2021 Top 50- First Look (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

For similar reasons, I’m concerned about Sanders if Hurd takes over. The mobile QB of course, not the early leads.

Yeah. Even as I say that though I wonder if this is a consistent truth or not in regard to QB who run a lot of RB who are used as receivers a lot.

I think Kamara is still going to get a lot of targets even without Brees, but its something to keep in mind and look into further.

Kamara and Sanders are and should continue to be top weapons in their offenses. Sean Payton has always used the RB in passing game more than average. So I do expect some continuity with that as long as he is the HC.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

For similar reasons, I’m concerned about Sanders if Hurd takes over. The mobile QB of course, not the early leads.

Sanders wasn't doing much of anything in the receiving game with Wentz -- it was a running joke in the Eagles thread that they kept missing easy connections. So I don't think this is a real concern. 

 

[zamboni]

Sanders wasn't doing much of anything in the receiving game with Wentz -- it was a running joke in the Eagles thread that they kept missing easy connections. So I don't think this is a real concern. 

No question - it was very promising to see Sanders with Hurts compared to with Wentz. I would just be concerned that with Hurts over time, Sanders’ touches would be limited as Hurts would take off a lot and steal goal line TDs. I guess lower quantity but higher quality.  All that said, it was one game and hard to assess just yet.

 

[Deamon]

Trying to read the early tea leaves for next year. Standard scoring.

Kamara is ahead of Cook in PPR scoring by 8.8 points.

This is for Standard Scoring.

 

[Ack88]

For similar reasons, I’m concerned about Sanders if Hurd takes over. The mobile QB of course, not the early leads.

Sanders is another guy difficult to drill down. The QB equation still has not really taken shape for me, but I lean that if Hurts takes the job it likely bumps Sanders down a bit.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is for Standard Scoring.

Ah my mistake.

In standard scoring Cook is 2 points per game ahead of Derrick Henry and 4.5 points per game ahead of Kamara which is a pretty big deal.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sanders is another guy difficult to drill down. The QB equation still has not really taken shape for me, but I lean that if Hurts takes the job it likely bumps Sanders down a bit.

The other side of the running QB affect on RB is that a running QB opens up running lanes for the RB.

 

[zamboni]

The other side of the running QB affect on RB is that a running QB opens up running lanes for the RB.

Also true - Ingram had a top 15 finish in PPR leagues last year even with Lamar running like crazy.

 

[Ack88]

Also true - Ingram had a top 15 finish in PPR leagues last year even with Lamar running like crazy.

Could see that outcome, too, but over the long haul, see that as less likely. Lamar is still good but not what he was in 2019. 
 

Feel like, the larger the sample size, the more likely the running QB scenario gets solved by the defense, leading to less aggregate production from the surrounding players. 

 

[-OZ-]

Could see that outcome, too, but over the long haul, see that as less likely. Lamar is still good but not what he was in 2019. 
 

Feel like, the larger the sample size, the more likely the running QB scenario gets solved by the defense, leading to less aggregate production from the surrounding players. 

You have a point, but 2 of warrick Dunn's better years (above his average anyway) came during Vick's best running years (04 and 06)

 

[The Show]

You have a point, but 2 of warrick Dunn's better years (above his average anyway) came during Vick's best running years (04 and 06)

I think Lamar helps the YPC for Dobbins but hurts the volume. Also without any sort check downs or screens he becomes very TD dependant. Mid range RB2 next year unless something drastically changes. 

 

[leave a whisper]

I think I might go higher. 10-15 range. Especially PPR. I can’t think of too many RBs I’d rather have. 

I play in 1 keeper league, 2 keepers, standard scoring:  I will have to decide on 2 of 3:  Barkley, Ekeler, J Taylor..... I feel Barkley is a must -- Ekeler/JT   will have me overthinking until August 

 

[The Show]

I play in 1 keeper league, 2 keepers, standard scoring:  I will have to decide on 2 of 3:  Barkley, Ekeler, J Taylor..... I feel Barkley is a must -- Ekeler/JT   will have me overthinking until August 

No doubt. Year 2 with Herbert should only be better for both of them. Ekeler is electric. J Taylor may have moreTD upside but Ekeler’s consistent yardage would attract me more. He would be my choice. Add to this Marlon Mack being back in the picture only clouds Taylor’s usage further. 

 

[-OZ-]

I think Lamar helps the YPC for Dobbins but hurts the volume. Also without any sort check downs or screens he becomes very TD dependant. Mid range RB2 next year unless something drastically changes. 

That seems about right, but I wouldn't expect more with a different QB.

 

[Ack88]

Wanted to add some musings as I've looked things over a bit, at least with regard to the top 20 or so:

In looking at the very top of the board, the first 4 RB are all very closely grouped. I think we have a situation where a very reasonable case for anyone of CMC, Kamara, Cook, or Henry goes #1 overall. Unlike previous years, where a pecking order is clearly delineated, this year portends the very top of drafts looking varied. CMC still would be my top option. His average points per game is just insane. Henry could easily be #1 overall in non-ppr formats. He just obliterates the back end of fantasy seasons. Cook is elite in either format and, aside from a few dings here and there, is a reliable top end option. Kamara, if Brees retires, is a potential faller. Hill has not really looked his way in the passing game and the Saints’s offense is texturally different with Taysom under center. IMO, Kamara drops a few spots in 2021 if Brees retires. At this stage, Zeke and Jacobs are a clear notch below the top four. Zeke, should the line return to health and Dak come back from injury, could easily vault up into tier #1. Given these current uncertainties, I’ll keep him with Jacobs and Jones in tier #2. My initial rankings had Jones over Jacobs, but I’m wavering on that declaration. Barkley remains, at worst, a top of the second round choice. I’d feel better pairing him, and mitigating risk, with an established, safe player in close proximity to the round 1-2 turn. More specifically, if I could get Hill or Metcalf at 10 or 11 in 12 team leagues, I’d pull the trigger on Saquon early in round #2.

Having a mid first round pick makes the choices really clear: it’s Adams or Thomas. Again, Drew Brees figures significantly into the round #1 calculus. If he stays, Thomas is a no brainer as a mid first round pick. If Brees retires, Thomas drops at least a half-dozen spots, if not more. I have few doubts that MT comes back full force next year, easily eclipsing 100 grabs if Brees returns. Adams, it could argued, should go higher than #6 overall. For now, because my admitted bias is toward bellcow RBs, I will leave him there. Hill and Metcalf are also locked in as mid to late first round choices. Both are explosive and play in schemes fully committed to maximizing their respective skill sets. Hopkins has been good but not great. Murray has been a little uneven of late so keeping him in the top 15 feels right, but certainly not higher. Allen is a hand in glove fit with Herbert but I am wondering about how the Herbert, Ekeler, Allen triumvirate impacts one another. Ekeler has had absurd volume in the passing game, as has Allen, leading both to be likely top 20 selections. I’ll likely move Ekeler up more as the sample size increases. AJ Brown is a physical marvel and just destroys DBs. His RAC skills are off the charts, the best I’ve seen in a long time. I know many have Joe Mixon fatigue, but I don’t- yet. They’ll pick a lineman high next year and get Burrow back, giving me confidence. I’ll say it right now- if Mixon continues to drop and ends up as a third round pick next year- there’s your league winner. He’s been surprisingly productive with little help over the past few years and, to me, is a great dynasty buy right now. He's someone that I'll be looking to target if his market value continues to fall. I think (but don't have the data) that he has been a top 12 RB over the last couple of years, has no competition for touches, and will be a value.

Would love feedback....

 

[The Show]

Wanted to add some musings as I've looked things over a bit, at least with regard to the top 20 or so:

In looking at the very top of the board, the first 4 RB are all very closely grouped. I think we have a situation where a very reasonable case for anyone of CMC, Kamara, Cook, or Henry goes #1 overall. Unlike previous years, where a pecking order is clearly delineated, this year portends the very top of drafts looking varied. CMC still would be my top option. His average points per game is just insane. Henry could easily be #1 overall in non-ppr formats. He just obliterates the back end of fantasy seasons. Cook is elite in either format and, aside from a few dings here and there, is a reliable top end option. Kamara, if Brees retires, is a potential faller. Hill has not really looked his way in the passing game and the Saints’s offense is texturally different with Taysom under center. IMO, Kamara drops a few spots in 2021 if Brees retires. At this stage, Zeke and Jacobs are a clear notch below the top four. Zeke, should the line return to health and Dak come back from injury, could easily vault up into tier #1. Given these current uncertainties, I’ll keep him with Jacobs and Jones in tier #2. My initial rankings had Jones over Jacobs, but I’m wavering on that declaration. Barkley remains, at worst, a top of the second round choice. I’d feel better pairing him, and mitigating risk, with an established, safe player in close proximity to the round 1-2 turn. More specifically, if I could get Hill or Metcalf at 10 or 11 in 12 team leagues, I’d pull the trigger on Saquon early in round #2.

Having a mid first round pick makes the choices really clear: it’s Adams or Thomas. Again, Drew Brees figures significantly into the round #1 calculus. If he stays, Thomas is a no brainer as a mid first round pick. If Brees retires, Thomas drops at least a half-dozen spots, if not more. I have few doubts that MT comes back full force next year, easily eclipsing 100 grabs if Brees returns. Adams, it could argued, should go higher than #6 overall. For now, because my admitted bias is toward bellcow RBs, I will leave him there. Hill and Metcalf are also locked in as mid to late first round choices. Both are explosive and play in schemes fully committed to maximizing their respective skill sets. Hopkins has been good but not great. Murray has been a little uneven of late so keeping him in the top 15 feels right, but certainly not higher. Allen is a hand in glove fit with Herbert but I am wondering about how the Herbert, Ekeler, Allen triumvirate impacts one another. Ekeler has had absurd volume in the passing game, as has Allen, leading both to be likely top 20 selections. I’ll likely move Ekeler up more as the sample size increases. AJ Brown is a physical marvel and just destroys DBs. His RAC skills are off the charts, the best I’ve seen in a long time. I know many have Joe Mixon fatigue, but I don’t- yet. They’ll pick a lineman high next year and get Burrow back, giving me confidence. I’ll say it right now- if Mixon continues to drop and ends up as a third round pick next year- there’s your league winner. He’s been surprisingly productive with little help over the past few years and, to me, is a great dynasty buy right now.

Would love feedback....

Great great stuff here! I agree with most of what’s said aside from Josh Jacobs. I view him as low RB1 high RB2 type. I don’t question his talent as much as his usage. At times it almost seemed like him and Booker were in a committee. For me the 2nd round seems fitting as his receiving usage is also very sporadic. It will very interesting over the last few weeks of the season to see how Akers, Swift, Dobbins, and Taylor are used to see if one of them could threaten the first round next year. 

 

[Ack88]

More anecdotal thoughts. Apologize for the length as this covers my thoughts on the top 30 or so players:

To me, another interesting point of divergence occurs in the vicinity of the middle of the second round. I think consensus begins to drop and becomes the first point of draft aggression for those not aversive to risk. As an example, certain; safety-oriented drafters playing in keeper or standard redraft leagues would likely not take James Robinson this early due to his poor team, sub-par surrounding cast, and likely regime change, but those who are willing to bypass these risks and believe in his accomplishments would happily jump in here. Both Jonathan Taylor and CEH have had very uneven rookie years, but both are well positioned to outperform their rookie years in 2021. In both cases, the surrounding talent in strong and the organizational structure is stable. In addition, both CEH and Taylor were drafted high, providing an additional level of forgiveness for mistakes. Conversely, there will be those that struggle to let go of the intital projections for both players and carry this into their draft thinking for next year. Miles Sanders is also squarely in this round 2 conundrum- he’s a high level talent with pockets of top tier production. Physically, he has a full skill set, but the QB question, and perhaps, the coaching question may limit his upside. His workload going forward looks murky, not clearly the three down RB we all envisioned just weeks ago. Chase Claypool is another player that elicits serious debate about his 2021 draft position. Just a few weeks ago, he was viewed as a sure fire round 2 pick, but if you had to draft right now, would you pull the trigger here? The real vexing question with many round 2 players is extrapolating relatively small sample sizes and evaluating projected 2021 production vs. risk- as second round draft capital is of high value- are you comfortable with uncertainty? Robinson, Claypool, Taylor, CEH, Dobbins, and Swift are all in this bucket for me. I tend to think that, due to positional scarcity, RBs will continue to be overdrafted, in that managers are typically very uncomfortable entering a season with questions marks at that position. When we look back at the middle of the second round of 2021 drafts in 2022, I’d wager there will be a higher than expected bust rate. To my central point, the middle of round 2 becomes an exercise in extrapolation that perhaps will become slightly more clear by the end of this season, but I’m hesitant to make that proclamation now. Perhaps Nick Chubb, even with missing some time and a limited upside due to KH, merits a higher pick than all of the aforementioned players. On it’s face, he has a higher floor and a more viable workload than all of the referenced cohort group. Even with Mayfield throwing a bit more, his value can withstand a slight uptick in pass attempts in the short term. The Browns are built to run the ball so I don’t place too much emphasis on periodic jumps in pass attempts and/or less than desirous game scripts. I may move Chubb into the top 14 when all is said and done.

The next real layer for debate lies in where to draft a QB and TE. Feel like the back end of round two and the beginning of round three is traditionally where folks begin to pick at the top of both boards. Again, risk aversion plays a role- if you jump in at 23 or 24 overall with Kelce (and, depending on format- he may well be gone, but my lens is non-ppr, so I think he’s more likely to be there) and roll with Mahomes at the top of round three, you have taken two of the absolute safest players in all of fantasy but may have missed out on an elite RB or WR. For those that have a Mahomes, Kelce, top RB stack this year- I’ll bet you are in the playoffs. Then again, you do have the “never take a QB in a single digit round” truthers that simply will not move off this axiom. I initially had Kittle over Kelce, but that’s an easy readjustment for me, although I like Kittle a ton. Kittle, however, may need to contend with a QB change next year, so that question creates a decrease, at least in this moment, in his draft capital. Back to Mahomes- there is no question, none at all, that he is both the best real life and best fantasy QB. Everything is set up for a spectacular, multi-year run. For fun and conversation, who is the real #2 fantasy QB. I still like Wilson, but when Jackson is on, his ceiling is just so absurdly high.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ack88 my first thought about your most recent post is that you think the values of Kamara and Michael Thomas are dependent on Brees playing in 2021.

That is only one season. Maybe these players should be downgraded because of this uncertainty and lack of continuity. You say MT should drop 6 spots sans Brees maybe more. What I am saying is that because of this doubt, perhaps you should meet somewhere in the middle of those two rankings instead. Covering both scenarios.

 

[The Show]

More anecdotal thoughts. Apologize for the length as this covers my thoughts on the top 30 or so players:

To me, another interesting point of divergence occurs in the vicinity of the middle of the second round. I think consensus begins to drop and becomes the first point of draft aggression for those not aversive to risk. As an example, certain; safety-oriented drafters playing in keeper or standard redraft leagues would likely not take James Robinson this early due to his poor team, sub-par surrounding cast, and likely regime change, but those who are willing to bypass these risks and believe in his accomplishments would happily jump in here. Both Jonathan Taylor and CEH have had very uneven rookie years, but both are well positioned to outperform their rookie years in 2021. In both cases, the surrounding talent in strong and the organizational structure is stable. In addition, both CEH and Taylor were drafted high, providing an additional level of forgiveness for mistakes. Conversely, there will be those that struggle to let go of the intital projections for both players and carry this into their draft thinking for next year. Miles Sanders is also squarely in this round 2 conundrum- he’s a high level talent with pockets of top tier production. Physically, he has a full skill set, but the QB question, and perhaps, the coaching question may limit his upside. His workload going forward looks murky, not clearly the three down RB we all envisioned just weeks ago. Chase Claypool is another player that elicits serious debate about his 2021 draft position. Just a few weeks ago, he was viewed as a sure fire round 2 pick, but if you had to draft right now, would you pull the trigger here? The real vexing question with many round 2 players is extrapolating relatively small sample sizes and evaluating projected 2021 production vs. risk- as second round draft capital is of high value- are you comfortable with uncertainty? Robinson, Claypool, Taylor, CEH, Dobbins, and Swift are all in this bucket for me. I tend to think that, due to positional scarcity, RBs will continue to be overdrafted, in that managers are typically very uncomfortable entering a season with questions marks at that position. When we look back at the middle of the second round of 2021 drafts in 2022, I’d wager there will be a higher than expected bust rate. To my central point, the middle of round 2 becomes an exercise in extrapolation that perhaps will become slightly more clear by the end of this season, but I’m hesitant to make that proclamation now. Perhaps Nick Chubb, even with missing some time and a limited upside due to KH, merits a higher pick than all of the aforementioned players. On it’s face, he has a higher floor and a more viable workload than all of the referenced cohort group. Even with Mayfield throwing a bit more, his value can withstand a slight uptick in pass attempts in the short term. The Browns are built to run the ball so I don’t place too much emphasis on periodic jumps in pass attempts and/or less than desirous game scripts. I may move Chubb into the top 14 when all is said and done.

The next real layer for debate lies in where to draft a QB and TE. Feel like the back end of round two and the beginning of round three is traditionally where folks begin to pick at the top of both boards. Again, risk aversion plays a role- if you jump in at 23 or 24 overall with Kelce (and, depending on format- he may well be gone, but my lens is non-ppr, so I think he’s more likely to be there) and roll with Mahomes at the top of round three, you have taken two of the absolute safest players in all of fantasy but may have missed out on an elite RB or WR. For those that have a Mahomes, Kelce, top RB stack this year- I’ll bet you are in the playoffs. Then again, you do have the “never take a QB in a single digit round” truthers that simply will not move off this axiom. I initially had Kittle over Kelce, but that’s an easy readjustment for me, although I like Kittle a ton. Kittle, however, may need to contend with a QB change next year, so that question creates a decrease, at least in this moment, in his draft capital. Back to Mahomes- there is no question, none at all, that he is both the best real life and best fantasy QB. Everything is set up for a spectacular, multi-year run. For fun and conversation, who is the real #2 fantasy QB. I still like Wilson, but when Jackson is on, his ceiling is just so absurdly high.

I enjoy your read and the way you have communicated all of these points. Just for giggles when you have time I’d like to see what your top 30ish or so list looks like in numerical form. 

 

[Ack88]

I enjoy your read and the way you have communicated all of these points. Just for giggles when you have time I’d like to see what your top 30ish or so list looks like in numerical form. 

Thanks. I'm continuing to evolve my top 50 players and will continue to post.

 

[Ack88]

More thoughts in the midst of snow.....

The question I’m beginning to reflect upon is whether or not Julio Jones is still and elite WR. Prior to this season, most folks penciled him in as a rock solid early round #2 choice that ensured a high floor, even with the periodic gaps in TD scoring. He has traditionally been a yardage king with a high target share. My own feeling is that he has peaked and is on the back end of his career. I don’t see him in the way I do AJ Green; he hasn’t fallen off a cliff physically, but his injuries have been problematic this year and the older one gets, the longer it takes to return to full health. Julio feels like a third rounder to me in 2021. Lockett has dipped significantly in production over the past several weeks. Where there may have been some question regarding a 1A vs. 1B pecking order with DK earlier this season, it is now clear that Lockett is the Beta to DK’s Alpha role. Lockett has not maintained his uber efficient status but still sees enough volume and production to be a third round pick. Last summer, James Conner was seen as a clear third rounder with significant upside; he seemingly was well positioned for an increased role and the injuries appeared to be behind him. Some folks saw him as a league winner. The ensuring reality has been underwhelming. Conner has durability issues and the Steelers run so pass heavy at times that Conner is really best viewed as a back end RB #2 at best. He’s a classic example of a player that will be overdrafted because he plays RB and folks are petrified of being light there. For some reason, there remains a collective aversion to leaving a draft without RBs, whereas folks don’t give it a second thought about relying on waivers to fill holes at WR/TE. I do get the position scarcity and VBD narrative, but this year feels like the numbers don’t correlate as strongly as in past years. That would make for an interesting research project. Diggs completed eviscerated the narrative that he would struggle in Buffalo. The Bills creatively scheme and put their position players in favorable situations. The offense is cohesive and Allen has been elite this year- yes, elite. So long as Brian Dabol stays and the other component parts remain, Diggs could jump into my top 25 for next year- think my initial thoughts when this thread began were not aggressive enough on him. Josh Allen has outperformed everything I thought. Coming out of college, I saw the second iteration of Jake Locker- an elite athlete with a cannon, but scattershot arm, who could throw the ball out of the stadium but not be nearly accurate or nuanced enough to deliver consistently catchable balls. I’ll say it openly and loudly- I missed on that call- big time, a major whiff. Watching the arm angles and boots that Allen delivered against the Niners a couple of weeks back were eye opening, truly highlighting what quality coaching can do for a player. Allen is a top 4 QB for 2021 and should go in the top 40.

Cooper and Golladay are very interesting to me- both have performed as legitimate WR #1s in their respective careers and both are the alpha dogs in their respective passing attacks. Depending on where Golladay lands, he could bump into the top 25 again. If he stays in Detroit and Stafford returns, I’ll likely keep him around 30-35 overall. Golladay is an elite red zone target that consistently wins on high pointing contested balls. Cooper is an elite route runner, but has underperformed against elite level corners. He’s not matchup proof and has gone periods of disappearing in games. Dak’s return as a healthy starter to Dallas drives Cooper’s upside. He’s a fine WR2 but don’t see a return to WR1 status, as Lamb will eat further into his target share next year. On his own merit, Lamb will be a likely top 50 selection in redraft/keeper formats, pushed up even further in dynasty. I believe Cooper is locked in to Dallas contractually for one more season, and if ties are cut, Lamb is a top 20 player in 2022, presuming Dallas and Prescott eventually agree to a long term extension. I absolutely love Chris Carson as a real life NFL RB- he is physically devastating and has absolutely no regard for his body in the way Marion Barber did a few years back. He’s like smashing into a truck on ever play, but that style crosses over into frequent injuries and a short career. He’s crushed in games he’s started and finished, but the lack of durability keeps him in the late third to fourth round conversation for me. Ronald Jones and Damien Harris are more than capable. I struggle to follow the logic behind TB’s RB rotation, as RoJo is, based on the eyeball test, clearly the best back on that team. He should see an increase in workload, but I’m tempering expectations for now, but he could also climb into the top 30 discussion. The common refrain is to avoid all NE running backs; I would reframe that question to embed realistic expectations. More specifically, don’t enter that debate thinking any NE runner will become a top 15 RB, because that is unlikely to happen. We can however, if we can find the sweet spot between expectation and value, using the disdain for the committee approach against the “never NE RB group”, land a back like Harris at a draft position that provides value. More specifically, I’ll keep Harris in my top 50- he’s shown quite well in the early down role and the Patriots offense, both now and likely going forward, will be run heavy, even if the Pats draft an arm early next year. I posit that he’ll get an increased workload in 2021 and has shown to clearly be a superior runner to Michel.

 

[Biabreakable]

Conner has durability issues and the Steelers run so pass heavy at times that Conner is really best viewed as a back end RB #2 at best. He’s a classic example of a player that will be overdrafted because he plays RB and folks are petrified of being light there. For some reason, there remains a collective aversion to leaving a draft without RBs, whereas folks don’t give it a second thought about relying on waivers to fill holes at WR/TE. I do get the position scarcity and VBD narrative, but this year feels like the numbers don’t correlate as strongly as in past years. That would make for an interesting research project. 

The season isn't over yet but lets look at a couple base lines and see if your hypothesis holds true or not.

RB 24 in PPR 2020 has scored 136 points.

WR 24 in PPR 2020 has scored 169 points.

Alvin Kamara is 167 points over the baseline.

Tyreek Hill  has 132 points over the baseline

So for the number one spot the RB is worth more.

If your league starts 3 WR and 2 RB however the WR baseline moves to 36 which has scored 143 points. This means Hill scored 159 points above the baseline which is closer, but still 8 points behind the top RB VBD number.

RB 22 (Swift) has scored 142 points. Similar to what a WR 36 has scored.

The scarcity is the main issue here. There just are not very many bell cow RB in the NFL. Passing keeps going up and running going down. 

The way that people have responded to this is by valuing the RB more, even though collectively the points that RB are scoring is going down.

Having a top 12 RB is really important because the RB twos are not doing that much compared to WR twos. Of course people are drafting RB they think will be top 12 but end up being RB twos.

 

[Ack88]

The season isn't over yet but lets look at a couple base lines and see if your hypothesis holds true or not.

RB 24 in PPR 2020 has scored 136 points.

WR 24 in PPR 2020 has scored 169 points.

Alvin Kamara is 167 points over the baseline.

Tyreek Hill  has 132 points over the baseline

So for the number one spot the RB is worth more.

If your league starts 3 WR and 2 RB however the WR baseline moves to 36 which has scored 143 points. This means Hill scored 159 points above the baseline which is closer, but still 8 points behind the top RB VBD number.

RB 22 (Swift) has scored 142 points. Similar to what a WR 36 has scored.

The scarcity is the main issue here. There just are not very many bell cow RB in the NFL. Passing keeps going up and running going down. 

The way that people have responded to this is by valuing the RB more, even though collectively the points that RB are scoring is going down.

Having a top 12 RB is really important because the RB twos are not doing that much compared to WR twos. Of course people are drafting RB they think will be top 12 but end up being RB twos.

Thanks. My main league starts 3 WR, so my lens skews differently than start 2 WR managers. I'm with you in that the lack of bellcow RB drives the cost up, sometimes way up. My point is that some drafters try and shoehorn in RBs as potential bellcows and/or draft RBs, expecting a ceiling level of production, which does happen, but rarely. 

I think the RB/WR pendulum will swing back more towards WR next year, albeit an incremental change. 

 

[Ack88]

The final anecdotal notes on my initial top 50. I'll be adjusting the numerical rankings soon and repost a revised list in the near future and am looking forward to more debate:

Chris Godwin has not had the year many of us expected and hoped for. Certainly, the broken finger contributed, as he missed multiple games. Additionally, AB has added additional target competition. Further, Brady has been good, but not great. He’s beginning to show his age by missing throws he never would have missed on just a couple of years ago. The Brady fit into the Arians scheme, more reliant on holding the ball and waiting for longer developing routes to clear, has been an uneven fit for TB 12 at times. Tampa’s o-line, while not bad, certainly is less effective as a pass blocking unit than what Brady saw for nearly two decades in NE. Add in target competition with Evans and, to a lesser extent, Gronkowski, and what we’ve seen likely represents Godwin’s floor. As such, I do project an increase in targets next year, along with more games played, but the ceiling we saw with Winston and Fitzpatrick is simply not there. Reasonably, Godwin makes for a WR2, but won’t likely be top 5 again anytime soon.

Terry McLaurin is a player. Unfortunately, his QB collection has been underwhelming. Haskins hasn’t been able to truly develop, Alex Smith is a remarkable story but pedestrian with regard to fantasy football output, and there could be a new signal caller in 2021. Part of roster construction entails sometimes patience; we know McLaurin has talent and know he can produce, so we’re willing to obtain his services oriented towards future returns. In redraft, he’s a likely fade in the short term, but in keeper and dynasty format, I like his medium to longer term ROI. His teammate, Antonio Gibson, looks dynamic and explosive but the sample size is small. Similar to McLaurin, the surrounding talent plays a role in evaluating his prospects. Given the insatiable thirst for high upside RBs, he’ll be drafted based upon the highest threshold of this range of outcomes. Be prepared to, should he be ranked in the top 30 next year based upon garden variety, largely generic ADPs, such as Yahoo or ESPN, to draft him in the top 20. Players like this typically have ADPs as a lagging indicator of actual value. Cam Akers is similarly positioned; he looks the part and has performances that highlight what a ceiling looks like. The difference with Akers is that Henderson and the irreplaceable Malcom Brown continue to permeate the LA backfield from time to time. McVay did give Gurley a massive role when healthy- so at least there is precedence for a massive workload should Akers flourish. Rivera is more committee oriented, which leads me to slightly favor Akers over Gibson- but admittedly, haven’t landed on that decision just yet. Akers was out of my initial top 50 but that will change as my next iteration unfolds over the next few weeks. Robert Woods gets no love because folks become enamored with uber-upside players and marginalize dull but steady production. Everyone wants to be the owner that nailed the DK Metcalf’s of the world, but those are such outlier situations. Again, circling back to roster builds- if you can land a player like Woods, who will be a rock solid WR 2, at a value, perhaps a round later than the ADP metrics, you’ve obtained a high floor player that allows you to take calculated risks at other spots (ie: taking a RB like Akers or Gibson above ADP), creating a balanced roster. Managers that are overly positioned with high ceiling, low sample size players are bound to have an above average bust rate. Managers that construct a squad with solely low floor players typically don’t have enough spiked weeks to make a deep playoff run. By the time the playoffs come around, if you are, say one of 4 or 6 teams- you simply won’t win two or three weeks in a row without spiked weeks. Thus, your roster has to include certain players with elevated risk. Robert Woods is a risk mitigator- unexciting but predicable. Sure, Goff is slightly above average and Kupp is also a solid option, but Woods is a safe 1100 yards with 5-7 likely TDs, a reasonable WR 2 option that could perhaps come at a WR 3 cost due to the perpetual ceiling chasing in drafts.

 

[Ack88]

Updated on 12/22/20. Standard scoring, keeper format- list will be a hybrid of redraft and dynasty. My own lens is to draft more conservatively in the early rounds and to lean towards RBs. Appreciate any discussion: 

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase II

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload that trends run first.

3.      Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come. The Brees retirement question may drop him a couple of spots.

4.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats.

5.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low.

6.      D. Adams- My first “had to think about it” selection. Have to take Adams over the remaining RBs because he simply always produces.

7.      M. Thomas- Still an easy choice in round #1. A virtual lock for 110 grabs + in 2021 in Drew returns. Will drop, perhaps significantly, if Brees retires.

8.      A. Jones- Proclamations of an efficiency regression proved to be false. Still love him in this offense. If he leaves via FA, a likely downgrade.

9.      DK Metcalf- Russ is cooking. DK is #1 target. Hasn’t peaked yet.

10.  T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

11.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

12.  Jacobs- A high quality back with receiving chops, but this skill set is under utilized by the current staff.

13.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens.

14.  Mixon- Hoping Burrow comes back in full and line issues addressed in the draft. I’ll bet I’m higher than most but should come back with a better line and massive workload. Has sneakily finished as a back end RB1 in the past, even with dry stretches.

15.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

16.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.

17.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast and QB uncertainty.

18.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

19.  T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB

20.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

21.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth.

22.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Presuming Marrone and others are purged, what will incoming regime do?

23.  D. Swift- The talent and opportunity appear to be there for a significant jump forward in year 2.

24.  J. Taylor- Hasn’t looked great on an aggregate level, but he is a rookie and has flashed recently. Workload going forward should grow.

25.  CEH- Uneven rookie year. KC still pass heavy. May be disproportionally downgraded based upon performance relative to, perhaps unreasonably high expectations.

26.  C. Ridley- Growth projections many forecast have come to fruition.

27.  Claypool- Who would have thought that Robinson and Claypool would be, respectively, the best RB and WR at their position after the draft? If Ju-Ju leaves, imagine what could be.

28.  Dobbins- Need Ingram or Edwards to leave. Has looked really good in game action I’ve seen.

29.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.

30.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production.

31.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

32.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term.

33.  J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday.

34.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

35.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid.

36.  J. Conner- Hasn’t hit the upside we all hoped for. Long term outlook cloudy. If he signs with the Steelers, will remain in this range.

37.  A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.

38.  K. Golladay- Will be a great value in 2021. Team shakeup on the horizon. 2021 landing spot will play a major role in his ranking.

39.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

40.  R. Wilson- The chef cooks in a kitchen full of top shelf ingredients.

41.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

42.  K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021.

43.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside.

44.  A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation.

45.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays.

46.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves?

47.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success.

48.  McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set.

49.  Godwin- Don’t feel AB will be in TB long term, Evans not ideal for Brady’s skill set, leaving Godwin as an excellent WR option next year. Godwin is a FA, so that is a development to follow.

50.  R. Jones- Moves up if Fournette leaves. Will Vaughn take a role in 2021? 

 

[Sam Quentin]

Kelce is probably a 1st rounder, not a late 3rd

 

[joey]

:converse:

 

[Biabreakable]

So the main changes I see from the OP and Dec 22 are

Cook moved ahead of Kamara to number two. This makes sense in standard scoring format.

Jacobs moved from pick 7 to pick 12. I don't think much has changed about the outlook for Jacobs besides him being injured recently. I agree he needed to move down because he was too high. The way that he and David Montgomery have been playing lately reminds me that I thought they were even prospects as far as talent level and that Montgomery may be the more talented RB. 

Aaron Jones. Your statement about the TD regression is incorrect. Jones scored 19 TD in 2019. He currently has 10 TD with two games left to go. If that isn't regression I don't know what is.

Joe Mixon. Several people have responded that they thought Mixon was ranked too high. Even huge Mixon fans. Yet you stick to your guns on this one. Its standard scoring. I would at least have Chubb ahead of him and ahead of Jacobs and Jones as well. Chubb is RB 5 right now in PPG.

Diggs is likely too low. He is producing at a similar level as Hopkins and he is younger. You did move him up from 32 to 20 though.

CEH has dropped from pick 18 to 25 which seems appropriate. A Andy Reid RB isn't so great in standard scoring.

Claypool was not the best WR after the draft. That is Justin Jefferson. Robinson likely not the best RB of 2020 either although he does have the numbers.

McClaurin is too low. This guy is a great WR. Glad he at least made the list but I would take him over Lockett for example.

Good stuff ack88 and thanks for posting.

 

[runner06]

So the main changes I see from the OP and Dec 22 are

Claypool was not the best WR after the draft. That is Justin Jefferson. Robinson likely not the best RB of 2020 either although he does have the numbers.

Good stuff ack88 and thanks for posting.

Yep, I first want to say thanks for posting ack88.

What did stick out to me most was Claypool's ranking.

As you mentioned, Jefferson currently looks like the best WR in this class. Is Claypool even the 2nd best wide receiver in this class though? 

Note my league is 0.5 PPR. I know these rankings are are standard scoring so there would be difference in how many points someone has or how many points a player is averaging.

A lot of people are very high on Lamb who is averaging a similar number of ppg then Claypool. Additionally, Brandon Aiyuk in my league is averaging more ppg then Claypool with a worse QB situation and a higher draft pedigree. I think Aiyuk missed the first game of the season due to injury and two more from being on the Covid list. Finally, there is Tee Higgins who is not far behind Claypool as well.

 

[Ack88]

Kelce is probably a 1st rounder, not a late 3rd

In ppr and TE premium- yes.

In standard, I would say a mid to late second rounder.

My first pass has him too low, I have him now in round 2.

 

[Ack88]

So the main changes I see from the OP and Dec 22 are

Cook moved ahead of Kamara to number two. This makes sense in standard scoring format.

Jacobs moved from pick 7 to pick 12. I don't think much has changed about the outlook for Jacobs besides him being injured recently. I agree he needed to move down because he was too high. The way that he and David Montgomery have been playing lately reminds me that I thought they were even prospects as far as talent level and that Montgomery may be the more talented RB. 

Aaron Jones. Your statement about the TD regression is incorrect. Jones scored 19 TD in 2019. He currently has 10 TD with two games left to go. If that isn't regression I don't know what is.

Joe Mixon. Several people have responded that they thought Mixon was ranked too high. Even huge Mixon fans. Yet you stick to your guns on this one. Its standard scoring. I would at least have Chubb ahead of him and ahead of Jacobs and Jones as well. Chubb is RB 5 right now in PPG.

Diggs is likely too low. He is producing at a similar level as Hopkins and he is younger. You did move him up from 32 to 20 though.

CEH has dropped from pick 18 to 25 which seems appropriate. A Andy Reid RB isn't so great in standard scoring.

Claypool was not the best WR after the draft. That is Justin Jefferson. Robinson likely not the best RB of 2020 either although he does have the numbers.

McClaurin is too low. This guy is a great WR. Glad he at least made the list but I would take him over Lockett for example.

Good stuff ack88 and thanks for posting.

Thanks for feedback. I enjoy these discussions.

Jacobs- I did move him down five slots, primarily because I now think I'll take a "safe" high end WR like Thomas, Hill, and Hopkins over him. A month ago, when I first posted my rankings, I wouldn't have said that. Jacobs is a fine player, a potential first rounder, but the lack of passing game involvement just caps his ceiling. 

Montgomery- he has feasted on subpar run defenses but the larger body of work, over the course of two seasons, cannot be undone due to 5-6 spiked weeks. I've moved him up, but he remains a likely 3rd rounder to me. I don't trust the team or surrounding talent enough to take him much higher. 

Mixon- I'm upfront in my bias- he's a 3 down back on a team that will get better AND has been a back end RB1 multiple times on BAD teams. I actually like all Bengals next year and will look to buy across formats. People, IMO, are too reactive to short term injuries and recency bias. 

Chubb- He may well move up for me. I like him as a player quite a bit. Because Hunt catches well and has a clearly delineated role that is locked in, don't think I can go higher just yet.

Jefferson- you are right on this one. Claypool, a month ago, looked elite. Instead, it is now JJ that is the cream of this crop. 

McLaurin- He is a great WR but until Smith and Haskins leave, I'm not leveraging too many assets and/or capital to land him. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Yep, I first want to say thanks for posting ack88.

What did stick out to me most was Claypool's ranking.

As you mentioned, Jefferson currently looks like the best WR in this class. Is Claypool even the 2nd best wide receiver in this class though? 

Note my league is 0.5 PPR. I know these rankings are are standard scoring so there would be difference in how many points someone has or how many points a player is averaging.

A lot of people are very high on Lamb who is averaging a similar number of ppg then Claypool. Additionally, Brandon Aiyuk in my league is averaging more ppg then Claypool with a worse QB situation and a higher draft pedigree. I think Aiyuk missed the first game of the season due to injury and two more from being on the Covid list. Finally, there is Tee Higgins who is not far behind Claypool as well.

I haven't broken down all the rookies for comparison yet. You make a good point about Aiyuk who has done well when healthy. Tee Higgins has also been good and I think he belongs in this conversation as well.

How they perform as rookies does not necessarily mean that is how they will perform for their careers, but its a good sign. Last time I was looking at rookie yardage thresholds for example for Jefferson, it compares to a list of HoF players and Kelvin Benjamin. 

I am still very high on Lamb regardless of the numbers. Ruggs and Juedy I am less confident about because they haven't really broken out yet.

Claypool has been great. Better than I expected and I have heard that Ben will play in 2021 something I was not sure about even a few weeks ago. So that helps a ton. I am still a bit nervous about that though as I think the end for Ben is getting near. This isn't a dynasty ranking though. We only care about next year here.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks for feedback. I enjoy these discussions.

Jacobs- I did move him down five slots, primarily because I now think I'll take a "safe" high end WR like Thomas, Hill, and Hopkins over him. A month ago, when I first posted my rankings, I wouldn't have said that. Jacobs is a fine player, a potential first rounder, but the lack of passing game involvement just caps his ceiling. 

Montgomery- he has feasted on subpar run defenses but the larger body of work, over the course of two seasons, cannot be undone due to 5-6 spiked weeks. I've moved him up, but he remains a likely 3rd rounder to me. I don't trust the team or surrounding talent enough to take him much higher. 

You make a good point that we need to look at the entirety of Montgomery's careers so far. Not just this season.

He has benefited from Tarik Cohen being injured and more involved in the passing game. The Bears might play well enough to save Nagys job (as a Vikings fan I hope so) and so maybe Cohen is back and Montgomery goes back to not being as useful. 

Mixon- I'm upfront in my bias- he's a 3 down back on a team that will get better AND has been a back end RB1 multiple times on BAD teams. I actually like all Bengals next year and will look to buy across formats. People, IMO, are too reactive to short term injuries and recency bias. 

What kind of numbers are you thinking earns Mixon where you have him ranked?

Chubb- He may well move up for me. I like him as a player quite a bit. Because Hunt catches well and has a clearly delineated role that is locked in, don't think I can go higher just yet.

Hunt does cap Chubbs upside. Good for the Browns not helpful for Chubb owners.

Jefferson- you are right on this one. Claypool, a month ago, looked elite. Instead, it is now JJ that is the cream of this crop. 

There are a lot of good rookie WR from this class. Only a few can make this list.

McLaurin- He is a great WR but until Smith and Haskins leave, I'm not leveraging too many assets and/or capital to land him. 

He is performing at a high level with not very good QB play. He isn't as good in standard scoring as PPR though. In PPR he is only 2 points behind AJ Brown where as in standard scoring Brown is 10th and McClaurin is 18th. Pretty big difference there. The TD actually matter in this format.

 

[socrates]

Trying to read the early tea leaves for next year. Standard scoring. Think keeper format, so a hybrid between redraft and true dynasty. My own process leads to a bias towards more short term players, rather than dynasty forward thinking. Rookies not yet included. Inevitably, they will be added. 

Notes: RB is again at a premium. Reliability falls off a cliff quickly, thus the position will be overdrafted. WR is super deep. Huge cluster of very solid options. I'll again try and build with RB and buy WR in bulk later. Plenty of value to be had there. TE remains a two man show. I've got 4 QB in my top 50: Mahomes, Wilson, Murray, and Allen. 

WR is so deep that D Moore, Evans, ARob, Higgins, and Kupp are all off the early list. Lamar Jackson is also out, but that may change. The Rams and Bills backfields could produce a league winner, but the carries need to be more concentrated. Somebody will land Moss or Akers (my bets to win the lion's share), eventually. Those guys may move up. This is only a rough first pass, as much on instinct as analysis. Looking forward to conversation.....

Outstanding work!  Thanks!

I will try to include some more specific comments later, as time allows, but this is an excellent list!

 

[Ack88]

I haven't broken down all the rookies for comparison yet. You make a good point about Aiyuk who has done well when healthy. Tee Higgins has also been good and I think he belongs in this conversation as well.

How they perform as rookies does not necessarily mean that is how they will perform for their careers, but its a good sign. Last time I was looking at rookie yardage thresholds for example for Jefferson, it compares to a list of HoF players and Kelvin Benjamin. 

I am still very high on Lamb regardless of the numbers. Ruggs and Juedy I am less confident about because they haven't really broken out yet.

Claypool has been great. Better than I expected and I have heard that Ben will play in 2021 something I was not sure about even a few weeks ago. So that helps a ton. I am still a bit nervous about that though as I think the end for Ben is getting near. This isn't a dynasty ranking though. We only care about next year here.

I think this underscores just how deep the WRs are and why you will see inferior RBs drafted head scratching high- most folks that do the research will see that you can go well past the top 50 players and find quality pass catchers.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I want Kelce on all my teams again next season. He was like a cheat code. In ppr his vbd was right behind the top RBs. I wouldn’t hesitate to take him right behind those top couple guys. There are so many good WRs. 

 

[Ack88]

I want Kelce on all my teams again next season. He was like a cheat code. In ppr his vbd was right behind the top RBs. I wouldn’t hesitate to take him right behind those top couple guys. There are so many good WRs. 

How high would you take him? Top 10?

 

[travdogg]

Great list. Nitpicking, but I have a few guys a little higher.

Nick Chubb is ahead of all of the jacobs, mixon, Sanders tier. Just trust him, and his offense more. Could argue him over Barkley too, but I don't want to argue him, until we know more about his recovery.

I think kelce and kittle are too low. It's possible I just value weekly TE advantages higher, but I'd have kelce on par with any WR. He's a 1st rounder to me. Kittle should be about where kelce is. I'm not sure it matters who his qb is. 

Terry mclaurin is a 2/3 turn guy for me. Washington will be better at qb next season, and he's proven himself a lot with awful qb play. Could be a diggs level wr.

Chris Godwin has had a multitude of injury issues, but still looks like the same guy who dominated in 2019. I'd take him over guys like claypool, or lockett.

Courtland Sutton was looking like a potential stud before tearing his ACL. Assuming he hasn't had any setbacks, I think he's a top-50 guy, in the Cooper/thielen range. 

Lastly, I think Deshaun Watson is a top-50 guy. Could argue him as high as QB2. He's been a stud since o'brien left, and should have Fuller back next year.

 

[fruity pebbles]

How high would you take him? Top 10?

Yes. After those top 4 RBs he’d be in play for me in ppr. I’d take Adams and Hill over him but he’d be right there in the next tier. So in that 7-10 range. I know a lot wouldn’t take a tight end that high cause it throws off the rest of the draft but if you’ve had him on your team, you understand. Others are hoping for 8-10 points a week from the position and you’re throwing up 20 week in week out. 

 

[travdogg]

Yes. After those top 4 RBs he’d be in play for me in ppr. I’d take Adams and Hill over him but he’d be right there in the next tier. So in that 7-10 range. I know a lot wouldn’t take a tight end that high cause it throws off the rest of the draft but if you’ve had him on your team, you understand. Others are hoping for 8-10 points a week from the position and you’re throwing up 20 week in week out. 

I agree with this. I think sometimes people tend to look their drafts like, "I got a top-10 qb, rb, 2 wrs, and a te. Draft went well." But the difference between kelce to say a 7-10 te like engram is bigger than the drop-off from say Hopkins to diontae johnson or something like that.

If we redrafted this season from scratch, where would kelce go? Top-3? Top-5? Only knock I can see is being over 30. Offense is going nowhere and role is unlikely to change.

 

[Ack88]

Yes. After those top 4 RBs he’d be in play for me in ppr. I’d take Adams and Hill over him but he’d be right there in the next tier. So in that 7-10 range. I know a lot wouldn’t take a tight end that high cause it throws off the rest of the draft but if you’ve had him on your team, you understand. Others are hoping for 8-10 points a week from the position and you’re throwing up 20 week in week out. 

I can't argue with that. My own lens is standard league scoring so the ppr dynamic really doesn't cross my mind. Even in standard, taking him somewhere at the 1-2 turn seems likely for many next year.

 

[Ack88]

Great list. Nitpicking, but I have a few guys a little higher.

Nick Chubb is ahead of all of the jacobs, mixon, Sanders tier. Just trust him, and his offense more. Could argue him over Barkley too, but I don't want to argue him, until we know more about his recovery.

I think kelce and kittle are too low. It's possible I just value weekly TE advantages higher, but I'd have kelce on par with any WR. He's a 1st rounder to me. Kittle should be about where kelce is. I'm not sure it matters who his qb is. 

Terry mclaurin is a 2/3 turn guy for me. Washington will be better at qb next season, and he's proven himself a lot with awful qb play. Could be a diggs level wr.

Chris Godwin has had a multitude of injury issues, but still looks like the same guy who dominated in 2019. I'd take him over guys like claypool, or lockett.

Courtland Sutton was looking like a potential stud before tearing his ACL. Assuming he hasn't had any setbacks, I think he's a top-50 guy, in the Cooper/thielen range. 

Lastly, I think Deshaun Watson is a top-50 guy. Could argue him as high as QB2. He's been a stud since o'brien left, and should have Fuller back next year.

Nitpicking is exactly why I like to start these conversations. 

I'm learned from this process that I'm much lower than consensus on McLaurin. The WFT may have the worst QB situation in the entire NFL. He's a good player but not someone I see as a legit WR1 in fantasy. Sure, if they improve next year, he could be a back end WR2, but I'm not feeling it the way others are. 

Godwin is tough to rank right now. A lot of dynasty folks have him as a top 10 WR. I like him, but don't love him right now. (I did trade for him this year). Really thought the fit with Brady would be better but Evans has proved to dominate the TDs and AB/Gronk also have to be fed. The Tampa WR situation next year for me would be one where I'd be happy taking Godwin, Evans, or AB after the first two were drafted; feels like the best value here. Wondering if Godwin leaves via FA- will a team like the Jets spend big?

Denver is a hard pass for me right now in the top 50. Really very little to like there. Gordon is a decent RB2 and Jeudy has flashed. Fangio offers little as an offensive head coach and Drew Lock is a bottom third QB who may not even start next year.

Watson could legitimately me a top 50 guy. I can't argue that. He's a great player that has been let down by management.

Thanks for the feedback. Love the discussion.

 

[Pipes]

Here's my thoughts...

Huge Packer fan but Aaron Jones is likely too high as he's most certainly gone due to the Packers cap situation.  I think Zeke and Michael Thomas are a bit too high as well.  I'd put Davante at 5 and Kelce at 6.  Like Hopkins, Metcalf and Tyrek above Thomas as well. 

I'd have Ridley a bit higher and Julio outside of the top 50, I just think his body is breaking down on him.  I'd have Cam Akers on this list as well.  I realize he's only had a couple of good games but I like his upside far more than Conner and Drake.  Those are 2 guys I'm staying away from next year. 

Oh and Allen Robinson deserves to be on the list.  He's put up very good numbers on a horrific passing team (Though Tribusky has looked decent these past couple of weeks) and he's a potential free agent who's proven he can put up numbers on bad passing teams imagine him in a legit passing attack.

Overall great list thank you for putting together.

 

[Ack88]

Here's my thoughts...

Huge Packer fan but Aaron Jones is likely too high as he's most certainly gone due to the Packers cap situation.  I think Zeke and Michael Thomas are a bit too high as well.  I'd put Davante at 5 and Kelce at 6.  Like Hopkins, Metcalf and Tyrek above Thomas as well. 

I'd have Ridley a bit higher and Julio outside of the top 50, I just think his body is breaking down on him.  I'd have Cam Akers on this list as well.  I realize he's only had a couple of good games but I like his upside far more than Conner and Drake.  Those are 2 guys I'm staying away from next year. 

Oh and Allen Robinson deserves to be on the list.  He's put up very good numbers on a horrific passing team (Though Tribusky has looked decent these past couple of weeks) and he's a potential free agent who's proven he can put up numbers on bad passing teams imagine him in a legit passing attack.

Overall great list thank you for putting together.

Thanks. Do most close followers of GB feel like it is certain Jones leaves?

 

[Ack88]

Here's my thoughts...

Huge Packer fan but Aaron Jones is likely too high as he's most certainly gone due to the Packers cap situation.  I think Zeke and Michael Thomas are a bit too high as well.  I'd put Davante at 5 and Kelce at 6.  Like Hopkins, Metcalf and Tyrek above Thomas as well. 

I'd have Ridley a bit higher and Julio outside of the top 50, I just think his body is breaking down on him.  I'd have Cam Akers on this list as well.  I realize he's only had a couple of good games but I like his upside far more than Conner and Drake.  Those are 2 guys I'm staying away from next year. 

Oh and Allen Robinson deserves to be on the list.  He's put up very good numbers on a horrific passing team (Though Tribusky has looked decent these past couple of weeks) and he's a potential free agent who's proven he can put up numbers on bad passing teams imagine him in a legit passing attack.

Overall great list thank you for putting together.

I think Arob will crack the top 50 in my next iteration. He’s been really good.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I'm just not a fan of Jacobs. Seems really average to me but I guess he doesn't have much competition and the team is too crappy to bring much in.

Theilen that high is the one player I'll completely disagree with. Jefferson passed him and lapped him, he'll be 32, already fading a fair amount yardage wise and tds were the main thing propping him up this year. Wouldn't touch him in the top 50.

 

[travdogg]

I'm just not a fan of Jacobs. Seems really average to me but I guess he doesn't have much competition and the team is too crappy to bring much in.

Theilen that high is the one player I'll completely disagree with. Jefferson passed him and lapped him, he'll be 32, already fading a fair amount yardage wise and tds were the main thing propping him up this year. Wouldn't touch him in the top 50.

Counterpoint on Thielen, he faced #1 coverage all year, as defenses adjust to Jefferson as the #1, I expect Thielen to have many more big plays, and Jefferson to have fewer. Thielen's rapport with Cousins won't go away, no reason to think he won't continue to be the 1st option in the redzone.

I think Thielen is in the right spot, and Jefferson is actually too high. I'd probably prefer Thielen in round 4 than Jefferson in round 2.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Counterpoint on Thielen, he faced #1 coverage all year, as defenses adjust to Jefferson as the #1, I expect Thielen to have many more big plays, and Jefferson to have fewer. Thielen's rapport with Cousins won't go away, no reason to think he won't continue to be the 1st option in the redzone.

I think Thielen is in the right spot, and Jefferson is actually too high. I'd probably prefer Thielen in round 4 than Jefferson in round 2.

Defenses have been giving Jefferson more attention for a while. On pace for a bit over 900 yards and last year prorated to about the same.

 

[Biabreakable]

Theilen that high is the one player I'll completely disagree with. Jefferson passed him and lapped him, he'll be 32, already fading a fair amount yardage wise and tds were the main thing propping him up this year. Wouldn't touch him in the top 50.

Adam Thielen will turn 31 years old in August of 2021.

Thielen has one less game played this season than Jefferson (sat out Covid protocol). He has 7.3 targets per game Jefferson 7.5 per game. I wouldn't describe this as Jefferson lapping him at all. Its pretty even. Jefferson has better yards per target than Thielen but at 8.4 ypt it isn't bad for Theilen or any WR at all. Its just not great like Jeffersons 11.2 

 

[Ack88]

I'm just not a fan of Jacobs. Seems really average to me but I guess he doesn't have much competition and the team is too crappy to bring much in.

Theilen that high is the one player I'll completely disagree with. Jefferson passed him and lapped him, he'll be 32, already fading a fair amount yardage wise and tds were the main thing propping him up this year. Wouldn't touch him in the top 50.

I think we have a pretty clear picture of Jacobs- a back end RB1 that will have trouble moving any higher due to a lack of passing game involvement, which is too bad because the skill set is there. LV is also uneven in how they play so there tends to be times where Jacobs seems to disappear. There’s nothing wrong with Jacobs, he’s a really solid player that is squarely within the top 15 selections next year, just not a top 7 player that we had hoped for.