Hard to know what he's arguing. He's talking medically and then he shifts to a political statement when he talks about "terrorizing the country". I doubt the virus substantially changed, but they locked down for so long that the numbers are just WAY down. 75 people died yesterday in Italy, so his statement that "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy" is false.
When I said coronavirus would be an afterthought by summer I didn't mean like this.
We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection.
I only care if CT is under 1. If they are over 1, then I will claim the data is wrong.not that anyone cares anymore, but rt.live is now showing 10 states with Rt >1. It appears to come from a model update (5/20 model update: some states’ Rt have changed because we improved our testing volume adjustments), but clearly that's not all. 4 weeks ago, it was 6 states.
The state with the current highrest Rt: my adopted home state of South Carolina, coming in at 1.14. 4 weeks ago, we were at 0.82, roughly when we ended the shelter-at-home.
Other states with Rt>1: Arizona, West Virginia, Alabama, California, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, Washington, and Texas.
Dr. Bassetti has a Facebook page with translated posts. He seems to believe it's adapting (mutating?) to a less virulent strain in Italy.I wonder if getting smaller initial viral loads is the reason it is weaker. In February and March, people would have been getting exposed to much larger viral loads in Italy which would have made it easier for the virus to overwhelm a person's immune system.
How could they have been so wrong on April 1st???We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection.
We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes)
Wow, that's interesting. Never thought of it like that.Well.. let's not forget that the purpose of the virus, whatever it is, is not to kill the host it infected (because in doing so doing he would die risking disappearing) but to survive adapting to the host himself.
Looking at it backwards -- you don't wear a non-medical face covering in indoor public spaces to protect yourself from infection. You wear a face covering as source control to help protect others. Also from your link, a few paragraphs down:New England Journal of Medicine – Wearing mask outside health care facilities offers little protection
We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection.
Replace "health care workers" with "shoppers", "diners", or "visitors". Then replace "other providers and patients" with "other people".More compelling is the possibility that wearing a mask may reduce the likelihood of transmission from asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic health care workers with Covid-19 to other providers and patients. This concern increases as Covid-19 becomes more widespread in the community. We face a constant risk that a health care worker with early infection may bring the virus into our facilities and transmit it to others. Transmission from people with asymptomatic infection has been well documented ...
Check in with them a couple times a week. I like that they put the events of opening back up on the state graphs. Paints a rather clear picture I am sure will be ignored by the "follow the guidelines!!!!!!!" guys who have all but disappeared.not that anyone cares anymore, but rt.live is now showing 10 states with Rt >1. It appears to come from a model update (5/20 model update: some states’ Rt have changed because we improved our testing volume adjustments), but clearly that's not all. 4 weeks ago, it was 6 states.
The state with the current highrest Rt: my adopted home state of South Carolina, coming in at 1.14. 4 weeks ago, we were at 0.82, roughly when we ended the shelter-at-home.
Other states with Rt>1: Arizona, West Virginia, Alabama, California, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, Washington, and Texas.
Why is that unrealistic? And why are you saying "if it comes back in some way"? This isn't a mythical thing, it's a virus. The reason that new case counts might be flat is because people are still being very cautious. As long as that caution continues, the status quo in case counts will continue.New case counts still flat post "opening" in Texas. Death counts are flat to down. The thought that Texas will ever get close to the 700/100k case count that would push toward another "closing" seems very unrealistic at this point. At least not until the fall, if we think this thing comes back in the fall stronger in some way.
Wow, that's interesting. Never thought of it like that.
I'm no virus expert, but are viruses smart enough to make rational decisions? I'm serious when I ask this.Well.. let's not forget that the purpose of the virus, whatever it is, is not to kill the host it infected (because in doing so doing he would die risking disappearing) but to survive adapting to the host himself.
It's basically evolution not actual decision making I guess.I'm no virus expert, but are viruses smart enough to make rational decisions? I'm serious when I ask this.
if you were going for sarcasm, i missed itTheWinz said:I'm no virus expert, but are viruses smart enough to make rational decisions? I'm serious when I ask this.
I can hear the virus talking to his other little virus friends.
Hey, let's kick this guy's ###, but make sure he survives so he can have more of our babies.
OK, you went too far with this guy, I guess we'll call one of those human doctors to make him better.
Sounds good to me. And while this doctor guy is fixing Earl, we can jump from Earl to him just like in Green Mile.
I wasn't. You missed nothing.if you were going for sarcasm, i missed it
That's a great write-up and explanation.Doug B said:Looking at it backwards -- you don't wear a non-medical face covering in indoor public spaces to protect yourself from infection. You wear a face covering as source control to help protect others. Also from your link, a few paragraphs down:
Replace "health care workers" with "shoppers", "diners", or "visitors". Then replace "other providers and patients" with "other people".
...
The point you highlighted was basically that if you are wearing a non-medical face covering and you end up exposed for sufficient time and in sufficient range to an unmasked infected person's breath, coughing, sneezing, etc. ... then the face covering won't prevent you from getting infected. That much is true -- but not particularly meaningful from a source control angle.
Put a non-medical mask on both the infected cougher/breather AND on the non-infected masked-up person, and otherwise leave the scenario the same ... and the transmission won't happen.
...
Also, that article leans a bit on the fomite angle. I still don't 100% know what's up with fomites exactly -- the CDC has more or less pushed fomites aside as a concern when compared to breathing, coughing, stale indoor air, long exposures to infected people in close-ish range (10-30 minutes in a 10' x 10' room, say).
Just updated, Georgia now into the lead at 1.16. The graph shows their daily cases are flat to down for the last couple weeks, so not sure why the Rt number is increasing.The Commish said:Check in with them a couple times a week. I like that they put the events of opening back up on the state graphs. Paints a rather clear picture I am sure will be ignored by the "follow the guidelines!!!!!!!" guys who have all but disappeared.
https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime Rt mcmc.ipynbmoleculo said:not that anyone cares anymore, but rt.live is now showing 10 states with Rt >1. It appears to come from a model update (5/20 model update: some states’ Rt have changed because we improved our testing volume adjustments), but clearly that's not all. 4 weeks ago, it was 6 states.
The state with the current highrest Rt: my adopted home state of South Carolina, coming in at 1.14. 4 weeks ago, we were at 0.82, roughly when we ended the shelter-at-home.
Other states with Rt>1: Arizona, West Virginia, Alabama, California, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, Washington, and Texas.
It could be any number of factors, but if the daily tests are going down and yet the cases are staying the same, that's one scenario where the numbers would go up.Just updated, Georgia now into the lead at 1.16. The graph shows their daily cases are flat to down for the last couple weeks, so not sure why the Rt number is increasing.
I care since I live in said state but I've also come around to the "it's gonna happen whether we stay at home or whether we open up" way of thinking. I haven't seen a case other than some large cities where medical facilities where overwhelmed. I think we can manage this but also keep in mind, we're at the early phases of opening back up. Everywhere I go in the Mill, masks are becoming a thing of the past and social distancing isn't far behind.moleculo said:not that anyone cares anymore, but rt.live is now showing 10 states with Rt >1. It appears to come from a model update (5/20 model update: some states’ Rt have changed because we improved our testing volume adjustments), but clearly that's not all. 4 weeks ago, it was 6 states.
The state with the current highrest Rt: my adopted home state of South Carolina, coming in at 1.14. 4 weeks ago, we were at 0.82, roughly when we ended the shelter-at-home.
Other states with Rt>1: Arizona, West Virginia, Alabama, California, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, Washington, and Texas.
Glad you're back at work, though!Today was my first day back in the OR since mid March. I am not sure what to think other than I think I should be paid more. New protocols
Good to hear you're finally back to workToday was my first day back in the OR since mid March. I am not sure what to think other than I think I should be paid more. New protocols
I agree you should be paid more. Actually think we all should be paid more.Today was my first day back in the OR since mid March. I am not sure what to think other than I think I should be paid more. New protocols
Moderna's coronavirus vaccine announcement set off a frenzy on Wall Street. Now some are calling for an investigation.I mentioned in the stock thread so will cross-post here:
I'm only posting this because I think it's relevant to some of the news that might be causing today's spike, so it's worth filing away. This is my official "Political post but not really a political post" disclaimer.
With Moderna on fast track status and their aggressive path announced today, it's worth noting that the new "Therapeutics Czar" tabbed in the last week to coordinate vaccine efforts, currently sits on the board of Moderna.
Maybe they're the first ones we're hearing about because they're the best so far, but this seems like a conflict worth noting.
Just hours after revealing the promising vaccine results, Moderna (MRNA) sold 17.6 million shares to the public. That share sale, unveiled after the closing bell on May 18, was priced at $76; Moderna traded at just $48 as recently as May 6. The deal instantly raised $1.3 billion.
Two of Moderna's top executives also cashed in on the boom at their company, which had suddenly amassed a $29 billion market value despite the fact it has no marketed products.
.........................................
The timing of the transactions -- coupled with concerns from some medical experts that Moderna overstated the significance of its Phase 1 vaccine trial -- should be investigated by authorities, former SEC officials told CNN Business.
"The confluence creates an appearance, which may be inaccurate, that people were in a rush to take advantage of an early positive trial in what is often a long and tortured development of a new drug," Harvey Pitt, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said in an interview.
Cases keep going up but hospital stays and death down in Texas. I'm generally ok with that.Tennessee has four straight days over 400 and today over 500 cases. Certainly not on a good trend.
Florida has been double that since April...with spikes here and there of 900-1000 and we aren't even flinching. We have had some delay days where one day it will bbe 400-500 and the next is 800-900 but it's been pretty consistent.Tennessee has four straight days over 400 and today over 500 cases. Certainly not on a good trend.
I'm shocked it hasn't spike with all the jackassery I've witnessed over the last couple of weeks.The Commish said:Florida has been double that since April...with spikes here and there of 900-1000 and we aren't even flinching. We have had some delay days where one day it will bbe 400-500 and the next is 800-900 but it's been pretty consistent.
Brewster is the largest county in Texas. It is 6 times the size of Rhode Island, and has only 1 confirmed case of COVID. Not death... case!culdeus said:Cases keep going up but hospital stays and death down in Texas. I'm generally ok with that.
Agreed...though, to be fair, based on what we've been through compared to others, we've been really "open" this whole time. And we are sliding ever closer to that magic "1" on rt.live. Our "norm" would definitely be considered unacceptable in several other places...we definitely aren't going by the "guidelines" that were laid out. We'd be resetting every 3rd day. The one thing I do appreciate is the effort to get more testing done. We're better than a lot of places in that regard.I'm shocked it hasn't spike with all the jackassery I've witnessed over the last couple of weeks.
I'm fat and old... what should I do?Friday comes and there aren't any bad indicators I think this thing is for all intents contained.
Stay away from crowded indoor spaces, planes, public ####ters, and nursing homes. Wear masks indoors and stuff. Profit.
If I was black, fat, or old I'd have a different attitude. Any combination of those and I'd have a REALLY different attitude.
I recommend drinking lots of beer. Outside of that....I'm fat and old... what should I do?
Be more careful than me. I mean reality is if in more than one of the risk factors you should keep a dramatically lower profile.I'm fat and old... what should I do?
How many people live there, 12?Brewster is the largest county in Texas. It is 6 times the size of Rhode Island, and has only 1 confirmed case of COVID. Not death... case!
Just about. There are only like 6 small cities. Most of the county is a national park.How many people live there, 12?
UPDATE: My mother is home from the hospital. She ended up with a pretty mild effect overall. She had a cough, was exhausted, needed a little oxygen along the way, but has bounced back pretty well. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to address her other health issue (dizziness and low blood counts), and tell us we need to let the virus run its course so they can analyze her data without the interference from the viral effects. So, more to come, but the good news is that she seemed to kick COVID's ###.I just found out my 83 yr old mother has tested positive. She fell a few weeks ago and twisted up her knee and broke her hand. She spent a few days in the hospital and then needed to go to a rehab facility. They tested her before she could be admitted to the rehab place and was negative. She spent almost 2 weeks at the rehab facility. She has been home about 6 days and has been suffering from dizzy spells. Went for blood work a couple days ago and her counts are all low (have been for the past few tests). Made an appointment with hematologist for next week, but today, in addition to the dizziness, she was complaining of stomach pain and nausea. My sister took her to the ER. In addition to suspecting an internal bleed somewhere, she has now tested positive for COVID. Meanwhile, my father (coming up on his 89th b-day) is in a memory care unit of a home where there have now been two staffers and one resident at the facility who have tested positive. None of them were directly in the memory care unit, but... This sucks. It feels like I am just waiting for the inevitable.
The bill for this will be $7,453,679.23. Cash or Charge?UPDATE: My mother is home from the hospital. She ended up with a pretty mild effect overall. She had a cough, was exhausted, needed a little oxygen along the way, but has bounced back pretty well. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to address her other health issue (dizziness and low blood counts), and tell us we need to let the virus run its course so they can analyze her data without the interference from the viral effects. So, more to come, but the good news is that she seemed to kick COVID's ###.
Based just on percentages and common sense, there is no reason that there should be a massive wave of infections as only a small percentage of the population is rioting. There should be a statistical increase in cases starting within the next few days. But the numbers of participants isn’t going to lead to eye-popping numbers.It was from the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bunch of science deniers in here.
No one is saying that a combination of masks and social distancing doesn't cut the risk a small degree (and nowhere near enough to justify destroying the economy over). But Non-medical masks are simply Kabuki Theater at this point.
I've got a bunch of crow in the refrigerator that I'll have to eat if there's a massive wave of infections with hundreds of thousands of deaths in the next 10 days (with all the rioting going on we should see a tsunami of patients and deaths...unless we've been fed a crock of dung these past 4 months).