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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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4 minutes ago, Chemical X said:

Thailand?  Self quarantine her for 15 months.

Way ahead of you. Staying in a fully stocked in-law apartment apart from anyone else for two weeks. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dgreen said:

For a while, we've been saying "We need to test!" And that's true. But at what point do we say "We are testing!" I believe there were over 60,000 tests yesterday. Does that qualify as "We are testing"?

 

It sounds like that's a start. As of March 20th, S. Korea was testing 6148 people per million per day. For us, that would mean around 60,000 tests per day.

The issue is more time. SK has been at an incredibly high testing rate for weeks, and we're just now getting there.

Given our incredibly late start, I'd think we're going to need far surpass their peak testing rate. Plus they have apps to help with contact tracing that we could never use.

Edited by pollardsvision
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Posted (edited)

14 deaths in the U.S. yesterday from COVID-19. The average number of people in the U.S. that die per day from falling down stairs is 33. Sounds good for COVID-19, right? That number stays low only if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That number also might be helped by effective current treatment with the drugs put in use in the past week. If we can supply hospitals with what they need, we can get ahead of this.

 

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Everyone, please drop this line of arguing. We need to help each other here. Thanks.

I'm only just seeing this admonition now, Joe ... I'm a few pages behind. I am hopeful that nothing I've posted over the last hour or so is considered out of line.

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10 minutes ago, tamales said:

I think the plan is to ramp up beds, equipment, ventilators to meet capacity and once that is done it's time to get back to work. 

That makes sense and is the concept discussed in The Hammer and the Dance.  We need to prep people for the dance, but if we start dancing too soon we'll be truly F@#$ed

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1 hour ago, prosopis said:

Anymore word on checks being mailed? I feel selfish wondering but we are going to be in big trouble here real soon if I don't pull in some cash soon. I always wanted to have some kind of financial safety net but it just was not in the cards for us. Dave Ramsey always made it sound so easy.

Preach.

What did most financially smart people do? Figure out a way to make mad bank throughout their 20s while living under an overpass?

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3 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

That makes sense and is the concept discussed in The Hammer and the Dance.  We need to prep people for the dance, but if we start dancing too soon we'll be truly F@#$ed

Agreed. Im not gonna guess when that date is and it's probably different for every city/ state. 

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1 hour ago, Cjw_55106 said:
1 hour ago, dgreen said:

For a while, we've been saying "We need to test!" And that's true. But at what point do we say "We are testing!" I believe there were over 60,000 tests yesterday. Does that qualify as "We are testing"?

Personally, I consider "we are testing" when anyone with symptoms can walk in and get a test. Just my opinion. 

Plus representative cross-section sampling (e.g. finding estimated background infection rates for "apparent healthies", "light symptoms", "severe symptoms", etc.)

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4 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

14 deaths in the U.S. yesterday from COVID-19. The average number of people in the U.S. that die per day from falling down stairs is 33. Sounds good for COVID-19, right? That number stays low only if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That number also might be helped by effective current treatment with the drugs put in use in the past week. If we can supply hospitals with what they need, we can get ahead of this.

 

I think you dropped a zero, as I'm seeing 140.  How many people in Italy died yesterday from Covid?  Besides the fact that they went into a full-country quarantine 2 weeks ago and are a fraction of the size of the US, what's makes them different from us.  Why did EVERY other country act aggressively in ways the US in considering abandoning?  What makes us so unique?

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2 minutes ago, tamales said:

Agreed. Im not gonna guess when that date is and it's probably different for every city/ state. 

Totally agree.  The US is more like Europe in total than it is like any individual country within Europe.  I also suspect that we have larger pockets of little population density than most/any European country.  That said, know is NOT teh time to lose our nerve in places where we are still on the up slope of the curve (NYC, CA, New Orleans, etc.)

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4 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

I think you dropped a zero, as I'm seeing 140.  How many people in Italy died yesterday from Covid?  Besides the fact that they went into a full-country quarantine 2 weeks ago and are a fraction of the size of the US, what's makes them different from us.  Why did EVERY other country act aggressively in ways the US in considering abandoning?  What makes us so unique?

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Just got back from Publix and i feel like i hit the lottery. i found milk AND ground beef.
Not MegaMillions though. Still no paper products in sight.

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58 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

See, these are the things that really chap me during these times. Toilet paper distribution. You see videos of store workers just rolling out a pallet of toilet paper amid the masses.

Why can't they just have the toilet paper in the back somewhere, like where those swinging doors are near the back of the store. Position a table in front of that door and have people line up for one pack of toilet paper. Or two. Whatever the size is. Maybe each shopper gets 8 rolls of toilet paper per visit. Whatever.

So simple.

This is a good example of mental inflexibility -- something that frequently gets in the way of problem-solving. They are putting out the TP the same way as always because ... "um, that's how we've always done it?"

New circumstances, new protocols. Significant inertia is inherent in human behavior.

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48 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

 

 

It's possible that neither of you can even comprehend the emotions that Schindler felt. That makes me sad for both of you. 

Of course I can.  I just live in the real world and am realistic this isn't going to happen.  It's truly a terrible situation but pipe dreams like yours isn't going to solve anything.

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9 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Plus representative cross-section sampling (e.g. finding estimated background infection rates for "apparent healthies", "light symptoms", "severe symptoms", etc.)

So I understand you correctly, you are saying that seeing good data on those examples is something that would tell you that we are testing enough? If we could break down the "positives" into multiple categories? Or am I misunderstanding you?

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24 minutes ago, tamales said:

I think the plan is to ramp up beds, equipment, ventilators to meet capacity and once that is done it's time to get back to work. 

16 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

14 deaths in the U.S. yesterday from COVID-19. The average number of people in the U.S. that die per day from falling down stairs is 33. Sounds good for COVID-19, right? That number stays low only if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That number also might be helped by effective current treatment with the drugs put in use in the past week. If we can supply hospitals with what they need, we can get ahead of this.

 

I hear that argument and it sounds hopeful but the numbers are so daunting and I'm afraid we are no where near capable of producing the PPE and especially ventilators needed in such a short time. By magnitudes. I'm hanging my hopes on the anti-viral or some other miracle drug that already exists to save lives. This all suuuuuuuuuucks.

 

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From Cuomo's presser, the ventilator shortage is the critical bottleneck now. He says NY needs 30,000, FEMA is going to send 400. Not a typo.

Seriously, wtf? This is what the defense act is for, instead the Feds opted for volunteerism. Companies aren't going to say "oh sure I'll volunteer to reconfigure my entire manufacturing process". 

The ventilator shortage is going to lead to more deaths than we can contemplate. This needs to happen.

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2 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

 

I think we will. Call me delusional, hopeful, optimistic, whatever and I know there is little room for optimism in this thread as anyone who expresses any gets attacked but as a nation we have overcome so much diversity in our history. I think it's in our DNA. We are the best nation in the world for a reason and we always find a way. 

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23 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

14 deaths in the U.S. yesterday from COVID-19. The average number of people in the U.S. that die per day from falling down stairs is 33. Sounds good for COVID-19, right? That number stays low only if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That number also might be helped by effective current treatment with the drugs put in use in the past week. If we can supply hospitals with what they need, we can get ahead of this.

 

There were 140 deaths yesterday in the usa

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23 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

14 deaths in the U.S. yesterday from COVID-19. The average number of people in the U.S. that die per day from falling down stairs is 33. Sounds good for COVID-19, right? That number stays low only if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That number also might be helped by effective current treatment with the drugs put in use in the past week. If we can supply hospitals with what they need, we can get ahead of this.

 

Serious questions... what effective treatments are you referring to, and what drugs have been put in use?

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I just cancelled a trip to NYC for the wife and I on April 17-23 for her borthday.   We were flying into LaGuardia, staying at the Marriot in Times Square, going to a couple Broadway shows, hit the tourists sites,  go shopping and obviously eat at NYC restaurants.   

If NYC reopens tomorrow the odds of us rescheduling are zero even though the Broadway tickets are not refundable if they don't cancel so I would be eating well over $2,000.    The point is that things are not going back to normal for a while no matter what the president or governor say about getting back to work.

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10 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

Just got back from Publix and i feel like i hit the lottery. i found milk AND ground beef.
Not MegaMillions though. Still no paper products in sight.

So, here's why I am so down on society and the "smarts" of this country.  My local grocery store is a Harris Teeter, but we have a zillion markets down here.  They were wiped out of meats, only ground sausage and some random birds I am not familiar with........some people were distraught, especially about the ground beef.  However, in the same shopping center is a small local store called "The Butcher's Market".  I left HT and went to the BM and found freshly ground 93/7 at 6.99/lb.  Piles of chicken and other meats.  Produce, etc.  At HT, lots of canned beans were sold out, but the dried versions were not touched. 

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5 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

From Cuomo's presser, the ventilator shortage is the critical bottleneck now. He says NY needs 30,000, FEMA is going to send 400. Not a typo.

Seriously, wtf? This is what the defense act is for, instead the Feds opted for volunteerism. Companies aren't going to say "oh sure I'll volunteer to reconfigure my entire manufacturing process". 

The ventilator shortage is going to lead to more deaths than we can contemplate. This needs to happen.

My question is how would the Defense Production Act (and it forcing companies who haven't started manufacturing ventilators to begin making them), churn out ventilators faster than the companies who started on their own voluntarily and already are underway with their manufacturing?

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 University in town  (Liberty) just welcomed students back from spring break. Not all, just those that wanted to. Around 1000, it sounds like. Classes online, but a bunch of students  coming back from other places hanging out in dorms unnecessarily.

Oh, our city has about 10 ventilators.

 

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1 minute ago, pollardsvision said:

 University in town  (Liberty) just welcomed students back from spring break. Not all, just those that wanted to. Around 1000, it sounds like. Classes online, but a bunch of students  coming back from other places hanging out in dorms unnecessarily.

Oh, our city has about 10 ventilators.

 

The people in charge should all be fired

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6 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I just cancelled a trip to NYC for the wife and I on April 17-23 for her borthday.   We were flying into LaGuardia, staying at the Marriot in Times Square, going to a couple Broadway shows, hit the tourists sites,  go shopping and obviously eat at NYC restaurants.   

If NYC reopens tomorrow the odds of us rescheduling are zero even though the Broadway tickets are not refundable if they don't cancel so I would be eating well over $2,000.    The point is that things are not going back to normal for a while no matter what the president or governor say about getting back to work.

Schools are closed until april 20. That's the MINIMUM date when things start opening up. If I had to take a wild guess I'd say we are looking at mid- May in NYC for SOME things opening back up. 

Hotels id say youre looking at July

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5 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I just cancelled a trip to NYC for the wife and I on April 17-23 for her borthday.   We were flying into LaGuardia, staying at the Marriot in Times Square, going to a couple Broadway shows, hit the tourists sites,  go shopping and obviously eat at NYC restaurants.   

If NYC reopens tomorrow the odds of us rescheduling are zero even though the Broadway tickets are not refundable if they don't cancel so I would be eating well over $2,000.    The point is that things are not going back to normal for a while no matter what the president or governor say about getting back to work.

I have a cruise sailing from Italy in September.  Double whammy.  Even if this gets the all clear, say July, do you think I would still be going?  I may give things at least a year to clear, just to be sure.  I am likely not alone.  We may head back to work, but I think we may be talking about a new normal going forward.  Sit in a stadium with 70,000 other people?  Take a cruise?  Stay in a hotel?  Travel to Europe?  I suppose it happens again at some point, life will go on, but when will we all feel truly comfortable that this wont restart at some point after remission?

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Serious questions... what effective treatments are you referring to, and what drugs have been put in use?

I've already seen interviews and read about patients who were given hydroxychloroquine (or similar drugs and pairings) either at their own request to their doctor or by the urging of their doctor as a last ditch when things were quite dire, who began feeling better within 24 hours and now have fully recovered. It's early but this stuff might actually keep working as it has in China, South Korea, and other places such as in Europe. There's always the possibility of mutations but maybe if we're lucky as a species it will continue to help with managing this thing.

Here's just one anecdotal report of the drug working at a very critical stage...

https://fox6now.com/2020/03/22/man-with-coronavirus-who-works-in-la-says-drug-used-to-treat-malaria-saved-my-life/

Quote

 

A dear friend immediately sent him a recent article about hydroxychloroquine, an old anti-malaria medicine proven successful to treat COVID-19 patients overseas, and insisted he take the drug.

Giardinieri reached out to an infectious disease doctor.

“He gave me all the reasons why I would probably not want to try it because there are no trials,” said Giardinieri. “There’s no testing. It was not something that was approved, and I said, ‘Look, I don’t know if I’m going to make it until the morning,’ because at that point, I really thought I was coming to the end because I couldn’t breathe anymore. He agreed, and authorized the use of it, and 30 minutes later, the nurse gave it to me.”

Giardinieri described what happened next. An hour after an IV with the medicine, he said his heart felt like it was beating out of his chest.

“They had to come in, and get me calmed down, and take care of me,” said Giardinieri. “I had another episode about two hours later, where I just got to the point where I couldn’t breathe, and my heart was pounding again, so they gave me some Benadryl through the system, and something else. I’m not sure what it was. It allowed me to go to sleep, and when I woke up at exactly 4:45 in the morning, I woke up like nothing ever happened.”

 

 

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, tamales said:

I think we will. Call me delusional, hopeful, optimistic, whatever and I know there is little room for optimism in this thread as anyone who expresses any gets attacked but as a nation we have overcome so much diversity in our history. I think it's in our DNA. We are the best nation in the world for a reason and we always find a way. 

This is what I mean when I say American exceptionalism as a national ethos will be put to the test.  We sincerely believe, in aggregate, that we're different from other people in the world because of our birth place.  That we're the one country in the world whose intensive care potential won't be overwhelmed by orders of magnitude at the apex of a pandemic if too little social restraint is put in place.  That we alone won't be bound by the warnings of the CDC, WHO, et al that treatment and prevention are far from around the corner.  That the mortality rates we saw in China only hold for so long as every person who turns critical (plus all the day-to-day non-C19 criticals) has adequate facilities.

My money's on science, math, and biology.  But I sincerely hope wishful thinking turns out to be right this time.

Edited by GawainB
sp.
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7 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

My question is how would the Defense Production Act (and it forcing companies who haven't started manufacturing ventilators to begin making them), churn out ventilators faster than the companies who started on their own voluntarily and already are underway with their manufacturing?

Ford said this morning that it would take until June to have full production of ventilators.

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1 hour ago, tamales said:

If 1m people die from this over the next year, how will that hurt the economy more than what we are doing now? I'm not suggesting we should value the economy over lives, just asking the question. Because I keep seeing people say this and I just don't see how losing 0.3% of our population kills our economy.

I think if a million people are dying from this it will shut down our economy anyway.  Who is going out and doing economic activity in that situation.  I sure as hell am sitting tight.  So think we get the economic damage either way.  However, we manage to save a lot of lives from Covid as well as other illnesses since the healthcare system won't collapse.  

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7 minutes ago, pollardsvision said:

 University in town  (Liberty) just welcomed students back from spring break. Not all, just those that wanted to. Around 1000, it sounds like. Classes online, but a bunch of students  coming back from other places hanging out in dorms unnecessarily.

Oh, our city has about 10 ventilators.

 

I’m shocked that Liberty U isn’t following the advice of experts.

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1 minute ago, bcat01 said:

Ford said this morning that it would take until June to have full production of ventilators.

It’s cool to see companies step up.  But they need to remove the bureaucracy and let the engineers get creative.   We don’t have time to wait until June.

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1 minute ago, bcat01 said:

Ford said this morning that it would take until June to have full production of ventilators.

Right, so the companies that came forward on their own and already have this underway look like much better hope than anything that would be mandated by the DPA.

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9 minutes ago, dgreen said:
20 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Plus representative cross-section sampling (e.g. finding estimated background infection rates for "apparent healthies", "light symptoms", "severe symptoms", etc.)

So I understand you correctly, you are saying that seeing good data on those examples is something that would tell you that we are testing enough? If we could break down the "positives" into multiple categories? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Representative cross-section sampling would be a way to estimate various rates without having to do comprehensive testing of any and all COVID patients and their contacts. A hypothetical sampling study might be like so (recommended #s to test are spitballed):

- Testing 2,000 - 5,000 random healthy folks across the U.S. who report no symptoms and no known contacts with a COVID case. See how many of them test positive for COVID. 

- Testing 2,000 - 5,000 random folks across the U.S. who report to selected urgent-care facilities/private-care clinics with mild cold/flu symptoms and no known contacts with a COVID case. See how many of them test positive for COVID. 

- Testing 2,000 - 5,000 random folks across the U.S. who report to selected urgent-care facilities/private-care clinics with moderate-to-severe cold/flu symptoms and no known contacts with a COVID case. See how many of them test positive for COVID. 

- Testing 2,000 - 5,000 random folks across the U.S. who present to selected ERs with severe cold/flu symptoms (with complications) and no known contacts with a COVID case. See how many of them test positive for COVID. 

...

The idea is to get a background number -- how much COVID is "running wild" undetected? Think of it kind of like testing for background radiation: is a given site a specific radiation hazard since we've detected radiation there? The answer: maybe -- but we only know for sure if we compare to background radiation readings of similar sites nearby.

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2 hours ago, eoMMan said:

more people not going to the hospital for other illnesses, etc. that will result in whole lot of deaths.  

Why will they not go the hospital?  And is it entirely possible they still wont go in the foreseeable future if even you open up shops?

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9 minutes ago, Chemical X said:

I have a cruise sailing from Italy in September.  Double whammy.  Even if this gets the all clear, say July, do you think I would still be going?  I may give things at least a year to clear, just to be sure.  I am likely not alone.  We may head back to work, but I think we may be talking about a new normal going forward.  Sit in a stadium with 70,000 other people?  Take a cruise?  Stay in a hotel?  Travel to Europe?  I suppose it happens again at some point, life will go on, but when will we all feel truly comfortable that this wont restart at some point after remission?

My wife was born and raised in Poland.  We go there annually to visit her family and friends.  Assuming everything progresses as we expect, I'd feel comfortable going this fall.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

I've already seen interviews and read about patients who were given hydroxychloroquine (or similar drugs and pairings) either at their own request to their doctor or by the urging of their doctor as a last ditch when things were quite dire, who began feeling better within 24 hours and now have fully recovered. It's early but this stuff might actually keep working as it has in China, South Korea, and other places such as in Europe. There's always the possibility of mutations but maybe if we're lucky as a species it will continue to help with managing this thing.

For the record, the anecdotal data does not at all mean that it is effective. It is way too premature to be touting this as effective. I am fine with “experimental” or “for compassionate use”, but “effective” is pretty negligent IMHO. 

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7 minutes ago, Chemical X said:

So, here's why I am so down on society and the "smarts" of this country.  My local grocery store is a Harris Teeter, but we have a zillion markets down here.  They were wiped out of meats, only ground sausage and some random birds I am not familiar with........some people were distraught, especially about the ground beef.  However, in the same shopping center is a small local store called "The Butcher's Market".  I left HT and went to the BM and found freshly ground 93/7 at 6.99/lb.  Piles of chicken and other meats.  Produce, etc.  At HT, lots of canned beans were sold out, but the dried versions were not touched. 

We have a butcher shop like 2 miles from Publix, yet I saw the same thing at Publix with some guy explaining to his wife that he could use that meat grinder she scolded him about buying to grind up a couple of sirloins. Sure, that works too. Thought about telling him about the butcher shop, but decided to let him get one up on his wife instead.

No eggs to be found there. The cashier told me I had to get there before 8 and insinuated every morning the same people come to get their daily allotment of 2 cartons of eggs per person... checkout?... whatever. Found eggs at Target later. 

No paper products of course. Also, weirdly, hardly any laundry detergent there either. Maybe like 5 small Tide ones. Again, Target had plenty. 

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We have a trip to Canada in July that at this point is probably 50-50.   We also have a Disney trip in September that I think has an 80% chance of happening

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55 minutes ago, Doug B said:

@CurlyNight, do you see either of these blue logos on the front door of your credit union locations? Or on their website?

If so, you can perform transactions for your credit union at any branch of any credit union that also displays those logos. Around here, credit unions that don't belong to these shared-branch networks seem not to exist. Maybe that's not true all over the U.S., though.

My mom found a coop shared bank Qualstar in Kent WA. She deposited to my account there and it worked.

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1 minute ago, gruecd said:

My wife was born and raised in Poland.  We go there annually to visit her family and friends.  Assuming everything progresses as we expect, I'd feel comfortable going this fall.

Let me know how that goes.......I can't gamble $4k plus and our health.

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This article includes the Florida man I linked earlier who recovered after reaching a critical state as well as others who recovered after being given hydroxychloroquine. It also talks about it's use in other countries as well as the active studies...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8143953/People-say-anti-malaria-drug-helped-recover-COVID-19.html

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2 hours ago, CurlyNight said:

My parents are older. Not going to happen. And my bank is a credit union with not many sister banks outside the Bay Area.

YMMV. My dad of 88 can figure it out just fine

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Wow, you guys travelling this Summer and Fall are much more optimistic than I am.

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21 minutes ago, tamales said:

I think we will. Call me delusional, hopeful, optimistic, whatever and I know there is little room for optimism in this thread as anyone who expresses any gets attacked but as a nation we have overcome so much diversity in our history. I think it's in our DNA. We are the best nation in the world for a reason and we always find a way. 

You are correct on optimists getting attacked. It's as if they prefer to think the worst. I didnt realize there were so many scientists, doctors, chemists, etc that posted in these forums who apparently know everything. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Tom Skerritt said:

For the record, the anecdotal data does not at all mean that it is effective. It is way too premature to be touting this as effective. I am fine with “experimental” or “for compassionate use”, but “effective” is pretty negligent IMHO. 

As I said, we can hope. It's worked on a lot of people. No reason to "poo poo" it. The next step would be building the numbers and date to the point its use becomes official protocol as it has in China and South Korea. No one is saying "we've found the cure, carry on with normal everyday life people!" Short of anyone saying that, nothing negligent is going on.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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