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Government Response To The Coronavirus (8 Viewers)

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We haven't learned anything from the Diamond Princess quarantine apparently, because the US gov't is keeping thousands of people trapped on the Grand Princess.

==

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/cruise-ship-with-thousands-aboard-awaits-test-results-while-coronavirus-continues-spreading-around-the-country/2020/03/05/e32b8786-5f1a-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html

At a hearing on Capitol Hill about the federal response to the novel coronavirus, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) asked why the passengers on the Grand Princess were being held offshore in a closed environment, where the virus could spread.

“We determined, I thought, that it wasn’t a good idea if there was a positive result on a cruise ship to keep everybody on that cruise ship together,” Hassan told acting deputy secretary of homeland security Ken Cuccinelli, who testified at the hearing. “Now we’re hearing that there is a cruise ship off California, and yet we don’t seem to have a protocol to get those folks off the ship, into quarantine in a way that would minimize the spread of infection.”

Cuccinelli defended the decision, saying there is not enough capacity on land to quarantine large numbers of passengers.

Cuccinelli said that if the Diamond Princess quarantine had been implemented better, the virus would not have spread as widely as it did on the ship. “That was not a successful quarantine situation,” he said. (I hope he is going to own this decision and everything that comes from it then)

Authorities were able to take four people suspected of having the coronavirus off a cruise ship near the coast of New Jersey last month “because it was four people,” Cuccinelli said. “If you start putting zeros on that number [of people] with heavy suspicion they’re positive, you could overwhelm local health-care capacity.”

==

So rather than bring these people into a place that could have proper quarantine protocol, our gov't is going to keep them on a ship with basically NO health-care capacity and hope that it doesn't spread.

 
Given that this is the protocol, who in their right mind would get on a cruise ship knowing you could be stuck in a closet of a room for 2+ weeks with food being delivered to you by someone who probably has CV19?

 
You want to talk about economic impact, cruise lines are DEAD if the US gov't is going to make any ship with 1 case onboard a floating jail.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
My understanding is that the idea behind banning large gatherings, cancelling international travel, etc. isn't to stop the spread of the disease.  That's not going to happen and was never a realistic goal.  The idea is to slow down the spread of the disease so that everybody doesn't get sick at once.  If we can spread out the number of cases over time, it puts less strain on hospitals and doesn't blow up our health care apparatus.

In other words, if you graph infections on the y-axis and time on the x-axis, you would strongly prefer a long, flat curve over a brief, spiky curve.  That's what these bans on large gatherings are supposed to accomplish.
Click to expand...
Sort of.  You're kind of assuming everyone is going to get sick.  People who stay home often don't get sick and that slows down and eventually stops the spreading.  Or at least limits it, until there is a vaccine.

 
joffer said:
whew....glad that's over.
Click to expand...
Here we go again.

Before I even clicked the link I thought, what he likely said and what a reasonable person would hear was that we stopped new cases coming in from China.

I also thought there would be people in here that would say something childish and irresponsible like "Trump said the virus is over!".  Even though after I clicked the link, used my reading skills and saw that he said these things that directly contradict that: "We have very low confirmed cases", "We're going to see if they (CDC) can turn it around",  "Be calm, it will go away".

I was right twice.

 
Very off topic, but how can the guess for the number of flu deaths so far this season be so big? I mean between 20k-52k is a pretty big range. We are talking deaths here. How is it not a bit more specific? 

And those people that died, what was the cause of death listed as then? Just "natural causes" ?

Obviously i understand the estimating for cases since so many people go untreated for it, especially minor cases. 

I can even understand for people in nursing homes at age 85 not getting a bunch of tests done so there is some ambiguity there.

But if a 40 year old dies do we really not know for certain if it was the flu? 

 
KPD said:
Given that this is the protocol, who in their right mind would get on a cruise ship knowing you could be stuck in a closet of a room for 2+ weeks with food being delivered to you by someone who probably has CV19?
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Ah, college. 

 
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tonydead said:
Sort of.  You're kind of assuming everyone is going to get sick.  People who stay home often don't get sick and that slows down and eventually stops the spreading.  Or at least limits it, until there is a vaccine.
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Everything I read says that we’re a least 18 months away from a vaccine being ready for mass distribution, and that’s at the very earliest. 

It seems to me that it’s untenable to shut off all large gatherings of people for 18 months. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
And in Tony's defense, I think Trump gets briefed on 'here's what the mortality rate means' by experts, then - Step 2: Trump's Brain - then we get the jello we heard on Hannity.
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Thanks, I guess.

If speaking clearly with well understood sentences is a requirement of yours for president it looks like you're going to be voting third party in November.

 
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For the people that mention that the virus will diminish during the summer, that's only helpful here right?  I mean, there are lots of cases in the Southern Hemisphere, won't things just get worse in that half of the world?  And unless we're planning to build a giant wall on the equator, won't the problems in the Southern Hemisphere cause more problems in the Northern hemisphere? 

 
timschochet said:
Everything I read says that we’re a least 18 months away from a vaccine being ready for mass distribution, and that’s at the very earliest. 

It seems to me that it’s untenable to shut off all large gatherings of people for 18 months. 
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Will the people that recover from this need the vaccine?

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
For the people that mention that the virus will diminish during the summer, that's only helpful here right?  I mean, there are lots of cases in the Southern Hemisphere, won't things just get worse in that half of the world?  And unless we're planning to build a giant wall on the equator, won't the problems in the Southern Hemisphere cause more problems in the Northern hemisphere? 
Click to expand...
We don’t need the virus to diminish right now. We need it to spread. I wrote this in the other thread and I am dead serious. 

Many many more people need to get the virus and they need to recover from the virus. That will be the only way to determine what the actual mortality and recovery rates are. I personally suspect they are much lower (and higher) than suspected. Once that happens everyone calms down, no more quarantines or cancellation of large gatherings and the economy recovers. 

 
Godsbrother said:
Will the people that recover from this need the vaccine?
Click to expand...
That is a great question and to the best of my knowledge nobody has answered. But my bet is yes. I think this is more like the flu than chicken pox. You need to have a flu shot every year and of course you can get the flu over and over. 

 
timschochet said:
Yes except conservatives could make the argument that we can cut the budgets and people involved in these programs and then, when an emergency arises, we can simply allocate funds as needed, and there will be no loss in effectiveness but a savings in overall cost. 

Im not saying this is a good argument but they can certainly offer it.  
Click to expand...
To be clear, that was Trump's argument. I honestly don't think another Republican (or Democratic) president would have eliminated the NSC pandemic threat director and staff. That's a negligible line item on the budget. That just indicates a thorough ignorance of national security. On the same topic look at who is running DHS - do you know who it is? Why he's Acting, and not only is he Acting Secretary, he's also the Acting Deputy Secretary. - There are probably comps to the situation with Brown at Fema but at least Brown was confirmed. Wolf was clueless that pandemic threat response was even in his portfolio, he had no idea what was going on. That's the problem and frankly I think it starts with the top.

And I'm happy to move past this, it's just this whole 'hoax' pushback effort that makes this discussion necessary.

 
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timschochet said:
That is a great question and to the best of my knowledge nobody has answered. But my bet is yes. I think this is more like the flu than chicken pox. You need to have a flu shot every year and of course you can get the flu over and over. 
Click to expand...
My understanding is that once you've had the virus and recovered you generally can't get it again.  Maybe someone here with more expertise can clarify.

ETA:  DON'T LISTEN TO ME!  THIS APPEARS TO BE WRONG.

 
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fatguyinalittlecoat said:
My understanding is that once you've had the virus and recovered you generally can't get it again.  Maybe someone here with more expertise can clarify.
Click to expand...
This is from an article I posted earlier:

“Everyone, by the time they reach adulthood, should have some immunity to some coronavirus,” said Tim Sheahan, a coronavirus researcher at University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. But because it doesn’t last, older people can get reinfected. The elderly also have a higher death rate from coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, a pattern 2019-nCoV is following.

“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. “Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
timschochet said:
That is a great question and to the best of my knowledge nobody has answered. But my bet is yes. I think this is more like the flu than chicken pox. You need to have a flu shot every year and of course you can get the flu over and over. 
Click to expand...
My understanding is that once you've had the virus and recovered you generally can't get it again.  Maybe someone here with more expertise can clarify.
Click to expand...
I get that we are in an time of chaos and information is more than we can consume correctly and responsibly, but I thought I had read of several instances where people were getting it a second time  :oldunsure:  

 
Sinn Fein said:
This is from an article I posted earlier:

“Everyone, by the time they reach adulthood, should have some immunity to some coronavirus,” said Tim Sheahan, a coronavirus researcher at University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. But because it doesn’t last, older people can get reinfected. The elderly also have a higher death rate from coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, a pattern 2019-nCoV is following.

“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. “Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.
Click to expand...


The Commish said:
I get that we are in an time of chaos and information is more than we can consume correctly and responsibly, but I thought I had read of several instances where people were getting it a second time  :oldunsure:  
Click to expand...
Thanks, looks like I was wrong, I edited above so nobody is misled.

 
timschochet said:
That is a great question and to the best of my knowledge nobody has answered. But my bet is yes. I think this is more like the flu than chicken pox. You need to have a flu shot every year and of course you can get the flu over and over. 
Click to expand...
I would think not.  This is a single strain of Coronavirus, the same as SARS was.  

The flu tends to change year to year.  We're seeing a Coronavirus epidemic every 5-10 years.  

And we don't know what it's going to be.  So vaccinating against COVID 19 won't protect against COVID 24.  

And it seems like by the time we could manufacture a vaccine, the epidemic dies down.  

 
tonydead said:
Here we go again.

Before I even clicked the link I thought, what he likely said and what a reasonable person would hear was that we stopped new cases coming in from China.

I also thought there would be people in here that would say something childish and irresponsible like "Trump said the virus is over!".  Even though after I clicked the link, used my reading skills and saw that he said these things that directly contradict that: "We have very low confirmed cases", "We're going to see if they (CDC) can turn it around",  "Be calm, it will go away".

I was right twice.
Click to expand...
Earlier this week he said we have 15 cases and that’s likely to go down. 

 
jm192 said:
I would think not.  This is a single strain of Coronavirus, the same as SARS was.  

The flu tends to change year to year.  We're seeing a Coronavirus epidemic every 5-10 years.  

And we don't know what it's going to be.  So vaccinating against COVID 19 won't protect against COVID 24.  

And it seems like by the time we could manufacture a vaccine, the epidemic dies down.  
Click to expand...
There are likely 2 strains already identified.  So mutation is probable and may happen again.

The research was done by experts at Peking University in Beijing, Shanghai University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

In their study of genes in 103 samples of the coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2 and causes a disease called COVID-19, they revealed they had discovered two distinct versions of it, which they named L and S.

They claimed that around 70 per cent of patients have caught the L strain, which is more aggressive and faster-spreading than S.

 
timschochet said:
We don’t need the virus to diminish right now. We need it to spread. I wrote this in the other thread and I am dead serious. 

Many many more people need to get the virus and they need to recover from the virus. That will be the only way to determine what the actual mortality and recovery rates are. I personally suspect they are much lower (and higher) than suspected. Once that happens everyone calms down, no more quarantines or cancellation of large gatherings and the economy recovers. 
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I couldn't disagree with anything you have ever said on these forums more.  This is honestly worse than any comments specifically requesting that Trump gets it because the faster this spreads the more people will have serious complications and the more people will die.

==

From doctors in Italy battling this in real life:

https://www.esicm.org/covid-19-update-from-our-colleagues-in-northern-italy/

Dear friends,

At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak.

We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.
The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission.
We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients.

We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!

We also want to share with you some key points from our experience:

Get ready now – with your ICU’s networks – to define your contingency plan in the event of an outbreak in your community

Don’t work “in silo”. Coordinate with your hospital management and other healthcare professionals to prepare your response

Make sure your hospital management and procurement office have a protocol in place about which personal protection equipment (PPE) to stock and re-stock

Make sure your staff is trained in donning and doffing procedures

Use education, training and simulation as much as possible

Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way

Increase your total ICU capacity

Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort COVID-19 + patients – in every hospital if necessary

Put in place a triage protocol to identify suspected cases, test them and direct them to the right cohort

Make sure you set clear goals for care with the patients and their families early on

With our best regards

Prof. Maurizio CecconiProf. Antonio PesentiProf. Giacomo Grasselli

President elect, ESICMUniversity of MilanUniversity of Milan

Humanitas University, Milan

 
timschochet said:
We don’t need the virus to diminish right now. We need it to spread. I wrote this in the other thread and I am dead serious. 

Many many more people need to get the virus and they need to recover from the virus. That will be the only way to determine what the actual mortality and recovery rates are. I personally suspect they are much lower (and higher) than suspected. Once that happens everyone calms down, no more quarantines or cancellation of large gatherings and the economy recovers. 
Click to expand...
:mellow:

Geebus Tim, that is a horrible take. A faster spread may cost more lives as the heath system is overloaded not having enough hospital beds and ventilators, compared a slower transmission that the CDC and the government might better get a handle on.

As the old expression goes...Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.

 
squistion said:
:mellow:

Geebus Tim, that is a horrible take. A faster spread may cost more lives as the heath system is overloaded not having enough hospital beds and ventilators, compared a slower transmission that the CDC and the government might better get a handle on.

As the old expression goes...Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm totally cool with being patient on more accurate data here.

 
Here we go again.  I've given up on the people in here.  I've given them too much credit.  They must just read their twitter and believe whatever talking point pops up without any intelect function happening.

"and those people are getting better, or we think that in almost all cases they’re better, or getting.  We have a total of 15. "

"Of the 15 people — the “original 15,” as I call them — 8 of them have returned to their homes, to stay in their homes until fully recovered."

"but we have a total of 15 people, and they’re in a process of recovering, with some already having fully recovered."

"And, so far, if you look at what we have with the 15 people and their recovery, one is — one is pretty sick but hopefully will recover, but the others are in great shape."

Then he goes on to put Mike Pence in charge.  Why the hell would he need to even appoint Mike if he thought or was saying our cases are going down on their own?  Good Grief people.

 
Sneegor said:
I believe he is trying to present the optimistic side of things as too many folks are predicting armageddon.  The panic is causing the bond and stock market to do stupid things right now.  
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As President of the United States, being optimistic to the public is not the right thing to do when you don't know the severity of an issue that has already seen deadly results. He either needs to just say the facts or leave all the talking to Pence + CDC. His 'optimistic' thoughts on coronavirus is only going to make the virus spread more as some people won't take it seriously. Some of his supporters have already come out and said that they don't think the coronavirus is real. 

As far as the stock market goes, I have a good amount of money in there and am not happy with the markets crashing but people who are more concerned about that over lives being lost need to take a hard look in the mirror.

 
squistion said:
:mellow:

Geebus Tim, that is a horrible take. A faster spread may cost more lives as the heath system is overloaded not having enough hospital beds and ventilators, compared a slower transmission that the CDC and the government might better get a handle on.

As the old expression goes...Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.
Click to expand...
Man, I didn't think it possible, but I agree with you.

 
Sneegor said:
this is not true.  Do you have a link?
Click to expand...
Referencing the 15 known cases detected in the U.S. at the time of the press conference — a tally that does not include an additional 45 repatriation cases — Trump said, “the 15, within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
 

I see it’s been linked above

 
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The more this moves on the more it does seem again that Trump's incompetence is going to be crippling for the response.  

This is Trumps Hurricane Katrina

 
killface said:
The more this moves on the more it does seem again that Trump's incompetence is going to be crippling for the response.  

This is Trumps Hurricane Katrina
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It's really too bad that Hurricane Maria isn't already considered Trump's Katrina.

Puerto Rico's official tally killed in the hurricane is 2,975.

 
tonydead said:
Here we go again.  I've given up on the people in here.  I've given them too much credit.  They must just read their twitter and believe whatever talking point pops up without any intelect function happening.

"and those people are getting better, or we think that in almost all cases they’re better, or getting.  We have a total of 15. "

"Of the 15 people — the “original 15,” as I call them — 8 of them have returned to their homes, to stay in their homes until fully recovered."

"but we have a total of 15 people, and they’re in a process of recovering, with some already having fully recovered."

"And, so far, if you look at what we have with the 15 people and their recovery, one is — one is pretty sick but hopefully will recover, but the others are in great shape."

Then he goes on to put Mike Pence in charge.  Why the hell would he need to even appoint Mike if he thought or was saying our cases are going down on their own?  Good Grief people.
Click to expand...
How much word salad is in between those quotes? Sorry if I got the impression that “we have 15 cases and will be down to zero, we’ve done a pretty good job” meant that they had done a good job and the virus wasn’t spreading, because that’s what he says. But again, you are also arguing that the mortality rate is way off because of the unreported cases, perhaps thousands of them (he says this too this week.) So which is it? Good job, or it’s spreading and we don’t even know how many people have it?

 
Snorkelson said:
How much word salad is in between those quotes? Sorry if I got the impression that “we have 15 cases and will be down to zero, we’ve done a pretty good job” meant that they had done a good job and the virus wasn’t spreading, because that’s what he says. But again, you are also arguing that the mortality rate is way off because of the unreported cases, perhaps thousands of them (he says this too this week.) So which is it? Good job, or it’s spreading and we don’t even know how many people have it?
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I love this so much because he constantly talks out of both ends and his supporters don't even see it.  

 
Since we are on the topic of government response combined with Trump's clarity of communication....

Regarding Hurricane Maria:

After the official death toll was updated to the estimated 2,975 on August 28, 2018, President Donald Trump stated that he still believed the federal government did a "fantastic job" in its hurricane response and less than a month later Trump described the federal response to Hurricane Maria as "an incredible, unsung success ... the best job we did was Puerto Rico [compared to hurricanes in Texas and Florida] but nobody would understand that"

==

So yeah, no matter how bad anything is going, Trump is going to say that his administration is the best ever and everything is handled.

 
Snorkelson said:
How much word salad is in between those quotes? Sorry if I got the impression that “we have 15 cases and will be down to zero, we’ve done a pretty good job” meant that they had done a good job and the virus wasn’t spreading, because that’s what he says. But again, you are also arguing that the mortality rate is way off because of the unreported cases, perhaps thousands of them (he says this too this week.) So which is it? Good job, or it’s spreading and we don’t even know how many people have it?
Click to expand...
You haven't read it?  That explains a lot. ;)  See what I did with your words there?  That particular quote came at the end of an answer to a question in the Q&A about traveling in the summer.  It's entire quoted sentence is:

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.
Click to expand...
"And again" refers to what he's previously said about these 15 people, that requires you to go get some context if you weren't reading/listening to the entire exchange.  But, yes, I see now if that was the only thing you heard or read from the speech you could easily misinterpret it (or purposely misconstrue it).  I agree it takes some work sometimes to figure out what he's trying to say.

It is spreading and we do not know how many people have it.  We are behind on the testing right this second.  I think it was a good response to shut down travel to China.  It seemed like a delayed response getting to Washington to me, but if they do what they said last night, and 4-5 million test kits are available over the next week and a half.  It sounds like a good plan to me and that dork Jay Inslee agreed. 

 
Bucsfan5493 said:
That isn't clear at all and at the very least is downplaying the number of expected cases.

Can we at least agree that Trump has attempted to downplay the virus multiple times of the past week?
Click to expand...
From the same link

Seems pretty dang clear

Of the 15 people — the “original 15,” as I call them — 8 of them have returned to their homes, to stay in their homes until fully recovered.  One is in the hospital and five have fully recovered.  And one is, we think, in pretty good shape and it’s in between hospital and going home.

So we have a total of — but we have a total of 15 people, and they’re in a process of recovering, with some already having fully recovered.

 
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