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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons

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Calvin Ridley caught 3-of-4 targets for 28 yards in the Falcons' Week 10 win over the Saints.

Ridley had fewer targets than Julio Jones (9), Russell Gage (5) and Austin Hooper (5). This likely won’t be the case most weeks, but it’s still been surprising to not see Ridley more involved in the offense since Mohamed Sanu was traded to the Patriots. The Falcons’ passing attack didn’t get its usual garbage-time production with the team actually finding a way to lead the Saints throughout the afternoon. Treat Ridley has more of an upside WR3 in next week’s spot against the Panthers.

Stunned he only had 4 targets.

Edited by The Frankman

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Calvin Ridley caught all eight of his targets for 143 yards and one touchdown in the Falcons' 29-3, Week 11 win over the Panthers.

It was a perfect day for Ridley, laying waste to whichever defensive back was lined up opposite him. His touchdown came from six yards out in the third quarter, and Ridley made several other plays on the ball deep with a couple 30-plus yards pickups. It was Ridley's first 100-yard game since Week 2. He'll have a chance to repeat it next week against the sorry Bucs pass defense. It will be Ridley's first matchup with the Bucs this season.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Calvin Ridley (toe) was a limited participant for Wednesday's practice.

It's likely just mid-week rest for Ridley —  at this point of the season, every player is banged up. The second-year standout saw 10 targets (8/91) without Julio Jones (shoulder) on Thanksgiving but will stay a strong WR2 even if the latter returns on Sunday against the Panthers. Consider him a confident option barring any downgrades.

SOURCE: Vaughn McClure on Twitter

Dec 4, 2019, 4:33 PM ET

 

 

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Calvin Ridley (abdominal) has been ruled out for the remainder of Week 14 against the Panthers.

This is an odd, scary situation. Ridley dropped to the floor with reported abdominal pain and was carted off to the locker room. He was visibly in trouble, and the beat reporters haven't quite figured out what's going on. Before leaving, Ridley had five receptions, 76 yards, and one touchdown on five targets. The Falcons should have updates shortly. Julio Jones and Russell Gage will be the primary receivers without Ridley.

SOURCE: Jason Butt on Twitter

Dec 8, 2019, 3:34 PM ET

 

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Rotoworld:

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Calvin Ridley (abdomen) announced he's out for the season via an Instagram post.

His full statement can be read in the link below. Ridley was carted to the locker room in the first half after falling to his knees and being unable to stand. Even in a lost season for the Falcons, though, the second-year gem's 63/866/7 surpassed his rookie receiving mark (821) in what should be viewed as a successful sophomore follow-up. With 17 touchdowns under his belt in just 29 career games (and 15 starts), it's not a stretch to consider Ridley's first two seasons among the best starts of any skill player's immediately out of college. He'll be in the conversation as a Top 30 wideout in Best-Ball leagues and season-long formats in 2020.

SOURCE: Instagram

Dec 9, 2019, 1:46 PM ET

 

 

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Calvin Ridley finished 2018 as the 27th WR overall despite missing 3 games.

As mentioned in the above post one can only see Ridleys second season in the league as him making progress, with possibly more progress yet to come although I think his upside is always limited with Julio taking more of the opportunities.

If we pro rate the 3 games he missed at the end of the 2019 season he was on pace for 114 targets 78 receptions 1066 yards 8.6 TD 2 rushing attempts 34 yards which is 236 fantasy points.

This is similar to Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry or Bobby Woods last season.

WR 12 in PPR leagues have averaged 241 points over the last 3 seasons. So he is within striking range of that despite Julio.

Continues to be the thorn in the side of market share and break out age truthers.

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12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Calvin Ridley finished 2018 as the 27th WR overall despite missing 3 games.

As mentioned in the above post one can only see Ridleys second season in the league as him making progress, with possibly more progress yet to come although I think his upside is always limited with Julio taking more of the opportunities.

If we pro rate the 3 games he missed at the end of the 2019 season he was on pace for 114 targets 78 receptions 1066 yards 8.6 TD 2 rushing attempts 34 yards which is 236 fantasy points.

This is similar to Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry or Bobby Woods last season.

WR 12 in PPR leagues have averaged 241 points over the last 3 seasons. So he is within striking range of that despite Julio.

Continues to be the thorn in the side of market share and break out age truthers.

Did you pro rate all WRs that year to see where Ridley would have finished, or just Ridley?

Yeah hes one of 9 over the last 10 years whom have bucked the trend. No system is perfect, and I can live with being wrong 9/153 times

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Did you pro rate all WRs that year to see where Ridley would have finished, or just Ridley?

Why would I need to do that? The averages are the same each year. Yes missed games applicable to all players.

Mike Evans missed 3 games and a couple other top WR missed one game. Most of the top 24 played 16.

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yeah hes one of 9 over the last 10 years whom have bucked the trend. No system is perfect, and I can live with being wrong 9/153 times

Well as far as I can tell about 40% of the top 12 WR from 2020 do not meet at lest one of the criteria.

Based on break out age Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett,  Kenny Golliday, Calvin Ridley, Terry McClaurin, John Brown,  were all 23 years old or older as rookies.

I don't know if your sample is including John Brown for example who went to a small school and had issues getting started with his career.

If the players only need to meet one of the criteria to be counted by you I think you casting a pretty wide net as far as being able to excuse the player for not meeting one of the categories in how you are counting them.

In my opinion such an analysis would be stronger with a 3rd data point (like NFL draft position) but I would only call hits as players who met all 3 categories, not just one of them.

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Why would I need to do that? The averages are the same each year. Yes missed games applicable to all players.

Mike Evans missed 3 games and a couple other top WR missed one game. Most of the top 24 played 16.

Well as far as I can tell about 40% of the top 12 WR from 2020 do not meet at lest one of the criteria.

Based on break out age Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett,  Kenny Golliday, Calvin Ridley, Terry McClaurin, John Brown,  were all 23 years old or older as rookies.

I don't know if your sample is including John Brown for example who went to a small school and had issues getting started with his career.

If the players only need to meet one of the criteria to be counted by you I think you casting a pretty wide net as far as being able to excuse the player for not meeting one of the categories in how you are counting them.

In my opinion such an analysis would be stronger with a 3rd data point (like NFL draft position) but I would only call hits as players who met all 3 categories, not just one of them.

If you're going to say Ridley was on the cusp of a top 12 season if he didnt miss those 3 games,  but not pro rate everyone... it's very possible if all wrs were prorated that Ridley was much lower.

 

My sample includes all wrs drafted since 2010. Also, Kupp didn't have a late breakout age. 

 

With regards to 2019 data(I assume you meant 2019 and not 2020), only 1 didn't meet the criteria (Thomas). Edelman doesnt have data, so we can count him too I guess. Not sure where you got 40% from. I expect you are basing your 40% number off outdated information. 

 

Furthermore, I added draft position to the data about a week ago and determined that not only does it still do a good job of ruling out, it does an even better job at predicting hits than the NFL hit rate for wrs drafted rounds 1-3. This is something it didnt do when factoring in all drafted WRs. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Yeah Cooper Kupp is great in any time frame or dissection of his game.

All I did was look at the top 24 WR from 2019 (yes thats what I meant, I have just typed 2020 a lot lately) and looked at their age as a rookie.

The guys I listed were 23 or older as rookies. There is nothing out of date about that. Now with the college performance you can say they broke out at an earlier age even though they were old relatively speaking for their rookie seasons.

I kind of don't understand why Calvin Ridley doesn't meet the break out age criteria anyways. He had 89 receptions 1045 yards and 7 TD as a freshman, his age 21 season.

It tells me there is something wrong with how these things are cut off and partitioned.

That is pretty impressive if triangulating these 3 data points gets you to a -place that is more predictive than the NFL draft. Of course it should as it has the strength of that data plus these other two metrics.

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Ridley was 6 percentage points away from making the cut... he was 20.7 for his breakout age. IMO sub 21 seems to be pretty solid in general, but for the sake of running data I make a hard cut off at route 50 percentile

Deebo missed the cutoff age by 1 month... but I did advocate for him having a good shot at being an exception. The issue for me going forward is if he can be a true NFL wr1

Same for Ridley... I remember reading predraft that he wasnt a prototypical wr1. Maybe that's wrong, but its possible when Julio leaves Ridley doesn't see the bump that's expected. For now, I'd ride that wave if I owned him. Hes a strong wr2. Nothing wrong with that.

Edited by Dr. Dan

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