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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

Reading that case, there is nothing requiring critical care, and the patient was likely going to do just as well at home as in the hospital. It actually reinforces the fact that young, healthy people should be ok. 


He required multiple days of supplemental oxygen. The discussion started around the fact that there may not be enough respirators available.

quote:

These radiographic findings coincided with a change in respiratory status starting on the evening of hospital day 5, when the patient’s oxygen saturation values as measured by pulse oximetry dropped to as low as 90% while he was breathing ambient air. On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen, delivered by nasal cannula at 2 liters per minute. Given the changing clinical presentation and concern about hospital-acquired pneumonia, treatment with vancomycin (a 1750-mg loading dose followed by 1 g administered intravenously every 8 hours) and cefepime (administered intravenously every 8 hours) was initiated.

 
He required multiple days of supplemental oxygen. The discussion started around the fact that there may not be enough respirators available.
Using supplemental oxygen is not the same as using a ventilator. You may have seen elderly folks with oxygen tanks and breathing masks in their homes. These days, the home oxygen appliances are more streamlined and look less like scuba gear.

Point being, in a situation where beds are scarce ... this thirty-something patient likely would be sent home with supplemental oxygen.

 
Using supplemental oxygen is not the same as using a ventilator. You may have seen elderly folks with oxygen tanks and breathing masks in their homes. These days, the home oxygen appliances are more streamlined and look less like scuba gear.

Point being, in a situation where beds are scarce ... this thirty-something patient likely would be sent home with supplemental oxygen.
And given a two minute instruction in how to use the blood saturation meter so they can be sure that the dosage is in order. Then two skype calls a day (or a reporting app) and Bob's yer uncle

 
Singapore, 5 days in a row with +1 or 0 cases. (0 today) On track to have single digits in treatment by mid next week.  

93 cases 0 dead.  

Not sure what they did, but can we copy that?
Their screening, contact tracing, surveillance, and ability to forcibly quarantine are top notch.  I don't think anywhere in the world can match them.

 
Using supplemental oxygen is not the same as using a ventilator. You may have seen elderly folks with oxygen tanks and breathing masks in their homes. These days, the home oxygen appliances are more streamlined and look less like scuba gear.

Point being, in a situation where beds are scarce ... this thirty-something patient likely would be sent home with supplemental oxygen.
I have read that about 15% of hospitalized patients develop ARDS. I am not a doctor but understand that if you develop ARDS you usually need a ventilator. 

Link I found on topic - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

 
I have read that about 15% of hospitalized patients develop ARDS. I am not a doctor but understand that if you develop ARDS you usually need a ventilator.
Hospitalized COVID patients, of hospitalized patients in general? Sorry, hadn't read you link yet.

 
Hospitalized COVID patients, of hospitalized patients in general? Sorry, hadn't read you link yet.
COVID. 

ETA - Link says it is even a higher percentage but who knows how up to date it is.  

 
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Here, let me post this from Redwes' last CDC link upthread -- let the MedicalGuys unpack it. This is specifically about coronavirus patient studies and was posted on February 12th. Given that date, I am assuming this is almost exclusively about patients in China, FWIW:

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developed in 17–29% of hospitalized patients, and secondary infection developed in 10%. [2,4] In one report, the median time from symptom onset to ARDS was 8 days.[3] Between 23–32% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support.[2–3] In one study, among critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit, 11% received high-flow oxygen therapy, 42% received noninvasive ventilation, and 47% received mechanical ventilation. [3] Some hospitalized patients have required advanced organ support with endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation (4–10%), and a small proportion have also been supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO, 3–5%).[3–4] Other reported complications include acute cardiac injury, arrhythmia, shock, and acute kidney injury. Among hospitalized patients with pneumonia, the case fatality proportion has been reported as 4–15%.[2–4] However, as this estimate includes only hospitalized patients it is biased upward.

 
So what's our supply of supplemental O2 setups? 
Check out the dive shop.

Seriously ... just because resources are necessarily finite doesn't mean every resource is a sure bottleneck. Still ... the truth is that not everyone is going to make it out intact.

I have a hard time abiding the "We don't have enough of X!" pronouncements. We triage, we add to resources where we can, we make do otherwise, and we stretch resources as far as possible. It's a real shame that not everyone can be promised tomorrow, but it's too early to give up now.

 
Was thinking a little earlier: One potential source of extra emergency ventilators (or really, any equipment of any kind) could be items that have recently been retired, but not yet discarded.

If St. Elegius has 3 ventilators that have been laid up for a few months by some minor malfunction, and the hospital went and replaced those three with new units but still has the three busted ones in storage or something ... in an emergency, maybe you turn over some stones in storage and see if those units can be refurbished.

As far as supplemental oxygen equipment ... at the convalescent home that my wife's grandfather stayed in during his final months, there was spare oxygen equipment all over the place. When a resident passed away, there seemed to be a long lag between storing away the deceased's equipment and getting that equipment re-assigned/re-purposed. Well, expedite that process. Make some calls. See who's got a half dozen oxygen sets laying around.

 
Here, let me post this from Redwes' last CDC link upthread -- let the MedicalGuys unpack it. This is specifically about coronavirus patient studies and was posted on February 12th. Given that date, I am assuming this is almost exclusively about patients in China, FWIW:
Some significant pieces of information missing from that copy and paste.

For starters - who are the patients being hospitalized and how many?

 
Some significant pieces of information missing from that copy and paste.

For starters - who are the patients being hospitalized and how many?
Not given on that CDC page, either. Would have to look at the cited studies and white papers -- those aren't given as links on the CDC page, unfortunately.

EDIT: The citations are all from February 7th or earlier. Actually, most are from late January. All the authors' names are Chinese. We know they are early Chinese patients, but not how many.

 
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Italian sports getting hit by this.

Soccer player tested positive in tuscany.

Two cyclists in the UAE Tour as well, leading them to shut the while thing down with two stages remaining. 

 
I thought the ARDS was THE complicating factor and risk?

ventilators are the absolute suck man
My understanding as well.  This info from CDC seems old but seems like a big chunk of individuals who ended up in the hospital got a ventilator.  My only real concern with this virus is our healthcare system being completely overwhelmed.  To be honest, it is currently stretched with flu season and a rush of respiratory illnesses that need ICU care/ventilators is something our system can't handle, which ends up with worse patient results for this illness as well as other illnesses.  

I think the real way to mitigate this is better testing and screening of the virus (which currently sucks here in the US from what I have read/heard) so they can slow the spread.  This gives the healthcare system the ability to get ready as best they can and also buys time for a vaccine.    

 
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I know this isn't the political forum, so I'll be careful here.....

I could see a scenario where with the proper direction, people band together, accept what's coming, work on solutions and beat this thing.  There's no panic, there's no run on grocery stores, solutions are provided through hard work and innovation, challenges are overcome, etc.

But then I remember that Trump and Pence are leading things.....
This has been “a thing” for a month.  What makes you think exactly that hasn’t happened?  What do you think could have or should have happened?

 
They do if you are sick and want to reduce the chance of you spreading illness to others. The flu is bad this year. 8-10 people being sick in a airport isn't out of the question. Doesn't have to mean they are wigging out.
Yep, good point. However the people in my office who have had the flu this season have been put flat on their asses. Both A and B. Nobody was traveling. Still possible though, so I hear ya.

 
Not sure if it was this thread or the stock thread but shoutout to @fantasycurse42 for his theory that trump put pence in front of this to be the fall guy and then to replace him later this year. That is absolutely brilliant and if it ends up being true I’ll have no choice but to respect Trump’s Makavelian ways at least a little bit. 

 
Not sure if it was this thread or the stock thread but shoutout to @fantasycurse42 for his theory that trump put pence in front of this to be the fall guy and then to replace him later this year. That is absolutely brilliant and if it ends up being true I’ll have no choice but to respect Trump’s Makavelian ways at least a little bit. 
Agree on it being an interesting move but doubt it would happen:

”To oust a vice president requires a vote of the House and two-thirds vote in the Senate”

 
Stocking up like it's hurricane season...just 4 months earlier...gotta put the food under lock&key so I can still post updates in the Otis weight loss thread.

 
My understanding as well.  This info from CDC seems old but seems like a big chunk of individuals who ended up in the hospital got a ventilator.  My only real concern with this virus is our healthcare system being completely overwhelmed.  To be honest, it is currently stretched with flu season and a rush of respiratory illnesses that need ICU care/ventilators is something our system can't handle, which ends up with worse patient results for this illness as well as other illnesses.  

I think the real way to mitigate this is better testing and screening of the virus (which currently sucks here in the US from what I have read/heard) so they can slow the spread.  This gives the healthcare system the ability to get ready as best they can and also buys time for a vaccine.    
The medcram link I posted was in a way depressing while being reassuring.   The testing is only catching  70 percent of the cases, and the full work up took a couple of days.  I’m sure that can be condensed and localized away from the cdc but it’s not apparently the simplest diagnostic.  They were having more reliable success with chest cat scans but I believe the guidance was a bit murky on how to interpret it.  It seems many will get it, and carry it, and most will recover and the best we can hope is a slowdown on the way to a vaccine or reliable treatment.  

 
The medcram link I posted was in a way depressing while being reassuring.   The testing is only catching  70 percent of the cases, and the full work up took a couple of days.  I’m sure that can be condensed and localized away from the cdc but it’s not apparently the simplest diagnostic.  They were having more reliable success with chest cat scans but I believe the guidance was a bit murky on how to interpret it.  It seems many will get it, and carry it, and most will recover and the best we can hope is a slowdown on the way to a vaccine or reliable treatment.  
Yup watched the video. My bigger compliant is who the CDC even allows to test, which they did expand this afternoon. 

 
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezer) and give a lot away to neighbors.
Another level 

 
Not sure if it was this thread or the stock thread but shoutout to @fantasycurse42 for his theory that trump put pence in front of this to be the fall guy and then to replace him later this year. That is absolutely brilliant and if it ends up being true I’ll have no choice but to respect Trump’s Makavelian ways at least a little bit. 
Honestly I'm one of the dumb guys here, and that was absolutely the first most obvious thing that occurred to me.  He's never put Pence in charge of ANYTHING before.  He's heard plenty of advice about how this is going to be a disaster to deal with.  Trump putting in a fall guy is something that seemed so clear.  And again, I never pick up on, well, anything. 

 
One thing regarding prepping as Mr Ham described:

This is beyond containment. There will be new COVID cases every year going forward. There’s really no more “wait it out for a few weeks” strategy available anymore.

 
Honestly I'm one of the dumb guys here, and that was absolutely the first most obvious thing that occurred to me.  He's never put Pence in charge of ANYTHING before.  He's heard plenty of advice about how this is going to be a disaster to deal with.  Trump putting in a fall guy is something that seemed so clear.  And again, I never pick up on, well, anything. 
I‘m dumber than you or my brain is fried this week as it never occurred to me until I read it here. 

 
So, a couple things.

First, good to see Ham is still a little batty.  At this rate, do you pull your kids from school until influenza is gone?  Odds are, what, like 1% higher this thing will kill you?  2%?  And probably only if you're 80 and have cancer?  Some next-level stuff going on in here.  It's like deciding to stop engaging with civilization because people are giving each other colds.  

Second, despite all that, I will say you guys are tempting me to buy some extra groceries.  Not because I think the world will shut down, but because I see what hysteria does to people, including based on even this thread alone, and it'll be a headache to deal with crap if they start closing schools and stores or whatever.  I still contend it's all an overreaction, but I don't disagree with the notion of "what's the harm in getting some extra canned goods, you'll eat them eventually either way."  

But yea.  This is cray cray overreaction. 

 
NYC has to have happened already.  Melting pot, so many tourists and travelers and transients, so many people in tight quarters.  Even if it hasn't tested, there are cases everywhere. The dude next to me on the subway today probably had it.  Is what it is.  If I am gonna worry about that crap I may as well be dead alraedy.

By the way, it would be totally different for me if this were some zombie thing or flesh eating thing that killed everyone or even 25% of the people who got it.  As best I can tell, this is only incrementally worse than the common flu or stomach bug.  That ain't moving the needle for this average joe. 

 
I have read that about 15% of hospitalized patients develop ARDS. I am not a doctor but understand that if you develop ARDS you usually need a ventilator. 

Link I found on topic - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html


Here, let me post this from Redwes' last CDC link upthread -- let the MedicalGuys unpack it. This is specifically about coronavirus patient studies and was posted on February 12th. Given that date, I am assuming this is almost exclusively about patients in China, FWIW:


I thought the ARDS was THE complicating factor and risk?

ventilators are the absolute suck man
ARDS is the bad, bad stuff. It's not a specific disease: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Basically, your lungs fill up with fluid and all your alveoli (where gas exchange happens) collapse. See several cases per year, especially during flu season. It requires a lot more than just ventilators, and people get all sorts of other stuff happening, as part of a cascade of the syndrome.

Curious to see how the percentage of COVID19 cases stacks up against normal influenza, taking age and comorbidities into account. 

 
I look at it differently. I don’t see much utility in waiting out 2 weeks for a virus that will take months to subside in any local outbreak. My goal is to wait out the first waves of saturated healthcare (God willing). Then, presumably, there would be a wartime effort to increase production of drugs, document treatment protocols, and eventually inoculate. My mindset is how to avoid getting in this calendar year. What happens next year is a different reality I can adjust to then. 
My concern for you, specifically, is that there’ll be no “safe” time for you guys to resume normal activity.

I don’t think guys like you and Icon are crazy or misguided. I just think you’re getting boxed in by circumstances.

 
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezers) and give a lot away to neighbors.
Yes, pet food! Especially since the pellets I feed are very high quality made at a family owned farm and sold only online.

There's nothing wrong with what you are doing. Having your own garden is better than the store stuff that God knows how long it's been since it left the farm. As for other supplies, you didn't buy anything that won't get used. 5 years ago I stocked up so I didn't have to leave my house during chemo and radiation being I was on my own. I still have Kleenex, paper towels and other necessities from that time that has no expiration and will get used. I always look for good deals online and when something I use shows up, I stock up. Stuff is expensive so I take advantage of great deals on stuff I need forever year round. Every dollar adds up for me.

 
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So, a couple things.

First, good to see Ham is still a little batty.  At this rate, do you pull your kids from school until influenza is gone?  Odds are, what, like 1% higher this thing will kill you?  2%?  And probably only if you're 80 and have cancer?  Some next-level stuff going on in here.  It's like deciding to stop engaging with civilization because people are giving each other colds.  

Second, despite all that, I will say you guys are tempting me to buy some extra groceries.  Not because I think the world will shut down, but because I see what hysteria does to people, including based on even this thread alone, and it'll be a headache to deal with crap if they start closing schools and stores or whatever.  I still contend it's all an overreaction, but I don't disagree with the notion of "what's the harm in getting some extra canned goods, you'll eat them eventually either way."  

But yea.  This is cray cray overreaction. 
Think Black Friday at Circuit City.

 
Thanks to this thread I am all set now...

47 LARGE cans of dinty Moore beef stew

33 gallons of spring water

100 oz sanitizer

:thumbup:

unfortunately no masks yet  :cry:

 
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezers) and give a lot away to neighbors.
Garlic....you need Garlic, jealous you can grow all this.  Props to the Ham.

 
Analysis of first 50k cases shows 5% mortality. This is because of state of healthcare in China, but what it reveals is that this disease sends too many people into respiratory distress. At some point the system gets overrun and drugs and hospital beds are in short supply. I may be batty, but remember I watched as my son say, “I feel dizzy,” and go into cardiac arrest and doctors worked on him for an hour until they called it. I will do anything to protect my kids. The low mortality rate relies on aggressive medical intervention. That is a gamble I want to avoid. 
Giving this history, I will never criticize you if you want to do this. 

 
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezers) and give a lot away to neighbors.


I don't mean this nearly as snarky as it sounds, but aren't you a big-wig jet-setter flying around the world selling ess to people?  Has (are you assuming will) that all shut down?  Are you relying on Laura and Almonzo to harvest the crops while you do business, Pa?  :)

Thanks to this thread I am all set now...

47 LARGE cans of dinty Moore beef stew

33 gallons of spring water

100 oz sanitizer

:thumbup:

unfortunately no masks yet  :cry:
You won't die from Corona.  You might from diarrhea (or at least I would).

 

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