Just getting back around to this, was out of town on vacation last week.
This has garnered some good conversation in my 10 team dynasty league. As I said above, I had gone back over the past drafts to look at actual results. Here's some (with first round "duds" - which you could end up with just one of, highlighted, as well as second round "studs").
2018 draft -
1st - Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, Ridley, Ronald Jones, Penny, Sutton, DJ Moore
2nd - Gallup, Kerryon Johnson, Kirk, Gesicki, T Edmunds, R Smith, B Mayfield, L Jackson, Chandler Jones (was listed as a DL while playing LB), N Hines
2017 -
1st - Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, C Davis, Cook, M Williams, OJ Howard, Perine, Engram, M Lynch (was a FA)
2nd - Kupp, Kamara, Z Jones, J Ross, M Garrett, K Hunt, D Njoku, Joe Williams, D Foreman, C Samuel (Juju was 22nd, Deshaun Watson 28, Mahomes 33)
2016 -
1st - Zeke, L Treadwell, C Coleman, Doctson, M Thomas, S Shepard, Prosise, D Henry, K Dixon, D Booker
2nd - J Howard, T Boyd, W Fuller, Perkins, Goff, H Henry, K Drake, Paxton Lynch, Smallwood, Wentz
2015 -
1st - A Cooper, Gurley, Gordon, Kevin White, D Parker, Yeldon, Winston, Agholor, Green-Beckham, Perriman
2nd - T Coleman, Dorsett, A Abdullah, Matt Jones, Mariota, Funchess, Josh Hill, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Maxx Williams
2014 -
1st - Watkins, Sankey, M Evans, B Cooks, K Benjamin, J Matthews, Beckham, T West, Hyde, T Mason
2nd - Ebron, D Freeman, D Adams, Manziel, Bridgewater, C Latimer, Shazier, A Robinson, Mosley, J Hill (K Mack was 24, Landry was 28)
2013 -
1st - L Bell, Gio Bernard, T Austin, Montee Ball, Lacy, C Patterson, Hopkins, J Franklin, A Dobson, R Woods
2nd - Eifert, K Allen, M Lattimore, Z Stacy, C Michael, Arthur Brown LB, Z Ansah DL, M Wheaton, J Hunter, Ertz (Kelce was #21)
Can continue this back to 2004....but I think the trend has been set. If it's totally random, it's pretty even in my mind and that's only counting in the sure fire top guy of a draft like Barkley, Fournette, Zeke, Cooper/Gurley, Bell. I mean #2 overall picks have been busts twice as often as they have been hits the last 6 years in our league. So you're betting on getting the #1 overall pick, which is only a 10% change in a 10 team league, 8% shot in a 12 teamer to offset the potential of getting 3 very solid starters.