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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

Politician Spock said:
And again, those who survive are looking at HUGE gains when the pandemic is over given they've eliminated so much competition, and can buy assets at fire sale prices. It is not a bad bet at all right now to just buy stocks that you think will be positioned well for post-pandemic growth, and wait it out. Which is what a lot of people are doing right now. 
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Worked out well for the Bubba Gump Shrimp Company back in the day.

 
Went on a Target run this weekend.  I'd say 90% of folks wearing some kind of mask.  They were only letting 10 people in at a time (following 10 people leaving).  Not much "distancing" in the aisles, unfortunately.  Not sure why they just don't put tape down indicating "one way" aisles.  Would be super easy to do, super easy to follow.  

We're supposedly hitting our peak in the next few days.  So far we've been doing "OK", at least in SoCal. 

Stay safe, iFriends.  

 
the moops said:
And experts will get some things wrong. It takes time to figure out novel viruses, but we don't really have the luxury of just waiting until there is a sure fire 100% consensus on how to combat and/or how to live with this thing.

So rather than going on whims and listening to talking heads, we should take expert consensus from the data available and rely on their intelligence and decision making. I can't believe anyone thinks we should do anything different. 
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Most important word in your post is bolded.

One-off experts, two-off experts, five-off experts, whatever. It's not any one messenger's credentials that help laymen approach truth. It's the aggregation of many -- very many -- well-credentialed messengers synthesizing and vetting a large amount of information.

 
gianmarco said:
The Big Reset (good read)

I'm finding reading stuff like this fascinating.

It's incredible how something like this could potentially change so much about our daily lives moving forward beyond this initial period.  The fact that this virus has the potential to:

1)  Drastically increase working from home, which would....

2)  Drastically improve pollution due to decrease commutes and travel

3)  Wholesale government changes that could include more widespread healthcare for all, family/daycare coverage, etc.

4)  Reconnecting with family and changing our daily routines to include eating at home more, more exercising, and overall more "caring" for each other and our friends, reaching out more often, etc.

5)  The change of social norms like wearing masks in public, shaking hands, and even just social distancing in general.

is amazing to me.

In some ways, I really think we needed this kind of "reset" in a big, big way.  I hope we take advantage of the opportunity afforded us.
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The author is on to something, I just wish it didn't read like a sales pitch for the Big Reset course he's obviously marketing.

I did find this to be an offputting statement, though:

By the way the market for “work at home (WAH)” is huge. In 1997 the Bureau of Labor Statistics believed 37 million jobs were WAH-capable. Today that number is almost twice as high, estimated at over 50 million.
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First, he's wrong. 50 million is only 1.35x 37 million, not really close to double at all.

Second, he's pointing out that the growth in WAH has gone up by such a paltry number and it took 23 years to do so.  That's unbelievablely weak growth.  Less than 1.5% per year!

If he's saying that in 2021 we will have 100 million WAH jobs, then this would be an amazing thing and would literally change the workforce rules overnight.  But he's really just saying that everything will continue on the super slow ramp that we've already seen.  Big whoop.

 
Doug B said:
Mr Anonymous said:
Then two things - we're working with bad data on current cases and the case isn't closed on what was going on in December and January. So what now?
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Keep collecting data. The data isn't "bad" per se -- there's a spectrum. 100% accurate data in any endeavor is essentially impossible. So you get as much data as you can the best way you can. While that means you are only ever dealing with estimates, that doesn't mean you're dealing with miles-off info. It probably doesn't matter a ton if the cases/hospitalizations/deaths numbers in NYC, say, are 20% higher or lower -- the degree of the crisis and the reactions of front-line health providers, etc. would remain essentially the same.

As for the December/January theory ... since the idea is likely unfalsifiable, it won't end up amounting to much. Background serological testing will happen, and apparent healthies/low-symptom folks will get sampled.  But there likely won't be a ready way to tell someone "Yep ... you got it for sure in December" as opposed to having gotten COVID at some other more recent time.
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Bad form to bump oneself ... but this is something that helps address the "testing doesn't work" idea that crept into this thread earlier this afternoon. I think it got lost because it was at the bottom of a page.

 
the moops said:
And experts will get some things wrong. It takes time to figure out novel viruses, but we don't really have the luxury of just waiting until there is a sure fire 100% concensus on how to comabt and/or how to live with this thing.

So rather than going on whims and listening to tallking heads, we should take expert concensus from the data available and rely on their intelligence and decision making. I can't believe anyomne thinks we should do anything different. 
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:confused:   This is essentially (exactly actually) what I am saying.  That is NOT my Governor though, so just because he says (possibly) "school's back on" until I hear from the experts that we're good, my kids aren't going back.

 
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Doug B said:
Most important word in your post is bolded.

One-off experts, two-off experts, five-off experts, whatever. It's not any one messenger's credentials that help laymen approach truth. It's the aggregation of many -- very many -- well-credentialed messengers synthesizing and vetting a large amount of information.
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The messaging on this thing has been so inconsistent though.

Take this article for example with quotes from "experts".

"While it is possible to contract the virus [from contaminated surfaces], the majority of transmission is probably going to be from respiratory droplets, which you're exposed to when you're around other people," says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.
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Same article also says this then...

Given the growing evidence that people can shed the virus before they are showing symptoms, they might not know they're infected either. That's why the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommends that people wear cloth face coverings out in public, and some stores now require shoppers to wear them — not so much to protect you as to protect other people from you in case you are infected.
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Then back to Rasmussen...

One other tip, from Rasmussen: Don't use your cellphone while you're in the store, because a "phone is a great way to get your hands right up next to your face."
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She leaves the gloves at home and sanitizes or washes her hands instead — before entering the store, after leaving and again once she gets home.
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Literally none of that is consistent. Unless they are saying the respiratory droplets that somebody coughs are somehow magically attracted to your hands and not to surfaces or your face. 

Think this is a one off article? nope. Plenty of others like it. 

 
Hillsborough County (Tampa area) just announced curfew starting tonight at 9 pm and ends each day at 5 am.

ETA: not surprised considering how many people I see completely ignoring social distancing guidelines.

 
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The Commish said:
:confused:   This is essentially (exactly actually) what I am saying.  That is NOT my Governor though, so just because he says (possibly) "school's back on" until I hear from the experts that we're good, my kids aren't going back.
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I wasn't disagreeing with you my friend

 
parasaurolophus said:
The messaging on this thing has been so inconsistent though.

Take this article for example with quotes from "experts".

Same article also says this then...
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I don't see the same inconsistencies you are seeing.  These recommendations don't contradict each other, but work in concert together.

If anything, the reporting has been incredibly inconsistent and downright propaganda-ish depending on where you look, but that's not the fault of various experts.

 
jplvr said:
You left off alcohol with take-out, and DoorDash/UberEats/etc should definitely be allowed to deliver from my liquor store with proper ID restrictions like having your ID on file.
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Unfortunately, my alcohol consumption has gone way up.  No driving and don't have to wake up early - two of the reasons I didn't drink most days.  I had two double Manhattans last night after drinking beer most of the day.  Woke up to storms at 1:30 with a pounding hangover headache.  On the good side I've tried several new beers.  :banned:

 
tangfoot said:
I don't see the same inconsistencies you are seeing.  These recommendations don't contradict each other, but work in concert together.

If anything, the reporting has been incredibly inconsistent and downright propaganda-ish depending on where you look, but that's not the fault of various experts.
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How are you getting it on your hands?

 
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parasaurolophus said:
So WI puts out some pretty good data for whats going on with covid in the state. Between the hospitals releasing this and the state giving good breakdowns by demographics we have to be one of the better states for available data. 
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Interesting - that's a huge % number for Black Wisconsinites.  25% of cases but from what I found on Google, 7% of the population.  Someone posted the data by county and population and I noticed how bad southwest Georgia is and it is a higher % of AA's than the rest of the state I believe.  Would be interesting to see if there's good state by state data.

 
ericttspikes said:
These kind of protocols need to be developed in every industry. For factories, is it temp checks (or ideally instant CV tests) in combination with PPE? Rotating shifts to mitigate sick workers? Seems doable. 
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Those touchless thermometers are going to be a Godsend.  I can picture an old guy acting like a Walmart greeter at the entrance of our office just scanning foreheads and giving 'go or stop' instructions.

 
Redwes25 said:
Thought this was an interesting article re: deaths in NYC compared to historical norms.  Deaths are twice the normal rate in last month and 3 times in last week, which I think puts some cold water on the notion that we are blaming other deaths on Covid. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
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COVID-19 deaths per 1 million of population:

Spain        377
Italy        338
Belgium        337
France        229
UK        167
Netherlands    165
Switzerland    131
Sweden        91

New York City    875

 
the moops said:
I wasn't disagreeing with you my friend
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:lmao:   Sorry

Guess I'm still getting the stank of the PSF off of me.  Takes time to recalibrate back to "normal" from the nonsense going on over there.  The last week to 10 days has been a real eye opener for me.  I'm not sure what I was thinking ever going in there...turns out the "trainwreck" effect wears off a lot faster than I'd have thought.

 
parasaurolophus said:
The messaging on this thing has been so inconsistent though.

Take this article for example with quotes from "experts".

Same article also says this then...

Then back to Rasmussen...

Literally none of that is consistent. Unless they are saying the respiratory droplets that somebody coughs are somehow magically attracted to your hands and not to surfaces or your face. 

Think this is a one off article? nope. Plenty of others like it. 
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... I thought it was all consistent :shrug:  

It's not that respiratory droplets are attracted to hands ... it's that your hands are the parts of your body that are out touching everything. And then those same hands pick teeth, rub eyes, relieve a sniffle, etc. at more or less a subconscious level.

 
Doug B said:
... I thought it was all consistent :shrug:  

It's not that respiratory droplets are attracted to hands ... it's that your hands are the parts of your body that are out touching everything. And then those same hands pick teeth, rub eyes, relieve a sniffle, etc. at more or less a subconscious level.
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So would you call those contaminated surfaces? 

If yes, then it is inarguably inconsistent. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
tangfoot said:
I don't see the same inconsistencies you are seeing.  These recommendations don't contradict each other, but work in concert together.

If anything, the reporting has been incredibly inconsistent and downright propaganda-ish depending on where you look, but that's not the fault of various experts.
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How are you getting it on your hands?
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The droplets get coughed/sneezed out, travel a few feet and then land on ... whatever's handy. Fortunately, the droplets dry out before long and the viral load attenuates**. However, there is still a risk of you handling something that's got fresh droplets on it.

** Yes, yes ... researchers can scrape just-so prepared surfaces and find a stray virion or two days later. That ain't gonna get you sick, though.

 
jplvr said:
You left off alcohol with take-out, and DoorDash/UberEats/etc should definitely be allowed to deliver from my liquor store with proper ID restrictions like having your ID on file.
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I ordered $200 worth of booze and mixers with Drizzly (referral code link) 10 days ago.  It was fulfilled by BevMo and delivered by DoorDash.  I think the way it works is that they partner with vendors and delivery services locally, so YMMV.  The delivery guy scanned the barcode on the back of my driver's license with his phone, so we did have to get within an arm's length of each other.  I suppose you could set the license down outside your door and have him scan it.

 
parasaurolophus said:
So would you call those contaminated surfaces? 

If yes, then it is inarguably inconsistent. 
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:confused:  

Are the hands contaminated surfaces? Or is the 'everything that is getting touched' contaminated surfaces?

You can pick up stray viruses from a freshly-laden surface, yes. This means of transmission, however, is believed to occur significantly less often than the direct droplet route. Quoth the CDC, 3/26/2020:

Based on what is currently known about COVID-19, spread from person-to-person of this virus happens most frequently among close contacts (within about 6 feet). This type of transmission occurs via respiratory droplets. On the other hand, transmission of novel coronavirus to persons from surfaces contaminated with the virus has not been documented. Recent studies indicate that people who are infected but do not have symptoms likely also play a role in the spread of COVID-19. Transmission of coronavirus occurs much more commonly through respiratory droplets than through fomites.
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Now, don't take that "... has not been documented" part to mean "does not happen". It means what it says -- fomite spread doesn't get specific documentation because it's close to impossible to tease apart catching it from a person and catching it from a fomite.

EDIT:

Further, from the same NPR article you quoted from last page:

Rasmussen explains that the probability of getting infected from a contaminated surface is not zero, but it is fairly low. That's because respiratory droplets would have to have landed on the exact spot on, say, a box of cereal that you are touching. And even then, you'd have to get enough residual virus on your hand to start an infection — and you'd have to transfer that virus to your face. Bottom line: If you follow good hand-hygiene practices — washing your hands after unpacking your groceries, before cooking and before eating — then, she says, your risk is probably "very, very low."

As Aronoff notes, "Time is really on your side here." That's because as soon as the virus lands on a surface, it starts to lose infectiousness. "After 24 hours, the vast majority of virus is no longer infectious," he says. And after 72 hours, he notes that research has found the virus is trace or undetectable on most surfaces.
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SFBayDuck said:
I ordered $200 worth of booze and mixers with Drizzly (referral code link) 10 days ago.  It was fulfilled by BevMo and delivered by DoorDash.  I think the way it works is that they partner with vendors and delivery services locally, so YMMV.  The delivery guy scanned the barcode on the back of my driver's license with his phone, so we did have to get within an arm's length of each other.  I suppose you could set the license down outside your door and have him scan it.
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Someone pointed out Drizly to me on another forum, but unfortunately for me, there's no same day delivery for my location. Oh well, I'll keep up with it going forward.

 
JbizzleMan said:
Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't wait to bring her home in a few days and hold her again. :wub:
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Congratulations!!! Please...PLEASE tell me you named her Corina

 
The new IHME model is out and well, call me skeptical. 

Despite the negative publicity about open beaches and Spring Break, Florida has actually outperformed most expectations (in a good way for once)

- 3rd in Nation in testing which are coming back at a comparatively low 10.8% positive.

- new cases have pretty much plateaued the last 5 to 7 days

-ICU availability is just under 40%

- the daily deaths are consistently coming in under the model's prediction.

Therefore I was surprised comparing today's version of the model for Florida.

' -today's model shows plenty of ICU and regular hospital beds available

- but it pushes out the date of max daily deaths by 10 days (5/6 now vs 4/27 earlier) AND it increases that max daily death number by roughly 10% (128 now vs 116).

 
jplvr said:
Someone pointed out Drizly to me on another forum, but unfortunately for me, there's no same day delivery for my location. Oh well, I'll keep up with it going forward.
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If Drizzly sold the booze I like that I can't get around here I'd never step foot in a liquor store again.  Curse that sweet sweet Mudshark Full Moon Belgian White!

 
JaxBill said:
The new IHME model is out and well, call me skeptical. 

Despite the negative publicity about open beaches and Spring Break, Florida has actually outperformed most expectations (in a good way for once)

- 3rd in Nation in testing which are coming back at a comparatively low 10.8% positive.

- new cases have pretty much plateaued the last 5 to 7 days

-ICU availability is just under 40%

- the daily deaths are consistently coming in under the model's prediction.

Therefore I was surprised comparing today's version of the model for Florida.

' -today's model shows plenty of ICU and regular hospital beds available

- but it pushes out the date of max daily deaths by 10 days (5/6 now vs 4/27 earlier) AND it increases that max daily death number by roughly 10% (128 now vs 116).
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Terrible news on that model. Total number of deaths went up +8,000 for the whole country. That's +13% from the 4/10 projection. They should point out the need to double down on social distancing and stay at home measures. Not doing a good job. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Terrible news on that model. Total number of deaths went up +8,000 for the whole country. That's +13% from the 4/10 projection. They should point out the need to double down on social distancing and stay at home measures. Not doing a good job. 
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Floridians don't listen very well. We see it every hurricane season, and traffic in my area is pretty much normal. So much for essential business only.

 
moleculo said:
nope.  all you have to do is estimate the uncertainty (if you care about that), or use the data to evaluate general trends.  The data we have is fine for that.  Nothing changes if the reported NY fatalities are 800 vs 775.  does it make a difference it the real (unknowable) answer was actually 885?  or 900?  There are still inferences that can be made that are extremely sound and helpful.

Generally speaking, if you see reported cases increasing day by day, that means you can infer that the virus continues to spread. Likewise, you could be able to tell if the numbers are stable or decreasing.  Exact numbers aren't really necessary, as long as the errors aren't so significant that they obscure the trends. Further, someone skilled in the art could do a reasonable job of estimating the errors and helping guide the decisions. 

Errors in measuring isn't unique to the US, it's not unique to this pandemic, and it's not unique to any study in the history of science.
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It could also simply mean that more testing is being done ...

 
Doug B said:
:confused:  

Are the hands contaminated surfaces? Or is the 'everything that is getting touched' contaminated surfaces?

You can pick up stray viruses from a freshly-laden surface, yes. This means of transmission, however, is believed to occur significantly less often than the direct droplet route. Quoth the CDC, 3/26/2020:

Now, don't take that "... has not been documented" part to mean "does not happen". It means what it says -- fomite spread doesn't get specific documentation because it's close to impossible to tease apart catching it from a person and catching it from a fomite.

EDIT:

Further, from the same NPR article you quoted from last page:
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You cant say you are more likely to get it from respiratory droplets than contaminated surfaces(which is what she said) without meaning that those are different things.

That would make zero sense.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
While I don't disagree to some degree, that mindset is absolutely baffling to me. 

"Hey US, here's what you need to do."

US "No way." 

:wall:
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American exceptionalism. I bet you think it's great

 
Tolstoy said:
India cases jumped 14% today.  yikes.  hopefully that’s just expanded testing.
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Not really. They have done 12000 tests over the past 4-5 days (I forgot when I posted their 177,000 tests)

 
NotSmart said:
Introverted, anti-social... whatever it takes.
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Yep, i am fine with this. I love being with my wife, daughter and cat all day. Knowing we are safe is priceless. I like opening a beer at 3:00 pm on a Monday. I have prepared a bunch of new foods. There is nothing I cannot get on-line. I am not on a good sleep routine because of this schedule change, but that will come.I could do this for a long, long time. 

 
Osaurus said:
Hillsborough County (Tampa area) just announced curfew starting tonight at 9 pm and ends each day at 5 am.

ETA: not surprised considering how many people I see completely ignoring social distancing guidelines.
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Meanwhile the next county over that borders the Gulf...

@wusf: Pinellas County commissioners will consider easing beach restrictions at this Thursday’s meeting. 

But before that, they want to talk with Sheriff Bob Gualtieri as his deputies would have to enforce social distancing if the restrictions are eased.

https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/post/pinellas-commissioners-consider-easing-beach-restrictions

.

 
parasaurolophus said:
You cant say you are more likely to get it from respiratory droplets than contaminated surfaces(which is what she said) without meaning that those are different things.

That would make zero sense.
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If it helps ... "droplet transmission" literally means sucking in a teeny-tiny virus-filled drop of a sneeze or cough out of the air from someone close by.

Once those droplets land on something ... the liquid content of the droplet tends to evaporate very quickly. So no more droplet -- but still some virions left behind to contaminate some portion of the surface. In numbers, those virions don't last a whole lot longer once the protection of the droplet is gone ... though some small percentage hang on for a day or so.

 
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