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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)

Forget the scare headline. That's still a lot of cases for so small a population of a county. And I assume people there live far apart, don't navigate crowds regularly, etc.

Do you have insight on how those 65 cases got there? An individual ranch, meat-packing plant, or some other kind of workplace? Some other way? I'm not sure of your exact location in Texas, but Real Country seems like it's relatively close to your neck of the woods.

According to this dashboard (type in "Real County" in the search box at upper left, then click on "Real County" at left), the county had 8 case on Monday, July 20th and 71 cases yesterday July 29th. Something's happening at the local level in Real County, even if the absolute numbers aren't eye-popping.
About 45 minutes away.... old timer rural community.  Cases are at a nursing home.

Link

Outside the nursing home, I doubt it is a hotspot at all.

 
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Worst case scenario: My Mother (Tampa FL area)  is 70 and in good shape except for chronic lung issues (had cancer scare and had one lobe of her lung removed). 

Just got a text... she just woke with 101.8 fever, vomited up advil/ZiCam, and a bit of tightness in the chest. She and dad are in line to get tested. 

####. Ever since January my obsession with this disease has been with trying to keep them (mostly her) safe. Now odds are high she has it. 
 
TBH, I would have her try to go to a hospital for rapid testing.  The risk is she doesn't have it right and gets exposed there. 

Given her situation I would imagine they admit her and put her on red right away.

Edit: Also, I typed fast I am obviously deeply sorry for your situation and want the best for you and your family.

 
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We are more resistant to being told what to do, have terrible leadership and a relatively unhealthy populace compared to much of the developed world.
Yeah, obesity is a huge risk factor for death and we are an incredibly obese nation. Combine that with poor mask use and lack of distancing for so long and with so many people and that’s a big part.

I think the other big piece is how we do elder care. I don’t think the nursing home model is predominant in much of the world. And early on we were sending Covid positive elderly to nursing homes where it then raged like wildfire killing the elderly. That was a major misstep in both New York and New Jersey with deadly consequences.

 
About 45 minutes away.... old timer rural community.  Cases are at a nursing home.

Link

Outside the nursing home, I doubt it is a hotspot at all.
Ah, OK. I was looking for local news coverage specific to Real Counties cases and coming up empty.

One thing that I think I know about nursing home outbreaks is that don't seem to tend to spread out to the wider community, at least not in recent months when places have gotten a better handle on what they're dealing with re: COVID-19. That should go double for a spread-out, sparsely-populated area like Real County.

 
TBH, I would have her try to go to a hospital for rapid testing.  The risk is she doesn't have it right and gets exposed there. 

Given her situation I would imagine they admit her and put her on red right away.

Edit: Also, I typed fast I am obviously deeply sorry for your situation and want the best for you and your family.
Buddy who owns clinics here got me a list of places that carry 15 min tests from his rep. 

Called around and found a place that squeezed her in at 3pm after I pleaded my case. Mom is finalizing the appt with their online portal. 

Fingers crossed. 

 
Buddy who owns clinics here got me a list of places that carry 15 min tests from his rep. 

Called around and found a place that squeezed her in at 3pm after I pleaded my case. Mom is finalizing the appt with their online portal. 

Fingers crossed. 
Hoping for great news here GB. Still stuff out there besides COVID. 

:FingersCrossed:

 
culdeus said:
Local private schools dramatically changing plans today.  Some going 100% as is in person on time now.  Fort Worth ones making the biggest changes.  

My sister teaches at one that will be entirely in person day after labor day.  From what I gather they will offer some online stuff but not clear what participation they get.  
I'm not familiar with your area, but no tuition no school. Unless government orders dictate otherwise most private schools around here are opening. Our kids are going, my wife's school is opening, as is the college I work for.

I was pleasantly surprised with the message sent out last night though. I'm in admin and our office needs to be open during regular business hours, but working remote has been extended on a case-to-case basis. I'll still go in for part of one day per week, but I'm starting to believe I'll primarily be WFH into 2021. Which is great...as long as the kids are in school anyway. If not.

 
Arizona continues to look good in most hospital stats. The only COVID category that continues to increase is emergency visits. Overall acute beds and ICU have been increasing the last few days. Deaths hit a record high of 172 reported today but that’s to be expected. Deaths were scattered from 41 in the last 7 days, 71 in 7-14 days and 59 older than 14 days. Continuing with the long delays on death reporting and back filling the epi (actual date) death curve.

Testing is still woeful at testing with under 12k despite tomorrow being the day that capacity was promised to be increased to 35k and would be through the huge backlog.

 
#### #### ####

Worst case scenario: My Mother (Tampa FL area)  is 70 and in good shape except for chronic lung issues (had cancer scare and had one lobe of her lung removed). 

Just got a text... she just woke with 101.8 fever, vomited up advil/ZiCam, and a bit of tightness in the chest. She and dad are in line to get tested. 

####. Ever since January my obsession with this disease has been with trying to keep them (mostly her) safe. Now odds are high she has it. 
 
Hopefully they can get through....they are shutting down all the testing sites here in Central Florida in "preparation" for a storm that might get here on Sunday.  Those must be some complicated ### pop up tents they have to take down :mellow:  

 
Hopefully they can get through....they are shutting down all the testing sites here in Central Florida in "preparation" for a storm that might get here on Sunday.  Those must be some complicated ### pop up tents they have to take down :mellow:  
Are the pop up sites manned by locals? Could be travel arrangements that require the lead time. The pop up sites by us are manned partially by national guard. They move around a lot. 

 
Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity

"The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.

The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.

It's not entirely surprising because these are all members of a family. It's as though they're cousins in the same family," he said. "Now we have to see whether there is any impact of this in clinical practice. ... Does it make it more or less likely that the person who is infected with Covid actually will develop an illness? And does it have any implications for vaccine development?"

 
Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity

"The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.

The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.

It's not entirely surprising because these are all members of a family. It's as though they're cousins in the same family," he said. "Now we have to see whether there is any impact of this in clinical practice. ... Does it make it more or less likely that the person who is infected with Covid actually will develop an illness? And does it have any implications for vaccine development?"
Such a crapshoot.

 
Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity

"The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.

The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.

It's not entirely surprising because these are all members of a family. It's as though they're cousins in the same family," he said. "Now we have to see whether there is any impact of this in clinical practice. ... Does it make it more or less likely that the person who is infected with Covid actually will develop an illness? And does it have any implications for vaccine development?"
It's almost as if the old narrative that people need to build up their immunity systems is true.

 
MN hospitalizations have been holding steady around 250-260 the last week or so. But new cases are definitely up since around 6/15. Part of that is likely because testing is up (to around 12-15k a day now) but per John Hopkins the percent of positives has steadily climbed from under 2% in mid-June to nearly 5% now. 
MN hospitalizations bottomed out around 230 on 7/10 (ICU cases bottomed out around 100 on 7/16) but have slowly and steadily climbed since then. Currently at 298 hospitalized, with 141 of those being in ICU. Deaths have been in the single digits every day for a few weeks, so I guess that's good news (better than what we had been seeing in April and May).  The 7 day moving average of new positive tests has climbed from a low of 319 on 6/19 to 712. If you want to call it good news, the positivity rate has been 4.5-5.0 percent in MN the last two or three weeks, so it looks like the increase in new positive tests tracks with the increase in testing. 

Most large/chain stores had recently starting requiring masks and last week the governor issued an order requiring masks everywhere indoors. The few places I've gone indoors I've seen really good (I'd estimate 95% or more) compliance, so hopefully numbers start trending down. It could go either way, but I'm hopeful we'll start to see real improvement in MN somewhat soon. 

 
My wife's aunt, uncle, and cousins all went on a family trip to Ocean City, MD. According to our state rules, they need to quarantine for 14 days when they come back. They won't. I told my wife not to go around them for 2 weeks. But here's the real kicker. The aunt & uncle watch my wife's grandmother (the uncle's mother) full time. She is in her 90s and has dementia. She obviously didn't go on the trip but will be going home with them on their return. I almost feel like they want her to die so they don't have to take care of her anymore. So dumb and sad. 

 
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My wife's aunt, uncle, and cousins all went on a family trip to Ocean City, MD. According to our state rules, they need to quarantine for 14 days when they come back. They won't. I told my wife not to go around them for 2 weeks. But here's the real kicker. The aunt & uncle watch my wife's grandmother (the uncle's mother) full time. She is in her 90s and has dementia. She obviously didn't go on the trip but will be going home with them on their return. I almost feel like they want her to die so they don't have to take care of her anymore. So dumb and sad. 
Just pure selfishness.  

 
Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity

"The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.

The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.

It's not entirely surprising because these are all members of a family. It's as though they're cousins in the same family," he said. "Now we have to see whether there is any impact of this in clinical practice. ... Does it make it more or less likely that the person who is infected with Covid actually will develop an illness? And does it have any implications for vaccine development?"
That looks similar to BBC story I posted yesterday. They found t-cells like this in old samples of blood, like two years old maybe, dont remember exactly. 

 
MN hospitalizations bottomed out around 230 on 7/10 (ICU cases bottomed out around 100 on 7/16) but have slowly and steadily climbed since then. Currently at 298 hospitalized, with 141 of those being in ICU. Deaths have been in the single digits every day for a few weeks, so I guess that's good news (better than what we had been seeing in April and May).  The 7 day moving average of new positive tests has climbed from a low of 319 on 6/19 to 712. If you want to call it good news, the positivity rate has been 4.5-5.0 percent in MN the last two or three weeks, so it looks like the increase in new positive tests tracks with the increase in testing. 

Most large/chain stores had recently starting requiring masks and last week the governor issued an order requiring masks everywhere indoors. The few places I've gone indoors I've seen really good (I'd estimate 95% or more) compliance, so hopefully numbers start trending down. It could go either way, but I'm hopeful we'll start to see real improvement in MN somewhat soon. 
WI just announced mandatory masks starting Saturday.  Many local communities have had orders in place for weeks now but this is great news.  Social media is going to be very entertaining tonight once people hear this news. 

 
WI just announced mandatory masks starting Saturday.  Many local communities have had orders in place for weeks now but this is great news.  Social media is going to be very entertaining tonight once people hear this news. 
Interesting... curious what some of my friends and family will do now as they have been spending time in at cabins in WI so that they don't have to wear masks back home in MN.  

 
Are the pop up sites manned by locals? Could be travel arrangements that require the lead time. The pop up sites by us are manned partially by national guard. They move around a lot. 
We have both...some sites move, others have been in the same place the whole time (like at our convention center).  I don't know who works at them though.  All of them (that I've seen) are those $200 pop up tents people use at the beach.

 
That looks similar to BBC story I posted yesterday. They found t-cells like this in old samples of blood, like two years old maybe, dont remember exactly. 
Articles like this have been dripping and drabbing out for two months. In my own mind, I've seen enough about this from enough varying sources -- there's something to it.

Speculating: There's a hint of a possible COVID-19 resolution in articles like these. Instead of (A) true herd immunity and also instead of (B) a widely-distributed vaccine or anti-viral treatments ... (C) COVID-19 might simply diminish gradually after it has gone through the gravely unfortunate who were either especially vulnerable or did not have the "close-enough" T-cells in their bodies to limit the effects of a COVID-19 infection. At an indefinite point in the future, then, COVID-19 might simply become like so many other endemic diseases which human society is willing to risk to go about everyday human activities.

 
Why some people who haven't had Covid-19 might already have some immunity

"The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen -- possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.

The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.

It's not entirely surprising because these are all members of a family. It's as though they're cousins in the same family," he said. "Now we have to see whether there is any impact of this in clinical practice. ... Does it make it more or less likely that the person who is infected with Covid actually will develop an illness? And does it have any implications for vaccine development?"
It would be nice to have more studies to figure this out, as this could dramatically change the outlook.

As an example, imagine that 35% of people in NYC had T cells in their blood have immunity.  Then add to that the 20-25% of people in NYC that have already had covid.  WE could be in a situation where herd immunity isn't too far away in NYC...

 
Cross-posted in PSF - but this is not really a political question/answer:

Here is a question for the group:

In the spring, we talked about the coronavirus as a potentially seasonal thing.  There was speculation about it dying off in the heat of the summer, but then coming back in the fall/winter.

Obviously, the summer heat does not seem to have much effect - which is bad news.  But, wouldn't that also reduce the chances of it coming back stronger in the fall?  I assume there is something about influenza that causes that virus to go dormant in the warmer months, and re-vitalize in the colder months.  If that is not a condition of coronavirus - that would seem to be a good thing - once an effective vaccine is found.
This post reminded me about a question I've had but forgot to ask it.  Early on there were comments about folks getting the flu vaccine - if my recollection was correct it was a recommended thing to do.  I'm assuming that was solely because you wouldn't want to catch Covid and then the flu on top it.  There's nothing in the flu vaccine that helps with Covid - correct?  And that leads to my actual question.

The reason I ask is this - my wife is not able to get the flu vaccine due to having had Guillain-Barré as a child.  Would she also not be able to get the Covid vaccine?

 
Mom tested negative. Jesus that's good to hear. 

Was talking about getting winded just making the bed so I'm not 100% convinced, but that's insanely good news if true. A Flu B or Stomach bug positive would ease my mind further.  

Hopefully this scares them enough to stop having freinds over 2-3 times a week. "But It's just our neighbors (half of which are Anti-Maskers)"... "But it's just 6..8...10 of us".....

 
Buddy who owns clinics here got me a list of places that carry 15 min tests from his rep. 

Called around and found a place that squeezed her in at 3pm after I pleaded my case. Mom is finalizing the appt with their online portal. 

Fingers crossed. 
Best of luck man

eta: phew!

 
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A simple request - if you’re coming into the pharmacy to pickup you’re prescriptions for Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin please don’t start hacking up a lung as you approach the counter. And definitely don’t remove your mask to speak to us. I hate people.

Note: I did not sign off on filling this script.

 
Arizona continues to look good in most hospital stats.
No, they do NOT look good in any COVID19 related statistic.  At all.

You can say the numbers of the state are going in the right direction.  You can hope the state has turned the corner or hope the state has crested the peak of cases, etc.  Sorry to be pedantic, but you absolutely can not say that "Arizona continues to look good" when it comes to this virus.

Arizona has been a complete #### show.  It's cool to be optimistic, be let's also be real here.

 
Mom tested negative. Jesus that's good to hear. 

Was talking about getting winded just making the bed so I'm not 100% convinced, but that's insanely good news if true. A Flu B or Stomach bug positive would ease my mind further.  

Hopefully this scares them enough to stop having freinds over 2-3 times a week. "But It's just our neighbors (half of which are Anti-Maskers)"... "But it's just 6..8...10 of us".....
Great that it was negative! Did they ask her to retest? Family member that I have that was positive tested negative at first (displaying mild symptoms at that time) and positive 5 days later when they asked her to retest. Hoping for the best and a quick recovery, no matter what, GB.

 
No, they do NOT look good in any COVID19 related statistic.  At all.

You can say the numbers of the state are going in the right direction.  You can hope the state has turned the corner or hope the state has crested the peak of cases, etc.  Sorry to be pedantic, but you absolutely can not say that "Arizona continues to look good" when it comes to this virus.

Arizona has been a complete #### show.  It's cool to be optimistic, be let's also be real here.
True I could have worded it better but don’t mistake it for downplaying it. I’m probably one of the more pessimistic in this thread. ‘Looking good’ for me is not waking up to see new all-time highs for COVID hospitalization every day. You’re right, they’re not good but seeing those key hospital numbers at their lowest in nearly a month, that’s at least a positive trend and I’ll take the little wins right now.

 
WI just announced mandatory masks starting Saturday.  Many local communities have had orders in place for weeks now but this is great news.  Social media is going to be very entertaining tonight once people hear this news. 
I am happy to hear this. I am going to Green Bay area next week to buy a camper. I looked up the guy I am buying it from, and well, by what he posts on social media, it is not a stretch to imagine he is 110% anti-masker. Hopefully the mandate allows me to avoid any awkward confrontations

 
I am happy to hear this. I am going to Green Bay area next week to buy a camper. I looked up the guy I am buying it from, and well, by what he posts on social media, it is not a stretch to imagine he is 110% anti-masker. Hopefully the mandate allows me to avoid any awkward confrontations
Multiple county law enforcement offices now saying they will not enforce the mandate.    

Good.....they have more important things to be concerned with than mask enforcement.

 
Mom tested negative. Jesus that's good to hear. 

Was talking about getting winded just making the bed so I'm not 100% convinced, but that's insanely good news if true. A Flu B or Stomach bug positive would ease my mind further.  

Hopefully this scares them enough to stop having freinds over 2-3 times a week. "But It's just our neighbors (half of which are Anti-Maskers)"... "But it's just 6..8...10 of us".....
Awesome. :thumbup:

 
More gloominess at Covid worldometers: 280,000 new cases with the US back in the lead with over 68,000 new cases.  Brazil (58K) and India (55K) close behind.  This is still widespread with 28 countries over 1,000 new cases for the day.  Over 6,200 deaths with the US leading the way with 1,465 deaths

The seven-day averages for cases in the US trended down slightly this week, however, the rolling average for daily deaths has continued to rise through July.  Here in Illinois, we had our highest new case count in two months.

 
Yep. Nothing would make me feel more confident in my local law enforcement than knowing they pick and choose what laws and mandates they want to enforce.
Were you confident in them before.. ya know, when they picked and chose what laws and mandates to enforce?

 
Multiple county law enforcement offices now saying they will not enforce the mandate.    

Good.....they have more important things to be concerned with than mask enforcement.
Can you imagine being a cop/officer and getting called over every time someone isn't wearing a mask?

What are you gonna do, arrest them.. throw them in jail?  

 
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Cases seem to be dropping in hospitalized COVID patients at Miami's 2 largest health systems, Jackson (449, 428, 471, 456, 472, 485, 465, 433, 421) and Baptist (808, 785, .., ..., 746, 704, 650) https://twitter.com/jacksonhealth

County-wide numbers of hospitalized COVID patients are also trending down, although not a fast: https://twitter.com/conarck/status/1288891345575325697

In other news: How many health workers has COVID killed? Fla. says it has no data. False, ex-data guru says. Seems like Florida and Texas aren't making it easy to find out how many many nurses, etc have died with COVID-19, but California is more transparent. It took a lawsuit for Tallahassee to release data about deaths in individual nursing homes.

Perhaps reported earlier : Cases Declining, Deaths Rising, Hospital Data Remains a Question Mark: This Week in COVID-19 Data, July 30

Many of the tracking web-sites are so much better on my laptop than my phone.

 
Doug B said:
At an individual level?
For me and you? No.

But we arent the people that would bring up all the exceptions that would ultimately lead to it not actually being a lockdown. 

Everybody stay inside for two weeks please! Well what about the people that cant afford a fridge and eat out every meal? Fine, restaurants can stay open! Well what about the restaurant workers and HCWs that drive to work? Fine car repair and car dealerships can stay open, towing providers and auto parts stores too. Well what if the a/c goes out at one of those places? Fine HVAC places too and hardware stores. And on and on. 
Everything you brought up is a solvable problem. Solving such problems is a matter of will.

This summer has illustrated in devastating detail the human and economic cost of not launching a system of national testing, which most every other industrialized nation has done. South Korea serves as the gold standard, with innovative “phone booth” and drive-through testing sites, results that get returned within 24 hours, and supportive isolation for those who test positive, including food drop-offs.

In the U.S., by contrast, cable news and front pages have been dominated by images of miles-long lines of cars in scorching Arizona and Texas heat, their drivers waiting hours for scarce diagnostic tests, and [redacted - political]. In short, a “freaking debacle,” as one top public health expert put it.
What's the hang-up on getting Americans food in a hypothetical hard lockdown situation? There are a jillion other ways to do that besides "work for wages, then go buy food".

And heck -- even in Wuhan during the hardest part of their lockdown ... households were allowed to grocery-shop weekly.

 

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