Ilov80s
Footballguy
I tried to find something but couldn’t. It doesn’t seem like he had any kind of injury or personal issue. Red shirted year 1, had 9 catches in 11 games as a sophomore.
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WR Hakeem Butler, PIT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Transcendent talent gets thrown around too liberally. One year of production and a wide range of scouting evaluations doesn't sound like transcendent talent to me. You bring up good points and certainly caution signs. One year of production at his age and potential talent level is concerning.
Gandalf
Footballguy
A lot of people like this guy but he seems too boom/bust to take with an early first. Actually, I think it all depends on landing spot for the 1.01
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Personally I think DK should be the 1.1.He may not be my 1.1 but he should go 1.1 more than the others
I don't have a definitive answer, and don't know where to look to confirm, but I do know that Iowa State's QB situation was not good until, maybe, 3-4 games into the 2017 season, and the emergence of Kyle Kempt. It improved in the 2018 season, with the emergence of Brock Purdy (true freshman). In 2016 ISU was rotating between three QBs. In 2017 the best of those quarterbacks moved to middle line backer, if that helps put some perspective on the situation.
Also, Hakeem was behind Alan Lazard until Lazard graduated after the 2017 season.
Again, I am not sure if this helps, and I have no idea how to scout players. This is just a few thoughts from an ISU alumn.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I appreciate the perspecive.
I posted some comments from the coach and Butler following the 2017 season where Butler was given feedback on his possible NFL value and what he needed to work on was consistency.
They are not specific about this but I assume they are talking about his catch technique and route running.
Lazar may not be a great NFL player but he must have been more reliable and consistent than Butler was at that time.
Do you know if the offense had clear rules for the WR? Was he playing the same position as Lazard?
I posted some comments from the coach and Butler following the 2017 season where Butler was given feedback on his possible NFL value and what he needed to work on was consistency.
They are not specific about this but I assume they are talking about his catch technique and route running.
Lazar may not be a great NFL player but he must have been more reliable and consistent than Butler was at that time.
Do you know if the offense had clear rules for the WR? Was he playing the same position as Lazard?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Something I learned about charting and creating grades for players last year, is that it really depends a lot on what you watch.
I think it is hard to give every player a fair shake as some just have more plays to chart than others. I ran into a problem similar to sample size in that some players just not getting the ball as much as others in cut ups of games.
Even though I was looking for 13 different traits for each play on each player, the number of plays was higher than others.
The only way to try to balance this out is to give a grade per play, but even then I am somewhat uncertain about the charted results.
To give an example, for Nick Chubb last year I only charted his post injury games. He was splitting with Sony Michel and neither of them were getting the ball that much on a per game basis.
So my grades for both a lot lower than RB who didn't split and got more plays per game.
With Chubb it actually took me 11 games before I found one where he graded well compared to others. It was a game where he actually got the ball a lot.
Point being that the method of grading should find a way to make this fair and objective as possible for all players.
I haven't figured out how to do that well enough to be satisfied with the results.
It seems to me that types of charting and grading are changing over time. Even Lance Zeirlien who's grades I tracked over several years changed their methodology a bit every few years.
The grades do not all match up. Especially when you change your method.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Looks like that is the case. Good find. Also found that his mom died when he was young and he moved to Texas with his cousins (the Barnes brothers from UK hoops game). Also he almost never even made it to college due to poor grades in high school. I’m not sure if that changes my feelings on him. It helps me understand why he was so behind but also it’s not that uncommon for players to switch positions or even sports entering college and still make quicker impacts than he did when they are such exceptional athletes. But maybe that’s just my bias here.
Lazard on Hakeem taking the reigns. - Lazard was the outside reciever, Hakeem the inside.
ISU QB/WR stats 2017 - You can see that this was not a "prolific" offense. only 3500 yards across the three Quarterbacks.
Years leading up to Hakeem at ISU - Late bloomer, uncoordinated, difficult childhood, coach that recruited him was fired.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
There seems to be a consensus developing amongst a lot of names I respect that Butler is a top or the top prospect. I initially had him as my top WR before taking into account workouts and production on just efficiency levels in his last year and exciting highlights. I have grown a modest bit concerned at the breakout age and while it’s not an end all, be all I have to say that Harry and AJ Brown meet all the marks you look for in an NFL WR. I think Butler is a tier 2 guy with Metcalf, Isabella, Parris Campbell and JJAW and Stanley Morgan for me.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The fact the offense wasn't prolific is irrelevant. Butler as a junior had 19.6% of the team's receiving yards and 26% of the team's passing TDs. Those aren't great numbers. Compare it to AJ Brown as a 21-year-old junior in the SEC playing on a team with potentially 3 other NFL pass catchers: Brown had 31.7% of the receiving yards and 28.5% the receiving TDs.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Something tells me it's going to be absolutely critical to nail the evaluation of this guy if you have a top 5 pick. Very wide range of outcomes.
Eagerly waiting to see when and where he goes.
Eagerly waiting to see when and where he goes.
As I stated earlier, I know nothing about scouting, just trying to helpful. I did want to note that the stats I linked were from 2017, Butler's Sophomore year. In 2018, his Junior year and after Lazard left, Butler was closer to 50% of both total yards and receiving TDs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Oh for sure and I am not a scout either. Butler smashed his senior year but again that was his age 22 senior year. Most of the best WR prospects spend their age 22 season in the NFL because they smashed as 21-year-old juniors. It doesn't mean he won't be good. Michael Thomas was a 4 year college player for example and has worked out just fine.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If it was 19.6% of the passing yards it is just barely missing the 20% mark to be considered "breaking out" by .4%Ilov80s said:
Seems like a pretty small margin to be discounting him for.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure and I’m not saying I wouldn’t draft him or he’s a certain bust. I just see Waldman and Evan Silva over the moon for him and don’t get it. I think this is a really great WR group and there are safer bets than Butler.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I can understand that. There is more risk with Butler and Metcalf than I think there is with Brown and Harry.
I think there is some higher upside as well.
It comes down to how risk adverse one is.
To me all 4 players are tier one prospects.
My pal Bojang is talking about dropping Butler a whole tier over this. I think that is over reacting.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is fair. My tier 1 would be Harry and Brown because I think they have the highest floor in the draft and just as high of a ceiling as any WR in the class. My next group in some order would include JJAW, DK, Butler and Isabella (which I know is probably nuts and once the draft happens I will probably have to lower him based on draft capital). My 3rd tier has Harmon, Deebo, Parris, Hollywood.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
If he was such an amazing wr prospect how come he couldnt outplay UDFA LazardIlov80s said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think Butler had 43% dominator score in 2018, pretty amazing. Consider breakout age only requires 20%, which he barely missed in 2017. Creating a binary out of a numeric is one issue i have with the BO age metric. Butler could have had 25% and 37% for the same yards over 2 seasons and we wouldn't be talking about this.Ilov80s said:
Combined with his late start in football I'm inclined to disregard his late blooming. I'd hate to pass on a player with all his ability, a potential longterm WR1, over a concern with a plausible explanation.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
43% is really exceptional in a major conference. The only slight knock on it for me is that he did that as a 22 year old senior (I feel like I am just going through the same argument over and over so I will look dumb when Butler blows up in the NFL). Harry had the same dominator but as a 20 year old junior. To me that isn't a fair comparison which is why age is so important when evaluating college. Most top level NFL WR prospects spend that 22 year old season in the NFL not in college so we don't know what JuJu or DK Metcalf or Hopkins or Beckham would have done if they played a 4th year in college. To make a fair comparison, we need to compare Butler's junior year to those aforementioned players sophomore years.
Also the idea of just adding percentages up over years isn't the same IMO. If a player was at 18% for 4 years it comes out to 72% total but I don't think that is the same as someone who had say 0% as a freshman, 33% as a sophomore and 39% as a junior. The former was a 4 year role player, the latter was a 2 year star.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
There might be several wrs who "barely missed" the breakout age threshold.
the red flag for me is he is such a great wr but he couldnt out muscle lazard for more volume in 2017
the red flag for me is he is such a great wr but he couldnt out muscle lazard for more volume in 2017
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
So younger guys never get more action than the seniors regardless of talent... interesting...
Several true sophomores were leading their teams that same year
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No, I get that. It's just Butler is such a great WR we can make excuses for his late breakout age and talk about how Waldman has given him his best rating ever... yet the guy wasnt good enough to beat out a senior who was nothing special.
it's interesting... a lot of the same people who might be down on Jacobs for some of these similar reasons are high on Butler.
I get it, a lot of people like him and see what they want to see, make excuses where they need to be made, change the thresholds to fit the narrative... that's fine I guess
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It wasn't just Lazard that beat out Butler in 2017. Trever Ryan also got more receptions. Marchie Murdock tied Butler. Those guys were all seniors and neither of them had the ypr or TDs that Butler did. Butler performed well with the targets he it's hard to explain to why he didn't get more other than to say the Iowa State coaches were morons who only wanted seniors on the field. Also, Butler did not come on down the stretch to improve and earn a bigger role. His first 7 games he averaged 3.2/54/0.4 and his final 6 games he averaged 3/43/0.7
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skinfanjon
Footballguy
You really have a way of taking someone words and twisting them into whatever you want them to be in order to validate your preconceived notions.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
To answer your questions, Jacobs is a poor athlete and has no good seasons. Butler has 1 good season and is an incredible athlete. But obviously you know that. That’s probably for the Jacobs thread though. And frankly there’s many more people drinking that koolaid than not. And I haven’t seen nearly as much love for Butler as Jacobs.
I’m not completely sold on Butler. I certainly can’t see how he’s the best wr in 5 plus years according to Waldman. I’d take him long before Jacobs though.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Actually, some folks are just trying to analyze a singular situation and not starting from any particular firm belief.
Here's a guy with one year of incredible film. Why does he only have year? What could be part of the story? Let's unwind. Once it's unwound, it's up to the individual to determine what to do with the info.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
You excused his play because he was a RS sophomore and Lazard was a senior. but okay
I find this comment very the pot calling the kettle black
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
great, let's discuss that. I'm all about it.
"he was a rs sophomore and Lazard was a senior" is a terrible place to start that conversation
eta: butler checks all the boxes but this one, which is why I ask the question. if there is a good answer I'm all about him
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Perhaps but at least Butler did perform well when he was targeted. I can't explain why he was not targeted more. He's clearly superior to all those other players.
You’re doing it again. Andy did not do this. He pointed out one possibility as to the low lever of production as a sophomore.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Absolutely. To me, that's a sign of something else going on that maybe is a yellow or red flag. but others seem so willing to just brush it under the rug. I may be in a position to grab him so I am looking at him pretty closely
Interseptopus
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
No one is brushing anything under the rug. Stop.
It's one possible theory. It doesn't have to happen on every single team in FBS for it to be a possibility in Iowa State.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Clearly not one you'll find acceptable.
If I play your game then I'd say "So it never happens where a talented underclassman had to wait his turn behind a guy more senior... Interesting."
I didn't say it was THE reason, I said it could be A reason. But it's probably difficult to see that from way up there where you currently are.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Because there does exist the possibility, however superior your scouting assessment having watched what I assume to be zero Iowa State games that year, that a coaching staff was prioritizing a senior wideout that was one of he leaders on his team over a sophomore. One thing, Andy said. And it is just one thing. Doesn’t mean that’s what happened, but it’s worth pointing out despite how outraged you are about it.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm asking for clarity
I'm damned if I assume you're excusing his play because hes young
I'm damned if I ask why his age would be a factor
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No, you’re damned because you’re fairly consistently the most condescending poster on the board.
