*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

[NotSmart]

Before long the stories about new cases and the number of cases won't even be reported on because they will be continuous and relentless and no longer newsworthy as a stand alone item.

 

[kutta]

How much lower? Even at 0.1% if the number infected rises quickly, the US will see a lot of death from this. The strain on the health care system will be massive.

At 0.1% we are in seasonal flu category. We sure don’t shut our world down for that.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Right now we have 2800 cases and 58 deaths. 650 of the cases and 40 deaths are in Washington. If we remove Washington so we can see how the rest of the country is going, we have 2150 cases and 18 deaths. That’s a 0.8% death rate.

I think we can ALL agree that our reported cases is WAY low since we aren’t doing much testing. It’s safe to assume our death rate outside of Washington is much lower than even 0.8%.

a) we might have missed some early deaths

b) not all of the sick have resolved their cases yet

 

[kutta]

a) we might have missed some early deaths

b) not all of the sick have resolved their cases yet

But you agree we aren’t close on the number of cases, right?

 

[Apple Jack]

That's horrifying.

I can't even imagine standing in that crowd - I'd go crazy every time someone coughed or sneezed.

It's ok, they're handing out water and snacks. More opportunities for transmission.

They're going to need to start handing out xanax if they don't get that under control.

 

[[icon]]

Rumors here FedEx is shutting down operations Monday.

Total Speculation from a friend and considering I was out drinking with two fedex pilots at a crawfish boil just a few hours ago and they hadn't heard about it..... I'm skeptical 
 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

But you agree we aren’t close on the number of cases, right?

100%.  Cases will explode now that we're testing.

 

[NotSmart]

Right now we have 2800 cases and 58 deaths. 650 of the cases and 40 deaths are in Washington. If we remove Washington so we can see how the rest of the country is going, we have 2150 cases and 18 deaths. That’s a 0.8% death rate.

I think we can ALL agree that our reported cases is WAY low since we aren’t doing much testing. It’s safe to assume our death rate outside of Washington is much lower than even 0.8%.

When hospitals become overwhelmed and run out of beds and ventilators, and doctors and nurses and hospital support staff and EMTs all start having their numbers reduced by becoming sick...

That's when the fatality rate will increase.

 

[Shula-holic]

Looks like the Russians handled this thing best of all

 

[Clown Car]

I read the cdc paper for Florida. All five pages. I got to the part about community functions and I’m on the fence about what to do. 
I am a homeschool leader and throw a prom for all the homeschool kids in a 4-5 county area. We are all very rural. I expect approximately 75 people. It is scheduled for mid April at a small venue. My DJ has already asked if I’m canceling. I told him he is free to cancel me if he wants but at the time I wasn’t canceling. This conversation was about a week ago. 
So now here we are. Schools are closed, all group activities have been canceled from state or national level admins (4-H, lego robotics, school sports)

The cdc paper says nothing over 100 people. Should I cancel? Try to reschedule for May? 

 

[kutta]

When hospitals become overwhelmed and run out of beds and ventilators, and doctors and nurses and hospital support staff and EMTs all start having their numbers reduced by becoming sick...

That's when the fatality rate will increase.

Yes. That would be a problem.

I’m surprised that doesn’t happen every flu season when we have 30k deaths.

 

[moleculo]

At 0.1% we are in seasonal flu category. We sure don’t shut our world down for that.

Depends on transmissibility, right?  

US population is 330M Americans.  0.1%  of that is= 330k.  I would think that's a big enough number to do something about.

So it comes down to how many people actually catch corona then.

 

[Joe Summer]

Reschedule for May, check everyone's temperature at the door, and have handwashing stations everywhere.

 

[kutta]

I read the cdc paper for Florida. All five pages. I got to the part about community functions and I’m on the fence about what to do. 
I am a homeschool leader and throw a prom for all the homeschool kids in a 4-5 county area. We are all very rural. I expect approximately 75 people. It is scheduled for mid April at a small venue. My DJ has already asked if I’m canceling. I told him he is free to cancel me if he wants but at the time I wasn’t canceling. This conversation was about a week ago. 
So now here we are. Schools are closed, all group activities have been canceled from state or national level admins (4-H, lego robotics, school sports)

The cdc paper says nothing over 100 people. Should I cancel? Try to reschedule for May? 

The pressure to cancel will be too much and you’ll have to.

But I would wait a bit and see how this plays out.

 

[kutta]

Depends on transmissibility, right?  

US population is 330M Americans.  0.1%  of that is= 330k.  I would think that's a big enough number to do something about.

So it comes down to how many people actually catch corona then.

Of course.

 

[skol asylum]

Right now we have 2800 cases and 58 deaths. 650 of the cases and 40 deaths are in Washington. If we remove Washington so we can see how the rest of the country is going, we have 2150 cases and 18 deaths. That’s a 0.8% death rate.

I think we can ALL agree that our reported cases is WAY low since we aren’t doing much testing. It’s safe to assume our death rate outside of Washington is much lower than even 0.8%.

Our reported death rates may also be understated. 

 

[NotSmart]

Yes. That would be a problem.

I’m surprised that doesn’t happen every flu season when we have 30k deaths.

That is the problem that everyone is worried about.

For the flu, the number of patients is roughly predictable, it's spread out over multiple months, and the number of patients doesn't grow exponentially.

 

[dgreen]

Looks like the Russians handled this thing best of all

How did they handle it?

 

[moleculo]

That is the problem that everyone is worried about.

For the flu, the number of patients is roughly predictable, it's spread out over multiple months, and the number of patients doesn't grow exponentially.

And we are still in flu season.  Just because we have COVID doesn't mean flu takes a break.

Here is where seasonality will definitely help... hospital capacity should be bigger in summer as we would not be dealing with flu at the same time.

 

[JaxBill]

I read the cdc paper for Florida. All five pages. I got to the part about community functions and I’m on the fence about what to do. 
I am a homeschool leader and throw a prom for all the homeschool kids in a 4-5 county area. We are all very rural. I expect approximately 75 people. It is scheduled for mid April at a small venue. My DJ has already asked if I’m canceling. I told him he is free to cancel me if he wants but at the time I wasn’t canceling. This conversation was about a week ago. 
So now here we are. Schools are closed, all group activities have been canceled from state or national level admins (4-H, lego robotics, school sports)

The cdc paper says nothing over 100 people. Should I cancel? Try to reschedule for May? 

Who knows what next week brings? The decision could be out of your hands.  i would tell your DJ and the other parents that you'll make a decision by end of March. That would still be 2 weeks lead time.

 

[avina1]

How did they handle it?

that is what I'm wondering. Are their numbers accurate?

 

[tamales]

Supposed to goto a christening in nj tomorrow. Real close family member of my wife's. Only one child being baptized so shouldn't be too crowded. But then a lunch at a restaurant to follow. Im a bit annoyed they didn't cancel. 15 people already bailed including the godfather. What a #### show. 

 

[kutta]

That is the problem that everyone is worried about.

For the flu, the number of patients is roughly predictable, it's spread out over multiple months, and the number of patients doesn't grow exponentially.

If 30k people die a year from the flu, and the death rate is 0.1%, that means we have 30 million flu cases each year. China has had 80 thousand cases of Corona, and they completely botched things early.

Just putting some numbers out there.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Right now we have 2800 cases and 58 deaths. 650 of the cases and 40 deaths are in Washington. If we remove Washington so we can see how the rest of the country is going, we have 2150 cases and 18 deaths. That’s a 0.8% death rate.

I think we can ALL agree that our reported cases is WAY low since we aren’t doing much testing. It’s safe to assume our death rate outside of Washington is much lower than even 0.8%.

People don’t die immediately. 

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Supposed to goto a christening in nj tomorrow.

Is it near Hoboken? The town is going on lockdown. 

 

[kutta]

People don’t die immediately. 

Agreed. Just going with what we have now.

I assume you also agree that the reported cases are WAY low?

 

[NotSmart]

Supposed to goto a christening in nj tomorrow. Real close family member of my wife's. Only one child being baptized so shouldn't be too crowded. But then a lunch at a restaurant to follow. Im a bit annoyed they didn't cancel. 15 people already bailed including the godfather. What a #### show. 

The NCAA didn't cancel their tournament until a couple of schools bailed and forced them to do the obvious right thing.

I can understand agonizing over whether to go to a funeral, I had to make that difficult decision last week (I went).

For a christening I wouldn't even consider it.

 

[Slapdash]

Right now we have 2800 cases and 58 deaths. 650 of the cases and 40 deaths are in Washington. If we remove Washington so we can see how the rest of the country is going, we have 2150 cases and 18 deaths. That’s a 0.8% death rate.

I think we can ALL agree that our reported cases is WAY low since we aren’t doing much testing. It’s safe to assume our death rate outside of Washington is much lower than even 0.8%.

Without testing, how do we know who is dying from COVID19 vs the flu?

 

[soothsayer]

My wife has a friend who has been vacationing in Spain for over a week. Got on one of the last flights out to the US last night out of Madrid and arrived in ATL today. Upon landing you'd think she'd be subject to significant screening, right? She was asked to fill out a paper questionnaire with two questions: 1 - do you have a fever? 2 - What phone number can you be reached at if necessary?

That's it. No temperature check. No review of her travel history or who she has been in contact with. No questions about flu-like symptoms or coughing. This seems wholly unacceptable and outrageous. Oh, and then she got on another flight to MSP.

 

[NotSmart]

If 30k people die a year from the flu, and the death rate is 0.1%, that means we have 30 million flu cases each year. China has had 80 thousand cases of Corona, and they completely botched things early.

Just putting some numbers out there.

This is a relative quick read and will explain the numbers.

 

[kutta]

Without testing, how do we know who is dying from COVID19 vs the flu?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say when people die they are getting tested for COVID19. If not, we are more inept that I could even imagine.

 

[NotSmart]

My wife has a friend who has been vacationing in Spain for over a week. Got on one of the last flights out to the US last night and arrived in ATL today. Upon landing you'd think she'd be subject to significant screening, right? She was asked to fill out a paper questionnaire with two questions: 1 - do you have a fever? 2 - What phone number can you be reached at if necessary?

That's it. No temperature check. No review of her travel history or who she has been in contact with. No questions about flu-like symptoms or coughing. This seems wholly unacceptable and outrageous.

It is unacceptable and outrageous.

Our elected leaders have failed us terribly.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I read the cdc paper for Florida. All five pages. I got to the part about community functions and I’m on the fence about what to do. 
I am a homeschool leader and throw a prom for all the homeschool kids in a 4-5 county area. We are all very rural. I expect approximately 75 people. It is scheduled for mid April at a small venue. My DJ has already asked if I’m canceling. I told him he is free to cancel me if he wants but at the time I wasn’t canceling. This conversation was about a week ago. 
So now here we are. Schools are closed, all group activities have been canceled from state or national level admins (4-H, lego robotics, school sports)

The cdc paper says nothing over 100 people. Should I cancel? Try to reschedule for May? 

I pulled my kids out of school prior to the announcement that school was closed.  Only by one day, but I didn't know that at the time.

For me the decision was mostly about how would I handle it if I knew the county/state was being too slow to react and I didn't do anything myself.  I'd have regretted it forever if my kids got sick (unlikely) or passed it on to someone else who became seriously ill.  Especially me or my wife. 

For us (and I get that not everyone is in the same spot) it's a minor(ish) inconvenience to quarantine for 10 days and then ride out the duration with others who've done the same thing.  I'd much rather err on that side of things than feel like I could have prevented something and didn't.  And right now no one has any idea who's infected and who's not.

 

[tamales]

Is it near Hoboken? The town is going on lockdown. 

Newark church and restaurant in Nutley

 

[JaxBill]

Supposed to goto a christening in nj tomorrow. Real close family member of my wife's. Only one child being baptized so shouldn't be too crowded. But then a lunch at a restaurant to follow. Im a bit annoyed they didn't cancel. 15 people already bailed including the godfather. What a #### show. 

if your main concern is the restaurant,  can you just go to the service and skip the meal?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Agreed. Just going with what we have now.

I assume you also agree that the reported cases are WAY low?

Of course. 

 

[Doug B]

That is the problem that everyone is worried about.

For the flu, the number of patients is roughly predictable, it's spread out over multiple months, and the number of patients doesn't grow exponentially.

The flu's hospitalization rate is also much lower than COVID's. That's a much more important figure than deaths -- number hospitalized is what overwhelms health systems and delays (or even makes unavailable) care for cardiac patients, accident patients, stroke victims, etc.

 

[Sand]

I’m sorry but that’s crazy. 
Everyone seems to hate comparing this to the flu. And I’m really not here. But over 30k people a year die from the flu. We could GREATLY reduce that if we shut down sports and restaurants. Is that number OK? 30k people dying from something we could have prevented? What kind of society are we?

Now imagine that the number is 1-1.5M.  Same answer?

Those are the current numbers.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This is a badass photo of Chinese medical officials working the pandemic.

 

[kutta]

Now imagine that the number is 1-1.5M.  Same answer?

Those are the current numbers.

The current numbers where?

 

[tamales]

if your main concern is the restaurant,  can you just go to the service and skip the meal?

I plan on suggesting that to the wife

 

[fruity pebbles]

I can tell you first hand, hospitals are not prepared for this if the curve doesn’t flatten. 

 

[NotSmart]

I can tell you first hand, hospitals are not prepared for this if the curve doesn’t flatten. 

The curve isn't going to flatten here.  IMO of course, but it's a near certainty.

Only 2 countries have succeeded in flattening the curve, and our elected leaders are not doing the only things that have been proven to work so far.

 

[Capella]

It is unacceptable and outrageous.

Our elected leaders have failed us terribly.

As a country we failed by electing them. 

 

[Sand]

The current numbers where?

Read this.   Then read this, particularly the part about the estimate on how many infections we currently have in the US.

We look to be past the point of containment.  Social distancing may well crunch the curve, but we'll still end up with about half the population exposed.   Our best hope  is that we warm up quick and end up on the warm country line instead of the regular exponential line.

 

[dgreen]

How many fantasy football teams will be called Flatten the Curve next year? I mean, if there’s a season, of course. 

 

[Slapdash]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say when people die they are getting tested for COVID19. If not, we are more inept that I could even imagine.

If testing is really being constrained, not sure how safe that assumption is.  I also do not know either way on what is happening.

 

[NotSmart]

Testing question:

If you get tested for Covid-19, and have already had the virus in the past, do you get that info provided to you in the test results?

 

[Capella]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say when people die they are getting tested for COVID19. If not, we are more inept that I could even imagine.

As of a few days ago there was almost zero testing. No chance in hell they were using a valuable test on a dead body. Zero chance. 

 

[culdeus]

Testing question:

If you get tested for Covid-19, and have already had the virus in the past, do you get that info provided to you in the test results?

Well.  It does seem that you can test positive two weeks after being symptomatic.  Not sure if that is your exact question