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5th draft slot thread: 12 team ppr or half-ppr (1 Viewer)

joey

joey

Footballguy
Didn’t see a 5th draft slot thread so starting one. 
 

I’ll start....in some mocks I've done, and rankings, I see Michael Thomas going around 1.05. But I’m personally not loving the RBs I would be choosing from in the 2nd, so I think going RB in the 1st (your preference of Kamara, Henry, Cook) and then take a WR in the 2nd (Godwin, Evans, Hopkins, Galladay) is a very solid start. And the mocks I like most are when I alternate between RB/WR/RB/WR...through the first few rounds, and grabbing a QB in the 7th or so. 
 

any thoughts on the 5th pick?

 
Kind of depends who goes 4th, no? Top 3 is pretty obvious, but then the 4th pick is where it starts to deviate a bit. I would agree that the RB1s are gone by the 2nd round pick usually.

 
I would normally say Thomas is a homerun here if he's there.  But after many drafts, I'd go RB here even if Thomas was on the board (for sure in half ppr).  Grab Kamara or CEH or Cook ... wr's will fall.  I promise.

 
Deamon said:
I would normally say Thomas is a homerun here if he's there.  But after many drafts, I'd go RB here even if Thomas was on the board (for sure in half ppr).  Grab Kamara or CEH or Cook ... wr's will fall.  I promise.
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Yeah, that’s what I'm seeing in ADP data and mocks. I will say I see another critical drop off at RB after the 3.5, so I think I’d like to have 2 RBs after 3 rounds, and 3 RBs after 5 rounds (maybe take my 3rd RB in the 6th instead depending on if there's a big tier of RBs sitting their at my 5th pick that I think will make it back to me in the 6th). 
but, then again, I could copy/paste that above approach I take when drafting from year to year. It’s served me well in general though. 

 
joey said:
Yeah, that’s what I'm seeing in ADP data and mocks. I will say I see another critical drop off at RB after the 3.5, so I think I’d like to have 2 RBs after 3 rounds, and 3 RBs after 5 rounds (maybe take my 3rd RB in the 6th instead depending on if there's a big tier of RBs sitting their at my 5th pick that I think will make it back to me in the 6th). 
but, then again, I could copy/paste that above approach I take when drafting from year to year. It’s served me well in general though. 
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I prepped a lot and in all 5 drafts I've done I was shocked at how dried up RB was after a few rounds.  If I could redo my drafts I'd go RB RB RB WR WR WR even in PPR. 

 
Deamon said:
I prepped a lot and in all 5 drafts I've done I was shocked at how dried up RB was after a few rounds.  If I could redo my drafts I'd go RB RB RB WR WR WR even in PPR. 
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Interesting. I found similar in some mocks. Not as extreme, but considering RB/WR/RB/RB in the 1st 4 rounds to get my b@ckup RB before the drought hits. (Disclaimer: the league in question can start only 2 RBs max, i.e. no flex)

 
joey said:
Interesting. I found similar in some mocks. Not as extreme, but considering RB/WR/RB/RB in the 1st 4 rounds to get my b@ckup RB before the drought hits. (Disclaimer: the league in question can start only 2 RBs max, i.e. no flex)
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I guess it depends who falls to you at 2.08.  I don't love the WR's in that spot.

 
joey said:
Interesting. I found similar in some mocks. Not as extreme, but considering RB/WR/RB/RB in the 1st 4 rounds to get my b@ckup RB before the drought hits. (Disclaimer: the league in question can start only 2 RBs max, i.e. no flex)
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Yep. Rb of your choice in round 1. If another top RB falls to the 2nd, grab him and take the best WR in round 3. If the RB's left in round 2 are in your same tier, grab your favorite WR and grab a RB in round 3. After round 3 you want two RB and a WR.

 
DirtyCashDylan said:
Anyone else nervous about Kamara and Cook contract wise? They were both who i was mocking the most at 1.5 but I may shoot for CEH now. At 2.8, I'm shooting for a Chubb or A Jones or one of the top 5 WRs. If they aren't there then that means Kelce or even Mahomes will be. I posted some mocks I was doing here https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/787676-redraft-ppr-15-discussion/
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mark me down as nervous. (Though, literally, as I started typing this, I got a Sleeper alert saying Kamara will return to NO tomorrow). 

Also nervous about Cook's injury history.

Also nervous about drafting a rookie in CEH at 1.05  is it just me or are others surprised at the mention of CEH at the 5 slot? If you are considering him, convince me please :)

 
joey said:
mark me down as nervous. (Though, literally, as I started typing this, I got a Sleeper alert saying Kamara will return to NO tomorrow). 

Also nervous about Cook's injury history.

Also nervous about drafting a rookie in CEH at 1.05  is it just me or are others surprised at the mention of CEH at the 5 slot? If you are considering him, convince me please :)
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and it is all these reasons which push me towards Henry. Plus not for nothing, I am a devotee to the Draft Dominator (mostly the classic) and when I run it for my league, Henry comes out # 4, ahead of Cook, Kamara and CEH.

I have "faith in the process". :)  

 
Payne said:
Not from me. Especially in PPR. Defenses will scheme to stop him. I'll take Cook, Kamara and CEH over him all day. 
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well, in my 0.5 point PPR league last year, he finished # 3. When defenses WERE actually scheming to stop him. Plus, that A.J. Brown guy will certainly draw at least some attention. 

 
Have the #5 in a 12 team PPR league, but not for a few days.

Right now, there is no way I could take Kamara. No way. If he gets traded, his value drops significantly.

Cook is scary as well.

I think I have to go Henry if drafting today. Thomas is a slam dunk yeah yeah. Don't love taking a WR this early when you know WR depth is insane this year. Also, E. Sanders is no Ted Ginn.

There are also rumblings that KC is interested in Fournette.

I'd have to go Henry. Tonight.

Also, S. Bloom is all in on Henry over Cook and Kamara right now.

 
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kyoun1e said:
Have the #5 in a 12 team PPR league, but not for a few days.

Right now, there is no way I could take Kamara. No way. If he gets traded, his value drops significantly.

Cook is scary as well.

I think I have to go Henry if drafting today. Thomas is a slam dunk yeah yeah. Don't love taking a WR this early when you know WR depth is insane this year. Also, E. Sanders is no Ted Ginn.

There are also rumblings that KC is interested in Fournette.

I'd have to go Henry. Tonight.

Also, S. Bloom is all in on Henry over Cook and Kamara right now.
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This is basically my reasoning as well. Going "safer floor" (still a pretty damn high floor) with Henry, over the questions around Kamara, Cook and the rookie. If drafting tonight (or this Monday night, like I will be) Henry is my pick at 5. 
then WR in the 2nd, unless a top 12 RB falls.

then RB in the 3rd if I went WR in the 2nd. Or visa versa if I went RB in the 2nd. 
my league is not TE-mandatory, so I’ll likely alternate between RB and WR all the way til the 7th round where I see what the QB landscape looks like...or unless massive value hits with Mahomes or Lamar in the 3rd (not happening in my league) or Watson/Dak/Wilson in the 6th (also unlikely). Now that I type that, I’m going to mock "reaching" on a QB in the 5th and see how that looks. 

 
I'm falling out of love with all of the RBs at 5.

Michael Thomas, James Conner is looking better and better. Then you can go best available in the 3rd. David Johnson, Johnathan Taylor (with Mack later), Chris Carson, or a number of WRs.

 
joey said:
This is basically my reasoning as well. Going "safer floor" (still a pretty damn high floor) with Henry, over the questions around Kamara, Cook and the rookie. If drafting tonight (or this Monday night, like I will be) Henry is my pick at 5. 
then WR in the 2nd, unless a top 12 RB falls.

then RB in the 3rd if I went WR in the 2nd. Or visa versa if I went RB in the 2nd. 
my league is not TE-mandatory, so I’ll likely alternate between RB and WR all the way til the 7th round where I see what the QB landscape looks like...or unless massive value hits with Mahomes or Lamar in the 3rd (not happening in my league) or Watson/Dak/Wilson in the 6th (also unlikely). Now that I type that, I’m going to mock "reaching" on a QB in the 5th and see how that looks. 
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Hoping things change and I can go Cook or Kamara at #5.

Here's my typical mock draft in ESPN right now:

RD 1.5: D. Cook or Kamara.

RD 2.8: G. Kittle or Kelce. There's so much value at WR this year I think this is the perfect time to get an elite TE.

RD 3.5: J. Conner or C. Carson. I'm hitching my wagon to Conner this season and grabbing Snell later.

RD 4.8: AJ Brown. Sometimes he's gone here.

RD 5.5: DK Metcalf or T. McLaurin. 

RD 6.8: R. Mostert or R. Jones or K. Hunt. I'll take one of these three as my #3 RB.

RD 7.5: M. Brown, W. Fuller, T. Boyd, M. Gallup. One of these 4 are always available. Looking at my WR depth now, I'm happy.

RD 8.8: Z. Moss. Another guy I'm high on. Will get high leverage carries and could win the job outright.

RD 9.5: Either A. Mattison or L. Murray. Depends on if I get Cook or Kamara in round 1.

RD 10.8: It's time to draft a QB. One of J. Allen, M. Ryan, T. Brady, C. Wentz, D. Brees. Fine with any of them. I bet I stream all year based on matchups.

RD 11.5: Looking at defense here. Really high on PIT D. Buffalo has cupcake matchups week 1 and 2 also.

RD 12+: Load up on upside RBs: D. Harris, C. Edmonds, etc. Maybe grab A. Miller at WR (I'm only carrying 4 on roster in order to focus on lottery ticket RBs), and kicker.

Would be very happy with the above if it plays out on draft day.

 
My draft is on Monday night and I’m panicking over the 5th overall pick now that the FBG mock draft app has taken Henry in the top 4 picks 5 times in a row. Dang. That was my safe pick. I went into a spiral and hated all my mocks. 
Cook = injury prone. Contract issues

Kamara = contract issue and back injection. 
 

I want neither. And when I mock Mike Thomas at the 1.5, I hate the results. (This league is just 1/2 PPR)
So I either go "relatively safe" in Jacobs. Or unknown with high upside in the rookie CEH. 

talk me through this fellas :)  

I'm also seeing both Carson and Conner mock between the 2.8 and 3.5 pick, so my thought of going WR at the 2.8 doesn’t feel as good when I don’t think I can get one of those 2RBs in the 3rd. 
still mocking...

 
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joey said:
My draft is on Monday night and I’m panicking over the 5th overall pick now that the FBG mock draft app has taken Henry in the top 4 picks 5 times in a row. Dang. That was my safe pick. I went into a spiral and hated all my mocks. 
Cook = injury prone. Contract issues

Kamara = contract issue and back injection. 
 

I want neither. And when I mock Mike Thomas at the 1.5, I hate the results. (This league is just 1/2 PPR)
So I either go "relatively safe" in Jacobs. Or unknown with high upside in the rookie CEH. 

talk me through this fellas :)  

I'm also seeing both Carson and Conner mock between the 2.8 and 3.5 pick, so my thought of going WR at the 2.8 doesn’t feel as good when I don’t think I can get one of those 2RBs in the 3rd. 
still mocking...
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I’m betting Henry is there for you. IF CEH, Cook & Kamara are undesirable to you, take Thomas & get a good RB on the way back. I’ve seen Aaron AJones, Miles Sanders, Conner all make it there. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m betting Henry is there for you. IF CEH, Cook & Kamara are undesirable to you, take Thomas & get a good RB on the way back. I’ve seen Aaron AJones, Miles Sanders, Conner all make it there. 
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Nah. If Henry isn’t there, I think I go Jacobs, then the obvious approach of looking at tiers for RB and WR at my 2.08 pick will determine if I go RB/WR or WR/RB at 2/3  Either way, I’m 90% confident I leave the 3rd round with 2 RBs and 1 WR and NOT 2WRs and 1RB. I’d only take an RB that early if one of Mahomes or Jackson drop to my 3.5 pick (which I doubt they will). 

 
my LOCAL, 25+ year, 12 team, 0.5ppr, non-TE-mandatory draft just happened. Here are my results...

Zeke (can't believe he fell to me. Someone went Kamara before him and another was one of those wild card owners who picks Mahomes 4th overall 😐 )

Tyreek

Carson

Lockett

Akers

Gallup

Brees

ZMoss

Pitt D

P Williams

etc...

VERY happy with the results since I feel like the first 4 round were a dream scenario that I was never able to mock in 20+ tries.

 
Air Stich said:
I'm falling out of love with all of the RBs at 5.

Michael Thomas, James Conner is looking better and better. Then you can go best available in the 3rd. David Johnson, Johnathan Taylor (with Mack later), Chris Carson, or a number of WRs.
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Connor at 2.8 seems like a reach.  He should be there at 3.05 in over half the leagues out there.

 
Deamon said:
Connor at 2.8 seems like a reach.  He should be there at 3.05 in over half the leagues out there.
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Connor went 2.9 in the same draft I referenced 2 posts back. I was happy/relieved that Carson made it to me at 3.5

 
joey said:
Connor went 2.9 in the same draft I referenced 2 posts back. I was happy/relieved that Carson made it to me at 3.5
Click to expand...
Would love to see the results from the first 3 rounds. Trying to figure out how he went at 2.09

 
Deamon said:
Would love to see the results from the first 3 rounds. Trying to figure out how he went at 2.09
Click to expand...
here ya go...

1.1.Christian McCaffrey (Car - RB)

1.2.Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)

1.3.Saquon Barkley (NYG - RB)

1.4.Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)

1.5.Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)

1.6.Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)

1.7.Dalvin Cook (Min - RB)

1.8.Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC - RB)

1.9.Michael Thomas (NO - WR)

1.10.Joe Mixon (Cin - RB)

1.11.Nick Chubb (Cle - RB)

1.12.Davante Adams (GB - WR)

2.1.Aaron Jones (GB - RB)

2.2.Josh Jacobs (LV - RB)

2.3.Julio Jones (Atl - WR)

2.4.Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)

2.5.Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB)

2.6.Kenyan Drake (Ari - RB)

2.7.Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB)

2.8.Tyreek Hill (KC - WR)

2.9.James Conner (Pit - RB)

2.10.DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR)

2.11.George Kittle (SF - TE)

2.12.Chris Godwin (TB - WR)

3.1.Travis Kelce (KC - TE)

3.2.Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)

3.3.Mike Evans (TB - WR)

3.4.Adam Thielen (Min - WR)

3.5.Chris Carson (Sea - RB)

3.6.Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)

3.7.Kenny Golladay (Det - WR)

3.8.Allen Robinson II (Chi - WR)

3.9.Todd Gurley II (Atl - RB)

3.10.DJ Moore (Car - WR)

3.11.Odell Beckham Jr. (Cle - WR)

3.12.David Johnson (Hou - RB)

 
Payne said:
Disagree strongly here. 
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Which part?  His ADP is 3.06 in standard right now (lower in PPR).  He's been there at 3.05 in all 9 of my drafts this year.  I'd say him being 1 spot higher than his ADP in half the leagues is accurate.

 
joey said:
here ya go...

1.1.Christian McCaffrey (Car - RB)

1.2.Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)

1.3.Saquon Barkley (NYG - RB)

1.4.Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)

1.5.Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)

1.6.Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)

1.7.Dalvin Cook (Min - RB)

1.8.Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC - RB)

1.9.Michael Thomas (NO - WR)

1.10.Joe Mixon (Cin - RB)

1.11.Nick Chubb (Cle - RB)

1.12.Davante Adams (GB - WR)

2.1.Aaron Jones (GB - RB)

2.2.Josh Jacobs (LV - RB)

2.3.Julio Jones (Atl - WR)

2.4.Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)

2.5.Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB)

2.6.Kenyan Drake (Ari - RB)

2.7.Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB)

2.8.Tyreek Hill (KC - WR)

2.9.James Conner (Pit - RB)

2.10.DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR)

2.11.George Kittle (SF - TE)

2.12.Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
Click to expand...
Crazy.  That draft isn't even really very wild at all.  Guess the guy who took Mahomes at 1.04 really needed a RB badly though and he for sure was the next best one.  The RB drop off this year continues to amaze me... there's no value in taking a RB in the entire 2nd half of the 2nd round in your above draft.

 
Drafting from the 5 yesterday in a 12 team, full ppr work league with about 1/3 of the league being casual fantasy players:

1 Cook

2 Drake

3 Connor

4 Kupp

5 Ridley

6 Engram

7 D Montgomery

8 Cooks

9 Mattison

10 Sterling S

11 Unicorn

12 John Brown

13 Rothlisberger

14 Drew Lock

15 Snell

16 Stills

17 Robby Anderson

 
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Deamon said:
Crazy.  That draft isn't even really very wild at all.  Guess the guy who took Mahomes at 1.04 really needed a RB badly though and he for sure was the next best one.  The RB drop off this year continues to amaze me... there's no value in taking a RB in the entire 2nd half of the 2nd round in your above draft.
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Yeah. Besides the Kamara and Mahomes outliers (typical in long time work leagues with the variety of owners) the specific order Isn’t that far from adp. At least on a round-by-round basis. I was super happy to have the top 3 rounds fall my way. 
 

and, agreed, that RBs fall off quickly so I wanted to be sure I had 3 when leaving the 5th round. Not super happy that it’s Akers as my 3rd RB but I figure between him and Moss, hopefully one of those rookies gets a shot. 

 
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Deamon said:
Which part?  His ADP is 3.06 in standard right now (lower in PPR).  He's been there at 3.05 in all 9 of my drafts this year.  I'd say him being 1 spot higher than his ADP in half the leagues is accurate.
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That grabbing him at 2.8 is a "reach". No it's not. It depends on how the drafts go. I am finding leagues with solid owners are drafting RB's often and early. IF you like him better than the other RB's available, you take him. 

 
Payne said:
That grabbing him at 2.8 is a "reach". No it's not. It depends on how the drafts go. I am finding leagues with solid owners are drafting RB's often and early. IF you like him better than the other RB's available, you take him. 
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I call drafting a guy a full round of his ADP in round 2 a 'reach'.  No you can't get him at your next pick at 3.05 in all leagues, but you can in most.

EDT:  I'm not saying it's terrible, and could pay off.  Like people who took Cook top 3 last year... was a reach, but it worked out.  I actually love Conner this year... own him in 3 leagues and got him around the 3.05-3.08 spot in all those drafts.  He's my top 3rd round target.  I wouldn't take him at 2.08 though as I'm a big believer in value.

 
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Deamon said:
I call drafting a guy a full round of his ADP in round 2 a 'reach'.  No you can't get him at your next pick at 3.05 in all leagues, but you can in most.
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Well Tomlin just came out and said he will be the bellcow back. So watch the ADP slowly rise if you still have drafts to do.

Good luck

 
Payne said:
Well Tomlin just came out and said he will be the bellcow back. So watch the ADP slowly rise if you still have drafts to do.

Good luck
Click to expand...
Yep, saw that.  His ADP has already jumped from Round 4 to Round 3.  I think he is now cemented in as the clear top RB after the big 14 go.  But I still see him in a tier lower than those guys.  Picking at the end of the 2nd is kinda rough this year as it seems the WR, RB, QB, and TE tiers all break off somewhere around pick 22 (the big 14 rbs, big 4 wrs, big 2 qbs and big 2 te's).

 
Back to the #5 pick...

...Kamara risk seems to be lessening. Contract imminent. 

To me it's between Kamara and Henry at #5. Cook is out between injury history, contract situation, and the need to grab Mattison. 

Think Kamara is going to have a solid floor each week due to receptions, but you know Murray/T. Hill/random TE sweep TDs are going to drive you crazy. Also, you have to draft L. Murray somewhere between pick 100 and 120. You can't screw that up.

Henry IS the focal point of the TN offense. He is getting the ball inside the 5. Period. He may catch more balls. And a bonus...I don't think it's even worth drafting his backup. If Henry goes down, the entire TN offense is down so the hell with it.

Torn between Kamara and Henry right now at 5. Hoping the team at #4 makes my decision easy.

 
kyoun1e said:
Back to the #5 pick...

...Kamara risk seems to be lessening. Contract imminent. 

To me it's between Kamara and Henry at #5. Cook is out between injury history, contract situation, and the need to grab Mattison. 

Think Kamara is going to have a solid floor each week due to receptions, but you know Murray/T. Hill/random TE sweep TDs are going to drive you crazy. Also, you have to draft L. Murray somewhere between pick 100 and 120. You can't screw that up.

Henry IS the focal point of the TN offense. He is getting the ball inside the 5. Period. He may catch more balls. And a bonus...I don't think it's even worth drafting his backup. If Henry goes down, the entire TN offense is down so the hell with it.

Torn between Kamara and Henry right now at 5. Hoping the team at #4 makes my decision easy.
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I’d go Henry for all the reasons you listed. Or maybe Zeke falls to you at 5 like he did in my draft! ;)  

 
I had my draft last night. 12 team PPR. 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE

Took Kamara after CMC, Zeke, Barkley and Cook.

Passed on a RB in round 2 as Julio was sitting there. I was surprised.

Was able to grab Connor in round 3 as Deamon stated. I feel that's a really good starting three.

CMC

Zeke

Barkley

Cook

Kamara

Thomas

Henry

CEH

Jacobs

Ekeler

Adams

Hill

Round 2

Mixon

Kelce

Lamar

Sanders

Drake

Chubb

A Jones

Julio

Mahomes

Kittle

Hopkins

Godwin

Round 3

Carson

Gurley

Evans

Ridley

Connor

 
I went with Henry at 1.05, after the big three and Cook went.  13 teams PPR (1.5 TE), heightened QB scoring.  Kamara slid all the way to 10.  My 2.09 was Godwin (bumped on Evans news) and my 3.05 was Ridley, because Connor went 2.11 and Sanders 2.12.

 
Go DC Yourself said:
I went with Henry at 1.05, after the big three and Cook went.  13 teams PPR (1.5 TE), heightened QB scoring.  Kamara slid all the way to 10.  My 2.09 was Godwin (bumped on Evans news) and my 3.05 was Ridley, because Connor went 2.11 and Sanders 2.12.
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Nice.

Where did Carson go? and who did you end up with at RB2?

 
Go DC Yourself said:
I went with Henry at 1.05, after the big three and Cook went.  13 teams PPR (1.5 TE), heightened QB scoring.  Kamara slid all the way to 10.  My 2.09 was Godwin (bumped on Evans news) and my 3.05 was Ridley, because Connor went 2.11 and Sanders 2.12.
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Kamara to 1.10 and Sanders to 2.12 seems really low. QB's go ahead of them? 

 
Yeah, I personally would’ve gone Carson at 3.5 and grab whatever WR is at 4.8 but if you have Carson and Gurley really closely ranked, and Ridley above the tier of WRs that would be there at 4.8, then it makes sense. 
It's > 50% a crap shoot so what does any of us really know :)  

 
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