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Notes: Overreaction Monday / Digesting Week 1 / Preparing for Week 2 (1 Viewer)

SeniorVBDStudent

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A place to keep my notes for Week 2 fantasy expectations...feel free to shred my perceptions....

Multiple offenses across the league looked out of synch, but this is to be expected.  

So what reactions are not over-reactions?

Group 1

Below expectations offensive production in Week 1 include Pats, Bengals, Cardinals, Redskins, Seahawks, Giants, Titans and to a lesser extent Falcons, Steelers, Packers, Panthers.  

Redskins (@Rams), Seahawks (hosting SF) and Titans (@Jax) MAY continue to struggle in Week 2.  

Pats (@NO) and Bengals (hosting Houston) should bounce back, though the Pats defense MAY be broken even if Hightower returns and the trolls want to believe Brady is done rather than suffering from loss of Edelman and lack of integration of Allen and Cooks.  

If Cardinals don't bounce back against the Colts, even without DJ, we have a serious problem.

Falcons (hosting GB), Steelers (hosting Minn), Packers (@Atl), Panthers (hosting Buf) should bounce back.

Group 2

Above is not including offense-deficient teams such as Jets, Brownies, No-luck Colts, Niners.  

Brownies didn't look all that bad really and the Niners may be able to improve (but not @Seattle) as Hyde looked good and there were a lot of dropped passes.

It will be interesting to see if Kearse continues to lead Jets receivers, including when ASJ is back week 3, and if/when Petty gets handed the keys (soon I suspect).

Yesterday was the first day I heard analysts talking about not seeing Luck until Week 4 or 5.  Fire Jim Irsay.  Jerry Jones, Daniel Snyder and Irsay are bad for the league (/rant).

Group 3 

Coming in at or above expectations: Chiefs (above), Bills, Bears, Ravens, Lions (above), Jags (above), Raiders, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys.  Chiefs, Lions, Raiders and Eagles are interesting candidates for "legitimately improved production versus last year", as are the Rams (but at a lower level).  

Lions at Giants is an interesting Week 2 matchup to look for confirmation of trends.  Presumeably OBJ will be back but Giants Oline and Marshall's lack of production have to be a concern for fans.

Jags lost Robinson and may just be the beneficiaries of Tom Savage...concern will be that defenses key more on Fournette going forward.

Offensive Players of (Positive) Note / Let's see what happens

KC (all), Lions (passing game), Jags (small ball success), Bills (all), Bears (Cohen), Ravens (passing game), Brownies (Kizer), PHI (Smallwood and Algolor versus Blount and Jeffreys), LA (Kupp, Gurley), Sea (Carlson versus Lacy/Rawls), GB (Cobb, Montgomery), CAR (Stewart vs CMC)
 

 
In our full PPR with bonuses for long plays/TDs & milestones, Amendola (7-6-100-0) & Cooper (13-5-62-1) are top ten with 17.20. The Hunt owner had Stafford & Tate; our former Commish started his draft AB/Zeke/Tyreek. Everybody else? About the same as this mornings L train.

 
Only week 1 but some of the over hyped players?

RB- Smallwood

WR- Zay Jones, Crowder, Marshall (with Beckum out), M Bryant,

QB-Wilson, Dalton(some experts on Sirus xm calling him a very underrated QB)

TE -Eifert (result of just how bad the Bengals are)

 
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Only week 1 but some of the over hyped players?

RB- Smallwood

WR- Zay Jones, Crowder, Marshall (with Beckum out), M Bryant,

QB-Wilson, Dalton(some experts on Sirus xm calling him a very underrated QB)
Yep, I was surprised with how uninvolved Marshall was all night. He's getting older, but he showed almost nothing last night.

With guys like him and Marvin Jones sitting on my bench, I'll probably cut bait with one or both of them and take dart throws on guys that have a change to be more involved, like Cohen and Corey Davis.

 
The pre-season has become 99% meaningless, this week felt like the old version of preseason game #3, now teams don't want to play the starters at all in in week3, maybe 5 mins or so? for fear of being hurt and the teams look lost in week 1, unless you have a fantastic o-line which are few and far between

 
looks like opening day 2016, same weirdness in scoring, top players in subpar performances.I"m sure that most of the stars will return to the limelight next weekend.

did not see Az getting beaten down so badly by the Lions. 

Dak is taking a (big) step forward this year..

 Montgomery didn't disappoint yesterday. 

 Carson carved out a much larger role for himself in the Sea offense.

not sure what to make of Cohen, he made the most of opportunities, thats for sure!

 
The pre-season has become 99% meaningless, this week felt like the old version of preseason game #3, now teams don't want to play the starters at all in in week3, maybe 5 mins or so? for fear of being hurt and the teams look lost in week 1, unless you have a fantastic o-line which are few and far between
Worst display of NFL football ever for a opening day. Defenses were so far ahead of offenses, which looked inept. I blame most of that on the new practice rules.

 
Looked like first day of training camp yesterday... trying to forget all of it.

Only thing that stands out (that I am putting any stock into) is Nelson Agholor's usage in Philly. A lot of other things stood out, but for all the wrong reasons.

 
I'm not sure how you think Cincy is going to bounce back.  Maybe if you mean they will actually score a freakin point, then I can see it might happen.

Their biggest question mark going into the year was if the O-line could give Dalton any time (consistently) to get the ball to the playmakers, and the answer was a resounding NO the first game.  5 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 1 fumble.  With the exception of one INT, every one of those was a result of a horrible O-line.  Batted passes, strip sack, etc, they just looked bad, and I can't see them improving against a defense on a short week, who has good pass rushers. 

Add in the fact that Ken Zampese has zero imagination as offensive coordinator, and you have a recipe for historic ineptitude, which is sad because they have so much talent at the skill positions.  Dalton is a mediocre QB, but he can look very good when protected.  Take that away, and you get what you saw yesterday. 

Fade the Bengals this week.  That's my advice.  Only start is AJ Green, and temper expectations.

 
Looked like first day of training camp yesterday... trying to forget all of it.

Only thing that stands out (that I am putting any stock into) is Nelson Agholor's usage in Philly. A lot of other things stood out, but for all the wrong reasons.
Eagles hung on to the guy when he had literal hands of stone last year. They like him and yesterday showed that he no longer has the yips. He could have a good to great year in that offense.

 
I'm not sure how you think Cincy is going to bounce back.  Maybe if you mean they will actually score a freakin point, then I can see it might happen.

Their biggest question mark going into the year was if the O-line could give Dalton any time (consistently) to get the ball to the playmakers, and the answer was a resounding NO the first game.  5 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 1 fumble.  With the exception of one INT, every one of those was a result of a horrible O-line.  Batted passes, strip sack, etc, they just looked bad, and I can't see them improving against a defense on a short week, who has good pass rushers. 

Add in the fact that Ken Zampese has zero imagination as offensive coordinator, and you have a recipe for historic ineptitude, which is sad because they have so much talent at the skill positions.  Dalton is a mediocre QB, but he can look very good when protected.  Take that away, and you get what you saw yesterday. 

Fade the Bengals this week.  That's my advice.  Only start is AJ Green, and temper expectations.
I expect a reversion to the mean, but the O line could ####### that...

edit: language filter does not allow a word that could mean mentally challenged to be used for "interfere with".  lmao at language filter.

 
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Only week 1 but some of the over hyped players?

RB- Smallwood

WR- Zay Jones, Crowder, Marshall (with Beckum out), M Bryant,

QB-Wilson, Dalton(some experts on Sirus xm calling him a very underrated QB)

TE -Eifert (result of just how bad the Bengals are)
CMC?

I ran awry of his zealots in pre-season.

 
I'm not saying Brady is done, but do you need to be a troll to think that a 40 year old QB just might be done? It happens.
It's a reasonable theory, but after one game there is a faction eager to yell from the rooftops that he's done (same crowd as 2009, 2014, 2016, etc.).  Eventually they will be right.

 
So....open question....what's wrong with the Cardinals?

QB?  Receiving Corps?  Defense?  All of the above?  None of the above?

I did not watch the game.

 
So....open question....what's wrong with the Cardinals?

QB?  Receiving Corps?  Defense?  All of the above?  None of the above?

I did not watch the game.
They were up 17-9 late in the 3rd when DJ fumbled and got hurt on the same play and did not return.

Palmer wasn't great last year and isn't any better, but the team can still be competitive if DJ plays.

 
Would it be too much of an overreaction to drop Andy Dalton to the bowels of hell for what he did to me yesterday?

 
So....open question....what's wrong with the Cardinals?

QB?  Receiving Corps?  Defense?  All of the above?  None of the above?

I did not watch the game.
They are likely only a viable NFL and fantasy offense with David Johnson in the lineup.

Palmer may no longer be able to carry an offense.

 
I'm not sure how you think Cincy is going to bounce back.  Maybe if you mean they will actually score a freakin point, then I can see it might happen.

Their biggest question mark going into the year was if the O-line could give Dalton any time (consistently) to get the ball to the playmakers, and the answer was a resounding NO the first game.  5 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 1 fumble.  With the exception of one INT, every one of those was a result of a horrible O-line.  Batted passes, strip sack, etc, they just looked bad, and I can't see them improving against a defense on a short week, who has good pass rushers. 

Add in the fact that Ken Zampese has zero imagination as offensive coordinator, and you have a recipe for historic ineptitude, which is sad because they have so much talent at the skill positions.  Dalton is a mediocre QB, but he can look very good when protected.  Take that away, and you get what you saw yesterday. 

Fade the Bengals this week.  That's my advice.  Only start is AJ Green, and temper expectations.
Cinci and Houston may have the two worst O'line in football by a lot and both have good defenses. Thursday's game may be an epic display of offensive ineptitude, but at least Cinci has the edge at the skill positions and might get something done.

 
They are likely only a viable NFL and fantasy offense with David Johnson in the lineup.

Palmer may no longer be able to carry an offense.
If DJ misses the week, it will be revealing to see if AZ can dispose of Indy as they should (although Brissett is an upgrade over Tolzein if they go that route).

 
A place to keep my notes for Week 2 fantasy expectations...feel free to shred my perceptions....

Multiple offenses across the league looked out of synch, but this is to be expected.  

So what reactions are not over-reactions?

Group 1

Below expectations offensive production in Week 1 include Pats, Bengals, Cardinals, Redskins, Seahawks, Giants, Titans and to a lesser extent Falcons, Steelers, Packers, Panthers.  

Redskins (@Rams), Seahawks (hosting SF) and Titans (@Jax) MAY continue to struggle in Week 2.  

Pats (@NO) and Bengals (hosting Houston) should bounce back, though the Pats defense MAY be broken even if Hightower returns and the trolls want to believe Brady is done rather than suffering from loss of Edelman and lack of integration of Allen and Cooks.  

If Cardinals don't bounce back against the Colts, even without DJ, we have a serious problem.

Falcons (hosting GB), Steelers (hosting Minn), Packers (@Atl), Panthers (hosting Buf) should bounce back.

Group 2

Above is not including offense-deficient teams such as Jets, Brownies, No-luck Colts, Niners.  

Brownies didn't look all that bad really and the Niners may be able to improve (but not @Seattle) as Hyde looked good and there were a lot of dropped passes.

It will be interesting to see if Kearse continues to lead Jets receivers, including when ASJ is back week 3, and if/when Petty gets handed the keys (soon I suspect).

Yesterday was the first day I heard analysts talking about not seeing Luck until Week 4 or 5.  Fire Jim Irsay.  Jerry Jones, Daniel Snyder and Irsay are bad for the league (/rant).

Group 3 

Coming in at or above expectations: Chiefs (above), Bills, Bears, Ravens, Lions (above), Jags (above), Raiders, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys.  Chiefs, Lions, Raiders and Eagles are interesting candidates for "legitimately improved production versus last year", as are the Rams (but at a lower level).  

Lions at Giants is an interesting Week 2 matchup to look for confirmation of trends.  Presumeably OBJ will be back but Giants Oline and Marshall's lack of production have to be a concern for fans.

Jags lost Robinson and may just be the beneficiaries of Tom Savage...concern will be that defenses key more on Fournette going forward.

Offensive Players of (Positive) Note / Let's see what happens

KC (all), Lions (passing game), Jags (small ball success), Bills (all), Bears (Cohen), Ravens (passing game), Brownies (Kizer), PHI (Smallwood and Algolor versus Blount and Jeffreys), LA (Kupp, Gurley), Sea (Carlson versus Lacy/Rawls), GB (Cobb, Montgomery), CAR (Stewart vs CMC)
 
Nice writeup.

IMO, the Pats performance was more a result of how the Chiefs matched up with Pats offense. Just consider if Berry had gotten hurt early in the 1st quarter rather than late in the 4th quarter. His absence would have left the Chiefs defense with a huge match up problem in covering Gronk. The injury of Amendola certainly didn't help. I expect a bug bounce back this week. (No I am not a Pats fan or apologist.)

I haven't watched the Bengals game yet but I believe people are underestimating the loss of Whitworth and Zeitler. 

Another game I haven't watched yet is the Texans, but the score fit my narrative for this team. Between their QB issues, Oline issues and the distraction of the hurricane impact, I think expectations should be lowered.

I have the same concerns for the teams in Florida, but to a lesser degree. Tamp and Miami do not have the same concerns at QB or the OLine. Shocked at teh Jags performance vs what on paper is a top 5 defense.

 
My two cents:

Jets: The offense looked about as I expected. I had a feeling Forte would be an annoyance for a while. He is done and played way too much. Powell missed a td by inches. That would have made his week. Dink and dunk passing. At least the TE is being used for the first time in years. If Petty takes over, then Anderson will become relevant and Kearse not so much.

Bills: McCoy looked fine, but that hand injury was a quick reminder on his health issues. Freak thing, but it's always something. Big boy Tolbert was the clear back-up and probably vulture. The Jets are awful against TEs and RBs receivers, so don't get too excited about Clay. He is what he is.

Colts: Just awful as expected. Poor Hilton owners. Doyle had 2 quick nice catches and only one target after that. Funny to see Moncrief catch that long pass after years of short passes from Luck.

Rams: Fine score from Gurley, but 40 yards was atrocious. The passing game looked good, but that was a terrible def. I would temper my enthusiasm until they play a good defense, but still, that was a good sign. Kupp looked good.

Pitt: Slow start, but came on at the end. Bell and Brown will be great. Big Ben missed Bryant a couple of times. One could have been a big play, but today, Big Ben only had eyes for Brown. James had a couple of tds, but let's see if McDonald's playing time increases with more practice reps.

Cleveland: Better than most people expected despite the bad game from Crowell. I think he is fine going forward. I didn't watch them very closely, so can't comment on the receivers.

Giants: YIkes, Manning looked awful behind that oline. The running game is non-existent as expected. This game was a bad omen for Marshall owners. This offense can't operate without OBJ.

Dallas:Great game from Witten. Nice day for Zeke even without the td. He's a stud. Bryant will have better days.

Seattle: Out of sorts. I think they will have a great rebound game next week.

GB: It was all Montgomery. Wow, fool's gold on Williams for now.  Montgomery probably won't last if he keeps getting that much work.

Carolina: About as expected on McCaffrey.  That short passing game does not suit Cam. Very inaccurate. Stewart got written off too much. Still serves a purpose on this offense.

SF: Ugly first game. Garcon looks great. Goodwin had his man beat deep, but Hoyer couldn't connect. Not enough carries for Hyde. Bad first game for the offense, but I think it will do better.

Tenn: Davis looked really good and will be a force. Matthews played well and with fire. Let's just say it was an off day for the RBs.

Oak: Carr is very steady. Good production as expected. Well, Lynch survived one game so far.  They actually threw to Cook a few times.

I had Detroit and Arizona on one of my tvs, but didn't pay too much attention. Jones got swallowed up by Peterson, but still saved the day with a td. Abdullah got a promising 15 carries, but didn't do much with them.  Golladay looked like a stud. Tate did what Tate does. I think Jones rebounds against lesser CBs, but Golladay limits his upside. Matt looked great. Palmer looked like poop. Although I don't own him, I hope DJ is good. I don't see Arizona doing anything without him. Looks like a committee without him. They could re-sign Chris Johnson.

 
Nice writeup.

IMO, the Pats performance was more a result of how the Chiefs matched up with Pats offense. Just consider if Berry had gotten hurt early in the 1st quarter rather than late in the 4th quarter. His absence would have left the Chiefs defense with a huge match up problem in covering Gronk. The injury of Amendola certainly didn't help. I expect a bug bounce back this week. (No I am not a Pats fan or apologist.
Patriots went from "the only question is will they go 19-0" to a WHOLE LOTTA questions in one night IMO:

* Berry is great, but great enough to just shut out Gronk? The big guy's health/explosiveness is in question for me.

* Edelman hurts, big time. Amendola is a decent substitute, but the dude just cannot stay on the field.

* Brady was off target with throws to the outside... same types of throws that were waiting for Manning "on the OTHER side"

* Defense is completely suspect... if not for Kelce throwing away a set of downs, and Reid's uncontrollable urge to experiment with weird personnel groupings, that game could have been a major blowout.

Now this could very well ALL add up to week 1 blues - God knows a lot of other teams had similar issues - but if we're going to pick on somebody, it may as well be the Pats. :D

 
Seattle: Out of sorts. I think they will have a great rebound game next week.

SF: Ugly first game. Garcon looks great. Goodwin had his man beat deep, but Hoyer couldn't connect. Not enough carries for Hyde. Bad first game for the offense, but I think it will do better.
As a Wilson owner, I'm mildly concerned that the malaise of week 1 will carry over to week 2 in a division matchup.

As a Hoyer owner, Hoyer dropped that pass in the basket and Goodwin flat out dropped it.

 
As a Wilson owner, I'm mildly concerned that the malaise of week 1 will carry over to week 2 in a division matchup.

As a Hoyer owner, Hoyer dropped that pass in the basket and Goodwin flat out dropped it.
He had two deep passes. I think the one you are referring to was on the right. The one I meant was on the left.

 
So....open question....what's wrong with the Cardinals?

QB?  Receiving Corps?  Defense?  All of the above?  None of the above?

I did not watch the game.
Palmer was terrible.  Detroit's D looked good, but at times Carson just plain missed. 

 
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I'm not sure how you think Cincy is going to bounce back.  Maybe if you mean they will actually score a freakin point, then I can see it might happen.

Their biggest question mark going into the year was if the O-line could give Dalton any time (consistently) to get the ball to the playmakers, and the answer was a resounding NO the first game.  5 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 1 fumble.  With the exception of one INT, every one of those was a result of a horrible O-line.  Batted passes, strip sack, etc, they just looked bad, and I can't see them improving against a defense on a short week, who has good pass rushers. 

Add in the fact that Ken Zampese has zero imagination as offensive coordinator, and you have a recipe for historic ineptitude, which is sad because they have so much talent at the skill positions.  Dalton is a mediocre QB, but he can look very good when protected.  Take that away, and you get what you saw yesterday. 

Fade the Bengals this week.  That's my advice.  Only start is AJ Green, and temper expectations.
Cincy's defense played well enough to win yesterday. They had one busted play (actually, I thought it was an illegal pick) on Maclin's long TD. The other TD was after the Ravens intercepted Dalton at his own 2 and used one play to score. Other than that, they gave up one looooong drive that resulted in a FG and that's about it.

Baltimore's defense is really, really good this year. Been a while since they've had a good pass rush without blitzing the entire team. Also been a while since they've had a secondary this good.

Suggs played like a man possessed and newcomer Tony Jefferson also had a helluva game.

 
Cincy's defense played well enough to win yesterday. They had one busted play (actually, I thought it was an illegal pick) on Maclin's long TD. The other TD was after the Ravens intercepted Dalton at his own 2 and used one play to score. Other than that, they gave up one looooong drive that resulted in a FG and that's about it.

Baltimore's defense is really, really good this year. Been a while since they've had a good pass rush without blitzing the entire team. Also been a while since they've had a secondary this good.

Suggs played like a man possessed and newcomer Tony Jefferson also had a helluva game.
I was just telling a co-worker that I thought that was an illegal play on the Maclin TD, but I am biased so I didn't mention it here. 

The defense did play well, and that was reason for optimism, but I don't feel like the Ravens offense is one to measure anything.  They will be bottom third in the league this year, IMO.  The long drive you speak of started wtih 11 straight runs, and cincy had no answer to stop them.  Two bad defensive (albeit questionable) penalties extended the drive to allow the FG, but overall, you have to get off the field or you will eventually wear down. 

We will see, but I maintain AJ Green is the only Bengal to start this week.  Maybe Eifert if you have no other decent option.

 
My two cents:

Bills: McCoy looked fine, but that hand injury was a quick reminder on his health issues. Freak thing, but it's always something. Big boy Tolbert was the clear back-up and probably vulture. The Jets are awful against TEs and RBs receivers, so don't get too excited about Clay. He is what he is.
Just a quick note on Clay... He's going to get force fed the ball this year, they have nobody out wide to draw attention and all throughout the preseason he was getting the ball a lot more than normal. Low risk sleeper that could pay off as a low/mid TE1

 
It's a reasonable theory, but after one game there is a faction eager to yell from the rooftops that he's done (same crowd as 2009, 2014, 2016, etc.).  Eventually they will be right.
I agree. It really is just player hating. His accuracy was off but that could have a lot to do with timing and having WRs/TEs in spots they need to be with a lot of new faces. If NE continues to stumble out of the gait, it will be because of that defense and not the offense.

 
As a Wilson owner, I'm mildly concerned that the malaise of week 1 will carry over to week 2 in a division matchup.

As a Hoyer owner, Hoyer dropped that pass in the basket and Goodwin flat out dropped it.
It's importan to remember that Wilson struggled in GB last year too. Perhaps it's just a bug a boo of his. Also, Wilson started off very slowly last year and then really started putting up the #s. A lot of people chalked that up to not being healthy early on but I also remember him being a erratic when I had him a few years ago too and I kind of swore him off then. He's a much better QB now than he was then but I'd say his team is not. They miss the stud RB to take the pressure off. 

Concern level 1-10 has me at a 7.5 right now but one good game against SF and I'll probably chill down to a 5 but he may never be an autostart QB IMO.

 
Just a quick note on Clay... He's going to get force fed the ball this year, they have nobody out wide to draw attention and all throughout the preseason he was getting the ball a lot more than normal. Low risk sleeper that could pay off as a low/mid TE1
Yeah, if Clay can stay healthy he could surprise people. He was the #2 TE in the league (per game) over the week 10-16 time period (Watkins returned week 12 & seemed to open things up for him). It seemed like Taylor finally figured out how to use him. I was concerned without Watkins that he might not be as effective, but I guess we'll see.

 
Expect the Pats line to go from -4.5 to -6.5 vs the Saints at least.  The new Saints D looked good....until Bradford started going vertical.

Conversely the Steelers line will drop from -7 to -5 hosting the Vikings at least.

Fleener and Ginn looked good.  Run game is a hot mess.  Vikings offense....wow!

 
Only week 1 but some of the over hyped players?

RB- Smallwood

WR- Zay Jones, Crowder, Marshall (with Beckum out), M Bryant,

QB-Wilson, Dalton(some experts on Sirus xm calling him a very underrated QB)

TE -Eifert (result of just how bad the Bengals are)
Add Hunter Henry to the list of over hyped players. No targets tonight 

 
Mystery Achiever said:
On ESPN radio yesterday, Anita Marks brought Goodwin up as someone she likes for fantasy. Her co-hosts, Chris Canty and Bart Scott broke into laughter and talked about how bad his hands were. Said he has four thumbs.
That was brutal.

1. He tried to body catch it.
2. He didn't try and high point it, he let it come to him. That's a terrible receiver.
3. He's as droppable as the passes that come his way.

 
If DJ misses the week, it will be revealing to see if AZ can dispose of Indy as they should (although Brissett is an upgrade over Tolzein if they go that route).
Expecting the Cards to stink it up again and lose to the Colts, who find a way to get it done at home.

 

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