Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
Bernie people are Bernie people. When supporters migrate from elsewhere, whether it's due to white flagging (Yang) or face planting (Biden) they are looking for something they are not familiar with. They opted against that known option before. Either a new one gets their attention or nothing at all.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Trolls want you to come down to their level. That's where they pummel you into submission with experience.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Klobuchar is probably the person I would most like to see get the nomination, but I agree with your analysis. There are too many centrist candidates remaining in the field, and to make things worse, another is about to enter. This race in heading exactly in the wrong direction if that's your policy preference. If they can collectively stop Sanders from getting a majority of the delegates maybe one of the centrists can win a convention fight, but a contested convention is going to be so wild and unprecedented that who knows what happens in that case.
Right now, things are shaping up extremely well for Sanders and Trump.
and so what. None of it translates into more votes.Those people are already voting against him. Dems have to find more votes for their candidate than last time by about 5%.
Agree with Saints that Amy is by far the best to matchup against Trump in a debate. She has the demeanor to handle him, which everyone will respect. And if Trump attacks her or worse, belittles her in any way, that will piss off a lot of women that voted for Trump last time. Amy is rising quickly because she talks 95% about her accomplishments and what she can do for people and 5% about Trump. THE MESSAGE IS ABOUT HER AND IT'S WORKING.
And please watch YOUR words. I didn't vote for Trump last time nor will I this time.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
My first choice is Warren. My second choice is Bernie. I don’t think that’s so unusual.
MAC_32
Footballguy
There will be anecdotal examples that go in every direction. I think the most telling data is what undecided's chose yesterday. Half of New Hampshire hadn't decided as of this time last week and according to exit polls Pete got 28% of them, Amy 23, and Bernie 16. I think all of those numbers make sense. Sure, there will be some from any pool that end up clicking the Bernie button. I don't expect that number to be a large one. If it is then he will win though.
CentralPA
Footballguy
To be fair, 2018 wasn't a presidential election year. I am...assuming voter turn out historically is probably down during congressional elections and not presidential elections?
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
So I looked around a bit. It's tough to get good information without accurate health histories and family histories, and of course there is no real calculator that can calculate the stress of being President, but it looks like Bernie has around 7 years left in a stress free environment, and Trump a bit more, but not much due to his obesity. Frankly I doubt either can handle the stress of the job for 4 years. Seems a legitimate concern to me.
msommer
Footballguy
I think Sanders, like Trump has a base, but unlike last time his appeal is not broader. So, he could come in with 30-40% of the delegates (IMHO closer to 30) and then lose the nomination as the 60-70% not Bernie delegates brokers a deal
toshiba
Footballguy
toshiba
Footballguy
I am a Bernie guy and would love to see him become president. But I do think Klobuchar is probably the biggest lock to win the general if she got the nomination.
MAC_32
Footballguy
toshiba
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It must be unusual, given that only about 10% of NH voters selected Warren first.
NutterButter
Footballguy
Actually, I saw that if the bernie people that switched to trump had just stayed home (not even saying if they voted for clinton), clinton would've taken penn, michigan and wisc, and thus the election, with those states being so close. Not expecting that as much this time with Clinton being so disliked by certain folks, the dnc being exposed as pro-Clinton and the hope at the time that Trump wouldn't actually be as horrible of a person as he was during the campaign.
toshiba
Footballguy
Nipsey
Footballguy
I've tried to understand it but I don't get the Klobuchar love at all, like not at all. What is there to get fired up about? No big ideas, never has taken on anything important. In terms of getting things done in the Senate it's all been low hanging fruit. Voters are going to come out in droves for her? I don't think so.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Very much the same, and she's my Senator. She's the "pearl-clutching white person moderate" candidate, IMO. Not at all the right thing for the country's current moment. I'm afraid she'd get annihilated against Trump, or at best barely squeak by if the anti-Trump surge is real and big enough.
toshiba
Footballguy
It more about people not hating her like they do Trump, Warren, Biden or Sanders (Hillary too). She is electable because she doesn't get out the negative vote for the other side.
Last edited by a moderator:
NutterButter
Footballguy
I really don't think its gonna take some great turnout as long as the dems put forth a moderate candidate with some sensible policies. I know that's not going to excite the youth vote, but I don't think that's who they should be targeting. Its not hard to paint trump's positives as just a continuation of the Obama presidency when you look at the numbers.
caustic
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is "fired up" about her as much as they think she can win in November. That's a dangerous game, but she does have a strong electoral track record at least. In 2012 Obama won Minnesota by 7.69% while Klobuchar won her race by 34.7%.
Nipsey
Footballguy
I just don't think that this angle means anything in terms of winning. Her tepidness, not firing up the electorate would have a far greater impact than not "angering" a certain segment of the electorate (who are seemingly motivated to vote out of personal dislike). And I've always thought the "I voted for this guy because I hate the other guy" was more of a way to disguise embarrassment for voting the way they did.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
She's a well-liked senator who over-performs in a purple state. That's usually a good formula. (Not the senator part, the well-liked-in-her-own-state part).
Bernie definitely has big ideas. They're big ideas that are going to make him unelectable, even against Trump.
joffer
Footballguy
Nipsey
Footballguy
Nipsey
Footballguy
LMAO. People are really going to try and make a thing of this? After that story about some anonymous staffer, 61 of her staffers came out in Klobuchar's support.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
According to NYT....Deval Patrick, officially out.
higgins
Footballguy
@ 6:20 -- polls asking voters' preferences between Bernie / Trump going back to 2015 -- there has only been 1-week in 5-years where Trump has been the preference over Bernie. One week over the past 5-years (October, 2015)!!!!
Last edited by a moderator:
msommer
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Biden and Warren have been in freefall, those votes have to go somewhere and I can see different angles of Kobuchar appeal for people leaving those two bandwagons.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yeah, in fairness "unelectable" is going too far -- any major party nominee starts with enough of a floor that they can potentially pull out a win if things break just right. It would be more accurate to say that Sanders is a significant underdog to Trump and would need more things to break his way than a more conventional candidate would.
Nipsey
Footballguy
Bernie beats Trump in virtually every national poll I've seen and beats him by more than most of the other dem candidates. I realize it's early and national polls mean less these days than battleground state numbers but I don't understand where you're coming from here.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
Gopher State
Footballguy
Sure feels like Bernie is going to get the nomination, not a bad person, but my vote goes
Bloomberg
Trump
being a voter who is 50+ I could never vote for a socialist. A good number of my friends feel the same way. My kids love Sanders, but none of them are even registered to vote, typically under 30 bunch, sad,
Bloomberg
Trump
being a voter who is 50+ I could never vote for a socialist. A good number of my friends feel the same way. My kids love Sanders, but none of them are even registered to vote, typically under 30 bunch, sad,
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I'm looking at betting markets, not polls. Head-to-head polls don't mean anything at this point.
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Nipsey
Footballguy
I'm sure somebody has already said it but the thinking on Bernie being unelectable. having a too limited a ceiling to win reminds of how people thought of Trump in 2016. The left was rooting for Trump to be the nominee the same way you see Trump surrogates pulling for Bernie thinking that facing him in the general would mean a cakewalk to victory. They had is backwards in 2016 and have it backwards now.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Strange reasoning. The oddsshark site is blocked for me here, but I'd imagine those odds have to factor in the possibility that Sanders (or any other D candidate) doesn't even get the nomination. If I put my money down on Sanders there now, do I get it refunded if he doesn't end up being a candidate in the general election?
Nipsey
Footballguy
Betting markets are meaningless, especially future bets . Those lines are based on public perception not some power ranking the book comes up with. Doesn't matter if the wager is being made on politics or sports. Books want bad gamblers taking bad numbers. That number for Trump is the definition of a bad number. Really all of those numbers are bad as you're getting the worst of the number on almost every single betting choice.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Also, Sanders has the best odds of any of the D contenders on that page. So I’m confused.
Nipsey
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
He is coming from common sense and maybe where he lives he has a very good feel of what people are thinking.
For example I live in South Florida and work in wealth management. Not for billionaires....but people who are living the American Dream, have saved their whole life and can retire eventually or are going into retirement. I would say my clients range from incomes of $125,000 - $550,000 annually as well as clients who have built successful business and sold them to retire comfortably.
Simply put mostly generation Y, X and baby boomers. Meet your most interested and active voters in the country.
All of them.....every single one will never vote for Sanders over Trump. Fact. That gives me a very strong indication that he will not have a real chance to defeat him.
Call it a simplistic look at the election....call it foolish....call it whatever you want. But I have a ton of common sense and instincts. I am as successful as I am because of my ability to read people, know what they feel, and want and how to help them get there financially. I also am a great listener. My client base are the mass affluent (500K-10MM to invest) and some ultra high net worth family office clients (Clients with 25MM or more to invest).
They give me a great sense of what successful Americans want. They do not want Sanders. In fact anyone but Sanders or Warren.
And BTW these same people....most voted for Obama in the first election. Most voted for Bill Clinton twice when they were in their 20's and 30's and 40's.
It ain't happening if Sanders is the nominee. No way IMO.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
