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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

Not impressed by that article. Science is based on data, and interpretation thereof, with experiments designed to test observed phenomena. Sometimes the findings are as expected, but certainly not always, and injecting "common sense" is a surefire way to introduce bias.
I'm going to post the "common sense" part here in a spoiler box, to elicit the house's reaction. The things Stadler is proposing should not yet be treated as conclusions, but should perhaps be (and probably are somewhere) avenues of further study.

4. Immunology of common sense


As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.

But this common sense seems to have eluded many ...
 
These are the things we should be talking about. If we were testing in the volume we are now, isn't it fair to assume that the cases would have been there in March and April just the same, if not worse? And potentially far worse. But why despite all these positive tests, are the deaths on a 12 week decline? Were the same number of people walking around with this back then as there are now? More back then, just not tested? Has the virus weakened?

We know or at least have evidence pointing at the following...

- The reproductive value has decreased significantly

- We have made great leaps in treatment

- We know better how to shield the vulnerable

- We know better who is "vulnerable"

- The viral load has been lessened

- Hospital stays are shorter

- Mask usage is far greater than when this began

So taking positive cases and projecting at the same rate as March / April has moved beyond disingenuous, it has risen to the level of absurd.
We don't know that yet either.  If the death rate increases in conjunction with the positive testing rate we're way worse off than we were in April/May/June.

 
And I'm not sure what numbers you're using to say length of stay is down. But, I'm not seeing it in my patients. Even the patients that are requiring minimal care, are staying an average of about 2 weeks before being deemed medically stable enough to discharge. The nes that are requiring stepdown or ICU care are here for multiple weeks.
That's been direct from hospital administrators. They're citing better treatments and lower average age of patient.

 
Oh shoot, I forgot to add that those were first hand accounts of a virus outbreak in 2018.

I'm not rolling my eyes at these health professionals at all. They deal with this stuff every year. Some years worse than others. Many years worse than what we're seeing right now but not as bad as what we saw in some places like NY in March. They're fully capable of dealing with what's transpiring right now. Hospitals aren't built to run at 50% capacity.  We just don't hear about it when hospitals all over the country are treating people in hallways and telling ambulances to bypass their ERs. But it happens every year throughout the U.S.

To bring it back to 2020, what the front line people are accomplishing is amazing...

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1282415497447976965

70,000 new cases in Florida and only 130 new patients added to ICUs.

These people are doing what they do, they're on it, and the world isn't going to end. Wear a mask.
It's funny, I read those accounts and thought about how frequently ERs surge, go on divert, patients can't get a room, etc. It happens every winter, and it is a habitual failure of our healthcare system. 

But it doesn't usually happen year-round. Cancelling elective surgeries, cordoning off entire wards for isolated patients, and prohibiting visitors has never before happened in my hospital. And I can't fathom prioritizing ICU care because beds are full, nor piling bodies in refrigerated trucks.

You're right that hospitals aren't designed to run at 50% capacity. But despite what admin may want, they aren't designed to run at 95%+ capacity either. Just because HCW can handle it doesn't mean hospitals work well when bursting at the seams. It's only a matter of time before mistakes are made, and burnout amongst frontline HCW compromises patient care.

 
Canyon sized difference between "no big deal" and "we're not going to see these doomsday scenarios", Mr Strawman.

And if you'd care to notice, we actually are doing the difference-making things to lessen deaths going forward. Could we do even more? Yes. Does it appear we are doing more? Yes. Even the President was wearing a mask this week.
I know you are for doing the right things but not everyone is.  In Georgia, we haven’t rolled back the opening of things, we have basketball and baseball tournaments going on, we have church services, we have parties and get togethers.  And with all of this, we have lots of people not wearing masks and arguing that it’s an infringement of their rights.  We are about to open schools and many parents will not make their kids wear masks and some counties won’t require them.  This is why some of us are pessimistic that this isn’t ending any time soon.  

 
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It's funny, I read those accounts and thought about how frequently ERs surge, go on divert, patients can't get a room, etc. It happens every winter, and it is a habitual failure of our healthcare system. 

But it doesn't usually happen year-round. Cancelling elective surgeries, cordoning off entire wards for isolated patients, and prohibiting visitors has never before happened in my hospital. And I can't fathom prioritizing ICU care because beds are full, nor piling bodies in refrigerated trucks.

You're right that hospitals aren't designed to run at 50% capacity. But despite what admin may want, they aren't designed to run at 95%+ capacity either. Just because HCW can handle it doesn't mean hospitals work well when bursting at the seams. It's only a matter of time before mistakes are made, and burnout amongst frontline HCW compromises patient care.
95% isn't ideal, of course not. You'll likely get a few profit-minded hospital owners to disagree though. My point now and when I posted that was this does happen every year. No, not typically in the summer. So I'd absolutely grant you that it disrupts seasonal scheduling and planning. I sure do see many people out there who hear "95%!" and assume these are unprecedented numbers for hospitals. They're not. No one would ever design an individual hospital for a worst case scenario. You can have a protocol for worst case scenario, which they do, and since it happens in scattered places every year, it's not the rare occurrence the general public is being led to believe it is.

 
95% isn't ideal, of course not. You'll likely get a few profit-minded hospital owners to disagree though. My point now and when I posted that was this does happen every year. No, not typically in the summer. So I'd absolutely grant you that it disrupts seasonal scheduling and planning. I sure do see many people out there who hear "95%!" and assume these are unprecedented numbers for hospitals. They're not. No one would ever design an individual hospital for a worst case scenario. You can have a protocol for worst case scenario, which they do, and since it happens in scattered places every year, it's not the rare occurrence the general public is being led to believe it is.
You make a good point, but you're downplaying the other points:

1. how long is it sustainable to run at 95% capacity before seeing poor patient outcomes? 

2. Those surge episodes are mitigated by being able to flex with other facilities. If every facility in the area is at surge levels, what do we do then?

 
With some discussion of mortality rates, fear mongering vs. general education, etc., it seems like a good time to again mention that the strong measures (lockdowns / shelter-in-place / flatten the curve) are intended to prevent our the US healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Lots more people die when that happens and many could survive if we just slow it down enough for hospitals to keep up with the demand for treatment.
The fact that it seems like this has to be repeated again nearly 4 months later makes me feel like this is an episode of The Twilight Zone. The fatality rate of the disease is irrelevant if you can't get proper treatment or are refused treatment altogether b/c of surge protocols. 

Wash your hands, keep your distance, and wear masks because it reduces the spread, which helps keep your local healthcare centers from being overwhelmed. It really isn't that hard. 90 degrees and 90% humidity today, mask was barely an annoyance walking from the car to the door of the grocery store and the UPS Store. 

 
I know you are for doing the right things but not everyone is.  In Georgia, we haven’t rolled back the opening of things, we have basketball and baseball tournaments going on, we have church services, we have parties and get togethers.  And with all of this, we have lots of people not wearing masks and arguing that it’s an infringement of their rights.  We are about to open schools and many parents will not make their kids wear masks and some counties won’t require them.  This is why some of us are pessimistic that this isn’t ending any time soon.  
All I can say is that my concern is right there with yours in those cases and examples. My only desire going forward is to turn to mask mandates instead of shut downs. And if left with only those two options, I think the mask opponents will change their tune real quick. I do see a growing embrace of masks so that's where my greater level of optimism resides. If a business can require a shirt and shoes, it should be able to require a mask. More and more governors, mayors, (and perhaps even our President) are coming around on the idea. My perception could be wrong on that but that's what I'm seeing.

Btw, I remember clearly the people who fought me intensely back in March about masks and whether or not they would bring the numbers under control. And it wasn't the anti-mask people. Every time I pointed out the improving numbers in places like the Czech Republic, I had some seemingly very smart people trying to discredit the numbers. Some of the same people I butt heads with now, were saying long term shutdowns were still needed in addition to masks. And as places like Czech Republic, and all of Europe for that matter, have reopened fully, it has turned out that masks do keep this in check and they DIDN'T open too soon. When I started talking about how well their reopens were going I got the same wait and see what happens in "Two Weeks" responses. Now many of those same people cautioning against those reopens then, are applauding places like Czech Republic and Europe as great examples today. We've come a very long way. It's just not apparent to everyone yet.

 
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You make a good point, but you're downplaying the other points:

1. how long is it sustainable to run at 95% capacity before seeing poor patient outcomes? 

2. Those surge episodes are mitigated by being able to flex with other facilities. If every facility in the area is at surge levels, what do we do then?
It's not sustainable for long and if large enough it requires resources from further distances. We're better positioned for that now and it was on the menu of options way back when we we're talking about flattening the curve as we have. We're doing today what we could only talk about as a wishful goal back in March.

 
Looking at CR69's links and some others, a recurring commonality is that when these daycare/camp outbreaks occur, the children who've tested positive are asymptomatic. I don't know if that's 100% of the time or not ... but I've not found reports of children sicked by these types of kid-congregation activities. Teachers, daycare/camp staff, parents, etc. ... yes. In the Lake Oswego day care outbreak linked above, the positive cases were chiefly adults involved with the kids, and less the kids themselves. 

If he's on the right track, Swiss immunologist Dr. Beda Stadler (quoted a bunch in this thread earlier this morning) would say that while some portion of the daycare/camp kids do test positive, it's only because their bodies still contain "shards" of defeated viruses -- quote: "The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left". In short, Stadler is saying (controversially, as of this writing) that a positive PCR test does not mean that a person is actually infected. He puts most virus-exposed little kids (if not almost all little kids) into this category -- they get exposed, their immune systems run roughshod over the virus, and the viral remnants cause positive tests without a true infection.

The idea is enticing, but the dots aren't yet connected.
PCR tests for portions of genetic material, not intact, replicative virions. So yes, it sometimes detects people who aren't infective; but they had to be infected recently to have viral remains present in their body in the first place.

 
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It's funny, I read those accounts and thought about how frequently ERs surge, go on divert, patients can't get a room, etc. It happens every winter, and it is a habitual failure of our healthcare system. 

But it doesn't usually happen year-round. Cancelling elective surgeries, cordoning off entire wards for isolated patients, and prohibiting visitors has never before happened in my hospital. And I can't fathom prioritizing ICU care because beds are full, nor piling bodies in refrigerated trucks.

You're right that hospitals aren't designed to run at 50% capacity. But despite what admin may want, they aren't designed to run at 95%+ capacity either. Just because HCW can handle it doesn't mean hospitals work well when bursting at the seams. It's only a matter of time before mistakes are made, and burnout amongst frontline HCW compromises patient care.
Great points.  And I hate to say it guys, but we are not at the peak in ANY of these states that are almost full.  It’s only going to get worse in many areas.

Florida just reported 27k cases over the last two days. And their median age was EIGHT YEARS higher than it was 2-3 weeks ago.

Yes what is happening in hospitals  RIGHT NOW is not quite comparable to NYC.  But we also aren’t on the downside of this. 
 

This is the MO of some in here.  They drop in, say it’s not that bad, then disappear when it actually gets bad.

 
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This is increasingly becoming a difficult issue.

My best friend is getting married. I hate it, but there is zero chance I'm going. My parents also thankfully declined, he's like another son to them, so it's very hard. Trying to do the right thing, I just can't, in good conscience, participate. Trying to get that across without sounding like I'm judging the decision to do this. Even though I obviously don't think it's a good idea.

Then of course my sister, who thinks this is all way overblown is going. That's fine, but she's also the sort of emotional hot head that will lose her ever loving mind if my parents were to ask her to stay away for couple of weeks afterwards. I can't see them having it in them to ask her to stay away. I can't say that I won't get drunk and ask this of her, which will lead to her going ballistic. 

Anyway, this obviously all puts a strain on a lot of relationships. 
Weddings are a tough one. Is it reasonable to expect indefinate postponements of a wedding?

The better answer for things like this are to keep them outdoors and smaller. Went to my uncles wedding a month ago...outdoors. Basically a small (less then 40 total people) backyard BBQ in a large yard where we could spread out some. Not ideal by any means, but certainly not a super spreader event either. SOME EVENTS need to happen...just do them with some small modifications that at least lessen the risk

 
 This is the MO of some in here.  They drop in, say it’s not that bad, then disappear when it actually gets bad.
Lol, they disappear because they're sick and tired of dealing with you. I was gone when the reopening began and continued. In other words, things got better and I went away. Now we have people pushing shut downs again, and voila, here I am. I'm here because some like you are again skipping past the easiest and most obvious solution - masks. You go even further and applaud shut downs. They are an awful and unnecessary option. And you are very misguided to be applauding them.

Nice try though at trying to shape the narrative, self-appointed overseer of all. 

 
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95% isn't ideal, of course not. You'll likely get a few profit-minded hospital owners to disagree though. My point now and when I posted that was this does happen every year. No, not typically in the summer. So I'd absolutely grant you that it disrupts seasonal scheduling and planning. I sure do see many people out there who hear "95%!" and assume these are unprecedented numbers for hospitals. They're not. No one would ever design an individual hospital for a worst case scenario. You can have a protocol for worst case scenario, which they do, and since it happens in scattered places every year, it's not the rare occurrence the general public is being led to believe it is.
Pretty much every business-minded hospital admin would disagree. But they aren't hospitalized or taking care of patients. They don't have to pay the unnecessary ambulance bills while getting shuttled to another facility, or suffer delays in care while sicker patients are prioritized. And they sure as hell aren't boarding overnight in the hallway of the ER, exposed to every other sick patient without a modicum of privacy.

Perhaps more importantly, they aren't having to work any harder, racing to facilitate ER and inpatient throughput, juggling multiple patients and increasing the odds a mistake will be made. And they aren't exposing themselves to a highly contagious, potentially fatal infection. 

Hospitals certainly face comparable patient loads every Winter. It sucks for everyone directly involved, and quality of care almost invariably goes down. We shouldn't accept this model under normal circumstances, and we certainly shouldn't trust it can function effectively with the added resources demanded by covid patients.

To be clear, I work in a hospital and have experienced the surges you describe. Even though HI has been relatively spared, the changes I've seen in response to the pandemic are unprecedented.

 
I’ll let you two argue it out but I don’t think shutdowns are unnecessary in the hotspots.  I’m not sure why you think otherwise.

ETA - and shutdowns to me means rolling back the phased openings.  There’s no reason for some of these businesses to be open in these hotspots 

 
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Pretty much every business-minded hospital admin would disagree. But they aren't hospitalized or taking care of patients. They don't have to pay the unnecessary ambulance bills while getting shuttled to another facility, or suffer delays in care while sicker patients are prioritized. And they sure as hell aren't boarding overnight in the hallway of the ER, exposed to every other sick patient without a modicum of privacy.

Perhaps more importantly, they aren't having to work any harder, racing to facilitate ER and inpatient throughput, juggling multiple patients and increasing the odds a mistake will be made. And they aren't exposing themselves to a highly contagious, potentially fatal infection. 

Hospitals certainly face comparable patient loads every Winter. It sucks for everyone directly involved, and quality of care almost invariably goes down. We shouldn't accept this model under normal circumstances, and we certainly shouldn't trust it can function effectively with the added resources demanded by covid patients.

To be clear, I work in a hospital and have experienced the surges you describe. Even though HI has been relatively spared, the changes I've seen in response to the pandemic are unprecedented.
It's certainly not that I don't sympathize and we're obviously aware of the same things. My highlighting the fact that this kind of surge isn't as uncommon as many think shouldn't be mistaken by anyone as an endorsement of the system.

 
Lol, they disappear because they're sick and tired of dealing with you. I was gone when the reopening began and continued. In other words, things got better and I went away. Now we have people pushing shut downs again, and voila, here I am. I'm here because some like you are again skipping past the easiest and most obvious solution - masks. You go even further and applaud shut downs. They are an awful and unnecessary option. And you are very misguided to be applauding them.

Nice try though at trying to shape the narrative, self-appointed overseer of all. 
What color is the sky in your world?

 
I’ll let you two argue it out but I don’t think shutdowns are unnecessary in the hotspots.  I’m not sure why you think otherwise.

ETA - and shutdowns to me means rolling back the phased openings.  There’s no reason for some of these businesses to be open in these hotspots 
I'm not that far off from you with the caveat that masks should be mandated well ahead of reverting back to a shut down because if implemented the time simply won't come to need a shut down. Newsom resorting to shut downs again is a failure on his part to mandate masks everywhere. So in that sense, I agree with you - that when things get out of control a short term shut down is probably necessary. In total though, they never should be needed if masks are mandated at the appropriate time. Shut downs are a total and utter failure in leadership at this point in time.

 
Weddings are a tough one. Is it reasonable to expect indefinate postponements of a wedding?

The better answer for things like this are to keep them outdoors and smaller. Went to my uncles wedding a month ago...outdoors. Basically a small (less then 40 total people) backyard BBQ in a large yard where we could spread out some. Not ideal by any means, but certainly not a super spreader event either. SOME EVENTS need to happen...just do them with some small modifications that at least lessen the risk
Yeah, two really good friends have changed their wedding from 200 people to 40 and it's become an all outdoors event.   I'm reasonably comfortable going, which is a good thing since I'm officiating it.

 
I'm not that far off from you with the caveat that masks should be mandated well ahead of reverting back to a shut down because if implemented the time simply won't come to need a shut down. Newsom resorting to shut downs again is a failure on his part to mandate masks everywhere. So in that sense, I agree with you - that when things get out of control a short term shut down is probably necessary. In total though, they never should be needed if masks are mandated at the appropriate time. Shut downs are a total and utter failure in leadership at this point in time.
Businesses are easier to get to follow the rules over millions of people.  You are right they should mandate masks but as mentioned we have a bunch of ignorant people claiming their rights are being infringed.  And we have states like mine not mandating masks anywhere - yes, failure of leadership.

I will say that once the genie is out of the bottle a few weeks of shutdowns are needed - just a mask mandate won’t cut it unless you are willing to have higher deaths.  And I completely get that being a different topic and worthy of debate.  But we aren’t close to that yet.

 
I guess it really should be no surprise that it got missed by many how effective masks were in other places outside the U.S. The people who kept warning about what was coming in the places that were reopening had no motivation to to take note later that the reopens after relatively short shutdowns were successful because of masks. Yet they'll be the first to point out today what shining examples those places are. And follow it up with a thumbs up for a second round of shut downs. It's people like that holding us back, not the other way around. Who the heck is gonna be here today applauding another round of shut downs? That's not someone people should be defending or much less, listening to. I'm sorry, it just isn't. They are a huge step backward and completely unnecessary if we just follow the template that the world and time have provided us.

 
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I'm going to post the "common sense" part here in a spoiler box, to elicit the house's reaction. The things Stadler is proposing should not yet be treated as conclusions, but should perhaps be (and probably are somewhere) avenues of further study.

4. Immunology of common sense

As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.

But this common sense seems to have eluded many ...
Yes, the hidden comments you bolded are very compelling. I get that trials with controls etc, are the gold standard of science. But the irony in where the starting points are for studying this is interesting. The idea that the burden of proof falls to those arguing that just maybe this virus isn't so different from other viruses instead of with those claiming without sufficient evidence that this is something completely unlike anything we've ever seen before has always been odd to me.

Maybe a good analogy is: EVERYBODY agrees hand-washing is important for preventing infections, both viral and bacterial. But, has there ever been a trial with blind controls which proves this? If I posited that hand-washing is actually harmful and then the masses felt the burden of proof fell upon the pro-hand-washers instead of on the hand-wash-deniers, that would be effed up. Sometimes you have to make assumptions about what is true, and what isn't, otherwise where does research begin? 

Lastly, while Stadler has an opinion and isn't afraid to argue for it, I find it refreshing he (she?) states clearly that everybody has been wrong some of the time. That's certainly true.

 
It's not complicated. Locations where the vast majority of people have demonstrated their willingness to wear masks shouldn't need to go from "open" to "shut down".

But the places where a significant portion of people refuse to wear masks? Sorry, you can't have nice things and you also ruined it for your neighbors who were wearing them. And those places should go from "open" to "shut down".

 
I’ll let you two argue it out but I don’t think shutdowns are unnecessary in the hotspots.  I’m not sure why you think otherwise.

ETA - and shutdowns to me means rolling back the phased openings.  There’s no reason for some of these businesses to be open in these hotspots 
Shutdowns are ‘break in case of an emergency’ options. It was absolutely needed in March when we knew nothing about the virus and it was spreading uncontrollably. With what we know now there should be no reason to shutdown again but here we are. We never adapted to living with it, we had half the country skip to living without it.

Even as these outbreaks rage in the south and west, there’s other places that are living in another world thinking that it will never happen to them. Smart people who just refuse to care until it smacks them right in the face. I had low expectations but even they weren’t met.

I was right there saying we’d never shut down again. The emergency is back time to bust that glass in several states.

 
That first article counts all cases linked to it. Does it specify how many cases were kids vs counselors vs family members of counselors? That info is almost always missing which leads me to believe the majority of numbers are young counselors getting this and spreading to each other and admin staff and family of staff and few kids getting it and even fewer passing it on. 

 
Shutdowns are ‘break in case of an emergency’ options. It was absolutely needed in March when we knew nothing about the virus and it was spreading uncontrollably. With what we know now there should be no reason to shutdown again but here we are. We never adapted to living with it, we had half the country skip to living without it.

Even as these outbreaks rage in the south and west, there’s other places that are living in another world thinking that it will never happen to them. Smart people who just refuse to care until it smacks them right in the face. I had low expectations but even they weren’t met.

I was right there saying we’d never shut down again. The emergency is back time to bust that glass in several states.
If I could use both the "like" and the "cry" button in response to this I would.

 
Monday numbers 

Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 13: 286 deaths

Last three Mondays: (182,276,286)

7-day average in deaths

6/28: 278

6/29: 304

6/30: 310

7/1: 305

7/2: 316

7/3: 321

7/4: 302

7/5: 304

7/6: 317

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

7/9: 391

7/10: 421

7/11: 474

7/12: 496

7/13: 497

 
Something I'm getting sick of seeing is the description of non-mask wearers as strictly right wingers. Admittedly,  there are those that feel their rights are being infringed upon but I've seen plenty of scenes in black and Hispanic neighborhoods not wearing masks and they could hardly be considered Trump supporters. This is a failure among all groups, not any one specifically.

 
Something I'm getting sick of seeing is the description of non-mask wearers as strictly right wingers. Admittedly,  there are those that feel their rights are being infringed upon but I've seen plenty of scenes in black and Hispanic neighborhoods not wearing masks and they could hardly be considered Trump supporters. This is a failure among all groups, not any one specifically.
All non mask wearers matter. 

 
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You two are talking past each other - he never said we'd see that scale - he just said deaths would rise and they have.  I will say shader didn't seem optimistic that we could (added) much see lower rates.  That's why I think you're talking past each other.  How about we bottom line it - we aren't doing well even if we are doing "better" than NY was.  In fact, we are doing horribly by comparison to other countries and we appear hellbent on making in worse or at least not much better.
Yeah...there's a difference between intentionally misrepresenting and talking passed GB.  NY was an absolute ####show.  They are just now starting to get things in line.  The problem at hand, right this second, is we continue to react rather than be proactive and that ultimately seems to be shader's point.  It is absolutely valid to point out that deaths lag behind hospitalizations that lag behind positive cases.  That's all he's said.  I don't think it's a stretch to suggest as the average age comes down, deaths lag further behind (which is ultimately a good thing) but that seems to be forgotten as well.  Reality is, this is a different group of people under different circumstances.  Some of us think them being under the circumstances at all is absurd because it is so easy to avoid.  That's been the case all along.  Others, not so much.  The "concern" shifts and moves around depending on whatever the talking point is that day.

Reality is, as a nation, we could be talking about pulling out of this fiasco in the next 3-4 weeks had we done some simple things as a collective.  Instead, we are going to be talking about how bad cases are getting and "arguing" how the hypothetical end justifies the means.  We'll be talking about how our states are doing worse than many countries and how that doesn't really matter because people aren't dying.  All the while the anti-maskers are whining that things aren't opening up fast enough and people remaining silent over states not following the "guidelines" who once were screaming from the rooftops that the "guidelines" were the way to go.  To what end?  I have no idea.  It's just madness at this point....just so dishonest and fruitless.  

 
Well yeah, it does. Every winter somewhere in the U.S. in multiple locations.

And no they don't "create more doctors and nurses", they redirect resources. Which is how we were told we'd handle things going forward once brought under control. And it's what is being done now quite effectively looking at our deaths counts in comparison to March and April.

There's a very clear lack of understanding about this and it's proven out citing examples of viruses from the past. People hear 90-95% ICU capacity or beds filling hallways and are led to believe its unprecedented. It's not only something we see spread about every year, it's anticipated, planned for, and honestly built into the business model. But don't let a chance for some good ol' fear mongering pass you by.
There are certain hospitals in metro areas that deal with this all too frequently. Generally, they are fairly isolated cases where redirecting is relatively easy. THIS RIGHT NOW is a different scenario, one where EVERY hospital in a large metro area is in this kind of scenario simultaneously, and where smaller rural facilities which DON'T EVER see this scenario are seeing it.

So while, yeah...it's not rare/uncommon...the places and patterns we are seeing right now ARE

 
And I'll throw out the central florida economy has gone from 97% loss in revenue from their tourism to 95% after being 50%+ open for over a month now.  The difference?  People are now on the hook for payrolls, both small and large businesses.  We've seen an increase of about 12% in the closing of businesses in the last 6 weeks alone.  Prior to that we'd lost about 5-7% of those businesses.  It's sort of like a brown out around here...if you care about your house, you'd be smart to shut the power off and run on a generator rather than try to run on the drip being provided.  People are having to make some tough decisions.

 
And I'll throw out the central florida economy has gone from 97% loss in revenue from their tourism to 95% after being 50%+ open for over a month now. 
I'm not that bright, can you explain this? Are you saying that revenue is back to 95% of what it was, or that instead of being down 97% it's now only down 95%? Sorry for being a dummy. 

 
Shutdowns are ‘break in case of an emergency’ options. It was absolutely needed in March when we knew nothing about the virus and it was spreading uncontrollably. With what we know now there should be no reason to shutdown again but here we are. We never adapted to living with it, we had half the country skip to living without it.

Even as these outbreaks rage in the south and west, there’s other places that are living in another world thinking that it will never happen to them. Smart people who just refuse to care until it smacks them right in the face. I had low expectations but even they weren’t met.

I was right there saying we’d never shut down again. The emergency is back time to bust that glass in several states.
That middle paragraph is what makes this so disappointing. It's a sad, sad commentary on how divided we are as a country.

Yeah...there's a difference between intentionally misrepresenting and talking passed GB.  NY was an absolute ####show.  They are just now starting to get things in line.  The problem at hand, right this second, is we continue to react rather than be proactive and that ultimately seems to be shader's point.  It is absolutely valid to point out that deaths lag behind hospitalizations that lag behind positive cases.  That's all he's said.  I don't think it's a stretch to suggest as the average age comes down, deaths lag further behind (which is ultimately a good thing) but that seems to be forgotten as well.  Reality is, this is a different group of people under different circumstances.  Some of us think them being under the circumstances at all is absurd because it is so easy to avoid.  That's been the case all along.  Others, not so much.  The "concern" shifts and moves around depending on whatever the talking point is that day.

Reality is, as a nation, we could be talking about pulling out of this fiasco in the next 3-4 weeks had we done some simple things as a collective.  Instead, we are going to be talking about how bad cases are getting and "arguing" how the hypothetical end justifies the means.  We'll be talking about how our states are doing worse than many countries and how that doesn't really matter because people aren't dying.  All the while the anti-maskers are whining that things aren't opening up fast enough and people remaining silent over states not following the "guidelines" who once were screaming from the rooftops that the "guidelines" were the way to go.  To what end?  I have no idea.  It's just madness at this point....just so dishonest and fruitless.  
Indeed. Absurd is the perfect word choice. 

 
That first article counts all cases linked to it. Does it specify how many cases were kids vs counselors vs family members of counselors? That info is almost always missing which leads me to believe the majority of numbers are young counselors getting this and spreading to each other and admin staff and family of staff and few kids getting it and even fewer passing it on. 
I think your preconceived biases lead you to believe what you do.  

 
There are certain hospitals in metro areas that deal with this all too frequently. Generally, they are fairly isolated cases where redirecting is relatively easy. THIS RIGHT NOW is a different scenario, one where EVERY hospital in a large metro area is in this kind of scenario simultaneously, and where smaller rural facilities which DON'T EVER see this scenario are seeing it.

So while, yeah...it's not rare/uncommon...the places and patterns we are seeing right now ARE
Correct. I didn't realize how easily COVID could ruin the healthcare system until I applied it to my hospital.

We're a 300+ bed hospital and BEFORE COVID it was a daily struggle to free up beds in the ICUs and the step-down units. We would have patients waiting in the ED for 18+ hours at times and this a a large hospital in a metro area. So adding ANY TYPE of extra volume would be a stress to our hospital. 

I imagine many hospitals have similar balancing acts everyday. 

Just praying that the masks usage decreases the flu this season or else we'll be screwed.

 
Yes, the hidden comments you bolded are very compelling. I get that trials with controls etc, are the gold standard of science. But the irony in where the starting points are for studying this is interesting. The idea that the burden of proof falls to those arguing that just maybe this virus isn't so different from other viruses instead of with those claiming without sufficient evidence that this is something completely unlike anything we've ever seen before has always been odd to me.

Maybe a good analogy is: EVERYBODY agrees hand-washing is important for preventing infections, both viral and bacterial. But, has there ever been a trial with blind controls which proves this? If I posited that hand-washing is actually harmful and then the masses felt the burden of proof fell upon the pro-hand-washers instead of on the hand-wash-deniers, that would be effed up. Sometimes you have to make assumptions about what is true, and what isn't, otherwise where does research begin? 

Lastly, while Stadler has an opinion and isn't afraid to argue for it, I find it refreshing he (she?) states clearly that everybody has been wrong some of the time. That's certainly true.
He is arguing the virus is different, in suggesting children aren't significant vectors of spread. He's also arguing children have a priori immunity that somehow eluded their elders. Both statements are hard to accept at face value, as they fly in the face of clinical experience with just about every viral respiratory infection. So yes, the burden of proof falls on someone making those types of statements, especially when the consequence of incorrect assumptions is facilitating viral spread.

No one is saying the virus is completely different from infections we've seen before; its naming should tell you it's the sequel to the other SARS. And it would be great if immunologic cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses attenuated the threat. But again, to assume this is the case shouldn't be the default position, as you risk a lot more people getting infected if you're wrong. Moreover, two closely related coronaviruses, SARS and MERS-CoV, are more deadly than SARS-CoV-2, so it probably is wise to err on the side of caution.

Although infection control literature is methodologically difficult, there is plenty of data to support handwashing to reduce both bacterial and viral spread. Here's one study:

Improvements in hand hygiene resulted in reductions in gastrointestinal illness of 31% (95% confidence intervals [CI]=19%, 42%) and reductions in respiratory illness of 21% (95% CI=5%, 34%). The most beneficial intervention was hand-hygiene education with use of nonantibacterial soap.
Here's another that Matuski would approve

Meta-analyses suggest that regular hand hygiene provided a significant protective effect (OR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.52–0.73; I2 = 0%), and facemask use provided a non-significant protective effect (OR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.16–1.71; I2 = 48%) against 2009 pandemic influenza infection. These interventions may therefore be effective at limiting transmission during future pandemics.
Just out of curiosity, how do you propose study participants be blinded to whether their hands are washed? 

 
I'm not that bright, can you explain this? Are you saying that revenue is back to 95% of what it was, or that instead of being down 97% it's now only down 95%? Sorry for being a dummy. 
He's saying his payroll takes up half his revenue on a good day so capping at 50% means he's just making payroll and taking home nothing.  

 
Both statements are hard to accept at face value, as they fly in the face of clinical experience with just about every viral respiratory infection
It doesnt really fly in the face of anything. Plenty of doctors have been saying since the data about kids first started rolling in that their increased exposure to other coronaviruses could help explain why they are less affected by this one. 

And it isnt like some of these same conversations didnt also happen re:SARS and MERS years ago. 

 
Correct. I didn't realize how easily COVID could ruin the healthcare system until I applied it to my hospital.

We're a 300+ bed hospital and BEFORE COVID it was a daily struggle to free up beds in the ICUs and the step-down units. We would have patients waiting in the ED for 18+ hours at times and this a a large hospital in a metro area. So adding ANY TYPE of extra volume would be a stress to our hospital. 

I imagine many hospitals have similar balancing acts everyday. 

Just praying that the masks usage decreases the flu this season or else we'll be screwed.
Yep. It's one of the bazillion things wrong with our healthcare system. The number of primary care providers and hospital beds per 100,000K population are among the lowest of OECD countries.

Somehow we spend way more than everywhere else, but have less to show for it than our industrialized peers.

 
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It doesnt really fly in the face of anything. Plenty of doctors have been saying since the data about kids first started rolling in that their increased exposure to other coronaviruses could help explain why they are less affected by this one. 

And it isnt like some of these same conversations didnt also happen re:SARS and MERS years ago. 
Do you think the parents of those children weren't exposed to those same coronaviruses?

Make no mistake, I think that explanation is somewhat plausible, but it shouldn't be our default assumption when determining policy like reopening schools.

ETA Are you suggesting children aren't significant vectors for most respiratory infections? Because that was also part of the face-flying to which I referred.

 
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