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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Where are people going to look at what is happening state by state?  I've been using 91-DIVOC as the best of what I have bookmarked, but even that site is sometimes tough to look at recent trends for a state of interest. 

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10 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/21/opinion/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer-infections.html?referringSource=articleShare

Basically in line with what I've seen in general... weather will slow the rate of spread, especially in super hot places like Phoenix, etc, but won't be enough by itself to get R0 down to 1.0 due to the novelty of the virus.

Combined with mitigation efforts?  Seems like it would make things easier to get this under control through late Sept/early Oct where I am (mid-Atlantic).  I'd bet money most or all of the US will "shut down" again in the fall though.

Have you seen this? A lot of places teetering on the 1.0 limit

Frankly with reopening  you are going to need a lot of help from the weather so I hope this data bears out

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28 minutes ago, shader said:

It seems like many people think that they've really discovered something with their "isolate the old" strategy.  

The reality is that it's not a strategy at all.  EVERYBODY thinks we need to isolate the old.  So the strategy usually isn't about isolating the old, it's about NOT isolating the young.  

Which, as you said, is quite short-sighted, and will end up being more dangerous to the older ones in the long run anyway.

In Washington State, 60% of new cases in the two most populous counties come from nursing homes.   But that creates a question of how they got it, since they've been in quarantine.   The answer is that health care workers became infected and brought it in after reopening began.   So I guess we just need to isolate the old and health care workers.   And health care workers' families.   And those peoples' friends and coworkers.  And their contacts.  But other than that, it's a solid strategy.  

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The NOVA episode from Sunday evening on COVID-19 is pretty good.  

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30 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Your strategy is what then?  Not everyone is as lucky as others to have a job where they can stay safely in their home. 

80% of the death is from people age 65 and older.  Allow them and people with diagnosed underlying health conditions that have been shown to react poorly with this virus to continue sheltering in place by incentivizing their employers to keep them on payrolls by giving the employer tax breaks.  Until when?  The Families First Coronavirus Response Act is in effect until 12/31/20.  Addend that Act and add these people to it.   

States continue to open via their phases with precautions.  You'll still have cases, but you neutralize the death toll. 

If I were to have a strategy, it would definitely include keeping those 65 and up indoors.  We are in total agreement on that.  

What is your strategy for everyone else?

 

 

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43 minutes ago, -fish- said:

"Over 65" is an oversimplification of the at-risk group.   The highest percentage of mortality is in people that have underlying conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, etc.   As people get older, they tend to develop one or more of these conditions.   But it is also a factor in why more black and latino people are dying in the US.   

Nearly half of the adult US population has hypertension.   You going to make them self-isolate too?

"Let's make old people self isolate while the rest of the population spreads virus" is a selfish, short-sighted and dangerous approach that will ensure that we're stuck in this cycle for years.  

Does not compute. 

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3 hours ago, shader said:

Trolling me bro? :lmao:

Look, as @Doug B said, he hedged his bets.  But look at what happened with the WHO and their infamous tweet in February.  It has haunted them ever since.

My point is that no one will remember all the hedging of bets when this thing explodes into a second wave. They will remember that the head of the CDC said that the US is ready to reopen.

Yea, poor form on my part, sorry.

Will it explode though? Yes, infections are sure to go up when the environmental conditions change in the Fall but we've seen what bad looks like (NYC/CHICAGO/LA) and what not bad looks like (a helluva lot of everywhere else). And I'm not saying 80,000 dead is not bad, that's not it. I'm saying where we started in late February/early March was hundreds of thousands dead depending on who you followed, we locked down...sorta and managed to keep most healthcare systems underwhelmed. So much so that they furloughed staff because they had no patients to treat. I contend we can manage an opening of he country and what that means in terms of this virus and spread. We are a ton more knowledgeable now compared to 2 months ago (regardless of who's camp you land in).

I don't know, hell you went to a restaurant the other day and I'm not comfortable enough to do that yet. Between the two of us, I think we could come to some mutual feeling of safe virus management/mitigation and agree on it without sacrificing half the population in the process.

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48 minutes ago, Battersbox said:

Not my argument but my take was that JPLVR was talking about the wider media, not specific posters in here.

CNN, March 10th: "Contact Tracing Is The Key To America's Coronavirus Strategy"

Also, from January 27th: CDC and LAX assisting in coronavirus contact tracing

Lots of hits at FoxNews, too. No hits at OANN.com, though. (Aside from a story which claimed that contact tracing was a secret plot to control the elections.)

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10 minutes ago, joffer said:

The NOVA episode from Sunday evening on COVID-19 is pretty good.  

apparently even when a vaccine is developed, it will have a short shelf life (a few days), even if shipped refrigerated.

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3 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Will it explode though? Yes, infections are sure to go up when the environmental conditions change in the Fall but we've seen what bad looks like (NYC/CHICAGO/LA) and what not bad looks like (a helluva lot of everywhere else). And I'm not saying 80,000 dead is not bad, that's not it. I'm saying where we started in late February/early March was hundreds of thousands dead depending on who you followed, we locked down...sorta and managed to keep most healthcare systems underwhelmed. So much so that they furloughed staff because they had no patients to treat. I contend we can manage an opening of he country and what that means in terms of this virus and spread. We are a ton more knowledgeable now compared to 2 months ago (regardless of who's camp you land in).

1) According to Worldometers you already have more dead than the revised low estimate from IHME for early August at 95,836

2) According to this graph (and I must attest I do not know whether it is precise) most states are teetering on an R number of 0.9 or more. It really won't take much to bring it up above 1

That would argue in favor of being conservative right now (and obviously learn from what the rest of the world is doing, that can be applied to the US)

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34 minutes ago, Brony said:

Where are people going to look at what is happening state by state?  I've been using 91-DIVOC as the best of what I have bookmarked, but even that site is sometimes tough to look at recent trends for a state of interest. 

I've been using RTlive as a good snapshot

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Besides the doctor who says he got it through his eyes on a flight even though he hasn't tested positive, any reports on recent cases due to flying?

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14 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Yea, poor form on my part, sorry.

Will it explode though? Yes, infections are sure to go up when the environmental conditions change in the Fall but we've seen what bad looks like (NYC/CHICAGO/LA) and what not bad looks like (a helluva lot of everywhere else). And I'm not saying 80,000 dead is not bad, that's not it. I'm saying where we started in late February/early March was hundreds of thousands dead depending on who you followed, we locked down...sorta and managed to keep most healthcare systems underwhelmed. So much so that they furloughed staff because they had no patients to treat. I contend we can manage an opening of he country and what that means in terms of this virus and spread. We are a ton more knowledgeable now compared to 2 months ago (regardless of who's camp you land in).

I don't know, hell you went to a restaurant the other day and I'm not comfortable enough to do that yet. Between the two of us, I think we could come to some mutual feeling of safe virus management/mitigation and agree on it without sacrificing half the population in the process.

Without a strategy to contain it, the question is "why wouldn't it explode". The most important piece if any strategy is knowledge. That means knowing where the virus is. Without knowing where it is then it's only a matter of time before it explodes. Knowing where it is requires good testing and contact tracing. We don't have good testing and contact tracing yet. We should, but discussing why we don't is political and can't be discussed here. The bottom line is that it should be assumed it will explode unless we have a strategy to cool it off before its sparks start a fire. 

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Just now, Politician Spock said:

Without a strategy to contain it, the question is "why wouldn't it explode". The most important piece if any strategy is knowledge. That means knowing where the virus is. Without knowing where it is then it's only a matter of time before it explodes. Knowing where it is requires good testing and contact tracing. We don't have good testing and contact tracing yet. We should, but discussing why we don't is political and can't be discussed here. The bottom line is that it should be assumed it will explode unless we have a strategy to cool it off before its sparks start a fire. 

10-4, so prep for the inevitable 2nd wave that is coming and hunker down :thumbup:

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26 minutes ago, -fish- said:

In Washington State, 60% of new cases in the two most populous counties come from nursing homes.   But that creates a question of how they got it, since they've been in quarantine.   The answer is that health care workers became infected and brought it in after reopening began.   So I guess we just need to isolate the old and health care workers.   And health care workers' families.   And those peoples' friends and coworkers.  And their contacts.  But other than that, it's a solid strategy.  

Exactly this. Is isolation of any cohort really possible?

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6 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Without a strategy to contain it, the question is "why wouldn't it explode". 

Maybe it mutates into a much less lethal strain like what some people think happened with the Spanish Flu. Admittedly, after a second wave but we don't know if it won't happen sooner with this one.

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1 hour ago, msommer said:

I don't really read mr anonymous' posts anymore but I just googled and found that in 2019 there were 1.6m people employed in nursing homes. Not sure I can answer if 100k is a high number or not or whether these people were clerks or nurses.

We found out yday that 10m or so 65 yr old+ people participate in the workforce or want to (and that this trend is increasing). One would assume it is at least partly about the pay.
What specifically should be done at state and federal level for them (even if they do not have pre existing conditions like your secretary)?

Here's another chance for you to read about it...

Health-Care Industry Loses 1.4 Million Jobs in Pandemic

 

Quote

But even providers treating patients vulnerable to the virus weren’t spared. Hospitals shed 135,000 workers, and nursing and residential care payrolls fell by 113,000

 

A health crisis is probably not the best time to be shedding workers from the health care industry, but alas that's what these shutdowns have caused. And it turns out that we really shouldn't be cutting staff in the Covid-19 death factories that are nursing homes. Silly me, I fell for the notion that this was about saving lives.

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Just now, beer 30 said:

10-4, so prep for the inevitable 2nd wave that is coming and hunker down :thumbup:

I don't know if I'd want to use the term wave.  Sweden's no lock down approach has resulted in a plateau, not a wave. Their death numbers have been pretty consistent for about six weeks straight. So by us heading towards doing what they've been doing (in a roundabout way) we will probably increase and plateau like they did, instead of creating a 2nd wave. The problem is Sweden just recently moved into 1st in the world in COVID-19 deaths per capita seven day rolling average. In other words, more people are dying in Sweden per capita every week from COVID-19 than anywhere else in the world, so it's not exactly a desirable plateau to be on, but it is the quickest path the herd immunity. 

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11 minutes ago, jamny said:

Maybe it mutates into a much less lethal strain like what some people think happened with the Spanish Flu. Admittedly, after a second wave but we don't know if it won't happen sooner with this one.

Or it could mutate into something worse. 

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9 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Here's another chance for you to read about it...

Health-Care Industry Loses 1.4 Million Jobs in Pandemic

A health crisis is probably not the best time to be shedding workers from the health care industry, but alas that's what these shutdowns have caused. And it turns out that we really shouldn't be cutting staff in the Covid-19 death factories that are nursing homes. Silly me, I fell for the notion that this was about saving lives.

"Shutdowns" didn't cause health care job losses.  A global pandemic caused it.  People were and still are afraid to do certain things, irrespective of government "shutdowns".  I stopped going to restaurants well before government stopped it.  As of yesterday, I'm allowed to go to a restaurant.  Still won't.

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2 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Or it could mutate into something worse. 

Of course but that wouldn't answer your question.

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1 minute ago, Rich Conway said:

"Shutdowns" didn't cause health care job losses.  A global pandemic caused it.  People were and still are afraid to do certain things, irrespective of government "shutdowns".  I stopped going to restaurants well before government stopped it.  As of yesterday, I'm allowed to go to a restaurant.  Still won't.

It doesn't even matter the cause. The point is that it's a mistake that doesn't need to be repeated. It's also a mistake that not every state made. Some states like Florida directed resources to their nursing homes. Others like New York directed sick Covid patients to theirs.

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

Until when?  The Families First Coronavirus Response Act is in effect until 12/31/20.  Addend that Act and add these people to it.   

 

While this act is a positive step, it only provides 2 weeks of pay due to quarantine or covid diagnosis.

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1 minute ago, jamny said:

Of course but that wouldn't answer your question.

True. But government coming up with and executing a good strategy to contain it is much preferable to just hoping it mutates into something less deadly.

But again, that would be political discussion. So maybe your idea of just hoping it mutates into something less deadly is the only hope we have that can be discussed here.   

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56 minutes ago, -fish- said:

In Washington State, 60% of new cases in the two most populous counties come from nursing homes.   But that creates a question of how they got it, since they've been in quarantine.   The answer is that health care workers became infected and brought it in after reopening began.   So I guess we just need to isolate the old and health care workers.   And health care workers' families.   And those peoples' friends and coworkers.  And their contacts.  But other than that, it's a solid strategy.  

Can the perfect ideal be achieved, no.

Can reasonable measures be taken to accomplish it to a large degree, yes.

Make the choke point the healthcare workers.

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30 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

10-4, so prep for the inevitable 2nd wave that is coming and hunker down :thumbup:

Yes.  Great advice. 

 

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Posted (edited)

During Cuomo's press conference today on the child inflammatory cases:

Last Thursday there were 7 countries that found cases  and 17 states

TODAY, there are 13 countries and 25 states that have found cases.

He says that he believes the more they look, the more they are going to find.

 

If you want to hear the snippet where he said this, go to this tweet from Reuters:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1263561450318032897?s=20

 

Edited by shader

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17 minutes ago, shader said:
51 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

10-4, so prep for the inevitable 2nd wave that is coming and hunker down :thumbup:

Yes.  Great advice. 

What are some good things we can start doing here beyond just stocking up on things that were hard to find ~2 months back?

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2 hours ago, worrierking said:

Louisiana had another one of those crazy spikes in reported cases today.  They had a lab that had been doing testing but was unable to report digitally to the state (what, are they running Windows 95?), so they reported all their tests today, dating back to March 25. More than 600 cases from that one lab alone.  That's the third time this has happened this month.  Ignore those crazy one-day jumps in our numbers. This is very frustrating for those of us trying to track things.  Hospitalizations and ventilator usage continue to fall steadily.

yep, and despite that big jump including older cases, our total % positive overall still DECREASED. We are now at 11.95% positive (of all tests completed). 

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1 minute ago, Slapdash said:

What are some good things we can start doing here beyond just stocking up on things that were hard to find ~2 months back?

I have no idea other than staying stocked up.

I’ve told my family we are going to do everything we can to keep unnecessary spending down.  We are to build a bigger nest egg of cash, as I personally think the economic devastation of the 2nd wave will be worse.  
 

Many companies I work with are trying to ensure they can work from home the next time and I think that’s smart.

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Colleges rentals are gonna be really interesting.  Some went online (Cal system).  Some are going (UT, ND).  Most haven't decided.  But if I pay for two apartment rentals for my kids (12 month lease required on each), and 3 weeks into the semester they decide to send them home I am gonna be uber pissed off.  Seems to me they should delay announcements until end of July, with the likelihood of being online.  Otherwise they are forcing parents into a $12K rental decision.  Online seems to be the smart decision, and then allow kids to take a semester off or for freshman start a semester late.

Total mess though.

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1 hour ago, jamny said:

Besides the doctor who says he got it through his eyes on a flight even though he hasn't tested positive, any reports on recent cases due to flying?

I didn't get it (I don't think...) but I did fly from Phoenix to DC Saturday and back on Sunday. It was surreal. The airports were both empty. Like, totally empty except for a few gates. There were four of us total in first class, and probably 15 others total in coach. Everyone was required to wear masks for the duration of the flight. It sucked, but you get used to it pretty quickly. I just hadn't worn one for so long without taking it off. No food except a bag of cookies was given out on the entire 4.5 hour flight.

I really miss travelling, but travelling like this is no bueno. The normal energy of the airport and flight was just gone. It felt like I stumbled into a ghost town.

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37 minutes ago, the moops said:

While this act is a positive step, it only provides 2 weeks of pay due to quarantine or covid diagnosis.

As written it's a maximum of 12 weeks paid leave (depending on the qualifying reason for requesting it).  Two under Emergency Paid Sick Leave and then an additional ten under the Emergency FMLA Expansion.  As it is the people I'm referring to are not included in it, but there could be an addendum or new Act to include the most vulnerable so they aren't forced to return to work as businesses reopen.  I was using it as an example.  I have 6 staff members out on FMLA under this Act after reopening on May 1st.    

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9 minutes ago, shader said:

I have no idea other than staying stocked up.

I’ve told my family we are going to do everything we can to keep unnecessary spending down.  We are to build a bigger nest egg of cash, as I personally think the economic devastation of the 2nd wave will be worse.  
 

Many companies I work with are trying to ensure they can work from home the next time and I think that’s smart.

Getting more physical cash is a good call.  A chest freezer is another thing that got in really short supply, but I don't really have space for one inside.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, kutta said:

I didn't get it (I don't think...) but I did fly from Phoenix to DC Saturday and back on Sunday. It was surreal. The airports were both empty. Like, totally empty except for a few gates. There were four of us total in first class, and probably 15 others total in coach. Everyone was required to wear masks for the duration of the flight. It sucked, but you get used to it pretty quickly. I just hadn't worn one for so long without taking it off. No food except a bag of cookies was given out on the entire 4.5 hour flight.

I really miss travelling, but travelling like this is no bueno. The normal energy of the airport and flight was just gone. It felt like I stumbled into a ghost town.

Thanks. I'm flying to Boise on Saturday with a connection in Dallas. Not looking forward to it but just want to get there. Thankfully first class as well. Did they board rear to front? We're going to wait until coach boards. I don't want to sit there while everyone passes by. I think Delta is doing it but we're flying American.

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32 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Getting more physical cash is a good call.  A chest freezer is another thing that got in really short supply, but I don't really have space for one inside.

 

 

Generator and fuel.  Assume supply chain interruptions on anything in high demand.

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11 minutes ago, shader said:

I have no idea other than staying stocked up.

I’ve told my family we are going to do everything we can to keep unnecessary spending down.  We are to build a bigger nest egg of cash, as I personally think the economic devastation of the 2nd wave will be worse.  
 

Many companies I work with are trying to ensure they can work from home the next time and I think that’s smart.

Absolutely. There’s a ton of businesses that likely need steady business for several months to survive. Any downturn and they will be quick to throw in the towel. More people will go into money conservation mode which will hurt small businesses even harder. 

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1 hour ago, Slapdash said:

What are some good things we can start doing here beyond just stocking up on things that were hard to find ~2 months back?

Learn to homebrew.

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Dear God, please let this be true:

https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/scientists-believe-cannabis-could-help-prevent-treat-coronavirus/

 

 

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58 minutes ago, jamny said:

Thanks. I'm flying to Boise on Saturday with a connection in Dallas. Not looking forward to it but just want to get there. Thankfully first class as well. Did they board rear to front? We're going to wait until coach boards. I don't want to sit there while everyone passes by. I think Delta is doing it but we're flying American.

I'm honestly not even sure how they boarded. There were so few people, when I got the gate 25 minutes before takeoff they were boarding all groups and I was the only one left. They did deplane by rows - first class first, then the rear rows that they called in sections.

I also flew American. I really wouldn't worry too much about people passing by - the plane will be so empty it's probably not worth worrying. 

I usually love the dallas airport, but man, get ready to see a deserted place.

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Posted (edited)

There's no reason that outdoor graduations with social distancing, masks, and perhaps split between two days shouldn't be allowed. There's just no common sense and it's sad. 

Edited by jobarules
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Holy moly some of the posts in this thread..... :shock:

I have to assume this is a regional thing.   SoCal is still pretty much shut down but I have given absolutely zero thought to hoarding supplies or buying a generator or stashing stacks of cash.  Maybe my mentality would be completely different if I were in NYC or something.  

But wow.  OK.

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17 minutes ago, kutta said:

I'm honestly not even sure how they boarded. There were so few people, when I got the gate 25 minutes before takeoff they were boarding all groups and I was the only one left. They did deplane by rows - first class first, then the rear rows that they called in sections.

I also flew American. I really wouldn't worry too much about people passing by - the plane will be so empty it's probably not worth worrying. 

I usually love the dallas airport, but man, get ready to see a deserted place.

My parents lived in Dallas and my brother still does. No airport I've been to more outside of NY

I guess Vino Volo isn't open...

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4 hours ago, Grahamburn said:

I have been paying attention to the Rt.  It takes into account the mitigation, correct?  Without mitigation the estimates for Rt have been ~ between 2-3.  Can't we keep certain mitigation measures in place (as all states are while re-opening) to keep the Rt around 1, which is where it has been for most states throughout the pandemic, until there's a safe vaccine available? 

Meanwhile do everything we can to isolate the vulnerable to reduce the deaths. 

Yes, Rt changes depending upon many variables (most of which are within are control).  So absolutely the plan is to keep the Rt at or below 1.0.  If Rt spikes then we'll need to take more extensive mitigation measures (i.e. but hopefully not another near-national shutdown, God forbid).  The issue is we still don't really know what is required to keep the Rt at 1.0.  That's why slow, phased re-openings make sense.  It enables us to open up and LEARN as we go.  This will differ by region, so what works in Montana may not (i.e. likely won't) in NYC.  And if done right it will FEEL like we moved too slowly...because we did!  But we HAD to because no one know how this virus will be impacted by different mitigation plans, in different geos, at diff times, under diff amounts of co-operation (yes, the human element is nearly impossible to model and will likely change over time as people become lax).  

Indeed, the only thing in your above I disagree with is the "p the Rt around 1, which is where it has been for most states throughout the pandemic."  It's been brought down to around 1.0 because of SiP orders and we all agree that isn't sustainable.  We need to learn how to open up AND not increase the Rt above where it currently seems to be (~1.0).  That's where @Shader thinks the problem lies.  He sees it as unavoidable that the Rt won't spike with re-opening.  I think he's probably right, but I also don't think we know enough to determine what we should do UNLESS we start re-opening.  And even then we'll be debating the seasonal impact and what happens in the Fall/Winter.  We have learned alot over the past few months, but there's still alot more to learn

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, jamny said:

My parents lived in Dallas and my brother still does. No airport I've been to more outside of NY

I guess Vino Volo isn't open...

I go through Dallas at least four times a month in normal months. I love that airport. I didn't go through it this time, but I assume the restaraunts are all closed.

In DC they had a bar that was open and serving food, but they only allowed 10 people in. I was number 9 :)

EDIT: Here's the pics of DCA and PHX I took last Saturday: https://imgur.com/gallery/PT0M5YQ

Edited by kutta
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1 hour ago, Brunell4MVP said:

Colleges rentals are gonna be really interesting.  Some went online (Cal system).  Some are going (UT, ND).  Most haven't decided.  But if I pay for two apartment rentals for my kids (12 month lease required on each), and 3 weeks into the semester they decide to send them home I am gonna be uber pissed off.  Seems to me they should delay announcements until end of July, with the likelihood of being online.  Otherwise they are forcing parents into a $12K rental decision.  Online seems to be the smart decision, and then allow kids to take a semester off or for freshman start a semester late.

Total mess though.

Total mess is right, I own 3 rentals in a college town.  Luckily my complex is across the road from the vet school and some of that would be extremely hard to do on distance learning.  We have a lot of vet and grad students but those nearer campus and higher rents are in serious trouble.  That's not to say I'm not concerned as well.

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9 minutes ago, kutta said:

I go through Dallas at least four times a month in normal months. I love that airport. I didn't go through it this time, but I assume the restaraunts are all closed.

In DC they had a bar that was open and serving food, but they only allowed 10 people in. I was number 9 :)

EDIT: Here's the pics of DCA and PHX I took last Saturday: https://imgur.com/gallery/PT0M5YQ

Wow that's crazy.  I used to travel at least 1-2 times a month back about a decade ago (man, time flies... no pun intended) and I couldn't imagine getting on a plane right now, but it sounds like they're doing their best to mitigate any issues.  

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I haven't totally kept up on the thread, but @Doug B's haplogroup (makes me think of) discussion touched on something I've been wondering about.  I read years ago that bubonic plague may be largely responsible for Europeans being predominantly of A and O blood type - apparently B blood type was particularly susceptible and largely wiped out in areas where the plague reigned.

This NIH paper discusses blood type correlations with different illnesses - e.g., apparently O type is a big risk factor for norovirus.  From the paper :

"Type O blood group is associated with increased incidence of plague, cholera, mumps, and tuberculosis infections; type A blood group is associated with increased incidence of smallpox and Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection; type B blood group is associated with increased incidence of gonorrhea, tuberculosis"

So, it's definitely not an implausible leap to think the Covid-19 could have a strong genetic component.  Maybe not blood types per se (although I thought I read data from some state that suggested A was worse? - need to google later)  To my admittedly amateur mind, the age group curve being so pronounced adds more evidence that it's not a one size fits all sort of disease.

Along similar lines, apparently Germanic Switzerland has been largely spared while French and Italian Switzerland has been hit hard, and the government swears that it is not because of any differing local actions.  Could be related to travel patterns, could be something else.  To me, the whole discussion makes me think that armchair quarterbacking declaring some areas got good results because they were smart and some hard hit areas must have made idiotic decisions is very premature.  There are just so many variables, many of them poorly understood.

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33 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

Holy moly some of the posts in this thread..... :shock:

I have to assume this is a regional thing.   SoCal is still pretty much shut down but I have given absolutely zero thought to hoarding supplies or buying a generator or stashing stacks of cash.  Maybe my mentality would be completely different if I were in NYC or something.  

But wow.  OK.

SoCal isn't really a place where you need a generator.   In the PNW, we have major windstorms, ice storms, and occasional snow that we're unequipped for.  I've lost power for a day or two several times and for two weeks once in the last 10 years.  Now think about what happens if that hits while supply chains are interrupted.   We're already being warned about supply chains being interrupted for meat.   Things like generators and chest freezers are worst case preparedness, but if you need one, you're not going to find it in November if there's a second wave of infections.   For the few hundred bucks it costs to have peace of mind that I don't have to scramble in bad weather in a pandemic, it's totally worth it.

I get that some people think that's overkill.   Read the first 10 pages of this thread when people were saying it was all an overreaction and there was nothing to worry about.

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5 minutes ago, -fish- said:

SoCal isn't really a place where you need a generator.   In the PNW, we have major windstorms, ice storms, and occasional snow that we're unequipped for.  I've lost power for a day or two several times and for two weeks once in the last 10 years.  Now think about what happens if that hits while supply chains are interrupted.   We're already being warned about supply chains being interrupted for meat.   Things like generators and chest freezers are worst case preparedness, but if you need one, you're not going to find it in November if there's a second wave of infections.   For the few hundred bucks it costs to have peace of mind that I don't have to scramble in bad weather in a pandemic, it's totally worth it.

I get that some people think that's overkill.   Read the first 10 pages of this thread when people were saying it was all an overreaction and there was nothing to worry about.

I've been in this thread since the beginning.  I'll admit I was one of the ones that thought it was probably not going to be a huge issue.... but I was open-minded and read just about every post possible (I wouldn't read all the "overnight" posts, but during the day I've been on top of it).

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