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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Asymptomatic cases that never even tested positive got assigned a cost of 11k if I read that study right. I admit to doing a lot of skimming once i got to that part.
gobrowns33
Footballguy
The more and more I see how other countries are fairing and how cases are spiking, the more it appears the initial lockdown to slow the initial spread was the only worthwhile lockdown. The virus needs to run it's course and it will...see France for example, and UK is starting to spike again as well. Sweden is proof of if you can let it run its course and spike that you will be in better shape for the long run. The longer you stay lockdowned, the longer you are just delaying the inevitable.
For example, my current state is Georgia, my family is there, but unfortunately I have been out of the country during all this for work. Georgia has been fully opened since April...restaurants, salons, massages, etc...we had the same spike as most places in July and August. Didn't add any new restrictions and cases have been dropping. We have the same daily curve case as California, who added new restrictions in August and their "experts" attribute their dropping cased to the new lockdowns/restrictions. Georgia had the same drop in cases over the same period, with zero changes and staying fully open.
Additionally, everyone is calling for cases to spike with school opening. Georgia has had schools opened since beginning of August, so almost 6 weeks now and no spike. I know a few in the Atlanta area had a bumpy start, but I will use my city as an example. We have about 150K pop. I have kids in 3 different schools, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th grade...plus the wife teaches K. Not one class or school day has been missed in our county due to COVID. No spike in cases over 6 weeks. Only a hand full of cases at all. Full in-person school is going well, only about 20-25% of kids chose to do full virtual vice full in-school.
For example, my current state is Georgia, my family is there, but unfortunately I have been out of the country during all this for work. Georgia has been fully opened since April...restaurants, salons, massages, etc...we had the same spike as most places in July and August. Didn't add any new restrictions and cases have been dropping. We have the same daily curve case as California, who added new restrictions in August and their "experts" attribute their dropping cased to the new lockdowns/restrictions. Georgia had the same drop in cases over the same period, with zero changes and staying fully open.
Additionally, everyone is calling for cases to spike with school opening. Georgia has had schools opened since beginning of August, so almost 6 weeks now and no spike. I know a few in the Atlanta area had a bumpy start, but I will use my city as an example. We have about 150K pop. I have kids in 3 different schools, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th grade...plus the wife teaches K. Not one class or school day has been missed in our county due to COVID. No spike in cases over 6 weeks. Only a hand full of cases at all. Full in-person school is going well, only about 20-25% of kids chose to do full virtual vice full in-school.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
We’ve been through this already...many of those conditions were caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection, not independently present: pneumonia, ARDS, respiratory failure, sepsis, respiratory/cardiac arrest, for example. Others may have been precipitated by the infection, like renal failure and stroke, but can also occur outside the context of covid 19 and contribute to death.
But let’s limit it to pre-existing diagnoses like obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, chronic pulmonary and heart disease. Well over 50% of the population has one or more of those conditions, and the risk goes up as you age.
So yes, covid-19, just like about every other major cause of death, is associated with comorbid medical illness. How does that fact change your approach to the disease as an individual, and how should it influence public policy?
And FTR, when a transmissible disease is as common as covid-19, more than a few otherwise healthy people will be impacted by it. Losing friends and loved ones sucks, as do lingering symptoms in many who don’t die of the infection.
top dog
Footballguy
There is a lot of debate on this out there. Seems like I see one study that shows Sweden did the right thing, then a different study that says they did the wrong thing. Same with reopening vs. staying shut. It is really a difficult thing to figure out. I take COVID pretty seriously, but I'm not sheltering in place. Can't. Have to go to work. Still have to buy stuff. Actually went to a sit down diner to eat one time since this all started (recently). And I've been through financial ruin in my life. It is HORRIBLE. It is very devastating itself. Just crushing the economy is not going to solve everything. My daughter was out of work for about two months when Ohio shut down non-essential businesses (which excluded MOST businesses by the way). Luckily we were in a good place to be able to help her through it. I don't believe that just shutting everything down is the answer
I agree the first shutdown was necessary. Every day that passes we learn something new about the virus and get one day closer to a potential vaccine. Slowing it down so it wouldn't overwhelm the system and prolonging the general exposure to people. I know I want to wait as long as I can (if not forever) before I contract it. I have some risk factors and would prefer to have the best medical techniques available to fight COVID available to me. That best medical treatments are always getting better with each day.
I believe and have believed since the start of all this that had we taken basic precautions (social distance, wear masks, reopen responsibly) we would have been able to keep this in check much better than we have. But the reality is our country is so divided that we can't even come up with a plan to fight an invisible enemy that doesn't give two craps about whether we are RED or BLUE.
:(
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
GoBirds
Footballguy
Thanks for the response TD, really sorry to hear you have had to see so many close to you impacted. Hang in there man and stay safe.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
Numbers from ydays testing (per worldometer):
SD tested (159250-156686=) 2564 people o f which 263 were positive (10.2%)
ND tested (214292-212129=) 2163 people of which 333 were positive (15.4%)
IA tested (684395-674623=) 9772 people of which 984 were positive (10.1%)
Seems there's still at bit of triage happening there before testing given the high positive perventages. Good that is it down from past week
Doug B
Footballguy
The numbers don't bear that out. Between March 8th and May 1st, Germany's cases increased 16 fold -- that was their first wave. See the first graph on each link below:
Total Coronavirus Cases in Germany
Total Coronavirus Cases in France
Total Coronavirus Cases in Italy
Now, France is having a pronounced and concerning second wave in comparison to their neighbors. Germany has actually been going through a mild acceleration in detected cases since early August. Italy's been going through something similar (but lesser) over the last few weeks.
EDIT: To be fair, Germany's COVID-19 deaths-per-million figure is far below their neighbors. The UK, Sweden, France, Spain, and Italy are all between 472 and 635 deaths-per-million. Germany is at 112.
Norway and Finland -- Sweden's immediate neighbors to the east and west -- average about 60 deaths-per-million together. Denmark at 109 is in line with neighboring Germany.
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msommer
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Germany's active cases and deaths have barely budged in the last 30 days. They are absolutely an outlier in the EU and represent probably what could be considered a western world best case situation. I mean you have to go back to the 2nd week of May to pick up 1000 deaths. In Texas (55 Million fewer people than Germany) we've had that many deaths since last Wednesday.
msommer
Footballguy
If Texas were a country it would currently rank 16th in the world for deaths per capita. Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK would rank higher. The other 22 EU members lower.
Currently deaths in Texas per day outstrips those five countries combined (thus Texas moving up faster, relatively, than those countries)
Doug B
Footballguy
Germany was at 11,362 actives on 8/11/2020, and 15,388 yesterday.
Now, the week of 8/11 - 8/18 saw an increase from 11,362 to 15,900 in Germany's actives. So I guess I'm really just splitting hairs with you -- their active case count has been stable for a few weeks now.
Deaths-per-million, from what I can gather, has been Germany's most successful metric compared to their neighbors. Same for all of Scandinavia minus Sweden, and for Poland.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing, it’s really sad the shame and blame for events like this yet others of similar density get a pass. Disappointing we can’t get news that isn’t based on Blue or Red.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
They couldnt be more obvious.
Wisconsin election-superspreader event!
BLM protests-reduces cases
Sturgis- 20% of all cases in the US!
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
So i actually see that the cdc report itself says twice as likely. Still not understanding that.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Seems like forever since I created this thread 
this year has flown by
this year has flown by
Doug B
Footballguy
The only thing I can think of, looking at the original CDC study, is that they are somehow not going by the percentages in this table at all.
From the very beginning of the CDC link, the Summary section:
So in this case, it's not the media hamming up the raw data -- the CDC itself is also going with "twice as likely" in its summary narrative. But that begs the question: What is that summary narrative based on? The long paragraph below the Summary section contains this:
Now. I can't figure out yet what "adjusted odds ratio" is, what it's based on, what are its inputs ... nothing. I am really curious about what underpins these "adjusted odds ratios.
Maybe because they are also invoking a confidence interval, that allows them to (credibly?) stretch the raw numbers: "Meh, when you account for confidence intervals and whatnot ... 'around 40' overlaps with twice 'around 27'. It's all squishy numbers, anyhow."
EDIT: On the bottom of this page, the CDC unhelpfully 'explains' what 'adjusted odds ratio' is:
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
That makes no sense. The infected group had far higher percentage of black/latino. Age was very close. So was male/female ratio.
I actually think any adjusted odds should have made the %'s closer.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Odds ratio = likelihood of something happening to one group vs. another group based on the data from whatever the study may be.
Adjusted odds ratio = likelihood of something happening to one group vs. another group based on the data from whatever the study may be after adjustment for things that could be confounding variables. This is a very common statistical measure in scientific and medical studies.
I am a medical journalist so I see these often. I couldn't tell you how to calculate them, but I know how to interpret them. This page may help a bit.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I've said this before in other contexts, but it holds here too. If a particular social science paper shows results that support the preconceived narrative of the researcher, you're probably safe in simply ignoring it. Anybody who's actually done this sort of work knows how easy it is to torture your data until they confess -- there's a reason why all social scientists use that same joke.parasaurolophus said:
When a bunch of papers making up a large majority of the literature all lean in the same direction, then it's time to take notice. Even then, a little skepticism is probably warranted.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Social science maybe, but even so I think you are being a overly cynical. Hard science data is less torturable.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This either wasnt hard science data or hard science data is just as easily manipulated. They used anonymized cell phone pings. Then they used case data that they created. They literally created their own baseline of cases for the county this was held in. They had no ethnicity or age related data or community spread percentages.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Haven't looked at the study, but this is important. This kind of thing has contributed to the erosion of trust in science.
culdeus
Footballguy
The definition of the word study is being stretched. It was more or less a simulation.
McBokonon
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
SGO the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial has resumed in the UK, based approval by the UK authorities (MHRA)
The Commish
Footballguy
Will be interesting to see if any of the stateside quests are paused and made known to us.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
If they are public companies we will absolutely find out.
Will be interesting to see if any of the stateside quests are paused and made known to us.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
The WHO still claims this...
"contamination on surfaces touched by employees and customers is one of
the main ways that COVID-19 spreads"
Also wtf is respiratory hygiene?
"• Promote good respiratory hygiene in the workplace
– Display posters promoting respiratory hygiene. Combine this with other communication
measures such as guidance from occupational health and safety officers, briefing at
meetings, and information on the intranet, etc.
– Ensure that face masks1 or paper tissues are available at your workplaces, for those who
develop a runny nose or cough at work, along with closed bins for hygienically disposing
of them
– Why? Because good respiratory hygiene prevents the spread of COVID-19."
"contamination on surfaces touched by employees and customers is one of
the main ways that COVID-19 spreads"
Also wtf is respiratory hygiene?
"• Promote good respiratory hygiene in the workplace
– Display posters promoting respiratory hygiene. Combine this with other communication
measures such as guidance from occupational health and safety officers, briefing at
meetings, and information on the intranet, etc.
– Ensure that face masks1 or paper tissues are available at your workplaces, for those who
develop a runny nose or cough at work, along with closed bins for hygienically disposing
of them
– Why? Because good respiratory hygiene prevents the spread of COVID-19."
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Very much seeing attrition in the mask wearing department. We still have a statewide mandate.
Noticed a no masker in walgreens on thursday picking up a prescription for my wife. It stood out to me because I honestly couldnt remember the last time I saw somebody just not wearing one.
Friday at the grocery store saw two not wearing them.
Yesterday went to get gas and two cycle oil and the gas station clerk and another customer both werent wearing them. Turned right around as they were just chatting away. So I went to lowes down the street for two cycle and saw two more people not wearing masks.
Noticed a no masker in walgreens on thursday picking up a prescription for my wife. It stood out to me because I honestly couldnt remember the last time I saw somebody just not wearing one.
Friday at the grocery store saw two not wearing them.
Yesterday went to get gas and two cycle oil and the gas station clerk and another customer both werent wearing them. Turned right around as they were just chatting away. So I went to lowes down the street for two cycle and saw two more people not wearing masks.
top dog
Footballguy
Welp.. Just got word that one of the girls in our warehouse tested positive. I don't deal with her directly, but after seeing what this did to our sister facility, I'm a little worried. She is a very young girl. Probably like 25. New employee. She was having stomach issues on thur / fri apparently. Got tested at some point and it came back positive. I'm sure she will be fine, but we have some older folks in the warehouse that are definitely higher risk.
Of course, if we took it seriously, maybe I'd feel better. Management has downplayed this here even though we had that big outbreak in March.
Of course, if we took it seriously, maybe I'd feel better. Management has downplayed this here even though we had that big outbreak in March.
msommer
Footballguy
Monoclonal antibodies to begin UK trial
A new antibody treatment is to be trialled on Covid-19 patients in UK hospitals.
Monoclonal antibodies, which are potent, laboratory-made antibodies, will be given to about 2,000 people to see if they are effective against coronavirus.
It forms part of the UK Recovery Trial, which found that a cheap steroid called dexamethasone could save lives.
The first patients will be given the new drugs in the coming weeks.
Prof Martin Landray from the University of Oxford, who is co-leading the Recovery Trial, said: “This is the first type of treatment that's targeted for this specific virus.
“There are lots of good reasons for thinking it might well be effective - stopping the virus from reproducing, stopping the virus from causing damage, improving survival for patients.
“We need to know, and the way to know is to do the trials that will tell us whether that hope turns into reality.”
What are monoclonal antibodies?
Antibodies could be described as the "warriors" of the immune system.
When coronavirus infects your body, antibodies attach to the spikes of the virus, blocking it from entering your cells.
But we produce many different types of antibodies - the most potent are called neutralising antibodies.
So scientists "sieve" through them to find the one that’s best at sticking to the spike.
The chosen antibody is multiplied in the lab, and produced in huge quantities.
This is then given to patients, immediately boosting their immune response.
Which monoclonal antibodies are being used in the trial?
The trial will test a mixture of two monoclonal antibodies made by the US biotech company Regeneron.
Both attach to the spike of the virus at slightly different places. So if the virus mutates, and the structure changes, at least one should still work.
Regeneron has already produced monoclonal antibodies that can treat Ebola.
Leah Lipsich, vice president of the company, said: "We're hoping that we can springboard from that very effective result against Ebola to something that's just as effective with Covid-19."
How will the trial work?
The UK Recovery Trial was set up at the start of the pandemic to identify treatments that could help people admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
It has already showed the steroid dexamethasone cuts the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators, and by a fifth for those on oxygen.
Patients will start being given monoclonal antibodies in the next few weeks, and the results will be compared with other patients who have not been given the antibodies.
Prof Landray expects that about 2,000 people in each group will be needed to answer key questions.
He said: “We need to understand not only if these treatments work. We also need to understand in whom do they work, and in whom do they work best.
“Do they work in people who are older or younger? Do they work in people with more severe or milder disease? Do they work in people only when they're on ventilators or, possibly more likely, before they ever need ventilators?”
The results will also be compared with people receiving convalescent plasma, another treatment currently undergoing trials by the Recovery team. This is where plasma, the yellowish, liquid part of blood, is taken from people who’ve recovered from coronavirus and given to patients.
The Recovery Trial is also looking at azithromycin, a commonly used antibiotic, and tocilizumab, an anti-inflammatory treatment.
Which other diseases are monoclonal antibodies used for?
Monoclonal antibodies have been used clinically since the 1980s, and are used to treat many diseases including some forms of cancer.
But because they are a relatively new technology, they can be expensive.
The price for the Covid treatment has not yet been set.
But Prof Landray says if it works, fair access to all patients, internationally, is an issue that needs to be considered.
Do we still need treatments if we have a vaccine?
Some vaccines are entering the final phase of trials, but none are near being ready to roll out.
And with Covid cases rising, people are still being hospitalised and some are dying.
Apart from dexamethasone and another cheap steroid, hydrocortisone, there are no other clinically proven treatments for Covid-19, so finding new ways to help patients is vital.
But even once we do have a vaccine, treatments will continue to play a role.
Leah Lipsich, from Regeneron, said: “There will be populations - the immunocompromised, the elderly - who may not mount a sufficient immune response to a vaccine and will require treatment.
“And we feel very strongly that these highly potent neutralising antibodies really will help boost the immune response, and will always be needed even even when a vaccine is available.”
A new antibody treatment is to be trialled on Covid-19 patients in UK hospitals.
Monoclonal antibodies, which are potent, laboratory-made antibodies, will be given to about 2,000 people to see if they are effective against coronavirus.
It forms part of the UK Recovery Trial, which found that a cheap steroid called dexamethasone could save lives.
The first patients will be given the new drugs in the coming weeks.
Prof Martin Landray from the University of Oxford, who is co-leading the Recovery Trial, said: “This is the first type of treatment that's targeted for this specific virus.
“There are lots of good reasons for thinking it might well be effective - stopping the virus from reproducing, stopping the virus from causing damage, improving survival for patients.
“We need to know, and the way to know is to do the trials that will tell us whether that hope turns into reality.”
What are monoclonal antibodies?
Antibodies could be described as the "warriors" of the immune system.
When coronavirus infects your body, antibodies attach to the spikes of the virus, blocking it from entering your cells.
But we produce many different types of antibodies - the most potent are called neutralising antibodies.
So scientists "sieve" through them to find the one that’s best at sticking to the spike.
The chosen antibody is multiplied in the lab, and produced in huge quantities.
This is then given to patients, immediately boosting their immune response.
Which monoclonal antibodies are being used in the trial?
The trial will test a mixture of two monoclonal antibodies made by the US biotech company Regeneron.
Both attach to the spike of the virus at slightly different places. So if the virus mutates, and the structure changes, at least one should still work.
Regeneron has already produced monoclonal antibodies that can treat Ebola.
Leah Lipsich, vice president of the company, said: "We're hoping that we can springboard from that very effective result against Ebola to something that's just as effective with Covid-19."
How will the trial work?
The UK Recovery Trial was set up at the start of the pandemic to identify treatments that could help people admitted to hospital with Covid-19.
It has already showed the steroid dexamethasone cuts the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators, and by a fifth for those on oxygen.
Patients will start being given monoclonal antibodies in the next few weeks, and the results will be compared with other patients who have not been given the antibodies.
Prof Landray expects that about 2,000 people in each group will be needed to answer key questions.
He said: “We need to understand not only if these treatments work. We also need to understand in whom do they work, and in whom do they work best.
“Do they work in people who are older or younger? Do they work in people with more severe or milder disease? Do they work in people only when they're on ventilators or, possibly more likely, before they ever need ventilators?”
The results will also be compared with people receiving convalescent plasma, another treatment currently undergoing trials by the Recovery team. This is where plasma, the yellowish, liquid part of blood, is taken from people who’ve recovered from coronavirus and given to patients.
The Recovery Trial is also looking at azithromycin, a commonly used antibiotic, and tocilizumab, an anti-inflammatory treatment.
Which other diseases are monoclonal antibodies used for?
Monoclonal antibodies have been used clinically since the 1980s, and are used to treat many diseases including some forms of cancer.
But because they are a relatively new technology, they can be expensive.
The price for the Covid treatment has not yet been set.
But Prof Landray says if it works, fair access to all patients, internationally, is an issue that needs to be considered.
Do we still need treatments if we have a vaccine?
Some vaccines are entering the final phase of trials, but none are near being ready to roll out.
And with Covid cases rising, people are still being hospitalised and some are dying.
Apart from dexamethasone and another cheap steroid, hydrocortisone, there are no other clinically proven treatments for Covid-19, so finding new ways to help patients is vital.
But even once we do have a vaccine, treatments will continue to play a role.
Leah Lipsich, from Regeneron, said: “There will be populations - the immunocompromised, the elderly - who may not mount a sufficient immune response to a vaccine and will require treatment.
“And we feel very strongly that these highly potent neutralising antibodies really will help boost the immune response, and will always be needed even even when a vaccine is available.”
msommer
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
Same here, starting to see more and more without masks. Not a huge number but more than last month. To be expected, we as a nation, have the attention span of a gnat. Hope we don't see a resurgence over the winter.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Nobody has dispelled surface/fomite spread of SARS-CoV—2, though the exact role it plays will probably never be crystal clear.
Respiratory hygiene means coughing away from other people/into your inner elbow, promptly throwing away tissues and washing hands/surfaces after coughing on them. Wearing a mask when sick probably is included as well.
jamny
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Nobody has proven it either. So to say conclusively it is one of the main ways it is spread not good policy.
And the bold is exactly why I criticized their guidance on respiratory hygiene. This is advice to workplaces. Not to fellow doctors and nurses. There is no attachment of suggested posters. They literally give zero information about what is the standard definition of respiratory hygiene from almost every google search result, and was the first thing you mentioned as well. They certainly made sure to give instructions on how to get handwashing guidance. And of course they made sure to clarify not N95 masks.
This paper appears to have been written by an intern.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Well he probably doesnt want her getting pregnant when he visits her on wednesdays. Safe to assume he doesnt cover up other things amirite?
msommer
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
Was at a Lowes the other day trying to find some correct fittings for some stupid plumbing work I am trying to tackle myself.
Some dude starts chatting me up and asking whether PEX is as good as copper and what the difference is. Took me a second to realize that he was wearing no mask. Knew something was off, but just didn't register. Told him politely that the store, and the state of MN requires mask wearing. That only set him off and made him move even closer, yet all he wanted to do was chat about plumbing ####. I told him to #### off and get away from me. He refused. I walked away, found a security member and they escorted the dude right the #### out fo the store
Some dude starts chatting me up and asking whether PEX is as good as copper and what the difference is. Took me a second to realize that he was wearing no mask. Knew something was off, but just didn't register. Told him politely that the store, and the state of MN requires mask wearing. That only set him off and made him move even closer, yet all he wanted to do was chat about plumbing ####. I told him to #### off and get away from me. He refused. I walked away, found a security member and they escorted the dude right the #### out fo the store
beer 30
Footballguy
No, I agree it's not but given the response to date from leadership, what do you think happens if we do see a major resurgence from the virus as the weather gets cooler and kids come home from college? I know how I will react and suspect how most in this thread will react but we are a very small subset. I fear the vast majority will revert back to the "it's just the flu" mentality.
How did homey get in? Every store around here has multiple watchdogs at the door.
SwampDawg
Footballguy
Shark move here would have been to tell him you've been in plumbing all your life and what he was telling you was wrong and give him some BS fake advice.
