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Solve the Coronavirus

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13 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

He’s afraid of the market totally collapsing. Every single decision he’s made on this and the times of his press conferences are attempts to keep it propped. 

You know this bro. 

People would buy the lockdown, that’s how the markets would stop bleeding... this is why I don’t get it.

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Just now, eoMMan said:

Yeah, not as simple as just law enforcement and military. 

We can still get bagels, right? Takeout obviously. 

Even if it was, if you quarantine police for 2 weeks prior to this lock down, who's protecting the rest of us during those 2 weeks?   

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

People would buy the lockdown, that’s how the markets would stop bleeding... this is why I don’t get it.

I agree. Pull the bandaid off and take some short term pain but he’s going to let it get way worse and it’s going to crash more than it would have when they eventually shut it down anyway. 

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6 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

 

We can still get bagels, right? Takeout obviously. 

I miss sitting at the counter and taking with the waitresses but I've found that their Wi-Fi still works in the parking lot.

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Posted (edited)

I voted other. We need to learn how to live our lives with the virus, not just hole up for an unknown period of time. Start cranking out the gear needed; masks, ventilators, extra hospital space. All that is good. We also need protective gear for citizens to operate their lives safely and reduce risks.

I don't mind doing my part to stay inside my house as my business grinds to a halt to see if distancing works, but at some point we all just need to get back to our lives the safest way possible. I don't mind the online learning for schools during this time. I've long thought the current school system is antiquated in relation to today's technology. Missing the social component for a few months is tough, but not going to bankrupt you.

Like 9/11, airlines will need to figure out a way to transport people safely. They beefed up the cabin doors and put locks on them. The increased luggage screenings and security checks. They need to do it again and re-engineer their cabins and policies to address this too. Maybe mandatory temp checks to board, protective gear for crew and mandatory masks for passengers. Every business needs to invent new ways of doing business in the time of the virus because this won't be the last one.

Edited by ericttspikes
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Posted (edited)

A full police and military enforced nationwide lockdown is the only chance we have to control this virus.  With that said—I don’t see it happening and I will explain why.  With that said—I’ll do my best to pick my words carefully as I don’t want to come across as being anti-American or anti-America.  I was born in this country—I love this country—and I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. 

As horrid as China was in lying to the rest of the world about the severity of this virus—they did work their way through the virus in a way that mitigated the damage to their institutions and economy for the least amount of time. While their government might be void of morals—their government is organized and capable.   The only way to fight this virus is through massive organization, massive discipline, and massive systematic testing and sanitization of public places.   That’s what the Chinese did.  They enforced their lockdowns through using their police, military and drones.   They systematically tested people and people who tested positive were forced to quarantine.   In the meantime—you would see videos of police/military walking down the street in rows—and sanitizing everything and anything.    They looked like storm troopers.  They would have restrictions on when people of certain areas could go to get groceries and limited how many people per household could actually go.   While their government might be corrupt and lied to the rest of the world—they did handle the issue within their country in a systematic and organized fashion—which is the only way to defeat this thing in any sort of expedited timeline. 

Our government and industries on the the other hand are morally superior—but they are also far less organized and far less capable.  The fact that the greatest country on the planet cannot even make enough gowns/masks/gloves  or test kits weeks into this thing is telling.  We haven’t even see the worst of it yet.  Domestic flights should have already been grounded by now.  No flights should be coming into or leaving places like New York or California.  We get stay at home and social distancing orders—and people were flocking to beaches a week ago.  While we are the best country in the world in my opinion— on an individual to individual level—we also have the most selfish and self-centered public on the planet.  This undisciplined public will not obey orders that are not enforced.   The only way to relieve the stress on our healthcare system would be a fully enforced nationwide lock down.  The problem is—if this goes on too much longer without that happening—we might hit the point of no return to where even that option is no longer really helpful.   

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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13 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

People would buy the lockdown, that’s how the markets would stop bleeding... this is why I don’t get it.

The only way people will buy a national lockdown is if there is a financial plan to support people told to board up their businesses for an unknown period of time. I like the $1T coin idea, or any plan that addresses my mandated short term economic hit before I agree just to sit there handing over money to pay my bills for an unknown period of time, with no clarity if there will be a business to restart when I'm allowed to leave. 

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At the moment, I'd say do the best shutdown we can until about mid-April, then let'er rip either way. 

A US shutdown is only to going to be but so effective. The list of essential businesses is just too large, and you know, personal liberties and all.

All we're really able to do is slow the spread just a little, but mainly it's just to buy time for healthcare supplies and testing.

By mid-April, I'd guess it's going to be evident that we just aren't able to properly shut down enough to stop the spread, and we just have to let the economy get going again and hope like hell the hospitals can keep up. 

Let's hope we are gaining traction by then. Because I'm positive if mid-April comes and these measures don't seem to be helping, people are just going to say screw it, let's just go back to work.

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Here's the deal.  You're in charge which means some people will die because of decisions you make.  

The longer this lasts, the more health care workers and first responders will die. 

The more severe the initial spike is, the greater percentage of infected people who die, and the greater the risk to people who aren't socially distant.  

The more at risk people who are out during the peak, the more they die.  

The longer the peak, the more difficult it will be for at risk populations to remain isolated.  

So... you can choose where the pain will be. 

Will it be most lives saved, but most freedom lost?  

Or will you allow for more deaths? 

And if you allow more deaths, will you choose

- more health care workers and first responders die

- more at risk individuals die even if they self isolate

- more responsible people die even though they tried to self isolate 

Or

- more irresponsible people die because they chose not to self isolate 

Does that play into your decision making? Do you think it's something governments are struggling with? 

 

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This thread legitimately makes me want to cry. 

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Shooting from the hip:  Really no good way out of this without massive testing; equally as imprtant, get health care providers the gear they need.

Then, lock down non-essential people until all essentials have been tested.  Maybe it takes two days, maybe it takes a week.  Then, if you want to remove yourself from the lock down, the first thing you do is get tested.  Also, until we are through this, it's mandatory that any non-tested person out in public where some sort of clearly marked piece of clothing making everyone else aware.

 

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20 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

Shooting from the hip:  Really no good way out of this without massive testing; equally as imprtant, get health care providers the gear they need.

Then, lock down non-essential people until all essentials have been tested.  Maybe it takes two days, maybe it takes a week.  Then, if you want to remove yourself from the lock down, the first thing you do is get tested.  Also, until we are through this, it's mandatory that any non-tested person out in public where some sort of clearly marked piece of clothing making everyone else aware.

 

I think you're on the right track with that idea. :thumbup:

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2 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

How does a 30-day lockdown solve anything?  Assume we do that and it works perfectly.  What stops CV from coming over from other countries on day 31?

Agree but it can happen from state to state, city to city as well.

Well the lockdown stems but does not eliminate the rate of infection and mortality.  

This disease started with just one person being infected and has now spread over the world. As long as one person remains infected the world is at risk until a vaccine is developed or a herd immunity develops through exposure.

Until then the best we can do is take steps to reduce the risk of transmission, quarantine the infected, and develop the best methods of treating those infected.

We can not keep everyone lock downed for 18 months (chose 18 months as a best guess before a vaccine is developed and distributed) and at some point during this time businesses and government will adapt and further develop those procedures that reduce transmission, quickly identify the infected and isolate and treat them. Life and business will go on but at a slower pace taking account of the dangers of the virus. There will be more risk.

A problem is what do you do with those who recklessly disregard or flout safety procedures? Some type of imprisonment that isolates. As we build more MASH like medical units to treat the infected we will also need corresponding containment/imprisonment units.

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Wife just saw a FB pic of our local park. Full five on five b-ball game with people waiting to take on winners. Kids, moms pushing strollers. Just find it real hard to feel sorry for a lot of people that get community spread. It really is just Darwanism at this point.

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10 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

Wife just saw a FB pic of our local park. Full five on five b-ball game with people waiting to take on winners. Kids, moms pushing strollers. Just find it real hard to feel sorry for a lot of people that get community spread. It really is just Darwanism at this point.

So are you saying NY is filled with aholes?  Is that what you're saying?  Dude, I don't know if that's nice.

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

How does a 30-day lockdown solve anything?  Assume we do that and it works perfectly.  What stops CV from coming over from other countries on day 31?

If it works perfectly, you quarantine all travelers/immigrants for 14 days. If there is an outbreak somewhere - you quarantine and test those involved and all exposed. This is what we should've done from the outset. 

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2 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

A full police and military enforced nationwide lockdown is the only chance we have to control this virus.  With that said—I don’t see it happening and I will explain why.  With that said—I’ll do my best to pick my words carefully as I don’t want to come across as being anti-American or anti-America.  I was born in this country—I love this country—and I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. 

As horrid as China was in lying to the rest of the world about the severity of this virus—they did work their way through the virus in a way that mitigated the damage to their institutions and economy for the least amount of time. While their government might be void of morals—their government is organized and capable.   The only way to fight this virus is through massive organization, massive discipline, and massive systematic testing and sanitization of public places.   That’s what the Chinese did.  They enforced their lockdowns through using their police, military and drones.   They systematically tested people and people who tested positive were forced to quarantine.   In the meantime—you would see videos of police/military walking down the street in rows—and sanitizing everything and anything.    They looked like storm troopers.  They would have restrictions on when people of certain areas could go to get groceries and limited how many people per household could actually go.   While their government might be corrupt and lied to the rest of the world—they did handle the issue within their country in a systematic and organized fashion—which is the only way to defeat this thing in any sort of expedited timeline. 

Our government and industries on the the other hand are morally superior—but they are also far less organized and far less capable.  The fact that the greatest country on the planet cannot even make enough gowns/masks/gloves  or test kits weeks into this thing is telling.  We haven’t even see the worst of it yet.  Domestic flights should have already been grounded by now.  No flights should be coming into or leaving places like New York or California.  We get stay at home and social distancing orders—and people were flocking to beaches a week ago.  While we are the best country in the world in my opinion— on an individual to individual level—we also have the most selfish and self-centered public on the planet.  This undisciplined public will not obey orders that are not enforced.   The only way to relieve the stress on our healthcare system would be a fully enforced nationwide lock down.  The problem is—if this goes on too much longer without that happening—we might hit the point of no return to where even that option is no longer really helpful.   

But the flip side is their government learned nothing from SARS 1, continued wet markets and caused SARS 2.  They also reportedly had mass graves and if we're to believed mass cremations so who knows if we'll get to to a honest number to determine their effect and impact.  Their delay and obfuscation also heightened things. 

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6 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Solutions? Please explain. 

I think it's simple, really... Lock it down for 30 days, everything, put people inside, enforce it, eliminate the spread. Homeless people should be rounded up, put in camps, fed/clothed/isolated. Yes inhumane, but we all must make sacrifices to get back to normal.

Finally, keep all borders closed until other countries get it in check too. 

We are basically locked down now, just to go out essentials to live by.

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5 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

But the flip side is their government learned nothing from SARS 1, continued wet markets and caused SARS 2.  They also reportedly had mass graves and if we're to believed mass cremations so who knows if we'll get to to a honest number to determine their effect and impact.  Their delay and obfuscation also heightened things. 

Yes, but China isn't the reason we are in the place where we are now. This is a situation of our own making. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

A full police and military enforced nationwide lockdown is the only chance we have to control this virus.  With that said—I don’t see it happening and I will explain why.  With that said—I’ll do my best to pick my words carefully as I don’t want to come across as being anti-American or anti-America.  I was born in this country—I love this country—and I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else. 

As horrid as China was in lying to the rest of the world about the severity of this virus—they did work their way through the virus in a way that mitigated the damage to their institutions and economy for the least amount of time. While their government might be void of morals—their government is organized and capable.   The only way to fight this virus is through massive organization, massive discipline, and massive systematic testing and sanitization of public places.   That’s what the Chinese did.  They enforced their lockdowns through using their police, military and drones.   They systematically tested people and people who tested positive were forced to quarantine.   In the meantime—you would see videos of police/military walking down the street in rows—and sanitizing everything and anything.    They looked like storm troopers.  They would have restrictions on when people of certain areas could go to get groceries and limited how many people per household could actually go.   While their government might be corrupt and lied to the rest of the world—they did handle the issue within their country in a systematic and organized fashion—which is the only way to defeat this thing in any sort of expedited timeline. 

Our government and industries on the the other hand are morally superior—but they are also far less organized and far less capable.  The fact that the greatest country on the planet cannot even make enough gowns/masks/gloves  or test kits weeks into this thing is telling.  We haven’t even see the worst of it yet.  Domestic flights should have already been grounded by now.  No flights should be coming into or leaving places like New York or California.  We get stay at home and social distancing orders—and people were flocking to beaches a week ago.  While we are the best country in the world in my opinion— on an individual to individual level—we also have the most selfish and self-centered public on the planet.  This undisciplined public will not obey orders that are not enforced.   The only way to relieve the stress on our healthcare system would be a fully enforced nationwide lock down.  The problem is—if this goes on too much longer without that happening—we might hit the point of no return to where even that option is no longer really helpful.   

You are not being anti-American at all.  We all want this to end but the china method of control would never work in other areas.

If people think ICE should be abolished would they accept being welded into their own homes and apartments by military? Confronted on the streets with thermometers and dragged away? 

Having been to China a number a times for work the average Chinese person has very little knowledge of what is really going on in their country.  There is a reason China censures Google and Twitter and anything that may expose the other side.

The USA, Canada and other countries could try those tactics but it just won`t work. Right now personal responsibility is the only way to combat this.  Free countries have a difficult time with that but right now we have no choice.

 

As far as being able to fulfill our needs for gowns, masks, gloves, and some meds.  We gave that part of our economy away decades ago to save $$$$.    Hopefully that will change ASAP.

Edited by Da Guru
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40 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

But the flip side is their government learned nothing from SARS 1, continued wet markets and caused SARS 2.  They also reportedly had mass graves and if we're to believed mass cremations so who knows if we'll get to to a honest number to determine their effect and impact.  Their delay and obfuscation also heightened things. 

Oh I agree—they certainly are not “innocent’ by any means.   They caused and created these problems and I firmly believe that the numbers they are reporting about this virus are laughably low.  I think the death toll in China alone is probably in the tens of thousands—and I do believe that the virus was beyond Italy/New York bad over there.   My thoughts are basically in line with what an epidemiologist said on CNBC today in an interview.  They were asking him how countries like Singapore and South Korea seemed to be handling the virus better than countries like Italy, Spain and the United States.  

He basically said that those countries (and added China into the mix) just practiced old school methods but in very systematic and organized fashions. He said that China had 9000 people whose job was to do nothing but to contact trace people that tested positive.  Also—people that tested positive were isolated from those who didn’t test positive—which is exactly why testing in volume is soo important.  The scary thing about this virus is that people can be very contagious without even knowing they have it.  Look at Rand Paul for example.  He is an “essential’ worker and had no symptoms.  If he didn’t randomly get tested—you could see a lot more of our congress infected with it by now.   My only point is that following an organized and systematic plan  for testing, isolating and reducing exposures for several weeks will absolutely help in slowing this thing down with any sort of efficiency.  The people that are filling our emergency rooms now are people that most likely got exposed to the virus one to two weeks ago.  If we reduce exposures now by locking down and testing—the odds are that we can release a lot of pressure from our healthcare system 3-4 weeks from now. 

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1 hour ago, eoMMan said:

So are you saying NY is filled with aholes?  Is that what you're saying?  Dude, I don't know if that's nice.

Well, I live in Texas so I don't think I said anything about NY. But, NY, yea. I mean when the mayor and Governor are saying that their own folks are being a-holes, I tend to believe them.

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31 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Oh I agree—they certainly are not “innocent’ by any means.   They caused and created these problems and I firmly believe that the numbers they are reporting about this virus are laughably low.  I think the death toll in China alone is probably in the tens of thousands—and I do believe that the virus was beyond Italy/New York bad over there.   My thoughts are basically in line with what an epidemiologist said on CNBC today in an interview.  They were asking him how countries like Singapore and South Korea seemed to be handling the virus better than countries like Italy, Spain and the United States.  

He basically said that those countries (and added China into the mix) just practiced old school methods but in very systematic and organized fashions. He said that China had 9000 people whose job was to do nothing but to contact trace people that tested positive.  Also—people that tested positive were isolated from those who didn’t test positive—which is exactly why testing in volume is soo important.  The scary thing about this virus is that people can be very contagious without even knowing they have it.  Look at Rand Paul for example.  He is an “essential’ worker and had no symptoms.  If he didn’t randomly get tested—you could see a lot more of our congress infected with it by now.   My only point is that following an organized and systematic plan  for testing, isolating and reducing exposures for several weeks will absolutely help in slowing this thing down with any sort of efficiency.  The people that are filling our emergency rooms now are people that most likely got exposed to the virus one to two weeks ago.  If we reduce exposures now by locking down and testing—the odds are that we can release a lot of pressure from our healthcare system 3-4 weeks from now. 

I wonder what of this is owed to a difference in lifestyle and scale.  Wuhan, if I'm to be reading correctly, might be an area we can consider like NYC to Boston.  So big, but America has twice as many cars as South Korea and four times as many as China.  I think contract tracing was easier in these countries and the geography was in their favor in South Korea for sure.  

We also need to acknowledge the political realities of our country.  I would have been fully behind this kind of action we are partaking on February 1st, not March 13th.  But on February 1st, half the country thought Trump was going to be a dictator.  If you flipped the light switch then, a vastly under informed chunk of the populace would not have swallowed this.

I also say, SARS-1 is the biggest reason SARS-2 is happening.  It was a very ominous and worrysome situation that as I understand it epidimologists still don't quite know why that didn't explode here.  We had flare ups but it didn't happen.  With that history at our back, would there have been that much early support for a pandemic response?  

Also with regard to the bolded, the systematic old school response is also made possible by an ingrained totalitarianism that I'm glad we don't outwardly have, yet anyway.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rcam said:

Yes, but China isn't the reason we are in the place where we are now. This is a situation of our own making. 

Well, actually they are.  They knew the issues with their food production and they caused this mess we are now left to clean up.  

So, we could have closed off all international travel as of January 31st I guess, allowing only Americans to return and come home to quarantine as by that point the virus would have eventually spread to Europe and eventually would have come to America and more than likely we would have had some returning americans affected so we may have indeed flattened the curve but we'd have had this on our hands sooner or later.  

Has our response been flawless?  Obviously not, but I think the spread of this is owed more to the disease than the response.  This is a big interconnected world now and there were too many holes in the net for this thing to have gotten through.   I WOULD like us to learn and to do much better next time but there's literally no one on earth in all likelihood who has a living memory of the last time this happened.  Its an old problem with new dynamics and a lot of cracks to seal

Edited by Smack Tripper
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15 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Well, actually they are.  They knew the issues with their food production and they caused this mess we are now left to clean up.  

So, we could have closed off all international travel as of January 31st I guess, allowing only Americans to return and come home to quarantine as by that point the virus would have eventually spread to Europe and eventually would have come to America and more than likely we would have had some returning americans affected so we may have indeed flattened the curve but we'd have had this on our hands sooner or later.  

Has our response been flawless?  Obviously not, but I think the spread of this is owed more to the disease than the response.  This is a big interconnected world now and there were too many holes in the net for this thing to have gotten through.   I WOULD like us to learn and to do much better next time but there's literally no one on earth in all likelihood who has a living memory of the last time this happened.  Its an old problem with new dynamics and a lot of cracks to seal

Provide evidence that the disease started with food production.  Thanks.

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8 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

Genuine question. Is there more beyond just this?

Quote

How did the outbreak start?

The source of the coronavirus is believed to be a "wet market" in Wuhan which sold both dead and live animals including fish and birds. 

Such markets pose a heightened risk of viruses jumping from animals to humans because hygiene standards are difficult to maintain if live animals are being kept and butchered on site. Typically, they are also densely packed.

The animal source of the latest outbreak has not yet been identified, but the original host is thought to be bats. Bats were not sold at the Wuhan market but may have infected live chickens or other animals sold there. 

 

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Voted other.  This is way too nuanced to make a simple decision of lockdown or not.  I don't know the answer, but I don't think any of these options are it.

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We will have to see if these numbers plummet once it gets warmer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why The Flu Virus Is More Infectious In Cold Winter Temperatures

Date:

April 1, 2008

Source:

NIH/National Institute of Child Health

Summary:

A new finding may account for why the flu virus is more infectious in cold winter temperatures than during the warmer months. At winter temperatures, the virus's outer covering, or envelope, hardens to a rubbery gel that could shield the virus as it passes from person to person, the researchers have found. At warmer temperatures, however, the protective gel melts to a liquid phase. But this liquid phase apparently isn't tough enough to protect the virus against the elements, and so the virus loses its ability to spread from person to person.

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Develop at home testing with short timeframe for results* (6 hours or less) and mass produce so that supply is not an issue.  Federal mandate that you are not to leave home unless you have a negative test taken within the last 48 hours, punishable by jail time.  Have people carry their negative test results with them and have law enforcement do random screens in public areas. 

Not perfect.  People still die, but less die and we get back some semblance of normalcy and also limit 'death of despair'  

 

*Admittedly this is probably a pipe dream 

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50 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Genuine question. Is there more beyond just this?

 

That I don't know, but I'm assuming any information or knowledge of the market would be from the Chinese government so they initially alluded to this before trying to recraft the narrative.  Occams razor to me was they didn't like the critique of their community and culture so they chose to obfuscate this but I believe SARS-1 was believed to have similar origins.  I'm not, nor do I assume any of us are epidemiologists or micro biologists.  I believe one of the leading researchers said its got very shared common traits with SARS-1 and doesn't show any signs of any manufacture as I'm sure we all heard speculated based on the Wuhan lab

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Posted (edited)

This is the framework I posted yesterday to get the country back opened up for the most part by mid April at the latest. The biggest emphasis centers on ramping up supply of masks and gloves to supply health care professionals first and foremost but then to expand that effort to supply each and every American with masks and gloves...

1) Expand hospital and ICU capacity by adding beds, supplying respirators, masks, gloves, PPE (underway)

2) Advise businesses (new and old) manufacturing personal protective masks and gloves that the required supply is the ENTIRE NATION not just health care workers. HCW supplied first (unknown)

3) Continue stockpiling the drugs which have been working elsewhere and are currently working here (underway)

4) Continue testing other promising drugs to not only provide alternatives in the event a given drug stops working but also to ease supply concerns (underway)

5) Expedite vaccines so that what becomes manageable in the short term becomes a non issue by year's end (underway, timetable hopeful)

6) Devise a methodology to supply each and every American with masks and gloves which become mandatory for wear in public (unknown)

7) Determine when the supply of hospital beds, ICU capacity, PPE, ventilators, masks, gloves will meet the projected nationwide demand (unknown)

8 ) Announce a date in which all current non essential businesses will be allowed to re-open and pair that with the mandate that masks and gloves are mandatory while in public (unknown)

 

We simply can't wait for this virus to completely disappear. The consequences of shutting down the economy in the meantime will far exceed the loss of life from the virus. And that moment is coming soon. It's probable that the loss of life simply from workers losing health benefits alone will far exceed the loss of life from the virus. And that's not even mentioning the loss of life that corresponds with people running out of money (lack of food, shelter, medicine, mental health). A combination of ramping up ability to keep up with the virus via more beds, treatment drugs, etc. paired with putting society back to work in personal protective gear of their own would be a means to keep the numbers manageable while society functions as normal, people working, spending, traveling, etc. Once a date is known that the supply of the above essentials is evident, it must be announced so businesses and individuals have a target date to aim for and to act as a stabilizing force economically and for people's mental health.

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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11 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

Well, actually they are.  They knew the issues with their food production and they caused this mess we are now left to clean up.  

So, we could have closed off all international travel as of January 31st I guess, allowing only Americans to return and come home to quarantine as by that point the virus would have eventually spread to Europe and eventually would have come to America and more than likely we would have had some returning americans affected so we may have indeed flattened the curve but we'd have had this on our hands sooner or later.  

Has our response been flawless?  Obviously not, but I think the spread of this is owed more to the disease than the response.  This is a big interconnected world now and there were too many holes in the net for this thing to have gotten through.   I WOULD like us to learn and to do much better next time but there's literally no one on earth in all likelihood who has a living memory of the last time this happened.  Its an old problem with new dynamics and a lot of cracks to seal

Diseases can start anywhere. Bird flu and swine flu usually start on farms but you don't seem to be advocating for stopping eating chicken and pork. The reason we are in the situation we are now has absolutely nothing to do with China. In fact, we were lucky to see what was happening in China and what they had to do to contain the virus before it was even an issue here. The fact that we were unwilling to take the same steps is on us - not on them. China and S. Korea have contained the virus - lack of containment isn't owed to the disease it is due to the weak, uncoordinated, response.

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1 hour ago, Peyton Marino said:

Develop at home testing with short timeframe for results* (6 hours or less) and mass produce so that supply is not an issue.  Federal mandate that you are not to leave home unless you have a negative test taken within the last 48 hours, punishable by jail time.  Have people carry their negative test results with them and have law enforcement do random screens in public areas. 

Not perfect.  People still die, but less die and we get back some semblance of normalcy and also limit 'death of despair'  

 

*Admittedly this is probably a pipe dream 

Probably a pipe dream? I assume you are talking a few years down the road? We dont even have enough tests for the hospitals and clinics to use.

And no, I dont think we need to show our papers when the Orpo asks for them. 

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19 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

by most data, more contagious and much deadlier than flu.

It actually doesn’t appear to be more contagious than the flu.   That perspective is based on imperfect estimates.  We see far more people infected with the flu - worldwide and in the US - far more rapidly.....than what we’ve seen with CV.

That said.....it’s clearly more deadly than the flu. And it really isn’t even close.

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25 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Probably a pipe dream? I assume you are talking a few years down the road? We dont even have enough tests for the hospitals and clinics to use.

Yes, probably.  Innovation can happen quickly and not always in a linear fashion.  

 

Quote

And no, I dont think we need to show our papers when the Orpo asks for them. 

lol ok

 

look it's a pipe dream and I said as much.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rcam said:

Diseases can start anywhere. Bird flu and swine flu usually start on farms but you don't seem to be advocating for stopping eating chicken and pork. The reason we are in the situation we are now has absolutely nothing to do with China. In fact, we were lucky to see what was happening in China and what they had to do to contain the virus before it was even an issue here. The fact that we were unwilling to take the same steps is on us - not on them. China and S. Korea have contained the virus - lack of containment isn't owed to the disease it is due to the weak, uncoordinated, response.

Chinese plant joins the board?  

Yes, diseases can start anywhere, where do I go now to discuss probability?  Have health rates not improved in the western world as we improved sanitation and cleanliness in our food production?  Has food inspection not lead to a better product?  As Chinese wet markets  cleans the product in the same area they're selling it.   Where people squeeze the product like its grapefruit in open air bins

Yes tell me how lucky we are when they locked up a doctor who was spreading the word about it, tell me how fortunate we are that they denied person to person transmission.  And I guess we should thank them for still allowing outgoing flights while this went on.

Edited by Smack Tripper
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21 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

It actually doesn’t appear to be more contagious than the flu.   That perspective is based on imperfect estimates.  We see far more people infected with the flu - worldwide and in the US - far more rapidly.....than what we’ve seen with CV.

That said.....it’s clearly more deadly than the flu. And it really isn’t even close.

We've gone from 1 to 400k cases in less than 4 months. The flu has an estimated reproduction rate of 1.3, Covid-19 is estimated right now between 2 & 3. 

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

We've gone from 1 to 400k cases in less than 4 months. The flu has an estimated reproduction rate of 1.3, Covid-19 is estimated right now between 2 & 3. 

I’m familiar with the R0 for each.  Those estimates are purely estimates.

Either way, the fatality rate is the bigger issue.

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9 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Chinese plant joins the board?  

Yes, diseases can start anywhere, where do I go now to discuss probability?  Have health rates not improved in the western world as we improved sanitation and cleanliness in our food production?  Has food inspection not lead to a better product?  As Chinese wet markets  cleans the product in the same area they're selling it.  

Yes tell me how lucky we are when they locked up a doctor who was spreading the word about it, tell me how fortunate we are that they denied person to person transmission.  And I guess we should thank them for still allowing outgoing flights while this went on.

I hope the world can collectively turn their backs on China when this is over. I am making more of an effort to avoid companies with supply chain in China. iPhone will prob be my toughest to get off of. 

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Just now, Alex P Keaton said:

I’m familiar with the R0 for each.  Those estimates are purely estimates.

Either way, the fatality rate is the bigger issue.

They are estimates, but estimates right now are showing more contagious... Fatality isn't even close, so agreed there. 

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1 hour ago, Smack Tripper said:

Chinese plant joins the board?  

Yes, diseases can start anywhere, where do I go now to discuss probability?  Have health rates not improved in the western world as we improved sanitation and cleanliness in our food production?  Has food inspection not lead to a better product?  As Chinese wet markets  cleans the product in the same area they're selling it.   Where people squeeze the product like its grapefruit in open air bins

Yes tell me how lucky we are when they locked up a doctor who was spreading the word about it, tell me how fortunate we are that they denied person to person transmission.  And I guess we should thank them for still allowing outgoing flights while this went on.

What you are saying is completely irrelevant to the situation at hand. Literally, irrelevant. If a forest fire is started by an arsonist, accident, or lightning strike you still have to fight the fire. If you have the opportunity to put that fire out immediately and choose not to then it is just as much your fault as whatever it is that started it when the neighborhood burns down.

China is horrible. They are secretive, evasive, and untrustworthy. Food/water preparation is poor in the majority of the world's countries - not just China. That doesn't change the fact that we saw this happening to other countries before it was an issue here. It doesn't matter if the disease started in a wet market. It literally doesn't matter because the disease is now a reality.

As of March 1, we had 75 total cases with 1 death.

China, *that we knew of*, had 80000, with 2900 deaths and had the spread under control at that point.

South Korea had 3700 and 21.

As of today, 3 weeks later, S. Korea has totaled 9000 cases, China has totaled 81000 cases, we have 50000. That exponential spread is on us and it is only going to get worse because of our behavior. Both, China and S. Korea showed us the damn blueprint to getting this thing under control but we ignored it. Instead of doing something about it we sat on our hands. We, in effect, are still sitting on our hands because we, as a nation, aren't cooperating or coordinating. 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/24/2020 at 9:43 AM, Peyton Marino said:

Develop at home testing with short timeframe for results* (6 hours or less) and mass produce so that supply is not an issue.  Federal mandate that you are not to leave home unless you have a negative test taken within the last 48 hours, punishable by jail time.  Have people carry their negative test results with them and have law enforcement do random screens in public areas. 

Not perfect.  People still die, but less die and we get back some semblance of normalcy and also limit 'death of despair'  

 

*Admittedly this is probably a pipe dream 

UK is making a go at this, supposedly. 

Edited by fantasycurse42

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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

UK is making a go at this, supposedly. 

hope they can find some success.  strongly feel that the best way to 'solve' this in the short and intermediate terms is to make testing as widespread as possible.  quarantining the symptomatic is not good enough as so many people can be carriers without knowing.   lockdown may work, but no one wants to do that and we don't know what happens once lockdown is lifted (we'll begin learning from SK and China soon, hopefully).   

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1 minute ago, Peyton Marino said:

hope they can find some success.  strongly feel that the best way to 'solve' this in the short and intermediate terms is to make testing as widespread as possible.  quarantining the symptomatic is not good enough as so many people can be carriers without knowing.   lockdown may work, but no one wants to do that and we don't know what happens once lockdown is lifted (we'll begin learning from SK and China soon, hopefully).   

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-test-uk-kit-home-nhs-cases-symptoms-public-health-england-a9424741.html

 

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On 3/23/2020 at 2:55 PM, Rich Conway said:

How does a 30-day lockdown solve anything?  Assume we do that and it works perfectly.  What stops CV from coming over from other countries on day 31?

It's OK if new isolateable cases come in starting on Day 31. IOW, the 30 days off gives America a kind of a do-over -- a chance to institute isolation measures and contact tracing that should have been initiated mid-February.

It's not so much a blanket problem of "having cases". It's having cases running wild in the background. A month pretty much burns out those "wild cases". On Day 31, you catch them as they come in as best you can (yes, some will be missed in real time ... but hopefully only a small number of asymptomatics).

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