What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Coronavirus impact on election (1 Viewer)

AAABatteries

AAABatteries

Footballguy
I didn’t want to put this in the main thread for obvious reasons and didn’t want to hijack from the government response thread either.

At what point do we think that the virus will impact the election?  Will folks be dissuaded in the upcoming weeks to skip the primaries?  Who does that help?

If things really go south and the impact remains mostly with the elderly does that change Trump’s re-election bid?

Chances one of the 4 main candidates left contracts the virus?

 
No impact unless it gets really bad.  
 

If we are at the point NFL and MLB games are postponed or played in empty stadiums, then they may have to take drastic measures.  Most states have enough time to prepare for full or a majority of absentee voting?  

 
knowledge dropper said:
No impact unless it gets really bad.  
 

If we are at the point NFL and MLB games are postponed or played in empty stadiums, then they may have to take drastic measures.  Most states have enough time to prepare for full or a majority of absentee voting?  
Click to expand...
How many people wouldn’t vote absentee though?  Does that favor one side or the other?

The DNC caucuses in Iowa and Nevada don’t give me the warm fuzzies that we would get a majority of absentee ballots correct.  I understand caucuses are vastly different - it’s just the incompetence of people running these things seems high.

What is the rule on absentee votes for someone who passes before the election?  I’m assuming the vote counts.

 
AAABatteries said:
How many people wouldn’t vote absentee though?  Does that favor one side or the other?

The DNC caucuses in Iowa and Nevada don’t give me the warm fuzzies that we would get a majority of absentee ballots correct.  I understand caucuses are vastly different - it’s just the incompetence of people running these things seems high.

What is the rule on absentee votes for someone who passes before the election?  I’m assuming the vote counts.
Click to expand...
FWIW.  Some states are already preparing behind the scenes for an election with public polling places being problematic.  This is obviously in the early stages and feasibility is part of the equation. 
 

Death of a candidate close to the election is hopefully not going to happen and that may be your constitutional crisis. 

How these candidates handle rallies and public events will be a big story going forward.  No kissing babies this election.  

 
Depressed voter turnout would benefit the GOP.  This might have an impact from a turnout perspective, it SHOULD have an impact from a policy perspective.

 
Long term, it might cause some people to view our healthcare system a little differently, as it relates to reliance on private vs public control. Certainly, the private sector is better at delivering products and services in most industries. Broad based public health may be an exception to that rule. 
 

 
The Commish said:
Depressed voter turnout would benefit the GOP.  This might have an impact from a turnout perspective, it SHOULD have an impact from a policy perspective.
Click to expand...
Even if that depression is mostly old people?  I know we have a long ways to go until we have good numbers about the virus and the election is a long way off but if the mortality rate for 60+ is 20x or 30x what it is for young people will that change people’s mind?

What policy do you have in mind that you think should have an impact - so you mean  how we handle infectious diseases?

 
Way too early to say.  

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely that anything Trump does or says will have any significant impact on the Covid-19 outbreak.  But obviously the political fallout will be different.  I've argued elsewhere that in the alternate universe where Trump is competent, he would have an easy time using this outbreak to his advantage -- this sort of thing plays directly into people's xenophobia and supports a narrative involving a strong leader invoking dramatic powers to keep the nation safe.  Trump is probably too inept to take advantage, but a serious viral outbreak is exactly the kind of black swan event that would lock up his reelection. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Way too early to say.  

Personally, I think it's highly unlikely that anything Trump does or says will have any significant impact on the Covid-19 outbreak.  But obviously the political fallout will be different.  I've argued elsewhere that in the alternate universe where Trump is competent, he would have an easy time using this outbreak to his advantage -- this sort of thing plays directly into people's xenophobia and supports a narrative involving a strong leader invoking dramatic powers to keep the nation safe.  Trump is probably too inept to take advantage, but a serious viral outbreak is exactly the kind of black swan event that would lock up his reelection. 
Click to expand...
Some superpac is going to be running ads about Trump continuing to try to slash the CDC budget. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Even if that depression is mostly old people?  I know we have a long ways to go until we have good numbers about the virus and the election is a long way off but if the mortality rate for 60+ is 20x or 30x what it is for young people will that change people’s mind?

What policy do you have in mind that you think should have an impact - so you mean  how we handle infectious diseases?
Click to expand...
Probably not if it's "mostly old people", but that's not typical.  "Old people" are typically reliable voters.  If turnout is down its usually because middle aged and young people didn't show up to vote.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
He was asking the pharmaceutical people yesterday if they could just use the regular flu vaccine against Coronavirus. Think about that for a minute. We are 4-6 weeks into the deal. He has the best health experts in the world available to him. He has no fundamental understanding of the vaccine science or process. THAT'S LITERALLY HIS JOB!. 

Not only does this atrocious lack of knowledge make him less able to make proactive decisions. It hurts his ability to recognize and avoid bad advice. Now extrapolate that across the myriad of issues he has to deal with. 

For the life of me I still am gobsmacked this guy is in office. He is so manifestly unqualified its ridiculous. I could pick a random name out of the phonebook that would be better.     

 
Jackstraw said:
He was asking the pharmaceutical people yesterday if they could just use the regular flu vaccine against Coronavirus. Think about that for a minute. We are 4-6 weeks into the deal. He has the best health experts in the world available to him. He has no fundamental understanding of the vaccine science or process. THAT'S LITERALLY HIS JOB!. 

Not only does this atrocious lack of knowledge make him less able to make proactive decisions. It hurts his ability to recognize and avoid bad advice. Now extrapolate that across the myriad of issues he has to deal with. 

For the life of me I still am gobsmacked this guy is in office. He is so manifestly unqualified its ridiculous. I could pick a random name out of the phonebook that would be better.     
Click to expand...
He later said he told them to accelerate the vaccine process. Execs furiously scribble in notepad. NICE JOB MR PRESIDENT! I'm sure that never occurred tot them. :standing ovation: 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It may, in a weird way, benefit the dems.

Older people skew republican and deaths and sever illness with this virus strongly skews older people

Virus also skews to unhealthy people with preconditions and that pretty much sums up the bible belt

 
Jackstraw said:
He was asking the pharmaceutical people yesterday if they could just use the regular flu vaccine against Coronavirus. Think about that for a minute. We are 4-6 weeks into the deal. He has the best health experts in the world available to him. He has no fundamental understanding of the vaccine science or process. THAT'S LITERALLY HIS JOB!. 
Click to expand...
I could not possibly disagree with this more.  There's no reason why the president should have any special expertise on the subject of epidemiology.  The president's job is not to lead the effort to contain a viral outbreak.  His job is to get out of the way and let the people who know what they're doing do their jobs.  

If the president does nothing but empty grandstanding, that would be great.  Any direct meddling figures to be for the worse.

 
The nation would rally around a president who hired the best people to combat this problem, put them front and center to detail what was happening and used the power of his office as a vehicle for promoting unity and calm. But that ship has sailed; over half the electorate has no confidence in Trump's ability to do anything remotely like this.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
IvanKaramazov said:
I could not possibly disagree with this more.  There's no reason why the president should have any special expertise on the subject of epidemiology.  The president's job is not to lead the effort to contain a viral outbreak.  His job is to get out of the way and let the people who know what they're doing do their jobs.  

If the president does nothing but empty grandstanding, that would be great.  Any direct meddling figures to be for the worse.
Click to expand...
So he shouldn't, you know, occasionally look into a briefing book? I mean that is so fundamental. Decisions at the Presidential level are the tough ones. You should have some nuance of the issues. 

So I couldn't disagree more with your disgareement. You don't just to get there like a dazed baboon and poop out decisions. Or at least you shouldn't. Any Tom **** or Stephen Miller can jerk you around with a few artful sentences. Imagine how much he's being manipulated. 

 
Jackstraw said:
So he shouldn't, you know, occasionally look into a briefing book? I mean that is so fundamental. Decisions at the Presidential level are the tough ones. You should have some nuance of the issues. 

So I couldn't disagree more with your disgareement. You don't just to get there like a dazed baboon and poop out decisions. Or at least you shouldn't. Any Tom **** or Stephen Miller can jerk you around with a few artful sentences. Imagine how much he's being manipulated. 
Click to expand...
I kind of agree with both of you...he shouldn't be an expert but should surround himself with experts and defer when he needs too.  That being said Trump is a selfish egotistical maniac that can't keep his mouth shut.  So he opens himself to these criticisms...it was a week ago he was on tv saying nobody should worry that this is all just going to disappear

 
killface said:
I kind of agree with both of you...he shouldn't be an expert but should surround himself with experts and defer when he needs too.  That being said Trump is a selfish egotistical maniac that can't keep his mouth shut.  So he opens himself to these criticisms...it was a week ago he was on tv saying nobody should worry that this is all just going to disappear
Click to expand...
Yeah, for the record, I fully expect Trump to make things worse the more he gets directly involved.  That's pretty much his MO when it comes to basically anything.

 
He’s already had his angle and is golden unless things get really bad. It’s the Dems fault for open borders. 

 
I fully expect the governments response to COVID19 to be the election defining topic of 2020.  If the government handles it well, Trump is re-elected.  Hell, I'd probably even vote for him in that case.  If the federal gov't is percieved to have bungled it, the democrats cruise to an easy victory.

Trump owns this.  He is the man who pushed to cut funding to CDC.  He is the man who doesn't want us to work internationally on almost anything.  He has already taken credit for stopping the virus (one day before it was announced to be community spreading here).  He is the man who appointed Mike Pence to be the Corona czar.

If this goes poorly, and we end up seeing thousands of citizens die with breakdowns in protocol (i.e. failure to quarantine, not test enough people, failure to react, etc), there is no way Trump can be re-elected.  If it goes poorly, this will be much worse than Katrina, and Trumps fingerprints are all over it.

If this goes well, the virus is contained, and it dies down over the summer, Trump will be able to claim that it was due to his steady hand at the wheel, and he can be trusted in an emergency.

I hope this goes well for us.  I hope this works out well for US.  I hope this works well for Trump.  But, I'm doubtful.

 
moleculo said:
I fully expect the governments response to COVID19 to be the election defining topic of 2020.  If the government handles it well, Trump is re-elected.  Hell, I'd probably even vote for him in that case.  If the federal gov't is percieved to have bungled it, the democrats cruise to an easy victory.

Trump owns this.  He is the man who pushed to cut funding to CDC.  He is the man who doesn't want us to work internationally on almost anything.  He has already taken credit for stopping the virus (one day before it was announced to be community spreading here).  He is the man who appointed Mike Pence to be the Corona czar.

If this goes poorly, and we end up seeing thousands of citizens die with breakdowns in protocol (i.e. failure to quarantine, not test enough people, failure to react, etc), there is no way Trump can be re-elected.  If it goes poorly, this will be much worse than Katrina, and Trumps fingerprints are all over it.

If this goes well, the virus is contained, and it dies down over the summer, Trump will be able to claim that it was due to his steady hand at the wheel, and he can be trusted in an emergency.

I hope this goes well for us.  I hope this works out well for US.  I hope this works well for Trump.  But, I'm doubtful.
Click to expand...
I think you're probably correct. 

I don't think it's an issue of affecting voter turnout.  I think this is simply what becomes THE issue.  

 
moleculo said:
I fully expect the governments response to COVID19 to be the election defining topic of 2020.  If the government handles it well, Trump is re-elected.  Hell, I'd probably even vote for him in that case.  If the federal gov't is percieved to have bungled it, the democrats cruise to an easy victory.

Trump owns this.  He is the man who pushed to cut funding to CDC.  He is the man who doesn't want us to work internationally on almost anything.  He has already taken credit for stopping the virus (one day before it was announced to be community spreading here).  He is the man who appointed Mike Pence to be the Corona czar.

If this goes poorly, and we end up seeing thousands of citizens die with breakdowns in protocol (i.e. failure to quarantine, not test enough people, failure to react, etc), there is no way Trump can be re-elected.  If it goes poorly, this will be much worse than Katrina, and Trumps fingerprints are all over it.

If this goes well, the virus is contained, and it dies down over the summer, Trump will be able to claim that it was due to his steady hand at the wheel, and he can be trusted in an emergency.

I hope this goes well for us.  I hope this works out well for US.  I hope this works well for Trump.  But, I'm doubtful.
Click to expand...
But at the same time he will continue to be out there blaming everyone but himself.  As always.

 
Jackstraw said:
He was asking the pharmaceutical people yesterday if they could just use the regular flu vaccine against Coronavirus. Think about that for a minute. We are 4-6 weeks into the deal. He has the best health experts in the world available to him. He has no fundamental understanding of the vaccine science or process. THAT'S LITERALLY HIS JOB!. 

Not only does this atrocious lack of knowledge make him less able to make proactive decisions. It hurts his ability to recognize and avoid bad advice. Now extrapolate that across the myriad of issues he has to deal with. 

For the life of me I still am gobsmacked this guy is in office. He is so manifestly unqualified its ridiculous. I could pick a random name out of the phonebook that would be better.     
Click to expand...
Actually, that's not his job.  That's the job of the experts that already have the job.  I'm not sure where you get this idea that it's his job.  His job is to guide and lead, not be the expert on how viruses, vaccines and everything else ACTUALLY work.

Now if you want to talk about his leadership, then that's fine.  But it's literally not his job to be the expert.

If, by this time, you STILL can't believe why he's in office then I don't know how to help you.  One of the reasons was that he was the lesser of two evil choices.  The other reason you could glean just be reading most of the posts in PSF.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jackstraw said:
He was asking the pharmaceutical people yesterday if they could just use the regular flu vaccine against Coronavirus. Think about that for a minute. We are 4-6 weeks into the deal. He has the best health experts in the world available to him. He has no fundamental understanding of the vaccine science or process. THAT'S LITERALLY HIS JOB!. 

Not only does this atrocious lack of knowledge make him less able to make proactive decisions. It hurts his ability to recognize and avoid bad advice. Now extrapolate that across the myriad of issues he has to deal with. 

For the life of me I still am gobsmacked this guy is in office. He is so manifestly unqualified its ridiculous. I could pick a random name out of the phonebook that would be better.     
Click to expand...
Just so we're clear:  do you think that Obama was an expert in vaccine process or science?  Or Clinton?  Or Bush.

I'm a doctor, and I've got some knowledge, but hardly consider myself an expert.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
moleculo said:
I fully expect the governments response to COVID19 to be the election defining topic of 2020.  If the government handles it well, Trump is re-elected.  Hell, I'd probably even vote for him in that case.  If the federal gov't is percieved to have bungled it, the democrats cruise to an easy victory.

Trump owns this.  He is the man who pushed to cut funding to CDC.  He is the man who doesn't want us to work internationally on almost anything.  He has already taken credit for stopping the virus (one day before it was announced to be community spreading here).  He is the man who appointed Mike Pence to be the Corona czar.

If this goes poorly, and we end up seeing thousands of citizens die with breakdowns in protocol (i.e. failure to quarantine, not test enough people, failure to react, etc), there is no way Trump can be re-elected.  If it goes poorly, this will be much worse than Katrina, and Trumps fingerprints are all over it.

If this goes well, the virus is contained, and it dies down over the summer, Trump will be able to claim that it was due to his steady hand at the wheel, and he can be trusted in an emergency.

I hope this goes well for us.  I hope this works out well for US.  I hope this works well for Trump.  But, I'm doubtful.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind that the outbreak is likely to peter out over the summer even if Trump aggressively mishandles it.  

 
joffer said:
i think if he was told a vaccine is 12-18 months away and was different than the one for the flu, Obama could remember those facts the next day.
Click to expand...
But, going back to the @Jackstraw OP, that STILL would have not made Obama an expert like the OP is insisting Trump must be.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
@Leroy Hoard your laughter highlights the point.

If we look up in a year, and this went well, you won't give credit to Trump.  

But if we look up in a year and it's a disaster, you'll give Trump the credit.

 
I don't think worry about the virus itself it will be a significant factor by the general election day, it should have gone through by then. It will only matter if it has the same mortality in China and it is wide spread. The previously reported numbers have it severely biased against older people, ~15% mortality 80+, 8% for 70-79 etc. That would obviously be fairly bad for Trump from a voting perspective, seeing as how older people are pretty skewed towards voting Republican. Then again, it could also effect any of the candidates themselves seeing how they are all old for a secondary affect. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jackstraw said:
Pffft. Obama did his homework. He had command of the material. Like unbelievably so. I’m not sure what President you were watching. 
Click to expand...
Again, while he MAY have had "command", that still didn't make him an "expert" like you're expecting Trump to be.

The fact that Trump doesn't lie as eloquently and pretty as Obama did is irrelevant.

 
BladeRunner said:
Again, while he MAY have had "command", that still didn't make him an "expert" like you're expecting Trump to be.

The fact that Trump doesn't lie as eloquently and pretty as Obama did is irrelevant.
Click to expand...
Obama didn't have to be an expert in science. He just had to be smart enough to hire people who were and keep the CDC funded. Really not that difficult.

 
JamieMurphy said:
Obama didn't have to be an expert in science. He just had to be smart enough to hire people who were and keep the CDC funded. Really not that difficult.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Trump is doing the same.  He just can't talk as pretty as Obama did.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
To get this back on topic, the more I think about it the more it seems likely one of the candidates contracts the virus.  That would be interesting.

I expect things to blow up here in the states in the next month - seems like we will be down to at most 3 left at that point.  If we are down to just Trump and Biden I wonder how much they will alter their schedules to avoid contact and large groups - seems like it would be almost impossible though.

 
I feel like the virus helped Biden last night.  A lot of voters claim to have made up their mind in the past few days, and they broke heavily towards the establishment.  With the virus, there is a whiff of armageddon and strange times, and the voters reacting to that vibe are likely to prefer a good-old-days candidate to one that is campaigning as a disruptor.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

GordonGekko
WSJ: Democrats Suddenly Discover POTUS Joe Biden Is 79 Years Old (7/8/22 17:51 PST)
Replies
48
Views
1K
Prinefan
P
GordonGekko
Newsweek: "Democrats Have Forgotten The Working Class. It Will Cost Them" (7/14/22 14:39 PST)
Replies
19
Views
926
GordonGekko
GordonGekko
GordonGekko
NBC News Chuck Todd On Solving Trump For POTUS 2024 - "The Only Answer Is Death" ( 7/11/22 17:52 PST)
Replies
20
Views
666
Captain Cranks
Captain Cranks

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top