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QB Kyler Murray, ARZ (2 Viewers)

Whelp, I have a lot of shares of Kyler in cheaper leagues but used the quiet week 2 preseason game to finally snag him in one of the high stakes league.  I still overpaid, but this guy was not dealing at all a week ago.

Gave: Wilson, Duke, 2020 2nd (late)

Got: Kyler, 2020 3rd

This is the best I've ever felt about overpaying for a guy I liked, and I've had some overpays really work out in the past.  The tough thing about Murray is I think he's a good buy as a future stud but in most of the leagues where I don't have him the guy who took him feels the same way about him.  It makes buying low tough.

 
have him on one ffpc team...

Whelp, I have a lot of shares of Kyler in cheaper leagues but used the quiet week 2 preseason game to finally snag him in one of the high stakes league.  I still overpaid, but this guy was not dealing at all a week ago.

Gave: Wilson, Duke, 2020 2nd (late)

Got: Kyler, 2020 3rd

This is the best I've ever felt about overpaying for a guy I liked, and I've had some overpays really work out in the past.  The tough thing about Murray is I think he's a good buy as a future stud but in most of the leagues where I don't have him the guy who took him feels the same way about him.  It makes buying low tough.
have him on one ffpc team... got him in the 14th on the dip.  we will see if he has any value at all.  not sold right now in re-draft or dynasty... but if you can get him at the right price worth the gamble IMO.

 
Whelp, I have a lot of shares of Kyler in cheaper leagues but used the quiet week 2 preseason game to finally snag him in one of the high stakes league.  I still overpaid, but this guy was not dealing at all a week ago.

Gave: Wilson, Duke, 2020 2nd (late)

Got: Kyler, 2020 3rd

This is the best I've ever felt about overpaying for a guy I liked, and I've had some overpays really work out in the past.  The tough thing about Murray is I think he's a good buy as a future stud but in most of the leagues where I don't have him the guy who took him feels the same way about him.  It makes buying low tough.
You have to overpay sometimes. I had to overpay in my dynasty as well. 

 
He showed more in the 3rd preseason game but admittingly he doesn't look 100% settled in yet. He's made some good throws down the field but he's more accurate than he showed so far. 

 
He showed more in the 3rd preseason game but admittingly he doesn't look 100% settled in yet. He's made some good throws down the field but he's more accurate than he showed so far. 
Definitely not the panic from week 2.

Murray is a rookie qb. Hes going to have some growing pains. I hope once the training wheels are off the offense that he will really have fun. Hes a very accurate qb, and accuracy has proven to correlate with NFL success for the most part. 

 
Whelp, I have a lot of shares of Kyler in cheaper leagues but used the quiet week 2 preseason game to finally snag him in one of the high stakes league.  I still overpaid, but this guy was not dealing at all a week ago.

Gave: Wilson, Duke, 2020 2nd (late)

Got: Kyler, 2020 3rd

This is the best I've ever felt about overpaying for a guy I liked, and I've had some overpays really work out in the past.  The tough thing about Murray is I think he's a good buy as a future stud but in most of the leagues where I don't have him the guy who took him feels the same way about him.  It makes buying low tough.
I dont mind this, especially for a guy you like

 
Definitely not the panic from week 2.

Murray is a rookie qb. Hes going to have some growing pains. I hope once the training wheels are off the offense that he will really have fun. Hes a very accurate qb, and accuracy has proven to correlate with NFL success for the most part. 
I wasn't panicking after week 2. I am downgrading his early production a little but that's just because I haven't seen him settle down yet and do what I know he can do. It might be a little slower start but his rushing numbers will help. Being down 20+ in the 4th will help too. 

 
I wasn't panicking after week 2. I am downgrading his early production a little but that's just because I haven't seen him settle down yet and do what I know he can do. It might be a little slower start but his rushing numbers will help. Being down 20+ in the 4th will help too. 
Not suggesting you were. Some were a little over the top after his week 2.

He has an incredibly high floor with the rushing 

 
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He has an incredibly low floor with the rushing 
Maybe I'm reading that wrong........teams are blitzing them the first couple weeks relentlessly. Once he breaks a few long runs though.....and he will......then the blitzes will be dialed back.......

 
Definitely not the panic from week 2.

Murray is a rookie qb. Hes going to have some growing pains. I hope once the training wheels are off the offense that he will really have fun. Hes a very accurate qb, and accuracy has proven to correlate with NFL success for the most part. 
This has been true throughout at least the recent history of QBs.  It's why Drew Brees is still being drafted in the top 6 at the age of 40..

 
It's the main reason I started warming up to him. 

I found this interesting. has its misses, as anything else, but it quantifies what's been true for decades- accuracy typically leads to success 
Interesting read for sure.  Thanks for sharing.  I've been warming up as well, and this helps.  

I'm looking at......arm talent, running ability,  air raid offense,  game scripts (garbage points).......add in metrics like above, and Im buying if the value is right.

Edit to clarify....I'm talkin redraft 

 
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It's the main reason I started warming up to him. 

I found this interesting. has its misses, as anything else, but it quantifies what's been true for decades- accuracy typically leads to success 
I’ve read a similar article on PFF which says the same thing. It’s interesting.

Tex

 
Maybe I'm reading that wrong........teams are blitzing them the first couple weeks relentlessly. Once he breaks a few long runs though.....and he will......then the blitzes will be dialed back.......
I read an article somewhere which said that he was the most blitz QB in college football yet even when blitz he was the most accurate.

Tex

 
I would but 16 is a bit high.  I like the $12 guys a little better for the money.
I had Cousins as a safe pick, but imo Murrays floor is about where Cousins is priced. 

Seriously considering going for it. 

In their rookie seasons, Cam Newton and RGIII had top 5 finishes. Kyler is better than both

 
I really like Murray this year, but in these types of contests I would rather have 3-4 supper cheap QB's.  I like Dak, Brady, L Jackson at 12 and think they offer similar upside.  

Would also rather have Flacco and Carr for the same price as Murray.  I think the pair combine for a better score than Murray in the most probable scenarios.  

 
I have pretty high projections for Murray this year, but it seems tenuous.

362 completions on 624 attempts for 4300 yards.  25 TD's passing and 19 interceptions.

128 rushes for 832 yards and 6 rushing TD's.  

That's good for QB4 on my board (almost tied with Rodgers for third).  Still struggle to pull the trigger on him in a lot of drafts. 

 
I have pretty high projections for Murray this year, but it seems tenuous.

362 completions on 624 attempts for 4300 yards.  25 TD's passing and 19 interceptions.

128 rushes for 832 yards and 6 rushing TD's.  

That's good for QB4 on my board (almost tied with Rodgers for third).  Still struggle to pull the trigger on him in a lot of drafts. 
Our projections are pretty close. I think he'll throw 30+ TDs and runs little less. 

 
Our projections are pretty close. I think he'll throw 30+ TDs and runs little less. 
I had him more efficient as a passer on my first run, but then he projected out at QB1 and I couldnt do it. 

As far as rushing, I think the rush attempts feels close, maybe he isn't as dynamic as I think he is though.  

 
I had him more efficient as a passer on my first run, but then he projected out at QB1 and I couldnt do it. 

As far as rushing, I think the rush attempts feels close, maybe he isn't as dynamic as I think he is though.  
Yeah when you projected him he hit the #1 QB in FF and you didn't like that. That's understandable. Good luck. 

 
So what's everyone's opinion on how this kids debut goes?  It's not an overly daunting matchup against the Lions, could be a bit of a shootout potential.  I think he does well.

 
It's a good litmus test for the so called defensive expert running the Lions.  He's had a ton of time to prepare for Kyler, let's see if he has any answers as the slight road favorite.

 
ballsy....was thinking over Baker but decided against it
FBG has them about the same this week in my custom cheatsheeta, which I dont follow blindly but I figure Kyler will surprise week 1 since they kept the offense under wraps all preseason. No one knows what to do but blitz. And Kingsbury has to be expecting that. 

 

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