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Snorkelson

DraftKings week 1

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Let’s fire it up

@KarmaPolice @BassNBrew @Zyphros @Raging weasel @TwinTurbo 

I feel like week 1 is going to be crazy. Guys getting cut/moving around, surprise starters, crazy price options, and a bunch of questions no one can answer. I put in a placeholder and did a best ball draft (I don’t think I’ll do well there, I had a poor draft) but haven’t really done a deep dive yet. 

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

Let’s fire it up

@KarmaPolice @BassNBrew @Zyphros @Raging weasel @TwinTurbo 

I feel like week 1 is going to be crazy. Guys getting cut/moving around, surprise starters, crazy price options, and a bunch of questions no one can answer. I put in a placeholder and did a best ball draft (I don’t think I’ll do well there, I had a poor draft) but haven’t really done a deep dive yet. 

0 clue about football anymore, so probably won't do much besides throw a WTF LU together every once in awhile.    I play more MLB dfs than anything.  

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Yeah,with no pre season week 1 is going to be crazy. Won a $5 entry on DK so have a lineup there and a placeholder on FD too.

Could just be the homer in me but like the prices on the Stafford/Golladay stack.

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My first thought lineup for cash is

Minshew

Ekeler, Gurley, Ingram

Thielen, OBJ, McLaurin

Gesicki

Lions

My main thoughts for this were that it's a bit too safe but I figure I can use Gurley and Ingram first few weeks while they're undervalued and question marks and I can fade them later in the year.  Especially Ingram who I expect Dobbins to take over by week ~6 or something.  But for now Ingram has the workload.  Gurley will probably maintain it if he doesn't have knee issues.  

Also have 4 placeholder lineups with different stacks for quarter arcade GPP's (usually the only tournament I'll play, everything else is cash).  The 4 stacks I mainly have are Carr/Jacobs/Ruggs - McCaffrey on counter stack.  

Ryan/Ridly/Hurst - no counter stack here since this is already spending up.  Possibly Olsen

Cam/Damien Harris (easy pivot to Sony)/Edelman - Possibly run it back with Preston Williams or Breida

Rivers/Taylor/Hilton - Run it back with Chark.  I feel like this is my favorite with a big "if".  That being IF Taylor gets the workload it could be lower owned and big.  

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Thanks for popping in fellas. $5 millionaire maker lineups (made 2)

wilson

jacobs

gurley

Chris thompson

metcalf

DJax

scotty miller

kittle

eagles

 

stafford

Cmc

mostert

gurley

kenny g

Robby anderson

scotty miller

Hayden hurst

det

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I have to figure out if miller or Watson is the wr3 in Tampa, both having outstanding camps and should be running free while teams focus on Godwin/evans/tes.

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I have to figure out if miller or Watson is the wr3 in Tampa, both having outstanding camps and should be running free while teams focus on Godwin/evans/tes.

I have to think it's Miller but that's a total guess.  I like Watson the player more for sure though.  

Decided to enter the $5 milly as well because why not?

Minshew

Gurley, McCaffrey, Thompson

Shenault, Parris Campbell, Metcalf

Kittle

Panthers

Saw you go with Thompson/Metcalf/Gurley/Kittle as well Snorkelson and thought this would be an interesting pivot off what you kind of came up with.  

Multiple stacks at every spot seems like an odd play.  Got the typical QB/RB/WR stack, running it back with an opposing WR in Campbell.  Got Gurley on what I see as a ton of opportunity and hopefully ahead the whole game, Metcalf on the throw from behind team.  Or if it's just a high total game and shootout that should work too for both.  And then the RB/Defense stack.  Saved a ton of money doing this which allows Kittle, I think it'll be lower owned because who wants to pay for TE right?  Banking on the Arizona defense doing what they did last year against TE.  It was an automatic play.  That's my reasoning at least for it all. Probably just wasting $5 though ha. 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

I have to think it's Miller but that's a total guess.  I like Watson the player more for sure though.  

Decided to enter the $5 milly as well because why not?

Minshew

Gurley, McCaffrey, Thompson

Shenault, Parris Campbell, Metcalf

Kittle

Panthers

Saw you go with Thompson/Metcalf/Gurley/Kittle as well Snorkelson and thought this would be an interesting pivot off what you kind of came up with.  

Multiple stacks at every spot seems like an odd play.  Got the typical QB/RB/WR stack, running it back with an opposing WR in Campbell.  Got Gurley on what I see as a ton of opportunity and hopefully ahead the whole game, Metcalf on the throw from behind team.  Or if it's just a high total game and shootout that should work too for both.  And then the RB/Defense stack.  Saved a ton of money doing this which allows Kittle, I think it'll be lower owned because who wants to pay for TE right?  Banking on the Arizona defense doing what they did last year against TE.  It was an automatic play.  That's my reasoning at least for it all. Probably just wasting $5 though ha. 

I might get off Thompson, sounds like he’ll have 3rd downs but the early carries split between 2 other backs. I think Gibson is the same price though so I think that’s a solid swap.

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On 9/5/2020 at 10:27 AM, Raging weasel said:

Yeah,with no pre season week 1 is going to be crazy. Won a $5 entry on DK so have a lineup there and a placeholder on FD too.

Could just be the homer in me but like the prices on the Stafford/Golladay stack.

Stafford and golladay are both pretty cheap imo. 

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Is Draftings  siphoning off 19% like Fanduel?  I think I'll just invest my coin in DKNG stock this week.

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On 9/5/2020 at 5:54 PM, Zyphros said:

My first thought lineup for cash is

Minshew

Ekeler, Gurley, Ingram

Thielen, OBJ, McLaurin

Gesicki

Lions

Adjusting my cash lineup a bit

Cousins

Ekeler, Dalvin, Ingram

Calvin Ridley, OBJ, McLaurin

Doyle

Lions

Gurley makes me a bit more nervous now, just wondering what his role is going to be out of the gate.  Same with Thielen as the #1.  Pivoting for the same games, ATL/SEA and GB/MIN because of high total just the safer player IMO with Dalvin and Ridley.  

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In what percentage of lineups are you using A. Gibson WAS RB?  He's expected to be at ~40% of DK lineups.  He's currently in ~30% of my lineups but that feels like too much for some reason.  I get the appeal since he's only $4000 but to get to 4X value he needs 110 yards combined yards and 5 receptions.  Are we sure he's going to be used that much in his first NFL game without any preseason?  And WAS has said they are going to use a committee approach this week as well.

Thoughts?

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5 hours ago, Steeler said:

In what percentage of lineups are you using A. Gibson WAS RB?  He's expected to be at ~40% of DK lineups.  He's currently in ~30% of my lineups but that feels like too much for some reason.  I get the appeal since he's only $4000 but to get to 4X value he needs 110 yards combined yards and 5 receptions.  Are we sure he's going to be used that much in his first NFL game without any preseason?  And WAS has said they are going to use a committee approach this week as well.

Thoughts?

My feeling on any of the rookie running backs is the same.  Proceed with caution.

No preseason games.  No real workups.  I see a lot more time shares in backfields this week as guys may not truly be in game shape yet.  I don't think you are going to see too many running backs go out there and get 25-30 touches right away, with the exception of the elites who have been doing it year after year.

I think with rookies, you will see them eased in a bit more.  Love plays like Marlon Mack and to a lesser extent Malcolm Brown this week.  I also have Darrell Williams in some Showdowns tonight because of what I posted above.

Kareem Hunt a couple years ago proved Andy Reid doesn't have a problem giving a rookie RB a huge workload in week 1, but this year feels a little different.  I think CEH and Dar Williams split close to 50-50 tonight, with maybe a slight edge to CEH.

I see Mack getting more of the carries than Taylor in Indy this Sunday.  I see more of a RBBC or "hot hand" approach in Washington.

Even for a team like Seattle, I think we will see closer to a 50-50 split with Carson and Hyde.  

Granted, game script is going to alter some of this based on the flow of the game, but my inclinations are to stay away from rookie RBs on DK this week.

But take my thoughts with caution.  I re-deposit almost every year. 

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5 hours ago, Steeler said:

In what percentage of lineups are you using A. Gibson WAS RB?  He's expected to be at ~40% of DK lineups.  He's currently in ~30% of my lineups but that feels like too much for some reason.  I get the appeal since he's only $4000 but to get to 4X value he needs 110 yards combined yards and 5 receptions.  Are we sure he's going to be used that much in his first NFL game without any preseason?  And WAS has said they are going to use a committee approach this week as well.

Thoughts?

Oh, and to answer your question directly.   100% fade on AG

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8 hours ago, Steeler said:

In what percentage of lineups are you using A. Gibson WAS RB?  He's expected to be at ~40% of DK lineups.  He's currently in ~30% of my lineups but that feels like too much for some reason.  I get the appeal since he's only $4000 but to get to 4X value he needs 110 yards combined yards and 5 receptions.  Are we sure he's going to be used that much in his first NFL game without any preseason?  And WAS has said they are going to use a committee approach this week as well.

Thoughts?

I’m steering clear. Rather put in a cheap MVS. Caesar is right; expect some touches to be spread out in rookie situations. I’m also rolling out Williams in my showdowns. 

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What’s with all the noobs posting league openings and trade advice in the dfs forum?

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On 9/9/2020 at 12:27 AM, BassNBrew said:

Is Draftings  siphoning off 19% like Fanduel?  I think I'll just invest my coin in DKNG stock this week.

Bump????

Interestingly enough, the DKNG stock I added is up 19% since I posted this.  Keeping paying that VIG.

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17 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Bump????

Interestingly enough, the DKNG stock I added is up 19% since I posted this.  Keeping paying that VIG.

own the stock as well. It's been a nice run.

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9 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

So what is the tournament vig on draft kings?

10% unless I’m stupid (50/50 chance here)

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4 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

10% unless I’m stupid (50/50 chance here)

Look at the big Sunday tournament please.  How much to entry, how many entries, and much is being paid out.

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33 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Look at the big Sunday tournament please.  How much to entry, how many entries, and much is being paid out.

1.195 million/$5/$5 million payout so yeah for that one it looks like you’re right. But other tournaments is the normal 10% rake it looks like. 

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Alright - I got sucked in, but know zip about this now.    I was listening to a pod this morning that said with the pricing and the unknowns, they were thinking of going 4WRs for cash and gpps.  

I have a couple darts in the millionaire maker, so trying to find a few really low owned players to through in there.  

ETA:  the pod also said to either pay up for Lamar or go down into the 5K range for QB in cash this week.  :shrug:

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Looking at stuff quick, like usual I think a decent spot to get some gpp leverage is RBs.  Guys I wrote down that look to be under 10% owned that could have some pop:

Bell, Chubb, A.Jones, White, Carson, Gurley, Cook.   

Bell might be my favorite of the bunch if the pod was right and he is looking to be under 2% owned.  Seems like the popular build is CMC, Jacobs, Scott, Gibson, Kamara, Ekeler.   

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6 hours ago, cv1014 said:

Sorry for the noob question. Where can I find the podcast?

Sorry about the no reply - I was at work.  

I have RG premium access for the month, and was listening to one of their pods.   I try not to be too specific sometimes since it's behind a paywall and it's a competing site for FBGs.  

The LU it spit out at me that I used as my cash LU put up 165.  As usual, my gpp ideas were pretty much junk.  Too bad I didn't go with the other idea I had of the GB/Minn game stacks instead of the TB/NO game.  

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Tough start so far. My highest score was 189 with the Ravens stack and Adams. But not enough winning entries yet. 

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100% win on cash, 100% lose on GPP's per usual ha.  Also lost the majority of my sportsbook bets other than the night game which broke me even basically.  On to week 2.  

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

100% win on cash, 100% lose on GPP's per usual ha.  Also lost the majority of my sportsbook bets other than the night game which broke me even basically.  On to week 2.  

Yes GPP results were not great. Tried every trick in the book, nothing worked this week. I don't see any pros in the top standings either, at least none that I recognize. 

MNF is not going well either. Too much exposure to Conner in the first game tonight and not enough Fant in game 2. It just sucks to set all your lineups on fire before the first quarter even ends. 

Week 2 will be better. 

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I don't do many gpps, but when I do - I try to mostly stick to my guns and basically focus on one stack for a couple entries.  

Good thing I got sucked in to my love for Brady this week.  The other stack I had written down? Rodgers/Cook/Adams/Theilen/Lazard.   :lol: 

 

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