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LOCO

Offical 3 pick in a redraft

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Well was all set to taking the left over of zeke/bell/DJ.  now what do we do?  don't love mccoy/freeman/gordon this early, hate going WR in a nonppr.

what is the play?

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6 minutes ago, The General said:

Antonio Brown is the answer even if you don't like getting a WR.

Agree.  Think you gotta go Brown, but wouldn't fault you for taking Gordon.  Absolutely NO one else is in the discussion there though.

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turn the shower on, step in, cry where no one can see your tears.. get out,  take a brown/obj/Julio/Gordon, I don't think theres much of a difference whatever way you go, what I would do is do a few mock drafts from the 3 hole going WR a few times and RB a few times and see what team u feel better with after 10 rounds.

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3 hours ago, LOCO said:

what is the play?

Switch your league to an auction instead of an archaic snake draft.

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4 hours ago, matuski said:

Switch your league to an auction instead of an archaic snake draft.

Don't do this. This could be a good discussion about now who is the third pick. A question lots of people are interested in. 

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7 hours ago, Deamon said:

Agree.  Think you gotta go Brown, but wouldn't fault you for taking Gordon.  Absolutely NO one else is in the discussion there though.

I think McCoy and Freeman could be in the discussion.

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4 hours ago, boilerdave said:

I think McCoy and Freeman could be in the discussion.

At 3 overall?  I dunno, I can't see it.  I guess anyone could really be in the discussion, but it seems pretty cut and paste this year with the 3 pick that you're taking Brown.

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I am picking 3 in a 14-teamer.  No PPR, old-school redrdaft league that used to be 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D & 1 K.  However, in our 24th season, we are switching to flex this year -- have to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and then the other two starting spots can be any combination of RB/WR/TE.

I too was taking whichever RB dropped to me of the big 3, but now that has changed.  Was thinking Brown, but historically, WR1 ranks 6th overall, after the top 5 RBs, according to our scoring system.

Which RB to take here is now a big deal.  My next 4 are McCoy, Freeman and Gordon and I don't really see another who could slip into the conversation for that spot among RBs.  Our draft is Thursday and when it's time to pull the trigger, I don't know if I can take McCoy.  I'm guessing the Audible guys would preach McCoy too.  Do the trades Buffalo just made affect him?  Or does it make him even more of a lock?

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16 hours ago, Deamon said:

Agree.  Think you gotta go Brown, but wouldn't fault you for taking Gordon.  Absolutely NO one else is in the discussion there though.

 

8 hours ago, boilerdave said:

I think McCoy and Freeman could be in the discussion.

Yep. I'd take McCoy over Gordon fairly easily in redraft. 

DJ / Bell

McCoy / brown

Gordon / Freeman / Julio...

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56 minutes ago, buckeye35 said:

I am picking 3 in a 14-teamer.  No PPR, old-school redrdaft league that used to be 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D & 1 K.  However, in our 24th season, we are switching to flex this year -- have to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and then the other two starting spots can be any combination of RB/WR/TE.

I too was taking whichever RB dropped to me of the big 3, but now that has changed.  Was thinking Brown, but historically, WR1 ranks 6th overall, after the top 5 RBs, according to our scoring system.

Which RB to take here is now a big deal.  My next 4 are McCoy, Freeman and Gordon and I don't really see another who could slip into the conversation for that spot among RBs.  Our draft is Thursday and when it's time to pull the trigger, I don't know if I can take McCoy.  I'm guessing the Audible guys would preach McCoy too.  Do the trades Buffalo just made affect him?  Or does it make him even more of a lock?

Affect, sure. Likely scenario imo - bills play from behind slightly more often than they would without both trades. McCoy is by far their best tool in the field but they need to get him in space, more receptions. But ty and the receivers might not be enough to keep defenses honest. 

I think McCoy slipped a bit yesterday in non ppr but not that significantly.

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My problem with McCoy is that he's 29, why not take freeman who is younger, on a better offense and has the easiest playoff schedule in the league?  

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Was loving having this pick in my local redraft for about a day. Then the Elliott news broke and I guess we have to assume the suspension will probably hold up until known otherwise. So now a big question, when it should have been an easy decision. I lean Brown, McCoy or Freeman, can't see picking anyone else really. Brown is as consistent as they come, with only Ben's annual injury to darken the stats. McCoy was awesome last year but a small amount of regression should probably be expected and Buffalo don't look better as a whole which adds pressure. Freeman has Coleman right behind him but a soft looking playoff schedule. Maybe Julio is the other i'd consider, even in non-ppr. 

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Like we're doing in the Official 2nd Pick thread, it would be great to also see folks talk about what you're thinking about BEYOND the 1st round. 

I know all the drama is now who you take at 1.03, but make a call and then see how it might effect your draft in the next few rounds. 

 

For example, even in my non-ppr leagues, I'd go ABrown for safety/consistency. 

Then in the 2nd round: I tend to avoid going QB early, so wouldn't take Rodgers here though some might. 

For RB, I'm looking at one of Miller, Gurley, fournette, Lynch. Don't love any of those. Would probably go WR again (Dez, Hilton, cooper, Baldwin, Hopkins). 

When it comes back in the 3rd, I go RB here for sure. LYnch, Crowell, or whichever of the above RBs in 2 that might fall. 

My guess is I'd probably then RB/WR or WR/RB my way through the 4/5 turn and not think about QB til the 7th round at best. I'd probably like to use 3 of my 4 picks on RB from rounds 3 to 6. 

Anyway, those are my thoughts beyond just the 1.3 picks. 

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 So I got pulled 3rd in my main league last night.

 (2 weeks before our draft, we pull names at random, and the first person gets his choice of draft slot , and so on.)

Right down the list until the last guy has to take the last spot.

 As expected the first 2 guys pulled went #1-#2, then I was pulled 3rd, and I hit the brakes.

I wasn't going EZE regardless of suspension or not, my choice is if I can land either of the top 2 RBs, then take those or Antonio Brown.

I also debated briefly proceeding to slot #12, but I would rather take the small chance that one of the top two gets Brown or someone else....then I could snag DJ or Bell.

 

I doubt that will happen, but we will see soon enough.  Before anyone thinks about who they would draft at #3, we play in START 3WRs leagues, (no flex) with close to standard scoring. My strategy the last few years has been to go WR-WR, and generally I have had late picks, so thats how I went off in the past. Always making the playoffs and in contention, I thought this approach worked relatively well.

I feel in this set up, having TWO  truly elite WRs gave you a small edge on the field at the position, and  if one is shrewd enough to land another top 20-25ish as their 3rd, the advantage at WR is pretty big.

 

This year I am gambling that there is a small possibility I can draft one of the big two RBs, and in the probable event I can't, then I will probably go Antonio Brown and proceed from there.

The vast majority of the mocks I have been doing this way have looked like this to start......

 Antonio Brown - Todd Gurley - Amari Cooper

 Antonio Brown - Isaiah Crowell - Demaryius Thomas

 Antonio Brown - Todd Gurley - Demaryius Thomas

 

Normally I feel like I am "sufficient at WR" then in the next 2 picks I am typically ending up with a mix of any 2 of these.... Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Kelvin Benjamin , Willie Snead, Stefon Diggs.

 Note - I am high on the Spencer Ware/Kareem Hunt combo. If I get one, I will reach for the other generally)

If I don't like the Wrs at that stage, I may well get Jimmy Graham (who I think can be elite/top 4 TE) or even Mariota.

While I don't like pulling the trigger too early on a QB, many of our hometown leagues tend to draft QBs earlier than these so-called "expert drafts".  If I feel like I am very strong through 2 WRs and 2 RBs ( + one additional of either) then I have no issue getting what I feel like might be an elite QB in Mariota. By then the big 4-5 QBs are gone.

In many of these mocks, If I don't get the QB I want in rounds 6-7, then I punt on QB completely until I can get Carson Palmer very late, and I am often punting on TE altogether too, if I feel like I need the RB depth, and that is happening occasionally.

I feel like Doyle or Fleener will finish right around the top 10-12 TE cusp, and I have no issue with those if the rest of my team is stacked. So if I can snag one of them in round 14-15, then I am good with that......... as long as the draft fell favorably for my team.

 

This gets a little scattershot in the later rounds, like rounds 8-9. I generally want my WR3 before then so I can load up on RBs, handcuffs and lottery tickets.

Drafting this way, I have no issue getting a kicker or defense earlier (think round 12 or so), if I feel like they are "elite" or are going to be the top 2-3 at their respective positions and I think I can get my late round RB targets/handcuffs a round or two later.

(I happen to feel this is one of the least talked about, and most underutilized strategies..... go ahead and get your kicker or defense 2-3 rounds earlier, IF you know your handcuff or late round fliers will be there later)

Obviously this comes down to knowing your league mates.

Let's say you are targeting Robby Anderson as your WR4....  know damn well most in my leagues are going to say "Who in the Hell is that???".  I will take a kicker like Tucker or Gostkowski  if I know full well Robby Anderson will go untouched for a couple rounds.

 

I will be watching this thread intently the next week or so, and I will do a bunch more mocks and post more thoughts here in the coming days.

 

 TZM

 

 

 

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For the OP, I would go with McCoy since he is THE guy on his team.  I don't blame anyone for rolling with Freeman either though since he has some legit positives over McCoy in some areas.   

For TMZ, it is so easy to take Brown and then let the draft come to you as you have shown in your mocks. 

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1 hour ago, DocHolliday said:

For the OP, I would go with McCoy since he is THE guy on his team.  I don't blame anyone for rolling with Freeman either though since he has some legit positives over McCoy in some areas.   

For TMZ, it is so easy to take Brown and then let the draft come to you as you have shown in your mocks. 

Is there any thoughts on taking Gordon over McCoy if you're dead set on getting a RB? McCoy has been the guy and will continue to be the guy, but I just have this worry of the miles he has on him. Not saying that Gordon's talent is necessarily better than that of McCoy's, but it's definitely something I've pondered. 

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I like Gordon later in the first round, but not at #3.  Do not get me wrong.  I was a big fan of Gordon when he entered the NFL.  Gordon should be a solid RB in FF this season.  He will get plenty of touches and should score decently just based on volume.  I do not see him exploding for big points much though.   

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On 8/12/2017 at 7:45 AM, TripItUp said:

My problem with McCoy is that he's 29, why not take freeman who is younger, on a better offense and has the easiest playoff schedule in the league?  

Tevin will get more love than JW. And cost a lot more if you like backups. 

The smart money I'm is taking McCoy and paying for his backup.

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9 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Tevin will get more love than JW. And cost a lot more if you like backups. 

The smart money I'm is taking McCoy and paying for his backup.

good point, although I don't handcuff freeman...too expensive.

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6 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

good point, although I don't handcuff freeman...too expensive.

Totally agreed. Although I'd be interested to see if taking the falcons backs as your duo, or maybe tevin as your third with Freeman in tow would be a good plan. Probably depends on how the loss of shanny impacts the offense.

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I am leaning towards antonio brown at 3. 

In the second I will take gronk if he falls (happens in about 20% of the mocks I have done) otherwise best rb left which is typically lynch/miller/gurley.  

In the third I have been considering rodgers if he is there which he has been in about 75% of the mocks I have done. 

Then I would start stacking running backs...probably have a shot at delvin cook/mixon/powell coming back. Pick up a wr2 somewhere along the way.  

If it pans out the way I am hoping, I have a core of rodgers/antonio/gronk, the top three players at their position and then cobble together a rbbc approach  

My league is typically a rb heavy draft so it's entirely possible I get at least one of gronk/rodgers.  I doubt I get both but thats my starting strategy. 

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hmmm....need asterisks and CAPS, almost couldn't find this thread...

**** Official 3rd Pick Redraft Strategy 12 Team PPR ****

As always when you are on the ends, the early turn kind of sets the tone. In mocks I find (SALY) I hate teams with Rodgers, Gronk, or if Elliott/Fournette/Gurley. The former is too steep for 6/13ths of a season, Fournette seems like a lumbering guy prone to HAS, and Gurley...love the talent, hate the sitch.

Presumably DJ and Bell go 1-2, no debate for me on taking AB.

Love combo picks at the turn - if it works out, something along the lines of Amari or T.Y. paired with Lamar Miller. Might think about reaching for Cook or even Mixon if there is an early run on RBs.

At the 4/5, it's tempting to think about TE. The problem is Gronk/Kelce/Olsen are off the board, leaving you with the choice of is Reed healthy or will Graham return to elite status (TE12 & TE10 the last 2 seasons.) I think I'll be back filling WRs here, I love how dominant a team with 4 WRs in the first 5 rounds can be in full PPR.

At the 6/7, I'm targeting guys like AA or Woodhead as my RB2. Might think about going Eifert, Bennett or Rudulph - if you don't, at the 8/9 - 10/11 you're looking at the likes of Doyle or Ebron. No thanks. Typically this is where Mariotta or Ryan or Luck (is gonna suit up Week 1?) are going - dang, why not wait 3 more rounds for Dak or Carr? Not much difference IMO.

At the 8/9, still way too much value out there at RB & WR. Diggs or Cobb have great upside here, and I think Garcon will see volume in his new home.

At the 10/11 and beyond I'll start thinking about QB and start taking flyers at RB3/RB4/WR5 or WR6. Why go boring with limited upside? Take some gambles, something might hit. Our draft is 18 rounds and the last 3rd I typically take 3-4 long shots and hope one pans out.

Of course these fairly-predictable-mocks can lull you - you have to be fluid and adjust during the actual draft. I've been playing against my league mates for over 20 years, though, and there are easily discernible patterns to how it will go down on August 27.

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Have to go Brown here even if it isn't PPR, you are going to be able to get 2 of these backs when it comes back around to you at the 2/3 turn. Miller, Ajayi, Cook, CMC, Fournette, Howard, Gurley, maybe even Zeke.  I feel like I am missing another back, but you get the point. 

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1 hour ago, msudaisy26 said:

Have to go Brown here even if it isn't PPR, you are going to be able to get 2 of these backs when it comes back around to you at the 2/3 turn. Miller, Ajayi, Cook, CMC, Fournette, Howard, Gurley, maybe even Zeke.  I feel like I am missing another back, but you get the point. 

Agreed AB is the no-brainer, but you're def not seeing Ajayi or Howard at #22. Likely you won't see Fournette or Gurley as well. I like Miller and your favorite rookie hype RB at the 2/3. For a guy who will only be around for the last 6 games, pretty steep price IMO, but I guess if you go .500 to start you'll be tough to beat down the stretch.

When you're on the edges, if you really want someone, you'll have to reach sometimes. #27 might seem early for Cook or Mixon, but they won't be there at #46 in most formats.

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

Agreed AB is the no-brainer, but you're def not seeing Ajayi or Howard at #22. Likely you won't see Fournette or Gurley as well. I like Miller and your favorite rookie hype RB at the 2/3. For a guy who will only be around for the last 6 games, pretty steep price IMO, but I guess if you go .500 to start you'll be tough to beat down the stretch.

When you're on the edges, if you really want someone, you'll have to reach sometimes. #27 might seem early for Cook or Mixon, but they won't be there at #46 in most formats.

Agreed on the reach at the ends.  Take who you want not what the adp rankings or conventional wisdom dictate. I would rather go down swinging with gys I want on my team even if they may be considered a "reach" vs guys that I felt obligated to take based upon the circumstances of the draft. 

I am leaning more toward AB and the RB -RB/WR (bpa) vs taking rodgers in the third.  Plenty of qbs to take later in the draft.  

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I know everyone is focused on RB scarcity but I find having 3-4 solid WRs - anchored by AB blowing up and winning a couple weeks single handedly with a monster game - has been a consistent key to success in the last 5-6 seasons. We're full PPR, start 3WRS + Flex, so this is league scoring dependent to some extent, but RB-RB or 1 WR in the 1st three rounds has not yielded good success for me in this decade.

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On 8/21/2017 at 3:17 PM, snore said:

  Take who you want not what the adp rankings or conventional wisdom dictate. I would rather go down swinging with gys I want on my team even if they may be considered a "reach" vs guys that I felt obligated to take based upon the circumstances of the draft. 

 

 

 Agreed, and this should always be emphasized, especially to more "casual" fantasy players.  When the season is on the line, I would much rather have "my guys" playing, rather than some ADP anointed pick.   If you lose on the back of a player you didn't particularly want, you may spend the whole offseason cussing and screaming.

 (Personally, I am "cold" enough to handle it, but many casual players are NOT) 

Draft, pick and play who you want.......within reason. 

 

 Another small tidbit I see people make a mistake on at pick #3 - (in redraft)

Suppose you get Antonio Brown at #3, and the first two guys ahead of you get David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell as expected. Of course you should have at least a bit of an idea as to how the next round is going to unfold. Our leagues are START 3WRs , so I know damn well I am going to be getting 2 top WRs in the first three  rounds. So then your late round 2 pick approaches, and you decide to snag a running back there. MISTAKE!   I see people make this mistake all day long. If you know you are going to grab a RB (at either your round 2 pick or round 3 pick) then get yourself another position at round 2.  For me, its going to be a WR.

REASON - The two guys that had picks 1 and 2 got RBs right?  They are almost certainly going to get high end WRs with their next picks, (because they started with a top end RB)  so if you want another WR in rounds 2 or 3, then take the wide receiver in round 2, and get your RB with a round 3 pick.  I see guys screw this up all the time and I laugh every single time. The #1 and #2 overall slots nab the WR that the #3 guy wanted.  Take the WR in round 2, since you know the other two managers are almost definitely going to get a WR there between your round 2 and 3 picks.

 

 (Obviously this also holds true later on in drafts, but to a much lesser extent)

 

 

 TZM

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4 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

 

 Agreed, and this should always be emphasized, especially to more "casual" fantasy players.  When the season is on the line, I would much rather have "my guys" playing, rather than some ADP anointed pick.   If you lose on the back of a player you didn't particularly want, you may spend the whole offseason cussing and screaming.

 (Personally, I am "cold" enough to handle it, but many casual players are NOT) 

Draft, pick and play who you want.......within reason. 

 

 Another small tidbit I see people make a mistake on at pick #3 - (in redraft)

Suppose you get Antonio Brown at #3, and the first two guys ahead of you get David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell as expected. Of course you should have at least a bit of an idea as to how the next round is going to unfold. Our leagues are START 3WRs , so I know damn well I am going to be getting 2 top WRs in the first three  rounds. So then your late round 2 pick approaches, and you decide to snag a running back there. MISTAKE!   I see people make this mistake all day long. If you know you are going to grab a RB (at either your round 2 pick or round 3 pick) then get yourself another position at round 2.  For me, its going to be a WR.

REASON - The two guys that had picks 1 and 2 got RBs right?  They are almost certainly going to get high end WRs with their next picks, (because they started with a top end RB)  so if you want another WR in rounds 2 or 3, then take the wide receiver in round 2, and get your RB with a round 3 pick.  I see guys screw this up all the time and I laugh every single time. The #1 and #2 overall slots nab the WR that the #3 guy wanted.  Take the WR in round 2, since you know the other two managers are almost definitely going to get a WR there between your round 2 and 3 picks.

 

 (Obviously this also holds true later on in drafts, but to a much lesser extent)

 

 

 TZM

great posting!

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Excellent point TZM - seems obvious when you think about it.

The guys who took DJ or Bell have the four picks between your #22 and #27. More often than not, they'll be taking 3-4 WRs at 23-26. Which means your pool of RBs available at 27 will be roughly the same as 22. Wouldn't you rather start that turn choosing amongst Baldwin, Cooks, Cooper and Hilton?

Every draft is fluid, but in 90-95% of PPR drafts, the top 21 picks will include 9-11 RBs. You have no reasonable expectation you'll see Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon, Howard, McCoy, and Murray (plus the top 2 - and see the following for the next 3 RBs.)

In most scenarios, the last 3 RBs taken (or alternatively, still available at #22) will be Elliott, Gurley & Fournette. Personally I'm not too high on them for different reasons in PPR. In the case of the latter, he might be rookie RB3 or RB4 at years end despite his clear cut path to bell cow. Anyone who took the Rams talented RB last year is once bitten twice shy. Let someone else try to carry dead weight for 7 weeks of the 13 game regular FF season.

At WR - this won't be true in every draft - the consensus top 8 includes AB, OBJ, Dez, Evans, AJ, Julio, Jordy, and M. Thomas - and clearly the Cowboys and Saints stars are the last two (least trusted) in that group.

Some idiot almost always screws up their draft by taking Gronk or AR in the teens. Good luck to both of ya, you have our sincere gratitude.

Likely pick #22 candidates: Baldwin (mostly), Dez (maybe), Cooks, Cooper, Zeke (slim), Gronk (possible), Hilton, and AR (sometimes.) Seems early for Keenan, DeAndre, Ashlon,  Terrell, or Demaryius - but if that's your guy, go for it!

Likely 2.03 / #27 RB choices: Possibly Crowell, Fournette, Gurley, or Miller. I'm going against chalk and taking Lamar if that's what falls. But my better option (IMO) is to take a flashy, high upside rookie. Cooks, McCaffrey, and even Mixon could all prove how silly ADP is if you use it as anything other than a rough predictive tool.

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On 8/12/2017 at 6:12 AM, buckeye35 said:

I am picking 3 in a 14-teamer.  No PPR, old-school redrdaft league that used to be 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D & 1 K.  However, in our 24th season, we are switching to flex this year -- have to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and then the other two starting spots can be any combination of RB/WR/TE.

I too was taking whichever RB dropped to me of the big 3, but now that has changed.  Was thinking Brown, but historically, WR1 ranks 6th overall, after the top 5 RBs, according to our scoring system.

Which RB to take here is now a big deal.  My next 4 are McCoy, Freeman and Gordon and I don't really see another who could slip into the conversation for that spot among RBs.  Our draft is Thursday and when it's time to pull the trigger, I don't know if I can take McCoy.  I'm guessing the Audible guys would preach McCoy too.  Do the trades Buffalo just made affect him?  Or does it make him even more of a lock?

Bills fan here.

 

Stay away from the entire offense. It's going to be a disaster this season. McCoy will sniff 1000 and 6 TDs. 1200/8TDs is his ceiling.

ETA: they have no deep threat to keep the safeties back. Additionally, defenses will play close to stop Tyrod from running, which means more often than not they'll be there to gang up on Shady. It's going to be a putrid offense.

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16 minutes ago, flysack said:

Bills fan here.

 

Stay away from the entire offense. It's going to be a disaster this season. McCoy will sniff 1000 and 6 TDs. 1200/8TDs is his ceiling.

ETA: they have no deep threat to keep the safeties back. Additionally, defenses will play close to stop Tyrod from running, which means more often than not they'll be there to gang up on Shady. It's going to be a putrid offense.

Hard to say for sure. They were without that deep threat they traded away for 8 games last year and McCoy beasted in the first four and then got injured in the 5th.

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

Hard to say for sure. They were without that deep threat they traded away for 8 games last year and McCoy beasted in the first four and then got injured in the 5th.

They still had Goodwin, perhaps the fastest WR in the game. Teams had to respect that. Even though he was a marginal WR he could run a sick fly route and Tyrod is a very good deep passer.

 

Now? 

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On 8/12/2017 at 6:12 AM, buckeye35 said:

I am picking 3 in a 14-teamer.  No PPR, old-school redrdaft league that used to be 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D & 1 K.  However, in our 24th season, we are switching to flex this year -- have to start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and then the other two starting spots can be any combination of RB/WR/TE.

I too was taking whichever RB dropped to me of the big 3, but now that has changed.  Was thinking Brown, but historically, WR1 ranks 6th overall, after the top 5 RBs, according to our scoring system.

Which RB to take here is now a big deal.  My next 4 are McCoy, Freeman and Gordon and I don't really see another who could slip into the conversation for that spot among RBs.  Our draft is Thursday and when it's time to pull the trigger, I don't know if I can take McCoy.  I'm guessing the Audible guys would preach McCoy too.  Do the trades Buffalo just made affect him?  Or does it make him even more of a lock?

I'm in pretty much the same boat. That is #3 in a 14 team league old school non-PPR with RBs getting 6pts/TD and WRs get 4pts/TD. Based on that and that I know there will be decent WR options at 2.12 and 3.03. I'm locked into a RB and it's just a matter of which one. It comes down to McCoy or Freeman (Gordon isn't in the picture at #3 IMO). My heart is telling me Shady based on 1) His 13 rushing TDs last year and 2) Most of the experts have McCoy rated higher than Freeman. My head however is telling me to go with Freeman. Why?

  1. Shady feels like fools gold (chasing last years TDs...only the second time in his career he had double digit TDs). 
  2. I'm really concerned about Buffalo's offense. Trading Watkins is going to hurt and they are going to play from behind a lot
  3. The Atl offense looks high octane again. Tevin is going to take some carries but I think there are enough mouths to feed in that offense and Freeman looks to be the TD guy again.

McCoy not having to contend with TD vulture Gillislee pushes me a little back to McCoy but I'm not sure enough to make up for the disparity between Buffalo and Atlanta's offenses.

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On 8/12/2017 at 8:45 AM, TripItUp said:

My problem with McCoy is that he's 29, why not take freeman who is younger, on a better offense and has the easiest playoff schedule in the league?  

McCoy's age doesn't concern me but I agree with your other point. That is that Atlanta is a MUCH better offense and I'm concerned about Buffalo constantly playing from behind. I haven't decided yet but I will be taking a RB at #3 and at this point slightly leaning to Freeman over McCoy.

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24 minutes ago, Buzzbait said:

I'm in pretty much the same boat. That is #3 in a 14 team league old school non-PPR with RBs getting 6pts/TD and WRs get 4pts/TD. Based on that and that I know there will be decent WR options at 2.12 and 3.03. I'm locked into a RB and it's just a matter of which one. It comes down to McCoy or Freeman (Gordon isn't in the picture at #3 IMO). My heart is telling me Shady based on 1) His 13 rushing TDs last year and 2) Most of the experts have McCoy rated higher than Freeman. My head however is telling me to go with Freeman. Why?

  1. Shady feels like fools gold (chasing last years TDs...only the second time in his career he had double digit TDs). 
  2. I'm really concerned about Buffalo's offense. Trading Watkins is going to hurt and they are going to play from behind a lot
  3. The Atl offense looks high octane again. Tevin is going to take some carries but I think there are enough mouths to feed in that offense and Freeman looks to be the TD guy again.

McCoy not having to contend with TD vulture Gillislee pushes me a little back to McCoy but I'm not sure enough to make up for the disparity between Buffalo and Atlanta's offenses.

Same. My long running local 12 team redraft is next week. Picking at 3, was excited to get it but then the EE new broke. Start 1RB, 1WR and 2 flex from either position. It's going to be either Freeman or Brown. Non-PPR. I had favored McCoy initially but generally negative news and opinions on the Bills in recent days is turning me off. If I go Freeman, will likely go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn. If I go Brown, will likely go WR/RB next 2 picks.

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I will post a recent draft I had in one of my bigger $$$ leagues. I don't necessarily want critique of my team nor how I drafted, but I am just posting it since this thread has been stale for a week, and I know there are plenty of us out there drafting every day now.

Of course, I drafted from the 3rd slot.

This is just food for thought. This league is standard scoring, but no flex and mandatory start 3 WRs. Otherwise its a basic,QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,TE,K,DEF with 6 bench spots.

 Round 1 - Antonio Brown

 Round 2 - Brandin Cooks

 Round 3 - Dalvin Cook

 Round 4 - C.J. Anderson

Round 5 - Marcus Mariota

Round 6 - Derrick Henry

Round 7 - Terrance West

 Round 8 - Jonathan Stewart

Round 9 - John Brown

Round 10 - Duke Johnson

 Round 11 - Jordan Matthews

Round 12 - Jack Doyle

Round 13 - Wil Lutz

Round 14 -  LA Rams Defense

Round 15 - Jamaal Charles

 

 A few notable things, I ended up taking Brandin Cooks as my WR2, and I didn't think I would actually own him this year. I didn't want to take Demaryius Thomas there, as I still doubt the passing game they may have. The other WR2-ish guys that were left,  I wasn't too fond of, though I considered Baldwin. (TY Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Terrelle Pryor)

 My normal strategy is to get 4 WRs, and draft a load of RBs late.  I ended up taking RBs in rounds 3,4,6,7,8,10 and 15.

In retrospect, I would have liked to have one more big name WR, but on the flip side I have the RB depth to trade for another soon, and have already been talking offers from 2 owners.

I took the controversial?? pick of Marcus Mariota early in round 5, as I knew full well he wasn't going to make it back to me. NOTE- It was unexpected, but 2 qbs went off the board in round 1/Brady + Rodgers.  It wasn't my intent to get a QB this early, but I liked the upside of Mariota and his late season run last year.     I decided to take Mariota there, as I would rather have had him at this cost, than something like Winston or Roethlisberger later.

 Doyle in round 11 was earlier than I wanted, but the TEs were drying up quickly. I planned to target Doyle later, I just had to get him when I did.

 I typically grab a kicker in 13th or the 14th, and yet again the kickers were flying off the board early, and Lutz I wanted to gamble on.(good offense, dome etc)

 

I tend to "stockpile" RBs, and only have 4 WRs with differing byes if I can help it. That didn't quite work out...but I do feel like it was a solid depth of RBs, considering drafting from the 3rd slot.

One thing I want to add - and its become painfully obvious this year, and moreso than the last few years.

I had done a slew of mocks on Fantasy Pros, as is my usual custom. I do a bunch on yahoo as well, and in retrospect I Iiked  actually doing the Yahoo ones better, even though they are far more time consuming.

REASON - Mock after Mock, I was simply waiting on a QB until much later, and the same is true with defenses and kickers.  That just isn't the case with my leagues, as often the QBs, defenses and even kickers go off far faster. It caught me off guard, as it was worse than I had expected and prepared for. Two QBs going in the first round had a wild effect on this draft, and in turn they started going off the board faster. There were THREE defenses drafted in round 7. (7.8, 7.10, 7.11) There were TWO kickers drafted in round 8, and TWO kickers drafted in round 9.

But it allowed me to have much stronger depth at RB, and by week 7 several of the teams are going to be in dire straights at RB. There are several teams that only have 3 RBs. :ph34r:  (and their 3rds are Shane Vereen and Sproles respectively on two squads) Good luck to those guys.

 

 I guess "knowing your league" is key, and don't fall into the trap of doing only "expert mocks" and getting accustomed to doing those ONLY. Perhaps doing more "fishy/public" mocks is also a smart idea as the season approaches.

 

 

 TZM

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TZMarkie said:

 

I will post a recent draft I had in one of my bigger $$$ leagues. I don't necessarily want critique of my team nor how I drafted, but I am just posting it since this thread has been stale for a week, and I know there are plenty of us out there drafting every day now.

Of course, I drafted from the 3rd slot.

This is just food for thought. This league is standard scoring, but no flex and mandatory start 3 WRs. Otherwise its a basic,QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,TE,K,DEF with 6 bench spots.

 Round 1 - Antonio Brown

 Round 2 - Brandin Cooks

 Round 3 - Dalvin Cook

 Round 4 - C.J. Anderson

Round 5 - Marcus Mariota

Round 6 - Derrick Henry

Round 7 - Terrance West

 Round 8 - Jonathan Stewart

Round 9 - John Brown

Round 10 - Duke Johnson

 Round 11 - Jordan Matthews

Round 12 - Jack Doyle

Round 13 - Wil Lutz

Round 14 -  LA Rams Defense

Round 15 - Jamaal Charles

 

 A few notable things, I ended up taking Brandin Cooks as my WR2, and I didn't think I would actually own him this year. I didn't want to take Demaryius Thomas there, as I still doubt the passing game they may have. The other WR2-ish guys that were left,  I wasn't too fond of, though I considered Baldwin. (TY Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Terrelle Pryor)

 My normal strategy is to get 4 WRs, and draft a load of RBs late.  I ended up taking RBs in rounds 3,4,6,7,8,10 and 15.

In retrospect, I would have liked to have one more big name WR, but on the flip side I have the RB depth to trade for another soon, and have already been talking offers from 2 owners.

I took the controversial?? pick of Marcus Mariota early in round 5, as I knew full well he wasn't going to make it back to me. NOTE- It was unexpected, but 2 qbs went off the board in round 1/Brady + Rodgers.  It wasn't my intent to get a QB this early, but I liked the upside of Mariota and his late season run last year.     I decided to take Mariota there, as I would rather have had him at this cost, than something like Winston or Roethlisberger later.

 Doyle in round 11 was earlier than I wanted, but the TEs were drying up quickly. I planned to target Doyle later, I just had to get him when I did.

 I typically grab a kicker in 13th or the 14th, and yet again the kickers were flying off the board early, and Lutz I wanted to gamble on.(good offense, dome etc)

 

I tend to "stockpile" RBs, and only have 4 WRs with differing byes if I can help it. That didn't quite work out...but I do feel like it was a solid depth of RBs, considering drafting from the 3rd slot.

One thing I want to add - and its become painfully obvious this year, and moreso than the last few years.

I had done a slew of mocks on Fantasy Pros, as is my usual custom. I do a bunch on yahoo as well, and in retrospect I Iiked  actually doing the Yahoo ones better, even though they are far more time consuming.

REASON - Mock after Mock, I was simply waiting on a QB until much later, and the same is true with defenses and kickers.  That just isn't the case with my leagues, as often the QBs, defenses and even kickers go off far faster. It caught me off guard, as it was worse than I had expected and prepared for. Two QBs going in the first round had a wild effect on this draft, and in turn they started going off the board faster. There were THREE defenses drafted in round 7. (7.8, 7.10, 7.11) There were TWO kickers drafted in round 8, and TWO kickers drafted in round 9.

But it allowed me to have much stronger depth at RB, and by week 7 several of the teams are going to be in dire straights at RB. There are several teams that only have 3 RBs. :ph34r:  (and their 3rds are Shane Vereen and Sproles respectively on two squads) Good luck to those guys.

 

 I guess "knowing your league" is key, and don't fall into the trap of doing only "expert mocks" and getting accustomed to doing those ONLY. Perhaps doing more "fishy/public" mocks is also a smart idea as the season approaches.

 

 

 TZM

 

 

 

Mariota in round 5 is waaaay too early for me. I got Stafford/Rivers in rounds 10&11 to stream in a 12 team league. Not much disparity between 6-15 IMO (matchup dependent)

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I'm looking at Brown and hopefully Gronk falls to me in the 2nd 

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1 hour ago, ponchsox said:

Mariota in round 5 is waaaay too early for me. I got Stafford/Rivers in rounds 10&11 to stream in a 12 team league. Not much disparity between 6-15 IMO (matchup dependent)

 

Yeah, I get it, and I knew it wasn't going to be popular.

Its all pure upside for me. There was like a 6-8 game stretch last year where he was easily the #1 QB in fantasy. Is it a bit of a reach?  Possibly, but then again, I can always go and pick up another QB. In said league these guys are available on the wire currently.......... Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Tyrod Taylor, Brian Hoyer, Sam Bradford,Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, and DeShone Kizer. (who may turn out to be a streaming play) There are others too, but I don't want any parts of those.

Even if you cut those down to Bortles, Taylor, Palmer and a wildcard like Kizer, I can still stream if needed.

So I'd rather have went upside with what I think Mariota may be, knowing I could still stream QBs. I would have rather pulled someone in round 5 I think could be top 4-5 -ish if things fell right, knowing I could still fall back and stream if needed. (this way I didn't tie up multiple late round picks, and I instead used those picks on dart throw RBs)

 

If I could change anything with that draft, I would have snagged another WR fairly early. (and not counting on Matthews)  But barring WR injury I should be OK.

 

I just put it up here to point out what I was choosing from and what was available + picked in a real draft in the 3rd slot.

 

 TZM

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Here is what i got in a 12 PPR  Start 1 QB 2RB 3WR 1 TE 1PK 1Def

A.Brown

D.Bryant

E,Elliott

J,Mixon

D.Adams

C.Newton

P.Perkins

T.Coleman

D.Moncrief

K,Rudolph

D.McFadden

KC

C.Wentz

OJ Howard

W.Lutz

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12 team, non-ppr 1qb/2rb/1wr/1te/1flex/k/d, 6pts for all TDs

It's a fun work league that's a mix of noobs and good players. Probably a "typical" kind of league for most folks who don't spend all day in the Shark Pool...er...um....on to my draft.

 

1.(3)Le'Veon Bell (Pit - RB)

2.(22)Michael Thomas (NO - WR)

3.(27)Leonard Fournette (Jax - RB)

4.(46)Ameer Abdullah (Det - RB)

5.(51)Tyreek Hill (KC - WR)

6.(70)Hunter Henry (LAC - TE)

7.(75)Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)

8.(94)Jarvis Landry (Mia - WR)

9.(99)Doug Martin (TB - RB)

10.(118)Andrew Luck (Ind - QB)

11.(123)Thomas Rawls (Sea - RB)

12.(142)Baltimore (Bal - DEF)

13.(147)Donte Moncrief (Ind - WR)

14.(166)Jordan Matthews (Buf - WR)

15.(171)Cameron Brate (TB - TE)

 

For a non-shark league where QBs go earlier that most leagues (I got Bell at the 3 slot because Brady went 1.1, for example), I was very happy to see Ryan sitting there in the 7th. And Landry in the 8th as a "depth" WR.  Loving Luck as my backup QB as everyone is so scared off due to injury. If he doesn't get back to form, I dump him and am happy with Ryan, of course, but worth a shot in the 10th imo.

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Was set to take Antonio Brown at 3 and work it out from there, however, someone took Beckham at no 1 ! Non ppr this is how it shook out ...

1. Bell

2. Gronk

3. Cooks

4. Mixon

5. T Hill

6. Abdullah

7. Martin

8. Newton

9.  Marshall

10. J Brown 

11. Marvin Jones 

12. Tyrell Williams

13. Jaquizz Rodgers  

14. J Williams BUF

15. Robby Anderson 

 

Was pretty happy. Obviously need to drop 2 for a K and D

only weakness could see was top 2 WRs are high ceiling low floor possibilities so when I hit they sweetspot area of rounds 7-12 I just started trying to grab all the good value WRs there 

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I like Julio this year at 3.....I think he might surpass Brown this year if he can stay healthy.  Also hoping Zeke's suspension gets reduced and can take him at 3 (can keep for this year +2).

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11 hours ago, Couchtater said:

Brown

Gurley

Crowell

Allen

Fitzgerald

Graham

Woodhead

Martin

 

 

  Couchtater, good stuff. Almost all of my mocks have went down precisely this way, and many times I am going Brown/WR/Gurley or Brown/WR/Crowell.

So many of my teams are starting off in a similar fashion. I am also high on Doug Martin, so he is a target later in my drafts as well.

 

In the one 12 teamer I have done thus far,  (described above) Doug Martin was taken right before me later in the draft. I also debated Crowell, but after I got Cooks and Brown, I didn't want all 3 week 9 byes.

 Whenever I get Crowell this year, I am trying to get Duke Johnson as well.

 

 

 TZM

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Just found out I drew the three pick tonight in a twelve team, non-PPR draft. League is 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 WR/RB/TE flex and 1 DST 1 K

Dodds Henry has Elliott third. Tempted.  

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Just found out I drew the three pick tonight in a twelve team, non-PPR draft. League is 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 WR/RB/TE flex and 1 DST 1 K

Dodds Henry has Elliott third. Tempted.  

Gutsy with Brown sitting there and  "guaranteed" stud WR performance. 

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