The importance and strategy of HANDCUFFS (1 Viewer)

Handcuff strategy is a common Shark play. It seems like handcuffs become even more important as the season wears on? Your stud goes down, your handcuff has immediate #1 value play vs holding a quality player as a weekly Flex option? It's amazing how I find most teams in this league simply ignore handcuffs and go for the highest rated players. Not everyone,  but many. It's a roll of the dice if you will.

Yes, handcuff in your draft late rounds depending upon bench size and players. 

My personal dilemma is to drop a player that is a suitable Flex for a handcuff, or not? Even the suitable Flex has value regardless and if their running back 1 A goes down, i.e. Aaron Jones then value immediately increases. I'll show this 8-3 team. The strategy question comes down to dropping Jamaal Williams, GB and picking up Wayne Gallman, NYG. The injury news around Saquan has my attention. Saquan hasn't been "right" in awhile. I hope his bye week has done him good. Even if Saquan was 100% healthy what strategy do you Sharks employ?

12-team .5 ppr with 4 bench and 1 IR

QB - Mahomes on a bye (will need to pick up a FA QB and must drop one player to do so).

RB - Barkley (acquired in a trade to a desperate owner)

RB - Kamara (this dude will either make of break my season, TD's have not been there)

WR - Evans

WR - Lockett

Flex - Tyrell Williams or DK or Jamaal

K - Lutz

D/ST - Buffalo

BN: B Hill (most likely drop to get a QB like Brissett, had Stafford fill in admirable. Hill was picked up because of serious week 11 bye week issues).

BN: DK Metcalf (a handcuff for Lockett if you will. He could start in the Flex as is, or if Lockett were to go down).

BN: Jamaal Williams (this is the question, drop him for Gallman handcuff)

BN: Murray (handcuff for Kamara)

Working through this it seems like Gallman for Jamaal is the way to go? Unless it's because it's the Giants and kinda of a lost season?

I would drop Jamaal Williams for Gallman. You won't need the RB depth since you have handcuffs. I think you'd play Gallman/Murray over Williams if Barkley/Kamara go down. It's unlikely you ever have to start him in your flex over DK or Tyrell. I'd venture to guess in a 4 bench .5ppr league there's a receiver available who will get you more points per game than Williams.

Once the bye weeks are over more teams can dump fill in players for handcuffs.

the question is a combination of:

likelihood that starter will miss time * portion of workload that handcuff will take * results that handcuff can likely generate (or use ceiling if you prefer)

In this case I would say it's something like

.2 * .8 * 15 (maybe ceiling of 24?)

.4 * .7 * 10 (maybe ceiling of 18?)

WIlliams: 2.4 or 3.84

Gallman: 2.8 or 5.04

I'm just making up those values for the 4 components without thinking too much, but that is basically the framework to use, in my mind.

This is a good thread conceptually, even though it's really a WDIpickupinwaivers. It made me think down the rabbit hole below.

Love the way you positioned it @Long Ball Larry - solid framework.

In this specific use case, yes I would drop Jamaal for Gallman. In this specific use case it seems a complete no-brainer given OP owns Barkely -- as Barkley is currently ailing, Gallman has a little more immediate value than Williams to your team As such, I wonder the formula @Long Ball Larry devised should add an insurance value -- a kicker value multiple to the value of the cuff for your starter.

In the general case where you own the handcuff to a starter you don't own, I think there is generally more value in going after another cuff who has a similar likelihood the starter will miss time and/or portion of workload the cuff would adopt, and that also has flex value.

An example is OP's squad if Barkley had been 100% healthy all year without any concerns. Is it better to lock up Gallman in that case, or look for a guy like Mattison or Pollard, who will get some usage in every game, and also have a clear path to start if Cook/Zeke go down.

In this case, not only do you have lotto insurance against injury, you have a guy who could potentially give you starting flex depth. The cost/risk here is just how thin your squad might be if Barkley did go down -- would the potential lower points from Mattison/Pollard be enough to float you instead of Gallman?

I think there is also an interesting use case where you are debating the cuff to a starter you own who may not do as well if that starter went down, vs an upside lotto pick who would be huge if their starter went down? An example to illustrate is Carson or Henry. Cuffs would be Penny or Dion Lewis -- but they wouldn't have nearly the same kind of impact as their respective starters because they aren't as talented/effective in their roles.

In that case, is it better to go after a great upside cuff like Mattison or Pollard than Penny/Lewis? Penny/Lewis would have likely better outputs as starters than Mattison/Pollard would as every week flexes, but I don't think the delta is huge.

So would you rather cuff a Carson/Henry with a Mattison/Pollard than their own cuffs in Penny/Lewis? I actually prefer a Mattison/Pollard in that case, as if Carson/Henry went down, I know I wouldn't fill their production with their cuffs in the same way Mattison/Pollard might for theirs. The risk here is simply that the starters for the cuffs you own don't go down while your own starters do. This risk is mitigated by positional depth -- less risky if you have another quality RB starter, more risky if your RB depth is thin.

That "portion of workload" multiplier is the tricky bit. If something happens to Aaron Jones or Barkley I expect the run/pass ratio gets shifted dramatically. If you lose a starter the answer might be "none of the above".

Handcuffs are an interesting discussion with several variables that come into play. I would imagine a team manager has to take it all in and process the information accordingly.

While a part of me wanted to hang onto Jamaal Williams, GB because 1) he's been scoring decent, 2) immediate value if Jones went down, and 3) sheer pride of trying to show him off either as a trade or a Flex play.

I came to the conclusion with all the variables present that dropping J Williams and picking up W Gallman makes the most sense at that particular time. The truth is I held onto J Williams for like 6-7 weeks and only played him once. He did score. I also on several occasions tried to trade him to the Aaron Jones owner to no prevail.

In other words, not everyone in the league sees handcuffs the same. Some don't even value them in the least bit. I've noticed only a few saavy owners practicing this art. No one wants to believe or even consider that their player would get hurt. If they do, it can be a disaster.

If Barkley goes down, Gallman provides solid handcuff insurance. If Barkley shines, no harm, no foul.

a cleverly disguised AC post

Dr. Dan said:

a cleverly disguised AC post

Click to expand...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-z0Pm7tccvc

Dr. Dan said:

a cleverly disguised AC post

Click to expand...

Not really Dr. Dan. Everyone knows Gallman has very little value to play. So it's not a WDIS thread. I've been out of the AC forum for several years now. The last few years I simply offered advice. I don't need who do I start advice. It really is a handcuff discussion for myself and others to follow. I use my personal example of Barkley and Gallman vs. a solid Flex option. I have appreciated the responses.

People talk about handcuffs all the time. I just want to understand this better and when it's time to make the play from draft night, to injury (which can be too late), to after bye weeks. I study the rosters of all teams as well to help determine the direction I wish to go.

Edit: Ya know, if want to be helpful Dr. Dan you could either add to the conversation or simply stop playing the thread police lol.

habsfan said:

That "portion of workload" multiplier is the tricky bit. If something happens to Aaron Jones or Barkley I expect the run/pass ratio gets shifted dramatically. If you lose a starter the answer might be "none of the above".

Click to expand...

no doubt.  whatever value you use will just be a guess.  but it seems more sound to at least try to assign a value, especially for testing assumptions later.

I would also say that my formula of putting in portion of the workload AND the points outcome is probably not doing it right.  The points outcome is essentially already building in the portion of the workload.  So it would probably be better to use the points outcome of the existing starter, then multiply the portion of the workload and/or portion of the offense share that the handcuff would get (considering potential changes in the offense). 

Team Smokin' said:

Not really Dr. Dan. Everyone knows Gallman has very little value to play. So it's not a WDIS thread. I've been out of the AC forum for several years now. The last few years I simply offered advice. I don't need who do I start advice. It really is a handcuff discussion for myself and others to follow. I use my personal example of Barkley and Gallman vs. a solid Flex option. I have appreciated the responses.

People talk about handcuffs all the time. I just want to understand this better and when it's time to make the play from draft night, to injury (which can be too late), to after bye weeks. I study the rosters of all teams as well to help determine the direction I wish to go.

Edit: Ya know, if want to be helpful Dr. Dan you could either add to the conversation or simply stop playing the thread police lol.

Click to expand...

idk when you post your entire team and end with essentially a "what do I do" question, it seems like it's an attempt to get advice on "who do I pick up/drop"

A discussion on hanscuffs is great, and this OP started out that way with the first 1/4 on a general discussion (and a great one to have), but the last 3/4 then took a hard left to AC land with your "personal dillema"

Dr. Dan said:

idk when you post your entire team and end with essentially a "what do I do" question, it seems like it's an attempt to get advice on "who do I pick up/drop"

A discussion on hanscuffs is great, and this OP started out that way, then took a hard left to AC land 

Click to expand...

You're entitled to your opinion. I see the discussion as a positive to many. Add to it vs just knocking it. I understand the AC forum and I am not asking for advice. I didn't ask for advice. I simply stated what I may do and the strategy of handcuffs. Peace Brother. This back n' forth stuff is for the birds. I'm out on responding unless there is value there.

Edit: Let the moderators determine the value of a thread vs. killing the momentum. That too me is more annoying then anything. 

I think the biggest factor when deciding this is can the handcuff be a reliable starter if he was in the starting role.  As someone mentioned above not all handcuffs are created equal.  Personally in the dilema of the OP I would have dropped Brian Hill for Gallman over Williams because Williams has shown he can carry the load with Jones out and Jones seems to miss time regularly.  Also, Hill really hasn't done anything while he has been given the chance to the be guy with Freeman out.  However, the QB situation throws a wrench in that plan.

Now back to the philosophical question.   Another factor is that as you get deeper into the season depth becomes much less of a concern.  I want to always try and maximize my starting spots because injuries kill you during the game not when you need to pick a starting lineup.  If you have a key injury in a playoff game you are more than likely going to lose anyway and have your season end and never get a chance to even use the handcuff.  In those cases I would rather have the higher upside handcuff (Mattison, Pollard, etc). 

In this specific case I think Williams is the much higher upside handcuff over Gallman and would rather roster Williams because of that.  Now, the fact that Barkley is currently dinged and Jones is not you have another piece of info that can swing the pendulum to Gallman.  If there is a chance Barkley is out then Gallman could jump over Williams because now Gallman is the starting RB replacing your Barkley while Williams is not.   However,, for this week NYG play the Bears so I would not expect anything out of Gallman even if Barkley is out.   So look at Williams....who plays SF....not much better.   This is a tough dilemma.  Personally I would expect the actual outcome (even if Barkley sits) to be a coin flip.  Gallman probably has the higher ceiling with Barkley out.    That being said, after the bye week I think Barkley plays so you aren't starting Gallman anyway.  I keep Williams as the higher upside cuff even though you own Barkley.

Gally said:

Now back to the philosophical question.   Another factor is that as you get deeper into the season depth becomes much less of a concern.  I want to always try and maximize my starting spots because injuries kill you during the game not when you need to pick a starting lineup.  If you have a key injury in a playoff game you are more than likely going to lose anyway and have your season end and never get a chance to even use the handcuff.  In those cases I would rather have the higher upside handcuff (Mattison, Pollard, etc).

In this specific case I think Williams is the much higher upside handcuff over Gallman and would rather roster Williams because of that.  Now, the fact that Barkley is currently dinged and Jones is not you have another piece of info that can swing the pendulum to Gallman.  If there is a chance Barkley is out then Gallman could jump over Williams because now Gallman is the starting RB replacing your Barkley while Williams is not.   However,, for this week NYG play the Bears so I would not expect anything out of Gallman even if Barkley is out.   So look at Williams....who plays SF....not much better.   This is a tough dilemma.  Personally I would expect the actual outcome (even if Barkley sits) to be a coin flip.  Gallman probably has the higher ceiling with Barkley out.    That being said, after the bye week I think Barkley plays so you aren't starting Gallman anyway.  I keep Williams as the higher upside cuff even though you own Barkley.

Click to expand...

I don't think expected points is always the best way to manage your roster. In cases where there's no question about who you will put in your rb slots, for instance when you have Barkley and Kamara, your depth should reflect your biggest concern: injury to either them. You don't need or get credit for points on your bench, so whatever Mattison, or Jamaal Williams will get you are mostly useless. Wide receivers of the same value will get you better results plugged into your flex in any ppr league.  Unless Jones or Cooks get injured, whence you'd marginally increase your flex points over DK or T Williams.

Most people put insurance on their own house not their neighbor's because 1) you need a house, and 2) you can only live in one house anyway.

lol @ this going in the AC.

cloppbeast said:

I don't think expected points is always the best way to manage your roster. In cases where there's no question about who you will put in your rb slots, for instance when you have Barkley and Kamara, your depth should reflect your biggest concern: injury to either them. You don't need or get credit for points on your bench, so whatever Mattison, or Jamaal Williams will get you are mostly useless. Wide receivers of the same value will get you better results plugged into your flex in any ppr league.  Unless Jones or Cooks get injured, whence you'd marginally increase your flex points over DK or T Williams.

Most people put insurance on their own house not their neighbor's because 1) you need a house, and 2) you can only live in one house anyway.

Click to expand...

I agree to some extent however if you have an inferior handcuff (Gallman fits that idea for me) where even if he is the man he likely doesn't really get you many points anyway I would rather have someone like Williams that I think in a part time role still scores the same as Gallman as the man while also getting a boost if Jones gets hurt. 

In the case of a Mattison or Pollard that are good backs if I had Cook or Zeke I would much rather have those handcuffs because they become solid RB2 with RB1 upside if your starter (assuming you have Cook/Zeke) were to go down.  That is worthwhile insurance. 

Marginal handcuffs don't really provide great insurance once the playoffs start.  If your main guy is healthy he is in and if he gets hurt mid game you likely lose anyway.  Having a mediocre handcuff doesn't do much for me just because he is the main guy behind my starter at this point in the season.