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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

Healthcare is a winning issue for Bernie. 
Please defend this statement. We know that the majority of voters in the states that matter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada) are opposed to Medicare for All. We know that this includes most of the unions who historically vote Democrat (including the Culinary Union.) so how is this a winning issue? 

 
In 2020 we have a pretty strong economy. People have food in their bellies. Sure they’ll vote against Trump because a majority don’t like Trump. But will the majority of Americans vote for radical change in this situation? Why should they? 
A little bit of an understatement.    Could you imagine having another year in the market like we just had?   It went up 31%.    People are gonna be like you wanna do what Bernie?

 
What I think you're missing is that the "strong economy" isn't real for a LOT of Americans. I'm lucky. But how many people in their 20's-30's don't have good jobs? Have multiple gig jobs or part time jobs? Work way more than 40 hours per week? Don't have healthcare?
I hope you’re right. But for me the numbers don’t add up. 

 
Completely agree with this.  Bernie is going to scare a lot of people. 
It’s like you guys haven’t been paying attention for 5 years.  Dude was almost the D nominee last time and looks like he will be this time.  He’s consistently one of the most popular politicians out there, out polls Trump consistently and will get to run against the worst President of all time.  Stop being scared and get onboard.

@Nipsey - we need the tractor trailer ascii art in here 

 
What I think you're missing is that the "strong economy" isn't real for a LOT of Americans. I'm lucky. But how many people in their 20's-30's don't have good jobs? Have multiple gig jobs or part time jobs? Work way more than 40 hours per week? Don't have healthcare?
Its real for a lot of americans that actually vote.   Its not real for poor people but poor people don't vote nearly as much as people that aren't poor.

 
Please defend this statement. We know that the majority of voters in the states that matter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada) are opposed to Medicare for All. We know that this includes most of the unions who historically vote Democrat (including the Culinary Union.) so how is this a winning issue? 
Who is against protecting pre-existing conditions?

Republicans want to take that away.  That should scare more people than universal healthcare.

Democrats just have to sell their platform.

 
Please defend this statement. We know that the majority of voters in the states that matter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada) are opposed to Medicare for All. We know that this includes most of the unions who historically vote Democrat (including the Culinary Union.) so how is this a winning issue? 
And what do people think of Trump’s health care plan? When we get to November, majorities with appreciate Bernie’s health care ideas to Trump’s.

 
Its real for a lot of americans that actually vote.   Its not real for poor people but poor people don't vote nearly as much as people that aren't poor.
Maybe, just maybe, a major party candidate with a 30 year history of loudly arguing for worker's and social benefits might change that. Combine that with the large numbers of people who really don't like Trump, and I think you've got an easy winner. 

 
It’s like you guys haven’t been paying attention for 5 years.  Dude was almost the D nominee last time and looks like he will be this time.  He’s consistently one of the most popular politicians out there, out polls Trump consistently and will get to run against the worst President of all time.  Stop being scared and get onboard.

@Nipsey - we need the tractor trailer ascii art in here 
I think popularity sometimes misrepresents whether he's electable.    I love Bernie.  I love his passion.   I think his policies are gonna be his demise.    

 
Buttigieg getting his licks in on Sanders, saying the Vermont senator is too ideologically strident and wants to reorder the country in ways that many Democrats don’t even want. Buttigieg clearly wants to contrast himself as the center-left alternative to Sanders and mentions that he’s the right candidate to help win frontline congressional races and Senate contests.

--538 live blog
That’s going to leave a mark.

 
A little bit of an understatement.    Could you imagine having another year in the market like we just had?   It went up 31%.    People are gonna be like you wanna do what Bernie?
Much of the middle class doesn’t care much about the stock market. They care about rising health care and education and housing costs, relatively stagnant wages, huge student loans and credit card bills.

 
Maybe, just maybe, a major party candidate with a 30 year history of loudly arguing for worker's and social benefits might change that. Combine that with the large numbers of people who really don't like Trump, and I think you've got an easy winner. 
I hope you're all right.    In a weak economy, he'd have a good shot.   But unless something drastic happens, I see it the other way.   I mean its not gonna be any bigger for Trump than it was against Hillary in terms of electoral votes b/c most states are already decided but he'll match what he did last time and more comfortably in the 3 states that the Bernie supporters gave to him in 2016.    

 
Say a union worker makes $37/hour in wages then $20/hour in fringe beneifits.  Fringes healthcare, retirement and vacation.

Say we go universal healthcare.  Does that part of the fringes then become increased wages for a union worker?

 
Say a union worker makes $37/hour in wages then $20/hour in fringe beneifits.  Fringes healthcare, retirement and vacation.

Say we go universal healthcare.  Does that part of the fringes then become increased wages for a union worker?
I'd assume that the union would force a re-negotiation of their bargaining agreement -- and the business wouldn't have that huge healthcare chip their pocket anymore.

 
It's hilarious that the 2016 FFA Hillary fanatics are here lecturing the rest of us on who is and isn't best suited to win in 2020. Are we going to have to listen to 8 more months of this?
There's a bernie thread if you're looking for some peace and quiet. I promise to stay out of there.   

 
Just my feel based on what some of the moderate talking heads that I follow are saying.   He's gonna scare away a lot of those moderates and suburban moms that were the one to deliver the house in 2018.  I put little faith in bernie's base having enough of a turn out to make up for that.   Too many radical ideas that just aren't gonna fly with the majority of the voting electorate.     As long as trump doesn't do anything really stupid between now and November (I know that's asking a lot but he seems to have cooled down and his approval numbers reflect that), he'll be in good shape.
I don't know if his base can do it or not but a moderate democrat has zero chance in this election so we may as well see what happens.

 
It's hilarious that the 2016 FFA Hillary fanatics are here lecturing the rest of us on who is and isn't best suited to win in 2020. Are we going to have to listen to 8 more months of this?
Reminds me of Principle Skinner from the Simpsons - "Am I out of touch? No, it is the children who are wrong". 

(6 second video link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMqZ2PPOLik

 
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I'd assume that the union would force a re-negotiation of their bargaining agreement -- and the business wouldn't have that huge healthcare chip their pocket anymore.
I cant get guys who are making prevailing wages meaning $57/hour Wages to join the union.  They purchase their own healthcare.

 
I'm going to send Warren some cash.  Not because I want her to win but would like her to stick around for a bit more.   Feel like we need to keep siphoning some votes from Bernie even though taking him out is not looking good.

 
Please defend this statement. We know that the majority of voters in the states that matter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada) are opposed to Medicare for All. We know that this includes most of the unions who historically vote Democrat (including the Culinary Union.) so how is this a winning issue? 
Entry polls today were saying 63 (may have been 64) % of voters were in favor of Med-4-All. Not sure about how non-dems fare in that regard.

 
I don't know if his base can do it or not but a moderate democrat has zero chance in this election so we may as well see what happens.
I'm not quite sure why you would say this. Trump's approval rating has been in the low 40s pretty much since the 2016 election. So what makes you think that a non-extreme candidate on the Democratic side couldn't beat him? 

FWIW, Hillary didn't lose because of her policies. It was a very unique situation with an extremely unpopular candidate under FBI investigation who also happened to be a moderate. 

 
I don't know if his base can do it or not but a moderate democrat has zero chance in this election so we may as well see what happens.
Not based on what we saw in 2018.    It was moderates that flipped a lot of those seats.    Its not like you can't make the case that the Trump economy was just a continuation of the obama economy.    Roll back parts of the tax plans that benefit the wealthy.    Emphasize infrastructure to keep the economy rolling especially for blue collar.    Sure up obamacare.    That alone with the distaste that many of the middle have for Trump would be more than enough to give any moderate a good chance.   

 
There's definitely a big concern among many of those people.   There's gonna be a lot of soul searching and there's gonna be a good number of those people that are gonna vote with their wallets b/c they're just really concerned about the affect that what Bernie is proposing is gonna have on a roaring economy.   
The economy isn't roaring for everyone, nor is it roaring everywhere.

 
The difficulty most have imagining his electability right now is that it will depend on getting people who usually don’t vote to come out and vote. 
 

That’s a very dicey proposition. Especially if they’re high.
They'll catch their news on reddit the day after and realize that they missed the election.   

 
Not based on what we saw in 2018.    It was moderates that flipped a lot of those seats.    Its not like you can't make the case that the Trump economy was just a continuation of the obama economy.    Roll back parts of the tax plans that benefit the wealthy.    Emphasize infrastructure to keep the economy rolling especially for blue collar.    Sure up obamacare.    That alone with the distaste that many of the middle have for Trump would be more than enough to give any moderate a good chance.   
No one buys any of that that hasn't already been voting democrat every election anyway.

An incumbent president isn't going to lose during a good economy.  Regardless of how much people try and say it's not great for everyone the reality is that most voters are just going to vote based on the perception that the economy is good.  And that's before we even consider that a lot of the moderate Republicans that couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump last time are willing to vote for him this time around after looking at their 401k's.  Trump is going to get more votes this time than he did last.

There are no shortage of great empirical articles out there about the myth of the moderate middle.  You win elections by firing up your base.  The moderate middle is a red herring.  The non Bernie dems are nice enough candidates to you and I but they're not getting anyone fired up.  They're boring.  They're John Kerry and Bob Dole.  Forgettable.

A large part of Bernie's base is going to stay home if Bernie isn't the nominee and the dems can't win without that base.  I prefer the policies of at least 3 of the democratic nominees to Bernie but none of them can win the general.

 
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No one buys any of that that hasn't already been voting democrat every election anyway.

An incumbent president isn't going to lose during a good economy.  Regardless of how much people try and say it's not great for everyone the reality is that most voters are just going to vote based on the perception that the economy is good.  And that's before we even consider that a lot of the moderate Republicans that couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump last time are willing to vote for him this time around after looking at their 401k's.  Trump is going to get more votes this time than he did last.

There are no shortage of great empirical articles out there about the myth of the moderate middle.  You win elections by firing up your base.  The moderate middle is a red herring.  The non Bernie dems are nice enough candidates to you and I but they're not getting anyone fired up.  They're boring.  They're John Kerry and Bob Dole.  Forgettable.

A large part of Bernie's base is going to stay home if Bernie isn't the nominee and the dems can't win without that base.  I prefer the policies of at least 3 of the democratic nominees to Bernie but none of them can win the general.
Mayo Pete would like to discuss this with you over some tea.

 
No one buys any of that that hasn't already been voting democrat every election anyway.

An incumbent president isn't going to lose during a good economy.  Regardless of how much people try and say it's not great for everyone the reality is that most voters are just going to vote based on the perception that the economy is good.  And that's before we even consider that a lot of the moderate Republicans that couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump last time are willing to vote for him this time around after looking at their 401k's.  Trump is going to get more votes this time than he did last.

There are no shortage of great empirical articles out there about the myth of the moderate middle.  You win elections by firing up your base.  The moderate middle is a red herring.  The non Bernie dems are nice enough candidates to you and I but they're not getting anyone fired up.  They're boring.  They're John Kerry and Bob Dole.  Forgettable.

A large part of Bernie's base is going to stay home if Bernie isn't the nominee and the dems can't win without that base.  I prefer the policies of at least 3 of the democratic nominees to Bernie but none of them can win the general.
We'll just have to disagree.     The distaste for the incumbent is at an abnormally high level among moderates.  If the economy took off during the Trump years I'd say you make a stronger point but some of the Obama years were just as good or better than the Trump years so it wouldn't be hard to make the case that a moderate dem (like obama was) could keep that going.  I agree that if the Bernie followers stay home, a moderate isn't winning but if they can stomach 4 more years of trump and the affect that will have on the courts, that's on their conscience.  I would hope that they would learn their lesson after 2016 but they're young and stubborn so you might be right.   In that case, either way the dems are screwed.

 
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I think popularity sometimes misrepresents whether he's electable.    I love Bernie.  I love his passion.   I think his policies are gonna be his demise.    
Agree with this. Medicare for all, wiping out all student loan debt, $15 minimum wage all sound great in theory, but not realistic. Not to mention he's pushing 80 with a recent heart attack. Trump is going to feast on Bernie with the scary "Socialist" ads. Trump and his minions are licking their chops. 

 
Booming economy is called "headed to the ditch" now?  Wat?  Do we really need to delude ourselves into thinking things that are going good are actually bad because we don't like who is in office?
We're still riding a central banking wave that never really came back down to earth.  No one will want to be anywhere near it when it does.  Something like over half of the US population couldn't afford a $500 emergency.  The bottom 20% of the country, on average, is over $6,000 in debt.  The corona virus could disrupt global supply chains in ways we can't foresee.  Who knows what all this could mean for 2020.  

The economy isn't awesome by any stretch for a large majority people in this country.  That's why centrist posers that don't speak to these issues are getting laughed out of the room.  

 

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