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Too early Top 30 (1 Viewer)

A

Ack88

Footballguy
Non-ppr, keeper format:

1. Ezekiel Elliott- Suspension gone, elite O-line play, 3 down skill set. Will outpace rookie numbers. My #1 overall choice, regardless of format.

2. LeVeon Bell- Huge volume as offensive centerpiece cements #2 ranking.

3. A. Brown- Continues to be an absolute point machine. Only concern is if Big Ben retires.

4. T. Gurley- Has rebounded even more strongly than my most optimistic preseason projections.

5. AJ Green- Just so darn steady. Plug and play WR1.

6. D. Hopkins- Even shoddy QB play can't slow Nuk down. 

7. A. Kamara- Top 5 in ppr. Can he get even better? Amazing efficiency.

8. S. Barkley- I'm probably a little higher than most, but see a Zeke like impact almost immediately.

9. J. Jones- Would love more RZ action but a fine selection here.

10. L. Fournette- Has been really, really good. Expect more of the same, including periodic nicks that cause him to miss some time here and there.

11. D. Johnson- Still a first round pick.

12. M. Ingram- No longer an under the radar value. Expect to pay 100 cents on the dollar next year.

13. Gronk- Biggest weekly advantage in the game.

14. T. Hill- Most explosive player in the game. Needs more touches.

15. B. Cooks- Legit #1WR w/ great QB in great offense. Could move into top 10 status next year.

16. J. Howard- Productive despite miserable team. Has room for growth with better supporting cast.

17. K. Hunt- I know his production has dropped, but still a legit RB1.

18. J. Nelson- Top 4 wr with Rodgers.

19. K. Allen- Has soared the last few weeks.

20. M. Evans- Still a top 10 overall talent. Could take him higher.

21. D. Freeman- A regression this year, but has been special previous two seasons.

22. M. Thomas- Steady. Has taken a step back with dominant run game.

23. L. McCoy- Not yet 30. Still puts up numbers and gets the touches.

24. A. Jeffrey- With Wentz ascending and a long term deal in place, future looks bright.

25. D. Guice- Location matters but looks to have 3 down skill set.

26. A. Rodgers- Injury aside, still elite.

27. T. Brady- Ignore at your own peril.

28. D. Watson- #28 overall feels about right to me.

29. C. Hyde- Good player on a train wreck team.

30. D. Adams- most productive Pack WR with Hundley taking the snaps. 

 
shadyridr said:
DJ way too low
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Yep, the consensus #1 pick this year doesn't lose much for me as it stands right now. A lot can happen at the QB position in the off-season, but if we were discounting DJ for that now, you'd also have to discount Brown, Bell, OBJ, etc..

Assuming continuity at the QB position, I'd take Zeke before DJ, but that's probably it. Bell's workload worries me, but he would probably round out my Top 3. 

Brown then Gurley for #4 and #5. 

Then Hopkins, Green, Kamara, Julio, Fournette to round out the top 10.

Edit: wow, can't believe I forgot OBJ. Slot him in before Green at #7 for me.

 
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I really don’t get the Barkley love. I think he goes waaay overdrafted in fantasy and will be a super volatile headache. He compiled all of his stats in largely 3 games and disappeared for most of the others. He might become a great pro and I could be wrong, but I just don’t see it. 

 
Moonshine said:
I thought this was a "Top 30 After Josh Gordon Goes at #1" list?

It would feel redundant to list him at #1 over and over and over and over when that's clearly the obvious choice. Heck, he doesn't even need a QB, just let him throw 80 yard bombs to himself.
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Statement of the day - made me laugh.

 
- Yeah, no way I'm buying Carlos Hyde on this list but not Melvin Gordon.

- Theilen needs to be on here. He's just entering his prime.

- Robby Anderson has a case for this list. He's killing it with ancient journeyman McCown. Wait until he has a long term QB. I'd certainly take him over Devante Adams.

 
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Solid list.  But OP said non-ppr...too many discussing like it's ppr (I.e. Robby Anderson, Theilen, etc).  

My main critique would be that if you take AJ Green at #5 in a non-ppr league, I can guarantee you won't win your league.  

 
Jayded said:
I really don’t get the Barkley love. I think he goes waaay overdrafted in fantasy and will be a super volatile headache. He compiled all of his stats in largely 3 games and disappeared for most of the others. He might become a great pro and I could be wrong, but I just don’t see it. 
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Won’t be touching him. Will let someone else reach for him. Largely depends on where he lands but I’m not sold on his talent superseding destination. 

 
Jayded said:
I really don’t get the Barkley love. I think he goes waaay overdrafted in fantasy and will be a super volatile headache. He compiled all of his stats in largely 3 games and disappeared for most of the others. He might become a great pro and I could be wrong, but I just don’t see it. 
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His offensive line is putrid and Penn St. has a very limited passing game.  Analysts have put together whole reels of plays in which he is hit in the backfield before he has a chance to do anything.  

He is an elite talent.  As good a receiver as he is a runner.  For me he is the best RB prospect in at least 5 years.  I'll do whatever I can to get him on every one of my teams. 

 
So what if Davante Adams is the most productive WR with Hundley... Hundley isn't the starter, you do know that right?  

 
Zyphros said:
So what if Davante Adams is the most productive WR with Hundley... Hundley isn't the starter, you do know that right?  
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I still think Adams is a Top 30 wideout ... assuming he re-signs with the Packers. Not sure where he falls if he signs elsewhere. Jordy is 32 and Adams is trending upward as the WR1 on that team. 

In my opinion, I'd slot Russell Wilson in behind Rodgers. Would take him over Brady and Watson. 

 
SayWhat? said:
Solid list.  But OP said non-ppr...too many discussing like it's ppr (I.e. Robby Anderson, Theilen, etc).  

My main critique would be that if you take AJ Green at #5 in a non-ppr league, I can guarantee you won't win your league.  
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Your main critique is AJ Green a couple spots too high... and not OBJ left off the list altogether or that David Johnson is likely 9 spots too low?   

I agree with you that AJ is too high, but there is almost always some guy in every league who will take AJ as soon as Brown, Beckham and Julio are off the board (For WR's I would place Hopkins 3rd just above Julio and AJ but I think his average draft spot will be 5th behind Brown, OBJ, Julio and AJ).

 
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"#####in' Kamara!" has had unsustainable production off low volume prior to last night's concussion. i mean, dang, the kid is special, I'd take him over Hunt 8 days a week, but Ingram will be back for his contract season. 11 TDs and 1247 off 149 touches - that's likely not repeatable. No NFL team has ever had two RBs put up 1500 YFS in the same season, so while it's been a fun ride, i don't expect them to be this wildly successful in 2018. No one predicted the Saints O-line would dominate week after week after week. At least, I wouldn't bank on that for 2018 and project both as first rounders.

 
CaptainJT said:
You left out a top 5 player... maybe you have heard of him... Odelle Beckham Jr.  (Trust me, he's pretty good).
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Yep. Terrible move on my part. Would probably take Beckham #5 overall.

 
onionsack said:
Jordy Nelson over Evans, M. Thomas, K. Allen etc..in a keeper?  :no:
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My keeper league is cap and Jordy has a low cap number.

To your larger point, aside from my specific league, Jordy is definitely below the guys you mentioned.

 
Zyphros said:
So what if Davante Adams is the most productive WR with Hundley... Hundley isn't the starter, you do know that right?  
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I do. 

I made that comment to underscore the point that Adams is a top 30 player for me. 

 
Raback said:
His offensive line is putrid and Penn St. has a very limited passing game.  Analysts have put together whole reels of plays in which he is hit in the backfield before he has a chance to do anything.  

He is an elite talent.  As good a receiver as he is a runner.  For me he is the best RB prospect in at least 5 years.  I'll do whatever I can to get him on every one of my teams. 
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He will come close to what Zeke did two years ago. I have him down for 1400/10 already- and yes, I know I'm higher than most. Elite RBs can come in right away and tear it up. 

 
Ack88 said:
He will come close to what Zeke did two years ago. I have him down for 1400/10 already- and yes, I know I'm higher than most. Elite RBs can come in right away and tear it up. 
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Depending on where he goes I'll consider him round one of a REDRAFT but in dynasty he'll likely be my #1 or #2 RB but that is is PPR, I don't play non-PPR leagues.

The reason you gave for listing Bell at #2 is a great reason for redraft, it's precisely the reason I'd not have him that high in dynasty.

With regards to your list  ingeneral I respect your effort but your list looks more like a redraft list.

 
menobrown said:
Depending on where he goes I'll consider him round one of a REDRAFT but in dynasty he'll likely be my #1 or #2 RB but that is is PPR, I don't play non-PPR leagues.

The reason you gave for listing Bell at #2 is a great reason for redraft, it's precisely the reason I'd not have him that high in dynasty.

With regards to your list  ingeneral I respect your effort but your list looks more like a redraft list.
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Thanks. You are correct- my list does tilt towards a redraft format. As my primary league is a keep 4 (roster 18 total) with a salary cap, I'm more concerned with year to year valuations of players. 

 
No interest in top 30

FIRST ROUND 12 teamer Standard

1. Gurley

2. Elliott

3. Bell

4. D. Johnson

(I think you could throw these 4 in a hat & pull ‘em out in any order, I’d be OK with it)

5. AB

6. Fournette

7. Julio 

8. Hopkins

9. OBJ

10. Gordon

11. AJ Green

12. D. Cook

H.M. Kamara - move up to top 6-8 If Ingram makes the Pro Bowl, voiding his 2018

Other H.M. - Barkley, Evans, Freeman, Hunt, Hyde (UFA), Ingram, McCoy, Mixon, Thomas.

 
BobbyLayne said:
No interest in top 30

FIRST ROUND 12 teamer Standard

1. Gurley

2. Elliott

3. Bell

4. D. Johnson

(I think you could throw these 4 in a hat & pull ‘em out in any order, I’d be OK with it)

5. AB

6. Fournette

7. Julio 

8. Hopkins

9. OBJ

10. Gordon

11. AJ Green

12. D. Cook

H.M. Kamara - move up to top 6-8 If Ingram makes the Pro Bowl, voiding his 2018

Other H.M. - Barkley, Evans, Freeman, Hunt, Hyde (UFA), Ingram, McCoy, Mixon, Thomas.
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For ingram its all pro, not pro bowl. Its not going to happen

 
Zyphros said:
So what if Davante Adams is the most productive WR with Hundley... Hundley isn't the starter, you do know that right?  
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I wouldn’t draft Nelson in the first 8 rounds. He looked done before Rodgers got hurt and another year isn’t helping. Wouldn’t shock me if he retired.

 
voiceofunreason said:
I wouldn’t draft Nelson in the first 8 rounds. He looked done before Rodgers got hurt and another year isn’t helping. Wouldn’t shock me if he retired.
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Jeff just tweeted:

“Night and Day difference. Jordy Nelson has 6 touchdowns in six games with Aaron Rodgers. With Brett Hundley his high yardage game is 35 and he has 0 touchdowns. #Packers”

8:34 PM · Dec 12, 2017

Tex

 
voiceofunreason said:
I wouldn’t draft Nelson in the first 8 rounds. He looked done before Rodgers got hurt and another year isn’t helping. Wouldn’t shock me if he retired.
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He’s been pretty amazing with Rodgers. Yes, he is TD dependent to keep top 5 value, and yes he is either 32 or 33, but he’s still a cinch top 8 round selection in my book. 

 
Wise Old Owl said:
For ingram its all pro, not pro bowl. Its not going to happen
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I believe this is incorrect.  

From rotoworld.com

3/7/2015: Signed a four-year, $16 million contract. The deal contains $7.6 million guaranteed -- a $3.6 million signing bonus and Ingram's first two base salaries. Ingram is eligible for annual $100,000 workout bonuses throughout the contract's life. Ingram's 2018 base salary voids if he makes the Pro Bowl in any two years of 2015-2017, or is named an All Pro in 2017.
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He made the Pro Bowl after last season, & I’d say he has a good shot to make it again this year.  If rotoworld’s contract info is accurate, Ingram will become a UFA after the season.

 
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Presuming the Titans cut Murray, how high does this put Henry?

I’d put him at #29 on my list.

 
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the top 30 should look something like this in PPR leagues...just listing the top15 at RB/WR....I see QBs sliding big time this year.

RB:

Todd Gurley

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Zeke Elliot

Alvin Kamara

Saquon Barkley NYG

Melvin Gordon

Kareem Hunt 

Leonard Fournette 

Dalvin Cook

Devonta Freeman

Christian McCaffrey

LeSean McCoy 

Jordan Howard

Derrius Guice

WR:

Antonio Brown

DeAndre Hopkins

Odell Beckham Jr

Mike Evans

Mike Thomas

Julio Jones

Keenan Allen

Devante Adams

AJ Green

Doug Baldwin

Amari Cooper

Tyreek Hill

TY Hilton

Adam Thelien

Alshon Jeffery

 
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