclusion.

 

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I'd prefer AR to Brady but there's nothing wrong with this start at all. Top potential scorer at 3 positions.

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There is no reason to pick a 2nd TE. Just play WW in season.

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50 minutes ago, BillyJoeBob said:

Not a strategy I would use, but with good management during the season most teams can make the playoffs.

David Johnson is a fine way to start the draft, no concerns here.

With Gronks health, I would need to have a quality backup.  I would rather wait a few rounds and take Olson or similar.  With Olsen, I will only use one spot on TE and go to the wire for bye weeks or injury.

I am a huge fan of Brady for fantasy.  He won me a few leagues last year.  The difference is he was a mid round pick or later due to the suspension.   I would rather have a RB/WR with that pick and get a quality QB starter much later in the draft. 

I would not like the quality or depth of by RB/WRs in the scenario of Gronk and Brady drafted in the top 3 rounds.

BJB

 

 

Olsen is the WR equivalent of Emmanuel Sanders- 8 standard ppg. Gronk is the WR equivalent of Julio- 12 standard is ppg. 

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I'd prefer AR to Brady but there's nothing wrong with this start at all. Top potential scorer at 3 positions.

Exactly if you got potentially #1 player at 3 positions how can you lose?

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8 minutes ago, hotboyz said:

Exactly if you got potentially #1 player at 3 positions how can you lose?

 Besides the obvious injury and bust potential even for top rated guys? It's possible you are never able to get things straightened out at RB2 and your 3 WR spots. The key isn't that Gronk is the #1 TE. Kelce was the top TE last year and averaged the same standard ppg as WR25. It's that Gronk consistently averages around 12.5 ppg which would have made him WR5 last year. 

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1 hour ago, hotboyz said:

I'm having a discussion on twitter and I'm being told I'm crazy. When I prepare for drafts I kinda like to look at all case scenarios, I wanna ask you guys if you're in a 12 tm ppr redraft and you came out of the 1st 3 Rds with David Johnson Gronk and Brady assuming all are healthy how good do you think ya chances would be at making the playoffs?

My argument with this start you could pencil this owner in for the playoffs esp if he's experienced and knows what he's doing

It's a fine start, but definitely premature to "pencil this owner in for the playoffs".  You can't pencil in anyone, that's why fantasy is awesome.  It's a good start, esp the first 2 picks. Brady at the beginning of the 3rd could be a mistake.  He could play amazing but it's going to set this team back big time at the WR position.  That said, Brady is close to a sure thing and lots of the WRs in that range are risky (Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, etc).  I probably would have taken a different pick in the 3rd. 

Assuming after 3 picks that a team will make the playoffs is silly.

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21 minutes ago, hotboyz said:

Exactly if you got potentially #1 player at 3 positions how can you lose?

Might as well grab Den/KC TD and Tucker/Gostowski if goal is to maximize potential #1 players at a position.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Might as well grab Den/KC TD and Tucker/Gostowski if goal is to maximize potential #1 players at a position.

 

 

Nothing wrong with that----if done at the right point in the draft

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2 hours ago, hotboyz said:

I'm having a discussion on twitter and I'm being told I'm crazy.

Both sides of the argument are wrong.  You're crazy for even having the discussion.  No one is anything after 3 rounds. 

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I personally donot like this strategy.  I'm fine with drafting one of those 2 ( prefer Brady being the one in the 3rd), but I think you really put yourself at disadvantage at rb/wr if you draft both of those  players in rounds 2 and 3.

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It boils down to Gronk. If he plays a full slate, I'd put your playoff chances at 70%. If he's hurt and/or misses time, you decrease percentage wise by the time he misses. Busting on a round 2 pick makes it tough.

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As long as DJ, Gronk and Brady give you a bigger advantage than your disadvantage at RB2 and your 3 WR spots, then you'll be fine.  

It's really based on Gronk staying healthy.  Personally, I am avoiding Gronk this year since I get a good TE 4-5 rounds later. 

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It depends alot on your league size and rules. I think I would feel very comfortable with those three.

Having said that I don't like having two superstars on the same bye week/team and I agree with others that I would rather have a WR than a TE especially if you start more than one WR every week.

Edited by pinkham13
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4 hours ago, hotboyz said:

I'm having a discussion on twitter and I'm being told I'm crazy. When I prepare for drafts I kinda like to look at all case scenarios, I wanna ask you guys if you're in a 12 tm ppr redraft and you came out of the 1st 3 Rds with David Johnson Gronk and Brady assuming all are healthy how good do you think ya chances would be at making the playoffs?

My argument with this start you could pencil this owner in for the playoffs esp if he's experienced and knows what he's doing

If all stay healthy then you've got a pretty great set of starters and I would think you've got a great chance at the playoffs.  I would still need to see the rest of the roster to know for sure.  I don't think I would do it because even though you may have one great RB the rest of your RBs are probably barely going to be worth starting and all of your WRs are going to be low end.

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Here is an example of a team I just mocked in 1 QB/2RB/3WR/1TE Non PPR: 

QB: Rodgers

RB: Johnson, Cook, Abdullah, James White 

WR: Crabtree, Martavis, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones, Tedd Ginn

TE: Gronk

The WRs I passed on to take Rodgers were Cooks, Watkins, Hopkins and the RBs were Crowell, Lynch and Hide. 

When I was picking the later players like Lockett and Ginn there were still QBs like Stafford, Dalton, Tyrod and Rivers available. While I like the conservative start of DJ, Gronk and AR/TB, I think my team would have been better if I took Sammy Watkins instead of Rodgers and then took a late QB instead of Ted Ginn. 

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seems like a terrible start.  You get lucky with a top 2 pick to get David Johnson, then mess it up taking Brady with what, pick 26?

So your first WR in a PPR league, at the earliest, is going to come at around pick 47? 

I think going WR-WR-WR is a better strategy than no WRs in the first 3 rounds of a PPR league.  Or in this case, taking DJ then WR-WR is better

 

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3 hours ago, hotboyz said:

Exactly if you got potentially #1 player at 3 positions how can you lose?

Gronk plays 5 games and you can get a similar qb way later.

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If the drafter has any experience, this should be a lock playoff team. Fantasy PPG wins championships. All three of those players will be Top 3 or better in PPG. Don't believe others that you can get someone that scores like Brady does in the mid to late rounds. With savvy drafts, you can't. 

That being said, I might not want to build my team like that, but that's more of a personal preference. 

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I don't have much experience w/ actual results (Monies)   But I like it ALOT..   You nailed RB   Yeah you may find something nice in a later Rnd   But odds are it takes patience, and some Luck..  (I don't think ya scared anybody to do much anything different)  Gronk pick   Again Grt choice   Ive started to like whoever the Skins trot out quite often..  But, I'm sure ya got some guys thinking they need to act sooner than later at some point..   You changed the TE dynamic, it wont lead to TE's flying off the board..  But the risk is now present in the following Rnds.  Brady is a bit of a tough sell..  I think in work Leagues, its an awesome choice..  Money guys are gonna be focusing on return..  Can ya hurt feelings grabbing your bye week QB early?  Can you list the Top 12 QBs for scoring?  I like it!   Think you really need to have confidence in your ability to draft WR's   

 

My only concern is that I could see the need to hit on a late rnd RB becoming important..  I'm obviously expecting RB quality too have diminished.. Some Guys just stack em too.  (Its the curse of value dropping)  If ya take that 2nd RB in the 4th?  Think youre stuck to go WR only, which isn't textbook BPA

 

When I first sorta figured out FF, this is the type conclusion that I came too..  ex. Most will shun the QB, and be eaten alive w/ Eli Manning in a later rnd, while pointing blame elsewhere.. 

Edited by Dismattle

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High risk with the Gronk/Brady combo due to Gronks injury concerns. You need a perfect storm of both Gronk and Brady being healthy all year for it to work. If you went with a more traditional approach and took Gronk and a WR in Brady's spot you'd increase your probabilities of having a good season. If you waited on QB you could still get a good one at either of the next four rounds, i.e. Luck, Ryan, Wilson, Newton, Carr, Winston.

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As long as DJ and the whole Cardinals team doesn't regress, Gronk stays healthy, and Brady doesn't hit the cliff, this looks like a great start.

But that's the thing, right?  Every team thinks their first 3 picks look great.  A whole bunch of them end up underperforming.  None of these guys are immune to that.

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8 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Here is an example of a team I just mocked in 1 QB/2RB/3WR/1TE Non PPR: 

QB: Rodgers

RB: Johnson, Cook, Abdullah, James White 

WR: Crabtree, Martavis, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones, Tedd Ginn

TE: Gronk

The WRs I passed on to take Rodgers were Cooks, Watkins, Hopkins and the RBs were Crowell, Lynch and Hide. 

When I was picking the later players like Lockett and Ginn there were still QBs like Stafford, Dalton, Tyrod and Rivers available. While I like the conservative start of DJ, Gronk and AR/TB, I think my team would have been better if I took Sammy Watkins instead of Rodgers and then took a late QB instead of Ted Ginn. 

In my league (ppr, 4-pt pass TD) Rodgers outscored Stafford by 6.3ppg.  Cooks (the highest scoring of the WRs you listed) outscored Ginn by 3.9ppg.

Ginn's in a new spot this year of course, but even still that was the difference in WR8 to WR48 in PPG.  The PPG gap between Rodgers and Stafford was larger than the PPG gap between Antonio Brown (WR1) and Kenny Stills (WR37).

I'm not typically a QB-early kind of guy, but I'm just putting the numbers out there for this straight comparison.

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I like the risk of Gronk but no way do I use the first pick in the third on Brady (if I did I'd take Rodgers but anyway...). You're giving up a shot at a WR 1 especially in PPR. After Brady and Rodgers you can wait a couple rounds and still get a top 5 QB as other posters have said. I don't think you'll like your WR stable if you wait. And Brady is 40....Father Time is going to get him sooner or later.

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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

In my league (ppr, 4-pt pass TD) Rodgers outscored Stafford by 6.3ppg.  Cooks (the highest scoring of the WRs you listed) outscored Ginn by 3.9ppg.

Ginn's in a new spot this year of course, but even still that was the difference in WR8 to WR48 in PPG.  The PPG gap between Rodgers and Stafford was larger than the PPG gap between Antonio Brown (WR1) and Kenny Stills (WR37).

I'm not typically a QB-early kind of guy, but I'm just putting the numbers out there for this straight comparison.

A) Those are last years stats. If we were drafting based on last years stats, the draft would be very simple and Rodgers would be gone by the end of the 2nd. 

B) Yes, but I would never draft Stafford or Rivers or Dalton and just play them every game. I would use them in combination with the WW to find good match-ups (unless they turned into this years version of Matt Ryan). I can't go on the WW and just add WR37. At any given time, it's likely at least 60 WRs are owned so if I need one, I am looking at more like WR61 where as with QBs only about 16-18 are owned so there are starting quality QBs available on the WW. It's just the demand of the positions. The demand for WRs is 3x that of QB. Plus there is no room for error when taking a QB early. If that QB doesn't end up having an elite season (for my 6pt TD league, that is >24 ppg) then they basically fall into a giant pile of QBs that are nearly interchangeable. With Cooks, even if he doesn't return on his WR10 draft investment, he can still be a valuable weekly play. You aren't happy if you take Cooks as WR10 and he ends up as WR20 but he was still a weekly starter for your team. If you take Rodgers as QB1 and he ends up as QB6, your pick was a waste. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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18 hours ago, hotboyz said:

I'm having a discussion on twitter and I'm being told I'm crazy. When I prepare for drafts I kinda like to look at all case scenarios, I wanna ask you guys if you're in a 12 tm ppr redraft and you came out of the 1st 3 Rds with David Johnson Gronk and Brady assuming all are healthy how good do you think ya chances would be at making the playoffs?

My argument with this start you could pencil this owner in for the playoffs esp if he's experienced and knows what he's doing

I wouldn't be bold enough to pencil anybody in the playoffs until probably week 10. However, for those with open minds, the discussion may be helpful.

D Johnson is 1.01 for most people. If you want Gronk, you won't see him come back to you at the 4/5 turn. Maybe the same with Brady. I like Brady a lot this year, but not enough to pick him at 3.01. Some are willing to spend an early round pick on a QB, just not me.

I don't get too excited about the 1st 2 rounds. For me, the real drafting starts in round 3. While I wouldn't be taking a QB at 3.01, I'm sure there are going to be league winners that do. Just too many variables to take too hard of a stance, especially in July.

So, IMO, your argument won't be settled for a few months.

Edited by brun

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It all comes down to your lineup requirements and scoring settings.  If your starters are QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/Flex, then you've completely hamstrung yourself by not taking a WR in the 1st three rounds.

Ditto if this is a PPR league.

 

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In theory, it sounds like a solid strategy. Try to draft the #1 scorers at each spot. The problem I see, is that with going QB and TE early, you're limiting your depth at WR and RB. So you're basically relying on Johnson, Gronk, and Brady to 1) Stay healthy and 2) Carry the rest of your team. If they get dinged up or don't live up to expectations, you may not have the depth to cover yourself.

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On 7/26/2017 at 2:56 PM, hotboyz said:

Exactly if you got potentially #1 player at 3 positions how can you lose?

Pretty sure the whole theory of VBD is basically centered around how you can lose despite having the #1 player at multiple positions.  

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