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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
cross post from the PSF
Anyway, currently the U.S. is doing 200K tests per day.
We apparently have a much greater capacity if you’re talking about just the kits. But diagnostic kits are of no value if you don’t have enough reagents or swabs. We have had shortages of both.
Of course, the reagent is different for each manufacturer, and there are bottlenecks in the supply chain. For the diagnostic test, there are 10 approved antibody test manufacturers, and another 150 tests which have not received FDA approval. It’s basically the Wild West out there in the testing world with no one coordinating, duplication of effort, and no one effectively overseeing the supply chain.
Given the format, Oliver unsurprisingly does not give citation. I’ll try to do some research in between Zoom meetings to see if I can figure where he got his info.
The Last Week video also recaps some of delays in testing caused by the CDC; we basically lost the entire month of February as they struggled developing their own test. We declined the WHO offer to use their tests. You may recall the initial tests sent out were contaminated & didn’t work, and in that period they were not approving any private tests. By the end of the month they reversed course and opened it up to private labs.
Some of the diagnostic tests are notoriously unreliable. I tested negative for the virus and positive for the antibodies. Apparently my low grade fever and mild symptoms 3 weeks ago was Covid 19. Or am I false positive? No one knows. My primary care told me to continue living as if I don’t have the antibodies, because we don’t know for certain.
Hoping we have a seasonal decline. Seems like much of the country does not grasp what we are contending with, and seem to think their cabin fever is sufficient justification for ending shelter in place. Oh, and there are more important things than living (actual actual quote.) Like...$$.
In a Zoom call with a Lansing dental hygienist a few days, I discovered testing is incredibly difficult to obtain in Michigan. My sister (physical therapist) is working as a Hot Zone volunteer, teaching HWC how to properly don PPE. She confirmed the scarcity of testing in Michigan and said obtaining PPE rn is extremely chaotic.
In the John Oliver video I posted above, he states the “experts guidance” for the U.S. is to conduct between 5M and 20M tests per day (that’s the combined number of diagnostic and antibody tests.) Anyone seen anything regarding that?
Anyway, currently the U.S. is doing 200K tests per day.
We apparently have a much greater capacity if you’re talking about just the kits. But diagnostic kits are of no value if you don’t have enough reagents or swabs. We have had shortages of both.
Of course, the reagent is different for each manufacturer, and there are bottlenecks in the supply chain. For the diagnostic test, there are 10 approved antibody test manufacturers, and another 150 tests which have not received FDA approval. It’s basically the Wild West out there in the testing world with no one coordinating, duplication of effort, and no one effectively overseeing the supply chain.
Given the format, Oliver unsurprisingly does not give citation. I’ll try to do some research in between Zoom meetings to see if I can figure where he got his info.
The Last Week video also recaps some of delays in testing caused by the CDC; we basically lost the entire month of February as they struggled developing their own test. We declined the WHO offer to use their tests. You may recall the initial tests sent out were contaminated & didn’t work, and in that period they were not approving any private tests. By the end of the month they reversed course and opened it up to private labs.
Some of the diagnostic tests are notoriously unreliable. I tested negative for the virus and positive for the antibodies. Apparently my low grade fever and mild symptoms 3 weeks ago was Covid 19. Or am I false positive? No one knows. My primary care told me to continue living as if I don’t have the antibodies, because we don’t know for certain.
Hoping we have a seasonal decline. Seems like much of the country does not grasp what we are contending with, and seem to think their cabin fever is sufficient justification for ending shelter in place. Oh, and there are more important things than living (actual actual quote.) Like...$$.
In a Zoom call with a Lansing dental hygienist a few days, I discovered testing is incredibly difficult to obtain in Michigan. My sister (physical therapist) is working as a Hot Zone volunteer, teaching HWC how to properly don PPE. She confirmed the scarcity of testing in Michigan and said obtaining PPE rn is extremely chaotic.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not all care homes are nursing homes. In your opinion, how does this data change our approach to public health measures for COVID-19?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I dont know what is "normal" but I know this also happened with h1n1. Maybe if there was an autopsy performed they keep them longer?
I dunno.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
On the surface this seems like a reasonable conclusion and I mostly agree, but other viruses like H1N1, hit neighboring countries in very different levels of severity.
Are New York and Los Angeles more alike than Chile and Argentina?
Sweet J
Footballguy
My wife works in a "retirement community" in Northern Virginia. Her job is healthcare-related. It's almost like a little compound. There is a dinning hall, common areas, etc. It's not super-rich, but you have to plunk down good money to buy one of the units there. On the compound is a nursing home, but she doesn't usually work there. She said that in the 10 or so years she's worked there, occasionally people die in their homes, but it's pretty rare. Historically, if they start to go downhill, they will transfer to the nursing home for end of life care. She thinks that in 2019, a handful of people (3 or 4?) may have died in their homes.
Since January of this year, 80 people have died in their homes. EIGHTY people. That's not including people who have died in the nursing home.
She thinks that two deaths at her work have been attributed to COVID.
I'm not sure what to make of the above. The entire facility is in lockdown, meaning NO family visitors. She wonders if people are dying of loneliness. Or who knows, maybe it's related to COVID. It's all insane and people are mostly just coping by triage.
(note: COVID is still getting in. Apparently last week an outside aide working with a guy with COVID was spotted going in and out of his room without wearing PPD (including no mask!). Crazy).
Since January of this year, 80 people have died in their homes. EIGHTY people. That's not including people who have died in the nursing home.
She thinks that two deaths at her work have been attributed to COVID.
I'm not sure what to make of the above. The entire facility is in lockdown, meaning NO family visitors. She wonders if people are dying of loneliness. Or who knows, maybe it's related to COVID. It's all insane and people are mostly just coping by triage.
(note: COVID is still getting in. Apparently last week an outside aide working with a guy with COVID was spotted going in and out of his room without wearing PPD (including no mask!). Crazy).
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beer 30
Footballguy
Seems like a good idea in the middle of a pandemic caused by a coronavirus closely aligned to bats, what could go wrong?JAA said:
Side note: ya'll better start tracking Shi Zhengli. She's going to disappear in a jungle soon if I know anything about how the Chinese show their appreciation for a job well done.
Well that's kinda huge in the geopolitical world, isn't it? China is already going to suffer backlash from this event and if it's proven they lied about this (as a lot of folks suspect already), it's going to be devastating to them.
This will sound harsh because of the nature of typing something in a forum, but I'm not trying to be a jerk here. That being said, I'm not going to wear one because I don't want to. I don't want to fight with a mask while trying to eat, I want to set at a bar and drink a beer without worrying about a mask. I don't want my glasses fogging up all the time, I want my friend who is hard of hearing to be able to read lips to pick up a conversation...
Sweet J
Footballguy
A couple of weeks ago, my wife had to transport someone from her home in the retirement community to the nursing home. She had COVID, and my wife was the only one at the time who was fitted with Protective Gear. She said the woman was upset and didn't want to go. "I want to go home" she kept saying. After spending the day with her at her home, my wife wheeled her over, but the nursing home wasn't ready for her. She had to sit with the woman for a couple hours as they prepared a room, bed, etc. It was was incredibly disorganized. Because family is not allowed in the compound, she didn't have anyone else to sit with her. My wife stayed with her until the end of her shift.
I just got a text from my wife: "The woman I took care of all day 2 weeks ago just died. I wish she could have stayed at home. She cried when I left her at the nursing home."
I just don't know, man. I just don't know.
I just got a text from my wife: "The woman I took care of all day 2 weeks ago just died. I wish she could have stayed at home. She cried when I left her at the nursing home."
I just don't know, man. I just don't know.
H Jass
Footballguy
I see this a lot in my area too, re: masks. Doesn't matter if it will help people out who need it, people just don't want too. They'll dress it up in "freedom" or something, but it comes down to laziness, thoughtlessness or carelessness. Funny thing too is they'll cite the CDC early guidelines against mask-wearing in early March. But, everything else mainstream science based is the devil and not to be trusted because of some sort of radical agenda on controlling us. It sucks even though it will directly help my wife and elderly parents and in-laws. Its hard not to be down on humanity at times.
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JAA
Footballguy
Thanks - will check out this podcastUnrelated, but I’m two episodes into the Season 2 podcast of Gangster Capitalism, which centers on the NRA’s internal power struggle and financial scandals. It’s pretty fascinating.JAA said:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Interesting.
If I’m reading this correctly, convenience is more important than protecting your own life, and/or ensuring you are not infecting others with a deadly disease. Or did I misunderstand what you meant?
Does that seem reasonable? Or do you think Coronavirus is not as big deal as everyone is making it. Just trying to understand your thought process.
re: glasses condensation
ETA:
Will putting soap or shaving cream on my glasses prevent them from fogging?
As more people struggle with foggy glasses, several home remedies have made the rounds, including treating glasses with soapy water, shaving cream, baby shampoo, or toothpaste. These solutions may have some merit. A 2011 paper published by one British surgeon showed that washing glasses with soapy water and letting them air dry can help prevent fogginess. That's because the soap acts as a surface active agent, or surfactant, and leaves behind a thin film that helps prevents fog.
"There isn't any really good data and there aren't any really good studies on these techniques," says Dr. Brinton, "but any substance that will leave a surfactant on there that will impede the condensation can be useful."
He says that while substances like shaving cream, soap, baby shampoo, and toothpaste can all accomplish this, they aren't widely used — mostly likely because they don't last too long and aren't as effective as other methods.
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JAA
Footballguy
An update from my wife's facility in central MA. For those who may not remember, there was a patient who tested positive last week which prompted a testing of everyone at the facility. Well, the results are back. A total of 15 patients tested positive as well as "some staff", though no details on how many.
So this is now real for me. Not real in a sense that I have to worry about my immediately family per se as none of us are at risk. Its real in a sense that the virus is real, the proliferation of the virus is real, and the numbers point to patients around my wife will start dying. That is real.
For those who are not at risk to this, I ask you to consider the others around you who may be at risk. How are you acting in service to their well being? Please consider others with your choices.
So this is now real for me. Not real in a sense that I have to worry about my immediately family per se as none of us are at risk. Its real in a sense that the virus is real, the proliferation of the virus is real, and the numbers point to patients around my wife will start dying. That is real.
For those who are not at risk to this, I ask you to consider the others around you who may be at risk. How are you acting in service to their well being? Please consider others with your choices.
Doug B
Footballguy
The points in red are legitimate -- when and where indoor dining re-opens (back in a few places already), I don't think anyone's expecting patrons to somehow eat/drink through a face covering.
What about retail, though? Grocery shopping, clothes shopping, the auto parts store?
I don't know if it will ever come to pass ... but one thing you will have to consider is what to do if local laws are passed requiring face coverings at certain places. In the short term, you'll probably continue to be able to keep making the choice of shopping and visiting businesses that don't require face coverings. But laws could be passed and enforced that take that choice out of your hands.
Doug B
Footballguy
IMHO, it's not yet time to treat the French finding of December COVID infections as hard fact. As always, replicate and corroborate. Rule out testing errors, contamination of samples, and anything else.
@BobbyLayne I feel like I have explained my feelings on the matter. I will assume you feel differently, and neither one of us are going to change our minds.
If a law is passed requiring it I will follow them just as I do any other law. For now I do not own one and will not wear one in any situation.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Gotcha. makes total sense and NOW I see this difference between the two of us:
I LIKE to eat with a mask on, ENJOY worrying about my mask while sitting at a bar, LOVE when my glasses fog up, and don't give a flying F whether my hard of hearing friends can fully understand me.
Looks like we'll BOTH be able to do EXACTLY what we want WHEN want to. Glad that's finally cleared up.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Aside from arthouse cinemas, theaters are generally awful places to see a movie. If mostly empty and no idiots? Great. But that seems to be rarer and rarer.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Thought this was a good visual aid for masks
https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153
https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153
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I believe the number he said is between 500k and 20M. It’s a reference to what various experts have said in interviews or written in papers. I believe the 20M comes from a Harvard expert.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That’s correct, it was a Harvard study that recommended 20M tests per day. I whiffed on both the lowest study estimate (500K) and the highest (35M.) The good news is we only need to ramp up another 250% to hit the bare minimum.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I've been the laziest POS over the last month. I give myself the benefit of the doubt for the first 3 weeks, but it's been very nice the last week. I have done jack ####. Gotta rake leaves and sticks, mow the yard, oil changes for the 2 cars, and generally just get my ### in gear. Perhaps writing it down will give me the push I need...
JbizzleMan
Footballguy
White House projecting 3,000deaths:day by early june
JbizzleMan
Footballguy
JbizzleMan
Footballguy
Feels like yesterday crossing the 9/11 total deaths was a huge deal
Possum
Footballguy
damn man that's horrible to hear. I know this means next to nothing but my thoughts and best wishes go out to your wife (and to you for having to be her de facto therapist/counselor on this stuff).
beer 30
Footballguy
Given your comorbidities I'd think that would be incentive enough to get your ### in gear but different strokes. Good luck, I'd think just getting out and walking would do you wonders. As well as putting down the cigarettes for good but I know that's a little more difficult to do.
That’s horrible. Essentially they are admitting we are nowhere near our peak and/or early reopenings will cause a second wave.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I find it interesting that you've seen the mask-wearing rolled-back a lot where you are - it is ramping up here. Anecdotally, every place I've gone these past 2 weeks or so have required a mask or some sort of face covering. Hardware store, auto parts store, beer store, restaurants for takeout, etc. I've started to see some people even wearing masks while just going for a walk, but that's hit or miss. In a commercial, retail setting, I don't think I've seen a single person without a mask /face covering in at least 2 weeks.Doug B said:
the moops
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
jamny
Footballguy
I'm asking if any states that had unsafe rallies have shown an increase in cases, since they started 2 weeks ago.
No other motive.
Battersbox
Footballguy
This is strange, because it also predicts 200k new cases daily, up from ~30k daily right now.
Why would cases rise so dramatically but deaths only rise 50% - 100%? I don't understand that.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
the moops
Footballguy
scooter has actual #s, so I will delete
I'm asking if any states that had unsafe rallies have shown an increase in cases, since they started 2 weeks ago.
No other motive.
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Sammy3469
Footballguy
Here's the link to the actual CDC pdf. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1
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beer 30
Footballguy
Think it's very regional at this point. I live in Small Town, USA that hasn't seen much of an impact from the virus. Understandably, it's very hit or miss with masks here. If I was in downtown Charlotte, it might be different. If I was in NYC I'd burn my clothes if I ever went outside again.
Most of these rallies are fairly low attendance, where the media always frames it like it is some big event when there are just 40-100 people there, so they might just be statistical noise. I think the thing to keep an eye on are states lifting public gathering restrictions, which should theoretically involve more people.
I'm asking if any states that had unsafe rallies have shown an increase in cases, since they started 2 weeks ago.
No other motive.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Seems like the populated areas of the Northeast -- anything within the socio-economic orbits of Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, etc. -- are taking COVID very differently than many (most?) other parts of the country.
And New Orleans is supposed to be a "hot spot", too. But this area can be a very head-in-the-sand kind of place :( "The City that Care Forgot" is not just a pithy slogan -- it's kind of an ethic, as well. "Why worry unless the thing you're worried about it right up on top of you?"
jamny
Footballguy
Watching Cuomo's reopening plan and at least got some clarification on what stats they are using.
He made it clear that upstate will begin sooner than downstate.
Regions must have a 14 day decline in total hospitalizations AND deaths on a 3 day rolling average. Glad to see it put that way instead of just saying new cases.
In regions with few Covid cases, cannot exceed 15 new total cases or 5 deaths on a 3 day rolling average.
A region can have no more than 2 new cases admitted per 100k residents per day.
Region must have at least 30% capacity of hospital and ICU beds.
Hospitals must have 90-day supply of PPE
He made it clear that upstate will begin sooner than downstate.
Regions must have a 14 day decline in total hospitalizations AND deaths on a 3 day rolling average. Glad to see it put that way instead of just saying new cases.
In regions with few Covid cases, cannot exceed 15 new total cases or 5 deaths on a 3 day rolling average.
A region can have no more than 2 new cases admitted per 100k residents per day.
Region must have at least 30% capacity of hospital and ICU beds.
Hospitals must have 90-day supply of PPE
Capella
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Just a simple increase of cases? That's it?
I'm asking if any states that had unsafe rallies have shown an increase in cases, since they started 2 weeks ago.
No other motive.
The answer, then, is "all of them". No states have had a decrease in cases at all.
jamny
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Can you guys both link to what you're talking about?
200,000 cases and 3,000 deaths daily, at least from a mathematical standpoint, make sense together as estimates. That's a 1.5% CFR.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
That article is not well written. The failed premise is to treat the US as one entity, or region. Everyone knows at this point that regions and states will be on their own curves, depending on when the virus appeared to grow exponentially, and the success/adherence of mitigation strategies (social distancing, no gatherings, really staying at home not faking it).
New York, as an example, is on a downward trend in new hospitalizations, net hospitalizations, and fatalities. They're on the decline of their full first curve, which can take roughly 56-77 days based on other countries. The curve is bell shaped, but the declining slope is less steep than the inclining slope. It's tough.
If regions try to re-open before they are on the downside of their curve, then they're not being patient enough/prudent with the data, simple fact. If New York can come down off of high death tolls of 750-780 per day to now being under 300 for a few days in a row, then anyplace can do it. It takes discipline and patience, unfortunately neither of which seem to be ruling the day in a lot of places. You can't just skip the steps. "Oh, we stayed home though." Really? Or did you pretend. The data doesn't lie.
