Travdogg's positional rankings from week 13 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Jalen Hurts (2)
2. Josh Allen (1)
3. CJ Stroud (4)
4. Patrick Mahomes (3)
Tier 2:
5. Dak Prescott (9), current QB3 who would be my pick for NFL MVP, he's been on fire since the 49ers game. Only issue is lack of running compared to Hurts/Allen, and less volume than Stroud/Mahomes, due to the Dallas defense.
6. Justin Herbert (6)
7. Lamar Jackson (5)
Tier 3:
8. Justin Fields (8)
9. Tua Tagovailoa (7)
10. Brock Purdy (10)
Tier 4:
11. Kyler Murray (12)
12. Sam Howell (13)
13. Jordan Love (NR), current QB11 has multiple TD's in 4 of last 6 and has been asked to do more with Aaron Jones out.
14. Jared Goff (11), been more like Jared Goof the last 2 weeks with two 3 turnover games, despite being at home.
15. Josh Dobbs (14)

Dropped off: Trevor Lawrence (15), no fault of his own as he's been great these last 2 weeks, but I don't trust these rushing scores, and I think Love has a little more upside due to the Packers lack of running game.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Austin Ekeler (3)
3. Kyren Williams (23), only CMC is averaging more PPG. While his 2 best weeks were both against the Cards, he's never truly busted this season, with 7.7 being his worst week against the #1 run D in the NFL.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (9)
5. Jonathan Taylor (6)
6. Josh Jacobs (15), 24+ touches in 3 of 4 games since McDaniels was fired. At least 127 yards or a TD in those 3 games.
7. Bijan Robinson (7)
8. Breece Hall (5)
Tier 2:
9. David Montgomery (8)
10. Travis Etienne (2), been losing a bit of work to D'Ernest Johnson, and just looks a little sluggish. Wonder if heavy workloads are catching up to him? 3 straight down weeks since the bye.
11. D'Andre Swift (4)
12. Isiah Pacheco (10)
13. Rachaad White (16)
14. Rhamondre Stevenson (17)
15. Javonte Williams (12)
Tier 3:
16. De'Von Achane (22)
17. Alvin Kamara (14)
18. Saquon Barkley (13)
19. Tony Pollard (11), this might surprise some people. He's experienced the TD regression I was expecting, but I'm getting concerned about his workload. He's had IDEAL gamescripts the last 3 weeks and is stuck around 15-ish touches.
20. Devin Singletary (NR), if you just look at the carries you'd think Pierce came back and it was a 50-50 split, but Singletary actually was the clear starter playing 81% of the snaps. Maybe Pierce's role gets bigger as he gets back to health, but why should it?
Tier 4:
21. Raheem Mostert (18)
22. Derrick Henry (19)
23. Jaylen Warren (21)
Tier 5:
24. Brian Robinson (27)
25. Joe Mixon (20)
26. James Conner (25)
Tier 6:
27. James Cook (26)
28. Kenneth Walker (24)
29. Jerome Ford (28)
30. Chuba Hubbard (NR), has looked better than Sanders all season, and had 19 touches last week.

Dropped off: Aaron Jones (29), not sure when he'll be back, and was struggling for value when he was playing. Miles Sanders (30), my gut says Reich's firing leads to Hubbard getting the lead job, as they trend toward the younger/cheaper players. Just a hunch though.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. Justin Jefferson (7)
3. Keenan Allen (2)
4. CeeDee Lamb (3)
5. AJ Brown (4)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (5)
Tier 2:
7. Stefon Diggs (6)
8. Tank Dell (18), WR10 PPG, has been uncoverable the last month, and even this week was fingertips away from another 100 and TD. I was too slow to move him up the ranks, as I've been waiting for the Texans to slow down a bit. I'm glad they aren't as I have Stroud/Dell/Collins shares, but I do wonder if that made me temper expectations a tad.
9. Mike Evans (17), 87 yards or a TD in all but 2 games, he's really distanced himself from Godwin, as TB has mostly become a 2-man offense. I've been too low on him, as I was reluctant to trust Mayfield.
10. Brandon Aiyuk (8)
11. Michael Pittman (19), is due for some TD regression, has 8+ catches in 5 of last 6 games.
Tier 3:
12. Puka Nacua (10)
13. DeVonta Smith (12)
14. Jaylen Waddle (16)
15. Davante Adams (11)
16. Cooper Kupp (13)
Tier 4:
17. Ja'Marr Chase (9), Browning looked bad, and Chase's day was saved by the Steelers tipping 2 INTs directly to Chase. Not counting on that happening again. He's more talented Garrett Wilson.
18. DJ Moore (14)
19. Deebo Samuel (21)
20. Chris Olave (20)
21. DK Metcalf (15)
Tier 5:
22. Nico Collins (24)
23. Calvin Ridley (22)
24. Garrett Wilson (23)
25. Zay Flowers (27)
Tier 6:
26. Courtland Sutton (34), been in denial a little on this one, but 61+ yards or a TD in all but 1 game this season.
27. Christian Kirk (25)
28. Terry McLaurin (31)
29. Hollywood Brown (26)
30. Diontae Johnson (32)
31. Josh Downs (NR), seems mostly over his knee injury after 12 target week. Colts offense is extremely fantasy friendly as they don't bother with ancillary guys.
Tier 7:
32. Jordan Addison (33)
33. Adam Thielen (28)
34. Jayden Reed (NR), seems like the best playmaker in GB. They've been scheming him touches, and his regular targets have also been increasing.
35. DeAndre Hopkins (29)
36. Amari Cooper (35)
37. Tyler Lockett (30)
38. Rashee Rice (39)
39. Drake London (36)
40. Chris Godwin (40)

Dropped off: Tee Higgins (37), Browning looks as bad as expected, and whio knows when his hammy will be right? George Pickens (38), looks like the #3 in a below average passing game.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. TJ Hockenson (2)
3. George Kittle (3)
Tier 2:
4. Sam LaPorta (5)
5. Dalton Kincaid (4)
6. Trey McBride (7)
Tier 3:
7. Pat Freiermuth (NR), I've long thought he should be the centerpiece of the passing game, if not the entire offense. I think its possible with the OC change that this target share can be a little sticky, and with TE as thin as it is, I'm going to rank him aggressively. No reason he isn't the Steelers #1 pass weapon going forward.
8. Taysom Hill (13), all the WRs are banged up, and he's getting the GL work. If the can get just a little more involved in the passing game, without losing any rush work, he could be a tier higher.
9. Dalton Schultz (8)
10. David Njoku (10)
11. Evan Engram (6), 3rd in catches, 5th in yards, but 0 TDs is becoming less of a due for regression and more of a trend. I'm sure he'll catch 1 or 2 at some point, but he's like the 5th option in the redzone.
Tier 4:
12. Jake Ferguson (9)
13. Cole Kmet (11)
14. Dallas Goedert (NR), sounds likely to be back in week 14. Was cut in quite a few leagues I've seen, so could be a sneaky stash. Was TE10 when he went down.
15. Isaiah Likely (15)

Dropped off: Kyle Pitts (12), its probably time to give up the ghost. That 1000 yard rookie season seems like forever ago, even if it was just 2021. Luke Musgrave (14), lacerated kidney feels like a hell of a thing to play through. His absence likely benefits Reed a bit.

 

[need2know]

why is eckler still so high?

thanks for doing these

 

[pinkstapler]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. Justin Jefferson (7)
3. Keenan Allen (2)
4. CeeDee Lamb (3)
5. AJ Brown (4)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (5)
Tier 2:
7. Stefon Diggs (6)
8. Tank Dell (18), WR10 PPG, has been uncoverable the last month, and even this week was fingertips away from another 100 and TD. I was too slow to move him up the ranks, as I've been waiting for the Texans to slow down a bit. I'm glad they aren't as I have Stroud/Dell/Collins shares, but I do wonder if that made me temper expectations a tad.
9. Mike Evans (17), 87 yards or a TD in all but 2 games, he's really distanced himself from Godwin, as TB has mostly become a 2-man offense. I've been too low on him, as I was reluctant to trust Mayfield.
10. Brandon Aiyuk (8)
11. Michael Pittman (19), is due for some TD regression, has 8+ catches in 5 of last 6 games.
Tier 3:
12. Puka Nacua (10)
13. DeVonta Smith (12)
14. Jaylen Waddle (16)
15. Davante Adams (11)
16. Cooper Kupp (13)
Tier 4:
17. Ja'Marr Chase (9), Browning looked bad, and Chase's day was saved by the Steelers tipping 2 INTs directly to Chase. Not counting on that happening again. He's more talented Garrett Wilson.
18. DJ Moore (14)
19. Deebo Samuel (21)
20. Chris Olave (20)
21. DK Metcalf (15)
Tier 5:
22. Nico Collins (24)
23. Calvin Ridley (22)
24. Garrett Wilson (23)
25. Zay Flowers (27)
Tier 6:
26. Courtland Sutton (34), been in denial a little on this one, but 61+ yards or a TD in all but 1 game this season.
27. Christian Kirk (25)
28. Terry McLaurin (31)
29. Hollywood Brown (26)
30. Diontae Johnson (32)
31. Josh Downs (NR), seems mostly over his knee injury after 12 target week. Colts offense is extremely fantasy friendly as they don't bother with ancillary guys.
Tier 7:
32. Jordan Addison (33)
33. Adam Thielen (28)
34. Jayden Reed (NR), seems like the best playmaker in GB. They've been scheming him touches, and his regular targets have also been increasing.
35. DeAndre Hopkins (29)
36. Amari Cooper (35)
37. Tyler Lockett (30)
38. Rashee Rice (39)
39. Drake London (36)
40. Chris Godwin (40)

Dropped off: Tee Higgins (37), Browning looks as bad as expected, and whio knows when his hammy will be right? George Pickens (38), looks like the #3 in a below average passing game.

Been waiting weeks for this lol.

 

[Hartliner]

Everyone should find someone that looks at you, like Travdogg looks at Ekeler.

But yea if trade Deadline didn't already pass I would be dealing Ekeler for any in that tier 1 for sure.
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey
3. Kyren Williams
4. Jahmyr Gibbs
5. Jonathan Taylor
6. Josh Jacobs
7.Bijan Robinson
8.Breece Hall

why is eckler still so high?

thanks for doing these

 

[Tau837]

2. Austin Ekeler (3)

You really have a man crush on Ekeler. In standard PPR:

• He ranks as RB9 in ppg for the season.
• Since returning from his injury in week 6, he ranks as RB13 in ppg.
• Here are his ranks by week this season:
  • Week 1 - RB2
  • Week 6 - RB25
  • Week 7 - RB38
  • Week 8 - RB6
  • Week 9 - RB4
  • Week 10 - RB4
  • Week 11 - RB26
  • Week 12 - RB24

Hard to reconcile that performance with a #2 ranking.

He does have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, is that a big factor in your ranking?

I am a PFF fan. I know not everyone is. Current info on Ekeler's PFF grades:

• Offense (overall) - 58.0, #68 among 75 RBs with at least 25 rushing attempts
• Running - 63.8, #66 among 75 RBs with at least 25 rushing attempts
• Receiving - 46.7, #29 among 31 RBs with at least 25 targets

As a Chargers fan who watches all of their games, I think those grades and ranks seem fairly representative of how he has played this season. Bottom line, he isn't playing well, nor are the Chargers.

I know your rankings are forward-looking fantasy rankings, not backward-looking assessment of real NFL performance, but you appear to be expecting a major turnaround.

 

[Heisenberg23]

why is eckler still so high?

thanks for doing these

was thinking the same --- take away his "name" and should be outside top 10
also thanks for doing these

 

[Desert_Power]

Any takes on Defenses for ROS?

 

[travdogg]

On the Ekeler front, I do agree that he's playing the worst actual football of his career, however, he's seeing an ideal role in the offense, he was a top-6 RB in half his games this season, and has had some bad luck the last 2 games each of which he could have easily had a TD (2 against GB)

I also think his schedule is pristine going forward. One of the issues the last 2 weeks has been the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

I hate 1 man tiers. There is a sizeable drop off from CMC to Ekeler. That said, the role, the schedule, and the player history (and I understand if some think I'm giving too much credit here) suggest a top RB from here going forward. I think he's a great buy-low in leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed (I'm in 1 dynasty where there is no trade deadline and I can't imagine that is the only league like that) and I think the reaction to his rank suggests to me that the price probably won't be all that high.

 

[travdogg]

Any takes on Defenses for ROS?

I'd say my top-10 ROS (with playoff schedule in parenthesis) would be:

1. San Fran (Ari/Bal/Was)
2. NYJ (Mia/Was/Cle)
3. Jacksonville (Bal/TB/Car)
4. Pittsburgh (Ind/Cin/Sea)
5. Philly (Sea/NYG/Ari)
6. KC (NE/LV/Cin)
7. Dallas (Buf/Mia/Det)
8. Baltimore (Jax/SF/Mia)
9. Green Bay (TB/Car/Min)
10. Miami (NYJ/Dal/Bal)

Dallas and Baltimore are probably the best actual defenses, but those schedules certainly aren't ideal.

 

[Tau837]

the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

Uh, have you actually watched the Chargers defense much? They will continue to have trouble getting off the field against every team remaining on their schedule.

 

[Tau837]

On the Ekeler front, I do agree that he's playing the worst actual football of his career, however, he's seeing an ideal role in the offense, he was a top-6 RB in half his games this season, and has had some bad luck the last 2 games each of which he could have easily had a TD (2 against GB)

I also think his schedule is pristine going forward. One of the issues the last 2 weeks has been the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

I hate 1 man tiers. There is a sizeable drop off from CMC to Ekeler. That said, the role, the schedule, and the player history (and I understand if some think I'm giving too much credit here) suggest a top RB from here going forward. I think he's a great buy-low in leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed (I'm in 1 dynasty where there is no trade deadline and I can't imagine that is the only league like that) and I think the reaction to his rank suggests to me that the price probably won't be all that high.

I give you credit for sticking to your guns, but I could not possibly share your optimism that Ekeler will be the #2 fantasy RB in ppg going forward, which is what I believe you are representing with your ranking. Frankly, I don't think he will be close.

You have been consistently ranking him near the top of RB rankings at a level he has not yet justified with performance. So to continue with him at #2, you are necessarily expecting him to outperform his performance to date this season by a healthy margin going forward. I just don't see why you would expect that.

 

[need2know]

Eckler has been awful. I hate I drafted him and wish I had better options. I know I'm not alone but wish I had I better options

 

[travdogg]

On the Ekeler front, I do agree that he's playing the worst actual football of his career, however, he's seeing an ideal role in the offense, he was a top-6 RB in half his games this season, and has had some bad luck the last 2 games each of which he could have easily had a TD (2 against GB)

I also think his schedule is pristine going forward. One of the issues the last 2 weeks has been the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

I hate 1 man tiers. There is a sizeable drop off from CMC to Ekeler. That said, the role, the schedule, and the player history (and I understand if some think I'm giving too much credit here) suggest a top RB from here going forward. I think he's a great buy-low in leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed (I'm in 1 dynasty where there is no trade deadline and I can't imagine that is the only league like that) and I think the reaction to his rank suggests to me that the price probably won't be all that high.

I give you credit for sticking to your guns, but I could not possibly share your optimism that Ekeler will be the #2 fantasy RB in ppg going forward, which is what I believe you are representing with your ranking. Frankly, I don't think he will be close.

You have been consistently ranking him near the top of RB rankings at a level he has not yet justified with performance. So to continue with him at #2, you are necessarily expecting him to outperform his performance to date this season by a healthy margin going forward. I just don't see why you would expect that.

Not necessarily, I think the week 8-10 production is reasonable. He was no lower than RB6 for 3 weeks not that long ago. That was an RB2 pace, sure it was mostly TD based, but that's been a major part of his game for a couple of years now. I think he's been extremely unlucky the last 2 weeks, especially the GB game, where he should have probably had 2 TDs instead of 0.

I think weeks 11-12 are being overweighted because they are the most recent. His role is as good as anyone other than CMC, Josh Jacobs, and perhaps Kyren Williams, and I'm a little more enthused by the Chargers offense than the Raiders and possibly the Rams as well, although its possible Kyren was actually held back slightly in his 1st week back (his lowest snap share of the season) and maybe he's RB2 next week.

ETA: Also if something happened to either Detroit RB, the healthy one would easily jump to RB2.

 

[Tau837]

On the Ekeler front, I do agree that he's playing the worst actual football of his career, however, he's seeing an ideal role in the offense, he was a top-6 RB in half his games this season, and has had some bad luck the last 2 games each of which he could have easily had a TD (2 against GB)

I also think his schedule is pristine going forward. One of the issues the last 2 weeks has been the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

I hate 1 man tiers. There is a sizeable drop off from CMC to Ekeler. That said, the role, the schedule, and the player history (and I understand if some think I'm giving too much credit here) suggest a top RB from here going forward. I think he's a great buy-low in leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed (I'm in 1 dynasty where there is no trade deadline and I can't imagine that is the only league like that) and I think the reaction to his rank suggests to me that the price probably won't be all that high.

I give you credit for sticking to your guns, but I could not possibly share your optimism that Ekeler will be the #2 fantasy RB in ppg going forward, which is what I believe you are representing with your ranking. Frankly, I don't think he will be close.

You have been consistently ranking him near the top of RB rankings at a level he has not yet justified with performance. So to continue with him at #2, you are necessarily expecting him to outperform his performance to date this season by a healthy margin going forward. I just don't see why you would expect that.

Not necessarily, I think the week 8-10 production is reasonable. He was no lower than RB6 for 3 weeks not that long ago. That was an RB2 pace, sure it was mostly TD based, but that's been a major part of his game for a couple of years now. I think he's been extremely unlucky the last 2 weeks, especially the GB game, where he should have probably had 2 TDs instead of 0.

I think weeks 11-12 are being overweighted because they are the most recent. His role is as good as anyone other than CMC, Josh Jacobs, and perhaps Kyren Williams, and I'm a little more enthused by the Chargers offense than the Raiders and possibly the Rams as well, although its possible Kyren was actually held back slightly in his 1st week back (his lowest snap share of the season) and maybe he's RB2 next week.

ETA: Also if something happened to either Detroit RB, the healthy one would easily jump to RB2.

If you average out weeks 1 and 8-10, his average finish was RB4. But that is counterbalanced by weeks 6-7 and 11-12, during which his average finish was RB28. You are zeroing in on his best weeks while completely discounting his poor weeks, which are half of his games.

I hope you are right, as I own Ekeler on one of my dynasty teams. I'm just not optimistic. The Chargers season is in a death spiral right now that is almost certainly going to result in firing the GM and head coach after the season (or maybe sooner). I expect that will have an impact on the field.

 

[travdogg]

On the Ekeler front, I do agree that he's playing the worst actual football of his career, however, he's seeing an ideal role in the offense, he was a top-6 RB in half his games this season, and has had some bad luck the last 2 games each of which he could have easily had a TD (2 against GB)

I also think his schedule is pristine going forward. One of the issues the last 2 weeks has been the Chargers having trouble getting off the field defensively. That won't be a problem against anyone other than Buffalo, and they have a very leaky defense.

I hate 1 man tiers. There is a sizeable drop off from CMC to Ekeler. That said, the role, the schedule, and the player history (and I understand if some think I'm giving too much credit here) suggest a top RB from here going forward. I think he's a great buy-low in leagues where the trade deadline hasn't passed (I'm in 1 dynasty where there is no trade deadline and I can't imagine that is the only league like that) and I think the reaction to his rank suggests to me that the price probably won't be all that high.

I give you credit for sticking to your guns, but I could not possibly share your optimism that Ekeler will be the #2 fantasy RB in ppg going forward, which is what I believe you are representing with your ranking. Frankly, I don't think he will be close.

You have been consistently ranking him near the top of RB rankings at a level he has not yet justified with performance. So to continue with him at #2, you are necessarily expecting him to outperform his performance to date this season by a healthy margin going forward. I just don't see why you would expect that.

Not necessarily, I think the week 8-10 production is reasonable. He was no lower than RB6 for 3 weeks not that long ago. That was an RB2 pace, sure it was mostly TD based, but that's been a major part of his game for a couple of years now. I think he's been extremely unlucky the last 2 weeks, especially the GB game, where he should have probably had 2 TDs instead of 0.

I think weeks 11-12 are being overweighted because they are the most recent. His role is as good as anyone other than CMC, Josh Jacobs, and perhaps Kyren Williams, and I'm a little more enthused by the Chargers offense than the Raiders and possibly the Rams as well, although its possible Kyren was actually held back slightly in his 1st week back (his lowest snap share of the season) and maybe he's RB2 next week.

ETA: Also if something happened to either Detroit RB, the healthy one would easily jump to RB2.

If you average out weeks 1 and 8-10, his average finish was RB4. But that is counterbalanced by weeks 6-7 and 11-12, during which his average finish was RB28. You are zeroing in on his best weeks while completely discounting his poor weeks, which are half of his games.

I hope you are right, as I own Ekeler on one of my dynasty teams. I'm just not optimistic. The Chargers season is in a death spiral right now that is almost certainly going to result in firing the GM and head coach after the season (or maybe sooner). I expect that will have an impact on the field.

I'm referencing the positive results, but I'm zeroing in on the role. Its hard not to be an RB1 with his role, even if the RB isn't playing great. RBs getting 60%+ rush attempts, 60%+routes, 20% target shares and all the GL work are so rare. Its basically Ekeler, CMC, Jacobs and Kyren, and that's it. That's the biggest reason why I'm so in on Ekeler. In my eyes this has been re-enforced by his weeks 8-10 where he was still inefficient, but his role carried him to top-6 all 3 weeks.

Given the upcoming schedule, I don't see a bad matchup ahead for the rest of the season. I'll admit GB was a good matchup as well, but Ekeler had some bad luck (and play) but he probably should have had 2 TDs in that game but managed to have 0, I think he'll hit some positive regression there.

I'm not expecting his 2021 efficiency to come back but given the state of the RB position in fantasy, I don't think it has to for Ekeler to finish that strongly.

 

[Tau837]

RBs getting 60%+ rush attempts, 60%+routes, 20% target shares and all the GL work are so rare.

I agree. This made me curious, so I looked it up.

In the 8 games Ekeler has played this season:

• He has gotten 112 of 182 rushing attempts (61.5%). 25 of the non-Ekeler runs are Herbert scrambles, so Ekeler had 71.3% of the designed rushing attempts.
• He has gotten 40 of 266 targets (15%).
• The Chargers have scored 11 TDs on 31 plays (13 targets and 18 rushing attempts) at the opposing 5 yard line and closer. Ekeler got a touch on 15 of those plays (1 catch on 1 target and 14 rushing attempts) and has scored 4 TDs on those plays. So he has gotten about half of the opportunities and scored on less than 1/3 of them.

His targets are down, and I see no reason they will climb back up to what he got in the past under different OCs. But, as you say, the goal line opportunities are there, as are the rushing attempts, but the poor OL play is hurting him there.

 

[(HULK)]

Have you made adjustments for JT and Zach Moss?