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Mystery Achiever

Another Election Poll-- Prediction+Preference+Confidence

Another Election Poll --- Prediction + Preference + Confidence  

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Joe has polled on these individually. I wanted to try to look at how they interact.
As I said in another thread, I think it is difficult to fully divorce your preferences from predictions.
I also know some Clinton voters with "PTSD" that makes them afraid to even consider the possibility of a Biden win.

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Not sure about your cutoff between "not super" and "pretty"......but I'm about 70% confident that Biden will win. And I voted for him.

I do think that there's a greater likelihood of a small Trump victory than a small Biden victory. In other words, I think Biden either wins big or he doesn't win at all.

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Maybe should have left off "pretty", but this is more about "feelings"  than quantifying. For your description, I'd have gone with 
I'm not super-confident, but think Trump is more likely to win, but am not voting for him

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I'm pretty confident that Biden will win and am voting for him.  However, if Trump was up in the polls as much as Biden is, I would be pretty confident Trump would win.

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3 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Very confident that Biden will win, and I voted for him.

I can't get to very yet....but everything else, yeah.

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4 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

I'm pretty confident that Biden will win and am voting for him.  However, if Trump was up in the polls as much as Biden is, I would be pretty confident Trump would win.

This is a great post - exactly how I feel.  Maybe I'm foolish to trust in the polls so much but to be honest, I don't think everybody's anecdotal evidence is anywhere close to being better.

Edited by AAABatteries

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2 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

This is a great post - exactly how I feel.  Maybe I'm foolish to trust in the polls so much but to be honest, I don't think everybody's anecdotal evidence is anywhere close to being better.

The anecdotal evidence is substantially less reliable. 

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8 hours ago, wikkidpissah said:

voted Bull Moose. can't see the incumbent cracking 40%, by much anyways

Where have you gone, Teddy Roosevelt?

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I think we're in the Mike Tyson zone on this. Meaning I wouldn't be surprised by virtually anything that happens.

I do know that 2016 taught me to put very little faith in polls when Trump is involved. So we'll see. 

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Many pollsters now include education weighting - along with the other demographic weights they used to incorporate - to their sampling. I expect more accurate polls this go 'round.

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12 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

I think we're in the Mike Tyson zone on this. Meaning I wouldn't be surprised by virtually anything that happens.

I do know that 2016 taught me to put very little faith in polls when Trump is involved. So we'll see. 

I get your point and from a certainty perspective, I’m right there with you.  But it will be very shocking (to me at least) if Trump wins big.  For two reasons - 1. it would mean that these polls are virtually meaningless and 2. It would indicate to me that there’s a lot more folks out there that actually like what happened the last four year.  

Edited by AAABatteries

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11 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Where have you gone, Teddy Roosevelt?

The nation turns its lonely eyes to you...

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12 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

I think we're in the Mike Tyson zone on this. Meaning I wouldn't be surprised by virtually anything that happens.

I do know that 2016 taught me to put very little faith in polls when Trump is involved. So we'll see. 

Data modeling is not a perfect science, but it isn't supposed to be. It's supposed to be probability based. If there is a flaw then data scientists adjust to make it more reliable. It still won't be perfect, but again - it isn't supposed to be.

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Observations with 73 votes in:

Most Biden voters think he will win, pretty evenly split between  pretty confident and less so.
Trump voters more split on whether their candidate will win, but am not sure how even that is because I didn't include a way to confirm that people saying they aren't voting for Biden are all voting for Trump vs other/leave blank/stay home. Among those who do think he'll win, almost all are pretty confident.

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17 hours ago, hagmania said:

Many pollsters now include education weighting - along with the other demographic weights they used to incorporate - to their sampling. I expect more accurate polls this go 'round.

I have a suspicion that the pollsters have overcompensated their weighting to favor Trump. I think this is going to be a massive blowout in favor of Biden and many down ticket candidates.

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17 hours ago, hagmania said:

Many pollsters now include education weighting - along with the other demographic weights they used to incorporate - to their sampling. I expect more accurate polls this go 'round.

I expect the polls to be even less accurate than they were in 2016. I suspect that the pollsters have overcompensated for their 2016 errors, and they are assuming that the electorate will look very similar to how it looked in 2016. But my spidey sense tells me that the pollsters are underestimating the number of Democrats who will be voting in 2020 but had sat out in 2016, and they are underestimating the number of 2016 Trump voters who will be sitting out 2020 or flipping to Biden.

Basically, I think the 2020 electorate will look like what we thought 2016 would look like.

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Finally voted for Jorgensen, pretty confident Biden will win and hope that he wins. I couldn't vote for him after refusing a million times to answer the court packing question.

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50 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Finally voted for Jorgensen, pretty confident Biden will win and hope that he wins. I couldn't vote for him after refusing a million times to answer the court packing question.

This puzzled me at 1st, since you want Biden, but IIRC, you're in Cali. Though maybe that wasn't a consideration. No judgement. 

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5 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

I didn't include a way to confirm that people saying they aren't voting for Biden are all voting for Trump vs other/leave blank/stay home.

FWIW there's at least one leave it blank voter who is pretty confident in a Biden win.

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22 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

This puzzled me at 1st, since you want Biden, but IIRC, you're in Cali. Though maybe that wasn't a consideration. No judgement. 

It's a problem with the EC system, and yet still the perfect spot to promote the concept of needing a 3rd party. If you already know your state is going a certain way, what do you have to lose?

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I get it. This actually reminded me to check in with a sold blue state friend who I expect is doing the same thing (not necessarily re: court packing)

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1 hour ago, Mystery Achiever said:

This puzzled me at 1st, since you want Biden, but IIRC, you're in Cali. Though maybe that wasn't a consideration. No judgement. 

 

1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

It's a problem with the EC system, and yet still the perfect spot to promote the concept of needing a 3rd party. If you already know your state is going a certain way, what do you have to lose?

Bingo. If I lived in any swing or close state, I likely would have voted for Biden even with the court packing thing looming. But I don't. And I've always been more libertarian politically than Republican, so it's not that far of a leap to vote for her. I voted for Harry Browne back in the day. I did not vote for the Weld ticket that year, nor am I a Gary Johnson voter (Johnson's concerns were always utilitarian, mine different from that). I've voted for more libertarians than any other party (when I actually vote).

Edited by rockaction
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17 hours ago, rockaction said:

Finally voted for Jorgensen, pretty confident Biden will win and hope that he wins. I couldn't vote for him after refusing a million times to answer the court packing question.

I’m not confident Biden or Trump wouldn’t pack the court.  Hopefully neither do it but if that’s a deciding factor for me then it’s a wash with these 2.

Edited by AAABatteries

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18 hours ago, rockaction said:

 

Bingo. If I lived in any swing or close state, I likely would have voted for Biden even with the court packing thing looming. But I don't. And I've always been more libertarian politically than Republican, so it's not that far of a leap to vote for her. I voted for Harry Browne back in the day. I did not vote for the Weld ticket that year, nor am I a Gary Johnson voter 

Speaking of Johnsons, perhaps you are just trying to get Woody back in the building? :D;) 

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49 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Speaking of Johnsons, perhaps you are just trying to get Woody back in the building? :D;) 

:lmao: Of course I'd love that. Nothing like an actively involved owner. For sure.

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3 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I’m not confident Biden or Trump wouldn’t pack the court.  Hopefully neither do it but if that’s a deciding factor for me then it’s a wash with these 2.

I'm much less confident when the leaders of a specific party threaten to do so with the Supreme Court, however implicit the threat is. The DNCs broadcasting arm (MSNBC) seems all for it from the moments I catch television. That's how I know how to attribute it and who is suggesting it. That Biden won't give a straight answer about it is easily the nail in the coffin for a candidacy whose base movement is driven by elements that I do not support anyway (I've detailed my distaste for BLM and the like in my own and other threads).

I loathe Donald Trump. If I had to vote in a swing state, I would have voted Biden just to keep Trump out of office because I think he's such a threat to our democratic institutions that he must be stopped with the only lawful redress possible. But I don't live even remotely in a swing state. I get to vote my conscience. And my conscience tells me immediately from the Libertarian platform I'm way more at home with them. The only thing that I support with Biden is protection for Obamacare. Other than that, I'm not sanguine about four years of Biden/Harris, that's for sure. 

Edited by rockaction
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I think Biden isn't answering the court packing question because his answer is actually no, he won't be attempting that. He's not talking because he doesn't want to give Democrats/liberals another reason not to vote.

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“When Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress,” Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey tweeted shortly after Ginsburg’s death, “we must abolish the filibuster and expand the Supreme Court.”

Biden won't answer questions about his own party's ideas. Pelosi won't, either. That leads me to believe that it's entirely within the realm of possibility. That's enough for me, within my own realm, to firmly vote NO on that.

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43 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Biden won't answer questions about his own party's ideas. Pelosi won't, either. That leads me to believe that it's entirely within the realm of possibility. That's enough for me, within my own realm, to firmly vote NO on that.

I might refine this a trifle. Biden will happily answer questions about his party's ideas, which have almost nothing to do with their constituency's ideas

 

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48 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

I might refine this a trifle. Biden will happily answer questions about his party's ideas, which have almost nothing to do with their constituency's ideas

I should have given this the thinking emoji, as it caused me to think for a bit, but I went with the more generalized "like." I think this is a really good point, though probably best (and speaks to its assiduity) out of context, even.

*I had to look up assiduity to make sure, so this ain't highfalutin ####. It really is a refinement.

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22 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I should have given this the thinking emoji, as it caused me to think for a bit, but I went with the more generalized "like." I think this is a really good point, though probably best (and speaks to its assiduity) out of context, even.

*I had to look up assiduity to make sure, so this ain't highfalutin ####. It really is a refinement.

the ol' labor/teachers machine saw one last gasp when Iowa wouldnt give Peteyjudge a timely, declarative W and SCarolina gave him a flat "no", and Sanders & Warren wouldnt coalition to trump the power grab. dunno how they got Mayor Pete (maybe he "good of the party"ed it), but they offered Klobuchar VP (which got cancelled by BLM) to stand down before Super Tuesday and now its looking like they hit the jackpot. those folk dont care about platform, only self-perpetuation.

but the 25% of America they represent is as left as Tea Party was right. what the right doesnt understand is that "not Republican" doesnt equal "Democrat". most of your "sworn enemies" know they're not you, but dont know precisely what they are. at any one time, one-third to one-half of this country is up for grabs.

Edited by wikkidpissah

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2 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

the ol' labor/teachers machine saw one last gasp when Iowa wouldnt give Peteyjudge a timely, declarative W and SCarolina gave him a flat "no", and Sanders & Warren wouldnt coalition to trump the power grab. dunno how they got Mayor Pete (maybe he "good of the party"ed it), but they offered Klobuchar VP (which got cancelled by BLM) to stand down before Super Tuesday and now its looking like they hit the jackpot. those folk dont care about platform, only self-perpetuation.

but the 25% of America they represent is as left as Tea Party was right. what the right doesnt understand is that "not Republican" doesnt equal "Democrat". most of your "sworn enemies" know they're not you, but dont know precisely what they are.

That is based on speculation because Klobuchar said "we" or something when giving a speech about the Biden campaign. That's pretty weak.  

Also the delay in Iowa was not a conspiracy, just incompetence because they recently changed the rules for the caucuses and didn't communicate it properly.

This DNC conspiracy stuff is really silly.

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4 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

That is based on speculation because Klobuchar said "we" or something when giving a speech about the Biden campaign. That's pretty weak.  

Also the delay in Iowa was not a conspiracy, just incompetence because they recently changed the rules for the caucuses and didn't communicate it properly.

This DNC conspiracy stuff is really silly.

no, it's based on Klobuchar being constitutionally incapable of quitting the same day as (but behind) Buttigieg without sumn major in her pocket

 

ETA: and i didnt say Iowa was a conspiracy. perhaps i should have said "couldnt" instead of "wouldnt"

Edited by wikkidpissah

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I'm not super-confident, but think Biden is more likely to win and am voting for him

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I think this is going to be close.

Biden gets MI, WI, MN, PA, NV

Trump gets NC, GA, FL, TX, AZ, OH

Biden wins 277-261.

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I'm an independent with the following voting history:  HW Bush, Clinton, Clinton, W Bush, W Bush, McCain, Obama, Johnson (Couldn't vote for Hillary or Trump)

I'm truly as in the middle as can be, as I have beliefs pretty equally on both sides of the aisle.  I think the two party system weakens our country.  I don't feel like one party has done particularly better when in control than the other.  

That said, I am voting for Biden, and it isn't close for me.   Honestly, I don't remember ever being this invested in election in the past.  However, I still am of the belief that no matter who wins and when it is declared, I will wake up the next day, go about my business and try to continue living my life as happily as I can and treating others as well as I can.  

As for confidence, a few months ago, I thought that Trump was definitely going to win.  The last couple of weeks, I felt pretty good about Biden's chances.  Now, on election eve., I've got it extremely close, with Biden winning in my mind, but, it's at about 55% vs. 45% in my head.

To those that are much more passionate about their candidate and their party, I wish you luck and hope that you (and others like you) keep things under control.  I do worry a lot about how extreme the reactions are going to be, regardless of who wins.

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