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Zyphros

Survivor leagues 2019

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30 minutes ago, huthut said:

I have most of the year planned out so far, though I can guarantee things will change based on injuries and team re-evaluations:

  1. SEA
  2. BAL
  3. DAL
  4. LAC
  5. PHI vs NYJ -14
  6. NE vs NYG -14.5
  7. BUF vs MIA -13.5, alternate KC at DEN -8 to preserve BUF for week 9 vs WAS
  8. PIT vs MIA - 13.5, alternates: MIN vs WAS -13 or LAR vs CIN -11.5
  9. SF @ ARI? -6.5, tough one, no real favorable matchups, divisional away game is rough. BUF if KC in week 7
  10. IND vs MIA -13.5
  11. MIN vs DEN -9.5, alternate SF vs ARI -9 if I go with KC week 7, would probably go with MIN week 8 then
  12. CLE vs MIA -14, might go with CHI vs NYG -8 since it would be the last time to use CHI somewhat comfortably
  13. KC vs OAK -14, alternate CAR vs WAS -9, last time to use CAR, could essentially start an alternate pick cascade by going with KC week 7 instead
  14. GB vs WAS -13.5
  15. NYG vs MIA -10? Pretty scary playing NYG at this time, could go with BUF week 7 and CAR week 13 to hold KC vs DEN -13.5
  16. Who knows, bunch of close matchups, will re-evaluate later
  17. LAR vs ARI -13

Now that I have it all typed up, I bolded the direction I might take for weeks with multiple possible picks. Feels like week 9 is the sketchiest so far, if lots of people lose before that I might go with safer picks and worry about an ideal path to week 17 later. 

Nice writeup.

 

I have IND, CLE, KC, LAR also marked down.

I specifically saved DAL for week 9, it's a rough week but a ton of people have used DAL in week 3, so week 9 may be the Reckoning.  If you get by week 9, you can get start feeling alright.  SF is good call, I think.  

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18 minutes ago, massraider said:

I'm mystified that people are giving the Raiders this much respect.  

That Broncos win gets less impressive by the week, and this is their 3rd game on the road in a row, which is the rare kind of schedule anomaly you look for.  No one thinks they are better than the Bears, Tyrell Williams is probably not playing, and I am not sure I can tell you who their top two WRs will be this week.  Waller getting fed like Miami-era Jarvis Landry for the same reason:  No one else to throw to, and checkdown-prone QB.  

One trend in every game this year has been the Raiders ability to look solid early on, and fade  badly in the second half.  Outscored in 2nd half of every game.  Whether because of coaching, the young roster, or whatever the reason, I expect that trend to be magnified on the road for the 3rd straight game.  

 

 

Solid writeup, my only concern would be the London location. But Chicago should still win.

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On to Week 6

I'm taking the Patriots.

However, I'm trying to help someone that I help every week and we've already used the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers, & Eagles.  I can't find a team I like for them to pick that's left.

Maybe Chiefs.  Maybe Saints.

?

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On 10/2/2019 at 10:14 PM, Lehigh98 said:

Took PHI in week one and have used HOU, NE and LAC so going with KC this week.

:scared:

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Miami plays Washington this week.  There goes the plan of taking the team that plays either one. 

First thought just looking at the games, might go with Ravens (vs Bengals), Falcons (vs Cardinals), or Cowboys (vs Jets).

 

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On 10/2/2019 at 10:14 PM, Lehigh98 said:

Took PHI in week one and have used HOU, NE and LAC so going with KC this week.

Didn't see that one coming, good luck the rest of the way guys.

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On 10/5/2019 at 11:06 AM, huthut said:

I have most of the year planned out so far, though I can guarantee things will change based on injuries and team re-evaluations:

  1. SEA
  2. BAL
  3. DAL
  4. LAC
  5. PHI vs NYJ -14
  6. NE vs NYG -14.5
  7. BUF vs MIA -13.5, alternate KC at DEN -8 to preserve BUF for week 9 vs WAS
  8. PIT vs MIA - 13.5, alternates: MIN vs WAS -13 or LAR vs CIN -11.5
  9. SF @ ARI? -6.5, tough one, no real favorable matchups, divisional away game is rough. BUF if KC in week 7
  10. IND vs MIA -13.5
  11. MIN vs DEN -9.5, alternate SF vs ARI -9 if I go with KC week 7, would probably go with MIN week 8 then
  12. CLE vs MIA -14, might go with CHI vs NYG -8 since it would be the last time to use CHI somewhat comfortably
  13. KC vs OAK -14, alternate CAR vs WAS -9, last time to use CAR, could essentially start an alternate pick cascade by going with KC week 7 instead
  14. GB vs WAS -13.5
  15. NYG vs MIA -10? Pretty scary playing NYG at this time, could go with BUF week 7 and CAR week 13 to hold KC vs DEN -13.5
  16. Who knows, bunch of close matchups, will re-evaluate later
  17. LAR vs ARI -13

Now that I have it all typed up, I bolded the direction I might take for weeks with multiple possible picks. Feels like week 9 is the sketchiest so far, if lots of people lose before that I might go with safer picks and worry about an ideal path to week 17 later. 

Might end up switching SF and BUF at weeks 7/9, then I get SF @ WAS and BUF vs WAS. I feel like that makes week 9 a touch safer. 

Edited by huthut

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On 10/2/2019 at 7:27 AM, Leroy Hoard said:

Well the easy part of the road is over. Miami (losers by 20 to 49  the first four games), has the week off. 

Jets have not been quite as bad, but @ Philly looks like the play for me this week.

Gets even harder for me this week as all the big faves I already used up.

Not a big fan of those in the next tier, so I will hold my breath and take Washington in a game I hope no one has to watch.

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17 minutes ago, C-Bound said:

Think its time to blow the Pats.

Too easy to make a joke here.

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No one but NE makes sense here.  I could see Dallas or Baltimore or the Chargers as the ONLY other options, but I've used them all already.

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Week 6 sucks for me because I've used all the good options.  I think NE could lose here though, especially if Barkley and Engram play. 

It's Thursday, NEs offense has not been great lately, and if the Giants can move the ball a bit they might be in the game

I'm either going with Kansas City vs Houston or just taking Washington against Miami.  Nothing good here. Staying far, far away from the Rams 49ers game as well as Green Bay vs Detroit and Minnesota vs Eagles. 

 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Week 6 sucks for me because I've used all the good options.  I think NE could lose here though, especially if Barkley and Engram play. 

It's Thursday, NEs offense has not been great lately, and if the Giants can move the ball a bit they might be in the game

I'm either going with Kansas City vs Houston or just taking Washington against Miami.  Nothing good here. Staying far, far away from the Rams 49ers game as well as Green Bay vs Detroit and Minnesota vs Eagles. 

 

Agree with everything here except for the pats game. Barkley is out and those that have NE left almost have to use them as most other options are gone. I already used them vs. Miami.

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3 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Week 6 sucks for me because I've used all the good options.  I think NE could lose here though, especially if Barkley and Engram play. 

It's Thursday, NEs offense has not been great lately, and if the Giants can move the ball a bit they might be in the game

I'm either going with Kansas City vs Houston or just taking Washington against Miami.  Nothing good here. Staying far, far away from the Rams 49ers game as well as Green Bay vs Detroit and Minnesota vs Eagles. 

 

Weird take.  I see zero chance New England loses tomorrow.  The game is in New England, it's a short week for a road team to travel/prepare.  Also Engram has been ruled out, and Barkley has been extremely doubtful to suit up.

Houston can put up a ton of points and very well could beat a beat up KC team.

I actually think Miami might win that game too.

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1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Agree with everything here except for the pats game. Barkley is out and those that have NE left almost have to use them as most other options are gone. I already used them vs. Miami.

Totally agree. I agree that the Pats haven't been playing great, but the Giants are so banged up, and obviously have a rookie going against BB. We all know how that has fared in the past.

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On 10/6/2019 at 10:52 PM, Zyphros said:

Miami plays Washington this week.  There goes the plan of taking the team that plays either one. 

First thought just looking at the games, might go with Ravens (vs Bengals), Falcons (vs Cardinals), or Cowboys (vs Jets).

 

think i'm riding the Cowboys this week. I'm down to my last pick because the Bears suck :sadbanana:i would also def avoid that Falcons play

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So, as I was watching the first drive last night, I realized I didn't actually submit my pick of NE for this week yet... :wall:

Going to go with KC for one, and GB for my second one. Feeling far less confident in those picks than last night's gimme.

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Went with NE and surprised to see that out of the 20 left only 2 picked them (10 had them left).  Lets goooooooooooooooo upsets!

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If I had DAL or BAL left I probably would have gone with them, not sure if the 8 people in your league had those options or not. 

Edited by huthut

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14 hours ago, Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:

Survived with Washington...sheesh!

On to week 7

Same here.

Buffalo seems like a good play this week.

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So far still alive, I like BUF more this week in a bubble, but going with SF. 

Edited by huthut

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Jets killed so many.  Im down to top 6 now out of 30. 

Who is the play this week?  Seems most are playing Buffalo.  Coming off a bye vs Miami seems smart.

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On 10/9/2019 at 9:51 AM, kittenmittens said:

Week 6 sucks for me because I've used all the good options.  I think NE could lose here though, especially if Barkley and Engram play. 

It's Thursday, NEs offense has not been great lately, and if the Giants can move the ball a bit they might be in the game

I'm either going with Kansas City vs Houston or just taking Washington against Miami.  Nothing good here. Staying far, far away from the Rams 49ers game as well as Green Bay vs Detroit and Minnesota vs Eagles. 

 

This didn't age well.  Hopefully you picked Washington and barely hung on.

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I went Green Bay in all 3, I was torn between them and Seattle. Thought I made the right choice up until Seattle took the W. Now I’m over here sweating it! Let’s go packers!

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22 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

I went Green Bay in all 3, I was torn between them and Seattle. Thought I made the right choice up until Seattle took the W. Now I’m over here sweating it! Let’s go packers!

I normally try to avoid all Primetime games and teams coming off of byes, but felt this was the safest play with what I had left.  Didn't trust Wash or SF on the road.  Luckily, I had already used SD or that may have been my dagger last night.  Primetime could be a killer this week.  Let's go GB!

Edited by Bobcat10
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21 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

I went Green Bay in all 3, I was torn between them and Seattle. Thought I made the right choice up until Seattle took the W. Now I’m over here sweating it! Let’s go packers!

Those are some ballsy calls.  Don't get too fancy in survivor pools... were you just wanting to save the Pats?  Picking an underdog (seattle) in a survivor pool seems like suicide.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Those are some ballsy calls.  Don't get too fancy in survivor pools... were you just wanting to save the Pats?  Picking an underdog (seattle) in a survivor pool seems like suicide.

Used NE in week 2. I went anti Miami the first 4 weeks and took philly over the jets in week 5. 
 

wash/mia KC/HOU felt like it could go either way. Sea/cle I didn’t like on the road against an angry cle team. Nothing else felt like even thinking about. GB, even without Adams, felt like the safest game for me this week. 

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5 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

I normally try to avoid all Primetime games and teams coming off of byes,

Is this a thing?  Got any stats? 

Bills are loacked and loaded.  Line is 16.5 or something crazily similar.

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1 minute ago, jerseys finest said:

Used NE in week 2. I went anti Miami the first 4 weeks and took philly over the jets in week 5. 
 

wash/mia KC/HOU felt like it could go either way. Sea/cle I didn’t like on the road against an angry cle team. Nothing else felt like even thinking about. GB, even without Adams, felt like the safest game for me this week. 

Fair enough.  Ya I guess if you already used Dallas, Baltimore, and the Chargers as the "Anti-Miami" picks, then the Packers game was the game with the biggest spread of the week outside of Washington.  Was just surprised you said you almost took Seattle, as they were actually underdogs.

Hopefully GB can pull it off for you tonight.  Might be close.

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2 minutes ago, C-Bound said:

Is this a thing?  Got any stats? 

Bills are loacked and loaded.  Line is 16.5 or something crazily similar.

I think he meant "picking AGAINST teams coming off of byes"

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2 minutes ago, C-Bound said:

Is this a thing?  Got any stats? 

Bills are loacked and loaded.  Line is 16.5 or something crazily similar.

Re: bye weeks....I meant picking against the team that was on the bye.  If I survive tonight, I'm rolling Buffalo for sure next week.  

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Fair enough.  Ya I guess if you already used Dallas, Baltimore, and the Chargers as the "Anti-Miami" picks, then the Packers game was the game with the biggest spread of the week outside of Washington.  Was just surprised you said you almost took Seattle, as they were actually underdogs.

Hopefully GB can pull it off for you tonight.  Might be close.

Never considered Dallas this week, felt like a trap.  Try to stay with home favs.  

Seattle is an odd one too imo.  That game and the Wash game, while they both won, proved why those were scary picks.  I guess you need a few of those to survive though.

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37 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Fair enough.  Ya I guess if you already used Dallas, Baltimore, and the Chargers as the "Anti-Miami" picks, then the Packers game was the game with the biggest spread of the week outside of Washington.  Was just surprised you said you almost took Seattle, as they were actually underdogs.

Hopefully GB can pull it off for you tonight.  Might be close.

Yeah, Seattle was my “gut” pick. Didn’t trust it enough to chase it, but hindsight is 20/20. Felt  the same with GB and Det being a Primetime game, but not as much. Being down Adams worries me, but having a solid defense and run game + Aaron Rodgers is what had me hedge on the side of GB. Hope it was the right call. Thanks for the well wishes! I’m gonna need them

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10 hours ago, jerseys finest said:

Yeah, Seattle was my “gut” pick. Didn’t trust it enough to chase it, but hindsight is 20/20. Felt  the same with GB and Det being a Primetime game, but not as much. Being down Adams worries me, but having a solid defense and run game + Aaron Rodgers is what had me hedge on the side of GB. Hope it was the right call. Thanks for the well wishes! I’m gonna need them

Damn, man.

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53 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

Pretty sure you individually willed this to happen. 🤣

No sweat...no sweat at all...

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already locked buffalo in @ home vs. Miami in 2 of my 3. Down to the final 15 in the local one with a little over 100 entries and a 1k first prize. Also in the 25k free yahoo pool.  Odds are I use buffalo in the fanduel one as well. I don't like to submit that one too early though, once its locked in, theres no changing it. 

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debating between Buffalo and SF this week myself. Leaning Buffalo, but they also have WAS in week 9; which is why SF has me intrigued.

Down to the final ~300 entries out of over 1700.

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14 minutes ago, 4th&inches said:

debating between Buffalo and SF this week myself. Leaning Buffalo, but they also have WAS in week 9; which is why SF has me intrigued.

Down to the final ~300 entries out of over 1700.

MIA at BUF -17

or

SF -10 at WAS

 

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1 hour ago, Team Smokin' said:

MIA at BUF -17

or

SF -10 at WAS

 

Going buffalo this week at home and SF week 11 at home  vs ARI  most likely. I like some other team matchups ill have available between weeks 8 & 10(if I survive) where I wouldn't need to use Buff. Don't love SF schedule outside of this game and 2 games vs ARI as games for what should be a pure lock for this SF team.

The opposite of that is also doable. SF at WAS this week and Buff at Miami in week 11. This is where I'm torn. My gut it more confident with the teams I think will win when they are at home more than when they are away.

Niners riding high against a dumpster fire skins team, who just got their first win, and has a little momentum, and the niners may overlook them with a big matchup against the Panthers the following week, and Buff traveling to a hot Miami in November against a division rival with nothing to lose (except the #1 overall pick that is) These scenarios worry me for long shot, but possible upsets. 

Edited by jerseys finest
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Would hate to leave the dolphin haters bandwagon, but I could see a case for the Thursday game instead of the Monday game. Either way should be a fairly safe bet.

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1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Would hate to leave the dolphin haters bandwagon, but I could see a case for the Thursday game instead of the Monday game. Either way should be a fairly safe bet.

Agreed, but seeing this as the last spot, in their current incarnation, Pittsburgh is a no-brainer choice. MIN has some future use (@home vs DEN wk 11), so has me leaning in PIT direction. Plus, coming off the bye, they are 6-4 (0-3 last three years, but all tough matchups; NOS, @SEA, @BAL)

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40 minutes ago, Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:

Agreed, but seeing this as the last spot, in their current incarnation, Pittsburgh is a no-brainer choice. MIN has some future use (@home vs DEN wk 11), so has me leaning in PIT direction. Plus, coming off the bye, they are 6-4 (0-3 last three years, but all tough matchups; NOS, @SEA, @BAL)

True, Vikings are a better save.  As much as I preach against that,  it does serve as a good tiebreaker.

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Feeling a bit anxious about having PIT this week, now that they are down 14-0. Almost switched to the Rams or NO since you never get to week 17 anyway, but decided to stick with the plan. 

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