Dynasty - rather have one 1st, or three 2nds? (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

To be clear, I do not have JJSS, he was taken in the 2nd after the following WRs: Corey Davis(1.06), John Ross(1.08), Mike Williams(1.09), Zay Jones(1.10). I took Samaje Perine the pick before JuJu. It hurts less to miss on a 2nd than a 1st obviously, especially when you have 3 in this hypothetical from OP.

But you're missing on that 2nd less in this hypothetical.  If you have three 2nds, you have 3x the shot at getting Juju (or whomever) than if you just had one.  Understand that you still have to have the roster space to hold all these guys.

 

[John Paul]

But you're missing on that 2nd less in this hypothetical.  If you have three 2nds, you have 3x the shot at getting Juju (or whomever) than if you just had one.  Understand that you still have to have the roster space to hold all these guys.

We drop 5, draft 5. Every draft pick transaction includes a draft pick from the trade partner to ensure only 5 picks per team.

 

[Biabreakable]

But you're missing on that 2nd less in this hypothetical.  If you have three 2nds, you have 3x the shot at getting Juju (or whomever) than if you just had one.  Understand that you still have to have the roster space to hold all these guys.

Sure you will need the roster spots for the picks if you keep them. 

In this case where we are talking about 2nd round picks such as Perine and JuJu well you might have kept Perine until Washington drafted Guice and at that point it would be pretty obvious that Perine wasn't going to work out and cut him then. Maybe you wanted to keep him because Guice got injured, but then decided to cut Perine after Peterson signed there and Perine still continued to do not enough. In the case of JuJu obviously you keep him and likely start him.

The opportunity cost of as roster spot is equal to the value of players on the waiver wire who are below replacement value for your specific league roster size and starting requirements.

I calculated this back in 2014 and for leagues with 20 roster spots the replacement value for PPR it is 49 points.

So the opportunity cost of rostering a player who is scoring zero points for you is 49 points. Some players who scored near 50 points last season were Chris Thompson, Ty Montgomerry, Trent Taylor or Torry Smith.

In other words the opportunity cost isn't much, even in leagues with only 20 roster spots. In leagues that are larger, the opportunity cost is less than this.

 

[Hankmoody]

a 10% chance at McCaffrey?  No other player from that draft is worth what Juju is now, though Mixon is close depending on the league structure.  And you could have had two other 2nds from that class - which in my draft could have netted you Hunt or Kamara or D Watson. 

I totally get what you're saying about the 10% shot at getting Zeke or Barkley outweighing everything else.  But you're banking on two things there - the ~10% shot at getting the #1 overall pick, and also that particular draft having that Zeke or Barkley in it (rather than an Ingram, or a Ryan Mathews, or a K Moreno, or a Sammy Watkins, or a Trent Richardson or thus far a Fournette).  Say that it's a 50/50 proposition that a future draft has that awesome stud player that actually lives up to expectation - and you have a 10% shot at actually randomly getting that #1 overall pick....we're talking about a 5% shot at those two things lining up.  Conversely, every rookie draft has guys come out of the 2nd round that hit, and some have multiple guys like that. 

Or they could have netted you Ardarius Stewart, Carlos Henderson, or Joe Williams.  It's always risky to use past drafts to create models, whenever I do this I make sure I use faceless placeholders so the value is correct.  There have been some charts and pick value calculators listed but I don't see them as reflective of the actual non-linear drop in value of picks on draft day.  It's a very rough swag, but here's what I'm talking about picks 1-20 being worth (10 man):

1000
800
675
575
525
475
425
375
335
295
265
235
210
185
165
145
130
115
105
95

So to get from 1.02 to 1.01, in average years you'd need to include a late 1st/early 2nd.  1.05 and 1.06 could get you 1.01 (not Barkley, Zeke, Gurley though).

The average 1st round pick is worth 548 here.  The average 2nd is worth 165 for a 495 total for three 2nds.  Those three random 2nd's could maybe get you 1.05 if packaged together.  This year I would take those three 2nd's but not last year (Guice/Chubb/Penny/Sony) nor 2017 (Mixon/Davis/Cook).

 

[Hankmoody]

In a rookie draft last year i took A Miller(2.04), J Washington(2.07), and B Mayfield(2.10).
I traded B Mayfield for M Trubisky right after I drafted him to the Browns fan.
If I had a strong team I might keep the first(roster space). With a decent or worse team I would take the 2nds.

And Barkley would have netted you far more than all three of those in trade.  And Chubb would have netted you all of them.  And Guice would today.  And most of the rest of the 1st round would get you at least two of them today.   Give me a 10% chance of Barkley all day long.  And guess what, if you don't get it and end up with 1.08?  You can just trade it for two 2nd's.  So I'm paying a random 2nd for the shot at Gurley/Zeke/Barkley?  All. Day. Long.

 

[Stealthycat]

and ... Patriots cut him

wow .... how many trades were made FOR ASJ in the past 6 weeks ?

 

[nightmare]

And Barkley would have netted you far more than all three of those in trade.  And Chubb would have netted you all of them.  And Guice would today.  And most of the rest of the 1st round would get you at least two of them today.   Give me a 10% chance of Barkley all day long.  And guess what, if you don't get it and end up with 1.08?  You can just trade it for two 2nd's.  So I'm paying a random 2nd for the shot at Gurley/Zeke/Barkley?  All. Day. Long.

No one gives up the 1.01 that cheap.  No one gives up the 1.01 for three 2nds.
The poll question was for an average 1st over three average 2nds
I did trade the 1.10 for two 2nds last year.
You or I wouldn't give up Barkley/Eliot for two firsts. 

 

[Hankmoody]

No one gives up the 1.01 that cheap.  No one gives up the 1.01 for three 2nds.
The poll question was for an average 1st over three average 2nds
I did trade the 1.10 for two 2nds last year.
You or I wouldn't give up Barkley/Eliot for two firsts. 

No, it wasn't.  It was for a random 1st.  Which has a random chance to be 1.01.   And you're making my point for me - a random first can be far more valuable than three 2nd's while the downside of the worst case it is a much smaller loss.

And again you're quoting something I never mentioned, no clue where you are getting Barkley/Elliott for two 1sts from.

 

[matttyl]

Or they could have netted you Ardarius Stewart, Carlos Henderson, or Joe Williams.  It's always risky to use past drafts to create models, whenever I do this I make sure I use faceless placeholders so the value is correct.  There have been some charts and pick value calculators listed but I don't see them as reflective of the actual non-linear drop in value of picks on draft day.  It's a very rough swag, but here's what I'm talking about picks 1-20 being worth (10 man):

1000
800
675
575
525
475
425
375
335
295
265
235
210
185
165
145
130
115
105
95

So to get from 1.02 to 1.01, in average years you'd need to include a late 1st/early 2nd.  1.05 and 1.06 could get you 1.01 (not Barkley, Zeke, Gurley though).

The average 1st round pick is worth 548 here.  The average 2nd is worth 165 for a 495 total for three 2nds.  Those three random 2nd's could maybe get you 1.05 if packaged together.  This year I would take those three 2nd's but not last year (Guice/Chubb/Penny/Sony) nor 2017 (Mixon/Davis/Cook).

Great list.  Thanks for your valuations.  As to the bolded, though, the single first could have netted you Royce Freeman, or Ronald Jones, or Perine, or Treadwell, or Corey Coleman, or Doctson, or Prosise, or Ken Dixon.  Sure, you can miss on ALL THREE of those seconds as you point out, but I'd have to think the odds of swinging and missing on all three of them in the same draft are lower than swinging and missing on one single guy in the first.  My league is an IDP league - so you could likely take the top 3 defenders off the board with those picks (which tend to be a bit safer) and at least have something that's got value 2-3 years in. 

 

[nightmare]

No, it wasn't.  It was for a random 1st.  Which has a random chance to be 1.01.   And you're making my point for me - a random first can be far more valuable than three 2nd's while the downside of the worst case it is a much smaller loss.

And again you're quoting something I never mentioned, no clue where you are getting Barkley/Elliott for two 1sts from.

On second look it says both. The top line in blue with white letters says "average" then the text says fall anywhere.

 

[tangfoot]

Great list.  Thanks for your valuations.  As to the bolded, though, the single first could have netted you Royce Freeman, or Ronald Jones, or Perine, or Treadwell, or Corey Coleman, or Doctson, or Prosise, or Ken Dixon.  Sure, you can miss on ALL THREE of those seconds as you point out, but I'd have to think the odds of swinging and missing on all three of them in the same draft are lower than swinging and missing on one single guy in the first.  My league is an IDP league - so you could likely take the top 3 defenders off the board with those picks (which tend to be a bit safer) and at least have something that's got value 2-3 years in. 

It really comes down to what are the odds of "hitting" on a 1st round draft pick vs a 2nd.  If the odds are 50% vs 25%, having three 2nds gives you a better chance of getting a stud.

If it's 66% vs 20%, then the 1st round pick is safer.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

I agree that last year's #1 (Barkley) was likely more valuable than the entire 2nd round - but the year prior (at least in my league) at 11-13 I could have had Kamara, Hunt and Juju vs Fournette alone.  The players in the draft itself also play a part here.  How often is the #1 overall pick so far ahead of his peers that year, and actually lives up to the hype?  Barkely looks to be that, likely Zeke too, and Gurley and Bell.  Will Fournette or Watkins?  Trent Richardson definitely didn't, hard to argue that Ingram was, or Ryan Mathews, or K Moreno back in the day (that's as far back as my league was on MFL where I can easily look it up).

In my dynasty league Hunt and Kamara went 1.07 and 1.08, granted we draft after the NFL draft where Hunt might have been available in the second prior to landing on a RB needy team.  You were probably just as likely to have gotten Zay Jones, Joe Williams, and D'Onta Foreman. 

That said, a lot of this really comes down to one's league setup and the team's needs.  If you were in a deep IDP dynasty league and needed defensive help then those 2nd round picks could get you the best IDP prospects in the draft in many cases.  This arguing about probabilities is a bit unnecessary as with most trades you have a rough idea of what range of the draft the team is likely to finish in and where the picks are likely to come from.  You can typically pick out which teams are playoff teams and likely to have picks later in the round and which teams are likely to be in the running for the 1.01.  Unless you get a good team absolutely decimated by injuries you could probably name the 4-5 teams that are likely to be in the running for the top couple of picks in the draft.  You also know which teams are likely to be title contenders in a dynasty league and likely to have a later pick.  These aren't sure things obviously as injuries, breakout players, etc. can have a tremendous pick on where a team finishes but you could apply better probabilities to getting picks in certain ranges than what are being presented in this thread. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Great list.  Thanks for your valuations.  As to the bolded, though, the single first could have netted you Royce Freeman, or Ronald Jones, or Perine, or Treadwell, or Corey Coleman, or Doctson, or Prosise, or Ken Dixon.  Sure, you can miss on ALL THREE of those seconds as you point out, but I'd have to think the odds of swinging and missing on all three of them in the same draft are lower than swinging and missing on one single guy in the first.  My league is an IDP league - so you could likely take the top 3 defenders off the board with those picks (which tend to be a bit safer) and at least have something that's got value 2-3 years in. 

Agreed, and that's why when I build models I don't use actuals.  Proper models assume even distribution.  Anyone can use hindsight to say "you should do this or that" and easily come up with data to support it, but that's just furthering a narrative.

You didn't originally mention IDP and I actually think the curve is a little less drastic in them - those 2nd's are a LOT more valuable.  It would be a lot closer for me in IDP.