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fatguyinalittlecoat

***Official 2020 Democratic Contested Convention Thread***

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4 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

You are correct, and the scenario you describe seems very likely to me.  Tom Perez should be spending every waking hour trying to figure out how to emerge from the convention without tearing the party apart.  

For unity's sake, the nominees themselves would be able to solve this, and pretty simply: when all the delegates have been handed out after the final primary, second place and below should endorse the delegate leader going into the convention.

Imagine that it's Pete in the lead and every state reads off all their delegates for him. Would be awesome.

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31 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

Who should win if the delegates are 35% Biden, 34% Sanders, 20% Warren, 11% others?

Buttigieg.

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6 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Buttigieg.

It is possible in a crazy close scenario the best answer is to go off the board. 

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Thinking about this today and not only do I think we have a good chance at a contested convention, I think there's a good chance contested conventions for non incumbents becomes the new normal.

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49 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Thinking about this today and not only do I think we have a good chance at a contested convention, I think there's a good chance contested conventions for non incumbents becomes the new normal.

Winner takes most/all on the R side keeps their primaries a bit less convoluted. The D's proportional idea works when there are two main candidates, but when there are up to 6 that have at least a shot at 15% the process gets muddled.

The push to get Biden into the race has caused this mess. Biden was weak enough to keep two other moderates in the race and then Bloomberg swooped in. Meanwhile Steyer easily could pick up a delegate or two in Nevada or SC and then he's on the stage for the rest of the process. With the thought of the convention lurking in their minds, there's no incentive to drop out. A cabinet position could be up for 10 delegates if they are enough to give someone 50% +1

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13 hours ago, Gawain said:

Winner takes most/all on the R side keeps their primaries a bit less convoluted. The D's proportional idea works when there are two main candidates, but when there are up to 6 that have at least a shot at 15% the process gets muddled.

The push to get Biden into the race has caused this mess. Biden was weak enough to keep two other moderates in the race and then Bloomberg swooped in. Meanwhile Steyer easily could pick up a delegate or two in Nevada or SC and then he's on the stage for the rest of the process. With the thought of the convention lurking in their minds, there's no incentive to drop out. A cabinet position could be up for 10 delegates if they are enough to give someone 50% +1

Right, I think if Bernie is the only one to get above 15% in California, he'll be the eventual nominee.  If Bernie gets something like 30% and a couple or more people get +15% then I think its going to be a complete ####-show at the convention.  I could certainly see a situation where this happens and the establishment-super-delegates swing the nomination from Bernie to one of Klobuchar/Pete/maybe Biden.

Then Trump wins.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Right, I think if Bernie is the only one to get above 15% in California, he'll be the eventual nominee.  If Bernie gets something like 30% and a couple or more people get +15% then I think its going to be a complete ####-show at the convention. 

I agree with the general sentiment here, but delegates are awarded by congressional district, so it's possible for a candidate to, for example, finish overall with 14% of the vote in California but still net some delegates.  

Bernie's big advantage, though, is that he's going to get over 15% in every congressional district.  Unless things change in the next two weeks, the other candidates will all be above 15% in some districts and below 15% in others.

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On 2/21/2020 at 3:40 PM, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Bernie is going to get screwed again.

I just don't see it.

If Bernie continues to roll, Warren and Biden drop out after super Tuesday.  The only one who stays in is Bloomberg.  No way they give it to someone else if Bernie has a "healthy" plurality. 

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On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2020 at 3:40 PM, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Bernie is going to get screwed again.

Hopefully he gets screwed or Trump will win in a landslide.

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If Bernie has the most delegates and loses due to a contested convention, the democrats will not win a presidential election for a generation. It would turn off so many younger people from voting that it would essentially be hopeless for 30 years. Maybe the DNC would prefer that, what is the point of winning if you are not in control. Also, whoever they pick will lose to Trump. I honestly think that Bernie is literally the only one that can beat Trump due to his ability to peel off disaffected lower class white voters that went overwhelmingly for Trump, especially in contested states like Penn, Ohio, Wisconsin etc. Please keep putting useless surrogates on TV to tell us how it is like James "Obama has no chance at winning in 2008" Carville. 

Edited by huthut
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53 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

Hopefully he gets screwed or Trump will win in a landslide.

yeah...no

Edited by joffer

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

For what I think is the first time so far, the prediction model at 538 now gives a 50% chance that no candidate will get a majority of delegates:  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo.

I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum.  This scares me. Something fishy going on. 

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14 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum.  This scares me. Something fishy going on. 

Some good polls just dropped for Biden in SC and FLA.

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12 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum.  This scares me. Something fishy going on. 

The latest South Carolina polls have Biden with a pretty substantial lead.  The 538 algorithm is set up so that if Biden does really well in South Carolina, it will give his campaign a boost and he'll rack up a bunch of delegates on Super Tuesday.

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10 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

I don't understand. Bernie seems to be gaining momentum.  This scares me. Something fishy going on. 

In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

If Bernie wins South Carolina, the model projects him to lead Biden by 527 delegates after Super Tuesday. It's pretty much over at that point.

If Biden wins SC narrowly, the model projects Bernie to lead by 264 delegates after Super Tuesday. A solid lead, but gaining a majority might be difficult.

And if Biden wins big in SC, the model projects Bernie to lead by only 148 delegates after Super Tuesday. This is the scenario in which neither candidate may make it to the convention with a convincing plurality, let alone a majority.

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Well someone finally said it.

Quote

Anton Gunn: “This is what people need to remember. The Democratic Party has a party. The party decides its nominee. The public doesn’t really decide the nominee. The public gets to vote for President of the United States. But people who are active in the party, they decide the nominee… Superdelegates are very influential in the party.”

 

Quote

"So apparently the new line is 'the public doesn't really decide the nominee,'" Sanders speechwriter David Sirota tweeted in response.

 

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5 hours ago, caustic said:

In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

If Bernie wins South Carolina, the model projects him to lead Biden by 527 delegates after Super Tuesday. It's pretty much over at that point.

If Biden wins SC narrowly, the model projects Bernie to lead by 264 delegates after Super Tuesday. A solid lead, but gaining a majority might be difficult.

And if Biden wins big in SC, the model projects Bernie to lead by only 148 delegates after Super Tuesday. This is the scenario in which neither candidate may make it to the convention with a convincing plurality, let alone a majority.

A big win is 20 points in that model. I think he wins by 20+

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5 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

A big win is 20 points in that model. I think he wins by 20+

A big win is 10 points. Sorry for the correction, just reading the link right now. 

Right now he leads by about 9.5 percentage points over Bernie. 31.1 to 21.4 or something. Off the top of my head. 

Edited by rockaction

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6 hours ago, caustic said:

In short, it's because Biden is gaining in the South Carolina polls. Nate Silver published a piece about this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

If Bernie wins South Carolina, the model projects him to lead Biden by 527 delegates after Super Tuesday. It's pretty much over at that point.

If Biden wins SC narrowly, the model projects Bernie to lead by 264 delegates after Super Tuesday. A solid lead, but gaining a majority might be difficult.

And if Biden wins big in SC, the model projects Bernie to lead by only 148 delegates after Super Tuesday. This is the scenario in which neither candidate may make it to the convention with a convincing plurality, let alone a majority.

I saw earlier that Biden hasn't campaigned in any Super Tuesday state in over a month? That's really strange

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So what actually happens if/when it's contested? After they go through the roll call of states and no candidate has passed the threshold for nomination, do they take some sort of timeout and rush to the "back rooms" for negotiations? I'm picturing the old stock exchange where brokers are shouting offers to each other. But that can't be right.  Do a few key people gather at a long table with Barzini at the head and negotiate? Is it already pre-determined that on the second ballot people know who they're committing their delegates to?

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3 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

So what actually happens if/when it's contested? After they go through the roll call of states and no candidate has passed the threshold for nomination, do they take some sort of timeout and rush to the "back rooms" for negotiations? I'm picturing the old stock exchange where brokers are shouting offers to each other. But that can't be right.  Do a few key people gather at a long table with Barzini at the head and negotiate? Is it already pre-determined that on the second ballot people know who they're committing their delegates to?

I am imagining something like VEEP

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40 minutes ago, rockaction said:

A big win is 10 points. Sorry for the correction, just reading the link right now. 

Right now he leads by about 9.5 percentage points over Bernie. 31.1 to 21.4 or something. Off the top of my head. 

538 average is 37 to 17

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Indeed it is. I was using the text in the article, not the link. 37 to 17 it is instead of 31 to 21. 

The momentum of this matters as well. Plus, much of this is before the Clyburn endorsement. I think Biden wins huge.

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4 hours ago, Max Power said:

Well someone finally said it.

Quote

Anton Gunn: “This is what people need to remember. The Democratic Party has a party. The party decides its nominee. The public doesn’t really decide the nominee. The public gets to vote for President of the United States. But people who are active in the party, they decide the nominee… Superdelegates are very influential in the party.”

 

Quote

"So apparently the new line is 'the public doesn't really decide the nominee,'" Sanders speechwriter David Sirota tweeted in response.

 

This is a great example of the toxic/divisive nature of Sirota...which is why countries that want discord in the US are attacking Bernie's opponents so heavily. 

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If bernie got plurality, but not the nomination, would he be able to branch off and run third party? 

Is that enough time to get on the ballot? 

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10 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

If bernie got plurality, but not the nomination, would he be able to branch off and run third party? 

Is that enough time to get on the ballot? 

He wouldn’t do that because it would guarantee a Trump re-election.

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6 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

He wouldn’t do that because it would guarantee a Trump re-election.

It would also guarantee viability of a third party and no better platform for his ideas. 

I dont think anybody knows what he would do for certain if he got the most votes and didnt get the nomination. 

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12 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I am imagining something like VEEP

Hello exactly. 

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Posted (edited)

538–chances of winning a majority of delegates:

No One 60%
Sanders 28%
Biden 11%
Bloomberg 0.6%
Buttigieg 0.1%
 

Edited by caustic

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On 2/28/2020 at 8:58 AM, parasaurolophus said:

If bernie got plurality, but not the nomination, would he be able to branch off and run third party? 

Is that enough time to get on the ballot? 

He seems very sensitive about his legacy, I don't think he would do a third party run (as much as I would LOVE him to). He's said he will support the nominee no matter what a bunch of times... Even if he feels that way I hate that he says it out loud.

If he comes in with a strong lead and they jack it from him I'm hoping Gabbard runs third (though she's repeatedly said she won't also)

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Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2020 at 8:40 PM, NorvilleBarnes said:

So what actually happens if/when it's contested? After they go through the roll call of states and no candidate has passed the threshold for nomination, do they take some sort of timeout and rush to the "back rooms" for negotiations? I'm picturing the old stock exchange where brokers are shouting offers to each other. But that can't be right.  Do a few key people gather at a long table with Barzini at the head and negotiate? Is it already pre-determined that on the second ballot people know who they're committing their delegates to?

Maybe I’m wrong on this but as I understand it the big rule change is this year the Superdelegates just stay out of it first round but then come in just like always in the second. I’m not exactly sure why they did this or if I’m stating this correctly. And how superdelegates commit is just a thing that happens leading up to the convention.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Maybe I’m wrong on this but as I understand it the big rule change is this year the Superdelegates just stay out of it first round but then come in just like always in the second. I’m not exactly sure why they did this or if I’m stating this correctly. And how superdelegates commit is just a thing that happens leading up to the convention.

This is correct.  Sanders argued to get rid of them completely but in an effort to satiate him, the DNC removed them from just the first round but kept them in subsequent rounds.  I think, specifically for this situation honestly.  Superdelegates are not pledged to anyone and will most likely vote in line with what establishment DNC elites want.  

this whole storyline is drip, drip, dripping out; no one can under-represent the damage it will do to the 2020 elections and the democrat party and yet here we are, two days away from Super Tuesday and it seems almost a lock that we’re going to have the dem candidate picked by superdelegate.  If they pick someone that does not have the most delegates at the start of the convention I don’t know what will happen, but it won’t be good.

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3 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

If they pick someone that does not have the most delegates at the start of the convention I don’t know what will happen, but it won’t be good.

Sanders supporters will freak, but somebody is going to feel aggrieved in this scenario no matter what.  If Sanders comes in with 40% of the delegates and two moderates have 60% between them, I'm all for having the super-delegates pick one of the moderates. 

We've weakened the formal and informal control mechanisms of parties too much, with the result being that get fringe outliers like Trump and Sanders who bulldoze through a crowded field of normies thanks to a highly-energized base of a small number of supporters.  That is bad, and it used to happen rarely if ever when party leadership was stronger.   

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59 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Sanders supporters will freak, but somebody is going to feel aggrieved in this scenario no matter what.  If Sanders comes in with 40% of the delegates and two moderates have 60% between them, I'm all for having the super-delegates pick one of the moderates. 

We've weakened the formal and informal control mechanisms of parties too much, with the result being that get fringe outliers like Trump and Sanders who bulldoze through a crowded field of normies thanks to a highly-energized base of a small number of supporters.  That is bad, and it used to happen rarely if ever when party leadership was stronger.   

You are assuming moderates have such overlapping support where you can just add them together as if they are one candidate. This poll (halfway down the page) has Sanders as the most common second choice for Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren supporters, not another moderate. Your scenario would destroy the democratic party based on a premise that is not even correct.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

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I going to guess that Bloomberg is going to drop out after Super Tuesday.

If Sanders builds a big delegate lead but then starts losing head-to-head in later states to Biden, it seems perfectly fair for Biden to become the nominee on the second ballot in my opinion.  Frankly, it's probably what should happen.  

However, if Sanders beats Biden head-to-head, he deserves the nomination.

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On 2/29/2020 at 11:27 PM, caustic said:

538–chances of winning a majority of delegates:

No One 60%
Sanders 28%
Biden 11%
Bloomberg 0.6%
Buttigieg 0.1%
 

It is now:

No One 65%
Sanders 20%
Biden 15%
Bloomberg 0.2%
Warren 0.1%

 

That still hasn't factored in Klobuchar dropping out. Biden might be ahead after that. 

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1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

I going to guess that Bloomberg is going to drop out after Super Tuesday.

If Sanders builds a big delegate lead but then starts losing head-to-head in later states to Biden, it seems perfectly fair for Biden to become the nominee on the second ballot in my opinion.  Frankly, it's probably what should happen.  

However, if Sanders beats Biden head-to-head, he deserves the nomination.

If Sanders is beating him head to head in later states, I think he wins before the convention.

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Looks like the people are siding with Bernie and the Democratic Party/candidates are siding with Biden.  Will be interesting to see what Obama does since he has already supported some of the candidates besides Biden. I could see him supporting Biden if he is the eventual convention winner, but if he supports him now, he pretty much has supported most of them at different times.  But Hillary and Michelle trial balloons are being floated softly in the media now as part of the "well at a contested convention anyone could come in because we will do anything to beat Trump".

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17 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

It is now:

No One 65%
Sanders 20%
Biden 15%
Bloomberg 0.2%
Warren 0.1%

 

That still hasn't factored in Klobuchar dropping out. Biden might be ahead after that. 

Big moves on these after yesterday's big news.

 

No One 61%
Sanders 8%
Biden 31%
Bloomberg 0.1%
Warren 0%

 

When you add in that a No One means a contested convention that Biden almost certainly wins, I think Biden is back to big frontrunner. I expect today will be bigger for Biden than the model predicts and Bloomberg will drop out soon. At that point I think we are back to a contested convention being less likely than an outright Biden victory. 

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