There is much variation between states, as seen on CovidActNow. Many northern states such as South Dakota and Wisconsin have seen large drops in cases, deaths and ICU hospitalizations per 100k population, while CA, TX, AR, GA and FL are still seeing increases. I'm not sure how to explain the timing of these waves, but there was clearly an early wave (NY), a July wave (FL), a November/December wave (WI, SD, etc) and Dec/Jan wave (Many southern states and MY, MA). On the CovidActNow website, multiple states, counties and cities can be compared over time.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
worrierking
Footballguy
All of the states that you listed (FL, GA, CA, TX, AR) appear to have peaked in cases of the current outbreak in the January 8-10 time frame and have been dropping since. This is similar to what's being seen in much of Europe, which seems to have peaked in this current surge a week or two prior to the US. As I said in my earleir post, I was reluctant to say anything because it could go back up, but the trend in the last 10 days or so is definitely down. Even states which had their worst surges earlier like Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin saw a mini uptick in December/early January (not their peak surge), but have trended down since early January.
culdeus
Footballguy
Holiday gatherings mostly drive this thing with the onset of colder weather driving the remainder, we are headed into the timeframe in which holiday gatherings are rare and temps will warm up. Even Easter is hardly celebrated in the US anymore. Spring Break would be the main driver on the horizon and that's two months away, at which time we all will be considering having fans in attendance for march madness.
Ohio is reporting the lowest number of hospitalizations since Mid-November.
https://www.whio.com/news/local/covid-19-hospitalizations-lowest-since-mid-november-curfew-deadline-approaches-this-week/WR6W2YQU7BGKHKRCEDSP762HOI/
https://www.whio.com/news/local/covid-19-hospitalizations-lowest-since-mid-november-curfew-deadline-approaches-this-week/WR6W2YQU7BGKHKRCEDSP762HOI/
nirad3
Footballguy
Seems like we've lost a few pages here, wonder where all the posts went..... did I miss something?
Anyways, good to hear folks are out getting vaccinated. That's a positive.
California is shut down pretty hard right now. Cases have spiked hardcore since November.
I am so over this. :(
Anyways, good to hear folks are out getting vaccinated. That's a positive.
California is shut down pretty hard right now. Cases have spiked hardcore since November.
I am so over this. :(
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Pretty much the entire midwest didnt follow this.culdeus said:
Maybe this thing needs a temperature AND humidity sweet spot to flourish.
culdeus
Footballguy
How so?
Here's Minnesota. Kicked into huge growth on Oct 25th.
https://www.google.com/search?q=minnesota+covid+chart&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS860US860&oq=minnesota+covid+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i131i433i457j0i131i433j0i395i433l2j0i131i395i433j0i395j69i60.3093j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/minneapolis/55415/october-weather/348794?year=2020
First freezing cold low temp on Oct 11th, just 14 days prior.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
My entire extended family has been out at bars and restaurants whenever possible. Without masks. They all live in WI and nothing about their life has been different the past 9 months (except when there were mandatory closures of bars & restaurants). My cousin updates us 2-3x per week on her latest meal out.
I just can't believe how stupid people are
https://nypost.com/2021/01/19/18-family-members-get-covid-19-after-holiday-gathering/
https://nypost.com/2021/01/19/18-family-members-get-covid-19-after-holiday-gathering/
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Lots of Wisconsinites have followed the recommendations and a lot have not. The Barflies definitely have not. I went out after the Packers win on Saturday and the bars were jam packed. There is definitely going to be a spike up due to Packers gatherings. Go Pack!
I haven't checked in since the page count was in double digits.
Now that it's 1000 deep, are we still getting reports of "my wife's sister's neighbor's brother in law is a firefighter, and he said we should make sure to have a full tank of gas in the car because something is going to happen in two days!"
Now that it's 1000 deep, are we still getting reports of "my wife's sister's neighbor's brother in law is a firefighter, and he said we should make sure to have a full tank of gas in the car because something is going to happen in two days!"
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Question for @Terminalxylem and other medical pros:
Due to get 2nd Moderna shot 2/10/21. I'm travelling abroad on 2/27/21.
They justifiably ask about other recent vaccines before giving your shot, so I'm waiting on my Hep A booster.
I presume I'm safe to get my Hep A shot a week after the Moderna shot? I want to give the Moderna vaccine time to fully settle in (they say ~5 days), but also want to give the Havrix shot time to work before travel as well.
Due to get 2nd Moderna shot 2/10/21. I'm travelling abroad on 2/27/21.
They justifiably ask about other recent vaccines before giving your shot, so I'm waiting on my Hep A booster.
I presume I'm safe to get my Hep A shot a week after the Moderna shot? I want to give the Moderna vaccine time to fully settle in (they say ~5 days), but also want to give the Havrix shot time to work before travel as well.
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Insoxicated
Ahhh someone got put in detention again
Nope, but our government DID finally figure out that masks were good, something the rest of the civilized world knew all along.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Then peaked less than a month later and continues down through the coldest months that also had New Years, Xmas, and Thanksgiving.
ETA: just looked at that weather chart for october in minneapolis. Sure the Low was 32 on the 11th. But the high the next 5 days 70, 80, 71, 68, 80. All higher than the week before the 11th.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
I can't say for sure, but that is a tight window and I think most vaccine windows are usually longer than that. Some of them are specific. I would contact whoever it is that is administrating your Hep A vaccine and find out what they say.
culdeus
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
Wasn’t there someone here who implied he wouldn’t get COVID at a a gathering because it was just his family in attendance?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Not sure what is confusing.
You said it is fueled by holidays and the onset of cold weather. Clearly in the midwest that isn't the case.
culdeus
Footballguy
Disagree, but whatever. Either way cases and subsequent issues arising from that are in a freefall in most of the country at this point.
nirad3
Footballguy
Hoping that freefall starts happening in southern California sooner rather than later. We were one of the least-hit areas for the majority of all this, and now it seems we are a hotbed.
waiver wire
Footballguy
ive got lot of friends like this
still going to bars with buddies (different groups) every week
here in vancouver and BC , our numbers were great in the 1st wave under 100 for months
restrictions were in place early , then loosened for the summer
then reapplied in late sept as numbers got worse
more restrictions in early December and they are in place probably until march as our numbers were getting bad
700/800 a day in mid December
we are down to 450/500 daily cases as of today
I take care of my parents so ive been really trying to minimize my risk but still live as its taken a bad mental toll on me
in a year i have only been inside 6 restaurants and inside 2 friends place.
waiver wire
Footballguy
ive got lot of friends like this
still going to bars with buddies (different groups) every week
here in vancouver and BC , our numbers were great in the 1st wave under 100 for months
restrictions were in place early , then loosened for the summer
then reapplied in late sept as numbers got worse
more restrictions in early December and they are in place probably until march as our numbers were getting bad
700/800 a day in mid December
we are down to 450/500 daily cases as of today
I take care of my parents so ive been really trying to minimize my risk but still live as its taken a bad mental toll on me
in a year i have only been inside 6 restaurants and inside 2 friends place.
Doug B
Footballguy
All these people still going to bars and all unmasked ... have people just been getting THAT lucky? Tons of asymptomatic cases that just never had any idea they were infected (or else shrugged off mild symptoms)?
There's something of a recent mini-outbreak in the exurban areas north of New Orleans -- the twist is that lots of people up there are getting COVID, but very few are even getting to the point of hospitalization. Lots of "I had no fever!" reports. "I only lost smell for a few days!" And so on. This was already a "just the flu" area before ... so now, they believe they were right all along
Got lucky with a mild strain that outcompeted other strains locally? Just hard to reconcile the varying experiences not just country to country and state to state, but town to town and even family to family.
There's something of a recent mini-outbreak in the exurban areas north of New Orleans -- the twist is that lots of people up there are getting COVID, but very few are even getting to the point of hospitalization. Lots of "I had no fever!" reports. "I only lost smell for a few days!" And so on. This was already a "just the flu" area before ... so now, they believe they were right all along
Got lucky with a mild strain that outcompeted other strains locally? Just hard to reconcile the varying experiences not just country to country and state to state, but town to town and even family to family.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Pennsylvania has a similar trend (link) - after peaking around mid-December, hospitalizations have started falling and are back to where they were end of November. It's odd because while cases and deaths have been sort of lumpy, hospitalizations have a very well-behaved curve that went up for two and half months straight and now it's a month of heading back down. New Jersey's curve looked almost identical until mid-December but has since plateaued rather than dropped.bcat01 said:
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
WI peaked at like 2200 hospitalizations on November 26th. Down to like 900 now. Pretty much a consistent line down.Pennsylvania has a similar trend (link) - after peaking around mid-December, hospitalizations have started falling and are back to where they were end of November. It's odd because while cases and deaths have been sort of lumpy, hospitalizations have a very well-behaved curve that went up for two and half months straight and now it's a month of heading back down. New Jersey's curve looked almost identical until mid-December but has since plateaued rather than dropped.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
San Antonio has it's highest hospitalization total ever this week, Would love to see these ANY sort of decline.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
I received my second pfizer shot yesterday at 2;30 pm. Definitely more arm pain than the first shot. I woke up this morning with VERY sore joints. I do have arthritis but this was another level. I decided for various reasons I could work today. I took tylenol at 7:30 am and was feeling pretty good for a while. Things took a turn around 4;00 pm.
I now have a pounding headache, sore joints, uncontrollable shivering unless I am bundled up in sweats and a blanket. I do not have a fever. I'm really feeling bad right now. If I felt like this earlier this morning I would not have gone into work. I am very achey all over.
Hoping this is just par for the course but I am a little worried here.
Edit to add that my tinnitus which I have had for years is also much worse?
I now have a pounding headache, sore joints, uncontrollable shivering unless I am bundled up in sweats and a blanket. I do not have a fever. I'm really feeling bad right now. If I felt like this earlier this morning I would not have gone into work. I am very achey all over.
Hoping this is just par for the course but I am a little worried here.
Edit to add that my tinnitus which I have had for years is also much worse?
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Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I don't have a place to upload the graph, but inspired by this, I took the hospitalizations from WI and PA and normalized them with respect to their peaks. PA's curve is a little narrower, but it's remarkably similar, especially considering these are time shifted by a month, so the holidays fall at different points.
Hospitalization vs. Peak fall/winter hospitalization:
Timeframe WI PA
Peak-10wk 13% 10%
Peak-6wk 36% 24%
Peak-4wk 51% 45%
Peak-2wk 73% 77%
Peak 100% 100%
Peak +2wk 79% 91%
Peak +4wk 62% 79%
Peak +6wk 49% TBD
Peak +8wk 45% TBD
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Kinda crazy. I find ND, SD, MN, and IA to look similar too. Peaks are all within a day I think. IL and MI I think are about a week later.
But graphs all follow same patterns.
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Insoxicated
Sorry GB bit those symptoms sound bad not outside what can be expected.
Check out r/Covidvaccinated for a TON of folks sharing their experiences. Hopefully it helps.
Current recommendation is no other vaccines 2 weeks before or 2 weeks after getting the COVID vaccination. I don’t know how much of that is decreased effectiveness vs. uncertainty.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Would a cedar allergy shot fall in that category? My wife gets shots weekly during cedar season. No way she could go four straight weeks without one.
culdeus
Footballguy
It's one of the things about this whole mess that has been consistent. An area with a severe outbreak follows more or less the same R0 behavior. I think at some point there is a human element here that realizes that #### has gotten really bad, and maybe they should lay low. That threshold seems to be reached about the time the test + rate exceeds 20% or so. Someone will make
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My understanding is that this is your body's immune response to the vaccine. This is good.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Or maybe this thing is primarily driven by a select group of people engaging in certain behaviors and then those people spreading within their "bubbles" and once all those people have caught it, they dont spread it anymore when they recover and continue to engage in said behaviors.
So anecdotally when Alex P and I see no change in bar and restaurant crowds, etc. Or when I see them packed in SD, that would fit.
Also hard to ignore that the midwest spikes and drops all coordinate perfectly with colleges being back in session and then many switching back to remote. In other words, hey young crazy drinkers come to school and party and spread covid. Oh btw young crazy drinkers we changed our minds, please take covid back to your families.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
I ended up calling into work today which I loathe. This morning I have bad headache, chills, and general aches. The chills are strange as they feel very transient.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Along those lines, I think the decision made sense at the time, but I wouldn't be surprised if abruptly closing the colleges and sending everyone home isn't eventually viewed with the benefit of hindsight as catastrophically bad. It took a group of people engaged in behavior that made them highly likely to be infectious but whose main interactions were with those who are at low risk of serious disease consequences, and scattered them across the country to mix with the general public.
culdeus
Footballguy
One of the more inconvenient truths throughout all this is talking spreads this thing at least as much as cough/sneeze. Additionally, talking/chatting in an enclosed space amplifies the effect. More and more the evidence seems to indicate that not only is this a chatting (even yawning) spread, that you can spread it prior to testing + for days.
So anything that drives people indoors, without masks, is tremendously risky. Why restaurants have remained open for indoor dining never made sense. Same with bars/churches. People tend to do those indoor things more in cold/bad weather and surrounding holidays. Not shocking to see the spikes correlate with moves indoors.
What people want to be true, is that if you feel sick, stay home, otherwise carry on. Hell, it's entirely possible that once you feel sick you aren't even shedding as much as you were 3 days prior. That's how wild ### this thing is.
Willy
Footballguy
I think both of these make a lot of sense. They don't strike me as totally mutually exclusive.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they treat allergy immunotherapy like vaccines wrt timing the covid vaccine. That being said, in general there is no need to alter the immunotherapy schedule in patients receiving vaccines; they’re just being extra careful with covid vaccination to avoid confounding variables if an allergic reaction develops.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'll wager $20 that it won't be full attendance at March Madness.culdeus said:
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
After 2 trips to one pharmacy Monday (national chain store which shall remain nameless) and a 3rd trip to another pharmacy yesterday, finally got my first dose yesterday. The inconsistency is amazing. My work qualifies us under the state guidelines for currently available population to vaccinate. Made an appointment, and when I showed up they needed a letter stating the exact verbiage from the state guidelines. Ok, but nobody ever put that information out on the appointment booking procedure! I had everything they listed on their website, but no letter, since that wasn't mentioned. Add to that fact, I had a coworker go to the exact same location (I was the one that helped her set up her appointment, no less, right after I did my own.) and they didn't even ask to see her ID! 
Since then several of us here in the office have had mixed results, but the store I went to seems to be the worst of the bunch. It literally depends on who is working as to what is required. It's almost like there was no centralized plan on any level to roll this out. 
I got to the other store yesterday and had no issues. I'm not even sure they looked at the letter, which my boss provided all of us after hearing my issues with the first store.
As for the shot itself, only minor shoulder pain, like I can tell it's a little inflamed. I did have one random sharp, shooting pain yesterday down my arm yesterday, but that was a one-time thing. Feeling great.
Just hopeful that I'm able to get the 2nd dose in 3-4 weeks.
Since then several of us here in the office have had mixed results, but the store I went to seems to be the worst of the bunch. It literally depends on who is working as to what is required. It's almost like there was no centralized plan on any level to roll this out. I got to the other store yesterday and had no issues. I'm not even sure they looked at the letter, which my boss provided all of us after hearing my issues with the first store.As for the shot itself, only minor shoulder pain, like I can tell it's a little inflamed. I did have one random sharp, shooting pain yesterday down my arm yesterday, but that was a one-time thing. Feeling great.
Just hopeful that I'm able to get the 2nd dose in 3-4 weeks.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
If Covid-19 Did Start With a Lab Leak, Would We Ever Know?
My only question is... WTH happened to the study they did (journal Nature, IIRC) back in February/March that stated that it was absolutely natural in genetic makeup, which they knew from looking at the structuring of the virus cells?? (i.e. had they been man-made, they would've closely resembled a known coronavirus, with few modifications... and they did not) Was that false? Did they reanalyze and get different findings? Or are we just now bending to conspiracy theory pressure?
My only question is... WTH happened to the study they did (journal Nature, IIRC) back in February/March that stated that it was absolutely natural in genetic makeup, which they knew from looking at the structuring of the virus cells?? (i.e. had they been man-made, they would've closely resembled a known coronavirus, with few modifications... and they did not) Was that false? Did they reanalyze and get different findings? Or are we just now bending to conspiracy theory pressure?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I don't know the answer to that, but I guess I assume that if it was from a lab and this was a "new" virus, that it didn't just get that way by sitting in a lab, without some sort of manual intervention, whether it was cross-testing, or whatever else they might be experimenting with in a lab setting.
I guess that's where the water gets murky, when you go to define what "man-made" means.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Isnt one of the theories that a bat at a wet market took a dump on a pangolin and then somebody bought the pangolin?I don't know the answer to that, but I guess I assume that if it was from a lab and this was a "new" virus, that it didn't just get that way by sitting in a lab, without some sort of manual intervention, whether it was cross-testing, or whatever else they might be experimenting with in a lab setting.
Is that natural? Or man made?
beer 30
Footballguy
Personally I think it was a natural virus that the Chinese "helped". Weaponized isn't the right word but I don't know what that word is so I'm using weaponized but took the virus and made it stronger, harder to defeat in nature, more contagious, etc. Kinda like BASF, "we don't make a lot of the products you buy. We make a lot of the products you buy better."I don't know the answer to that, but I guess I assume that if it was from a lab and this was a "new" virus, that it didn't just get that way by sitting in a lab, without some sort of manual intervention, whether it was cross-testing, or whatever else they might be experimenting with in a lab setting.
I'll go back to my corner and cover up with my tinfoil blanket now.
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