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FatNate

Week 3 FanDuel

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I will post the $5 league link tomorrow for anyone interested.  Main slate.  Top three get paid.  15-person.

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31 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I will post the $5 league link tomorrow for anyone interested.  Main slate.  Top three get paid.  15-person.

I will probably join you guys this week.  I was going to last week, and forgot.  

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I was bored last night and wanted to dig through stuff before I started listening to pods or looking at ownership.   Just like last week, I looked at the Vegas #s and wrote down the teams projected with the most points, then I just started digging through opportunites/g, market share %, etc..   For RB I ended up writing down 12 names:

Henry, Zeke, Sanders, Carson, Drake, Taylor, Gurley, Ekeler, Chubb, Connor, Fournette.  

There are some injury rbs like McKinnon, Davis, D.Lewis, but they were on lower total teams so they weren't on the initial list.  

 

One thing that struck me was just how few Rbs are seeing over 20 opportunities a game and/or seeing a majority of the % of rushes for their team.  If I just used the names that in either week have seen 60%+ of the rushes it's:  Carson, Drake, Sanders, Taylor, Zeke, Henry, Connor.    

I THINK it will be back to Zeke and Taylor as chalk then with being big home favorites Chubb and Sanders?  

Gpps I think Henry will be in people's dog house after last week, and I think Kelly is an interesting name.  Looking at usage, him and Ekeler are splitting snaps, but what I found interesting is his rush % went from 32 to 56% and his opps went from 12 to 26 from Week 1 to Week 2.   Carolina sucks, so Kelly might be a good FD play if the Chargers are supposed to be ahead a lot.  Only 5.9K and would be a pivot if McKinnon or M.Davis get some ownership.  

 

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For WRs, again I looked at team target % and team % of air yards.   There was a drop off after 19% for each stat.  

Short list of players with BOTH 25+% targets and 25+% air yards:

Edelman, Hopkins, Ridley, Diggs, Cooper, Lockett, Dionte Johnson

 

The rest = with both 19+% targets and 19+% airyards:

Metcalf, Deshaun Jackson, Evans, Mike Wiliams, J.Brown, Amendola, Humphries, K.Allen, OBJ, Hilton, Marvin Jones, N.Harry, R.Gage.  

 

That's a long list of names and a lot of different price ranges.  Again, those were just the high total teams.  I wrote down a few more names from the lower total teams that could be interesting come backs for stacking:

These 5 were in the 25/25 group:  Thielen, DJ Moore, A.Robinson, McLaurin, R.Anderson

Others for the 19/19 group:  Woods, AJ Green, Jeudy, Kupp, Slayton

 

It's a ton of names, but stacks start standing out.  Example would be Ryan - Ridley and then bring back with A.Robinson.  

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TE list is ridiculous this week.  I wrote down TEs that were 10%+ targets and 10%+ air yards, but that was 10 names:

Alie-Cox, Henry, Goedert, Ertz, Hock, Firkser, J.Smith, Schultz, Hooper, Hurst.  

 

There were some high volume guys on lower total teams too for an odd comeback gpp option:

Waller, Thomas, Fant, Higbee, Engram.  

 

With that many names, this will be a spot that I look to again for ownership % and going from there.  Or with guys like Schultz it's a good way to get into the high total game.  

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QBs I am mostly going to stick with the core I listed before, or just throw in the guy associated with my stack.  

One thing that did surprise me a little is just how much a couple of the running guys are throwing too.  Of the top projected teams on the slate, the top 5 guys with the most pass attempts/g are:  Ryan, Wentz, Dak, Allen, Murray and those 5 were over 40/g.   Very hard not to look at Allen and Murray for cash each week because of the rushing floor too.  

The other surprise was how little Russ throws.  I think of the 13 teams I narrowed in on, he threw it the 2nd fewest times?  He must have an 85% completion on the year or something.  

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Early gpp placeholder:

Murray - Zeke/Taylor/Kelly - Hopkins/Metcalf/N.Harry - Hockenson - Az.  

 

Don't like the Det players as come backs quite as much as I liked trying McLaurin and Thomas in the Az game last week.  I think Golladay is supposed to be back too, muddying the waters even more.  I think I like something on the lines of Ryan - Ridley + A.Rob or Allen - Diggs + Woods or Higbee a little more, but I am going to stare at this and think about it more.   I will also be playing a bit of that Seattle/Dallas game too, but was just looking at what a LU might be without a stack from that game.  

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KarmaPolice - Love the research and details.  Thanks for sharing.  I like how your strategy helps shrink the player pool.

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6 hours ago, FatNate said:

KarmaPolice - Love the research and details.  Thanks for sharing.  I like how your strategy helps shrink the player pool.

Thanks.  

Not sure if my babbling is helping anybody else.   I was bored last night, and just wanted to talk out loud about what I am trying to do to narrow my players a bit.  Tonight I was going to look at RZ stats to see if I can narrow down the pool a little more, but I am also waiting to see what ownerships are at.  

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9 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Not sure if my babbling is helping anybody else.

I love it!  Keep it coming!

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2 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I love it!  Keep it coming!

I looked at RZ looks and compared it to my list.   Didn't get a lot out of it as far as WRs and TEs go because everybody seems to be in that 1-2 RZ look range, which is a bit why those positions are less predictable.     A few that did stand out were the Atl guys of Ridley and Gage - I don't have my list here, but I think Ridley has gotten 6 or more in 2 games, and Gage has gotten 4.   Another name that keeps sticking in the back of my head is N'Keal Harry.   Could be the Pats homer in me, but I was surprised to see him popping up on both lists a bit.  

I will look at what I wrote down for RBs and post tonight- I am sure the top wasn't a surprise with Zeke and Henry both getting 14 looks.  

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Read an article yesterday about choosing gpps.  The suggestion was to look for ones that:  a) are flatter payouts where 10th place is 10% of what the winner gets, and b) ones that pay out at least 20% of totals entries.    It's eye opening how few gpps fit that description for stuff $5 and under.  

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KP - Did I see you are a New England guy?

They often do a good job shutting down the best options the other team has.  The Raiders are so thin at WR.  Will Jacobs still get his?  Can the Pats cover Waller?

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Read an article yesterday about choosing gpps.  The suggestion was to look for ones that:  a) are flatter payouts where 10th place is 10% of what the winner gets, and b) ones that pay out at least 20% of totals entries.    It's eye opening how few gpps fit that description for stuff $5 and under.  

The way the world works -- the poor (in this case cheap GPPs) always get taken advantage!  I play a few head to heads each week.  The small private contest that I have been posting here.  Other than that I usually take, what I think is my best lineup, and enter it in a few smaller field GPPS.  Otherwise, I only play the milly maker each week.

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Do we trust McKinnon this week?  Mostert and Coleman out.  Priced at $5700.  Playing a soft NYG defense.  SF also shorthanded on offense, so running even more than they already do, might be a good game plan.  I think I am sold.

Add in Sanders, against a very poor Bengals rush defense.  Priced at $7400.  Again, limited offensive weapons giving him possibly more touches.  Checks most of the boxes for me.

Sprinkle in some Taylor, Henry, and Elliott for the flex.

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Harry and AJ Green seem like good deals this week.  I also like Metcalf and Lockett, but it is hard for me to figure out which one I should value over the other.  With little to no fans in the stands are road games still worth three points to Vegas?  I bring it up because Cooper's home and road splits are very different.  At this point, I still like him this week.  Add in Moore, Robinson, and Ridley to my WR player pool, also.

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Lots of $5000-$6000 TE, that I think are good options this week.  I like Ertz this week, but I am not sure I have enough left for him.  I think Thomas goes under-owned this week, after a good week one and below expectations week two.  I am not chasing Smith, Engram, or Higbee this week.  My player pool includes Hurst, Henry, Goerdert, Hockerson, and Alie-Cox.

Edited by FatNate

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What is loaded right now:

Murray - Taylor - McKinnon - Hopkins - Moore - Edelman - Goerdert - Sanders - Colts

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3 hours ago, FatNate said:

Do we trust McKinnon this week?  Mostert and Coleman out.  Priced at $5700.  Playing a soft NYG defense.  SF also shorthanded on offense, so running even more than they already do, might be a good game plan.  I think I am sold.

Add in Sanders, against a very poor Bengals rush defense.  Priced at $7400.  Again, limited offensive weapons giving him possibly more touches.  Checks most of the boxes for me.

Sprinkle in some Taylor, Henry, and Elliott for the flex.

Looks like we are mostly on the same guys, which is good.  

The only reason I didn't have McKinnon in the post is because SF, despite being favored, doesn't have a high implied total.  I have him down in my "other" pile though.  I ran an optimal lu last night on RG and it did have him in there, so I guess it might be a popular option.  

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3 hours ago, FatNate said:

The way the world works -- the poor (in this case cheap GPPs) always get taken advantage!  I play a few head to heads each week.  The small private contest that I have been posting here.  Other than that I usually take, what I think is my best lineup, and enter it in a few smaller field GPPS.  Otherwise, I only play the milly maker each week.

0 clue how much you spend or your experience level.  I wrote down the $3, 3 max contest.  That paid out 25%+ of entries.  There was also a $2 SE.    There was also a $2 10 max, bit I think that was beginner only.  

Otherwise, everything seemed to be in the 17-19% paid out range.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

0 clue how much you spend or your experience level.  I wrote down the $3, 3 max contest.  That paid out 25%+ of entries.  There was also a $2 SE.    There was also a $2 10 max, bit I think that was beginner only.  

Otherwise, everything seemed to be in the 17-19% paid out range.  

$7 5-max comes in over 20%. $9 300k Rush also over 20%. 

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1 hour ago, FatNate said:

$7 5-max comes in over 20%. $9 300k Rush also over 20%. 

A little rich for me right now, but maybe if I build up the bankroll a little.  

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@KarmaPolice First of all, thanks for adding your insights...always interesting to read.  I am much more of an "eye test" or "from the gut" type DFS player.  I'll tinker around with the line up builders for a little while, but I don't typically dive deep into the stats.  Where are you mining your share % data from?

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5 minutes ago, Galileo said:

@KarmaPolice First of all, thanks for adding your insights...always interesting to read.  I am much more of an "eye test" or "from the gut" type DFS player.  I'll tinker around with the line up builders for a little while, but I don't typically dive deep into the stats.  Where are you mining your share % data from?

From RG, but pretty sure their stats come from football outsiders (dvoa, adjusted line stats, etc) and sites like airyards.com (target share, etc).  

We all have our process, and I actually like looking at stats and such.  It's a big reason I started getting onto mlb dfs too. 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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I know this is the FD thread, but I was looking at gpps on DK using the criteria I posted above from the article and there are a lot more over there.   I looked at a handful of $3 and under gpps, and there were some that have 25% paid out up to 32.5% paid out.  

ETA:  It might be the case where I do different % for the sites - ie on FD, more 80% cash and 20% gpp, and DK more 50/50.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I usually play 75% cash and 25% gpp each week. The cash typically pays for the gpps and is intended to build a small weekly profit. Gpp cashes just boosts that. I do the same on DK. Their cash game players seem to play looser,(games at $10 or less from what i've noticed), more of a GPP style, which is odd, but satisfying for grinding.

 

Also, HI EVERYONE!!!! first post of the new season!! hope everyones made a little money so far and avoided the injury bug in your season long / best ball leagues!!!

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My new strategy (tried last week, did only $0.05 150 entries GPP) netted me a small loss ($7.50 in, $6.83 out). I like the style, so I'm trying again this week.

Style very similar to KarmaPolice: I start with the 6 QBs from the supposed highest scoring teams at around 12% exposure, then their 6 opposing QBs at around 5%. Stack them with an array of WRs/TEs (except Cam, who doesn't throw that much near the goal line (yet)). Then take the RBs with an average weekly attempts + targets >= 20 at around 20-25% exposure, and the rest of the RBs at around max 5% exposure to fill rosters via the FBG lineup builder. Cap the defenses at 50% max exposure and let the builder do it's thing. Then I comb through the lineups and reduce the over-exposures at WR and TE to cap around 20% and there it is.

 

Thoughts? This is my first year attempting the max lineups big GPP thing. Once I get a roster strategy down, I'll start to enter cash games to help support the GPP thing...

Edited by Solomon Grundy

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Sigh.  Seems like every week is a choice of Zeke or Henry for cash.  Both 80%+ carries, both tied for most RZ touches.   Seems like for cash I have Henry, Zeke, Sanders at the top.  Easily fit those 3 in, but then Hopkins is a no-go.  Taylor is so cheap that I have a hard time not coming off one of the higher priced guys and going with him instead.  So then Sanders, Taylor, and Zeke or Henry.   Using my lists from above:

With all 3:   Allen - Zeke/Henry/Sanders - Metcalf/Gage/D.Johnson - Thomas - TB

With Taylor instead:  Cam - Zeke/Sanders/Taylor - Hopkins/Metcalf/Gage - Thomas - AZ    or Murray/Henry instead of Cam/Zeke?  

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Favorite probably <5% gpps plays from my lists:

QB:  probably going chalk, but if Golladay is back I might throw out a Stafford LU, and I might take a Ryan shot.   Mostly will be Russ/Dak/Allen/Murray/Cam though, and will probably narrow that down to 3 QBs.  (Doing 10 $1 LUs for gpp)

RB:  Kelly keeps catching my attention here for FD.  I might take a shot on Fournette in one LU too.  

WRs:  Honestly, here is where I am liking a lot of low owned guys this week, allowing for chalkier plays at QB and RB.  Diggs, D.Jax, J.Brown, Marvin, R.Anderson, McLaurin, Slayton, Jeudy all were on my lists of good target % and good air % and all look to be really low owned.   (I like to look at WRs with decent aDOTs for gpps, especially for WR3s.) 

TE:  My favorite might be Henry.  I also wrote down Schultz, Hooper, Hockenson, and Fant.  

DT: Pitts, Giants, AZ, Cinci.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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Oh yeah, I think Carson is a great gpp play too, especially on DK.  

I like the idea of instead of doing Russ + both WRs, doing Russ/Carson/WR if you really want to hammer that game. 

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Sigh.  Seems like every week is a choice of Zeke or Henry for cash.  Both 80%+ carries, both tied for most RZ touches.   Seems like for cash I have Henry, Zeke, Sanders at the top.  Easily fit those 3 in, but then Hopkins is a no-go.  Taylor is so cheap that I have a hard time not coming off one of the higher priced guys and going with him instead.  So then Sanders, Taylor, and Zeke or Henry.   Using my lists from above:

With all 3:   Allen - Zeke/Henry/Sanders - Metcalf/Gage/D.Johnson - Thomas - TB

With Taylor instead:  Cam - Zeke/Sanders/Taylor - Hopkins/Metcalf/Gage - Thomas - AZ    or Murray/Henry instead of Cam/Zeke?  

I like both lineups. 

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18 hours ago, jerseys finest said:

I usually play 75% cash and 25% gpp each week. The cash typically pays for the gpps and is intended to build a small weekly profit. Gpp cashes just boosts that. I do the same on DK. Their cash game players seem to play looser,(games at $10 or less from what i've noticed), more of a GPP style, which is odd, but satisfying for grinding.

 

Also, HI EVERYONE!!!! first post of the new season!! hope everyones made a little money so far and avoided the injury bug in your season long / best ball leagues!!!

Do you find that the pay line in cash games is virtually the same as GPP pay line?

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4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

My new strategy (tried last week, did only $0.05 150 entries GPP) netted me a small loss ($7.50 in, $6.83 out). I like the style, so I'm trying again this week.

Style very similar to KarmaPolice: I start with the 6 QBs from the supposed highest scoring teams at around 12% exposure, then their 6 opposing QBs at around 5%. Stack them with an array of WRs/TEs (except Cam, who doesn't throw that much near the goal line (yet)). Then take the RBs with an average weekly attempts + targets >= 20 at around 20-25% exposure, and the rest of the RBs at around max 5% exposure to fill rosters via the FBG lineup builder. Cap the defenses at 50% max exposure and let the builder do it's thing. Then I comb through the lineups and reduce the over-exposures at WR and TE to cap around 20% and there it is.

 

Thoughts? This is my first year attempting the max lineups big GPP thing. Once I get a roster strategy down, I'll start to enter cash games to help support the GPP thing...

Finding a system you like is important.  I enjoy the numbers, but don’t have time to dig in to deep. 

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I, like everyone else, love the higher price QBs this week.  I will use a couple, especially in my more cash/safe lineups.  I will be overweight on the following low owned QBs:  Burrow (with AJ), Stafford (with Golladay and Hockerson), Trubisky (with Robinson), Ryan (with Ridley and Gage), and Bridgewater (with Moore and Samuel).  And I am sticking with Brady for another week -- I believe a big game is coming (hopefully this week)!

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WR Hamler at $4500 at 1% ownership.

I have seen it a few places -- this is not an original thought.

Very risky play,  but if he sneaks into the endzone (which is hard to predict and unlikely -- but if he does...) with 5 catches for 65 yards, then it pays off.

Assuming we selected the right guys to go with him, could make things interesting.

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I will be using something like this on Sunday:

Brady - Henry - Elliott - Godwin - Evans- Hambler - Goerdert - McKinnon - Eagles

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40 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I will be using something like this on Sunday:

Brady - Henry - Elliott - Godwin - Evans- Hambler - Goerdert - McKinnon - Eagles

On FD I think I have 5 gpps with a core rb trio of Sanders/Drake/Taylor.  Cheap, a lot of upside, gets off chalk a tiny bit, and basically lets me do any stack I want.  

 

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Moss out.  Singletary should get most of the work.

With all the value at RB, does it really make sense to go cheap at QB?

I am starting to question my own strategy.

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

On FD I think I have 5 gpps with a core rb trio of Sanders/Drake/Taylor.  Cheap, a lot of upside, gets off chalk a tiny bit, and basically lets me do any stack I want.  

 

I still trying to figure out Drake.  He seems to rate as top three RB on RG, but FFG has him more like a top ten RB.  Add in how much I like Sanders, Taylor, and McKinnon I have not been able to use him much.

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I usually like to go cheap at QB.  Stack it with a WR.  Spend up on RB and use three.  Moderate to cheap TE.  Then, hope to get lucky with the rest of the WR spots with what is left over.  I am horrible at choosing the right WRs, so this might be a tough week for me.

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14 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I still trying to figure out Drake.  He seems to rate as top three RB on RG, but FFG has him more like a top ten RB.  Add in how much I like Sanders, Taylor, and McKinnon I have not been able to use him much.

McKinnon is probably the one that bites me in the ###.  I just don't trust SF to give him the workload 100%.  I keep hearing Wilson's name in there, and I've been done this road before with SF has injuries and thinking Coleman will be the guy just to have him dud out.   That said, he is all over the optimals and cash builds I've seen so :shrug:

Drake I like on FD, but it does seem like he will be popular.  At first I thought he would be a way to leverage off Murray/Hopkins chalk, but that doesn't seem to be the case.  

What I was trying to do this week is start with something I thought had a lot of gpp upside, like:

Murray - Sanders/Taylor/Drake - Hopkins/McLaurin/Gallup - Goedert - Indy.   

Then do a handful of lineups (like I said, I think I have 5), that are plays on that but have a very low owned pivot or two and/or is stacking multiple games.  

Example:

Murray - Sanders/Taylor/K.Hunt  - Hopkins/Metcalf/Lamb - Henry - Pitts

Hunt with miniscule ownership, same with Henry.   But still get to keep chalk pieces and a stack in each of the big total games.  

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What am I missing this week?

Everyone loves Elliott this week, but it seems Henry will owned at less than 20%.

Both have good matchups.  Both will get similar touches.

Elliott can not sustain 1.5 TDs per week, no more than Henry can keep producing 0 TDs per week.

The Cowboys offense is more dynamic, which can help and hurt.

The Titans offense is less formidable, which can help and hurt.

Just like last week, I will have more Henry than Elliott.

Hoping I can use that cost savings to invest in a winner.

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18 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I usually like to go cheap at QB.  Stack it with a WR.  Spend up on RB and use three.  Moderate to cheap TE.  Then, hope to get lucky with the rest of the WR spots with what is left over.  I am horrible at choosing the right WRs, so this might be a tough week for me.

I pretty much use this strategy too. Unfortunately, my cheap 2nd and 3rd WRs and cheap TE haven't hit for me all at the same time. Hard to cash if 1 or 2 get 5 points or less.

If Adams and Julio don't play this week MVS and Gage probably chalk for cash lineups.

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27 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I usually like to go cheap at QB.  Stack it with a WR.  Spend up on RB and use three.  Moderate to cheap TE.  Then, hope to get lucky with the rest of the WR spots with what is left over.  I am horrible at choosing the right WRs, so this might be a tough week for me.

I wouldn't beat yourself up about WRs too much.  They are tough.   Not sure we can do much more than look at stuff like targets, teams that pass a lot and could be in a shootout, and for FD WRs that have good aDOTs.     I like about 4-5 from each salary range.   

I keep going back to a pod I heard awhile ago when I struggle with LUs and WRs.  Especially on FD - if you don't think the player you have in there has a shot at 20-25 points, don't have him in there (using the thought that you will probably need 200pts from your lineup to take down a gpp).   I haven't had much luck when I try for the dirt cheap WRs myself.  Probably mostly because a) chances are, they aren't the type of player that is going to go off for 5-110-2tds that you would need in gpps and b) to get them I am probably paying way up at WR which again is risky b/c of the position and that stud could dud out.   So taking into account this week - for 13K I could have Hopkins and Hambler.  Also for 13K I could have Dionte and McLaurin.  Or Edelman and Metcalf.  Etc.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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