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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
NotSmart
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
If you test positive it means that you have been infected with the virus, but the test results can't tell you when that happened.
NotSmart
Footballguy
I was more wondering if someone had already had the virus and recovered from it and was symptom free now, would the test show that, and would the patient be told that info?
kutta
Footballguy
From your first article:
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.
I will wager any amount of money that anyone would like that we don’t hit 150 million cases of this.
kutta
Footballguy
You really think there are a significant number of people that have died from this that we haven’t counted? Really?
Capella
Footballguy
When trying to find out how dangerous it is, a very small number is significant. So, yes.
need2know
Footballguy
Yeah. The counts are off. They have been off for a long time. They will continue to be off
kutta
Footballguy
NotSmart
Footballguy
No one on earth had immunity to this - a significant percentage of the world's population will get it.
It's literally a pandemic.
kutta
Footballguy
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
That is a cool pic. But, it made me wonder: if they have to ride through waist high snow, on horseback, up the mountains- why are they bothering to go to such a remote area to promote prevention? Aren't they risking that isolated population more, just by showing up?
NotSmart
Footballguy
No thanks, because it doesn't seem like an appropriate thing to wager on.
Besides, a significant number of infected people will never be tested and confirmed - in the end the generally accepted statistical numbers will be estimates based on extrapolating data.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
2017's Unseen Enemy is on CNN but it's almost over. I plan on watching it on demand.
chet
Footballguy
Here are some of the relevant numbers:
There are ~950k hospital beds in the US. At any time, 600k-650k of them are taken up by chronically ill people. That means there are 300k-350k beds available for COVID-19 victims without overwhelming the system. This is why it's so important that we spread the victims over time and not have a spike.
There are ~950k hospital beds in the US. At any time, 600k-650k of them are taken up by chronically ill people. That means there are 300k-350k beds available for COVID-19 victims without overwhelming the system. This is why it's so important that we spread the victims over time and not have a spike.
kutta
Footballguy
We could donate the winnings to COVID19 charities.
But I do agree it will be tough to track.
Doug B
Footballguy
I need to dig up a cite when I’m not in bed ... but there is a test for the antibodies that the immune system creates to fight off COVID. A recovered COVID patient would test positive for the antibodies, but negative (or very low) for viral load.
EDIT: Good layman’s article regarding the various methods of testing.
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rcam
Footballguy
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Assuming this site is kinda, sorta, accurate - the mortality rate is more around 7%. If you look at #deaths/(#recovered + #deaths) and if you think the numbers coming out of China are accurate then the death rate is going to be much, much higher than any seasonal flu. If you exclude China the #deaths/(#recovered + #deaths) = 25% - which is insane under any circumstances. I don't know what the actual rate is going to be but I think 2% (what was initially claimed) is really a best case scenario.
shader
Footballguy
Non-China Reported Cases
2/7 - 277
2/12 - 490
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/1 - 9,039 reported cases - 133 dead - USA 76 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/10 - 38,453 reported cases - 1,132 dead - USA 975 cases - 30 dead
3/11 - 45,386 reported cases - 1443 dead - USA 1,168 cases - 36 dead
3/12 - 53,763 reported cases - 1802 dead - USA 1,716 cases - 41 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/14 - 75,916 reported cases - 2,640 dead - USA 2,995 cases - 60 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
2/7 - 277
2/12 - 490
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/1 - 9,039 reported cases - 133 dead - USA 76 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/10 - 38,453 reported cases - 1,132 dead - USA 975 cases - 30 dead
3/11 - 45,386 reported cases - 1443 dead - USA 1,168 cases - 36 dead
3/12 - 53,763 reported cases - 1802 dead - USA 1,716 cases - 41 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/14 - 75,916 reported cases - 2,640 dead - USA 2,995 cases - 60 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
how do you explain S. Korea's 0.7% mortality rate? if anything I would see that is a reliable number due to the sheer amount of testing they have done. Keep in mind, I am talking about the true mortality rate, not the mortality rate which may be increased (as in Italy) due to health care shortages.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Dr Fauci says probably around 1%. Need to remember all these stats are missing undiagnosed cases in the denominator. I think it's true however that we don't really know the numerator either. At that rate, still 10 times deadlier than the flu.
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rcam
Footballguy
It isn't .7% because the illness is ongoing. Ultimately, mortality rate is going to be #deaths/#infected but *right now* it is better to look at #deaths/(#deaths + #recovered). Suppose I infected the entire world tonight with COVID19... the mortality rate isn't really going to be anywhere close to 5K/7.7B because there would be about 7.7B cases where we don't know the outcome. S. Korea, when looking at deaths vs. recoveries has a mortality rate of 8%.
rcam
Footballguy
Right, there are a lot of unknowns but the point is no one should be thinking this is anything close to a bad flu season or that the threat risk is being overstated.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
We were warned in this 2017 documentary that we were due for a pandemic but instead CDC received cuts. Now it's costing so much more to get a handle on it than it would have had we been prepared. Scary stuff.
kutta
Footballguy
So even though 92% of open cases worldwide are considered mild, you want to cause even more panic by using inflated numbers that have zero chance of occurring?
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Here's a quote of CDC Director Robert Redfield saying in front of Congress that some coronavirus cases have been diagnosed posthumously from supposed flu deaths.
One can fairly easily extrapolate that we're certainly missing some deaths. The question is how many.
kutta
Footballguy
Of course we are missing some. I have a hard time buying that it’s a significant number.
rcam
Footballguy
Where did I say anything like that? All I am trying to say is that the numbers are nothing close to the flu. Also, who cares if 92% of the cases are mild? No one is concerned about mild cases except in regards to infecting others.
kutta
Footballguy
Huh? Maybe I missed something.
Your equation for determining the death rate doesn’t take into account that the vast majority of people who have the disease are not going to die. So it artificially inflates the death rate.
Maybe I missed something in your post?
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Not sure if this has been posted before, but this is a great visual representation of "flattening the curve" via social distancing (click for little animations of dots flying around in a box infecting each other).
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Kevrunner
Footballguy
I’ve also in the county, within walking distance of the high school you referred to in an earlier post having their championship game cancelled.Never knew your were in Fairfax County.
Sorry for the high five. You need to wash your hands now.
JaxBill
Footballguy
@LitMoose: Publix cakes are peak Florida. https://twitter.com/LitMoose/status/1238939700863234048/photo/1
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
From the "well duh" category...
Old men who smoke are having devastating symptoms and up to 10% mortality rate.
Old men who smoke are having devastating symptoms and up to 10% mortality rate.
gianmarco
Footballguy
No they didn't. And they locked down an entire area then country to an extent we will never see here.
If not for their strict isolation, those numbers would be tremendously higher.
That sucks bad. I hope your family member fights through this and comes out well. Mind me asking you what their age is?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
There's a COVID tent with 40 extra "beds" set up outside the hospital in which I work. Unfortunately, business is booming.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I've seen it, so I suspect it's widely disseminated already. Hard to know if you should pass it on given the anecdotal nature, but there are definitely some nuances to the management suggested by the post.
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seahawk 17
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The definition of an influenza-like illness is fever + cough and/or sore throat. Could definitely have been the flu
NotSmart
Footballguy
I'm sorry to hear about your family member, I hope they recover quickly.
37 seems like a good age to be optimistic for a positive outcome.
NotSmart
Footballguy
What if you add a "bubbling" feeling in the lungs when breathing to those symptoms?
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Is he concerned about the lung scarring? What did they tell him about that? Glad he’s getting better!
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Insoxicated
I loved your post but wanted to address this:
Comparing us to Italy and saying we are better off because we had fewer confirmed cases is fallacious IMO.
We have been criminally negligent in testing. True estimates on cases right now range from tens of thousands to half a million.
IMO that metric is wayyyyyyyy too far off to consider viable for comparison.
