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Gottabesweet

Week 7 BUY LOW & SELL HIGH thread (REDRAFT)

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On 9/16/2019 at 1:25 PM, shadyridr said:

So here's my thoughts on Michel. Last year the Pats had no choice but to run. Gronk was a shell of himself, Gordon was only there a few weeks, Edelman suspended 4 games. They were a running team with a great oline and a phenomenal blocking TE in Gronk. Now, full seasons of Edelman, Brown, and maybe Gordon, no more Gronk, worse oline, and the usage of Burkhead means this is a passing team again. They are using more 2RB, 3WR formations than they ever did before. This all spells doom for Michel. He is not getting any passes thrown his way and the opposing teams know when he's in there they are going to run. He still might end up with 10 TDs on the year but 1000-10 with no receptions is his upside. Hes basically Blount. If you can get value from him now after the MIA game I'd jump all over it.

In my league, there is a guy who lost both Conner and Singletary and asked me about Michel. Im targeting Kittle (who may be a buy low in his own right).

This can be explained even simpler:. The Patriots are ALWAYS about matchups and right now there matchup that favors them is 10 personnel.. that means no TE and 4 wrs which hurts the running game and  leverages their incredible we corps.  They will ride that until the wheels fall off. 

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1 hour ago, 3nOut said:

Thanking about selling Cooks. A lot of mouths to feed there, but I'm not sure what I can get in return.

Last week I sold Cooks and Samuel for Mixon and Gallup. If that helps. 

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Last week I sold Cooks and Samuel for Mixon and Gallup. If that helps. 

Pretty great deal for you. I doubt you'd get close to that in most leagues.

 

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18 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

I traded Cooks and got Allen Robinson.. I was surprised when I asked, considering Arob is a #1 WR, even though it's in a not so great pass offense.

I'd much rather have Cooks

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8 hours ago, shadyridr said:

I'd much rather have Cooks

Cooks was drafted much higher than Robinson in my league, but I would rather have Robinson.

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11 hours ago, tricky92 said:

Cooks was drafted much higher than Robinson in my league, but I would rather have Robinson.

As a recent owner of both, I'd say the idea of Cooks is better than the reality. Week to week you almost never feel confident starting him, no matter what his full season numbers end up being. At least Robinson is the #1 target in his offense, as bad as that offense is right now. Cooks living off name recognition right now as far as dynasty value goes - if I had him, I'd be trying to sell. 

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3 minutes ago, RushHour said:

As a recent owner of both, I'd say the idea of Cooks is better than the reality. Week to week you almost never feel confident starting him, no matter what his full season numbers end up being. At least Robinson is the #1 target in his offense, as bad as that offense is right now. Cooks living off name recognition right now as far as dynasty value goes - if I had him, I'd be trying to sell. 

Wait, SayWhat?  When comparing Brandin Cooks to Allen Robinson, you're describing Brandin Cooks and NOT ALLEN ROBINSON(?!) as the WR where the "idea is better than the reality, where week to you never feel confident starting him no matter his season ending numbers, and that he is the one living off name recognition?"  What kind of bizzaro world are we living in? 

Let's lay it out there...Brandin Cooks has averaged 77-1150-7 for the past four years while not missing a single game, and he puts up those numbers on about 7 targets per game.  Allen Robinson's last four years include:

  • 2015: 16 games, 80-1400-14 (hooray for the one year he was ffball starter worthy on 160 targets!)
  • 2016: 16 games, 73-883-6 :X
  • 2017: 1 games, 1-17-0 (at least he wasn't killing your lineup this year)
  • 2018: 13 games, 55-754-4 :X

So which of these wideouts is living off of name recognition?  Robinson is easily one of the top three most overrated dynasty WR's right now.  Until I see Cooks not drop a 75-1200-7 season and/or Robinson actually produces, these two aren't even in the same conversation for me.  And I don't view Cooks as anywhere near elite level.  He's just as rock solid WR2, which is way more than can be said about Allen Robinson.   

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20 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

He's just as rock solid WR2, which is way more than can be said about Allen Robinson.   

:sadbanana:

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Yikes.  Short bench league. The Big Ben owner panicked. Traded Barkley and Dalton for Edelman, Brieda, Prescott.  

After they were “thinking about” my Chubb/Hilton offer then accepted that.  

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BUY LOW:  Hollywood Brown / Christian Kirk

If Hollywood is being ranked in the 20s/30s where I've seen on numerous sites, he's a buy low. And I'd do it before this week's game. I think Lamar and Andrews will help keep heavy coverage off him. 

There's no reason that both Kirk/Fitz (if healthy) won't both see 130+ targets apiece . Again, if he's being ranked in the late 20s or 30s.....it's a buy low.

-----------

And finally, it is just so baffling to me to keep seeing 3 Rams WR in the Top 20 in WEEKLY rankings. Just stop it already. 

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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1 hour ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

BUY LOW:  Hollywood Brown / Christian Kirk

If Hollywood is being ranked in the 20s/30s where I've seen on numerous sites, he's a buy low. And I'd do it before this week's game. I think Lamar and Andrews will help keep heavy coverage off him. 

There's no reason that both Kirk/Fitz (if healthy) won't both see 130+ targets apiece . Again, if he's being ranked in the late 20s or 30s.....it's a buy low.

-----------

And finally, it is just so baffling to me to keep seeing 3 Rams WR in the Top 20 in WEEKLY rankings. Just stop it already. 

All great points. I've been envying Fitz owners the past few weeks. He has four catches of over forty yards, almost already the most in his career. He's got his quarterback besides Warner and Palmer, finally.

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I’m gonna buy Mariota on the cheap just so I can be the one to drop him from my roster!

-disgruntled CDavis owner who wanted nothing more than a decent WR3 with upside

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Mariota put in a real serviceable game in one of my leagues last night. Dropped an average burger when all was said and done.

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The CIN OL is a complete mess right now, and Mixon owners are gonna get real ornery after he lays his 3rd egg of the season on Sunday.

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He's really struggled in the first two weeks, but I'd say that Devonta Freeman may be a "Buy Low" at this point.   

The Falcons' offensive line hasn't done Devonta any favors, but Freeman has been involved in the passing game which helps.  This should be a get-right game against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in points allowed to opposing RBs.   And Indy won't have All-Pro LB Darius Leonard in Week 3 either.   

I'd add David Montgomery as well.  He gets a Redskins defense that has allowed an average of 168 rushing yards per game.   Matt Nagy finally got his head out of his a$$ and gave Montgomery the rock.   The Bears' defense should keep positive game scripts in play for Monty.  

MIke Evans should do damage against a porous Giant secondary.   

 

 

 

Edited by dcgangstas
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3 minutes ago, dcgangstas said:

He's really struggled in the first two weeks, but I'd say that Devonta Freeman may be a "Buy Low" at this point.   

The Falcons' offensive line hasn't done Devonta any favors, but Freeman has been involved in the passing game which helps.  This should be a get-right game against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in points allowed to opposing RBs.   And Indy won't have All-Pro LB Darius Leonard in Week 3 either.   

I'd add David Montgomery as well.  He gets a Redskins defense that has allowed an average of 168 rushing yards per game.  

MIke Evans should do damage against a porous Giant secondary.   

 

 

 

Disagree- I think Freeman ROS is a bad gambit. The timeshare between him and Ito is real, and neither is getting the touches in the right scenarios to merit buying at this time. Maybe I'll eat my words, but I don't see Freeman putting up a full season of starting RB numbers. 

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I took this injury as a chance to buy low on Alshon Jeffery in redraft. I’m not sure which of us got the better end of the deal, but I need a spot on my short bench for more running back depth so was almost thinking about dropping Gallup yesterday because the only info I can find on his injury length is 2-4 weeks and I can’t afford 4, but this trade allowed me to make something of him.

Gallup and DK Metcalf for Jeffery.

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I’m done with Freeman.  Dude’s damaged goods for fantasy.

I’m targeting Fournette.  Getting nearly all the touches in Jax.  Owners disgusted after this last game.

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

I’m done with Freeman.  Dude’s damaged goods for fantasy.

I’m targeting Fournette.  Getting nearly all the touches in Jax.  Owners disgusted after this last game.

Fournette has looked every bit as bad as Freeman. They've probably been the 2 worst RB's in the NFL so far, on a per touch basis. 

I think Chris Carson could be had for a similar price as Fournette, and is a better player, in a better offense. Fewer touches, but does a lot more with them, and higher TD upside.

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2 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

I took this injury as a chance to buy low on Alshon Jeffery in redraft. I’m not sure which of us got the better end of the deal, but I need a spot on my short bench for more running back depth so was almost thinking about dropping Gallup yesterday because the only info I can find on his injury length is 2-4 weeks and I can’t afford 4, but this trade allowed me to make something of him.

Gallup and DK Metcalf for Jeffery.

I think anything you can get for Alshon is a sell high. You absolutely robbed him. As an owner in one redraft league I swap him straight up for either of those guys I think.

Do not drink and draft or things like Alshon happen.

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3 minutes ago, FreshiZ said:

I think anything you can get for Alshon is a sell high. You absolutely robbed him. As an owner in one redraft league I swap him straight up for either of those guys I think.

Do not drink and draft or things like Alshon happen.

Well I was on the receiving end of that Alshon deal. So maybe I was the one that got robbed. After watching him game 1 I like his involvement when healthy, and this move allowed me to grab a running back off the wire for depth.

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2 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Well I was on the receiving end of that Alshon deal. So maybe I was the one that got robbed. After watching him game 1 I like his involvement when healthy, and this move allowed me to grab a running back off the wire for depth.

Yeah you got robbed. I like either of Gallup OR Metcalf better than Jeffrey ROS.  Both . . . 

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2 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Well I was on the receiving end of that Alshon deal. So maybe I was the one that got robbed. After watching him game 1 I like his involvement when healthy, and this move allowed me to grab a running back off the wire for depth.

If you believe in him go for it. I'm guessing final points for him and DK will be similar giving a slight edge to DK. DeSean does actually help Alshon I think though so he needs him back.

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21 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Well I was on the receiving end of that Alshon deal. So maybe I was the one that got robbed. After watching him game 1 I like his involvement when healthy, and this move allowed me to grab a running back off the wire for depth.

If he's healthy, he'll be very much involved in a high powered offense. Hopefully Jackson stays healthy as well since I think he positively affects Alshon.

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I’d sell Pats RBs and consider selling all Pats offense. The OL wasn’t in good shape prior to all the injuries. Throw in new TEs and a banged up Devlin and we have a recipe for disaster. All the talk about how good they are, can they protect Brady? Or can they run? I’m not sure. I’m a Pats fan. 

Edited by ratbast
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1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

Yeah you got robbed. I like either of Gallup OR Metcalf better than Jeffrey ROS.  Both . . . 

If Gallup is out 4 weeks he’d likely have to get dropped off my short bench league anyways. 

After watching game 1, I view Jeffrey as a guy with a lot of potential in that offense this season. 

But then again game two he’s out before he starts.

If healthy I like him a bit better than both Metcalf. I probably like Gallup better talent wise and target wise but he’s out for a bit and I can’t afford it.

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I'm thinking John Ross is a sell high. I think he's finally waking up and realizing his talent, but Dalton has always been a 1 WR kind of guy and AJ will be back before too much longer.

Having said that, what are people getting for him (or perceive his value as)?

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Redraft Evan Engram thoughts?  Barkley out, rookie QB looked good, Shepard back, Tate coming.... Sell high?

 

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Just now, Gottabesweet said:

Redraft Evan Engram thoughts?  Barkley out, rookie QB looked good, Shepard back, Tate coming.... Sell high?

 

What are you selling him for though?  He's almost certainly your TE1. 

You're probably not getting Kelce or Kittle--I don't know that I want Ertz over him.  Danny Jones seems to favor him as well. 

If you've got TE depth and can get an elite WR or a good RB for him--sure. 

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3 minutes ago, jm192 said:

What are you selling him for though?  He's almost certainly your TE1. 

You're probably not getting Kelce or Kittle--I don't know that I want Ertz over him.  Danny Jones seems to favor him as well. 

If you've got TE depth and can get an elite WR or a good RB for him--sure. 

I'd probably go after Kelce and add to the package but I'm not sure what?  Ridley?

I just worry with Barkley out awhile the play action pass and middle of the field wont open up as they won't load the box up.  Tate also coming back.

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4 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I'd probably go after Kelce and add to the package but I'm not sure what?  Ridley?

I just worry with Barkley out awhile the play action pass and middle of the field wont open up as they won't load the box up.  Tate also coming back.

Engram and Ridley isn't going to be enough to get Kelce.  At least I would turn down that trade.

Sure, Barkley is going out for a month.  But the NYG are going to be behind in most games, so Engram should get 7-10 targets every week. 

I would hold.

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27 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Redraft Evan Engram thoughts?  Barkley out, rookie QB looked good, Shepard back, Tate coming.... Sell high?

 

I see no reason to sell high. Frankly, other than Kelce, I'm not sure there is a TE I'd rather have. He's firmly in tier 2 with Ertz and Kittle for me. I think its more likely that Tate takes from Shepard than Engram.

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I put this in the Trubisky thread.  Thought you guys might want to consider this:

This might be a complete nothingburger BC we all know Trubisky has looked gawd awful first 2 weeks of the season, BUUUUT...

if you’re in a league that allows you to grab him rt now off the FA wore in advance of tonight’s game and you have a player you planned on dropping for this week’s waiver claims, AND, if you’re like me without a stud qb (I have mayfield and dalton) you might want to drop that player and speculatively add Trubisky now in advance of tonight’s game.  

Yes he has sucked ####.  However, he did play against the packers and the broncos, and thus far they have shown to be very good pass defenses.  

If you look at his schedule from today on, at least on paper it looks like it gets VERY juicy.  Not a whole lot of intimidating matchups outside of the Rams.  Even minn in week 5 doesn’t look that daunting.  Xavier Rhodes might lock down a rob but the other WRs might feast.  

I keep thinking back to last year where he showed flashes and had some monster performances that made me think he could be a great qb.  Is it really possible that he will suck this bad all year?

I dropped Darwin Thompson for him today (was going to drop Darwin for either gallman or Jamaal Williams anyway as it’s clear he is the rb4 in KC)  and in doing so am placing a small bet that Trubisky rights the ship tonight and lights up the skins in an easier matchup.  

If he does that he will end up being a ww darling going into week 4 considering the QB woes that so many owners are having rt now.  

If he doesn’t and he continues to suck, I’ll just drop him for my we claim this week.  

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11 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I put this in the Trubisky thread.  Thought you guys might want to consider this:

This might be a complete nothingburger BC we all know Trubisky has looked gawd awful first 2 weeks of the season, BUUUUT...

if you’re in a league that allows you to grab him rt now off the FA wore in advance of tonight’s game and you have a player you planned on dropping for this week’s waiver claims, AND, if you’re like me without a stud qb (I have mayfield and dalton) you might want to drop that player and speculatively add Trubisky now in advance of tonight’s game.  

Yes he has sucked ####.  However, he did play against the packers and the broncos, and thus far they have shown to be very good pass defenses.  

If you look at his schedule from today on, at least on paper it looks like it gets VERY juicy.  Not a whole lot of intimidating matchups outside of the Rams.  Even minn in week 5 doesn’t look that daunting.  Xavier Rhodes might lock down a rob but the other WRs might feast.  

I keep thinking back to last year where he showed flashes and had some monster performances that made me think he could be a great qb.  Is it really possible that he will suck this bad all year?

I dropped Darwin Thompson for him today (was going to drop Darwin for either gallman or Jamaal Williams anyway as it’s clear he is the rb4 in KC)  and in doing so am placing a small bet that Trubisky rights the ship tonight and lights up the skins in an easier matchup.  

If he does that he will end up being a ww darling going into week 4 considering the QB woes that so many owners are having rt now.  

If he doesn’t and he continues to suck, I’ll just drop him for my we claim this week.  

Cohen owner here, makes me feel better he can still fill bye weeks that will be coming up. If MT is running the offense better then the skill position guys will also see an uptick. 

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17 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I put this in the Trubisky thread.  Thought you guys might want to consider this:

This might be a complete nothingburger BC we all know Trubisky has looked gawd awful first 2 weeks of the season, BUUUUT...

if you’re in a league that allows you to grab him rt now off the FA wore in advance of tonight’s game and you have a player you planned on dropping for this week’s waiver claims, AND, if you’re like me without a stud qb (I have mayfield and dalton) you might want to drop that player and speculatively add Trubisky now in advance of tonight’s game.  

Yes he has sucked ####.  However, he did play against the packers and the broncos, and thus far they have shown to be very good pass defenses.  

If you look at his schedule from today on, at least on paper it looks like it gets VERY juicy.  Not a whole lot of intimidating matchups outside of the Rams.  Even minn in week 5 doesn’t look that daunting.  Xavier Rhodes might lock down a rob but the other WRs might feast.  

I keep thinking back to last year where he showed flashes and had some monster performances that made me think he could be a great qb.  Is it really possible that he will suck this bad all year?

I dropped Darwin Thompson for him today (was going to drop Darwin for either gallman or Jamaal Williams anyway as it’s clear he is the rb4 in KC)  and in doing so am placing a small bet that Trubisky rights the ship tonight and lights up the skins in an easier matchup.  

If he does that he will end up being a ww darling going into week 4 considering the QB woes that so many owners are having rt now.  

If he doesn’t and he continues to suck, I’ll just drop him for my we claim this week.  

The Bears want to run the ball and play defense.  Their D is good.  They traded up for Montgomery since CHI thought he could be a workhorse.

Even if the sched gets favorable, I don't see Trubisky having a ton of upside.  He hasn't run the ball much during the 1st 2 games, and his running ability accounts for a good chunk of his fantasy value.  Trubisky is nothing more than a spot starter against defenses who have below average pass rush, since Trubisky is horrible at throwing on the run when flushed out of the pocket.

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12 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

The Bears want to run the ball and play defense.  Their D is good.  They traded up for Montgomery since CHI thought he could be a workhorse.

Even if the sched gets favorable, I don't see Trubisky having a ton of upside.  He hasn't run the ball much during the 1st 2 games, and his running ability accounts for a good chunk of his fantasy value.  Trubisky is nothing more than a spot starter against defenses who have below average pass rush, since Trubisky is horrible at throwing on the run when flushed out of the pocket.

You mIght be right.  I won’t argue that.  And I’m no Trubisky defender.  

However, the flip side is that the bears brass want desperately to be right about Trubisky.  After all.  They traded yo to get him at #2 and passed on Mahomes to get him.  That will haunt them forever if they are wrong about Mitch.  

I see them giving him chances to prove he is more than just a game manager.  If for no other reason, then BC of their egos.  What he does with those chances....anyone’s guess.  

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1 hour ago, rickyg said:

I dropped Darwin Thompson for him today (was going to drop Darwin for either gallman or Jamaal Williams anyway as it’s clear he is the rb4 in KC)  and in doing so am placing a small bet that Trubisky rights the ship tonight and lights up the skins in an easier matchup. 

This is not actionable advice for most fantasy owners because players are locked for the week as soon as their game kicks off.  You would have to be rostering a free agent (Antonio Brown?) or someone on the Bears or Redskins in most league management software.  Yahoo, of course, is the exception to this.

Edited by tangfoot

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On 9/20/2019 at 1:10 PM, dcgangstas said:

MIke Evans should do damage against a porous Giant secondary.  

Wrong.

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43 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This is not actionable advice for most fantasy owners because players are locked for the week as soon as their game kicks off.  You would have to be rostering a free agent (Antonio Brown?) or someone on the Bears or Redskins in most league management software.  Yahoo, of course, is the exception to this.

yes...I am in a yahoo league.  I didn't start darwin so it let's me drop him  

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2 minutes ago, Dave Stauff said:

Darren Waller a sell high or hold expecting more of the same???

I don't see why his targets will ever drop that much.  He's clearly the option 1A or 1B with Tyrell in the OAK offense.  OAK should have a lot of good game scripts, where Carr needs to sling it in the 2nd half when OAK is trailing.  He may not score many TDs, but Waller looks to have a great high floor.

I would hold, unless I had a top 4 TE.  I would sell Waller high if I owned Kelce, but I would consider moving Kittle, Ertz, or Engram and keeping Waller, since those TEs will likely fetch more return in a trade.

 

 

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How do people feel about Kupp?  I have someone in my league that is pretty interested.  I might be able to get D-hop, Melvin Gordon, and Golden Tate out of it but would need to send David Johnson as well.....

My initial thoughts are that Kupp is a locked in top 12 WR moving forward and clearly the #1 option on the Rams....  not really a sell high.

 

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31 minutes ago, ahartig said:

How do people feel about Kupp?  I have someone in my league that is pretty interested.  I might be able to get D-hop, Melvin Gordon, and Golden Tate out of it but would need to send David Johnson as well.....

My initial thoughts are that Kupp is a locked in top 12 WR moving forward and clearly the #1 option on the Rams....  not really a sell high.

 

Not so sure.  That passing game is so hard to predict.  It could be Woods or Cooks with 2 tds next game and Kupp with none.   Tate is obviously worthless, so you'd be taking a big gamble on Gordon coming back if you made that deal.  Id' more likely try to sell Kupp+a different RB for D-hop straight up

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50 minutes ago, Dave Stauff said:

Darren Waller a sell high or hold expecting more of the same???

See also: Cook, Jared - 2018

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9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

See also: Cook, Jared - 2018

Exactly right. Its why I own Waller everywhere. Cooks targets in 2018 (101, 5th in NFL) and the fact that Waller is way more a giant WR (Georgia Tech no less) than a TE.   Cook had only five games with seven or more targets last year, Waller is 3-for-3 so far this year.

Edited by BigSteelThrill

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4 hours ago, travdogg said:

I see no reason to sell high. Frankly, other than Kelce, I'm not sure there is a TE I'd rather have. He's firmly in tier 2 with Ertz and Kittle for me. I think its more likely that Tate takes from Shepard than Engram.

I completely agree. Trading Engram for Kelce seems like trying to move Lamar for Mahomes. Sure one is better, but I don't think the difference is enough to trade for. 

1 hour ago, Dave Stauff said:

Darren Waller a sell high or hold expecting more of the same???

I think he is a top 6 TE all year. Carr loves short passes and there's not much else on the team. Their D doesn't appear good enough to allow the Raiders to be run-centric either. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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