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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

parasaurolophus said:
Where was this article? 
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Medical professionals around the US told BuzzFeed News that the official numbers of people who have died of COVID-19 are not consistent with the number of deaths they’re seeing on the front lines.

In some cases, it’s a lag in reporting, caused by delays and possible breakdowns in logging positive tests and making them public. In other, more troubling, cases, medical experts told BuzzFeed News they think it’s because people are not being tested before or after they die.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

 
beer 30 said:
Medical professionals around the US told BuzzFeed News that the official numbers of people who have died of COVID-19 are not consistent with the number of deaths they’re seeing on the front lines.

In some cases, it’s a lag in reporting, caused by delays and possible breakdowns in logging positive tests and making them public. In other, more troubling, cases, medical experts told BuzzFeed News they think it’s because people are not being tested before or after they die.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
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This is very different. One unnamed ER doctor speaking about an unnamed county(that presumably isnt his own hospital otherwise the comment makes no sense) in a buzzfeed article is not the same as "health care officials".

Its more akin to nancy on facebook. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
I'm not sure about everywhere (it could vary by state?), but here in Louisiana, cases are attributed to the residence of the patient. We had a death here locally last week, but the patient was from another parish so it was attributed to that parish. We also had a confirmed case locally that was of a patient from Mississippi, so that case wasn't even contributed to our state. So yeah, the numbers can definitely be skewed a bit if that's how all states are doing it (maybe that's mandated from Feds, IDK?)
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I don't really know, but I had the idea that this kind of attribution allowed New Orleans to claim "No COVID cases!" early on when they were still thinking about protecting the tourism industry. As you know, the first case detected was a Jefferson Parish resident hospitalized a few miles away in New Orleans proper. At the time, state Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser and New Orleans Mayor Latoya Cantrell were still banging the "Safe to visit New Orleans!" drum.

 
beer 30 said:
Medical professionals around the US told BuzzFeed News that the official numbers of people who have died of COVID-19 are not consistent with the number of deaths they’re seeing on the front lines.

In some cases, it’s a lag in reporting, caused by delays and possible breakdowns in logging positive tests and making them public. In other, more troubling, cases, medical experts told BuzzFeed News they think it’s because people are not being tested before or after they die.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
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This was long rumored to be the case in China.  Many "reports" said there were far more bodies than were being officially reported.

 
When everyone is in lockdown, the spread of the virus slows. The numbers will reflect that. 

And in a few weeks the numbers will reflect what happens after the lockdown ends. If the virus wasn't eradicated, a cure found, a vaccine produced, or heard immunity achieved, then the peak is still in the future, not the past. 

 
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beer 30 said:
I read an article this morning that said health care officials fear the number of deaths related to COVID-19 is much higher because we aren't testing the dead due to a number of issues, lack of tests being one of them. 
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Sampling wouldn't give 100% perfect numbers, but it would give health providers and researchers something at least halfway concrete to worth with.

 
pollardsvision said:
I agree.

Not that any state is testing at the levels we need to get to yet, but WA has done 35,000 tests. NJ has done 15,000 (and has 2,000 more confirmed cases). All the states near WA in confirmed cases have done around 15-20,000 tests.

I'm sure it's all statistical noise, and I was just wondering (hoping) if  maybe they are doing something well that could be replicated.
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Can't find the page I saw it on now, but earlier this morning saw a "number of infections by USA by county" map, and there were some counties that were in the maximum category (100+ cases or whatever the demo was), and right next door to that county, a bordering county but across a state line, had 0 cases reported. They need to add a number of tests administered number to those type maps for them to be more meaningful stats. 

 
Doug B said:
Sampling wouldn't give 100% perfect numbers, but it would give health providers and researchers something at least halfway concrete to worth with.
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 I wonder if there is something to the thought that we aren't doing it because we don't want to know what the real number is because it would incite even more panic than we are already seeing across the country?  :tinfoilhat:

 
parasaurolophus said:
This is very different. One unnamed ER doctor speaking about an unnamed county(that presumably isnt his own hospital otherwise the comment makes no sense) in a buzzfeed article is not the same as "health care officials".

Its more akin to nancy on facebook. 
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Dr Amy Acton, Director of Health for the Ohio Department of Health, has been saying for weeks that the official numbers are under-reported, and we should assume the spread and impact of the virus is greater than the official numbers. 

 
shader said:
We have a big all hands meeting right now.  My company has a "coronavirus" expert giving a presentation right now. He's literally telling the company that due to social distancing, Italy has peaked and their numbers are coming down.  But he's doing it in a way that really confuses people (that don't follow this closely).

Italy has not peaked.  They are nowhere near where their peak could be.  Italy has temporarily seen their cases per day drop.  Yes, it's slightly good news, but they still have major issues and are getting hammered in a way that will not see the impact to their medical industry slow down anytime soon.

This idea that "Italy has turned the corner" is something that it appears industry is running with, even though at best, they've only slowed down the explosive growth.  Let's hope today's numbers from Italy continue to support this trend.
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I don't know official numbers but I've been following the wiki pages for each country since the beginning and Italy's daily % of new cases has been in the single digits for 3 days now and continues to drop. Seems to me that they've past the peak.

eta: percentage not total number

 
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jamny said:
I don't know official numbers but I've been following the wiki pages for each country since the beginning and Italy's daily # of new cases has been in the single digits for 3 days now and continues to drop. Seems to me that they've past the peak.
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6 out of the last 7 days they've had increases of 5,000 per day.  Yes, their exponential growth obviously slowed down, but each day is a new peak.  To say a country is "past the peak", you have to be clear on what that peak is. Peak rate of growth?  Sure, for now they are past that.  Peak cases?  Obviously not.  That number is still rising significantly each day.

 
I arranged for 2 small tool shop companies I know to make 2  parts needed for vents to supply Ford and GM.   The guys are working 20 hours a day.  I did not charge any commission as the middle man even though I could haver cleaned up..  Just felt now is not the time.  The small shops are hurting bad and they need the work so let them keep whatever they can.  Even they are only charging a small amount over cost.  Nice to see the almighty dollar is not ruling in this case.  although I am sure some people will get rich off of this.  

 
jamny said:
I don't know official numbers but I've been following the wiki pages for each country since the beginning and Italy's daily # of new cases has been in the single digits for 3 days now and continues to drop. Seems to me that they've past the peak.
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Italy had 5000+ new cases yesterday?

 
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Cjw_55106 said:
So you really have no data, you just think its more unsafe than say, Walmart. Got it. 
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You seriously want me to provide you with data on why flying all over the country is bad for the spread of a disease? And I don't recall saying anything about Walmart.  No idea where you're going with that.

 
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shader said:
You seriously want me to provide you with data on why flying all over the country is bad for the spread of a disease? 
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That wasnt what was stated. He said its probably safer than a lot of the places people are going.....and its likely he's correct. 

 
Cjw_55106 said:
That wasnt what was stated. He said its probably safer than a lot of the places people are going.....and its likely he's correct. 
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Relatively close contact with recirculated air in a confined space for an extended period of time in an area that is difficult to fully clean?  In addition to processes and procedures in the airport related to waiting/security/boarding/etc.? 

No, I'll certainly be taking my chances at Wal-Mart with good hygiene. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
Pneumonia/respiratory disease are common causes of death. Pandemic, easily transmissible pneumonia without treatment options is not. Until now. Running out of PPE is an unprecedented concern. So are the prospects of insufficient ventilators/ICU beds and maintaining staffing if/when healthcare providers get sick. 

I’m shocked any ER doctor, intensivist, hospitalist, primary care provider, ID, infection control personnel or acute care nurse would take this lightly. I’ve been in healthcare over two decades and have never seen anything cause as much concern - HIV was the closest, but its trajectory was far less rapid.
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You are hell bent against the idea that my docs and hospital staff are not as concerned as you are... don't know what more to say. 

I can do the NUH UH, UH HUH thing over and over though if you like.  I don't have much else to do right now.

 
gianmarco said:
Relatively close contact with recirculated air in a confined space for an extended period of time in an area that is difficult to fully clean?  In addition to processes and procedures in the airport related to waiting/security/boarding/etc.? 

No, I'll certainly be taking my chances at Wal-Mart with good hygiene. 
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Fair enough, but you (as most people) make assumptions about the quality of airplane air and really dont know anything about it. 

 
Politician Spock said:
Dr Amy Acton, Director of Health for the Ohio Department of Health, has been saying for weeks that the official numbers are under-reported, and we should assume the spread and impact of the virus is greater than the official numbers. 
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She said that for deaths? I thought she said cases.

I keep seeing media reports of people that die of covid 19 that turn out to be false. So i dont think we have any kind of underreported issue yet at least not for deaths. 

 
One aspect upon reading the responses is that this seems to be regionally driven in terms of sentiment. People in NY are showing a high degree of concern, fear and the numbers in NY are staggering right now. 

On the other hand, AZ for example seems to have a much, much lower number total. If they do the right thing with extreme social distancing for 8-12 weeks, testing, isolating positive cases and tracing contacts for further isolation they could literally beat this thing (have a South Korea type outcome).

This is a regional issue in some ways. The US is not a region. The states are a region each. So a poster from AZ may be having a way different experience than a poster from NY. 

 
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside Elmhurst Hospital in Queens to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, NYC's public hospital system said 13 people at Elmhurst had died.

There are five refrigerated trucks and numerous tents setup outside of Bellevue Hospital’s (Manhattan) temporary morgue.

 
gianmarco said:
Relatively close contact with recirculated air in a confined space for an extended period of time in an area that is difficult to fully clean?  In addition to processes and procedures in the airport related to waiting/security/boarding/etc.? 

No, I'll certainly be taking my chances at Wal-Mart with good hygiene. 
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THIS is my workplace. :(

 
shader said:
This was long rumored to be the case in China.  Many "reports" said there were far more bodies than were being officially reported.
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And it makes sense given the chaotic nature of this thing. Testing the dead, while helpful, probably isn't on the radar for the folks that are trying to save the living and probably not a volunteers to go wade into the morgue pulling swabs.

 
matuski said:
You are hell bent against the idea that my docs and hospital staff are not as concerned as you are... don't know what more to say. 

I can do the NUH UH, UH HUH thing over and over though if you like.  I don't have much else to do right now.
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I'm not hell bent on anything. I'm reacting to what you stated pages ago. 

TBH, I expected you to back down on your stance, and you have to some extent. But I still can't reconcile your reality with mine.

And the reality of nearly every other healthcare worker with whom I've spoken, read about, etc.

Keep fighting for what you believe is right, I guess.

 
gianmarco said:
Relatively close contact with recirculated air in a confined space for an extended period of time in an area that is difficult to fully clean?  In addition to processes and procedures in the airport related to waiting/security/boarding/etc.? 

No, I'll certainly be taking my chances at Wal-Mart with good hygiene. 
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The good news here is you will really stand out.

 
jamny said:
I don't know official numbers but I've been following the wiki pages for each country since the beginning and Italy's daily # of new cases has been in the single digits for 3 days now and continues to drop. Seems to me that they've past the peak.
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I'm behind roughly a page in this thread ... but this post made me double-take. "~5,000 new cases per day" versus "single-digit new cases for three days now"? What's accounting for discrepancies in information like this?

 
Doug B said:
I'm behind roughly a page in this thread ... but this post made me double-take. "~5,000 new cases per day" versus "single-digit new cases for three days now"? What's accounting for discrepancies in information like this?
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Depends on what point you are trying to argue in favor, obviously.

 
Ksquared said:
I believe I read (info overload which many of us are experiencing following this) that American Airlines started this last weekend to go with 95% of their flights are freight only, no passengers.   I follow airliners.net and one of the other big carriers was removing the back half of the seats in their planes to put freight in.

I am sure other airlines are doing this, they have to do something to try to survive.  You cannot have a 90% plus drop in revenue in a couple of weeks and expect to survive.
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From what I saw yesterday, American is only running 3 long-haul commercial routes at this time - Dallas-Tokyo, Dallas-London, and Miami-London.  So yeah, need to replace that revenue somehow.

 
Doug B said:
I'm behind roughly a page in this thread ... but this post made me double-take. "~5,000 new cases per day" versus "single-digit new cases for three days now"? What's accounting for discrepancies in information like this?
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I took it as the rate of new cases is flattening, not the total number of new cases is single digits. In other words, the rate of new cases is flattening, but the total number of new cases is still 5K per day. It looks like it was an unintentional wording issue. 

 
How confident are we in the accuracy of testing?  Anecdotally, an acquaintance was tested recently, after 1 week of symptoms.  Results took 5 days, during which time she continued to display moderate symptoms.  Result was negative, but doctor told her she remains presumed positive due to symptoms and that in his experience, the test results are approximately 40% false negative.

 
jamny said:
I don't know official numbers but I've been following the wiki pages for each country since the beginning and Italy's daily # of new cases has been in the single digits for 3 days now and continues to drop. Seems to me that they've past the peak.
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Jamny ... there's a big day-over-day bar graph near the top of the Wikipedia page "2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy". It shows new cases over the last three days as roughly 4,800 on 3/23, 5,200 on 3/24, and 5,200 again on 3/25. Where are your "single-digits per day figures" coming from?

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
One aspect upon reading the responses is that this seems to be regionally driven in terms of sentiment. People in NY are showing a high degree of concern, fear and the numbers in NY are staggering right now. 

On the other hand, AZ for example seems to have a much, much lower number total. If they do the right thing with extreme social distancing for 8-12 weeks, testing, isolating positive cases and tracing contacts for further isolation they could literally beat this thing (have a South Korea type outcome).

This is a regional issue in some ways. The US is not a region. The states are a region each. So a poster from AZ may be having a way different experience than a poster from NY. 
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True, but as long as people continue to travel, every region will get hit.

 
Rich Conway said:
How confident are we in the accuracy of testing?  Anecdotally, an acquaintance was tested recently, after 1 week of symptoms.  Results took 5 days, during which time she continued to display moderate symptoms.  Result was negative, but doctor told her she remains presumed positive due to symptoms and that in his experience, the test results are approximately 40% false negative.
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Read that article I posted at the top of the last page. It seems to claim they are pretty confident in accuracy due to the way the tests work. 

 
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jamny said:
Down from last weekend when they had 6000+
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Yes, but it's all in the wording.  I'm not piling on you here, I just hate hearing this because it gives people the wrong impression.  We wouldn't say a stock was down if it went up 1 dollar because it went up 2 dollars yesterday.  YEah, it didn't rise as much, but it still went up.

When people (as the guy at my company did this morning) say things like "Italy has peaked", it throws people off and gives the impression that things are starting to improve.  The only thing that's really happening is that the virus is slowing down it's exponential growth. That's still a good thing, but it's important to be accurate. 

 
Doug B said:
Jamny ... there's a big day-over-day bar graph near the top of the Wikipedia page "2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy". It shows new cases over the last three days as roughly 4,800 on 3/23, 5,200 on 3/24, and 5,200 again on 3/25. Where are your "single-digits per day figures" coming from?
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I corrected it above. I meant % of new cases. If you look at last weekend, they were near or above 6000 cases a day. Sorry to inject some possible optimism into the thread.

eta: and I used that graph for my comment.

 
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