As a defense of
@kutta‘s hypothetical, that’s perfectly sensible.
As defense of the concept of “stacking“ as a season long strategy? Not convincing.
Obviously I agree, have agreed, and will continue to agree with the fact that if someone like Mahomes has a huge day, there is a probability the Tyreek Hill will also have a huge day. But it’s just that… A probability. You even acknowledge that it is not a guarantee. So how can this perceived value be created from something it is merely a possibility, or even a probability?
You specifically state that it creates a “greater” probability.
How do you quantify the probability as greater than if you have two players on separate teams having big days independent of each other within the context of an NFL game? e.g. why would your Hill/Mahomes “stack” be more valuable than say my Mahomes/Hopkins duo?
Just because Hill “might“ have the occasional monster game with Mahomes doesn’t mean you should take Tyreek Hill over DeAndre Hopkins because you have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback.
By suggesting that Hill has more value to the Mahomes owner to achieve the stack , that seems to be the implication. That somehow this magical value created from hypothetical situations is going to change the real world value of either DeAndre Hopkins or Tyreek hill so that they flip-flop in our preseason projections for them.
And I’m still not seeing how that’s possible. I’m not seeing why having Mahomes/hill would be more valuable in any way, shape, or form, then having Mahomes/Hopkins.
The only thing that changes their value on a weekly basis would be the matchups they are facing. That’s why people stack in DFS. But for season long fantasy leagues, there will theoretically be an averaging out across the schedule of favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups.
Over the course of the year, you want to have the players that scored the most points at each position. Whether they are stacked or not they’re going to score what they are going to score. But stacking them in your lineup doesn’t give them more points.
I’m not saying stacking players can’t be exciting. Getting a long double touchdown is one of the holy Grails of fantasy football. I have had many such combinations of players over the last 20 years of playing this game. It is definitely a woo hoo moment.
But it doesn’t add any value in real terms. It merely creates an exciting moment during a game.
Let me put it another way: do you have Patrick Mahomes and you have the Kansas City kicker. You might speculate that with such a high scoring quarterback you’re going to stack a kicker with him so that every one of the touchdowns Mahomes passes for is now seven points instead of six.
You might also speculate that was such a high scoring offense that will be the number one kicker.
And you might be right. Or, that kicker might be less valuable than many others due to the fact they’re kicking PAT instead of FG.
It is also not a guarantee they make every PAT. So you’ve stacked your kicker to get those seven point touchdowns but you only get six From time to time.
Meanwhile, another kicker on a lower scoring team may go five for five on field goals and have a monster day compared to your kicker who had one field goal and two PAT‘s.
And in the rare event the Kansas City gets shut out by another team’s defense, you might get zero from that kicker AND below average day from your quarterback
The point is, you can speculate all day on what might happen. But speculation does not add real world value to fantasy players. Combining them on your team only consolidates risk.