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2019 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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1 minute ago, Long Ball Larry said:

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

With Henderson you also have to consider that if Gurley goes out, some out-of-nowhere add like 2018 CJ Anderson could be the guy.

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39 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

 It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that. 

Gotcha. I think I see what you're saying. Should something happen to Cook it's clear Mattison is the back. Gurley will be in-and-out (athritis is pain management, not injury) so Henderson will see points regardless, just in a timeshare with Brown and the severity of the injury that keeps Gurley out is less likely to be debilitating like Cook's.

Dig. 

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3 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

This is my feeling and is why I have Henderson in 2 leagues, BUT I do wonder if Henderson is less likely than Mattison to be a true bellcow because I think that if Gurley goes out then more of a timeshare with Brown is likely as opposed to MIN where Mattison could be the guy.  Plus Gurley's condition being chronic means that there is sort of a week-to-week feeling of the whole thing, whereas Mattison will be clear when to start and when to not.  It's like Mattison has a 15% chance of being relevant, but relevancy for him means like a 90% chance of RB1.  Whereas Henderson has a 40% chance of being relevant, but only a 65% of RB1.  

Or something like that.  Henderson has a higher median outcome but Mattison has the higher ceiling, if we are talking about real lotto, that's Mattison.

Agreed.

At this point you are banking on the unpredictability of injury.  For me I consider what if both Cook and Gurley were out and which backup would I prefer in that situation?  For me that's Mattison.

Although if you are looking for a one week bye fill in at RB...well both should get opportunities this week but I like Henderson vs Cinci in London.  If the Rams roll like they should McVay will spell Gurley early and often and there is a decent chance he doesn't even see the field in the fourth quarter.  That Cinci D is absolutely terrible against the run and it has been pretty consistent.  Washington hasn't been very good vs the run either but the NE game was responsible for a large chunk of their season long points against.

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14 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Really different situations, so hard for me to rank them.

If you are looking for a guy who can deliver steady points, that would be Guice -- once healthy that, is. His floor might be low because the Skins look terrible offensively, but seems to me he has a chance for anywhere from 50-70% of the carries once he's back.

Snell has value in the here and now -- but once Jaylen Samuels is back over the next game or two, I think Snell is mostly relegated to the bench and only has value if Connor or Samuels go out again. And given their health history, there is a chance of that.

Armstead would be a season saver and pure lotto gold but doesn't have value now or through the last half of the season, and is wholly dependent on a Fournette injury.

Such different situations, so I would say if you are looking for a guy to contribute now, Snell. A guy you can hold but will need to potentially contribute as a flex later, Guice. And a guy you can afford to hold on to an not play at all unless/until he hits as a pure lotto ticket, Armstead.

 

Three guys I am trying to rank are Guice, Samuels, and Hunt. I will have a need for a flex contributor starting ~Week 10/11. All three of these backs, if healthy, will see some carries. All three have a path to get a large share of carries if the starter falters or they simply flat out outperform them. So by comparison standards, I think this group is more apples-to-apples.

How would you rank them if you were looking for a potential flex contributor with upside?

I like Guice’s talent the best but his team is so bad that I feel at best he will be a floor play which can still be valuable. 

If Conner went down I think Samuels and Snell would split the work. I would feel a lot better about the situation if Ben wasn’t hurt this season. 

Hunt to me is the best mix of talent and situation is Chubb went down. I’d put him first among these 3. 

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After losing K. Johnson I'm stacking lotto tickets and watching others.

I'm keeping my WR corp dense (K. Alllen, T. Lockett, C. Davis only) in order to load up on these guys.

Current Lottos on roster: D. Henderson, A. Mattison, R. Armstead.

Watch List: G. Edwards, J. Samuel, R. Bonnofon, J. Wilkins, T. Pollard, D. Guice.

A lot of Guice talk here, but after watching AP last night, damn...that guy can still run. Not sure Guice emerges anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

After losing K. Johnson I'm stacking lotto tickets and watching others.

I'm keeping my WR corp dense (K. Alllen, T. Lockett, C. Davis only) in order to load up on these guys.

Current Lottos on roster: D. Henderson, A. Mattison, R. Armstead.

Watch List: G. Edwards, J. Samuel, R. Bonnofon, J. Wilkins, T. Pollard, D. Guice.

A lot of Guice talk here, but after watching AP last night, damn...that guy can still run. Not sure Guice emerges anytime soon.

I think Pollard would be my number 1 out of that watch list.  You've gotta assume he will be a clear-cut number 1 back there.

I know very little about Bonnafon, but from a strict upside play, I feel like he might be the next best.  CMac seems like he could go down at any time just based on his massive usage, and it sounds like Bonnafon would be the starter (if anyone has a different feel on that, then I am happy to be corrected).

Guice or Edwards next, but I think that those offenses are a lot harder to predict from usage standpoint.

Then Wilkins and Samuel.  I definitely like Wilkins, but Hines would got plenty of play and it seems to me like he is getting a fair amount of RZ work (without looking at the numbers).  Samuels, I'm just not totally sold on as a full-time back and Pgh offense seems a bit risky right now.

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21 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I think Pollard would be my number 1 out of that watch list.  You've gotta assume he will be a clear-cut number 1 back there.

I know very little about Bonnafon, but from a strict upside play, I feel like he might be the next best.  CMac seems like he could go down at any time just based on his massive usage, and it sounds like Bonnafon would be the starter (if anyone has a different feel on that, then I am happy to be corrected).

Guice or Edwards next, but I think that those offenses are a lot harder to predict from usage standpoint.

Then Wilkins and Samuel.  I definitely like Wilkins, but Hines would got plenty of play and it seems to me like he is getting a fair amount of RZ work (without looking at the numbers).  Samuels, I'm just not totally sold on as a full-time back and Pgh offense seems a bit risky right now.

:goodposting:

I think you nailed it here.

I would add that I would have Mattison in a tier above all of these, and Armstead in the same tier as Pollard and Bonnafon.  I guess Henderson in that tier as well, but he's harder to peg IMO... uncertainty around Gurley, also uncertainty around Brown, could they bring someone else in (like CJA), will McVay continue ignoring the run game, etc.

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Not much chatter on this guy:

Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons

My thinking is, Ito Smith is out........Atlanta is tanking this year, let's see what we've got in him........and Freeman is somewhat "brittle".

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59 minutes ago, robb said:

Not much chatter on this guy:

Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons

My thinking is, Ito Smith is out........Atlanta is tanking this year, let's see what we've got in him........and Freeman is somewhat "brittle".

If you're thinking that way, might as well get a look at Quadree Ollison as well.  He looked good in preseason.

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1 hour ago, robb said:

Not much chatter on this guy:

Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons

My thinking is, Ito Smith is out........Atlanta is tanking this year, let's see what we've got in him........and Freeman is somewhat "brittle".

Can Brian Hill catch the ball?  Because the only thing keeping Freeman's season from being an complete disaster is his 27/209/3 in receiving.  Rushing, it's been a trainwreck -- games of 19, 22, 28, 30, 19 yards, and 0 TDs all year.

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Struggling to find a keeper for next year on current roster, who are your top names that could be snagged off waivers potentially or had at a reasonable trade value that have a good change to pop 2020 if not this year?

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15 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Struggling to find a keeper for next year on current roster, who are your top names that could be snagged off waivers potentially or had at a reasonable trade value that have a good change to pop 2020 if not this year?

Drake, Gio Bernard, and Crowell.

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Requesting opinions:

Do any of the following belong on the King Maker / Season Changer List?

  • Henderson LAR
  • D Thompson KCC
  • Armstead JAC
  • Brian Hill ATL
  • Bonnafon CAR
  • Pollard DAL

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And..........................any thoughts on T. Williams from Cincinnati? I thought I heard where he was activated this week. Long-shot, but if Gio gets traded by Tuesday or he leaves in free agency next year, could he step in?

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39 minutes ago, daylight said:

Requesting opinions:

Do any of the following belong on the King Maker / Season Changer List?

  • Henderson LAR
  • D Thompson KCC
  • Armstead JAC
  • Brian Hill ATL
  • Bonnafon CAR
  • Pollard DAL

Based on volume/competition, Armstead Bonnafon and Pollard are probably yeses.

The other three, I don't see it.  Maybe Henderson.

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1 hour ago, daylight said:

I am currently looking to have guys like Pollard, Gus, Armstead, Penny and Bonnafon. There's room there for a value surge given injury. Damien Williams might be in that group at this point too. 

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On 10/25/2019 at 10:01 AM, Long Ball Larry said:

I think Pollard would be my number 1 out of that watch list.  You've gotta assume he will be a clear-cut number 1 back there.

I know very little about Bonnafon, but from a strict upside play, I feel like he might be the next best.  CMac seems like he could go down at any time just based on his massive usage, and it sounds like Bonnafon would be the starter (if anyone has a different feel on that, then I am happy to be corrected).

Guice or Edwards next, but I think that those offenses are a lot harder to predict from usage standpoint.

Then Wilkins and Samuel.  I definitely like Wilkins, but Hines would got plenty of play and it seems to me like he is getting a fair amount of RZ work (without looking at the numbers).  Samuels, I'm just not totally sold on as a full-time back and Pgh offense seems a bit risky right now.

 

On 10/25/2019 at 10:26 AM, davearm said:

:goodposting:

I think you nailed it here.

I would add that I would have Mattison in a tier above all of these, and Armstead in the same tier as Pollard and Bonnafon.  I guess Henderson in that tier as well, but he's harder to peg IMO... uncertainty around Gurley, also uncertainty around Brown, could they bring someone else in (like CJA), will McVay continue ignoring the run game, etc.

 

On 10/25/2019 at 10:01 AM, Long Ball Larry said:

I think Pollard would be my number 1 out of that watch list.  You've gotta assume he will be a clear-cut number 1 back there.

I know very little about Bonnafon, but from a strict upside play, I feel like he might be the next best.  CMac seems like he could go down at any time just based on his massive usage, and it sounds like Bonnafon would be the starter (if anyone has a different feel on that, then I am happy to be corrected).

Guice or Edwards next, but I think that those offenses are a lot harder to predict from usage standpoint.

Then Wilkins and Samuel.  I definitely like Wilkins, but Hines would got plenty of play and it seems to me like he is getting a fair amount of RZ work (without looking at the numbers).  Samuels, I'm just not totally sold on as a full-time back and Pgh offense seems a bit risky right now.

 

On 10/26/2019 at 11:48 AM, daylight said:

Requesting opinions:

Do any of the following belong on the King Maker / Season Changer List?

  • Henderson LAR
  • D Thompson KCC
  • Armstead JAC
  • Brian Hill ATL
  • Bonnafon CAR
  • Pollard DAL

We covered most of these above.  

I have been a hill fan for a while, but don’t have a bead on his situation.  Darwin, meh, I kind of gave up on him after he didn’t get any run in his opportunity a few weeks back.  At this point, I’m not sure what situation kc could be in where he would get that much meaningful work.  Would require a lot of things to happen.

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This won't be popular, but...if Penny gets traded, Procise gains new life.

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Handcuff time

Rock Armstead or Mostert?

Bonnafon rostered by another owner(waiting him out)

 

I'll pick the other up after AP craps out.

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1 hour ago, Wrigley said:

Handcuff time

Rock Armstead or Mostert?

Bonnafon rostered by another owner(waiting him out)

 

I'll pick the other up after AP craps out.

I would rather have Mostert if it's for a bye week fill-in and would have rather had him as a lottery ticket if he weren't in a 3 headed monster backfield because he has been good when called upon by the 49ers.  Their backs have gotten hurt all year (Brieda injured again).  I don't know if I see Armstead being successful as an every down back if Fournette goes down.  Fournette seems to be healthy this year but you never know.  Touches are king in fantasy and Armstead has a better chance based on the current situation of getting more.

I think there are a lot of better potential lottery tickets (most discussed ad nauseam in this thread than both of those guys but, if you have room on your bench, go for it.  

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Is Justice Hill dead to us now?  I realize his usage has slipped to near nothingness, but he is still the dynamic guy we all saw in preseason.  I realize he needs an Ingram injury to sniff the field and still would have to contend with Gus, but is it really time to take him off the lottery list?

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13 minutes ago, wickster33 said:

Is Justice Hill dead to us now?  I realize his usage has slipped to near nothingness, but he is still the dynamic guy we all saw in preseason.  I realize he needs an Ingram injury to sniff the field and still would have to contend with Gus, but is it really time to take him off the lottery list?

I bailed in my short bench league.  Had a choice between Hill and K Hunt.

It seems like a lot of the points Ingram gets are inside the 5, and IMO that's not Hill's game.  I had visions of them using Hill in a Sproles type role, but I'm just not getting the vibe that will materialize in the near future.  Just too many hurdles for him to jump over for my tastes.  He'd be more attractive if Gus Edwards was out of the picture, but it's also disheartening that he's playing second fiddle to Gus Edwards.

At the end of the day, if I really wanted a piece of the BAL backfield I don't think it would take a great deal to pry Ingram away.

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4 hours ago, Statorama said:
4 hours ago, Statorama said:

It seems like a lot of the points Ingram gets are inside the 5, and IMO that's not Hill's game.  I had visions of them using Hill in a Sproles type role, but I'm just not getting the vibe that will materialize in the near future.  Just too many hurdles for him to jump over for my tastes.  He'd be more attractive if Gus Edwards was out of the picture, but it's also disheartening that he's playing second fiddle to Gus Edwards.

At the end of the day, if I really wanted a piece of the BAL backfield I don't think it would take a great deal to pry Ingram away.

Hill is definitely a player to keep in the periphery to see if his role increases but is not someone who is a must stash.

I own Ingram and he sits on my bench most weeks so I think you are spot on with your above analysis. 

 

 

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FWIW:

In Blooms podcasts this week, he mentioned a few names - RB's most likely not rostered (your mileage will vary) that could be King Makers:

  • Ryquell Armstead JAC
  • Reggie Bonnafon CAR
  • Pollard DAL
  • J Wilkins IND
  • Darrell Williams KCC

just sayin

Edited by daylight

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6 minutes ago, daylight said:

FWIW:

In Blooms podcasts this week, he mentioned a few names - RB's most likely not rostered (your mileage will vary) that could be King Makers:

  • Armstead JAC
  • Bonnefort CAR
  • Pollard DAL
  • J Wilkins IND
  • Darrell Williams KCC

just sayin

PS sorry about the spellings - I'm at work and typing quickly LOL

those all make sense as guys who would get the lion's share of carries if the starter goes out for the year (though Williams would have a bit more variability, I think).

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1 hour ago, Long Ball Larry said:

those all make sense as guys who would get the lion's share of carries if the starter goes out for the year (though Williams would have a bit more variability, I think).

IMO Williams needs two injuries and even then it will be a significant time share dividing maybe 18 carries  and 7 targets per game. 

That is assuming 1) they don't sign another back, they would and 2) Reid doesn't simply start passing the ball even more, he would.

Andy Reid simply refuses to utilize his backfield as anything other than an afterthought. In his mind he sees the backfield as something, at best, to "keep defenses honest."

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On 10/26/2019 at 11:48 AM, daylight said:

Requesting opinions:

Do any of the following belong on the King Maker / Season Changer List?

  • Henderson LAR
  • D Thompson KCC
  • Armstead JAC
  • Brian Hill ATL
  • Bonnafon CAR
  • Pollard DAL

Where’s Penny fit on this list?

Edited by Max55

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1 minute ago, Max55 said:

Where’s Penny fit on this list?

and where does Brian Hill Yeah fit in?

 

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9 hours ago, Max55 said:

Where’s Penny fit on this list?

On your bench or wire with the rest of them. 

They all belong at the top of your list (except Darwin as he needs multiple injuries and even then there will be competition and limited opportunities) AND they all belong at the bottom of the list because they all require at least one injury to be relevant. So grab as many as you cam, in whatever order you think the guy in front of them is likely to get hurt and, I guess hope for that guy to get hurt.

 

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11 hours ago, daylight said:

J Wilkins IND

Would Wilkins be the main ball carrier if Mack gets hurt or would it be a committee?  He is intriguing if he would be the main dude.  But nothing is worse than rostering a handcuff, the starter gets hurt, and then the handcuff starts getting only 10 touches.

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Based on this week's podcasts, recent comments and recent injuries, etc. I made updates in red to the King Maker list, etc...

For those new to this thread.

Edited by daylight

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Pertaining to Bonnafon and Armstead; 

They have had such little run are we even sure they would be the guy if CMac or Fournette went down? 

Edited by johnnyboy8102
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17 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Pertaining to Bonnafon and Armstead; 

They have had such little run are even sure they would be the guy if CMac or Fournette went down? 

Excellent Question - unfortunately I do not know the answer.  Reference:  The Ty Johnson thing last Sunday.

Any other opinions? @Stompin' Tom Connors@Long Ball Larry? @TZMarkie? @Ilov80s @JFS171? @Dr. Dan?

Edited by daylight

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1 hour ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Pertaining to Bonnafon and Armstead; 

They have had such little run are even sure they would be the guy if CMac or Fournette went down? 

I'm rostering both Bonnafon and Armstead.  Unfortunately, it is difficult to know what will happen until it happens.  Armstead was a fifth round pick.  He has been talked up by the coaches.  He has the body type to get a heavy load.  He played 21% of snaps last game.  Bonnafon has been talked up by the coaches.  He had that 59 yard touchdown.  He played 17% of snaps last game.  I think they are both good handcuffs but it also wouldn't surprise me if neither got more than 50% of snaps if CMC or Fournette went down.  Handcuffs are a gamble.  But aside from Pollard, Mattison, Hunt, or Samuels, they are as good of handcuffs as any.

Edited by Don Hutson

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Anyone have a recent trade value for Mattison? How different is the value to non-Cook owners? Redraft

Edited by ericttspikes

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55 minutes ago, daylight said:

Excellent Question - unfortunately I do not know the answer.  Reference:  The Ty Johnson thing last Sunday.

Any other opinions? @Stompin' Tom Connors@Long Ball Larry? @TZMarkie? @Ilov80s @JFS171? @Dr. Dan?

I don't know if it's possible to say with 100% certainty that Armstead or CinnaBonnafon (I'm not letting go of that) would be "the guy" and wouldn't see any share of carries. All we know is that these guys are the next guys up.

But here's what I *think* might happen at least to start:

Bonnafon will likely get the lion's share -- he's a bit of a gadget player, having been both a QB then a WR before settling into the RB slot for Louisville. He's has sound but not outstanding measurables (6'1 213, 4.53 40 time) but it's his versatility -- with his legs and his hands -- and his understanding of the game that gives him a leg up on the role, where he can slot into al the formations and plays they use CMC for (running and passing downs).

The Panthers only have Jordan Scarlett behind Bonnafon, who has a better pedigree (drafted vs UDFA), but Scarlett's game is more of a hammer than a finesse role. Guy is a weight room hero with fast steps but not tons of decisiveness or vision at the first level, and is a poor pass catcher with a penchant for drops.

If CMC is out, I think it becomes Bonnafon's show with Scarlett as a pure COP -- if the even need him for that. Bonnafon is taller and heavier so could even see more work in short yards/stripe work.

Jags area  little tougher to call, IMHO. In addition to Armstead they have Tyler Ervin and Devin Ozigbo. All three backs have similar heights (Armstead and Ozigbo are 5'11, Ervin is 5'10) but Armstead and Ozigbo are 220 while Ervin is ten pounds lighter and more lanky.

Armstead and Ozigbo are also similar in style (and similar to Fournette) in posessing punishing, downhill styles that seek collision. I beleive Ozigbo is better known for his pass-catching activity but both are similar high-motor, drvie-for-extra-yards guys that would replace Fournette's game well. Ervin's style is a little different -- not a bruiser, he is often bottled up by downhill plays and one-cut interior runs. I think he's purely a COP back for swings and screens that can get him the space he needs. 

So all that said, given lack of tons of tape and seeing what they have done in relief for the guys ahead of them, would prioritize Bonnafon over Armstead. Bonnafon has less competition for carries, where I could see Armstead and Ozigbo potentially sharing time a little more.

Just my guess.

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I think some of you guys may be looking for "the definitive pickup" when certain things happen. (injuries....etc) It just doesn't work like that. The only thing we can do is throw darts at the "better scenarios".

 

The fact is, none of us really know for sure , but we can only go on the few things we do know, and try and interpret the information we DO have , and see what is likely to happen.

 

Examine the teams and their tendencies, thats always a good start.     Henderson, Thompson and Brian Hill, even if they get carries, isn't it already pretty much a given they will either split carries, or not get a true bellcow type role? Thats what I see personally, but I haven't examined the Henderson scenario as I don't own a single RAM on any team..

The other 3 are extremely interesting.

TROY POLLARD -  He is getting very little work, other than the Miami game which the Cowboys were truly running away with it. I'm not sure, but I'm willing to bet Pollard got the majority of his work in the second half, when the game started getting out of hand.   The brass tax of this is, most everyone agrees he is not a special runner, but the expected workload in a good offense is whats appealing.  He is a must add. If you already own EZE and don't have him rostered as insurance, then you have no one else to blame if something happens to EZE. Be proactive now, not reactive after injury.

REGGIE BONNAFON - This guy has had almost zero work, barring one game. Week 5 for 5 carries 80yds. and a TD.  Uhh, compare that to his season totals.  He literally sprang a 59 yard run for a TD as the game was winding down in the 4th quarter.   Here is another case where he is getting almost no work.  Everyone reaches and says "If CMC gets hurt, this guy will be slotted in for all the work".  Not so fast.  Those bellcow roles are handed to the true elite backs, i.e. CMC.  If CMC does get injured , I think its safe to assume Bonnafon will get the majority of the work, but not as much as CMC does.  He will likely lead a committee , and get a decent sized workload.  He would be a strong play in weeks 13 WAS - 14 ATL .  It toughens up in weeks 15-16 of the fantasy playoffs. SEA, @ INDY.  Again a must add for CMC owners.

  RYQUELL ARMSTEAD - As of today, Fournette LEADS THE LEAGUES IN CARRIES .  Is Armstead going to be the guy if something happens?  I don't know for sure, but he has gotten a little work sprinkled in here and there, nothing much. But I seriously, SERIOUSLY  doubt the JAGS are going to completely change the offense if Fournette goes down.  I'd have to examine a few other things, but I'm going to guess one of the reasons Fournette is getting so many carries, is because of rookie Minshew at QB.   If Fournette goes down, then one would assume Armstead would get the majority of work. Again, I doubt they re-design the offense into a RB committee , so one would likely get the majority of the work. And, guess what........  Armstead is a similar big bruising back, like Fournette.   I would think Armstead wouldn't get quite the screens/receiving work, but I would think he gets the majority of the carries, and sign me up for that. It is almost certainly a very big workload in this case.

 

 I try and cuff my big workload backs, and I have had Armstead sitting on my bench in the league I own Fournette.  I have a smattering of Breida, Latavius Murray (in EVERY league I am in), Wayne Gallman, Justice Hill.

WAYNE GALLMAN - I think its important we start viewing this guy as a potential "king maker"   We all know the talent is not special, and sitting behind Saquon Barkley is not the place to be. But suppose something happens to Barkley, check out his schedule end of season. WEEK 14 PHILLY, WEEK 15 MIAMI, WEEK 16 WASHINGTON .   Talent is often trumped by situational opportunity and workload in our game.   Here is a scenario where we would clearly want to have this RB, not on talent, but schedule and opportunity combined. You should definitely own him where you have Barkley, and he should be slipped on the end of your bench in the event of a Barkley catastrophe.

 

JUSTICE HILL - I have been singing the praises of this guy from day 1.  (If you have been following what I said) But I have softened a bit. The majority of why, is it appears so much of the rushing is being done by Lamar Jackson, who has 3 rushing TDs and over 550 yards.    I think Justice Hill is elite, and has all the talent you can look for in a smaller back.  Unfortunately its going to take an injury to Mark Ingram, AND Gus Edwards may be in line for some work then too.  It would likely be more of a committee, so I am not so sure Justice Hill rises to the "king maker" some of us have been saying.....at least I'm not rostering him this way.  If Ingram goes down, we would definitely want to own Hill, I'm just not so sure as of now how much work he would get, until he shows his real talent anyway.

 

 TZM

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7 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

Anyone have a recent trade value for Mattison? How different is the value to non-Cook owners? Redraft

I just got him for Duke Johnson and two mid-2nds.  He’s being valued in the low 1st range even as a handcuff, and my squad is contending with Cook.

As to other handcuffs, it sure looked like Bonnafon was “next man up” when it came time to spell CMC.  I held him thru our trade deadline to keep him from the CMC owner.  Doubt I’d be as zealous hanging onto Ryquell.

Edited by Arodin
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1 hour ago, Arodin said:

As to other handcuffs, it sure looked like Bonnafon was “next man up” when it came time to spell CMC.  I held him thru our trade deadline to keep him from the CMC owner.  Doubt I’d be as zealous hanging onto Ryquell.

I believe Bonnafon is the one to own behind CMC as well.  But I don't think we should be so quick to slot him in as the next CMC if it ever happens.  I'd be more inclined to think something along the lines of about 65%-70% of what CMC is currently getting as far as workload.   (which is still damn valuable late season)

 

Armstead's appeal to me is strictly workload.  As I pointed out above, The Jags are handing off the ball to Fournette at a league leading level of carries.  Even if Armstead were to get 70% of that, it would be a season saver for Fournette owners.

 

As odd as this may sound, I view some of these guys more as "season savers", rather than true "king makers".  Although it may seem like I'm splitting hairs, I'm really not.  There is usually only 1 possibly 2 true "king makers" every season, that come from nowhere and put up top 5 numbers down the stretch for fortunate owners.

I think Bonnafon and Armstead are more "season savers" for their owners.

Think about it, if you own CMC and Fournette, having the ability to plug one of these guys in , in the event of injury may well save your season.  (Instead of wrecking your team, you have someone you can plug it that will make you "still competitive" at that position) Or so we think.

 

The other mystifying thing about Armstead, is Fournette hasn't exactly been the bastion of health in previous seasons.  Having someone there that may well help save your season (Armstead) seems like an automatic roster move for me, where I own Fournette.

 But then again, I never roster those B.S. WR5 types I see some guys clinging on to, or backup QBs.  I have all those slots designated for lottery ticket RBs.

 

 TZM

Edited by TZMarkie
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Not many talking about Kareem Hunt. Wouldn't he immediately be one of the top handcuffs out there? He comes back next week. 

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10 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Not many talking about Kareem Hunt. Wouldn't he immediately be one of the top handcuffs out there? He comes back next week. 

Thinking of dropping Penny tonight for Hunt.

I’m thinking Hunt carves out more of a role than Penny assuming all starters and cuffs are healthy. 

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6 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

WAYNE GALLMAN - I think its important we start viewing this guy as a potential "king maker"   We all know the talent is not special, and sitting behind Saquon Barkley is not the place to be. But suppose something happens to Barkley, check out his schedule end of season. WEEK 14 PHILLY, WEEK 15 MIAMI, WEEK 16 WASHINGTON .   Talent is often trumped by situational opportunity and workload in our game.   Here is a scenario where we would clearly want to have this RB, not on talent, but schedule and opportunity combined. You should definitely own him where you have Barkley, and he should be slipped on the end of your bench in the event of a Barkley catastrophe.

And we saw a preview of what Gallman's usage would be when Saquon was hurt.  He had 18 carries and 6 receptions.  Few handcuffs actually become undisputed lead dog when the starter goes down.  With the Giants developing a rookie quarterback and not in playoff contention, Gallman will be sure to keep his role due to his elite pass protections skills.

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Josh Adams just got added from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.  If Bell misses time, Adams could ascend to lead back at some point.

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Seems like a few people are mentioning Myles Gaskin as the guy who will benefit the most from the Walton suspension, rather than Ballage. 

Haven't seen any specifics on Gaskin - anyone have any insight?

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39 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Seems like a few people are mentioning Myles Gaskin as the guy who will benefit the most from the Walton suspension, rather than Ballage. 

Haven't seen any specifics on Gaskin - anyone have any insight?

I just grabbed Gaskin because of this post.  I'm easy.

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20 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I just grabbed Gaskin because of this post.  I'm easy.

Welp, I'm usually wrong, so you may be too easy. 

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1 hour ago, zamboni said:

Seems like a few people are mentioning Myles Gaskin as the guy who will benefit the most from the Walton suspension, rather than Ballage. 

Haven't seen any specifics on Gaskin - anyone have any insight?

Patrick Laird looked good in the preseason, their best performing RB, albeit vs 2nd and 3rd stringers. He's been good on ST. I'm not confident in Ballage, he has size and speed, but not lateral quickness. But the team will give Ballage a chance to prove himself.

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6 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Patrick Laird looked good in the preseason, their best performing RB, albeit vs 2nd and 3rd stringers. He's been good on ST. I'm not confident in Ballage, he has size and speed, but not lateral quickness. But the team will give Ballage a chance to prove himself.

Probably right, although didn't they give Ballage a chance to prove himself by making him the starter as the season started, only to be outplayed by Drake and then Walton?

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