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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

Numbers back up at Covid worldometers.  Over 121,000 new cases (led by Brazil) and over 4,900 deaths.  If this is the high point of deaths for the week, then the downward trend on deaths will continue.  Let's hope so.

 
tri-man 47 said:
Numbers back up at Covid worldometers.  Over 121,000 new cases (led by Brazil) and over 4,900 deaths.  If this is the high point of deaths for the week, then the downward trend on deaths will continue.  Let's hope so.
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Mexico has already reported 1,092 tonight after the reset vs. 470 yesterday

 
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Nathan R. Jessep said:
Between faulty reporting, data mishaps (which we, LA, have had several... for real examples, "system was down so no new cases today, they'll be reported tomorrow" and "3 new labs with 2-month old results came online today and are included in today's numbers"), I still contend the daily case counts are not a reliable indicator.  Active cases (which means recoveries have to be accounted for) and percentage of positive tests are, to me, the things to watch for, outside of deaths and hospitalizations (and specifically, hospitalizations as a percentage of hospital capacity).
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The other metric that my wife is monitoring is the % positives.  If you're doing sufficient testing, it's below 10%. Above that and you're not testing enough.

 
The Z Machine said:
The other metric that my wife is monitoring is the % positives.  If you're doing sufficient testing, it's below 10%. Above that and you're not testing enough.
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While I'm sure there's a "level" of positives to be monitored ... are we sure that it's 10% all over?

 
Connecticut update

I finally took the time to do a daily tally of the data since the outbreak (tests, positives, hospitalizations, and deaths).  Here is a little info on each:

Tests performed
Governor Lamont said he wants to see 42K tests per week.  We have been right around 44K per week for the last 3 weeks.  We were kinda slow to the testing party, considering our proximity to NYC, but we are now on a good path.  According to worldometer, CT ranks 9th in testing at this point.

Confirmed positives
Currently sitting at 43,091.  As @The Z Machine just said above, and I agree, your percentage is a direct result of testing.  In April, we had 24,143 positives out of 80,533 tests (30%).  In May, we had 13,437 positives out of 149,789 tests (9%).  And just in the last week, we had 1,803 positives out of 44,627 tests (4%).

Hospitalizations
Currently sitting at 406.  CT hit it's high mark of 1,972 on 22 Apr.  Since that time, we have dropped a total of 1,566, and had only 2 days where hospitalizations slightly increased (5 May & 25 May).

Deaths
Current total is 3,989.  We got hammered for a 3 week stretch from the middle of April thru the first week of May.  In total, we lost 69 in March, 2,238 in April, 1,637 in May, and only 45 in the first 3 days of June.  The 45 lost in the last 3 days is very noteworthy, because it is the lowest 3 day total since March, and we even hit single digits on 2 June.

Notes
- According to worldometer, our deaths per case is still sky high.  CT has 1,119 deaths per M and 12,086 cases per M, for a percentage of 9.26.  The national average is 5.73%.  The only other state 8% or above is Michigan (9.60%).
- Steady eddy on RtLive.  We have been in between .82 and .85 every day since 15 April.

 
MN hospitalizations have been dropping the last week or so. Looks like maybe we peaked around 5/28 at about 600 hospitalizations (max in ICU on any given day was about 260).  Graph Data Table

Obviously remains to be seen what effect the protests will have on cases and hospitalizations. Fingers crossed X. 

 
FBG26 said:
MN hospitalizations have been dropping the last week or so. Looks like maybe we peaked around 5/28 at about 600 hospitalizations (max in ICU on any given day was about 260).  Graph Data Table

Obviously remains to be seen what effect the protests will have on cases and hospitalizations. Fingers crossed X. 
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As a Stage 3 business owner I really hope we aren’t delayed...

 
In Idaho, they have stuck with the federal guidelines for reopening and are looking to hit Stage 4 next Saturday.

Their 3rd criteria is the toughest one:

3. NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES

Criteria: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period.” (Probable cases are included.)

OR

Criteria: “Downward trend of positive COVID-19 PCR tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (including flat or increasing volume of tests).”

Metrics: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period … OR downward trend (in positive percentage) over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 5% laboratory PCR positivity on average over same 14-day period.”
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They had a 2 day spike that put Stage 3 in danger but the last qualifier, 5% positive testing percentage, saved them as they were at 4.3% Data on that doesn't seem readily available so I have no idea if they might be cooking the books but hopefully it holds. 

 
jamny said:
In Idaho, they have stuck with the federal guidelines for reopening and are looking to hit Stage 4 next Saturday.

Their 3rd criteria is the toughest one:

They had a 2 day spike that put Stage 3 in danger but the last qualifier, 5% positive testing percentage, saved them as they were at 4.3% Data on that doesn't seem readily available so I have no idea if they might be cooking the books but hopefully it holds. 
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No need to tell you this as a fellow NY'er, but a state like Idaho with 83 deaths, a max of 2 in one day, over a 75 day period, is probably okay to go for it. Glad to see those kind of numbers exist somewhere. No subway, major international airport, or major league pro sports teams to be concerned with either. Things like theater and close tight restaurants/bars, that will still be tough there as potential spreader events, but other than that, they're in pretty good shape IMO. Enjoy.

 
bcat01 said:
CR69 said:
Well that's not good 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/04/report-five-alabama-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-workouts/
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This happened at a 50 person practice.  The outbreaks from the mass protests should be interesting in 2 weeks.
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The article does not say if any of the workout was indoors, or if any of the players were wearing masks or engaging in any other type of social distancing, or if any of the players had traveled together, etc. This could be an anomaly.

 
CR69 said:
Well that's not good 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/04/report-five-alabama-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-workouts/
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Yesterday it was announced that 5 Oklahoma State players tested positive

Gabe Ikard @GabeIkard

Some of Oklahoma State’s incoming freshmen football players were supposed to arrive in Stillwater yesterday. They were contacted and told not to report. I was told that happened because “5 players tested positive for coronavirus.”

 
Penguin said:
Yesterday it was announced that 5 Oklahoma State players tested positive

Gabe Ikard @GabeIkard

Some of Oklahoma State’s incoming freshmen football players were supposed to arrive in Stillwater yesterday. They were contacted and told not to report. I was told that happened because “5 players tested positive for coronavirus.”
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Well at least Texas is limiting capacity to 50% for sporting events. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
No need to tell you this as a fellow NY'er, but a state like Idaho with 83 deaths, a max of 2 in one day, over a 75 day period, is probably okay to go for it. Glad to see those kind of numbers exist somewhere. No subway, major international airport, or major league pro sports teams to be concerned with either. Things like theater and close tight restaurants/bars, that will still be tough there as potential spreader events, but other than that, they're in pretty good shape IMO. Enjoy.
Click to expand...
i montana we have an even lower affected/death rate.

it is good to be a hick.

 
jobarules said:
This is pure stupidity

With such rapid results of tests, why not just have the workout on Friday?
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I didn’t see in the article, were they tested because they were showing symptoms or did they just test everyone as a precaution? Either way it makes no sense to continue while waiting for results.

 
70% of people infected with the coronavirus did not pass it to anyone, preliminary research shows. Superspreading events account for most transmission.

https://us.yahoo.com/news/70-people-infected-coronavirus-did-213700577.html

Super-spreader events, in which one person infects a disproportionately large number of others, are the primary means by which the coronavirus spreads, new research suggests. 

A group of epidemiologists in Hong Kong found that just 20% of cases studied there were responsible for 80% of all coronavirus transmission. The researchers also found that 70% of people infected with the coronavirus didn't pass it to anyone else, and that all super-spreading events involved indoor social gatherings.

"That's the picture we have so far," Ben Cowling, one of the study co-authors, told Business Insider. "Super-spreading events are happening more than we expected, more than what could be explained by chance. The frequency of super-spreading is beyond what we could have imagined."

That information could inform how policymakers craft rules to keep people safe.

"Now we know which measures might give you the most bang for your buck — if we could stop the super-spreading from happening, we'd benefit the most people," Cowling said.

Super-spreader events around the world have created clusters of coronavirus infections that cropped up almost overnight. A South Korean churchgoer infected 43 others in February, a singer infected 53 people at a choir practice in Washington a month later, and a New York lawyer was responsible for passing the coronavirus to more than 100 others in his community. 

For their research, Cowling and his colleagues examined more than 1,000 coronavirus cases in Hong Kong between January 23 and April 28.

They found that super-spreading was the primary means of transmission in the city. About 350 of the cases analyzed were a result of community spread, while the rest were imported from other countries. Within the community-spread cases, more than half were connected to six super-spreading events.

The term "super-spreader" refers to an infected person who transmits the virus to more people than a typical infected person would. A virus' R0 value (pronounced "R-naught") refers to the average number of people that one sick person goes on to infect in a group with no immunity. The R0 of the coronavirus, so far, seems to hover between 2 and 2.5. 

But in the case of these Hong Kong super-spreading events, one person infected at least three times that many people. In fact, 20% of cases caused 80% of transmissions, a majority of which were linked to super-spreading events at a wedding, temple, and multiple bars in the city's Lan Kwai Fong district.

The remaining 20% of transmissions were result of another just 10% of cases, when infected patients passed along the virus to one, or at most two, other people — generally someone in their households. 

"Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures," the study authors wrote, adding that reducing super-spreading events could have a considerable effect in lowering the virus' R0.

The 80-20 rule

In a New York Times article about his team's study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, Cowling wrote: "You might be wondering if our study, or the experience of Hong Kong, with its small number of total infections, is more broadly representative. We think so."

Indeed, other research supports his findings: A 2011 study found that 20% of a population was responsible for 80% of the transmission of many diseases, including malaria. This is known as the "80-20 rule."

Some scientists think that the ratio could be even smaller. A model from researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests only 10% of coronaviruses cases account for 80% of global transmission.

Preliminary research that examined more than 200 coronavirus cases in Israel found that between 1% and 10% of cases were linked to 80% of transmission. Another study from Shenzhen, China yielded a similar conclusion: between 8% and 9% of cases caused 80% of transmission.

Super-spreading events happen in crowded, indoor areas

Coronavirus super-spreader events have shared a few key characteristics: They've involved indoor gatherings in which lots of people from different households were in close, extended contact.

For example, a superspreader event in Arkansas involved a pastor and his wife who attended church events and a bible study group a few days before they developed coronavirus symptoms. Of the 92 people they came into contact with, 35 got sick. Seven had to be hospitalized. Three died.

Offices and restaurants can be infection hotspots, too. A study of an outbreak in a call center in Seoul, South Korea, revealed that almost half the employees on one floor got infected. Nearly all of them sat in the same section. 

In that sense, it's not that certain individual people are more contagious than others or shed more virus. Instead, there's a type of activity that gives individuals access to a greater number of people in areas conducive to the virus' spread, Cowling said.

Research has found time and again that the risk of coronavirus transmission is higher indoors, in poorly ventilated spaces where lots of people have sustained contact. 

"You can't have a super-spreading event unless there are a lot of people around, so you have to be very careful still about gatherings of people of any size — that includes religious services," William Schaffner, an infectious-disease expert at Vanderbilt University, previously told Business Insider.

If we target gatherings that could become super-spreader events, we could avoid more lockdowns

Cowling said the study findings could inform countries' responses to future waves of coronavirus infections.

"We'll be in a much better position to deal with the second wave this fall," he said. "This knowledge gives us the chance to take more measured actions without going into full lockdown again."

A few countries, like Japan and South Korea, have already shown that it's possible to ride out an outbreak without dramatically restricting citizens' movements or shutting down all stores, restaurants, and schools. 

Japan's success stems from adherence to the "3 C's rule." The government told people to avoid closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings — all of which are ripe for super-spreading events.

Going forward, Cowling thinks other countries could benefit from instituting rules that target the source of most transmissions (in addition to continued contact tracing and testing), rather than blanket shelter-in-place orders.

"Anything outdoors is fine. I'm less concerned about protests," he said, adding that restaurants and bars could also probably operate at 50% capacity, with empty tables between diners.

"We need to figure out how many people per square meter is acceptable," Cowling said. "Meetings and religious activities could go on, but with reduced numbers of people." 
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@Don Hutson - makes ya wonder what would have happened if we would have responded more quickly but with a less drastic approach (e.g., following the example of Japan, for example). Could we have slowed the virus without the economic turmoil?  We'll never know.

--

Sadly, a new high in cases at Covid worldometers. 130,000 new cases (a new high); 5,500 deaths.  Yes, more cases is tied to more testing.  But it's still a lot of cases.  Brazil with almost 32,000, ahead of the US' 22,000 cases.  As has been the trend, seventeen countries with over 1,000 new cases.  A  9% increase in South Africa; a 15% increase in Nepal; a 10% increase in Ethiopia. Not a good day.

 
tri-man 47 said:
@Don Hutson - makes ya wonder what would have happened if we would have responded more quickly but with a less drastic approach (e.g., following the example of Japan, for example). Could we have slowed the virus without the economic turmoil?  We'll never know.

--

Sadly, a new high in cases at Covid worldometers. 130,000 new cases (a new high); 5,500 deaths.  Yes, more cases is tied to more testing.  But it's still a lot of cases.  Brazil with almost 32,000, ahead of the US' 22,000 cases.  As has been the trend, seventeen countries with over 1,000 new cases.  A  9% increase in South Africa; a 15% increase in Nepal; a 10% increase in Ethiopia. Not a good day.
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Only 5 deaths in Spain yesterday? Nice work.

 
TheWinz said:
A deeper dive into worldometer, and SD & MO stand out to me as well, for opposite reasons.  SD ranks 14th in cases per M, but 38th in deaths per M.  On the flip side, MO ranks 40th in cases per M, but 25th in deaths per M.  Is SD testing alot of healthy folks while MO is testing alot of sick folks?
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Likely related to demographic differences of the folks who have been infected.   SD infections are concentrated in meat processing plants, with a higher percentage of younger Hispanic workers.  MO infections likely concentrated in poorer communities, older folks.

 
culdeus said:
Who probably got to see the data 
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Did you actually read the article?

The World Health Organization and several world governments changed their coronavirus policies and resumed trials of hydroxychloroquine because they got questionable data from the company, The Guardian reported Wednesday

The WHO announced Wednesday that those trials of the anti-malarial drug would now resume.

 
shader said:
And now for some good news.  The job numbers today are awesome.  Proof that what shuts down can come back.

That isn't the case with lives.  
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Yeah...as we move back towards opening things up...some of the furloughed or laid off people are getting jobs back.  Definitely a good sign for people needing it...

 
shader said:
And now for some good news.  The job numbers today are awesome.  Proof that what shuts down can come back.

That isn't the case with lives.  
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You would be very wrong on this.  Thousands of businesses will go under.  You also have PPP propping things up in many cases.

 
shader said:
And now for some good news.  The job numbers today are awesome.  Proof that what shuts down can come back.

That isn't the case with lives.  
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there's a bunch of interesting perspective out there re job report.  On the other side...

Justin Wolfers

"Another attempt at perspective. 20 million people lost their jobs, causing unemployment to rise near Depression levels. Today's data says 1-in-8 of those jobs returned. But the real question is what'll happen to the rest? Even if half return we're replaying the Great Recession."

 
shader said:
And now for some good news.  The job numbers today are awesome.  Proof that what shuts down can come back.

That isn't the case with lives.  
Click to expand...
Keep in mind that in order for the businesses to have their PPP loans forgiven, they needed to return payroll to specific levels for a certain amount of time. This could be resulting in furloughed employees returning to work even though revenue isn't there to support their employment. 

I would not conclude just yet that this is a sign of the state of the economy. It's a sign of the state of government bailouts. 

 
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shader said:
And now for some good news.  The job numbers today are awesome.  Proof that what shuts down can come back.

That isn't the case with lives.  
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Jeez, a person posts something that sounds good, and gets jumped on for it.  Just smile and nod, please.  You know, like when someone shows you their ugly baby, and you say, aww, how cute.

 
So with China finished testing the entire city of Wuhan, some 10 million people, and supposedly only finding a few hundred asymptomatic cases does that mean anything? They were supposedly looking for a second wave and didn't find one. Since they are about 4 months ahead of us, does any of their data add anything meaningful to understanding the trajectory of the pandemic or just BS?

 
ericttspikes said:
So with China finished testing the entire city of Wuhan, some 10 million people, and supposedly only finding a few hundred asymptomatic cases does that mean anything? They were supposedly looking for a second wave and didn't find one. Since they are about 4 months ahead of us, does any of their data add anything meaningful to understanding the trajectory of the pandemic or just BS?
Click to expand...
I can project some of the responses here, that's for sure.

 
ericttspikes said:
So with China finished testing the entire city of Wuhan, some 10 million people, and supposedly only finding a few hundred asymptomatic cases does that mean anything? They were supposedly looking for a second wave and didn't find one. Since they are about 4 months ahead of us, does any of their data add anything meaningful to understanding the trajectory of the pandemic or just BS?
Click to expand...
Tough to trust China rn. If this is an indisputable fact, then it's obviously good news. I'd like to learn more about it.

 
ericttspikes said:
So with China finished testing the entire city of Wuhan, some 10 million people, and supposedly only finding a few hundred asymptomatic cases does that mean anything? They were supposedly looking for a second wave and didn't find one. Since they are about 4 months ahead of us, does any of their data add anything meaningful to understanding the trajectory of the pandemic or just BS?
Click to expand...
How would those numbers from China change anything about the USA?  They stomped out the virus, the USA has not.

 
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