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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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37 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

On the whole 6 week/2 week lag, it’s not just the initial infections that we have to look at, but also the spread caused by those initial infections.

It’s been well established that the initial cases of this outbreak were younger, healthier people who are likely to have a low hospitalization risk and a very low death risk. Those cases will likely be resolved in 2-3 weeks but that’s not the end of the outbreak.

For the sake of making the numbers easy, let’s say that each case will result in 2 additional infections. Some of those infections will remain in the low-risk age groups but some will expand to higher risk.

With each new round of infections you’re likely to see the average age increase along with hospitalization and death risk. For the first couple rounds that might not be a significant increase but after 4 or 5 rounds, deaths are sure to start rising.

How long will it take to get to that point? That’s anyone’s guess. There’s also the chance that we never get there especially if a significant intervention is made to stop the spread.

To use an over-simplified example, let’s say that it takes 1 week to identify a case after infection. And in that one week you start the next round of infections. Hospitalizations happen 1 week after diagnosis and deaths 1 week after that.

Start: Large infection event (Round 1)

Week 1: Round 1 Cases

Week 2: Round 2 Cases, Round 1 Hospitalizations 

Week 3: Round 3 Cases, Round 2 Hospitalizations, Round 1 Deaths

Week 4: Round 4 Cases, Round 3 Hospitalizations, Round 2 Deaths

Week 5: Round 5 Cases, Round 4 Hospitalizations, Round 3 Deaths

Week 6: Round 6 Cases, Round 5 Hospitalizations, Round 4 Deaths

Week 7: Round 7 Cases, Round 6 Hospitalizations, Round 5 Deaths

Week 8: Round 8 Cases, Round 7 Hospitalizations, Round 6 Deaths

For each round, a certain percentage will be asymptomatic and never test positive. That means that a spike in cases might not be realized right away, maybe not until round 3.

Likewise, hospitalization risk may be low initially and grow as the cases grow and the average age increases, let’s say round 4.

Finally deaths will take longer to grow to the average age where death risk is significant, let’s say round 6.

Using those examples we would see a spike in:

Cases - Week 3

Hospitalizations: Week 5

Deaths: Week 8

That would put a 5 week gap between the spike in cases and the spike in deaths. Not that it would take 5 weeks for deaths to result from those cases but 5 weeks for the disease to spread and progress to a point where deaths increase.

Look at New York and surrounding states. If you assume that they were a couple ‘rounds’ ahead of the rest of the country and combine that with the population density that would increase the exponential spread, it goes a long way to explaining why they got so much worse than the rest of the country.

Nailed it.  Great post. 

One factor that hasn't been talked about much is this:  By the time the New York spike in deaths hit the peak, they had been in lockdown for 4 weeks.  

There are no lockdowns now....

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Im not sure why this popped in my head just now and maybe it's been asked previously but...

Is there any study that has tried to link covid deaths with people that had received the flu shot? Or the shot older folks get for pneumonia? I'd be interested in something like covid deaths/flu shot.  

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Oh and what's the protocol for a coworker coming in contact with someone that just tested positive?

Wife works for a dentist (a #justafludentist btw) and one of the hygienists said her daughter in law just tested positive. Last Contact monday.  Isnt the hygienist supposed to quarantine now for 14 days?  Shes getting tested tomorrow.  If positive, whole office quarantine 14 days? If negative, ??

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2 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

I'm floored by this statement. Like, "don't know what to say" kind of floored.

A cure for a novel virus is not realistic.  Not in any of our lifetimes.  Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.  

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12 minutes ago, culdeus said:

A cure for a novel virus is not realistic.  Not in any of our lifetimes.  Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.  

You’re saying that’s the goal or we’re already there?

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1 hour ago, TLEF316 said:

I honestly cant' believe I have to type this out, but.....

We are in the middle of a horrible situation. The absolute best people we have believe that in order to get out of it and back to some semblance of normal ASAP, we should do A, B AND C. Not one of them, not two of them....all 3.  MAYBE all 3 aren't necessary, but they're good, easy to accomplish best practices that MIGHT get us back to normal a little bit faster.

Lets say A is improved hygiene practices, (surprised there isn't an anti-hand washing movement yet) B is wearing masks and C is social distancing (which one way down the aisles facilitates).  NONE of these things are all that difficult or inconvenient and going the right way down the aisle MIGHT cost you an extra 45 seconds in the grocery store (if you have to walk down an extra aisle or two to get to some items you need).

Why in the world wouldn't you just do these things? Why would you push back against them? This really is not that much to ask. Its just mind boggling that anyone would make a stink (or choose to ignore) about a request to simply follow an arrow on the floor to improve other shopper's abilities to stay 6 feet away from you.

God we are in for a long year.

 

1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

Because cloth masks aren’t 100% effective. Even N95 masks that are properly fit tested and worn properly only stop 95% of particles that are 0.3 um in size or larger.

Depending on the cloth mask material, if it’s worn properly, etc. it could be anywhere from like 15-80% effective. If everyone is wearing a cloth mask, it probably bumps it up to 70-90% effective or something similar. But it’s still not 100% effective. That’s why social distancing is the #1 control method and masks are secondary in importance. It’s an additional form of protection, not a replacement.

I was the guy wearing the mask when there were only 5% of us doing so.  I'll stay 6 ft away from you, but I'm not walking all the way all the way around, waiting 5 minutes for the people in front of me to clear that aisle to next the one I need to be on, to then walk 3/4's of the way back to look for what I need.  It's not a mere 45 seconds as you suggest unless the place is empty in which case it wouldn't matter.  It makes no difference which direction I pass you.  Would you be satisfied if I walked backwards down the aisle?

Quite honestly if me wearing a mask and keeping 6 ft away from you isn't enough, you should have your groceries delivered.

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Posted (edited)

 

24 minutes ago, culdeus said:

A cure for a novel virus is not realistic.  Not in any of our lifetimes.  Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.  

Hes still waiting for the flu shot to work

Edited by need2know

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35 minutes ago, culdeus said:

A cure for a novel virus is not realistic.  Not in any of our lifetimes.  Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.  

Flying Elvis nailed it. I misread your statement. Apologies.

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San Antonio broke it's single day death record today. Included one man in his 20s, one in his 30s, one in his 40s, one in his 50s.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

 

I was the guy wearing the mask when there were only 5% of us doing so.  I'll stay 6 ft away from you, but I'm not walking all the way all the way around, waiting 5 minutes for the people in front of me to clear that aisle to next the one I need to be on, to then walk 3/4's of the way back to look for what I need.  It's not a mere 45 seconds as you suggest unless the place is empty in which case it wouldn't matter.  It makes no difference which direction I pass you.  Would you be satisfied if I walked backwards down the aisle?

Quite honestly if me wearing a mask and keeping 6 ft away from you isn't enough, you should have your groceries delivered.

uh, you can't stay 6 feet away from someone if you're passing them in a grocery store aisle. 

I feel like you're greatly exaggerating how long people take in the aisles (5 minutes? Come on) but if that's your experience, fine. i tend to plan my grocery shopping for the least crowded times possible. (because even pre-Covid, people were morons in the grocery store)

Its not even about me getting infected. I'm mid 30's and healthy. Its about the fact that our society as a whole is too dumb/selfish/stubborn to follow incredibly simple protocol, which is (partially) why this thing isn't going away nearly as fast as it could be. 

 

Edited by TLEF316

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jplvr said:

TL;DR. No, I don't think case numbers mean what they used to mean. They shouldn't be ignored either. Also, I don't think hospitalizations and ICU bed stats are the same as they used to be either.

It actually said 6-8 weeks. Someone elsewhere pointed out to me that's a CDC lag time, but none of us are really tracking it that way. We are looking at state case reports, and trying to judge lag, which really is closer to 14 days than 42. About lag: some tests come back in a day or less, and some can take 7-10 days, or more... still. Why do we only talk about the lag starting when case numbers are reported? I know at least 10 people now who have taken two tests to go back to work. One rapid; one that comes back multiple days later. My question: are they getting counted twice? I know it can easily be argued 10 cases is anecdotal, and there may not be any statistical implication to the numbers, but it's still a concern with trying to judge real time data and predict anything when you wonder how many times a person is counted AND how long it took a reported test to come back.

I haven't been happy with the hospitalization numbers the past few days for Florida, but I've also been trying to talk to people on the ground. Heard about Jackson in Miami a couple of days before that broke in the news, but even though they were pretty full, I was told it was like 20% Covid in the ICU. The guy I mentioned in Orlando said they opened up their overflow ICU because they were getting full, but to date, they aren't using it. I think he said 15% of the ICU was Covid. 

Just like we aren't able to compare NY with today's ability to test, we also cannot compare NY ICU capacity with what is happening now. Maybe @Terminalxylem can fill me in, but as I understand it, hospitalizations and ICUs in NYC were mostly Covid patients during their worst time. I've hinted to a question previously about whether or not it matters, but it's at least not entirely fair to compare those situations at face value. Is a regular ICU patient as difficult to deal with as a Covid ICU patient? Let's say my guy in Orlando gets a full ICU, and they end up with a Covid ICU ward and a regular ICU ward. At what stage would there be a reason to panic? IIRC, their regular ICU capacity was around 32, and I do remember their overflow would put them at 68. And doing the math, 15% of 32 means 5-6 total Covid patients in his hospital (system?) right now.

I admit numbers aren't where I want them to be. Deaths are relatively flat, but I want them to fall. None of this is happening where I am in Florida, but I'd still rather get this over with soon, state wide.

The test lag continues. MOST of the tests we send out in hospital aren't actually sent out...they're done in house now with results in as little as 12 hours. Most people getting outpatient tests are sent to LABCORP and still tsake at least 3 days and sometimes 5 or 6.

My ICU in SE VA has held steady. While we had up to half the unit on COVID isolation at a time before we had capacity for rapid testing, we peaked at 5 cases and have had between 2- and 4 confirmed cases pretty consistently for the last 3 months (there have been at least twice that many in the hospital at any given time just not in ICU). We've been operating nearly full for a couple of weeks now, but not due to COVID (at least not directly.....some certainly are as some people have been far more hesitant to go to their PCP or even ER for fear of COVID...see the same thing with women and breast cancer...you wouldn't believe how many times I've found an obvious suspicious lump on someone who's never seen a doctor for it!)

The COVID cases (at least the ones who end up on a vent) tend to hang out for a LOOOOONG time, even if they get better. It's often 3 weeks before they are liberated from the vent or die.

@Terminalxylem, we tried another convalescent plasma, this time on somebody who was MUCH earlier in their stay.....this time the guy seemed to have turned a corner much earlier. Maybe timing on it makes a big difference? Hard to say as our numbers (in my unit) are too low too make conclusions.

 

ETA: For contrast, Virginia has been one of the few states holding steady overall, not rising but not dropping significantly either. We've had public masking rules in effect for a while but not well enforced.  

And yes...COVID patients in the ICU are typically among the more demanding on RN time and attention, mostly because they are often the ones getting proned, paralyzed chemically, and on high support. Anecdotally, for some reason the COVID patients seem much more difficult to sedate...IE: they typically require far more drugs to sedate them then is normal. Doubt that's been studied as there are more important things to study but I'd bet my house retroactive studies find this to be true

Edited by renesauz
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20 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:
  52 minutes ago, culdeus said:

A cure for a novel virus is not realistic.  Not in any of our lifetimes.  Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.

Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down

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8 minutes ago, renesauz said:

Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down

Yeah but it’s not like you actually need your organs, right?

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4 minutes ago, renesauz said:

Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down

Yes. This is something worth worrying about.  Even people with mild symptoms are struggling with stamina, and breathing.   I've yet to see an estimate but MERS was the same way.  Could be worth looking at how that worked out. 

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6 hours ago, jplvr said:

Orlando/Central Florida:

15 on vent from none.

Native ICUs at his hospital are still not full, but they opened the expansion.

Staffing would be the problem, as I've been told here and elsewhere previously.

His system is 10+ hospitals in central Florida

Still manageable, but staffing and shipping out stable nursing home patients is the issue at the moment.

Lots of patients in his system with it, not there for it, but the ICU filling up was his concern.

79 Covid patients either with or there for Covid in his particular hospital, and up to 15 now in ICU (I guess those are all on vent). No idea on system wide numbers.

Edit: Youngest in ICU is 49. Mostly 65+.

As I've mentioned here before, staffing is USUALLY the problem. We struggle mightily when our normal units are full...I have no idea how we could safely staff the "overflow" space. I hate that public health officials focus on "beds" because the beds number is typically far higher then the staff trained to handle those patients allows

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

Yes. This is something worth worrying about.  Even people with mild symptoms are struggling with stamina, and breathing.   I've yet to see an estimate but MERS was the same way.  Could be worth looking at how that worked out. 

still pretty early, and not well studied yet. We may find that its just a longer then normal recovery and most of these folks DO eventually get back to their previous baseline. Not sure that's a realistic hope but it's not impossible

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10 minutes ago, renesauz said:

As I've mentioned here before, staffing is USUALLY the problem. We struggle mightily when our normal units are full...I have no idea how we could safely staff the "overflow" space. I hate that public health officials focus on "beds" because the beds number is typically far higher then the staff trained to handle those patients allows

Our mayor routinely reports "staffed beds." I assume they are taking in to account exactly what you are talking about. That a bed with no staff to attend to it is pretty useless for a COVID patient.

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 8: 581 deaths

Big increase over the last two Wednesdays: (458,428,581)

 

7-day average in deaths

6/28: 278

6/29: 304

6/30: 310

7/1: 305

7/2: 316

7/3: 321

7/4: 302

7/5: 304

7/6: 317

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

 

Can we stop saying deaths are declining?  Please?  

Fatalities are catching up to cases. And cases are continuing to rise. As are hospitalizations.

Why is it that people are surprised by this? Or did they forget about the lag time?

FL, TX, AZ, GA, NC and SC need to lock it down. Phase 1 or complete Stay at Home. Essentials only. Masks mandated. No retail, no restaurants, no hair salons, no nothing. Sorry, you blew it.

This needs to happen tomorrow. Perhaps other states too, but definitely these. 

We’ve seen this before people. It’s happening. Don’t be fooled because the deaths lagged. People have been raising the alarm for weeks. Others resisted, head in the sand. We’re not doing this right people, wake up.

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Just shy of 62,000 new cases in the US today!?!  What an embarrassment ...what a failure.  Fall routines (esp. schools) could be FUBAR, which means our economy could be dragged down further. So sad.  So frustrating.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Fatalities are catching up to cases. And cases are continuing to rise. As are hospitalizations.

Why is it that people are surprised by this? Or did they forget about the lag time?

FL, TX, AZ, GA, NC and SC need to lock it down. Phase 1 or complete Stay at Home. Essentials only. Masks mandated. No retail, no restaurants, no hair salons, no nothing. Sorry, you blew it.

This needs to happen tomorrow. Perhaps other states too, but definitely these. 

We’ve seen this before people. It’s happening. Don’t be fooled because the deaths lagged. People have been raising the alarm for weeks. Others resisted, head in the sand. We’re not doing this right people, wake up.

The really scary thing is that the USA is about to go into truly unprecedented territory.  As bad as it was in Italy, Spain, Wuhan and New York City....all of those areas had lockdowns far in advance of the death spikes.

Lockdowns aren’t happening now.  It will probably take refrigerated trucks for the dead bodies to get states to lockdown again, but even at the point where they do, we are still 4-6 weeks from relief.

And the whole second wave was completely avoidable.

Edited by shader
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1 hour ago, TLEF316 said:

uh, you can't stay 6 feet away from someone if you're passing them in a grocery store aisle. 

I feel like you're greatly exaggerating how long people take in the aisles (5 minutes? Come on) but if that's your experience, fine. i tend to plan my grocery shopping for the least crowded times possible. (because even pre-Covid, people were morons in the grocery store)

Its not even about me getting infected. I'm mid 30's and healthy. Its about the fact that our society as a whole is too dumb/selfish/stubborn to follow incredibly simple protocol, which is (partially) why this thing isn't going away nearly as fast as it could be. 

 

I'm totally on the pro mask/social distance side but IMO you're making way too big a deal about this whole one way grocery store thing. I get that you're just frustrated about people not being able to follow simple "rules" in light of what's going on but you have to come to grips that this is a pretty ineffective approach. 

For one, unless you're in a place with blaring signs, yeah it's probably easy to forget this rule when you are walking by an aisle and spot something in there that you forgot you needed and quickly try and grab it. It's actually a pretty drastic change to a behavior most of us have been doing for many years. I'll admit this happened to me a couple times as my store only had some tape on the floor and how often are you looking at the floor? 

Second, the aisles aren't like the moving walkways in the airport. People are always stopping their carts, staring at the items, picking up different ones...so you end up having to pass alongside anyway and it's the same brief extremely low risk interaction as if two people were passing in opposite directions. 

I've never had a problem in the aisles. They're built to allow for good movement. Compare that to the produce/bakery/deli type areas which tend to have no natural flow and leads to people getting stacked up. That's the only time I've felt uneasy in a grocery store during all of this.  

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41 minutes ago, shader said:

The really scary thing is that the USA is about to go into truly unprecedented territory.  As bad as it was in Italy, Spain, Wuhan and New York City....all of those areas had lockdowns far in advance of the death spikes.

Lockdowns aren’t happening now.  It will probably take refrigerated trucks for the dead bodies to get states to lockdown again, but even at the point where they do, we are still 4-6 weeks from relief.

And the whole second continuation of the first wave was completely avoidable.

FTFY

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10 hours ago, shader said:

Case counts do matter. They are a leading indicator, though they should be paired with tests to get a % positive so that we get the full story.  If the % positive isn't changing and case counts are only going up because you're testing more, then you could argue that case counts aren't important.

Gee, I remember making this same point a few months ago when I bothered trying to have a discussion in this thread and was told that new cases alone was a valid stat that didnt need total tests taken to give it some reference.

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A couple questions. It seems like we should be able to answer by now.

Has anyone gotten this a second time?

Has anyone tested positive for antibodies and later negative?

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3 hours ago, renesauz said:

Anecdotally, for some reason the COVID patients seem much more difficult to sedate...IE: they typically require far more drugs to sedate them then is normal. Doubt that's been studied as there are more important things to study but I'd bet my house retroactive studies find this to be true

funny, I noticed the same thing. I bet there’s something to it.

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14 hours ago, culdeus said:

Glass half full would say that there seems no seasonal pause in the summer, so a seasonal peak in the winter is unexpected.  

Almost every respiratory virus surges in the fall/winter. Why?

1. Cold weather keeps people indoors, in close proximity to others

2. Kids are intermingling in school and vacation breaks with extended family

3. Respiratory droplets evaporate less quickly in cold weather

4. Vitamin D levels are lower, with relative immunosuppression in some

All the other coronaviruses peak in winter, too.

Your glass is certainly half full of something, and it stinks about as bad as the assumptions you’re making.

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18 hours ago, TLEF316 said:

At what point do we get to stop politely ignoring the idiots who can't figure out what to do in a grocery store?

The store near me has had arrows in the aisles since AT LEAST the middle of April. They're very clear and  easy to follow. There are signs referencing them all over the store.  Yet every freaking time I go in, at least 30% of the people are going the wrong way. Its absolute lunacy.

Just now, I'm in the middle of a trip and there's a well dressed woman in her 40's dragging two kids behind her. No cart, so she's obviously just there for a couple of things. And of course, she's going the wrong way (I saw her in 3 separate aisles). She's in her own little world in the rice aisle and (after waiting 20 seconds)  I politely say "excuse me" so i can go by her  (going the right way). She doesn't hear me/ignores me, so I just try to pass. Of course....THEN she backs up into me. She apologizes and I say "its ok, but you're going the wrong way". I guess she thought I said that I was going the wrong way and she says "that's ok". I could have just kept walking, but I'm getting kinda tired of this so I respond...."No.....YOU'RE going the wrong way". She claims she didn't see the arrows. They've been up for at least 3 months.

Then I turn to the next aisle and THREE people are going the wrong way. 

We're honestly doomed if these are the people we need to cater to.

Sometimes I honestly just forget. I've been going to the same grocery store for 20 years. The arrows have been there for three months. 

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Folks please be cool to each other and don't insult other people.

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30 minutes ago, Payne said:

Sometimes I honestly just forget. I've been going to the same grocery store for 20 years. The arrows have been there for three months. 

I haven’t shopped but a few times since these have been up.  I admit that if no one is in an aisle I’ve gone the wrong way in to the aisle but then leave correctly.  At some point following the arrows can actually be a bad thing if there’s not a lot of people.  But I’m in favor of them.

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I usually follow the arrows, but let's be honest.  We know more now about how this virus spreads than we did back in March.  These arrows were a good idea when we were all operating out of an abundance of caution.  We now know that grocery stores are not a significant vector of infection and that fleeting interactions with infected people are very low-risk, especially if everyone is wearing a mask.  The little arrows can go away now.

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12 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I usually follow the arrows, but let's be honest.  We know more now about how this virus spreads than we did back in March.  These arrows were a good idea when we were all operating out of an abundance of caution.  We now know that grocery stores are not a significant vector of infection and that fleeting interactions with infected people are very low-risk, especially if everyone is wearing a mask.  The little arrows can go away now.

Exactly. They're also basically pointless with masks now.

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Tinfoil hat time:

1) The impact of this virus has a profound correlation with age and comorbidities, both of which are expensive to treat in s health care system. Plus the elderly doing have as much expendable income as other groups.

2) The best mitigation strategies for containing the spread of the virus are to limit indoor, extended time interactions with other people. Thus accelerating the move to online and virtual gatherings and furthering our dependence on computers and the internet.

Who stands to gain from such effects? Microsoft, Apple, Google, EA, and other giant software companies.

* Note, I don't really believe this

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3 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Tinfoil hat time:

1) The impact of this virus has a profound correlation with age and comorbidities, both of which are expensive to treat in s health care system. Plus the elderly doing have as much expendable income as other groups.

2) The best mitigation strategies for containing the spread of the virus are to limit indoor, extended time interactions with other people. Thus accelerating the move to online and virtual gatherings and furthering our dependence on computers and the internet.

Who stands to gain from such effects? Microsoft, Apple, Google, EA, and other giant software companies.

* Note, I don't really believe this

Don't forget Amazon

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, shader said:

Nailed it.  Great post. 

One factor that hasn't been talked about much is this:  By the time the New York spike in deaths hit the peak, they had been in lockdown for 4 weeks.  

There are no lockdowns now....

We’ve spiked in Austin, and Texas generally. State opened May 1. Exponentials, meaning cases and hospitalizations doubling over short time periods, started in earnest two weeks ago (in course of 10 days, Austin went from 7 day moving average of 7 new hospitalizations to 25, and are now over 70.) 

The seeding of exponential rise in cases takes around 2 months. It’s there in the data.

You see fingerprints along the way, but assuming the R0 remains similar, the scary doubling of the doubling starts to become material after several rounds of retransmission, each with an incubation period of a few days. 2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096. Imagine 5 days between each, and there’s your 2 month road to a crisis.

I’ve seen a lot of pundits arguing whether the current outbreak was heavily influenced by the protests. My argument is that we won’t truly feel that impact for 2-3 weeks from now. I suspect the current wave is mostly just a product of reopening, and cases spread from the protests will produce an incremental exponential wave unless something radically changes in terms of behavior. 

Unfortunately, that thing is another full lockdown, and we’re probably hours away from that here. (We’ve entered the criteria of 70 new daily hospitalizations to trigger Stage 5, and expect it’s imminent.)

You may have also read that the downtown convention center has been prepped as a triage hospital.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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31 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

We’ve spiked in Austin, and Texas generally. State opened May 1. Exponentials, meaning cases and hospitalizations doubling over short time periods, started in earnest two weeks ago (in course of 10 days, Austin went from 7 day moving average of 7 new hospitalizations to 25, and are now over 70.) 

The seeding of exponential rise in cases takes around 2 months. It’s there in the data.

You see fingerprints along the way, but assuming the R0 remains similar, the scary doubling of the doubling starts to become material after several rounds of retransmission, each with an incubation period of a few days. 2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096. Imagine 5 days between each, and there’s your 2 month road to a crisis.

I’ve seen a lot of pundits arguing whether the current outbreak was heavily influenced by the protests. My argument is that we won’t truly feel that impact for 2-3 weeks from now. I suspect the current wave is mostly just a product of reopening, and cases spread from the protests will produce an incremental exponential wave unless something radically changes in terms of behavior. 

Unfortunately, that thing is another full lockdown, and we’re probably hours away from that here. (We’ve entered the criteria of 70 new daily hospitalizations to trigger Stage 5, and expect it’s imminent.)

You may have also read that the downtown convention center has been prepped as a triage hospital.

Do you really think Abbott will lock it down?  I doubt it.   

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10 hours ago, jamny said:

Gee, I remember making this same point a few months ago when I bothered trying to have a discussion in this thread and was told that new cases alone was a valid stat that didnt need total tests taken to give it some reference.

I agree I was formerly too reliant on case counts.  Advice from you and others in here changed my perspective.  To learn from each other is a good thing, even if at times I can be a bit hard-headed about change at the outset.

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57 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

We’ve spiked in Austin, and Texas generally. State opened May 1. Exponentials, meaning cases and hospitalizations doubling over short time periods, started in earnest two weeks ago (in course of 10 days, Austin went from 7 day moving average of 7 new hospitalizations to 25, and are now over 70.) 

The seeding of exponential rise in cases takes around 2 months. It’s there in the data.

You see fingerprints along the way, but assuming the R0 remains similar, the scary doubling of the doubling starts to become material after several rounds of retransmission, each with an incubation period of a few days. 2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096. Imagine 5 days between each, and there’s your 2 month road to a crisis.

I’ve seen a lot of pundits arguing whether the current outbreak was heavily influenced by the protests. My argument is that we won’t truly feel that impact for 2-3 weeks from now. I suspect the current wave is mostly just a product of reopening, and cases spread from the protests will produce an incremental exponential wave unless something radically changes in terms of behavior. 

Unfortunately, that thing is another full lockdown, and we’re probably hours away from that here. (We’ve entered the criteria of 70 new daily hospitalizations to trigger Stage 5, and expect it’s imminent.)

You may have also read that the downtown convention center has been prepped as a triage hospital.

Hours away in Austin?  I really hope so, that's great news if true.  

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15 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

This is all just so stupid. 90% of the rest of the world has figured out that there are really easy low cost low effort things you can do to virtually stop the spread yet we’re too stubborn and selfish to just wear masks around other people and social distance. Basically every country in the world whose people are doing those two things have essentially stopped the virus in their country. This isn’t difficult.

It's pretty simple when top leadership dismisses this as no big deal and actively goes against the very solutions that will knock the cases down to manageable. Yes I know there is a forum for that and I'm not beating the horse but this would be a completely different response if we did not have top leadership doing what they are doing right now.

And you're correct, this isn't difficult. It's very simple and fairly easy to accomplish. We can't get there from here right now. Check out Tulsa's numbers in the last few days. 'Murica

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Posted (edited)

As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society.  I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.

Just seemed like an obvious parallel.  Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing.  It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate.  It works because everyone understands and follows along.  Here, however, it's futile.  So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter.  And it only takes 1 person to affect a whole bunch of people on the road.

Just like masks.

Edited by gianmarco
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54 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Do you really think Abbott will lock it down?  I doubt it.   

Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.

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5 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Almost every respiratory virus surges in the fall/winter. Why?

1. Cold weather keeps people indoors, in close proximity to others

2. Kids are intermingling in school and vacation breaks with extended family

3. Respiratory droplets evaporate less quickly in cold weather

4. Vitamin D levels are lower, with relative immunosuppression in some

All the other coronaviruses peak in winter, too.

Your glass is certainly half full of something, and it stinks about as bad as the assumptions you’re making.

That's fine, I feel like I qualified my statement sufficiently to show doubt.  There were a billion and one experts that were predicting a pull back in the summer, including the IHME models having this thing going to damn near zero by August.  They still have that bias baked in to their update yesterday.

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8 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.

My understanding is his most recent orders override local orders.  See link

 

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/abbott-says-his-order-overrides-local-disaster-rules/

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1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

Do you really think Abbott will lock it down?  I doubt it.   

Our benchmark to enter Stage 5 is 70 new hospitalizations, on a 7 day average. We are now at 75, as of yesterday, and it’s not slowing down. It was at 7 in mid June. 

I suspect the City is waiting to see if this trends back below 70 over the next day or two, but nothing suggests that it will.

How much over the official benchmark can we go before we pull the trigger? We’re already prepping the Convention Center for triage. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.

I think people overstate what the first lockdown really even was.

The biggest and most noticeable effect was shutting down restaurants and bars entirely, as well as indoor gatherings of 10+.  And schools.

There wasn't really an order to stay home as much as there wasn't anything to do if you left home. 

Several businesses switched to WFH models, but most of them have stayed with that.  And schools aren't back yet.

 

Having indoor restaurants and churches closed is the next most valid step IMO.  And universal masking.  That alone should put a huge halt on things.  But people LOVE their bloody ####### enchiladas.

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3 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

My understanding is his most recent orders override local orders.  See link

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/abbott-says-his-order-overrides-local-disaster-rules/


From that link, it looks like there's some debate:

Quote

 

In response to a question from a reporter about the Harris County order, Gov. Abbott said, “As we lay out in the booklet, page after page after page, we strongly recommend that everybody wear a mask. However, it’s not a mandate.” He said there is no penalty or fine for not wearing a mask. “My executive order supersedes any local order … we make it clear that no jurisdiction can impose any kind of penalty or fine ….”

Attorney and former Travis County Judge Bill Aleshire disagrees, insisting that Eckhardt, Adler and Hidalgo have the authority to issue such orders and that the governor’s order does not override local emergency regulations.

Aleshire cited Texas Government Code sec 418.108(g), saying the county judge has the authority independent of the governor to “control the movement of persons and the occupancy of premises in that area.”

Aleshire said Abbott is acting “kind of like Trump, Abbott thinks he’s in charge of everything. That’s not what the emergency management law says.”

 


Also, that link is from April 28th. I wonder if anything has gone down since then regarding this issue at the county level?

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Just now, culdeus said:

I think people overstate what the first lockdown really even was.

The biggest and most noticeable effect was shutting down restaurants and bars entirely, as well as indoor gatherings of 10+.  And schools.

There wasn't really an order to stay home as much as there wasn't anything to do if you left home. 

So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.

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Headlines yesterday were that Mayor Adler and City Council we’re assessing whether to enter Stage 5. I’m sure there is arm wrestling with the governor’s office. Seems inevitable since nothing suggests we’re trending in the right direction and we’re over the threshold we chose as critical. We’ll see, but would be shocked if we don’t see Stage 5 in next 3-5 days tops.

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Posted (edited)

July 4th, I took a walk around noon in 95 degree heat, largely to avoid people. Took a left onto a street called DK Ranch, which is wide and lined with ranch homes and lots of space between them. When I arrived, I could see at least 1/4 mile in both directions. Point is, it’s a place with nothing but space.

I had my earbuds and was chewing on a excellent Malcom Gladwell podcast, walking in the middle of the sidewalk. Out of nowhere, I see something to my right. A woman ran by so close, on the sidewalk, that she bumped the water bottle I was holding.

There was NO ONE else out. It would have been nothing for her to run around me on the grass or the street.

I was furious! She got an earful from me as she ran on. I understand the relative risk is low, but it speaks to a mindset around these parts. No one should be six inches from strangers these days, and remarkable to me that people don’t understand and respect this.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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