Presidential Prediction - How Confident Are You? (1 Viewer)

[sho nuff]

court won't need to

Trump will win in rout and take the House and popular vote as well

Black and Hispanic voters are moving to Trump in historic numbers

Cuomo and deBlasio have put NY in play as well

stop believing misleading polls

Believe internet guy who provides no support of his claims instead?

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Oops. I found this thread before the other one. Didn't know I was voting on my confidence in a Biden win LOL. Looking at the other thread, I sort of thought the whole idea in the "out of 100" thing was to measure confidence.

Anyhoo, I'm predicting a Trump win with the 3rd option confidence level. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

court won't need to

Trump will win in rout and take the House and popular vote as well

Black and Hispanic voters are moving to Trump in historic numbers

Cuomo and deBlasio have put NY in play as well

stop believing misleading polls

It’s not just the polls. I have faith in humanity.

I’ll be fine regardless of the election results, but a Trump rout will definitely change my worldview for the worse. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Believe internet guy who provides no support of his claims instead?

Internet guy > so called experts.  It's been that way for centuries.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Extremely confident Biden wins. It isn't close. This election is nothing like 2016.

Not confident at all. If it was a normal election year, Biden would get posterized by any incumbent with a pulse. He probably doesn't even come back to win the primary. But we live in interesting times.

 

[Jayrod]

I voted not confident at all.

I pay attention more than the average voter, but a lot less than most in the PSF.

I have no clue how this will shake out, but I'm not worried either way.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Well in Pennsylvania, Rasmussen's last poll (10/18-10/19) had Biden up 3% with a 3.5% margin of error.  So Trump is within the margin of error.  But that was before the last debate when Biden, IMO, lost PA with his oil industry comments since Pennsylvania is a big fracking state.  Trafalgar's latest poll (10/24-10/25) has Trump leading by almost 1% point with 1% still undecided.  Those polls are closer to what I'm seeing on the ground here in Pennsylvania.  When I see CNN with Biden +10% or Quinnipiac with Biden +8%, I can say with absolute confidence, those polls are extremely inaccurate.

I can't speak to the other states.

Same situation with multiple polls that have Biden +10% in MI. Trafalgar has Trump +3%

Obama won that state +10% in 2012 and much bigger in 2008. But on the ground, I would say you should be cutting these estimated leads in half and that's probably much closer to the actual number in MI, WI, PA.

 

[Da Guru]

I voted not confident at all.

I pay attention more than the average voter, but a lot less than most in the PSF.

I have no clue how this will shake out, but I'm not worried either way.

Really not worried about whoever wins.   Trumps wins I will go about my life the same way.  Biden wins I will go about my life the same way. In the big picture we really have zero control.  So whoever wins do not let it bother your day to day life.

 

[Manster]

Not confident at all...

I think Biden wins because I voted for Trump in '16, and I can no longer in good faith, vote for the man.....i think there are a lot of people who feel like I do.

Maybe I'm dead wrong.....maybe it's all been a conspiracy to take him down from the beginning.........but the thing is, he hasn't drained the swamp, and he hasn't given me confidence AT ALL in the way he approaches the job of POTUS.....he has consistently created more chaos, instead of leading while still trying to obtain his goals.  At best he's approached the job like he would any business deal.....at worst, he's abused executive power, and set a scary precedent.

 

[Chickenwang]

Not confident at all...

I think Biden wins because I voted for Trump in '16, and I can no longer in good faith, vote for the man.....i think there are a lot of people who feel like I do.

Maybe I'm dead wrong.....maybe it's all been a conspiracy to take him down from the beginning.........but the thing is, he hasn't drained the swamp, and he hasn't given me confidence AT ALL in the way he approaches the job of POTUS.....he has consistently created more chaos, instead of leading while still trying to obtain his goals.  At best he's approached the job like he would any business deal.....at worst, he's abused executive power, and set a scary precedent.

So let's vote for someone who is the swamp.   Such a swell idea 

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I get less confident I know anything as we near the election.

I'm now nearing the Mike Tyson Zone where I don't think I'd be surprised by much of anything. 

I'd be surprised if Trump wins comfortably. Very surprised. I wouldn't be surprised by any other outcome.

 

[sho nuff]

So let's vote for someone who is the swamp.   Such a swell idea 

That is what a vote for Trump has proven to be...a vote for the swamp.  He has filled it with far more bad actors than those before him.

 

[Manster]

So let's vote for someone who is the swamp.   Such a swell idea 

Yea I know, it sucks.......we have two sucky choices

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

If Trump wins I'll be shocked. In part because most of the media and polls predict a Biden win.

Trump won in 2016 and I was shocked because most of the media and polls predicted a Clinton win.

Insert "Shocked. Well, not that shocked." meme here.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Really not worried about whoever wins.   Trumps wins I will go about my life the same way.  Biden wins I will go about my life the same way. In the big picture we really have zero control.  So whoever wins do not let it bother your day to day life.

This is a good outlook and one that I’m going to take.  At the end of the day, it’s not like Trump being president has had a negative impact on my life.  I don’t like him as a human being but  .  
ETA - and it’s not like I love the alternative