Week 7 BUY LOW & SELL HIGH thread (REDRAFT)

[Buck Bradcanon 1,287]

2 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Winston.  His footwork looked improved.  The first two interceptions were Godwin & Peyton Barbers fault.  The 3rd was on him, but the pocket collapsed he was trying to win the game with a few minutes left.  ThebBucs Oline did a good job and the run game will open things up.  TE's missed a few blocks that made the Oline appear worse.  Dotson and Cappa are still suspect imo.  San Fran D was pretty good.  Sherman can still play and they did a great job of pressuring.  Both these teams are underrated right now imo.

Thank you for this.  Winston my only QB in my main and I didn't get to see any of this game.

[Gottabesweet 923]

1 hour ago, InDitkaWeTrust said:

is Fournette a buy low now that Foles is out for an extended amount of time?

Possibly but I would think this hurts Fournette. More loaded fronts.

[Punxsutawney Phil 844]

12 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Thank you for this.  Winston my only QB in my main and I didn't get to see any of this game.

https://twitter.com/Supreme_gifs/status/1170804863178903552?s=19

[shadyridr 14,251]

20 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Thank you for this.  Winston my only QB in my main and I didn't get to see any of this game.

Dont watch. He looked awful. Just as bad as last year. No clue what Phil is talking about.

[Dismattle 211]

35 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Massive difference for those who are reading this thread for redraft advice vs those who are reading it for dynasty advice.  In redraft, IDGAFF if Ingram is 23, 33 or 43 as long as he's playing the way he did yesterday.

Yeah I dunno   I mean if you look at the link I posted the two backs are pretty close if not to say the same exact tier by some "expert" rankings   My point is I do not see the correlation of upgrading low to mid   I really just cared to point out the age of 30+ because its something that I feel every league should at least consider and/or be aware about

[Dismattle 211]

7 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Dont watch. He looked awful. Just as bad as last year. No clue what Phil is talking about.

You have to admit that it sure looks like Evans was sick tho  (two for 28yd's)  Definitely room for improvement 

[Maven25 65]

13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Buy:

Corey Davis

Kerryon Johnson

Tyreek Hill

Aaron Jones (I know I know... but his value is lower than it should be right now. I'd buy just to sell later for pick/s)

 

Sell:

Sammy Watkins

Michael Gallup

Any Baltimore player

Marlon Mack

Couple questions Dr. Dan.

1) Is this considering dynasty or redraft?  I know your thought on Aaron Jones for dynasty, which is why I get the added blurb about him.

2) How much does Tyreek's injury impact dynasty value over the long term?  SC dislocation seems pretty serious and hard recovery, any chance this injury could lead to a long term problem/early retirement?

[Punxsutawney Phil 844]

41 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Dont watch. He looked awful. Just as bad as last year. No clue what Phil is talking about.

https://youtu.be/Q2aMc5KLYL8

[chad in Indy 179]

13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Buy:

Corey Davis

Sell:

 

Marlon Mack

I would not be surprised to see Corey Davis on a lot of waivers this week.

Think you are missing the train on Mack.  The loss of Luck has been drastically overstated.  You can squarely put yesterday's loss on Vinatieri.  One missed XP and two missed chip shot FGs.  Brisset looked good against a slightly injured Chargers defense.  Mack/Brisset are playing behind what is probably a top 5 OL, if not higher.  Even if you take away Mack's long run, he still had +110 yds rushing.  I think a lot of people still value him as a mid RB2 though.  I think he will surpass the fantasy value of Fournett, Michel, K. Johnson, Henry quickly.  Is he going to have weekly outings of 30+ points  No, but he is the type of RB who's weekly floor will probably always be +75 yds rushing and 60% TD   He would be a target for me, but I live in Indy, so the homer value doesn't bode well.

13 hours ago, az_prof said:

I would sell Mack high.

See above

3 hours ago, Weebs210 said:

Lmao if you sell Lamar you will regret it.

Jury's still out on this and prob will be that way until Baltimore faces a decent defense.  Miami is going to be a team to stream against all year.  Whole team is a mess.

[neal cassady 183]

18 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Buy:

Corey Davis

Kerryon Johnson

Tyreek Hill

Aaron Jones (I know I know... but his value is lower than it should be right now. I'd buy just to sell later for pick/s)

 

Sell:

Sammy Watkins

Michael Gallup

Any Baltimore player

Marlon Mack

I think I can move Mack for Chubb in dynasty.  Chubb owner is Colts fan.  I thought Mack looked really good yesterday, but Chubb has to be the better player long term?  Am I wrong to think this?  Will Hunt be a factor at all?  Seems like a no brainer..

[Interseptopus 5,718]

4 minutes ago, neal cassady said:

I think I can move Mack for Chubb in dynasty.  Chubb owner is Colts fan.  I thought Mack looked really good yesterday, but Chubb has to be the better player long term?  Am I wrong to think this?  Will Hunt be a factor at all?  Seems like a no brainer..

absolutely yes

[Football Jones 1,322]

I'd try to "buy low" on Ty Johnson. I put it in quotes because he doesn't fit the typical parameters, but I don't think it's too big of a stretch to say TJ could get more touches to show what he can do (& that's all it takes sometimes).

More dynamic than Kerryon, TJ is also a pretty tough runner. 

Good buy cheap/stash/hold guy.

[Interseptopus 5,718]

5 hours ago, Maven25 said:

Couple questions Dr. Dan.

1) Is this considering dynasty or redraft?  I know your thought on Aaron Jones for dynasty, which is why I get the added blurb about him.

2) How much does Tyreek's injury impact dynasty value over the long term?  SC dislocation seems pretty serious and hard recovery, any chance this injury could lead to a long term problem/early retirement?

1. Dynasty. I wouldnt buy in redraft. 

2. Yes. I eluded to this in the Hill thread. Said I'd get grief for saying it. This is the ONLY boney attachment of the arm to the trunk. If it doesnt move you cant lift your arms well, and you sort of need that as a wr. These can be career enders. He seems to have dodged a bullet for now but there are potential long term concerns still. FWIW Danny Amendola had a similar injury in 2012 and hes come back ok. But there are many ways to separate that joint. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Dr. Dan

[FGITLOTR 235]

6 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

I'd try to "buy low" on Ty Johnson. I put it in quotes because he doesn't fit the typical parameters, but I don't think it's too big of a stretch to say TJ could get more touches to show what he can do (& that's all it takes sometimes).

More dynamic than Kerryon, TJ is also a pretty tough runner. 

Good buy cheap/stash/hold guy.

Are you kidding me??

[Football Jones 1,322]

Just now, FGITLOTR said:

Are you kidding me??

No, I'm not kidding.

[Football Jones 1,322]

LOL. I see the redraft moniker now. I had dynasty on my mind.

That said, monitoring TJ & the Lions backfield is a good idea.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Football Jones

[Football Jones 1,322]

in fact, I'd say it would be a very good idea.

[Gottabesweet 923]

Who we trying to sell and buy for week 3?

Joe Mixon is someone who comes to mind. Bengals blown out at home and he came in not at 100%.  Might be able to pry him away.

Anyone selling Ekeler?

[jmo87usc 397]

I'm looking to sell John Ross and buy OJ Howard in dynasty

[shadyridr 14,251]

Selling Michel

[Gottabesweet 923]

6 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Selling Michel

I can see that, luckily he scored and had a good game, but that type of game was meant for him and he could have done more. So should be able to net some favorable return.

 

[TimmyG 5]

Anyone gonna try to buy low on Kamara or Thomas assuming a multiple week absence from Drew? It’s kind of a bet on SP getting the ball in their hands.  I’m considering it. 

[TheWinz 2,155]

1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Who we trying to sell and buy for week 3?

Joe Mixon is someone who comes to mind. Bengals blown out at home and he came in not at 100%.  Might be able to pry him away.

Anyone selling Ekeler?

Not selling Ekeler - gotta ride him til the wheels fall off - the 41/15 touch split makes Ekeler a RB1 until proven otherwise

Waiting one more week to buy Mixon.  He faces BUF week 3.  Saquon's stat line may look good for week 2 (18/107/1, 5.9 YPC), but he got 55 of those yards in the first 2 minutes of the game, and his lone TD, on just 4 carries.  BUF held him in check for the last 58 minutes of the game, with a lowly 14 carries for 52 yards.  BUF also held Leveon to a measly 60 yards on 17 carries in week 1.  Mixon will be even cheaper after next week.

[Gottabesweet 923]

4 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Not selling Ekeler - gotta ride him til the wheels fall off - the 41/15 touch split makes Ekeler a RB1 until proven otherwise

Waiting one more week to buy Mixon.  He faces BUF week 3.  Saquon's stat line may look good for week 2 (18/107/1, 5.9 YPC), but he got 55 of those yards in the first 2 minutes of the game, and his lone TD, on just 4 carries.  BUF held him in check for the last 58 minutes of the game, with a lowly 14 carries for 52 yards.  BUF also held Leveon to a measly 60 yards on 17 carries in week 1.  Mixon will be even cheaper after next week.

Yeah, I'm just worried with every good game Gordon comes back and it becomes a time split but I hear you.

 

[cloppbeast 1,188]

Selling Jacobs in ppr.

[shadyridr 14,251]

2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Selling Jacobs in ppr.

Im buying Jacobs. What don't you like about him? Raiders look like a decent enough offense. They fell behind the best offense in football. It happens.

[papacapps 11]

11 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Yeah, I'm just worried with every good game Gordon comes back and it becomes a time split but I hear you.

 

This is my concern as well.  Part of me wants to believe Ekeler won't be punished if he's still performing at a top level...the other part thinks they might run Gordon into the ground if/when he returns to the team.  I guess the true answer depends on what you would receive in return should you try to trade Ekeler...

[cloppbeast 1,188]

3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Im buying Jacobs. What don't you like about him? Raiders look like a decent enough offense. They fell behind the best offense in football. It happens.

Well in ppr he's bad because he doesn't catch the ball. I kind of expected him to be more involved in the passing game.

[fightingillini 633]

54 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Not selling Ekeler - gotta ride him til the wheels fall off - the 41/15 touch split makes Ekeler a RB1 until proven otherwise

I would sell Ekeler if the price is right.  He's not going to get you to the promised land....Gordon will be back and it's going to be an RBBC.

 

 

[Gottabesweet 923]

Thinking about shopping Lamar or Ryan to the Brees/Big Ben owners in hopes to get a free starter.  TE upgrade or WR upgrade.

[ratbast 145]

I’m stacked with NFC North players. I’ve been trying to diversify. Because 3 great and one solid D. 

Cook might be a sell high but not going there. Other than that there’s only ARob and Adams to sell “evenish”. 

But I would worry about buying low on QBs and WRs and TEs in this division.

Sell: A Jones. For the above reasons I’d sell him maybe?

Buy: Bears RBs if you can get them real low. 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by ratbast

[shadyridr 14,251]

3 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Selling Michel

So here's my thoughts on Michel. Last year the Pats had no choice but to run. Gronk was a shell of himself, Gordon was only there a few weeks, Edelman suspended 4 games. They were a running team with a great oline and a phenomenal blocking TE in Gronk. Now, full seasons of Edelman, Brown, and maybe Gordon, no more Gronk, worse oline, and the usage of Burkhead means this is a passing team again. They are using more 2RB, 3WR formations than they ever did before. This all spells doom for Michel. He is not getting any passes thrown his way and the opposing teams know when he's in there they are going to run. He still might end up with 10 TDs on the year but 1000-10 with no receptions is his upside. Hes basically Blount. If you can get value from him now after the MIA game I'd jump all over it.

In my league, there is a guy who lost both Conner and Singletary and asked me about Michel. Im targeting Kittle (who may be a buy low in his own right).

[rockaction 18,835]

3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

So here's my thoughts on Michel. Last year the Pats had no choice but to run. Gronk was a shell of himself, Gordon was only there a few weeks, Edelman suspended 4 games. They were a running team with a great oline and a phenomenal blocking TE in Gronk. Now, full seasons of Edelman, Brown, and maybe Gordon, no more Gronk, worse oline, and the usage of Burkhead means this is a passing team again. They are using more 2RB, 3WR formations than they ever did before. This all spells doom for Michel. He is not getting any passes thrown his way and the opposing teams know when he's in there they are going to run. He still might end up with 10 TDs on the year but 1000-10 with no receptions is his upside. Hes basically Blount. If you can get value from him now after the MIA game I'd jump all over it.

In my league, there is a guy who lost both Conner and Singletary and asked me about Michel. Im targeting Kittle (who may be a buy low in his own right).

I can't disagree with any of what you said about Michel. In my main league, I have him Elliott, Michel, Jacobs, Singletary, and McCoy. I also have Big Ben. I'm a quick M*A*S*H unit right now at QB and RB, and lousy at WR.

Enough of my team: All signs during postseason and even the beginning of this year pointed and point to tons of touches for Michel, and he's averaging 18 touches/game. So I'm now hesitant to part with him after this week, as he actually averaged over 4 YPC and scored a touch. That said, I know I should sell high and while the getting is good, because with the signing of A. Brown, the whole team just changed its focus.

NEP settles in so late in the year it's impossible to predict. 

[Gottabesweet 923]

7 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

So here's my thoughts on Michel. Last year the Pats had no choice but to run. Gronk was a shell of himself, Gordon was only there a few weeks, Edelman suspended 4 games. They were a running team with a great oline and a phenomenal blocking TE in Gronk. Now, full seasons of Edelman, Brown, and maybe Gordon, no more Gronk, worse oline, and the usage of Burkhead means this is a passing team again. They are using more 2RB, 3WR formations than they ever did before. This all spells doom for Michel. He is not getting any passes thrown his way and the opposing teams know when he's in there they are going to run. He still might end up with 10 TDs on the year but 1000-10 with no receptions is his upside. Hes basically Blount. If you can get value from him now after the MIA game I'd jump all over it.

In my league, there is a guy who lost both Conner and Singletary and asked me about Michel. Im targeting Kittle (who may be a buy low in his own right).

I agree - well said on all counts.

[rockaction 18,835]

2 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Im buying Jacobs. What don't you like about him? Raiders look like a decent enough offense. They fell behind the best offense in football. It happens.

I have Jacobs in my main league, rostered in a fun/main one. I believe, and he's looked every bit the part. What's to hate about eighty+ and ninety-five+ yards rushing per week, plus a catch or two? Nothing if he's your RB2.  

[Gottabesweet 923]

Calvin Ridley thoughts?  A couple good games in a row.  Might be able to package him with someone to get a stud elsewhere. Ryan spreads it around Ridley will have his great games but probably some stinkers when it's the Julio, Freeman, Hooper and even Sanu involvement.

I was thinking of offering Mixon and Ridley for an OBJ type as long as OBJ doesn't have a giant game tonight.

 

[fightingillini 633]

Just now, Gottabesweet said:

Calvin Ridley thoughts?  A couple good games in a row.  Might be able to package him with someone to get a stud elsewhere. Ryan spreads it around Ridley will have his great games but probably some stinkers when it's the Julio, Freeman, Hooper and even Sanu involvement.

I was thinking of offering Mixon and Ridley for an OBJ type as long as OBJ doesn't have a giant game tonight.

 

I would just hold Ridley.  He's good.  He is going to get EVERY team's #2 corner.  Sure, his ceiling is limited due to Julio, but the ATL pie is pretty big, Freeman is a shell of his former self, and I wouldn't worry about Sanu or Hooper much at all.  Yes, he will have some stinkers, but all WRs have them (even the elite WRs).

In fact, ATL having Sanu and Hooper and Freeman, along with Julio, pretty much insures Ridley is getting single coverage.

Now if you can sell Ridley plus a piece and get an elite player in return, sure, cash out.  But I think Ridley is a player that you won't get full value in a trade. 

 

[shadyridr 14,251]

18 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Calvin Ridley thoughts?  A couple good games in a row.  Might be able to package him with someone to get a stud elsewhere. Ryan spreads it around Ridley will have his great games but probably some stinkers when it's the Julio, Freeman, Hooper and even Sanu involvement.

I was thinking of offering Mixon and Ridley for an OBJ type as long as OBJ doesn't have a giant game tonight.

 

Ridley is a stud in his own right. 10 TDs as a rookie and 2 already this year. He's only going to get better. I think that you would be giving up way too much in that deal.

[tangfoot 1,693]

5 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

I would just hold Ridley.  He's good.  He is going to get EVERY team's #2 corner.  Sure, his ceiling is limited due to Julio, but the ATL pie is pretty big, Freeman is a shell of his former self, and I wouldn't worry about Sanu or Hooper much at all.  Yes, he will have some stinkers, but all WRs have them (even the elite WRs).

I know this isn't the point of your post, but Hooper is pretty quietly the #3 TE in receptions and #8 TE in yardage through two games.  If he gets a TD here or there, he will be consistently a top-5 TE this season.

[Gottabesweet 923]

3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Ridley is a stud in his own right. 10 TDs as a rookie and 2 already this year. He's only going to get better. I think that you would be giving up way too much in that deal.

 

1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

I know this isn't the point of your post, but Hooper is pretty quietly the #3 TE in receptions and #8 TE in yardage through two games.  If he gets a TD here or there, he will be consistently a top-5 TE this season.

 

8 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

I would just hold Ridley.  He's good.  He is going to get EVERY team's #2 corner.  Sure, his ceiling is limited due to Julio, but the ATL pie is pretty big, Freeman is a shell of his former self, and I wouldn't worry about Sanu or Hooper much at all.  Yes, he will have some stinkers, but all WRs have them (even the elite WRs).

In fact, ATL having Sanu and Hooper and Freeman, along with Julio, pretty much insures Ridley is getting single coverage.

Now if you can sell Ridley plus a piece and get an elite player in return, sure, cash out.  But I think Ridley is a player that you won't get full value in a trade. 

 

I hear you and am glad he's on my bench for depth/upside (shallow 12 team PPR league) with 4 bench spots.  We start 1RB,1WR,1 TE, 2 Flex - It's all about sending 2 guys out and acquiring a stud.  He may be one and I probably should hold.

Cook,Chubb,Hopkins, Hilton, Engam is my normal lineup with Ridley, Mixon, Corey Davis, Gallup on the bench.

Ridley would be far more valuable for a start 3 WR league.

Sometimes I just try to make moves to make moves  always trying to package 2 for 1.

[Gottabesweet 923]

11 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

I would just hold Ridley.  He's good.  He is going to get EVERY team's #2 corner.  Sure, his ceiling is limited due to Julio, but the ATL pie is pretty big, Freeman is a shell of his former self, and I wouldn't worry about Sanu or Hooper much at all.  Yes, he will have some stinkers, but all WRs have them (even the elite WRs).

In fact, ATL having Sanu and Hooper and Freeman, along with Julio, pretty much insures Ridley is getting single coverage.

Now if you can sell Ridley plus a piece and get an elite player in return, sure, cash out.  But I think Ridley is a player that you won't get full value in a trade. 

 

The top 200 moving forward isn't out yet and with Michael Thomas and JJSS quarterback's out awhile or the season there's not many.  Wouldn't consider Mike Evans this elite player anymore with Godwin targets.

It would have to be going after a OBJ, Davante Adams type WR.  

[fightingillini 633]

8 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I know this isn't the point of your post, but Hooper is pretty quietly the #3 TE in receptions and #8 TE in yardage through two games.  If he gets a TD here or there, he will be consistently a top-5 TE this season.

I hear you and that is a fair point.  I was trying to say that Hooper isn't going to eat into Ridley's production that much.  The ATL pie is pretty big.  Hooper being around TE5 (if he stays there) will affect Sanu and the RBs the most.

[oswizzle 207]

whats Lamar Jackson trade value at right now... WR1 or RB1 ?

Quote

 

 

[Gottabesweet 923]

A few owners have been hitting me up for Ekeler today.  Anyone sell this week?  We are a PPR league start 2rb (CMC, Fournette) and 2 flex spots (Ekeler has been crushing it there) but I have nothing behind that.

 

I've been kicking around sending this in text to a buddy, but not sure I want to give up the best player in the deal.  Ekeler/Chark/Justin Jackson for Ridley/Andrews/Miles Sanders - Ekeler's floor seems safer at flex, but unknown if he can handle the workload and MG3 coming back? 

[shadyridr 14,251]

Just bought low on Kittle... Michel and Scary Terry for Kittle

[Gottabesweet 923]

4 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Just bought low on Kittle... Michel and Scary Terry for Kittle

Well done.

[3nOut 166]

Thanking about selling Cooks. A lot of mouths to feed there, but I'm not sure what I can get in return.

[rockaction 18,835]

6 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Just bought low on Kittle... Michel and Scary Terry for Kittle

Looks to be a good trade if you wanted out from under Michel. 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four 500]

Everyone in my leagues over value their own guys. They all want to give garbage for gold. Boring.

[Cowboysfan8 6,828]

On 9/16/2019 at 3:08 PM, oswizzle said:

whats Lamar Jackson trade value at right now... WR1 or RB1 ?

 

I’m not giving a wr1 (or 2) or a rb1 (or 2) for any QB not named Mahomes