Travdogg's positional rankings from week 11 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Jalen Hurts (2)
2. Josh Allen (1)
3. Patrick Mahomes (3)
Tier 2:
4. Justin Herbert (4)
5. Lamar Jackson (5)
6. Joe Burrow (7)
Tier 3:
7. Dak Prescott (12), since the bye, Dak is playing the best football of his career. I'm curious if last week's big Cooks game is a 1-off or not, as unlocking a deep threat could really bolster Dak's ceiling.
8. CJ Stroud (8)
9. Tua Tagovailoa (6)
10. Jared Goff (10)
Tier 4:
11. Sam Howell (14)
12. Justin Fields (9)
13. Brock Purdy (15)
14. Kyler Murray (NR), certainly looked healthy to me. This is sort of a heat check of sorts, if he looks good again next week, he could move up quickly based on his talent/history.
15. Trevor Lawrence (11), in a weird spot, where I think he's playing better than last year, but his team around him lets him down (this week it was the OL, though 49ers can do that to anyone, ask Dak) still the production hasn't been there, and while it could turnaround at any point, he's been disappointing.

Dropped off: Deshaun Watson (13), credit to him for leading a nice comeback, but he picked up another injury in the process.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Travis Etienne (2)
3. Austin Ekeler (3)
Tier 2:
4. D'Andre Swift (11), the current RB9 has had excellent consistency finishing no worse than RB24 in any week since he became part of the offense in week 2. He's had the worst TD luck in the NFC, and the Eagles also got more run heavy when Goedert went down last season. OL is getting healthier too. Playing a bit of a hunch here but expecting some great games out of Swift as the weather gets worse.
5. Jonathan Taylor (5)
6. Breece Hall (4)
7. Bijan Robinson (7)
Tier 3:
8. De'Von Achane (8)
9. David Montgomery (17)
10. Jahmyr Gibbs (21), I think the Lions have the best offense in the NFL now that they are fully healthy. There is more than enough room for both RBs to be low-end RB1s, and this is a team that wants to run 30+ times weekly. I think Monty gets a slight edge due to higher TD expectations, and the chance that he was eased in a bit his 1st week back. This is potentially this year's Zeke/Pollard, but with an even better offense.
11. Tony Pollard (6)
12. Javonte Williams (23), he's not been particularly efficient with them, but workloads like these are rare, and its clear he's Denver's offensive centerpiece and that Payton doesn't trust Wilson. 18-30-25 touch counts the last 3 games.
Tier 4:
13. Alvin Kamara (14)
14. Kenneth Walker (10)
15. Saquon Barkley (9)
16. Josh Jacobs (15)
17. Joe Mixon (12)
18. Isiah Pacheco (16)
19. Aaron Jones (13)
Tier 5:
20. Raheem Mostert (26)
21. Kyren Williams (27)
22. Brian Robinson (29)
23. Derrick Henry (20)
24. Rachaad White (18)
25. Jerome Ford (19)
26. James Conner (NR), hasn't been involved in the passing game this year, so that limits upside, but Kyler's healthy return elevated the whole offense. What was that weird "Tune push play?"
27. James Cook (25)
28. Rhamondre Stevenson (28)
29. Alexander Mattison (22)
30. Chuba Hubbard (24)

Dropped off: Khalil Herbert (30), not sure he'll get his job back from Foreman, who continues to look like a solid RB. Worried he gets the 2022 split upon return.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)
8. Justin Jefferson (15)
9. Cooper Kupp (8)
10. Davante Adams (9)
Tier 3:
11. Brandon Aiyuk (10)
12. Puka Nacua (11)
13. Adam Thielen (23), was a sell high a few weeks back, but I think he's a buy low now that everyone is piling on Young. The play caller switch has been the biggest issue for Thielen the last 3 weeks, but Reich said after Thursday's game, that he's re-evaluating that switch (which to me reads as I'm taking it back, before I lose my job) and that should mean the return of 12+ target Thielen.
14. Jaylen Waddle (12)
Tier 4:
15. DeVonta Smith (13)
16. DK Metcalf (14)
17. Chris Olave (17)
Tier 5:
18. Mike Evans (21)
19. Deebo Samuel (33), certainly looked fully healthy to me, and was back involved in the running game. Lots of mouths to feed in this offense, but they've hit 30 points in every game all the skill guys have been healthy in.
20. Michael Pittman (20)
21. Garrett Wilson (35), love the player, love the role, hate the QB. He's basically Thielen without the TDs, but with a little more deep ability. High floor, no ceiling. Tough to rank.
22. Hollywood Brown (18)
Tier 6:
23. Nico Collins (22)
24. DJ Moore (16)
25. Christian Kirk (29)
26. Diontae Johnson (28)
Tier 7:
27. Tank Dell (25)
28. Jakobi Meyers (38), haven't been impressed by O'Connell at all, personally I thought McDaniels not Jimmy G was the issue, but its a 2-man passing game and they won't play a defense this season as hard as the Jets again, also seeing a lot of point chasing coming up on the schedule after 2 weeks playing the NY teams.
29. Amari Cooper (27)
30. DeAndre Hopkins (26)
31. Tee Higgins (19), starting to get a bit of an injury prone label. Doesn't have the best history of coming back strong either. Hammy makes me very nervous, and gap between he and Chase has widened by the season.
32. Zay Flowers (32)
Tier 8:
33. Jordan Addison (24)
34. Tyler Lockett (39)
35. Terry McLaurin (34)
36. Calvin Ridley (31)
Tier 9:
37. George Pickens (30)
38. Chris Godwin (36)
39. Rashee Rice (37)
40. Drake London (40)

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. Mark Andrews (2)
3. TJ Hockenson (3)
Tier 2:
4. George Kittle (5)
5. Sam LaPorta (4)
6. Dalton Kincaid (7)
7. Evan Engram (6)
Tier 3:
8. Jake Ferguson (10)
9. Trey McBride (13), has looked outstanding of late, and ceiling could be higher depending on Kyler. Mild concern Ertz impending return cuts into targets (like Kincaid with Knox) but he should be able to easily hold him off, never can assume coaches will be smart though.
10. Kyle Pitts (11)
Tier 4:
11. Taysom Hill (9)
12. Cole Kmet (12)
13. Dalton Schultz (8), nothing to do with Schultz, I'm just having a hard time with how to rank the Texans in general. Tank has been hot, Nico sure looked like the #1 earlier in the year, and Noah Brown doesn't look like someone about to go away. I think there could be some disappearing weeks when everyone is healthy.
14. Logan Thomas (15)
15. David Njoku (NR), been coming on of late with 6-9 targets weekly regardless of QB. 12 point average the last 4 weeks.

Dropped off: Jonnu Smith (14), two 1 catch games sandwiched around 1 big game. I'm more inclined to believe the 1 catch games, and that Pitts takes on a bigger role coming out of the bye.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Man I feel like D'Angelo Barksdale in S1 of The Wire, and @travdogg is Stringer Bell

---

Where's Warren at?

Where's the boy String?

Where's Warren? That's all I want to know.

Where the **** is Warren?

Huh? Huh? String! Look at me.

LOOK AT ME! WHERE'S WARREN?

WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? HUH?!!

WHERE'S WARREN AT? WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? STRINGER!!

 

[eighsse2]

So I have QB1, RB2, RB4, WR2, WR3, RB7 (flex), and RB10/WR38 on the bench for insurance. (No TE necessary) I approve of your list. Also projected DST1. Sorry, which way to the Bragging, Venting, Crowing thread?

Here's to no injuries?

 

[djjosee]

So I have QB1, RB2, RB4, WR2, WR3, RB7 (flex), and RB10/WR38 on the bench for insurance. (No TE necessary) I approve of your list. Also projected DST1. Sorry, which way to the Bragging, Venting, Crowing thread?

Here's to no injuries?

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

 

[zoonation]

Alvin Kamara - currently the RB5 even with missing 3 games. RB3 in PPG. Workhorse usage. Safest floor outside of McCaffrey. RB14 in these rankings.

 

[FairWarning]

No Dobbs? Personally I could see him close to top 10.

 

[FarFromHome]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

 

[FarFromHome]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

And zero ahead of him in rushing yards. Two ahead of him I'm rushing tds. Let not pretend we drafted Lamar thinking he was gonna pass for 5000 yards. He has more passing yards then Lawrence and Geno. Within a pass of Burrow. Here's hoping to a strong finish.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

And zero ahead of him in rushing yards. Two ahead of him I'm rushing tds. Let not pretend we drafted Lamar thinking he was gonna pass for 5000 yards. He has more passing yards then Lawrence and Geno. Within a pass of Burrow. Here's hoping to a strong finish.

And less than Derek Carr. I didn't expect 5k yards but he's basically Josh Dobbs statistically and that's not what I expected. A strong finish would be sweet though.

 

[dschuler]

thanks for the rankings as always. Two thoughts:
1. I think Kyler has a high potential to be in the 5-7 range and is a good trade target if you need a QB. Don’t necessarily disagree with the ranking but he’s got more upside than most above him.
2. Chris Olave could drop a little more with Carr at QB but if Winston plays I think he’s a locked and loaded WR1. Something to monitor.

 

[gucci little piggy]

No Dobbs? Personally I could see him close to top 10.

Agreed. I definitely think he at least needs to be ahead of Trevor Lawrence at this point.

 

[-OZ-]

good stuff, the comments are appreciated too.

Lockett seems low, especially relative to Metcalf. Do you expect DK to become that much more of a target with the tough defenses these next 4 weeks?

 

[travdogg]

Man I feel like D'Angelo Barksdale in S1 of The Wire, and @travdogg is Stringer Bell

---

Where's Warren at?

Where's the boy String?

Where's Warren? That's all I want to know.

Where the **** is Warren?

Huh? Huh? String! Look at me.

LOOK AT ME! WHERE'S WARREN?

WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? HUH?!!

WHERE'S WARREN AT? WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? STRINGER!!

Hey, I get that reference.

Warren was literally the last omission. I've been near the front of the Warren bandwagon since the end of last season. I was comparing the situation to Gordon/Ekeler all summer, and waiting for the Steelers to see the light. And...despite Warren being named the starter, I'm still unconvinced they have. I think its a 50-50 RBBC in a bad offense. If Najee gets phased out, or down into the 30-40% range, Warren will fly up, but yeah, I'm not confident we didn't just see the biggest game Warren will have.

So I have QB1, RB2, RB4, WR2, WR3, RB7 (flex), and RB10/WR38 on the bench for insurance. (No TE necessary) I approve of your list. Also projected DST1. Sorry, which way to the Bragging, Venting, Crowing thread?

Here's to no injuries?

Congrats.

Fantasy football is very random sometimes. I have 1 team that is 2nd in points scored, and my worst starter is Pittman as my #3 WR, and that team is 4-6. I have another team that started Chubb/Adams in the draft, that is 6th in points, and has been dependent on the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Rashee Rice, and Demario Douglas in recent weeks, and that team is 7-3 and in 1st place.

 

[Gally]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

And zero ahead of him in rushing yards. Two ahead of him I'm rushing tds. Let not pretend we drafted Lamar thinking he was gonna pass for 5000 yards. He has more passing yards then Lawrence and Geno. Within a pass of Burrow. Here's hoping to a strong finish.

I think the issue is that over the last 3 games the Ravens have put up 101 pts and Lamar only has 2 total TD's in that span. This is somewhat fluky and should correct at some point. If Lamar had half the rushing TD's that Gus got over this time and added another TD pass or two then nobody would be complaining. Game script and rushing TD's have swung way the other way. It should come back to Lamar's favor over the course of the rest of the season.

 

[tricky92]

I have Brian Robinson on my team, and have been disappointed with him all season...

and then yesterday I decided to look at the actual points scored per position in my league (instead of dreamed up weekly rankings) and was utterly shocked to see him at #4 among all RBs in .5PPR.

Crazy.

 

[eighsse2]

Man I feel like D'Angelo Barksdale in S1 of The Wire, and @travdogg is Stringer Bell

---

Where's Warren at?

Where's the boy String?

Where's Warren? That's all I want to know.

Where the **** is Warren?

Huh? Huh? String! Look at me.

LOOK AT ME! WHERE'S WARREN?

WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? HUH?!!

WHERE'S WARREN AT? WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? STRINGER!!

Hey, I get that reference.

Warren was literally the last omission. I've been near the front of the Warren bandwagon since the end of last season. I was comparing the situation to Gordon/Ekeler all summer, and waiting for the Steelers to see the light. And...despite Warren being named the starter, I'm still unconvinced they have. I think its a 50-50 RBBC in a bad offense. If Najee gets phased out, or down into the 30-40% range, Warren will fly up, but yeah, I'm not confident we didn't just see the biggest game Warren will have.

So I have QB1, RB2, RB4, WR2, WR3, RB7 (flex), and RB10/WR38 on the bench for insurance. (No TE necessary) I approve of your list. Also projected DST1. Sorry, which way to the Bragging, Venting, Crowing thread?

Here's to no injuries?

Congrats.

Fantasy football is very random sometimes. I have 1 team that is 2nd in points scored, and my worst starter is Pittman as my #3 WR, and that team is 4-6. I have another team that started Chubb/Adams in the draft, that is 6th in points, and has been dependent on the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Rashee Rice, and Demario Douglas in recent weeks, and that team is 7-3 and in 1st place.

That'd be how it goes. The guy dead last in points in our 12-team league is leading his division at 4-6, so currently is the #3 seed.

 

[travdogg]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

And zero ahead of him in rushing yards. Two ahead of him I'm rushing tds. Let not pretend we drafted Lamar thinking he was gonna pass for 5000 yards. He has more passing yards then Lawrence and Geno. Within a pass of Burrow. Here's hoping to a strong finish.

I think the issue is that over the last 3 games the Ravens have put up 101 pts and Lamar only has 2 total TD's in that span. This is somewhat fluky and should correct at some point. If Lamar had half the rushing TD's that Gus got over this time and added another TD pass or two then nobody would be complaining. Game script and rushing TD's have swung way the other way. It should come back to Lamar's favor over the course of the rest of the season.

I was in the middle of responding to the Lamar post, and this popped up and said almost everything I was going to. Lamar's fantasy points are a little wild right now, but his play has still been mostly elite. He's still currently QB5 (though his bye is yet to come) he's just in a minor fantasy slump. Not worried at all.

No Dobbs? Personally I could see him close to top 10.

Much like Warren, Dobbs was the last omission. For posterity's sake, Douglas and Musgrave were the last omissions at their positions. I wanna see 1 more week from Dobbs, but he's close.

 

[travdogg]

Alvin Kamara - currently the RB5 even with missing 3 games. RB3 in PPG. Workhorse usage. Safest floor outside of McCaffrey. RB14 in these rankings.

RB18 in non-PPR. I'm splitting the difference, I think.

He's extremely inefficient, he doesn't score TDs, and that workhorse role has resulted in 18 carries over the last 2 weeks, in what has become a kinda bad offense.

thanks for the rankings as always. Two thoughts:
1. I think Kyler has a high potential to be in the 5-7 range and is a good trade target if you need a QB. Don’t necessarily disagree with the ranking but he’s got more upside than most above him.
2. Chris Olave could drop a little more with Carr at QB but if Winston plays I think he’s a locked and loaded WR1. Something to monitor.

Fully agree on Kyler. Always been a huge fan of his, and think his upside is absolutely there with someone like Burrow. Just want to see more of him before I move him up too high.

If Winston was Olave's QB all year, he'd probably be a poor man's Hill right now. He's been missed on more open deep balls than anyone in the NFL. Not sure if the Saints would be better though as Winston is the most INT happy QB in football. So, if Carr can go, I expect he will. The bye week is at a bad time for Olave.

 

[travdogg]

good stuff, the comments are appreciated too.

Lockett seems low, especially relative to Metcalf. Do you expect DK to become that much more of a target with the tough defenses these next 4 weeks?

Metcalf has been unlucky with TDs of late, and had some near misses on big plays. He's also been struggling with a hip injury that it seems like he's mostly over with now.

I expect Metcalf to be the clear #1 going forward, but Lockett will have weeks where he's more productive like he always does. That's what Seattle wants too I think, as evidenced by DK having a 14 target and a 12 target game in the last 3 weeks. Metcalf doesn't seem to have the low floor Lockett does, he's hit 50 yards or a TD in every game this season. He's due for a blowup.

I wouldn't fault someone for having Lockett higher than he is. I do think he's coming off a pop week against maybe the NFL's worst pass defense. So I'm tempering expectations as I often do.

I have Brian Robinson on my team, and have been disappointed with him all season...

and then yesterday I decided to look at the actual points scored per position in my league (instead of dreamed up weekly rankings) and was utterly shocked to see him at #4 among all RBs in .5PPR.

Crazy.

He's been a tough guy to rank, because he doesn't see the field for long stretches of games, isn't particularly used in the passing game (Sunday was an aberration) and is TD dependent on a pass 1st team. He checks all the boxes of somebody who I personally wouldn't be targeting. Yet, here he is being the most productive B. Robinson at RB.

He's been impressive for sure, but I'm with you, where it all feels completely unreliable, and kinda wrong. Props to those who have been starting him I guess (I have 2 shares, and have been trying to sell high for much of the season) but yeah, fully expecting the rug to be pulled out at any (every?) moment.

 

[Deamon]

You're likely gonna get lit up for still having Pollard as an RB1 ROS lol.

 

[Tau837]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)

Curious, are you assuming Allen misses games going forwad? In standard PPR:

• Allen is #2 among WRs in PPG this season
• In the last 4 games only, Allen is #5 among WRs in PPG
• In the last 2 games only, Allen is #3 among WRs in PPG

We have talked in these threads before about Herbert uncharacteristically missing Allen for some big plays in recent games, but Herbert should be over his fractured finger soon, which seems to have affected his accuracy. (To listen to Romo in two Chargers games he has announced since it was fractured, it would have been a big impact.)

The only report I've seen on Allen's shoulder injury is that he is day to day. Are you assuming he gets impacted by this injury?

I know all of the WRs in the top 7 are great, but Diggs over Allen for ROS seems very unlikely to me.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

came in to post about pollard but what's the point. fbgs still has him pretty high also compared to what he's doing, as is CBS weekly rankings. he's the worst because he's in such a great situation on a scoring team and yet... ugh.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)

Curious, are you assuming Allen misses games going forwad? In standard PPR:

• Allen is #2 among WRs in PPG this season
• In the last 4 games only, Allen is #5 among WRs in PPG
• In the last 2 games only, Allen is #3 among WRs in PPG

We have talked in these threads before about Herbert uncharacteristically missing Allen for some big plays in recent games, but Herbert should be over his fractured finger soon, which seems to have affected his accuracy. (To listen to Romo in two Chargers games he has announced since it was fractured, it would have been a big impact.)

The only report I've seen on Allen's shoulder injury is that he is day to day. Are you assuming he gets impacted by this injury?

I know all of the WRs in the top 7 are great, but Diggs over Allen for ROS seems very unlikely to me.

Not expecting him to miss any time from the shoulder injury, it is possible he is affected by it, but I'm not really factoring it in much.

Why does Diggs seem unlikely? He was outscoring Allen (both overall and PPG) going into last week. I think its very possible one of the Bills new OCs adjustments, is no more sub-10 target games for Diggs.

I think Allen's monster week 10 is skewing his PPG stats over the last 2 and 5 games. Not sure the Chargers find themselves in too many more shootouts going forward given the schedule.

 

[-jb-]

Why do you (and many others) hate Mike Evans?

 

[FarFromHome]

Why do you (and many others) hate Mike Evans?

I hate him because I never roster him and he always kills me when I play him. I was against him last year week 17 for the title. That was the 200 yard 3 td game. Smh. Have nothing but anxiety when I play against him.

 

[ZADO]

Love your work dogg

I think Jacobs should be a tier higher tho

 

[travdogg]

Why do you (and many others) hate Mike Evans?

I've always liked Evans. I don't like, trust, or believe in Mayfield enough to rank Evans above a WR2. Evans will pop some nice games, but I expect consistency to be elusive as it always is.

Love your work dogg

I think Jacobs should be a tier higher tho

I'm pretty hesitant to move Jacobs up right now for a couple reasons.

1. I think he's not passing the eye test, he's looked sluggish and has been inefficient. This is the worst I've ever seen him look.

2. I don't trust his workload/offense. I think there is a misconception that the offense has turned around since McDaniels was fired, and Jimmy G was benched (wrongfully in my opinion) and I don't think that's true. I think they played 2 teams with no offenses. I'm very worried about this offense when they play a team that can score points, like they are this week, and pretty much every week the rest of the season.

 

[Tau837]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)

Curious, are you assuming Allen misses games going forwad? In standard PPR:

• Allen is #2 among WRs in PPG this season
• In the last 4 games only, Allen is #5 among WRs in PPG
• In the last 2 games only, Allen is #3 among WRs in PPG

We have talked in these threads before about Herbert uncharacteristically missing Allen for some big plays in recent games, but Herbert should be over his fractured finger soon, which seems to have affected his accuracy. (To listen to Romo in two Chargers games he has announced since it was fractured, it would have been a big impact.)

The only report I've seen on Allen's shoulder injury is that he is day to day. Are you assuming he gets impacted by this injury?

I know all of the WRs in the top 7 are great, but Diggs over Allen for ROS seems very unlikely to me.

Not expecting him to miss any time from the shoulder injury, it is possible he is affected by it, but I'm not really factoring it in much.

Why does Diggs seem unlikely? He was outscoring Allen (both overall and PPG) going into last week. I think its very possible one of the Bills new OCs adjustments, is no more sub-10 target games for Diggs.

I think Allen's monster week 10 is skewing his PPG stats over the last 2 and 5 games. Not sure the Chargers find themselves in too many more shootouts going forward given the schedule.

To clarify, are your ROS rankings based on projected total fantasy points or fantasy ppg? Or something else? Diggs hasn't had his bye yet.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)

Curious, are you assuming Allen misses games going forwad? In standard PPR:

• Allen is #2 among WRs in PPG this season
• In the last 4 games only, Allen is #5 among WRs in PPG
• In the last 2 games only, Allen is #3 among WRs in PPG

We have talked in these threads before about Herbert uncharacteristically missing Allen for some big plays in recent games, but Herbert should be over his fractured finger soon, which seems to have affected his accuracy. (To listen to Romo in two Chargers games he has announced since it was fractured, it would have been a big impact.)

The only report I've seen on Allen's shoulder injury is that he is day to day. Are you assuming he gets impacted by this injury?

I know all of the WRs in the top 7 are great, but Diggs over Allen for ROS seems very unlikely to me.

Not expecting him to miss any time from the shoulder injury, it is possible he is affected by it, but I'm not really factoring it in much.

Why does Diggs seem unlikely? He was outscoring Allen (both overall and PPG) going into last week. I think its very possible one of the Bills new OCs adjustments, is no more sub-10 target games for Diggs.

I think Allen's monster week 10 is skewing his PPG stats over the last 2 and 5 games. Not sure the Chargers find themselves in too many more shootouts going forward given the schedule.

To clarify, are your ROS rankings based on projected total fantasy points or fantasy ppg? Or something else? Diggs hasn't had his bye yet.

Care more about PPG than total points I guess, as long as its not injury related. Allen will certainly be better in week 13, and probably this week too.

 

[Tau837]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. AJ Brown (2)
3. CeeDee Lamb (7)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Stefon Diggs (3)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
7. Keenan Allen (6)

Curious, are you assuming Allen misses games going forwad? In standard PPR:

• Allen is #2 among WRs in PPG this season
• In the last 4 games only, Allen is #5 among WRs in PPG
• In the last 2 games only, Allen is #3 among WRs in PPG

We have talked in these threads before about Herbert uncharacteristically missing Allen for some big plays in recent games, but Herbert should be over his fractured finger soon, which seems to have affected his accuracy. (To listen to Romo in two Chargers games he has announced since it was fractured, it would have been a big impact.)

The only report I've seen on Allen's shoulder injury is that he is day to day. Are you assuming he gets impacted by this injury?

I know all of the WRs in the top 7 are great, but Diggs over Allen for ROS seems very unlikely to me.

Not expecting him to miss any time from the shoulder injury, it is possible he is affected by it, but I'm not really factoring it in much.

Why does Diggs seem unlikely? He was outscoring Allen (both overall and PPG) going into last week. I think its very possible one of the Bills new OCs adjustments, is no more sub-10 target games for Diggs.

I think Allen's monster week 10 is skewing his PPG stats over the last 2 and 5 games. Not sure the Chargers find themselves in too many more shootouts going forward given the schedule.

To clarify, are your ROS rankings based on projected total fantasy points or fantasy ppg? Or something else? Diggs hasn't had his bye yet.

Care more about PPG than total points I guess, as long as its not injury related. Allen will certainly be better in week 13, and probably this week too.

I took a look at their schedules. Given the bye and assuming health for both (and their QBs), I think Allen will outscore Diggs in total points the rest of the way, but Diggs probably has a more favorable WR schedule. He plays 3 tough defenses but 4 easy ones. So perhaps Diggs will outscore Allen in ppg. Should be close either way.

I guess I have to concede that Allen at 7 is fine and reasonable.

 

[pinkstapler]

Still too low on Pittman at WR20 IMO. Fantasy scoring as a WR1, 3rd in targets, 8th in receptions, 12th in yardage. Tends to be Minshew's first look on almost every pass play. And he's been getting targeted more in the red zone with him. If the refs didn't screw him out of one this past Sunday, would have 3 in the past 6 weeks Minshew has started. Super safe floor as well.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Trav love the work, look forward to it each week but what's it going to take for you to downgrade Jackson from QB5? Are you expecting a big upturn or something? He's thrown 1 td in 3 games and has 10 on the season and is still handily outscored by Cousins who's been on IR for 2 weeks.

It's math. The math is he is 4th in my leagues scoring. Leads NFL QBs in rushing yards. Has Bengals and Chargers next two. Im gonna guess in two games he will be 3rd in my league scoring.

Ok thanks. I'll be interested to revisit this in a couple of weeks. I could see him coming up with a big game against the Chargers. But even with quality rushing stats, he's still got 18 QBs ahead of him for passing tds.

And zero ahead of him in rushing yards. Two ahead of him I'm rushing tds. Let not pretend we drafted Lamar thinking he was gonna pass for 5000 yards. He has more passing yards then Lawrence and Geno. Within a pass of Burrow. Here's hoping to a strong finish.

I think the issue is that over the last 3 games the Ravens have put up 101 pts and Lamar only has 2 total TD's in that span. This is somewhat fluky and should correct at some point. If Lamar had half the rushing TD's that Gus got over this time and added another TD pass or two then nobody would be complaining. Game script and rushing TD's have swung way the other way. It should come back to Lamar's favor over the course of the rest of the season.

Thank you, I really do appreciate the calm insight. I think the highlighted part of your post is what i'm trying to get at and not wording things well. I just think that, this season, Lamar Jackson is not a quality FF asset. Hey may well be close to elite in an NFL sense and the Ravens may well be delighted with everything, but in fantasy, I think he's a season killer.

The crux of it is, when you have to rely on "should correct at some point" and meanwhile your fantasy season meanders on and you're being handily outscored weekly by QBs on your opponents team like Geno Smith 27-14, Dak Prescott 33-11 and Justin Herbert 29-13 (these are the QBs against Lamar past 3 weeks in my league), therein lies the issue I have with him. Opponent QBs are easily doubling or tripling his score weekly and it's a heck of a hole to get out of. You'd have to be extremely lucky to have a good record starting this dude every week because who's benching him? His potential keeps you manacled to him. He's been a season killer.

That his stats will likely correct at some point is all well and good and likely, but meanwhile the upturn is useless to me because my season is already basically over. But again, thank you for the insight, not meaning to rant here and apologies if I derailed the overall discussion.

 

[dickey moe]

I have Brian Robinson on my team, and have been disappointed with him all season...

and then yesterday I decided to look at the actual points scored per position in my league (instead of dreamed up weekly rankings) and was utterly shocked to see him at #4 among all RBs in .5PPR.

Crazy.

He's the #5 RB in one of my leagues. Had had a few meh games but also a few huge games. He has a high ceiling and should be a trade target if you can swing it.

 

[dickey moe]

Keenan Allen is a WR1.

 

[Gally]

The crux of it is, when you have to rely on "should correct at some point" and meanwhile your fantasy season meanders on and you're being handily outscored weekly by QBs on your opponents team like Geno Smith 27-14, Dak Prescott 33-11 and Justin Herbert 29-13 (these are the QBs against Lamar past 3 weeks in my league), therein lies the issue I have with him. Opponent QBs are easily doubling or tripling his score weekly and it's a heck of a hole to get out of. You'd have to be extremely lucky to have a good record starting this dude every week because who's benching him? His potential keeps you manacled to him. He's been a season killer.

You are cherry picking his three worst weeks (which so happen to be the last three weeks. The week before that he put up 3 passing TD's and a rushing TD and had a monster week). The three QB's you pointed out are not having great outputs either. They just had good games the week you played against them. So again, a bit of a cherry pick.

Fact is Lamar is a QB1 and depending on scoring system he is somewhere in the top 10 of QB's. That is not "killing" your season. The expectation vs reality might be killing your mind but he hasn't been bad overall. Granted his last three weeks from a fantasy perspective hurt but again, his team put up 101 pts. The chances of him only having two passing TD's with that kind of output is a significant outlier. It sucks for sure and likely hurt you but sometimes that happens.

I would say Dak, Geno, and Herbert have hurt their teams just as much as Lamar has but when you cherry pick a week or two it's easy to overlook that. I mean until the last three weeks Dak was terrible for fantasy. Now he looks all world. That is just as likely to happen to Lamar over the next three weeks.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

The crux of it is, when you have to rely on "should correct at some point" and meanwhile your fantasy season meanders on and you're being handily outscored weekly by QBs on your opponents team like Geno Smith 27-14, Dak Prescott 33-11 and Justin Herbert 29-13 (these are the QBs against Lamar past 3 weeks in my league), therein lies the issue I have with him. Opponent QBs are easily doubling or tripling his score weekly and it's a heck of a hole to get out of. You'd have to be extremely lucky to have a good record starting this dude every week because who's benching him? His potential keeps you manacled to him. He's been a season killer.

You are cherry picking his three worst weeks (which so happen to be the last three weeks. The week before that he put up 3 passing TD's and a rushing TD and had a monster week). The three QB's you pointed out are not having great outputs either. They just had good games the week you played against them. So again, a bit of a cherry pick.

Fact is Lamar is a QB1 and depending on scoring system he is somewhere in the top 10 of QB's. That is not "killing" your season. The expectation vs reality might be killing your mind but he hasn't been bad overall. Granted his last three weeks from a fantasy perspective hurt but again, his team put up 101 pts. The chances of him only having two passing TD's with that kind of output is a significant outlier. It sucks for sure and likely hurt you but sometimes that happens.

I would say Dak, Geno, and Herbert have hurt their teams just as much as Lamar has but when you cherry pick a week or two it's easy to overlook that. I mean until the last three weeks Dak was terrible for fantasy. Now he looks all world. That is just as likely to happen to Lamar over the next three weeks.

Well yes but leaving his recent duds aside, I could just as easily have cherry picked week 1 (5 freakin points against Houston), week 5 (9 points) or week 6 (16 points) as well. To my mind, he has had 2 good weeks and 2 excellent weeks out of 10. The other 6 weeks have been varying degrees of rotten. 6 weeks where he was outscored massively by the opponent QB. That's a big hole to dig out of most weeks. Contrast with for example, Herbert who has 2 poor weeks and the rest have been good to excellent (20-30+)

I'd be interested to get the input of any LJ owners out there who are actually pleased with him this season. I doubt there are many but perception is going to play a part. If you have him but you're somehow 7 and 3 or something, you're not likely complaining too much I guess.

I'm not even blaming him directly, i'm sure a lot of it is game-flow, good defense, good red zone running by the RBs, poor WR play etc. That doesn't help and isn't something you can plan for. I would easily swap him for several QBs I passed on to take him, Dak and Herbert for sure. Just my opinion after having him on my team for the first time and being excited to see him play.

 

[travdogg]

Still too low on Pittman at WR20 IMO. Fantasy scoring as a WR1, 3rd in targets, 8th in receptions, 12th in yardage. Tends to be Minshew's first look on almost every pass play. And he's been getting targeted more in the red zone with him. If the refs didn't screw him out of one this past Sunday, would have 3 in the past 6 weeks Minshew has started. Super safe floor as well.

Fully agree with Pittman's super safe floor. He's my WR3 in one league, and Indy is a fantasy friendly offense in that they seem to run entirely through Taylor/Pittman and Downs when healthy at this point.

Having said that, he has almost no ceiling so its really tough to view him as a WR1. You aren't 150 yard or 2 TD games with Pittman ever.

 

[pinkstapler]

Still too low on Pittman at WR20 IMO. Fantasy scoring as a WR1, 3rd in targets, 8th in receptions, 12th in yardage. Tends to be Minshew's first look on almost every pass play. And he's been getting targeted more in the red zone with him. If the refs didn't screw him out of one this past Sunday, would have 3 in the past 6 weeks Minshew has started. Super safe floor as well.

Fully agree with Pittman's super safe floor. He's my WR3 in one league, and Indy is a fantasy friendly offense in that they seem to run entirely through Taylor/Pittman and Downs when healthy at this point.

Having said that, he has almost no ceiling so its really tough to view him as a WR1. You aren't 150 yard or 2 TD games with Pittman ever.

Yeah I wouldn't have him top 12 either despite him scoring there (in full PPR at least), but probably right outside ~WR15.

 

[Gally]

I'd be interested to get the input of any LJ owners out there who are actually pleased with him this season. I doubt there are many but perception is going to play a part. If you have him but you're somehow 7 and 3 or something, you're not likely complaining too much I guess.

I am an LJ owner and I am fine with him this year. Do I wish he did better the last three weeks, of course. I could probably mirror QB matchups vs Lamar where he didn't put his team in a hole vs the other QB. Schedule luck is a ***** sometimes. It's the nature of the game.

You are looking at this in hindsight and because you haven't had the schedule luck (or have other underperforming players) that have caused you to have a subpar season. It happens every year in FF. It could be worse. You could be on the Lawrence train. He has ruined many more teams than Lamar. Or Pollard or name the player.

You draft Lamar because he can win you games by himself and generally has a high floor due to his running. He has still done that as evidenced by him being a top 10 QB in most scoring formats. I fully expect Lamar to win you (and me) a few games moving forward.

So to answer your question, yes I have been disappointed in his last three weeks. But I am not disappointed by his overall season so far. It's a little under expectations but give me a top 10 QB with a chance to blow up every week.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I'd be interested to get the input of any LJ owners out there who are actually pleased with him this season. I doubt there are many but perception is going to play a part. If you have him but you're somehow 7 and 3 or something, you're not likely complaining too much I guess.

I am an LJ owner and I am fine with him this year. Do I wish he did better the last three weeks, of course. I could probably mirror QB matchups vs Lamar where he didn't put his team in a hole vs the other QB. Schedule luck is a ***** sometimes. It's the nature of the game.

You are looking at this in hindsight and because you haven't had the schedule luck (or have other underperforming players) that have caused you to have a subpar season. It happens every year in FF. It could be worse. You could be on the Lawrence train. He has ruined many more teams than Lamar. Or Pollard or name the player.

You draft Lamar because he can win you games by himself and generally has a high floor due to his running. He has still done that as evidenced by him being a top 10 QB in most scoring formats. I fully expect Lamar to win you (and me) a few games moving forward.

So to answer your question, yes I have been disappointed in his last three weeks. But I am not disappointed by his overall season so far. It's a little under expectations but give me a top 10 QB with a chance to blow up every week.

All fair and well made points and it's a good discussion. Appreciate your input

 

[BobbyLayne]

Man I feel like D'Angelo Barksdale in S1 of The Wire, and @travdogg is Stringer Bell

---

Where's Warren at?

Where's the boy String?

Where's Warren? That's all I want to know.

Where the **** is Warren?

Huh? Huh? String! Look at me.

LOOK AT ME! WHERE'S WARREN?

WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? HUH?!!

WHERE'S WARREN AT? WHERE THE **** IS WARREN? STRINGER!!

I got one question @travdogg