East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Patriots had the double-bye to get in. Jags with two tough games.
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Patriots aren't stupid though.Knock the crap out of Brady, take some penalties and you got a chance. Make him feel 70.
I’m seeing NE- 9/ 47Early line
CoversVerified @Covers 28m28 minutes ago
Opening Line for AFC Championship from @LVSuperBook #Jaguars +8 #GoPats -8 Total: 45.5
Jacksonville has no shot. Patriots will get their 24 points no matter how Jacksonville schemes.If the Jags can execute a game plan to disrupt Brady, they have a decent shot. Various good defenses over the years have been able to do it. The @ Dolphins MNF game is probably the most recent example.
I'm seeing a lot of that as well. I just grabbed the first one I saw on twitter.I’m seeing NE- 9/ 47
Somebody in the Jaguars thread compared their defense to the Seahawks defense that won the SBBusterTBronco said:Jags gave up 545 yards to Big Been and the Steelers. That defense is highly over-rated.
The Patriots, not being a dumb team like Pittsburgh, will destroy them. I expect it will pretty much be a repeat of the Tennessee game.
This. It won't be close. Pats will take away Fournette. Vance McDonald tore them apart--what do you think Gronk will do? Bet the kids and the house at Pats -9.BusterTBronco said:Jags gave up 545 yards to Big Been and the Steelers. That defense is highly over-rated.
The Patriots, not being a dumb team like Pittsburgh, will destroy them. I expect it will pretty much be a repeat of the Tennessee game.
They said this about the Seahawks against Manning in the SB. They were too young, hadn't been there.Pats win going away. Pats at home are ridiculous. And we are talking about Blake Bortles. The stage is just too big for the Jags. Whatever the spread is, take the Pats. They’ve been there, done that, too many times.
The one that gave up 450 and 5 TDs to Ben?I’m laying money on JAX at +8/+9. I think they have the Defense to beat NE.
Let me know when russell wilson is playing qb for the jagsThey said this about the Seahawks against Manning in the SB. They were too young, hadn't been there.
Afterwards they were saying that cause they were so young they didn't understand the significance of the moment, of playing in a SB, therefore played with minimal sense of pressure.
Jags can do this. Am I expecting it? No. But am I ruling it out? No.
The same defense that gave up 44 points to Jimmy Garoppolo?Yes. That one.
already at 9Early line
CoversVerified @Covers 28m28 minutes ago
Opening Line for AFC Championship from @LVSuperBook #Jaguars +8 #GoPats -8 Total: 45.5
Wait...so comparing this defense to Seattle is bad ( despite the coaching influence and concentration on the secondary) but comparing this defense to a team when Jalen Ramsey was in elementary school is.... something elseI remember the last time the Jags and Pats played in the post season.
Brady was something like 26/27...where the one incompletion was when he spiked the ball.
Del Rio blitzed once. The result was an 80 yard TD.
Where’s your money?Line at 9.5 at my book now... crazy. No respect for Jags among betting public.
The 9.5 is at sportsbook right now. Jax is +350 / New England is -440 which is kinda crazyWhere’s your money?
I know the book. So WHERE’S YOUR MONEY?The 9.5 is at sportsbook right now. Jax is +350 / New England is -440 which is kinda crazy
It's gonna be either
Jags 27 Pats 24
OR
Jags 20 Pats and refs 38
No. Not that one.The same defense that gave up 44 points to Jimmy Garoppolo?
Great post here... It was bizzare watching the PIT/JAX game for that reason. I realize PIT got behind early, but it was still VERY early in the game with zero need to abandon the run. NE will not be so foolish.You have New England:
JJ ZachariasonVerified account @LateRoundQB
Tennessee has struggled against the pass all season long while being strong against the run. Patriots with 41 pass attempts to 17 rush attempts despite a positive script for most of the game. Because their coaches actually know how to gameplan.
Titans allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team during the regular season. 10 of 27 completed New England passes tonight have been to running backs.
Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, but I also think it's amazing that this kind of gameplan isn't an expectation. Coaches get praise for doing the most obvious things imaginable.
And, no, this isn't me saying that gameplans are this simple. It's me saying that these kind of matchups exists every week in every game, and coaches completely ignore them. New England never does.
Update: The Patriots had a 21-point lead and went from 41 passes vs. 17 rushes to 51 passes vs. 22 rushes. Because they freaking understand matchups.
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and then you have Pittsburgh:
Warren SharpVerified account @SharpFootball
Said this all week. Todd Haley is an arrogant play caller who thinks he will beat you by having better players. Seemingly minimal desire to adjust offense to attack opponent weakness. The canyon between the Patriots & the Steelers in this regard is as wide as earthly possible.
If you've enjoyed the Steelers offense the past 5 years, just imagine how good it would look with Kyle Shanahan, Josh McDaniels, Sean McVay, Pat Shurmur (or a number of other coordinators who adapt to attack opposing weaknesses) calling plays.
Le'Veon Bell is averaging 5.8 yards per rush. The Steelers called 8 straight passes. One was a near interception. One was a sack-fumble returned for TD. Most were passes with empty backfields, giving the Jaguars zero run/pass conflict.
A real life Groundhog Day in the first half:
21 Ben passes vs the #1 pass D
8 Bell runs
Bell is averaging 5.8 YPC
Roethlisberger has 2 turnovers
I think we know who plays the rodent in this one.
On early downs in the first half:
*Haley went 74% pass.
*Bell posted 8.2 YPC and was successful on 50% of his runs.
*Ben dropped back 17 times:
--35% success rate
--2 sacks
--2 turnovers
--Another pseudo-turnover on downs via horrific 4th down play call.
Pats still have the advantage at QBKnock the crap out of Brady, take some penalties and you got a chance. Make him feel 70.
That's not the betting public. That's the sharps pouunding it before it gets out of line.Line at 9.5 at my book now... crazy. No respect for Jags among betting public.