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Gottabesweet

Week 7 BUY LOW & SELL HIGH thread (REDRAFT)

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Anyone think buying low on Will Fuller makes sense?

Schedule looks good: ATL, @KC, @INDY, OAK.

Has crazy air yard stats. Him and Watson just missing and Stills banged up.

Guy just offered me Fuller for my J. Goff (and I have L. Jackson with K. Allen, T. Lockett, P. Dorsett, D. Pettis as WR depth).

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Trying to buy low on Hopkins.  Got an “let me sleep on it”. Trying to distance myself from the Davante Adams turf toe.  

PPR 

Hopkins, Kittle, Gallup 

Adams, Boyd, Hooper, Golden Tate.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Trying to buy low on Hopkins.  Got an “let me sleep on it”. Trying to distance myself from the Davante Adams turf toe.  

PPR 

Hopkins, Kittle, Gallup 

Adams, Boyd, Hooper, Golden Tate.  

I’m trying to buy low on Hopkins

But not sure I have the pieces... but the owner said he’d listen.

I floated out Hilton and McCoy for Hopkins.

Unfortunately neither of those guys practiced fully today.

They’ve both scored more than Hopkins though and the guy needs a running back in a bad way.

 

 

Edited by VikingFrog
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I'm sure it's been mentioned, but in WR/TE combined leagues I'm considering moving Engram with Tate returning. Just not sure the pie is big enough in NY.

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Is Montgomery still a buy low candidate?  I'm considering offering Kerryon for Montgomery and Hooper to hedge against Howard's brutal performance at TE.

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1 hour ago, papacapps said:

Is Montgomery still a buy low candidate?  I'm considering offering Kerryon for Montgomery and Hooper to hedge against Howard's brutal performance at TE.

HA! I just traded Montgomery for Kerryon....actually I traded Boyd and Montgomery for Kerryon.

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6 hours ago, papacapps said:

Is Montgomery still a buy low candidate?  I'm considering offering Kerryon for Montgomery and Hooper to hedge against Howard's brutal performance at TE.

you'll need to get him before he shreds the Raiders this weekend.after that, he's a tough get, going to cost you 

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Traded AJ Brown for Robby Anderson. Liked the targets Anderson got on their one national TV game. Was getting short and intermediate stuff, not just deep routes. Just a funky start for him I think and he's just bench fodder anyways but feel more confident plugging him in on bye weeks if needed. Could be totally wrong but how much can it really hurt me? Can't imagine Brown is turning into some must start this year.

 

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Sent Hooper in a sell high (I do think he continues to impress though) and Golden Tate my WR5 or WR 6   (Adams, Allen, Boyd, MVS, Corey Davis, Dede)

for George Kittle in a PPR league.  I'm hoping Kittle can start putting in some big games.  The best part for me is he cleared his bye week as waivers are pretty bare at TE with 20 TE's on rosters.

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Trying to buy low on Ronald Jones II before he takes that starting job for real in Tampa Bay, owner doesn't really seem to value him at all. You think I could swing a Diontae Johnson for RoJo II straight up? 14-team Standard scoring Double Flex League:

 

Team (K, D/ST not listed)

QB: Lamar Jackson

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, Marques-Valdez Scantling, Diontae Johnson, Preston Williams

RB: Devonta Freeman, Chris Carson, Malcolm Brown

TE: Mark Andrews

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24 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

Trying to buy low on Ronald Jones II before he takes that starting job for real in Tampa Bay, owner doesn't really seem to value him at all. You think I could swing a Diontae Johnson for RoJo II straight up? 14-team Standard scoring Double Flex League:

 

Team (K, D/ST not listed)

QB: Lamar Jackson

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, Marques-Valdez Scantling, Diontae Johnson, Preston Williams

RB: Devonta Freeman, Chris Carson, Malcolm Brown

TE: Mark Andrews

I don't think most Jones owners would go for that. I would probably be a bit offended by that offer. Think you missed the chance to buy low.

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16 hours ago, papacapps said:

Is Montgomery still a buy low candidate?  I'm considering offering Kerryon for Montgomery and Hooper to hedge against Howard's brutal performance at TE.

I traded away Gallman and E.Sanders for Montgomery.

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On 10/2/2019 at 5:55 PM, kyoun1e said:

Anyone think buying low on Will Fuller makes sense?

Schedule looks good: ATL, @KC, @INDY, OAK.

Has crazy air yard stats. Him and Watson just missing and Stills banged up.

Guy just offered me Fuller for my J. Goff (and I have L. Jackson with K. Allen, T. Lockett, P. Dorsett, D. Pettis as WR depth).

An emphatic yes on Fuller! #12 in the NFL in air yards and Watson missed him by inches on a 70 yard bomb last week. The big games are coming. 

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19 hours ago, papacapps said:

Is Montgomery still a buy low candidate?  I'm considering offering Kerryon for Montgomery and Hooper to hedge against Howard's brutal performance at TE.

He certainly is--expect him to get around 70-75% of the snaps and around 20-23 touches. The Raider D is anemic and I think the buy low window abruptly closes on Sunday afternoon..I can see him going for 100-120 total yards and 2 scores. 

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I'll throw in Sony Michel, offish line play, no Devlin, weird substitutions, but he's just getting lots of opportunities. And his owners must be sick of him.

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5 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'll throw in Sony Michel, offish line play, no Devlin, weird substitutions, but he's just getting lots of opportunities. And his owners must be sick of him.

I disagree on Michel—he lacks juice and has broken 0.0 tackles this year...in Belichekean fashion, expect Harris to come out of nowhere in a few weeks and become the 1st-2nd down hammer. Harris is the guy to buy low on before he seizes his opportunity. Once he plays and shows he’s capable, no owner will be looking to deal him. 

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On 10/1/2019 at 2:56 PM, Man of Constant Sorrow said:

I mentioned this in his thread, but Jaylen Samuels might be at his highest trade value to date - with a recent great game on national TV and some concern over Conner's injury status.

I think I am going to test the Connor owner in my dynasty league.

Anyone seen Samuels traded recently? 

IMO Conner owners should be thinking of selling with the emergence of Samuels. So maybe Conner owner are thinking trade, or they should be. Samuels taking over seems like a possibility.

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2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

IMO Conner owners should be thinking of selling with the emergence of Samuels. So maybe Conner owner are thinking trade, or they should be. Samuels taking over seems like a possibility.

Emergence? It was one game and Conner also had a great game.

Samuels had a grand total of 8 opportunities going into last week. The thought of him taking over seems way premature.

Good handcuff though.

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9 hours ago, Chaka said:

Emergence? It was one game and Conner also had a great game.

Samuels had a grand total of 8 opportunities going into last week. The thought of him taking over seems way premature.

Good handcuff though.

Connor owners are deluded if they think that backfield won’t turn into a full blown RBBC...BTW, Connor gets banged up way too much 

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2 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Connor owners are deluded if they think that backfield won’t turn into a full blown RBBC...BTW, Connor gets banged up way too much 

Like I said, Samuels is a good handcuff. But the notion that Samuels is anything but a clear #2 to a healthy Conner seems highly speculative based on one game vs a clearly outmatched Cincinnati.

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Selll: Gurley.

people love to chase TDs, and coming off a 2 TD night (that should have only been 1)  I think some folks might get the itch to buy Gurley.

Rams defense is a wreck, they’re in shootouts every game & they don’t run block well. What little use in the passing game Gurley’s seen has been largely ineffective - opposing DCs seem to have wised up to McVay’s play-calling a bit. 

If I had Gurley this seems like the perfect “big game” to move him after. 

I see a lot of 50-70 yard, 1-3 Rec, 0-1 TD games going forward. 

Sell sell sell! 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Selll: Gurley.

people love to chase TDs, and coming off a 2 TD night (that should have only been 1)  I think some folks might get the itch to buy Gurley.

Rams defense is a wreck, they’re in shootouts every game & they don’t run block well. What little use in the passing game Gurley’s seen has been largely ineffective - opposing DCs seem to have wised up to McVay’s play-calling a bit. 

If I had Gurley this seems like the perfect “big game” to move him after. 

I see a lot of 50-70 yard, 1-3 Rec, 0-1 TD games going forward. 

Sell sell sell! 

I’m not sure anyone is buying. He sits in my flex every week and has done okay from that spot.

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21 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Like I said, Samuels is a good handcuff. But the notion that Samuels is anything but a clear #2 to a healthy Conner seems highly speculative based on one game vs a clearly outmatched Cincinnati.

There’s also the fact that Steelers coaching said they wanted to utilize him more in the preseason. 

I wanted to draft him but missed by a couple picks. 

And now that they’re going with wildcat, and Samuels is their WCQB, his value is legit. 

It'll be less of a traditional time-share, but he is going to get used as a RB in likely a 65-35 split, but the 5-7 wildcat plays they run a game are going to be bad for Conner’s value.

i agree with @FGITLOTR - Conner’s value takes a hit with the emergence of Samuels. 

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1 minute ago, VikingFrog said:

I’m not sure anyone is buying. He sits in my flex every week and has done okay from that spot.

Maybe not,  but if there’s a week to try to sell it’s off of a 2-TD game. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

There’s also the fact that Steelers coaching said they wanted to utilize him more in the preseason. 

I wanted to draft him but missed by a couple picks. 

And now that they’re going with wildcat, and Samuels is their WCQB, his value is legit. 

It'll be less of a traditional time-share, but he is going to get used as a RB in likely a 65-35 split, but the 5-7 wildcat plays they run a game are going to be bad for Conner’s value.

i agree with @FGITLOTR - Conner’s value takes a hit with the emergence of Samuels. 

Why? Conner had his best game of the season last week. How is it more harmful than Rudolph dropping back to pass 5-7 more times/game?

Tomlin also called the wildcat gimmicky (or was it the OC?) so I wouldn't count on them rolling it out every week just yet.

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21 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Maybe not,  but if there’s a week to try to sell it’s off of a 2-TD game. 

He had a 2 TD game last week as well.

He’s scored about 10, 13, 4, 19, 16 in non PPR through 5 weeks. Not killing it but not ruining my squad. I’m holding. But I’ve been wrong before.

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13 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

He had a 2 TD game last week as well.

He’s scored about 10, 13, 4, 19, 16 in non PPR through 5 weeks. Not killing it but not ruining my squad. I’m holding. But I’ve been wrong before.

 Even better. Because one of the touchdowns this week was a total fluke .  Had the Everett touchdown been called correctly on the field, early would’ve had a one touchdown game. 

 As for the weekly numbers, the reason I advise selling is because that’s what I expect to continue moving forward. 

 And if you can find someone optimistic, you might be able to turn him into two players who give you that same production each every week. 

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51 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

There’s also the fact that Steelers coaching said they wanted to utilize him more in the preseason. 

I wanted to draft him but missed by a couple picks. 

And now that they’re going with wildcat, and Samuels is their WCQB, his value is legit. 

It'll be less of a traditional time-share, but he is going to get used as a RB in likely a 65-35 split, but the 5-7 wildcat plays they run a game are going to be bad for Conner’s value.

i agree with @FGITLOTR - Conner’s value takes a hit with the emergence of Samuels. 

I'd expect the Steelers to run about 5-7 wildcat plays the rest of the season, not 5-7 every week.

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1 minute ago, davearm said:

I'd expect the Steelers to run about 5-7 wildcat plays the rest of the season, not 5-7 every week.

They do play the Bengals one more time!

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2 minutes ago, Loipz said:

They do play the Bengals one more time!

And that's why the number isn't zero ;)

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20 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Even better. Because one of the touchdowns this week was a total fluke .  Had the Everett touchdown been called correctly on the field, early would’ve had a one touchdown game. 

 As for the weekly numbers, the reason I advise selling is because that’s what I expect to continue moving forward. 

 And if you can find someone optimistic, you might be able to turn him into two players who give you that same production each every week. 

What two players producing 10-15 Points per game would you hope to get for Gurley?  Assuming one would have to be a RB to replace that depth?

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19 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

What two players producing 10-15 Points per game would you hope to get for Gurley?  Assuming one would have to be a RB to replace that depth?

That’s up to you. I ain’t in your league. ;) 

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32 minutes ago, davearm said:

I'd expect the Steelers to run about 5-7 wildcat plays the rest of the season, not 5-7 every week.

That’s not what I saw in their last game. 

They seem very content lining up Samuel at QB for the option play early & often. 

And it was effective. 

It caps Rudoph’s upside & absolutely kills Juju, since it’s not like Samuels is passing out of the WC ala Ronnie Brown. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s up to you. I ain’t in your league. ;) 

In a more direct statement. I just don’t think you are gonna get two guys for him that can put up those kinds of points.

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32 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s not what I saw in their last game. 

They seem very content lining up Samuel at QB for the option play early & often. 

And it was effective. 

It caps Rudoph’s upside & absolutely kills Juju, since it’s not like Samuels is passing out of the WC ala Ronnie Brown. 

And how many times did you see it the first three weeks?

Now that it's on tape and other teams are prepared to defend it, it'll be barely used.

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On 10/2/2019 at 4:55 PM, kyoun1e said:

Anyone think buying low on Will Fuller makes sense?

Schedule looks good: ATL, @KC, @INDY, OAK.

Has crazy air yard stats. Him and Watson just missing and Stills banged up.

Guy just offered me Fuller for my J. Goff (and I have L. Jackson with K. Allen, T. Lockett, P. Dorsett, D. Pettis as WR depth).

Dropped fuller this week due to te concerns.   No one picked him up in my league

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57 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s not what I saw in their last game. 

They seem very content lining up Samuel at QB for the option play early & often. 

And it was effective. 

It caps Rudoph’s upside & absolutely kills Juju, since it’s not like Samuels is passing out of the WC ala Ronnie Brown. 

Agree they are running that until it does really poorly.  They really dont have much choice

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27 minutes ago, davearm said:

And how many times did you see it the first three weeks?

Now that it's on tape and other teams are prepared to defend it, it'll be barely used.

They’ll keep running it until someone stops it. It’s a tried & true formula in the NFL. 

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58 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

In a more direct statement. I just don’t think you are gonna get two guys for him that can put up those kinds of points.

But you might. 

If I’ve got Ronald Jones & Marquis Brown and someone offers me Gurley, I’d probably bite, depending on my team needs & depth. 

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7 minutes ago, need2know said:

Dropped fuller this week due to te concerns.   No one picked him up in my league

He was dropped in my league this week when the blind bidding went through... lasted about 10 minutes on the wire. 12 team league, 15 player rosters.

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

They’ll keep running it until someone stops it. It’s a tried & true formula in the NFL. 

We'll see.  I'm more inclined to believe it's a gimmick that they fooled the Bengals with because the Bengals aren't very good, and probably didn't prepare for it.

Everyone will prepare to stop it now that it's on tape.

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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

But you might. 

If I’ve got Ronald Jones & Marquis Brown and someone offers me Gurley, I’d probably bite, depending on my team needs & depth. 

As a Gurley owner, I would not be close to accepting that. I’d rather continue to start him in my Rb2 or flex spot. But I appreciate the example and insight.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

As a Gurley owner, I would not be close to accepting that. I’d rather continue to start him in my Rb2 or flex spot. But I appreciate the example and insight.

It’s just an example. And if the Gurley owner needed a WR, the math says you should probably accept it. 

And it’s funny - I am a RoJo/M.Brown owner and I’m honestly not sure I’d give that for Gurley.  I feel like RoJo is a couple weeks away from marching Gurley’s weekly numbers. 

And that’s without the concern that maybe he suffers a setback with that tricky knee, which hang over him all year, whether justified or not. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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5 hours ago, need2know said:

Dropped fuller this week due to te concerns.   No one picked him up in my league

I've got a John Brown for him offer out there.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Even better. Because one of the touchdowns this week was a total fluke .  Had the Everett touchdown been called correctly on the field, early would’ve had a one touchdown game. 

 As for the weekly numbers, the reason I advise selling is because that’s what I expect to continue moving forward. 

 And if you can find someone optimistic, you might be able to turn him into two players who give you that same production each every week. 

Looking over the twitter machine to see if I can glean if TY is going to play, and I read a guy who just traded

Gurley for TY Hilton and Kerryon

Now, thats how you sell high

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Wrigley said:

Looking over the twitter machine to see if I can glean if TY is going to play, and I read a guy who just traded

Gurley for TY Hilton and Kerryon

Now, thats how you sell high

 And if you’re the one giving up TY Hilton and Johnson that’s how you get raped. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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On 10/2/2019 at 8:49 PM, Chaka said:

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but in WR/TE combined leagues I'm considering moving Engram with Tate returning. Just not sure the pie is big enough in NY.

I agree that this is a concern that Engrams target share may go down a bit with the return of Tate to the lineup. At least I think Tate is better than Fowler and the other WR they have been putting out there instead.

Another thing Ive noticed is that Daniel Jones has not been throwing as many catchable targets to Engram the last two weeks as Eli was giving Engram prior to this.

That said I still think Engram is the most talented skill player on the Giants roster besides Barkley, so I am not expecting much if any decline for him.

Engram is my most owned player this year, so the right offer could move me, but it would have to be really good to consider parting with him.

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