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I'm Starting ________ over A. J. Green. (1 Viewer)

K

kyoun1e

Footballguy
Most experts are universally ranking AJG in the top 10 this week at the position despite the Rhodes matchup. At this point, MNs defensive stats at home and Rhodes stats vs #1 WRs (outside of the M. Jones anomaly when Rhodes' calf was injured) are well documented. CINCI as a team is in a horrible spot on the road against a motivated team. They're also terribly banged up on the defensive side of the ball. This game screams huge MN time of possession advantage and potential blowout (and Vegas agrees).

Understanding all of the above, I think the situation warrants those who usually "start their studs" to explore other opportunities.

There seem to be a few WRs in the 10-20 range who have the matchup to be worthy of consideration.

Who ya got?

For me: I'm considering C. Hogan. Good matchup. Shootout. Went 9-180-2 in the playoffs vs. PIT last year.

 
I agree, the experts are not discounting this matchup enough.  Green is a super stud and I think they are reluntant to do so.  But can you really start a mid-grade RB2 or WR2 over Green.  I got about 4 of those and it is a tough call.  My guess is Green is going to put up a 4-40-0 game, which I think all my RB2s and WR2s will beat.   But one blown coverage and that becomes a 5-110-1 game.  I am up in the air and need to make a call on Marvin Jones before 4:30.  

 
The reason I'm not sour on Green has more to do with Cincy's D than Minnesota's.  A home game for Minny against a Bengal D missing Burfict and every competent CB on the roster has every chance of becoming a rout.  Especially with Minny jockeying for playoff position, and the Bengals scrambling to get better tee times.  This is of course only exacerbated by the fact that Pacman can't even stop taking cracks at Thielen from the IR.  The Vikes have not only professional reasons, but personal ones to cram this thing down Marvin's throat.

I don't doubt XR's chances of holding Green down while the game matters, but I don't see how that'll be a factor deep into the game.  I think AJ's a virtual lock to be the prime target in mop-up time, and mop-up time may begin before halftime in this one.

 
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jon_mx said:
I agree, the experts are not discounting this matchup enough.  Green is a super stud and I think they are reluntant to do so.  But can you really start a mid-grade RB2 or WR2 over Green.  I got about 4 of those and it is a tough call.  My guess is Green is going to put up a 4-40-0 game, which I think all my RB2s and WR2s will beat.   But one blown coverage and that becomes a 5-110-1 game.  I am up in the air and need to make a call on Marvin Jones before 4:30.  
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Agree with that projection. 

I think something like 5-50 is likely. Meanwhile a floor of 2-24 is more likely than say, a ceiling  of 8-120-1. Based on all the info I'm surrounded by for this situation screams to me that Cinci is a complete no show.

 
Sinjin said:
The reason I'm not sour on Green has more to do with Cincy's D than Minnesota's.  A home game for Minny against a Bengal D missing Burfict and every competent CB on the roster has every chance of becoming a rout.

I don't doubt XR's chances of holding Green down while the game matters, but I don't see how that'll be a factor deep into the game.  I think AJ's a virtual lock to be the prime target in mop-up time, and mop-up time may begin before halftime in this one.
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Also agree on the route.

I absolutely HATE counting on mop up time.

Sometimes mop up time, against a good, motivated D like MN at home, means a lot of 3 and outs and just pack it up and go home. Or worse, sit AJG in the 4th quarter. Just a ton of risk here if we all believe the game script will go as we think.

 
He kinda laid an egg last week. I expect a pretty big week this week and I'm starting him. 

 
Rhodes opposing passer rating this season is 77.3, which is 25th amongst CBS. Per Roto Underworld he’s 23rd best in coverage in 2027; PFF rates him CB23. I have yet to see a comprehensive breakdown of the PFF grading system but they mark down heavily for penalties. I think I posted the numbers in the Funchess thread last week - he’s the 8th most penalized CB. He’s also a beast in containment versus the run, something a lot of fast cover guys do not excel at.

He doesn’t travel, he’s not a shadow CB. That’s not a knock against him, it simply a statement of fact about Zimmers defensive philosophy. Xavier Rhodes didn’t shut down Julio Jones; the Minnesota Vikings, with a combination of disguised coverages, took away Ryan’s best weapon. 

These crutch arguments “I’m benching so and so because he’s facing Hayward-Peterson-Ramsey-Rhodes-Slay doesn’t take into account how complex NFL coverages. It is simply not dependent upon a singular “your best versus my best” matchup. Virtually none of the top CBs go into the slot. When Cincy runs there 3 WR bunch with AJ a step back, he’ll be facing off against Newman, Sendejo, & Smith (slot CB, SS, & FS.)

The Vikings have a good defense but plenty of WRs have had a decent day versus them (recently - Krupp, Woods, MJJ, Funchess - and several others earlier.) He’s unlikely to go off & carry your team, but he’s probably still your best option.

 
I could start Larry Fitz over him but I think I'll leave AJ in. He had a bad game last week but still got 12 targets. Hopefully his floor will be at least 10pts PPR. He has had two games lower than that slightly. I don't count the game he got ejected. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
Rhodes opposing passer rating this season is 77.3, which is 25th amongst CBS. Per Roto Underworld he’s 23rd best in coverage in 2027; PFF rates him CB23. I have yet to see a comprehensive breakdown of the PFF grading system but they mark down heavily for penalties. I think I posted the numbers in the Funchess thread last week - he’s the 8th most penalized CB. He’s also a beast in containment versus the run, something a lot of fast cover guys do not excel at.

He doesn’t travel, he’s not a shadow CB. That’s not a knock against him, it simply a statement of fact about Zimmers defensive philosophy. Xavier Rhodes didn’t shut down Julio Jones; the Minnesota Vikings, with a combination of disguised coverages, took away Ryan’s best weapon. 

These crutch arguments “I’m benching so and so because he’s facing Hayward-Peterson-Ramsey-Rhodes-Slay doesn’t take into account how complex NFL coverages. It is simply not dependent upon a singular “your best versus my best” matchup. Virtually none of the top CBs go into the slot. When Cincy runs there 3 WR bunch with AJ a step back, he’ll be facing off against Newman, Sendejo, & Smith (slot CB, SS, & FS.)

The Vikings have a good defense but plenty of WRs have had a decent day versus them (recently - Krupp, Woods, MJJ, Funchess - and several others earlier.) He’s unlikely to go off & carry your team, but he’s probably still your best option.
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Rhodes has been traveling more this season than in the past and is one of the least thrown at.  

 
Game playing out exactly as I feared.

Cinci a complete disgrace.

Let's see if there's any garbage time. Bet Cinci just tries to get out of the stadium as quickly as they can.

 
I'm a 7 pt underdog this week and I certainly don't see much upside for AJG (Again). Got away with it last week somehow. Probably not so lucky in the championship game.

Looking for any kind of rationale here that says keep AJG in the lineup. Don't see it (yet) outside of idiotic "start your studs" argument (that knocked many out last week).

From rotoworld's "worksheet" which is always an excellent read:

* The Bengals have lost back to back games by 24 or more points for the first time since 2008.

* Cincinnati has scored just 10 offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.

* Since the Bengals Week 6 bye, A.J. Green ranks 21st among all wide receivers in receptions (35) and 23rd in receiving yardage (476).

* Over that span, Green has secured just 48.6 percent (35-of-72) of his targets after posting a 62.7 percent (32-of-51) catch rate prior.

* Bust: Andy Dalton (he’s averaging just 181 yards passing over his past 10 games and the way the Bengals are finishing out this season inspires no confidence in using him anywhere), A.J. Green (he’s been a WR3 or better in just four of his past nine games and the Lions have yet to allow a WR1 scoring week to a lead wideout on the season), 

 
kyoun1e said:
I'm a 7 pt underdog this week and I certainly don't see much upside for AJG (Again). Got away with it last week somehow. Probably not so lucky in the championship game.

Looking for any kind of rationale here that says keep AJG in the lineup. Don't see it (yet) outside of idiotic "start your studs" argument (that knocked many out last week).

From rotoworld's "worksheet" which is always an excellent read:

* The Bengals have lost back to back games by 24 or more points for the first time since 2008.

* Cincinnati has scored just 10 offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.

* Since the Bengals Week 6 bye, A.J. Green ranks 21st among all wide receivers in receptions (35) and 23rd in receiving yardage (476).

* Over that span, Green has secured just 48.6 percent (35-of-72) of his targets after posting a 62.7 percent (32-of-51) catch rate prior.

* Bust: Andy Dalton (he’s averaging just 181 yards passing over his past 10 games and the way the Bengals are finishing out this season inspires no confidence in using him anywhere), A.J. Green (he’s been a WR3 or better in just four of his past nine games and the Lions have yet to allow a WR1 scoring week to a lead wideout on the season), 
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I don't want to play him, but have no choice.  

Demariyus or Sanders with Lynch at QB?

Tyrell Williams?

Keelan Cole?  Am I really benching AJ Green for Keelan Cole??!?!?

 
No one. I think he’ll bounce back in a much softer matchup. He was my #1 pick and I’ll be damned if I play my LCG with him on the bench. 

I have faith. 

6/122/1

:IBTL:

 
yea I like him this week too. I benched him last week but that was due to Rhodes shutting down about everyone this year.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
No one. I think he’ll bounce back in a much softer matchup. He was my #1 pick and I’ll be damned if I play my LCG with him on the bench. 

I have faith. 

6/122/1

:IBTL:
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Why a bounce back?

With Slay on him?

Just don't see it.

It's far more likely he craps the bed again.

If K. Allen was out, I'd think long and hard about T. Williams.

 
Why will he have a bounce back? Maybe because they will target him more then 4 times because that's what teams usually do when they have a super star at a position.

Will he have a much better week...I'm not sure. Am I gonna bench one of the best WRs in the league just because he's had some bad weeks...No. Can I see him being just as likely to go for 10-150-2 compared to last weeks 2-30 or whatever it was...yeah

 
It's a tough call, really thought about benching him last week but didn't and won despite him (thanks Gurley!).

This week, I'm not sure.

PPR league, have AJ, Thielen, Landry and Sanders at WR and Gurley, Gordon, Drake, D Lewis and CJ at RB. Have 2 RB, 2 WR and a Flex spot to fill.

Thinking of going:

RB: Gurley and Gordon

WR: Thielen and Landry

Flex: Drake

Tough to sit someone that's getting 40% of his teams targets though. He's WR 11 and averaging 14.9 per game, but man I don't trust him (or is it Dalton?).

 
Slider said:
Started him every game and got this far. Rolling him out one more time. ? 
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I did too, but I can't give him much credit for making the championship game. Disappointed in some key weeks when I really needed him and cost me the #1 seed (ended up with #4).

Sadly, I got to roll with him again as the only alternatives are Mike Evans or TY Hilton. Evans showed signs of life and looked decent last week, and the other receiving options for Tampa Bay are out or banged up, but I don't think I have the nerve to trust him after his disappointing season (as compared to expectations).

 
I think I'm off this train.  M.Bryant @Hou feels right.  Going Evans and Bryant.  Sitting Green and Fitz.

 
My only option that is viable is to move AJ to flex and then use Jack Doyle instead of him - I think a guaranteed higher floor.  Tough call.

 
kyoun1e said:
I'm a 7 pt underdog this week and I certainly don't see much upside for AJG (Again). Got away with it last week somehow. Probably not so lucky in the championship game.

Looking for any kind of rationale here that says keep AJG in the lineup. Don't see it (yet) outside of idiotic "start your studs" argument (that knocked many out last week).

From rotoworld's "worksheet" which is always an excellent read:

* The Bengals have lost back to back games by 24 or more points for the first time since 2008.

* Cincinnati has scored just 10 offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.

* Since the Bengals Week 6 bye, A.J. Green ranks 21st among all wide receivers in receptions (35) and 23rd in receiving yardage (476).

* Over that span, Green has secured just 48.6 percent (35-of-72) of his targets after posting a 62.7 percent (32-of-51) catch rate prior.

* Bust: Andy Dalton (he’s averaging just 181 yards passing over his past 10 games and the way the Bengals are finishing out this season inspires no confidence in using him anywhere), A.J. Green (he’s been a WR3 or better in just four of his past nine games and the Lions have yet to allow a WR1 scoring week to a lead wideout on the season), 
Click to expand...
Cinci is beat down and looks like they have largely thrown in the towel. That said, this weekend is not only the last home game of the season but also the last home game under Lewis, isn't it? Whatever they have left in the tank, I would think we'll see it on sunday. Maybe its enough to put a good game together and win one last one for the coach? :shrug:  

 
This may be wishful thinking but Cinci is gettin Mixon, Burfdick, and Dre Kirpatrick back. Maybe the offense has more of a spark and the defense has more fire.

Last home game of the year and possibly for M. Lewis. If they don't show up here, well...

I don't have any choice, but to start AJG. Unless I were to really roll the dice with a K. Wright, C. Godwin, D. Byrd. Don't think I can do that.

 
I am torn.. with pressure on due to Thielen ####ting the bed. Green had more single digit PPR weeks than double digit since the bye.. and only one “stud” week of 24pts. 

Crabtree has been more consistent over that stretch and draws a better matchup. Though cooper coming back and may repeat the target hog game. 

 
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