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BuckeyeChaos

This will be blasphemy for some

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So first off I respect the amount of work Waldman puts in and his knowledge around the evaluation process. However over the years I have seen pretty much the same hit or miss with his rankings than to any other. I know he’s had hits like like being down on McFadden and pointing out undrafted guys line Peyton Barber and the Crow. However he’s missed bad on some guys he banged the table for guys like Ameer Abdullah and Cody Latimore(the list is much longer) and also he was down on guys like Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. I can let pass missing on guys like Treadwell since everyone was missing on him. Worse than the misses is the absolute disregard of the miss. If there was follow up commentary and process adjustment id be in. Instead it’s a total dismissal and move on

Its Possible that I'm missing something and need to use the rankings differently so please let me know if I"m alone in this assesment.

 

Hey Matt at least we can both be happy the Browns are back on the map. ( you were right about Chubb although anyone who saw him pre injury was also way in)

Edited by BuckeyeChaos
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Please list any draftniks who come back and show/comment on their misses. Some guys fit better
in the NFL then they did in college. The whole thing is a guess.

M Waldmen shows his work. I don't think any other scouting service does.
 

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I would not (personally) pay for any (one persons) evaluation of any college player. I paid for Matt’s for a couple of years and just didn’t like the return on my investment some things you just learn to do on your own. Most rankings I’ve found over the years to be full of hits and plenty of misses. Most NFL scouts miss and they are paid to evaluate talent. Matt does put a lot of work, time and effort into his craft and that can’t be taken away from him. There’s just some things you have to learn to do yourself.

Tex

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As for Treadwell, he was all hype. He never did anything in college yet people still drafted him high. He was an obvious miss in my book, someone who’s high school hype got him drafted high. SMH it happens every year, I let people draft these type of players. Find the player that actually performs in college and he still might not make it in the NFL draft a player who did squat in college.....we’ll that’s on you.

Tex

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7 hours ago, nightmare said:

Please list any draftniks who come back and show/comment on their misses. Some guys fit better
in the NFL then they did in college. The whole thing is a guess.

M Waldmen shows his work. I don't think any other scouting service does.
 

Agreed that he shows the work. However if I'm listening to podcasts by him and others on this site touting his RSP and his correct rankings it begins to feel self serving if the misses (and there are big ones) are never addressed. I would think that if for no other reason, he would want to address them to figure out what he missed or what piece of the process needs a tweak.

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A Kamara was a 3rd round pick so NFL teams missed too. The Arizona Cardinals were going
to draft A Abdullah in the 2nd round. They were on the phone with him while Detroit was on the
clock. The Lions took Abdullah and the Cards"settled" for D Johnson in the 3rd. NFL teams
miss as much as they hit.

Amazon prime had a series called a season on the brink with the Arizona Cardinals. You can 
see it happened there. 

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I don’t have an issue with Waldman per se.  He does a ton of research and puts out a very thorough product.  I think he is not aware of how much his personal opinion factors into his evaluation at times, which can have a real negative impact.  He seems to hit and miss about as regularly as most of his competition.  

It’s the weight that some here give his opinion, as though if he states something it becomes fact even though it certainly is not, and then that becomes their foundation for any discussion.  

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5 minutes ago, BuckeyeChaos said:

Agreed that he shows the work. However if I'm listening to podcasts by him and others on this site touting his RSP and his correct rankings it begins to feel self serving if the misses (and there are big ones) are never addressed. I would think that if for no other reason, he would want to address them to figure out what he missed or what piece of the process needs a tweak.

Again, show me the draft "experts" that go back and show their misses. M Waldmen is not
doing anything different then any one else. NFL teams miss and they have a crazy amount of
people ranking players. He does not have to make his adjustments public or his process public.

If you think some one else does a better job buy his services. 

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you guys act like anyone has the ability to evaluate drive/determination once they hit a league above their comfort zone

can't evaluate that til someone gets paid or hit or destroyed by their coach/teammates for a missed block/read etc. And that doesnt happen til they're in the league. 

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33 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I don’t have an issue with Waldman per se.  He does a ton of research and puts out a very thorough product.  I think he is not aware of how much his personal opinion factors into his evaluation at times, which can have a real negative impact.  He seems to hit and miss about as regularly as most of his competition.  

It’s the weight that some here give his opinion, as though if he states something it becomes fact even though it certainly is not, and then that becomes their foundation for any discussion.  

This. He does the same old same old- he falls in love with certain Ayers, or let's his own personal bias impact his ratings. 

 

And I think the second bolded is by far the biggest issue... people take his word as gospel around heres when hes just a guy. He does a lot of work, but what does that give you? the same hit/miss as anyone else. 

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7 hours ago, BigTex said:

As for Treadwell, he was all hype. He never did anything in college yet people still drafted him high. He was an obvious miss in my book, someone who’s high school hype got him drafted high. SMH it happens every year, I let people draft these type of players. Find the player that actually performs in college and he still might not make it in the NFL draft a player who did squat in college.....we’ll that’s on you.

Tex

Big Tex not being snarky AT ALL, can you tell me of players this year you have that same feeling about? I just don't watch a lot of college football and I'd love to avoid drafting the next Treadwell (I drafted him in like 2-3 leagues, ouch) You can PM me if you'd rather not post publicly. 

Edited by ffmail4me

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I think for the cost the RSP offers a ton of info. Matt has his hits and misses like everyone but offers a non-traditional ranking which I appreciate. Soulfly brings up a great point...you just cannot determine how a player will transition from college to the NFL. It is a big leap physically and mentally. We do not know how hard a player will work or if they will be held back by injury. These factors are just too hard to project and play a large role in success at the next level.

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40 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

you guys act like anyone has the ability to evaluate drive/determination once they hit a league above their comfort zone

can't evaluate that til someone gets paid or hit or destroyed by their coach/teammates for a missed block/read etc. And that doesnt happen til they're in the league. 

 

If you charge for it, that means you’re giving the expectation that you have insight that others don’t.

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Eh I don’t see it different than anyone else. I take rankings with a grain of salt because no one really knows. I at least like to hear their reasoning for it. But at the end of the day I don’t fault anyone for being wrong. Scouts in the NFL are wrong all the time and they still make millions. 

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9 hours ago, BuckeyeChaos said:

So first off I respect the amount of work Waldman puts in and his knowledge around the evaluation process. However over the years I have seen pretty much the same hit or miss with his rankings than to any other. I know he’s had hits like like being down on McFadden and pointing out undrafted guys line Peyton Barber and the Crow. However he’s missed bad on some guys he banged the table for guys like Ameer Abdullah and Cody Latimore(the list is much longer) and also he was down on guys like Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. I can let pass missing on guys like Treadwell since everyone was missing on him. Worse than the misses is the absolute disregard of the miss. If there was follow up commentary and process adjustment id be in. Instead it’s a total dismissal and move on

Its Possible that I'm missing something and need to use the rankings differently so please let me know if I"m alone in this assesment.

 

Hey Matt at least we can both be happy the Browns are back on the map. ( you were right about Chubb although anyone who saw him pre injury was also way in)

Not sure what prompted this post but making a clear evaluation about scouting reports is all about context, not what one person arbitrarily thinks of an evaluator.

PFF has a system where it is all about putting things into their system.  They are able to criticize individual scouts by claiming their system ranks each and every player with the same system so they are able to claim that they are consistent over years because they have context of putting in all data of each and every player.  They can self reference and feel confident that even if they got it wrong they used the same system to rank players.

Matt Waldman does the same thing.  He can defend himself by saying he does the work and ranks each and every player using his system.  He can self reference over time to see how he derived his ranking.

PFF has many different people with many different backgrounds but they use the same system.  Every person has a vastly different story/background so even if they use the same system it isn't the same person comparing players over years in the same system as it is with Waldman.

No one, no team, F'ng NFL guru/muckity-muck like Belichick gets it right consistently so if you criticize without any context of how you come to your conclusion other than he got this one wrong and that one wrong, oh he possibly got one right but he's terrible because you say so. 

Nope, how someone ranks compared to other evaluators or scouting systems or even NFL gurus puts things into some sort of reasonable context.  You didn't even put Waldman into proper context on his calls over the years let alone stack him up to really see how he fairs.

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1 hour ago, Elevencents said:

Scouts in the NFL are wrong all the time and they still make millions. 

 

Wow.  Looks like I need to switch over from my Meteorology major.  Sweet!

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3 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Not sure what prompted this post but making a clear evaluation about scouting reports is all about context, not what one person arbitrarily thinks of an evaluator.

PFF has a system where it is all about putting things into their system.  They are able to criticize individual scouts by claiming their system ranks each and every player with the same system so they are able to claim that they are consistent over years because they have context of putting in all data of each and every player.  They can self reference and feel confident that even if they got it wrong they used the same system to rank players.

Matt Waldman does the same thing.  He can defend himself by saying he does the work and ranks each and every player using his system.  He can self reference over time to see how he derived his ranking.

PFF has many different people with many different backgrounds but they use the same system.  Every person has a vastly different story/background so even if they use the same system it isn't the same person comparing players over years in the same system as it is with Waldman.

No one, no team, F'ng NFL guru/muckity-muck like Belichick gets it right consistently so if you criticize without any context of how you come to your conclusion other than he got this one wrong and that one wrong, oh he possibly got one right but he's terrible because you say so. 

Nope, how someone ranks compared to other evaluators or scouting systems or even NFL gurus puts things into some sort of reasonable context.  You didn't even put Waldman into proper context on his calls over the years let alone stack him up to really see how he fairs.

The thing about PFF is they are owned/run by NFL players. They get feedback from NFL as well as ex-NFL players. Their Combine Coverage was 2nd to none. NFL GMs and Scouts were telling them (PFF) how they use their data to help evaluate players. It was interesting, I know I tend to mention them a bit but they are not the only ones I use but I do so for different reasons.

Tex

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4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Big Tex not being snarky AT ALL, can you tell me of players this year you have that same feeling about? I just don't watch a lot of college football and I'd love to avoid drafting the next Treadwell (I drafted him in like 2-3 leagues, ouch) You can PM me if you'd rather not post publicly. 

:black dot:

Yes, I will. First, let me say I don’t any further past a top 30, anything more than that is a complete waste of time. I used to study 100 players, cut it to 75 then 50....all a waste (Rookie picks). My theory over the last five seasons now is the the NFL hit rate is small then I should narrow my own eval and don’t spend too much time on “hidden gems” but stick with I know to what has been shown to be more successful and what actually does translate to NFL success. 

With that being said there’s only one player that is getting a lot of hype that maybe be good because he has the family pedigree but was not even the best on his own team and that’s Metcalf. I will pass on him because where he’s being drafted. I have two other WRs I’m more focused on that performed well in college, hit on the courses at the Combine that has proven to matter to be successful at the NFL level.  What makes Metcalf interesting is he is a freak of nature but also (again) he does have that family pedigree. 

I put 65% of weight on the NFL Draft so I’m just at the stage of watching complete games. So I’ll likely have an final avoid list around June/July if you are interested.

I do watch complete games, search my name and Draft Picks and you’ll see some of the videos I used to put on this site. I’m 100% NOT an expert, scout or any sort but I like to watch complete, full games in the offseason. It’s time consuming but it’s fun.

i’ll keep In touch,

Tex

 

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Hard to measure character, brains work ethic, and heart.

Edited by JohnnyU
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6 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

If you charge for it, that means you’re giving the expectation that you have insight that others don’t.

perhaps. or they're charging you for the boatloads of information you'd have to spend countless hours compiling yourself?

i see it both ways (this from someone who stopped subscribing to FBG premium a few years ago, so I get your point completely)

Edited by Soulfly3
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7 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

you guys act like anyone has the ability to evaluate drive/determination once they hit a league above their comfort zone

can't evaluate that til someone gets paid or hit or destroyed by their coach/teammates for a missed block/read etc. And that doesnt happen til they're in the league. 

also motivation/maturity level once a player gets $$$. Money can drastically change people .

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You’re better off doing your own rankings... and you’re better off using analytics. Keep it simple. Hit rate is higher in first three rounds, draft prospects that meet highest hit rates for the thresholds you identify and draft who you want not who someone else tells you is good.

Jeremiah has Riley Ridley over AJ Brown... this is the guy leading the charge on Josh Jacobs and guys like Waldman and Bloom are just riding the wagon right off the cliff. Honestly some of these guys are embarrassing. Fine, it’s a nice hobby and you’ve put your head on the chopping block... maybe apply some math, logic and reason to your rankings instead of just gut checking all the time. That’s FBG’s in a nut shell though. That’s why anyone who gives a #### is running out the door. Not to mention staff just going by aliases and targetting posters.

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44 minutes ago, BigTex said:

The thing about PFF is they are owned/run by NFL players. They get feedback from NFL as well as ex-NFL players. Their Combine Coverage was 2nd to none. NFL GMs and Scouts were telling them (PFF) how they use their data to help evaluate players. It was interesting, I know I tend to mention them a bit but they are not the only ones I use but I do so for different reasons.

Tex

Good reply.

I like PFF but you know PFF  has gotten criticism from some NFL circles for inaccurate evaluations since they would not have any idea of specific assignments on plays so could have given a poor grade due to misreading what a player's assignment was.  

They admit potential errors in their grading system so I would have to imagine they figure errors even out in the end grade which is reasonable.

Their system seems complex enough to use statisticians to atone for variance errors but with many people using judgement calls the GIGO rule of data applies (Garbage In Garbage Out). 

Waldman must have his own built-in errors in his system but he is one person so that negates different individual data variance error.

I like people who do their own work.  I take in as much from many sources and look for two things:

1.  Strong correlations on players - helps to sort through tons of data but most will come to same conclusions on players

2. Wild variance on players - this is where potential bargains can be found

Guys like Greg Cosell does not put in the work of PFF or Waldman but he has his own unique take which I find refreshing.  I like people like Waldman who do the work and do not just copy other people because he will come up with more wild variants and that is one of the keys to finding bargains IMHO.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Hard to measure character, brains work ethic, and heart.

Especially from Waldman's  end of it. He isn't interviewing coaches or doing any real background checks on the player. He wouldn't know if a guy is lazy in practice, has a bad attitude, isn't passionate about football, will be the type to overindulge once he gets paid, has a drinking problem, etc. 

 

7 hours ago, Elevencents said:

Eh I don’t see it different than anyone else. I take rankings with a grain of salt because no one really knows. I at least like to hear their reasoning for it. But at the end of the day I don’t fault anyone for being wrong. Scouts in the NFL are wrong all the time and they still make millions. 

NFL scouts do not make millions. It's a pretty crappy job with lot of travel, long hours and often mediocre pay. I have heard interviews with some of the former scouts and we are talking like $40,000-50,000 a year. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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8 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

you guys act like anyone has the ability to evaluate drive/determination once they hit a league above their comfort zone

can't evaluate that til someone gets paid or hit or destroyed by their coach/teammates for a missed block/read etc. And that doesnt happen til they're in the league. 

For the most part this is right. We don't know if a player will be like Trent Richardson and basically coast after taking a beating and getting injured.

I think some players do stand out as passionate about the game that you can see from their college play, such as Jarvis Landry. 

For 90% or more of the players though you can't really tell.

When I try to rank these players, the ranking is only intended for their first 3 seasons in the league as we will have a pretty clear picture of how good they are by then. There are some exceptions due to early injuries such as Keenan Allen which make that tough, but most of the time the pre NfL draft can be forgotten about by the 3rd season.

I have made plenty of mistakes in ranking players over the years. I do try to learn from those mistakes though. For example I know a lot more about footwork now than I did when I ranked Bishop Sankey pretty high. I think Waldman or anyone who does evaluations like this can learn a lot by going over their mistakes, that is a goal I have, to keep improving every year and to try to avoid making the same mistakes twice.

Last year I was trying to chart players and see if I could get better rankings out of that process, but mostly what I learned is that there is a pretty huge variance in the number of plays in any cut up of a player, that somehow needed to be evened out. While the results of this were interesting, I wasn't entirely happy with the process itself so I didn't do that this year.

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10 hours ago, nightmare said:

Again, show me the draft "experts" that go back and show their misses. M Waldmen is not
doing anything different then any one else. NFL teams miss and they have a crazy amount of
people ranking players. He does not have to make his adjustments public or his process public.

If you think some one else does a better job buy his services. 

Since this has been asked a few times, JJ Zachariason does a very good job of akcnowledging his big misses, looking for explanations for why his model missed on them, and weighing whether they merit a tweak to the model or are just natural variance.  He has done a couple podcasts each of the last two seasons looking back at his predraft and preseason calls and taking note of what he got right, what he got wrong and why.  He’s no more perfect than the other projectors at actually predicting, but on this specific point he is exceptional.

2 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

perhaps. or they're charging you for the boatloads of information you'd have to spend countless hours compiling yourself?

i see it both ways (this from someone who stopped subscribing to FBG premium a few years ago, so I get your point completely)

This is why I will buy a draft guide like the RSP.  I get lots of disparate views from the Shark Pool, but do not have time to do a lot of tape watching and scouting for myself, so I might get one or two as a starting point.  When I find a spot where my chosen guide is way off of the Shark Pool or aggregate adp outlook, then I know which players to devote my very limited film time to to get the most bang for my buck.

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odd to start a thread just to say negative things about someone...🤔

Edited by Rig24

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Especially from Waldman's  end of it. He isn't interviewing coaches or doing any real background checks on the player. He wouldn't know if a guy is lazy in practice, has a bad attitude, isn't passionate about football, will be the type to overindulge once he gets paid, has a drinking problem, etc. 

 

NFL scouts do not make millions. It's a pretty crappy job with lot of travel, long hours and often mediocre pay. I have heard interviews with some of the former scouts and we are talking like $40,000-50,000 a year. 

I was being facetious. I guess I needed to add a smiley face or something. I really confused the meteorology major. 

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Concur with Rig24.  Furthermore, I doubt the OP has thoroughly read the RSP or listened to enough of Waldman's podcasts to realize that Matt does in fact acknowledge he doesn't bat perfectly, and that he isn't addressing off the field factors.  He also can't predict people's work ethic, intelligence, or cultural fit with the teams... or the team's coaching staff's willingness to tailor to the talent.  There are so many variables which is why the NFL itself misses so much. 

I listen to various analysts, but Matt is definitely in my top 2, and I can certainly tell you he's contributed to some of my FF championships.

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9 hours ago, Elevencents said:

I was being facetious. I guess I needed to add a smiley face or something. I really confused the meteorology major. 

Oh sorry went right over my head. 

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14 hours ago, Rig24 said:

odd to start a thread just to say negative things about someone...🤔

I started a thread here to talk about different NFL draft analysts and it probably should have just been posted here.....

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/774900-scouting-the-scoutsnfl-draft-guides-comparisonopinion/

... but I liked the OP because not all these guys opinions are equal. I definitely weigh the thoughts from some people more heavily than others. Waldman is among my favorites because he does a good job of telling you WHY he's high on a certain guy. 

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On 4/1/2019 at 3:48 PM, Bronco Billy said:

If you charge for it, that means you’re giving the expectation that you have insight that others don’t.

But as a consumer you take on the responsibility of defining what you are buying as well. 

For instance, is Waldman selling information and analysis on who a prospect is OR is he selling a prognostication of what a prospect will do in the NFL? I take his product as the former and while he may talk about translatable traits in the next level I don't expect him to tell me who will be rookie of the year. It's a lot like any other other site related to fantasy football. You can just blindly follow the advice of any site and blame the site if you don't win or you can use the information and analysis from a website to help you form your own opinions and win/lose on your own choices.

Waldman does have insight on college prospects that I don't have because I am simply unwilling to watch as much tape as he does. But insight doesn't mean he'll be able to accurately predict who will succeed and who will fail in the NFL. If Ameer Abdullah would have been drafted by the New Orleans Saints for instance, his career could have followed a much different path. And Kamara might still be a good player on the Dolphins but would he have been as successful?

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19 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Hard to measure character, brains work ethic, and heart.

I think Waldman has at least two of those. And that's at least one more than most of the posters in this forum, so.....

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On 4/1/2019 at 6:28 AM, BuckeyeChaos said:

Its Possible that I'm missing something and need to use the rankings differently so please let me know if I"m alone in this assesment.

I do think most draft analysts would be well served to go back and look at why they might have missed on a prospect so this is a fair subject. 

People think of me as a PFF-Hater but here are a few plugs for them....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxMYAVCq71A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPzyDD6RacQ

I wouldn't say that you should use the rankings differently, but I would say that you should probably focus on the analysis of the traits of the player more than the rankings. If you focus on the analysis(and it's quite good imo) from Waldman you can create your own rankings.... although, it's always good to draw information and opinions from multiple sources. He will tell you WHY he's high on a prospect.

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On 4/1/2019 at 6:45 AM, nightmare said:


M Waldmen shows his work. I don't think any other scouting service does.
 

I think the bolded part is completely unfair and untrue. 

There may be members of the media, even big name members of big media, that simply compile rankings and/or lists of players but there are PLENTY of people out there that put in a great deal of work and explain their opinions on players. Sometimes it's more analytics based, sometimes it's more tape based but as long as someone is willing to explain how they got to that opinion I can't really ask much more than that. 

There are some pretty solid folks mentioned in this thread...

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/774900-scouting-the-scoutsnfl-draft-guides-comparisonopinion/

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On ‎3‎/‎31‎/‎2019 at 10:20 PM, BigTex said:

I would not (personally) pay for any (one persons) evaluation of any college player. I paid for Matt’s for a couple of years and just didn’t like the return on my investment some things you just learn to do on your own. Most rankings I’ve found over the years to be full of hits and plenty of misses. Most NFL scouts miss and they are paid to evaluate talent. Matt does put a lot of work, time and effort into his craft and that can’t be taken away from him. There’s just some things you have to learn to do yourself.

Tex

I am not able to watch nearly enough college football to do all of my own evaluations.  During the fall part of my Saturdays are typically spent at a soccer park somewhere and the amount of different leagues, teams, players, etc. that one would have to watch to really have a good feel for all of the variables involved is ridiculously high.  I may take the rankings with a grain of salt but I do like to go through the RSP and read through all of the player descriptions where all of their stats, size and speed numbers, and their perceived strengths and weaknesses are given in a great amount of detail.  I also look at other sources of info like the Bloom 100, Jene Bremel's rookie tiers, people's rankings here at FBG, and various other sources and don't weigh any single source as the end all of rankings.  I find with the RSP that I can go through it years later if I happen to see a player I don't know much about popping up and doing well after a team change or when getting a  chance after some other personnel moves, etc.

As for those commenting about him not advertising his misses more, you do realize he has a business that he is advertising.  You don't ever hear of a restaurant telling you that they have a mediocre Caesar salad and that the fish isn't usually fresh or a hear a tree service telling you that they don't have a clue how to properly trim a crape myrtle or an apple tree.  NFL teams themselves bring up big wins when trying to sell season tickets, they don't advertise that they loss three straight at the end of the season to miss the playoffs.  No business on the planet emphasizes their weaknesses in their advertising.  The fact that others put more weight into his analysis than maybe they should is not his fault.

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2 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I think Waldman has at least two of those. And that's at least one more than most of the posters in this forum, so.....

Players that are lacking in any of those areas can turn potential to bust in a hurry. 

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2 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

But as a consumer you take on the responsibility of defining what you are buying as well. 

For instance, is Waldman selling information and analysis on who a prospect is OR is he selling a prognostication of what a prospect will do in the NFL? I take his product as the former and while he may talk about translatable traits in the next level I don't expect him to tell me who will be rookie of the year. It's a lot like any other other site related to fantasy football. You can just blindly follow the advice of any site and blame the site if you don't win or you can use the information and analysis from a website to help you form your own opinions and win/lose on your own choices.

Waldman does have insight on college prospects that I don't have because I am simply unwilling to watch as much tape as he does. But insight doesn't mean he'll be able to accurately predict who will succeed and who will fail in the NFL. If Ameer Abdullah would have been drafted by the New Orleans Saints for instance, his career could have followed a much different path. And Kamara might still be a good player on the Dolphins but would he have been as successful?

 

Oh look, a lawyer is here.  Doesn’t ranking the players by position imply which he anticipates will perform better and worse at the NFL level?  Or do you consider his numbering system to just be an arbitrary assignment of order with no comparitive intent?

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51 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Oh look, a lawyer is here.  Doesn’t ranking the players by position imply which he anticipates will perform better and worse at the NFL level?  Or do you consider his numbering system to just be an arbitrary assignment of order with no comparitive intent?

No.

No.

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I bought it today, prettymuch like I have for the past decade. I think it's worth the money.

Also, if you read it, he's pretty clear about his misses, but is happy enough with his hits to trust his process.

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Oh look, a lawyer is here.  Doesn’t ranking the players by position imply which he anticipates will perform better and worse at the NFL level?  Or do you consider his numbering system to just be an arbitrary assignment of order with no comparitive intent?

Waldman himself is prettymuch down on rankings, but admits it's a necessary evil for this type of product. He even tells readers not to pay too much attention to the numerical rankings.

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3 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

No.

No.

 

Okay.  Let’s play your game.  Would it be reasonable for a normal consumer of the product to believe that the rankings indicated the author’s position as to which players would have greater success at the next level?

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2 hours ago, jwb said:

I bought it today, prettymuch like I have for the past decade. I think it's worth the money.

Also, if you read it, he's pretty clear about his misses, but is happy enough with his hits to trust his process.

The bolded.  I haven't been following him that long, but I've heard him talk about his misses often and how recognizing his misses has lead to the evolution of his analysis.  

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Even the most skilled talent evaluator has a huge number of misses over time. You can't possibly quantify every variable, assign a particular value, and determine the potential for success easily. We are dealing with human beings. Humans are complicated and not easily quantifiable in any endeavor, much less one that involves the level of physical punishment that football does. What I look for is process and rationale; I want to know how the evaluator goes about his craft and why a player x rates above player y. The high miss ratio is baked into the equation. Personally, I would never choose to pay for such insight as there is more free content on the internet than I have time to digest. 

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Okay.  Let’s play your game.  Would it be reasonable for a normal consumer of the product to believe that the rankings indicated the author’s position as to which players would have greater success at the next level?

His rankings could reflect how talented he thinks each player is rather than guessing the level of success in the NFL. While those two things are related, as you well know, landing spot and system matters almost as much as skill.... at least early in a players career. Rankings can be made based on the relative ceiling of a player if he were to land in the perfect situation or the floor of a player in his worst possible situation. Sometimes the player with the highest floor also has the highest ceiling(like Barkley last year) but often there are prospects that are boom or bust like a Dri Archer for instance. There are other players that have a much better chance of being a contributing player in the league longer but don't have the potential to make an impact like Archer did. An example I would use for that type of player is Javorius Allen. You can rank the two players against each other but really you are talking about two completely different types of players. Archer was a home run swing but you would have to be creative to manufacture opportunities for a guy like that. I also think he would have done better on an astro-turf home field. But a guy like Buck Allen can do a lot of things and contribute in different ways so he'll have an opportunity to stick on most NFL rosters. IMO Archer was a high ceiling/low floor player while Allen was just the opposite. You can rank one of those guys at the #7 prospect and the other guy the #9 prospect in a certain draft class but those numbers don't mean all that much unless you know what situation they land in. In addition, depending on what you need on your fantasy roster you may value them completely differently. If I'm drafting a best ball team I'd lean more toward the Archer type of RB because he's more likely to break a few big plays over the course of the season. No matter who got injured in front of him Archer was never going to be a 25rush/game RB. Allen is more likely to consistently make a few catches each week and get a larger part of the work load if the guy in front of him gets injured in a traditional fantasy football league. Understanding the differences between the two players allows you to make the choice which fits into your league best, and Waldman gives you that information so that you can make a more informed decision. In my experience there really aren't cheat sheets that work consistently but the better informed fantasy owners are usually have success over time in the hobby.

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I have no issue with the OPs suggestion that there be a little more previous yr reflection built into the rsp; what went right what went wrong etc. It would be good for Matt and for his customers. Having said that, there is nothing stopping any customer from simply going back to previous yrs and analyzing for themselves what might have been missed. 

Ive bought the rsp for many yrs primarily because it is another perspective and its cheap. Im not some huge waldman fan but I think he has something to add to the conversation. He is wrong and right about as much as everyone else and by everyone else I mean Fantasypros, pff, rotoviz, fbg, jj, dlf, uth, rotounderworld (list uth ahead of kelly just to piss him off) ratcliff, tucker, tags, sig, friedman, silva , dynastyblueprint, on and on, blah, blah blah. ALL of them are very often wrong and sometimes they are spot on about a player eval, fantasy takes etc. I do believe ive learned there is little correlation between enthusiasm for a particular opinion/player and being correct (particularly kelly), they do not know and neither do we.

So we take it all in and make our best decision, thats what its all about, right?

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The biggest thing it comes down to now is competition. A few years ago, Waldman and the RSP were rare. Very few was getting this deep into the scouting, draft, talent evaluation end of it. Now there are tons of people with a wide array of tools covering player evals. 

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Buckeye (OP), you should listen to Matt's RSP podcast this week, which is all about his lessons learned from mistakes.  I think part of what you need to realize, is he evaluates his misses more from a criteria and process standpoint, than individual player misses although those are certainly the manifestation of any errors he's made or flaws in his process.

You may or may not agree with him, or value the RSP, but at least you can't claim he doesn't acknowledge his errors or focus on continuous improvement/ adaptation. 

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