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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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10 minutes ago, Trey said:

But there’s an eternity between now and November. 

:goodposting:

There's only one "poll" that matters. Let's see where things stand in November before anyone gets happy/sad.

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13 minutes ago, Trey said:

But there’s an eternity between now and November. 

Yeap. JMO but Trump really got exposed with his Daily Coronavirus press conferences. People who weren't paying attention to politics yet were watching those. I think people came away from those thinking. Really this is our president?

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From Sportsbook.ag:

Biden -160
Trump +140

It was -135/+115 on Friday.  :coffee:

 

For some hotly contested states:

Florida is dead even.  -115 for each.  That's changed.
Pennsylvania is Biden -215/Trump +170 echoing what @Trey is saying.
Biden now the favorite (and in some cases a heavy favorite) in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Having been burned by these before, I am not getting my hopes up again, but still, gotta like the way they are trending.

 

 

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The Marquette Law poll is a pretty respected one in Wisconsin politics and it's interesting to note that their four previous polls had it Biden plus 3, plus 3, even and plus 4 (now plus 8). Things continue to look worse for the incumbent.

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Trey said:


Today’s polls are an absolute blood bath for Trump and they are from top of the line polling outfits.

Biden +14 nationally in NYT/Siena


This poll also shows a statistical dead heat.......among white voters. Ouch.

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Q poll of Ohio:

Biden 46

Trump 45
 

Wide playing field developing for 2020. 

 

 

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Key takeaway from that NYT/Siena poll: 55% of registered voters said there is at least some chance they would support Biden in the election. 55% of voters said there is "not really any chance" they would vote for Trump in November.

That may not be recoverable for Trump.

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4 hours ago, ren hoek said:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs0624release/18307fed6cb2dc5a/full.pdf

Cool, more polls that don't reference 3rd party candidates by name and only highlight the red/blue turd option.  

I'd guess "another candidate" would poll better than any specific candidate.  And 3% seems historically about right for right now with the real number probably about half that.  Which 3rd party candidate would trigger a more positive response?   Or is the complaint not that the polling is going to undervalue a 3rd party candidate but failing to put their name out to generate some name recognition?  

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Fox poll:

FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45 
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

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33 minutes ago, caustic said:

Fox poll:

FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45 
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

If I put on my super cynical robe and wizard hat, I'd say Fox is jerryrigging these results 1) to add an extra point of irritation to the constant stream of irritation they direct at their viewership to keep them engaged with the network 2) to drive conservative voter turnout due to concern over Trump's standing in the "bogus" polling numbers.

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8 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

If I put on my super cynical robe and wizard hat, I'd say Fox is jerryrigging these results 1) to add an extra point of irritation to the constant stream of irritation they direct at their viewership to keep them engaged with the network 2) to drive conservative voter turnout due to concern over Trump's standing in the "bogus" polling numbers.

Fox’s polling outfit is actually excellent and separate from their politics.

 The polls in these last few days are obviously only a snapshot but the picture painted is really something. The map of tossups and leans would be huge if tomorrow was Election Day.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Trey said:

Fox’s polling outfit is actually excellent and separate from their politics.

 The polls in these last few days are obviously only a snapshot but the picture painted is really something. The map of tossups and leans would be huge if tomorrow was Election Day.

 

To support that - from Nate Silver -

"So our averages are not *quite* as optimistic as Fox on Biden in the South. But keep in mind that many polls now (like these Fox News polls) were conducted among registered voters. Our averages make a likely voter adjustment to those, which helps Trump by ~1 point or so."

--

As you said, if election day were tomorrow, this wouldn't be particularly close. But 5 months is a long time.

Edited by whoknew

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Biden should definitely win but it will be much closer than the polls are showing now IMO.

There’s no way Biden is winning Texas. I’d think Ohio and Florida still go to Trump.

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7 minutes ago, The General said:

Biden should definitely win but it will be much closer than the polls are showing now IMO.

There’s no way Biden is winning Texas. I’d think Ohio and Florida still go to Trump.

Florida's gonna be close. But Amendment 4 felon voting (if DeSantis loses the appeal) and a big vote by mail advantage gives me hope: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-dems-get-advantage-over-gop-in-vote-by-mail-requests/2253384/%3famp

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Posted (edited)
On 6/24/2020 at 12:43 PM, Gr00vus said:

:goodposting:

There's only one "poll" that matters. Let's see where things stand in November before anyone gets happy/sad.

I agree things can happen, even a bad debate in the fall could change voters minds a good chunk.  I am always surprised by the number of highly opinionated voters who say they don’t watch any news and support Trump. Probably couldn’t  tell you which country Trump was impeached for quid pro quo.

Edited by lazyike

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Quote

 

“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.

Nunberg pointed to national polls released by CNBC and New York Times/Siena over the past week showing Trump receiving below 40 percent against Biden.

If Trump's numbers erode to 35 percentage points over the next two weeks, Nunberg added, “He’s going to be facing realistically a 400-plus electoral vote loss and the president would need to strongly reconsider whether he wants to continue to run as the Republican presidential nominee.”

 

This comes at the same time Christie says: 

“(President Trump) is losing and if he doesn’t change course, both in terms of the substance of what he is discussing and the way that he approaches the American people, then he will lose,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says on national polls

 

That is really a fascinating question - would Trump rather step-aside, and guarantee being a 1-term president, or would he prefer to stick it out, with a non-zero chance that he loses in a landslide?

 Polls are still very malleable right now, but they are starting to stiffen.  Trump probably has a window of 2-3 weeks before he (and the Republicans) are all-in on an election choice.  A "health Issue" would seem to be the way out, if President Trump opts for that route.

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On 6/24/2020 at 1:43 PM, Gr00vus said:

:goodposting:

There's only one "poll" that matters. Let's see where things stand in November before anyone gets happy/sad.

No matter what the polls say now, I still think it'll come down to what the economy and coronavirus look like in November.

Trump is at such a low point right now, it must be taken with a grain of salt. In fact, it could help him. Every ounce of good news in terms of the economy and coronavirus will look like momentum for him.  

He just needs a little momentum and sticking with scaring people about those radical lefties. And if you thought the last minute BS thrown at Hillary is bad, this time he's got Barr. And of course, a handful of countries that hate the US that want him to win. 

Of all the things we've seen this man bounce back from, all the times we've thought "oh, he's not coming back from this", he can absolutely never be counted out.

 

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1 minute ago, pollardsvision said:

No matter what the polls say now, I still think it'll come down to what the economy and coronavirus look like in November.

There is merit to this, but I’m pretty confident that the economy and the virus will still be awful in November.

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Just now, bigbottom said:

Investors who are all in on Zoom and Amazon. 

Touché :lol:

Sprinkled with some CYDY

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On 6/25/2020 at 7:49 PM, The General said:

Biden should definitely win but it will be much closer than the polls are showing now IMO.

There’s no way Biden is winning Texas. I’d think Ohio and Florida still go to Trump.

I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him.  The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had. 
 

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32 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him.  The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had. 
 

Music to my ears.

In the past couple weeks alone he has pushed himself to the right of NASCAR with the as you pointed out many republican leaders on this mask stuff.

The mask wearing is especially weird. It makes no sense but have at it Don.

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19 hours ago, cheese said:

I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him.  The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had. 
 

The mask thing doesn't play well with my dad (2016 Trump voter in a swing state). The first negative thing he ever said about Trump was when Trump made fun of Biden for wearing a mask.  

The war on mail-in votes thing, imo, is a similar mistake for Trump. Aside from being proof that the great "change agent swamp drainer" is just another politician that only cares about getting re-elected, a war against mail-in votes alienates older voters.

Moderate older voters could stomach the rhetoric for a good economy, but now he's threatening their health. 

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And it would have been really awesome if Trump had adjusted his conspiracy theory a little bit.

We all know the democrats planned all of this to stop Trump, of course. But what if he added that the democrats cooked up the virus to literally kill off Trump voters in swing states.

Had he gone that route, we'd have MAGA armed guards outside of store fronts demanding people wear a mask. 

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23 hours ago, cheese said:

I think he’s making a big mistake with his war on masks (and coronavirus i general) in Ohio. We have popular republican leaders all going against him.  The center of the political spectrum is against him. The only people who agree with him are the “freedom!” Voters that he already had. 
 

And speaking of, Nate Silver thinks the single best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances is to tell people to wear masks.

I wonder what the chances are he'd actually do it. I'd have to think almost zero.

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5 hours ago, pollardsvision said:

The mask thing doesn't play well with my dad (2016 Trump voter in a swing state). The first negative thing he ever said about Trump was when Trump made fun of Biden for wearing a mask.  

The war on mail-in votes thing, imo, is a similar mistake for Trump. Aside from being proof that the great "change agent swamp drainer" is just another politician that only cares about getting re-elected, a war against mail-in votes alienates older voters.

Moderate older voters could stomach the rhetoric for a good economy, but now he's threatening their health. 

As of May, Dewine (republican gov) had 86% approval for his handling of coronavirus. That includes massive support from Ohio republicans. He did that by taking it seriously and having a balanced plan that he communicated every single day. There may be states where Trump’s tough-guy act is popular, but not in Ohio. 

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There seems to be an inconsistency (potential arbitrage opportunity?) at electionbettingodds.

Democrats are about 60-40 against Republicans to win the White House.

Democrats are also about 60-40 against Republicans to win Florida's electoral college votes.

I don't see how those two things add up. It seems like there are plenty of ways for the Democrats to lose Florida but still win the White House, but basically no ways for the Republicans to do the same. The Democrats' chances of winning the White House should therefore be significantly higher than their chances of winning Florida, right?

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13 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

There seems to be an inconsistency (potential arbitrage opportunity?) at electionbettingodds.

Democrats are about 60-40 against Republicans to win the White House.

Democrats are also about 60-40 against Republicans to win Florida's electoral college votes.

I don't see how those two things add up. It seems like there are plenty of ways for the Democrats to lose Florida but still win the White House, but basically no ways for the Republicans to do the same. The Democrats' chances of winning the White House should therefore be significantly higher than their chances of winning Florida, right?

Yes

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I saw that Trump is accusing statue removers of, and this is a direct quote, "trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities."

It's a statue of a dead white guy, and likely one who supported owning another human being. That part of history should absolutely never be memorialized.

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4 hours ago, Kal El said:

I saw that Trump is accusing statue removers of, and this is a direct quote, "trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities."

It's a statue of a dead white guy, and likely one who supported owning another human being. That part of history should absolutely never be memorialized.

There have been a few outliers, but overwhelmingly we are talking about statues of Confederate leaders. They are traitors to the USA, not founding fathers. 

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2 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

There have been a few outliers, but overwhelmingly we are talking about statues of Confederate leaders. They are traitors to the USA, not founding fathers. 

The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?

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17 minutes ago, Kal El said:

The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?

Treason loves company?

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2 minutes ago, beef said:

Treason loves company?

Honestly, this might be more accurate than we want it to be. Isn't that white nationalist guy still close to Trump?

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2 hours ago, Kal El said:

The more pertinent question is: Why is Trump apparently so dead set on trying to keep statues of dead traitors around, then?

Because the fight gets people riled up. White backlash is what swept him into office in 2016, and it’s the only thing that can keep him there for another four years. 

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18 minutes ago, caustic said:

Because the fight gets people riled up. White backlash is what swept him into office in 2016, and it’s the only thing that can keep him there for another four years. 

Then he's in trouble, because I'm seeing his numbers dropping across the board, especially in battleground states. Almost nobody is happy with how he's botched, well he's botched everything,but most especially the federal pandemic "response." Sure, he's got his base, but pretty much nobody else. That's not a way to win reelection.

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i have to believe that somewhere in the Lincoln Group, or another of the cartels looking to rehab the Republican reputation, is a late-run instaparty if it is determined that the President has finally gone a bridge too far or Biden stumbles out the gate. IIRC (i covered Eugene McCarthy's entertainment of a late candidacy in '76), the 2nd week of August is as late as a "party" can wait (even if the prep work is done and $$ is not a concern) and still get on enough ballots to have a chance to win. i'd put the odds of such a bid at under +5.00, if only to cast the Trump shadow from the next national election if it is felt that all is lost. stasis is still what Big Money wants.

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:

AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)

 

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:

Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

...based on demographic change alone.

 

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1 hour ago, The Gator said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:

AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)

 

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:

Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

...based on demographic change alone.

 

But muh SiLeNt MaJoRiTy!!!

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15 hours ago, The Gator said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens, including:

AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)

 

By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:

Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

...based on demographic change alone.

 

That's encouraging, especially coming from Wasserman, who is much less apt to spin optimism for Democrats than other election scientists. Demographers have been on this trend for three years and the trends are only gonna worsen for Trump Republicans in the coming decade. I actually expect voting participation to increase among non-college whites (this is even more of a Flight 93 election for them than 2016 was) and non-whites (who like Biden better than they liked Hilary). 

Voting percentages won't stay the same this November, though. The yoots will probably have record turnout -- though probably still the lowest -- and suburban women have deserted Donald bigly.

Repeating myself here but just because our board Trumpers don't want to consider the numbers doesn't mean that GOP leaders don't understand them. McConnell has been packing the courts precisely because he's worried about the next half dozen election cycles.

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Speaking of Wasserman, his Cook Political Report has changed its ratings in several key states/districts.

Quote

 

We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality. 

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category. 

Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida. 

Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican. 

These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279). 

 

 

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2 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

McConnell has been packing the courts precisely because he's worried about the next half dozen election cycles.

I feel like we're pretty lucky that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were Trump's two picks. They're both serious, qualified judges who try to get the legally correct answers to the questions before them.

Trump initially picked some responsible people for other positions as well -- Mattis is the most obvious example, though there are plenty of others -- but he's generally replaced them with less competent people over time, valuing loyalty over expertise.

I assume and fear that he'd go in the same direction with any future Supreme Court nominations, possibly naming Neomi Rao, William Barr, Rudy Giuliani or the like...

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