2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (5 Viewers)

fatguyinalittlecoat said:

As far as I know none of the 2020 contenders have called for impeachment because they're all scared. My prediction is that one of them will very soon, because that's a way to attract attention to his or her campaign, and it also happens to be what Democratic primary voters want.  And then the floodgates will open and most of them will adopt that position.

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fatguyinalittlecoat said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-impeachment.amp.html

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timschochet said:

Kamala Harris is now the 2nd candidate to call for immediate impeachment proceedings. 

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Sinn Fein said:

I thought this was a pretty good point by Psycho Joe this morning:

.@JoeNBC on Sen. Warren's presidential campaign: "It is a message for all candidates out there, that sometimes having the most specific policy platform may not be the best thing."

After showing poll results where Warren lags far behind the front runners in neighboring state New Hampshire.

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NCCommish said:

Hard to be more policy oriented than Bernie. Last I checked he was leading an ever growing number of polls. It isn't about her being a policy wonk. 

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Sinn Fein said:

I think that is part of it.  I get that nobody "likes" her (I like her...) but part of that is getting too deep into the weeds.

I feel bad for her - I think she is currently the hardest working person on the trail.  If she had put this much energy into running in 2016, she would be president right now.

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Juxtatarot said:

I'm fascinated by Beto's decision to continue to lay low.  Surely he had the opportunity to have his hour on the CNN town halls last night but must have decided against it. 

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prefontaine said:

He somewhat did the same thing in the Senate race. He did just a ton of town halls but was fairly selective with press events and towards the end was eschewing national press entirely. I'm not sure the strategy to it honestly. 

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fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Avoiding too much national press is actually somewhat common among politicians running for Congress.  They don’t want voters in their state or district to feel like they’re being supported by outsiders.  Not sure about it as a Presidential strategy though.

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NCCommish said:

So Mitch just threw cold water on all the people thinking they were the ones who were going to hold hands,  sing kumbaya and could make a deal with the Republicans. He said if reelected he would block all the proposals Democrats put forward. So there you go. There is no working with that. There is only beating it.

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NCCommish said:

So Mitch just threw cold water on all the people thinking they were the ones who were going to hold hands,  sing kumbaya and could make a deal with the Republicans. He said if reelected he would block all the proposals Democrats put forward. So there you go. There is no working with that. There is only beating it.

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"We are having a legitimate debate about the virtues of socialism, and I don't want you to think it's just a 28-year-old congresswoman from New York. This is much broader than that. I've got five colleagues in the Senate – five colleagues running for president – who have signed on to the Green New Deal and Medicare For All," McConnell said. "I don't want you to think this is just a couple of nutcases running around on the fringe. This is pervasive policy view on the other side.”

"Are we going to turn this into a socialist country? Don't assume it cannot happen," he added. "If I'm still the majority leader of the Senate, think of me as the 'Grim Reaper.' None of that stuff is going to pass – none of it."

McConnell’s vow to block hypothetical Democratic legislation two years from now is an ironic turn for a Republican who just weeks earlier complained of unfair obstruction by Democrats.

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TobiasFunke said:

Condolences to those four people.

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lardonastick said:

Minorities, older adults boost Biden atop 2020 Democratic field: Reuters/Ipsos poll


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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Vice President Joe Biden, expected to declare his run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday, leads all other candidates in the race and draws his strongest levels of support from minorities and older adults, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll.

The April 17-23 poll released on Wednesday focused on the vote preferences of 2,237 Democrats and independents: the two groups that may select the Democratic nominee in most of the statewide contests ahead of the 2020 general election.

According to the poll, 24 percent would vote for Biden over 19 other declared and potential candidates.

Another 15 percent said they would support U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who ran a competitive campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2016.

No other candidate received more than 7 percent of public support, and 21 percent said they “don’t know” which candidate they would back in a primary.

The poll measures how potential voters feel right now. Many may change their minds as they become better acquainted with the candidates. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 2 percentage points for the combined group of Democrats and independents.

The statewide nominating contests will kick off in early February next year, led by Iowa.

Biden, 76, who has sought the Democratic presidential nomination twice before, remains widely popular since he left the White House in 2016 after two terms as vice president. The former longtime U.S. senator will announce he is seeking the Democratic nomination reut.rs/2IAxNys on Thursday, a source familiar with the plans said on Tuesday.

Sixty-three percent of all Americans say they have a “favorable” impression of Biden, including 88 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 39 percent of Republicans.

In comparison, 58 percent of Americans said they have a favorable view of Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Indiana, whose upstart campaign has out-raised some of his more established rivals this year.

All three appear to have stronger bipartisan appeal than Republican President Donald Trump. According to the poll, 44 percent of all adults said they have a generally favorable view of Trump.

Biden receives his strongest levels of support from older adults and minorities.

Thirty-two percent of adults who are 55 years old and older said they would vote for Biden over other candidates. And 30 percent of nonwhite adults, including about 4 in 10 African-Americans, said they would back Biden for the nomination.

The poll shows that at this early stage of the presidential campaign, Americans say they will vote for candidates who have been in the national spotlight for a long time.

Their preferences may change once they get to know other candidates for the Democratic nomination.

More than 80 percent of Democrats said they were at least “somewhat familiar” with Biden and Sanders.

Sixty-seven percent of Democrats were familiar with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and about half said they were familiar with former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas or U.S. Senators Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey.

The rest of the field appears to be largely unknown by a majority of Democrats.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 4,018 adults in all, including 1,449 Democrats, 1,437 Republicans and 788 independents.
Link to poll

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timschochet said:

Ive been watching these grass roots women on MSNBC- they are VERY clear that they want a woman as their next President. They claim that is their first priority.

Interesting to see how powerful this movement is...

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timschochet said:

Ive been watching these grass roots women on MSNBC- they are VERY clear that they want a woman as their next President. They claim that is their first priority.

Interesting to see how powerful this movement is...

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Sinn Fein said:

Joe Biden - Announcement video

I know its early - less than 10,000 views as I type this - but the number of "dislikes" on the video is interesting.

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SoBeDad said:

He can beat Trump. That checks the first box. The campaign speeches and debates will reveal if he has slowed down, which is a slight concern at his age. 

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timschochet said:

Ive been watching these grass roots women on MSNBC- they are VERY clear that they want a woman as their next President. They claim that is their first priority.

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Slapdash said:

People digging in like this so early are the real problem Democrats face...

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NCCommish said:

Yeah wait until they start with his record. Anita Hill and his stance against desegregation incoming. Amongst other things. And starting with a Trump bad video is probably not the best entry. Give us reasons to vote for you beyond I'm not Trump.

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NCCommish said:

Thing is, as I mentioned this doesn't actually reflect a majority opinion even among likely female Democratic primary voters. Over 60% of the women polled didnt care about gender of the candidate. Obviously if a strong female candidate rises women would like that but it isn't their primary concern. 

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Slapdash said:

People digging in like this so early are the real problem Democrats face...

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Slapdash said:

Not a majority, no, but small margins matter.  As we saw in 2016, lack of turnout by even just tens of thousands of democrats can had the country to Trump again....

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Sinn Fein said:

Digging in early is not necessarily the problem - its when you keep digging late, that it is a problem.

But, I do think the optics are not great for the Dems with the 3 early front runners being two old white guys, and a young white guy.  And, I think that will change over the next few months.  I do expect there will be a woman on the ticket - just not sure it will be the top of the ticket.

I still would put Harris as someone who will be a major factor in the race. Warren should be doing better than she is currently doing - I like her, but maybe she is better in the Senate.  Klobuchar is someone that needs to make a big move in the debates this summer - she needs to be battling Pete for the Mid-west voters.  The other female contenders - GIllibrand and Gabbard - I think they will be effectively out after the debates this summer.

 

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SoBeDad said:

According to Nate, he's the best head-to-head candidate versus Trump. A lot can change in the next 6 months.

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Sinn Fein said:

With Biden jumping in, I think we are full in the Dem race.  I don't see anyone else significant jumping in - Abrams might be the only significant person left who could make a dent, but I don't think she will jump in.

My gut tells me that this is a two-horse race, with a few outsiders with a real chance of winning.

Best Bets

Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg

I think this is where the real race will happen.  I think both are formidable candidates, who each have strengths to play to - and will have the financial strength to go all the way to the convention.  I think Harris is the more traditional candidate - coming from a Congressional background.  As the crowd thins in the primary race, I think she will benefit as the last woman standing, and as a minority, I think that will help in urban areas.  Buttigieg is more than the flavor of the month.  I think he has struck a nerve with voters - and he has the best clarity/authenticity in messaging.  And, that is important.  I think his support will continue to grow as more people see and hear him speak.  He will also have the financing to go all the way.  

I am sure this is a little confounding to some - given that neither are particularly close in the polling to Biden and Sanders - but my instincts say that Harris and Buttigieg have plenty of room to rise as voters get to know them - while Biden and Sanders have really reached their peak.

2nd Tier

Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O'Rourke

The race is so early, but it feels like each of these candidates have some element of electability, but I think they have been overshadowed in the race by Biden and Sanders, and to a lesser extent Harris and Buttigieg.  As the campaign gears up this summer, and into the fall, I'd give a slight edge to Klobuchar and Booker to make some noise in the Senate that helps their campaign - Beto is going to have to figure out a way to pass Buttigieg without the benefit of Congressional hearings - might be a tough ask.  Of this group - I favor them in the order listed.

Sell Now

Warren - 71 at election
Sanders - 79 at election
Biden - 77 at election (78 less than a month later)

Sanders and Biden are the current front-runners - by a fairly comfortable margin in most polls.  But that comes with virtually 100% name recognition.  They are setting the early pace, but will tire by the time they finish the backstretch.

Sanders is virtually locked in with 20% of the vote - his base is extremely loyal, and he'll pick up a few votes beyond that.  

He can't win the Democratic nomination unless he gets 50% of the delegates, and he is not going to get 50% of the delegates - not with a field this big.  So, he is out on his feet right now, and nobody has the heart to tell him.  Nor should they - Sanders is a good man, with good ideas, and his voice is important to the process.  Just look at where many of the Dems in the race are today as a result of Sanders in 2016.

Biden is a sentimental choice - but he is also an easy target for Trump, and he is an easy target for the other Dem candidates for many of the positions he has taken over the years.  And, with both Biden and Sanders - I think the younger candidates will really drive home the generational-gap, and the need for new leadership.  I feel very strongly that message will stick by the time the primaries roll around, and voters will be moving towards a younger candidate of their choice.

Warren - it is a real shame she chose to sit out in 2016.  I imagine there was some pressure from Clinton/Party loyalists, but Warren's best chance to win the nomination was in 2016.  She should still be a strong voice for Bank reform and consumer protections in the Senate.

Everyone else is just in the race to make a name for themselves, I don't think we will see anyone else get close to the nomination.

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eoMMan said:

I'm out on anyone over 70.

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eoMMan said:

I'm out on anyone over 70.

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NCCommish said:

Yeah I of course completely disagree but I appreciate the effort.

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Dan Lambskin said:

Joe out there on twitter begging for campaign contributions is kinda off putting 

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TobiasFunke said:

They all do this.  I suspect you're just seeing Joe's plea because Twitter's algorithm thinks you and he are a match. Do you by any chance own a Camaro?

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Sinn Fein said:

With Biden jumping in, I think we are full in the Dem race.  I don't see anyone else significant jumping in - Abrams might be the only significant person left who could make a dent, but I don't think she will jump in.

My gut tells me that this is a two-horse race, with a few outsiders with a real chance of winning.

Best Bets

Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg

I think this is where the real race will happen.  I think both are formidable candidates, who each have strengths to play to - and will have the financial strength to go all the way to the convention.  I think Harris is the more traditional candidate - coming from a Congressional background.  As the crowd thins in the primary race, I think she will benefit as the last woman standing, and as a minority, I think that will help in urban areas.  Buttigieg is more than the flavor of the month.  I think he has struck a nerve with voters - and he has the best clarity/authenticity in messaging.  And, that is important.  I think his support will continue to grow as more people see and hear him speak.  He will also have the financing to go all the way.  

I am sure this is a little confounding to some - given that neither are particularly close in the polling to Biden and Sanders - but my instincts say that Harris and Buttigieg have plenty of room to rise as voters get to know them - while Biden and Sanders have really reached their peak.

2nd Tier

Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O'Rourke

The race is so early, but it feels like each of these candidates have some element of electability, but I think they have been overshadowed in the race by Biden and Sanders, and to a lesser extent Harris and Buttigieg.  As the campaign gears up this summer, and into the fall, I'd give a slight edge to Klobuchar and Booker to make some noise in the Senate that helps their campaign - Beto is going to have to figure out a way to pass Buttigieg without the benefit of Congressional hearings - might be a tough ask.  Of this group - I favor them in the order listed.

Sell Now

Warren - 71 at election
Sanders - 79 at election
Biden - 77 at election (78 less than a month later)

Sanders and Biden are the current front-runners - by a fairly comfortable margin in most polls.  But that comes with virtually 100% name recognition.  They are setting the early pace, but will tire by the time they finish the backstretch.

Sanders is virtually locked in with 20% of the vote - his base is extremely loyal, and he'll pick up a few votes beyond that.  

He can't win the Democratic nomination unless he gets 50% of the delegates, and he is not going to get 50% of the delegates - not with a field this big.  So, he is out on his feet right now, and nobody has the heart to tell him.  Nor should they - Sanders is a good man, with good ideas, and his voice is important to the process.  Just look at where many of the Dems in the race are today as a result of Sanders in 2016.

Biden is a sentimental choice - but he is also an easy target for Trump, and he is an easy target for the other Dem candidates for many of the positions he has taken over the years.  And, with both Biden and Sanders - I think the younger candidates will really drive home the generational-gap, and the need for new leadership.  I feel very strongly that message will stick by the time the primaries roll around, and voters will be moving towards a younger candidate of their choice.

Warren - it is a real shame she chose to sit out in 2016.  I imagine there was some pressure from Clinton/Party loyalists, but Warren's best chance to win the nomination was in 2016.  She should still be a strong voice for Bank reform and consumer protections in the Senate.

Everyone else is just in the race to make a name for themselves, I don't think we will see anyone else get close to the nomination.

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Sinn Fein said:

I knew that you would - I tried to put the Sanders stuff in a spoiler - but the stupid formatting would not let me....

What do you see as Bernie's path to the nomination?  How does he get to 50% of the delegates?

I do think the campaign will thin considerably by the end of the summer - but, it would not be reaching too much to see a 25-25-20-20 and change (Bernie, Biden, Harris, Buttigieg) split among delegates by the time of the convention - as I see all of them being able to fundraise to the end.  And, if anyone would break from the pack, I think it is more likely that it will be a lesser known candidate than Bernie or Biden.

Certainly it is a very long way until anyone casts a vote - and many things will happen in the meantime - but as I sit here today, I don't see how Bernie recaptures the magic of 2016, and builds momentum into the primaries/caucuses.  (Same thing with Biden).

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NCCommish said:

I think this idea he's at his ceiling is wrong. I think we'll pretty quickly get down to 2. Bernie and an "centrist" candidate. And then we'll see. 

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AAABatteries said:

I'm still puzzled by your crystal ball when it comes to Bernie - he consistently polls as the most liked politician.  Most of the policies he pushes poll very favorably and would bring in Independents and some Republicans.  He was the runner up last time to a person who had the entire weight of the DNC behind them and with little name recognition.  He's leading in several states and as NCC points out is outperforming Trump in swing midwestern states. The idea that Booker and Beto rank higher just seems like what you want to happen versus reality.  And don't get me wrong - I have no delusions he'll win but I could easily see him coming in 2nd again to whoever the DNC eventually decides to put their weight behind.

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TobiasFunke said:

They all do this.  I suspect you're just seeing Joe's plea because Twitter's algorithm thinks you and he are a match. Do you by any chance own a Camaro?

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Sinn Fein said:

Nate Silver's Tiers:

1a  Biden

1b  Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg

2a  Warren, O’Rourke

2b  Booker, Klobuchar, Abrams*

3a  Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee, Yang

3b  Bennet*, Hickenlooper, Ryan, Bullock*

* Candidate is not yet officially running but is reasonably likely to do so.

That is not too far off my thoughts - except that I expect Sanders and Biden to fade as the campaign goes on.  I do think the nominee will be among the 8 candidates in the top-2 tiers.

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NCCommish said:

You are certainly married to this Bernie fade thing. The polling suggests the opposite as he keeps picking up support especially in early primary states. And he shows strong support in states the Democrats have to flip back.

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Sinn Fein said:

He is a good candidate - I don't dislike Bernie at all.

I just think when people start paying attention - its going to be a younger candidate that wins the day.

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Sinn Fein said:

Biden is a sentimental choice - but he is also an easy target for Trump, and he is an easy target for the other Dem candidates for many of the positions he has taken over the years.  And, with both Biden and Sanders - I think the younger candidates will really drive home the generational-gap, and the need for new leadership.  I feel very strongly that message will stick by the time the primaries roll around, and voters will be moving towards a younger candidate of their choice.

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