Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Who should win if the delegates are 35% Biden, 34% Sanders, 20% Warren, 11% others?
Buttigieg.Who should win if the delegates are 35% Biden, 34% Sanders, 20% Warren, 11% others?
It is possible in a crazy close scenario the best answer is to go off the board.Buttigieg.
Winner takes most/all on the R side keeps their primaries a bit less convoluted. The D's proportional idea works when there are two main candidates, but when there are up to 6 that have at least a shot at 15% the process gets muddled.Thinking about this today and not only do I think we have a good chance at a contested convention, I think there's a good chance contested conventions for non incumbents becomes the new normal.
Right, I think if Bernie is the only one to get above 15% in California, he'll be the eventual nominee. If Bernie gets something like 30% and a couple or more people get +15% then I think its going to be a complete ####-show at the convention. I could certainly see a situation where this happens and the establishment-super-delegates swing the nomination from Bernie to one of Klobuchar/Pete/maybe Biden.Winner takes most/all on the R side keeps their primaries a bit less convoluted. The D's proportional idea works when there are two main candidates, but when there are up to 6 that have at least a shot at 15% the process gets muddled.
The push to get Biden into the race has caused this mess. Biden was weak enough to keep two other moderates in the race and then Bloomberg swooped in. Meanwhile Steyer easily could pick up a delegate or two in Nevada or SC and then he's on the stage for the rest of the process. With the thought of the convention lurking in their minds, there's no incentive to drop out. A cabinet position could be up for 10 delegates if they are enough to give someone 50% +1
I agree with the general sentiment here, but delegates are awarded by congressional district, so it's possible for a candidate to, for example, finish overall with 14% of the vote in California but still net some delegates.Right, I think if Bernie is the only one to get above 15% in California, he'll be the eventual nominee. If Bernie gets something like 30% and a couple or more people get +15% then I think its going to be a complete ####-show at the convention.
I just don't see it.Bernie is going to get screwed again.
Hopefully he gets screwed or Trump will win in a landslide.Bernie is going to get screwed again.
yeah...noHopefully he gets screwed or Trump will win in a landslide.
I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum. This scares me. Something fishy going on.For what I think is the first time so far, the prediction model at 538 now gives a 50% chance that no candidate will get a majority of delegates: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
Some good polls just dropped for Biden in SC and FLA.I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum. This scares me. Something fishy going on.
The latest South Carolina polls have Biden with a pretty substantial lead. The 538 algorithm is set up so that if Biden does really well in South Carolina, it will give his campaign a boost and he'll rack up a bunch of delegates on Super Tuesday.I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum. This scares me. Something fishy going on.
In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum. This scares me. Something fishy going on.
Anton Gunn: “This is what people need to remember. The Democratic Party has a party. The party decides its nominee. The public doesn’t really decide the nominee. The public gets to vote for President of the United States. But people who are active in the party, they decide the nominee… Superdelegates are very influential in the party.”
"So apparently the new line is 'the public doesn't really decide the nominee,'" Sanders speechwriter David Sirota tweeted in response.
A big win is 20 points in that model. I think he wins by 20+caustic said:In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/
If Bernie wins South Carolina, the model projects him to lead Biden by 527 delegates after Super Tuesday. It's pretty much over at that point.
If Biden wins SC narrowly, the model projects Bernie to lead by 264 delegates after Super Tuesday. A solid lead, but gaining a majority might be difficult.
And if Biden wins big in SC, the model projects Bernie to lead by only 148 delegates after Super Tuesday. This is the scenario in which neither candidate may make it to the convention with a convincing plurality, let alone a majority.
A big win is 10 points. Sorry for the correction, just reading the link right now.A big win is 20 points in that model. I think he wins by 20+
I saw earlier that Biden hasn't campaigned in any Super Tuesday state in over a month? That's really strangecaustic said:In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/
If Bernie wins South Carolina, the model projects him to lead Biden by 527 delegates after Super Tuesday. It's pretty much over at that point.
If Biden wins SC narrowly, the model projects Bernie to lead by 264 delegates after Super Tuesday. A solid lead, but gaining a majority might be difficult.
And if Biden wins big in SC, the model projects Bernie to lead by only 148 delegates after Super Tuesday. This is the scenario in which neither candidate may make it to the convention with a convincing plurality, let alone a majority.
I am imagining something like VEEPSo what actually happens if/when it's contested? After they go through the roll call of states and no candidate has passed the threshold for nomination, do they take some sort of timeout and rush to the "back rooms" for negotiations? I'm picturing the old stock exchange where brokers are shouting offers to each other. But that can't be right. Do a few key people gather at a long table with Barzini at the head and negotiate? Is it already pre-determined that on the second ballot people know who they're committing their delegates to?
538 average is 37 to 17A big win is 10 points. Sorry for the correction, just reading the link right now.
Right now he leads by about 9.5 percentage points over Bernie. 31.1 to 21.4 or something. Off the top of my head.
Indeed it is. I was using the text in the article, not the link. 37 to 17 it is instead of 31 to 21.538 average is 37 to 17
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/
The momentum of this matters as well. Plus, much of this is before the Clyburn endorsement. I think Biden wins huge.Indeed it is. I was using the text in the article, not the link. 37 to 17 it is instead of 31 to 21.
This is a great example of the toxic/divisive nature of Sirota...which is why countries that want discord in the US are attacking Bernie's opponents so heavily.Max Power said:Well someone finally said it.
Anton Gunn: “This is what people need to remember. The Democratic Party has a party. The party decides its nominee. The public doesn’t really decide the nominee. The public gets to vote for President of the United States. But people who are active in the party, they decide the nominee… Superdelegates are very influential in the party.”
"So apparently the new line is 'the public doesn't really decide the nominee,'" Sanders speechwriter David Sirota tweeted in response.
He wouldn’t do that because it would guarantee a Trump re-election.If bernie got plurality, but not the nomination, would he be able to branch off and run third party?
Is that enough time to get on the ballot?
It would also guarantee viability of a third party and no better platform for his ideas.He wouldn’t do that because it would guarantee a Trump re-election.
He seems very sensitive about his legacy, I don't think he would do a third party run (as much as I would LOVE him to). He's said he will support the nominee no matter what a bunch of times... Even if he feels that way I hate that he says it out loud.If bernie got plurality, but not the nomination, would he be able to branch off and run third party?
Is that enough time to get on the ballot?
Maybe I’m wrong on this but as I understand it the big rule change is this year the Superdelegates just stay out of it first round but then come in just like always in the second. I’m not exactly sure why they did this or if I’m stating this correctly. And how superdelegates commit is just a thing that happens leading up to the convention.So what actually happens if/when it's contested? After they go through the roll call of states and no candidate has passed the threshold for nomination, do they take some sort of timeout and rush to the "back rooms" for negotiations? I'm picturing the old stock exchange where brokers are shouting offers to each other. But that can't be right. Do a few key people gather at a long table with Barzini at the head and negotiate? Is it already pre-determined that on the second ballot people know who they're committing their delegates to?
This is correct. Sanders argued to get rid of them completely but in an effort to satiate him, the DNC removed them from just the first round but kept them in subsequent rounds. I think, specifically for this situation honestly. Superdelegates are not pledged to anyone and will most likely vote in line with what establishment DNC elites want.Maybe I’m wrong on this but as I understand it the big rule change is this year the Superdelegates just stay out of it first round but then come in just like always in the second. I’m not exactly sure why they did this or if I’m stating this correctly. And how superdelegates commit is just a thing that happens leading up to the convention.
Sanders supporters will freak, but somebody is going to feel aggrieved in this scenario no matter what. If Sanders comes in with 40% of the delegates and two moderates have 60% between them, I'm all for having the super-delegates pick one of the moderates.If they pick someone that does not have the most delegates at the start of the convention I don’t know what will happen, but it won’t be good.
You are assuming moderates have such overlapping support where you can just add them together as if they are one candidate. This poll (halfway down the page) has Sanders as the most common second choice for Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren supporters, not another moderate. Your scenario would destroy the democratic party based on a premise that is not even correct.Sanders supporters will freak, but somebody is going to feel aggrieved in this scenario no matter what. If Sanders comes in with 40% of the delegates and two moderates have 60% between them, I'm all for having the super-delegates pick one of the moderates.
We've weakened the formal and informal control mechanisms of parties too much, with the result being that get fringe outliers like Trump and Sanders who bulldoze through a crowded field of normies thanks to a highly-energized base of a small number of supporters. That is bad, and it used to happen rarely if ever when party leadership was stronger.
It is now:538–chances of winning a majority of delegates:
No One 60%
Sanders 28%
Biden 11%
Bloomberg 0.6%
Buttigieg 0.1%
If Sanders is beating him head to head in later states, I think he wins before the convention.I going to guess that Bloomberg is going to drop out after Super Tuesday.
If Sanders builds a big delegate lead but then starts losing head-to-head in later states to Biden, it seems perfectly fair for Biden to become the nominee on the second ballot in my opinion. Frankly, it's probably what should happen.
However, if Sanders beats Biden head-to-head, he deserves the nomination.
Big moves on these after yesterday's big news.Drunken Cowboy said:It is now:
No One 65%
Sanders 20%
Biden 15%
Bloomberg 0.2%
Warren 0.1%
That still hasn't factored in Klobuchar dropping out. Biden might be ahead after that.
Yeah, likelihood of a contested convention went from over 50% to almost 0% practically overnight.With Bloomberg dropping out, Biden will be an overwhelming favorite.